(u*) is the level at which the full employment of the labor force, i.e. the most effective and rational use of it. This means that all people who want to work find work. The natural rate of unemployment is therefore called unemployment rate at full employment, and the real output corresponding to the natural rate of unemployment is called natural volume release. Since full employment of the labor force means that there is only frictional and structural unemployment in the economy, the natural rate of unemployment can be calculated as the sum of frictional and structural unemployment rates:
Wireless level natural. (u*) = Lvl. Fritz. (u frits) + Lvl. struct. (u struct)
Lvl. eating. (u*) =
The current name for this indicator is non-inflationary unemployment rate – NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment). NAIRU - focuses on the fact that this steady unemployment rate stabilizes inflation.
Consider the graph of economic growth and the economic cycle.
Each point on the trend depicting economic growth corresponds to the value of potential GDP or the state of full employment of resources (points B and C). And each point on the sinusoid representing the economic cycle corresponds to the value of actual GDP (points A and D). If actual output exceeds potential(point A), i.e. the actual unemployment rate is below the natural rate, this means that aggregate demand exceeds aggregate output. This is the situation overemployment.
E 
If the economy is at the level of potential output (trending), which corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment, inflation does not accelerate. .
The natural rate of unemployment changes over time. So, in the early 60s, it was 4% of the workforce, and now 6% -7%. Cause growth quantities natural level unemployment is an increase duration time search work, when people are unemployed, which is due to:
increase in payments unemployment benefits;
increase in payment time unemployment benefits;
rising proportion of women in the labor force;
an increase in the share of youth in the labor market.
The first two factors make it possible to search for a job for more than
long period of time. The last two factors, which signify a change in the age and sex structure of the labor force, increase the number of people who first appeared on the labor market and are looking for work, and, consequently, increase the number of unemployed, increase competition in the labor market and lengthen the job search period.
Natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate under normal sustainable economy around which the actual unemployment rate fluctuates. The actual unemployment rate is less than its natural rate during the boom (point A in Fig. 1) and exceeds its natural rate during the recession (point D in Fig. 2).
The unemployment rate equal to the difference between the actual unemployment rate and the natural unemployment rate is the third type of unemployment and is called cyclical unemployment.
Cyclical unemployment represents deviations from the natural rate of unemployment associated with short-term fluctuations in economic activity.
Cyclical unemployment is unemployment, cause which is recession(recession) in the economy when actual GDP is less than potential. This means that there is an underemployment of resources in the economy, and the actual unemployment rate is higher than the natural(point D in Fig. 2). In modern conditions, the existence of cyclical unemployment is associated both with the insufficiency of total spending in the economy (low aggregate demand) and with a reduction in aggregate supply. The cyclical form of unemployment is characteristic of the phases of depression and recession of the economic cycle, i.e. for periods of downturn in business activity. With the transition to recovery and recovery, the number of unemployed becomes smaller. According to Western economists, during periods of economic ups and downs, the value of cyclical unemployment can range from 0 to 10% or more. It was the cyclical decline in production that served as the main cause of unemployment during the years of the Great Depression of 1929-1933. During that period, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a high mark - 25%.
Actual unemployment rate calculated as a percentage of the total number of unemployed (frictional + structural + cyclical) to the total labor force, or as the sum of unemployment rates of all types.
u fact. = u Fritz. + u struct. + u cycle.
Since the sum of frictional and structural unemployment equals the natural unemployment rate, the actual unemployment rate is equal to the sum of the natural unemployment rate and the cyclical unemployment rate:
u fact. = u * + u cycle.
The cyclical unemployment rate can be either positive value – in recession (recession) when the actual unemployment rate is higher than its natural rate and there is underemployment of resources, and negative value – boom when the actual unemployment rate is less than the natural unemployment rate and there is overemployment resources.
There are many other types of unemployment in the literature that characterize its individual features and aspects: technological, conversion, youth, voluntary, forced, hidden, partial, institutional, stagnant, etc.
Technological Unemployment occurs with the transition to a new generation of technical support for production, for example: when automating production, fewer jobs are required, which increases the number of unemployed.
Conversion unemployment is associated with a reduction in production during the transition to the production of new products or with a change in the structure of demand for labor.
Youth unemployment is due to the fact that graduates of higher or secondary specialized educational institutions do not find demand for their work due to lack of qualifications, work experience or other reasons.
Voluntary unemployment is the unwillingness to work for certain categories of people, for example, for a number of people belonging to the marginal strata of society, or for housewives in certain conditions.
forced Unemployment occurs when a worker, having a desire to work, is deprived of the opportunity to do so.
Hidden unemployment includes those employed during a part-time or part-time workday, as well as those who are formally employed when the employee is only on the payroll. The category also includes employees on forced leave without pay. . The features of hidden unemployment include the following: 1. this type of unemployment can at any time turn into an open form; 2. The scale of hidden unemployment is very difficult to determine. Hidden unemployment is generated by various reasons: - Deep disruption of the functioning of market mechanisms. In a command economy, the formal elimination of unemployment was associated with the maintenance of excess employment in enterprises. For example, if two employees in an enterprise use half of their real capabilities, then one workplace is superfluous; - transformational processes in society, involving the transition from one type of economic system to another type. Hidden unemployment in modern Russia peaked at the very beginning of the reforms, a period when the working conditions of the business sector fundamentally changed. Businesses need time to adapt. The reduction in production capacity in the country in that period amounted to 40-60%. Many firms were forced to send part of the workers on leave without pay and switch to a reduced work schedule: three days a week or a four-hour working day instead of an eight-hour one; - a hidden form of unemployment can also be generated by purely economic reasons, i.e. the mechanisms of the market. As a result of competition, inefficient enterprises experience the greatest difficulties. The bankruptcy of an enterprise may be the result of an incorrect assessment of the market segment, the production of low-quality products, or a switch in customer demand for a substitute product.
Partial Unemployment is the employment of a worker not full-time.
institutional Unemployment occurs as a result of insufficiently efficient organization of the labor market. In Russia, the work of labor exchanges is predominantly passive and focused on the payment of unemployment benefits. Vigorous activity, involving the study of the labor market situation, forecasting its development, retraining and retraining of workers, is poorly represented in the activities of Russian labor exchanges.
Long-term unemploymentincludes people who for a long time cannot find a job. The size of this form of unemployment is insignificant (according to the ILO, it is less than 1%), in terms of the degree of negative consequences, long-term unemployment has no equal. The unemployed are losing their professional skills and more than half of these unemployed are in need of social and psychological rehabilitation. The reason for the stagnant form of unemployment is the lack of demand for certain professions. This problem is typical for small towns or settlements focused on a certain production. In world practice, long-term unemployment is considered to last more than a year. In Russia, there is no unambiguous definition and justification for long-term unemployment. The literature suggested various differentiations of long-term unemployment by duration: "long-term" - from 4 to 8 months, "long-term" - from 8 to 18 months, "stagnant" - over 18 months. The problem of long-term unemployment is relevant all over the world.
Unemployment in its most general form represents the underutilization of available labor resources. Otherwise, we can say that unemployment is such a state of the labor market, when a part of people who are able and willing to work for hire cannot find a job.
According to the ILO methodology, the unemployed category includes able-bodied citizens who do not have a job at the time of the statistical survey (registered with the employment service), looking for work and ready to start it immediately.
Unemployment is measured through the indicator level or unemployment rates(u), which is calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed (registered or identified in the survey) to the total labor force. The labor force (L) represents the totality of employed (E) and unemployed (U) and characterizes the economically active part of the country's able-bodied population: L = E + U.
The formula for calculating the unemployment rate is:
An important indicator of labor statistics is also the indicator labor force participation rate. It reflects the proportion of the working-age population present in the labor market, and is calculated as the ratio of the labor force to the total working-age population, expressed as a percentage:
The number of unemployed registered with the employment service characterizes the explicit form of unemployment. Officially registered unemployment cannot cover all the unemployed. A sample survey of families is used to identify all unregistered unemployed.
Since there are various theoretical approaches to the analysis of the mechanism of the functioning of the labor market, various explanations for the reasons for the existence of unemployment are also proposed. As shown in the third question of topic 11, according to classical economists, competition in the labor market excludes involuntary unemployment, when skilled workers who are willing to work for the existing wage rate cannot find work. The classics argue that unemployment is voluntary (workers demand too high wages and prefer not to work for existing wages), state intervention in the market mechanism can lead to negative consequences. In the neoclassical approach, quantitatively, voluntary unemployment consists of unemployment resulting from the job search process, speculative unemployment and waiting unemployment.
Keynesian theory proceeds from the possibility of the existence of stable involuntary unemployment, due to the inflexibility of wages. According to Keynesian theory, the demand for labor is not regulated by fluctuations in market prices for labor, but is determined by aggregate demand and output, so state intervention is necessary to eliminate imbalance in the labor market.
Thus, the analysis of the labor market allows us to identify the following main possible causes of unemployment:
Inflexibility of the labor market;
Wage inflexibility;
Lack of total costs.
These reasons also determine various types of unemployment: frictional, structural, cyclical.
frictional unemployment is the result of the job search process and is due to the fact that it takes time for the employee to “meet” with his job. Therefore, there are always simultaneously unemployed people with certain skills and unfilled vacancies where their skills can be in demand. Frictional unemployment is generated by the actions of the workers themselves, changes in the structure of labor supply. It is voluntary and, as a rule, short-term.
Structural unemployment means the coexistence of a mismatch between unemployed and free vacancies. It is due to structural shifts in the economy, as a result of which the unemployed either do not have the right profession, or live in places that do not allow them to take vacancies. The line between structural and frictional unemployment is rather blurry. But structural unemployment is associated with changes in the structure of aggregate spending, and, consequently, in the structure of demand for labor. Structural unemployment is involuntary. An element of structural unemployment is considered seasonal unemployment, traditionally manifested in agriculture, construction and tourism.
Cyclical unemployment is a consequence of the insufficiency of aggregate demand in the phases of recession and depression of the business cycle, when there is a shortage of jobs in general, regardless of the specialty and qualifications of workers. Cyclical unemployment is involuntary.
Frictional and structural unemployment are inevitable for the economy. Cyclical unemployment can be overcome with the help of the state's macroeconomic policy. The sum of frictional and structural unemployment is natural rate of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment characterizes full employment rate in the economy. The real GDP achieved at the natural rate of unemployment is called the productive potential of the economy, or in short, potential GDP. The natural rate of unemployment is not constant.
If the unemployment rate is higher than natural, the actual GDP is less than the potential. The underproduced potential volume of goods and services, that is, the difference between the actual and potential volumes of national production, is lost irrevocably and constitutes the economic cost of unemployment. The relationship between the unemployment rate and the lost volume of GDP is revealed by Okun's law. In accordance with this law, if the actual unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate by 1%, then the lag in GDP is 2.5% (for the US economy). In general, Okun's law can be expressed by the formula:
where u is the actual unemployment rate, u* is the natural unemployment rate, β is the Okun coefficient (individual for each economy, but always greater than 1), Y is the actual GDP, Y* is the potential GDP.
Unemployment has not only economic, but also social costs - the loss of qualifications by the unemployed, the breakdown of families, moral and psychological depression, social unrest, etc.
To the unemployed, in relation to the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO), includes persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, who in the period under review simultaneously met the following criteria:
- did not have a job (profitable occupation);
- engaged in job search, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the administration of the organization (employer), used personal connections, etc. or took steps to start their own business;
- were ready to start work during the survey week.
Schoolchildren, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.
The unemployed registered with state institutions of the employment service include able-bodied citizens who do not have a job and earnings (labor income), residing on the territory of the Russian Federation, registered with the employment service at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start her.
Unemployment rate— the ratio of the number of unemployed in a certain age group to the number of the corresponding age group, %.
Unemployment rate formula
Unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in the total.
It is measured as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:
Unemployment statistics in Russia by years
The unemployment rate (the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the economically active population, %) is shown in fig. one.
Rice. 1. Dynamics of unemployment in Russia from 1992 to 2008
The minimum unemployment rate for the analyzed period was in 1992 - 5.2%. The unemployment rate reached its maximum value in 1998 - 13.2%. By 2007, the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, and in 2008 the unemployment rate increased to 6.3%. It should be noted that the problem of unemployment is most acute not in large regions as a whole, but at the local level: in small and medium-sized cities with a concentration of military and light industry, at unfinished construction sites of large enterprises, in the mining villages of the Far North, "closed" zones and etc.
Statistics and structure of unemployment in Russia
In a sociological study of unemployment, it is necessary to take into account its structure, in which they distinguish (Fig. 2):
- open unemployment - it is formed by status unemployed registered at labor exchanges, in employment centers at the place of residence. In 2009, their number was 2,147,300;
- hidden unemployment, which covers non-status unemployed, i.e. persons who do not have a job or are looking for it, but are not registered on the stock exchanges and employment centers. Their number in 2009 was 1,638,900 people.
The form of unemployment determines the economic behavior of the individual and his level of individual and social mobility in employment and professions.
Rice. 2. Structure of unemployment
Rate and extent of unemployment
In 1999 (i.e., after the 1998 crisis), the total number of unemployed reached its maximum for the entire period of economic reforms and amounted to 9.1 million (Table 1). In the second quarter of 1999, the negative trend towards an increase in the total number of unemployed in Russia was overcome. By 2008, it had dropped to 4.6 million people; At the same time, there were approximately 1.6 million officially registered unemployed.
The threat of job loss, unemployment in society since 1992 is the most stable among other types of threats to the security of the individual in Russia.
According to VTsIOM sociological surveys, the threat of rising unemployment in Russian society was noted by: 24% of the population in 1996 (February), 27% in 2000 (November), 28% in 2003 (October), 14% in 2007.
One of features of unemployment in Russia- its gender structure. The proportion of women among the registered unemployed in 2006 was 65%, and in a number of northern regions - 70-80%.
The financial and economic crisis has led to increased tender competition in the labor market and increased discrimination against women in the registered market.
Table 1. Dynamics of changes in the structure of the Russian unemployed in 1992-2009
Regarding unemployment in Russia, we can say the following:
- unemployment remains high;
- in the socio-professional structure of the unemployed, the share of students, pupils and pensioners has significantly decreased since 1992, but in 2009 there has been an upward trend;
- the number of unemployed in rural areas increased sharply: from 16.8% in 1992 to 32.4% in 2009;
- female unemployment has changed its vector.
Among the status unemployed, the majority are women, among the non-status - men.
Unemployment is acquiring a gender-symmetrical age. Thus, among men, the average age of the unemployed is 34.2 years, among women - 34.1 years. In general, the average age of the unemployed in Russian society is slowly decreasing: from 34.7 years in 2001 to 34.1 years in 2006.
The structure of Russian unemployment has also changed in terms of educational level, but the unemployed remain the most educated among the unemployed capitalist countries (Table 2). The educational asymmetry in the gender structure of the unemployed indicates that women predominate among the Russian unemployed with a high educational status, while men are the main low-skilled part of the unemployed population.
Table 2. Gender and educational structure of the Russian unemployed in 2009, %
Features of the marital status of the Russian unemployed are visible from Table. 3. Most of the registered (status) unemployed are married women. There are 1.5 times more widowed and divorced among unemployed women than among men. Among the unemployed, there are significantly more unmarried men than unmarried women.
Table 3. Gender and family characteristics of the Russian unemployed at the end of 2009, %
The highest share among the unemployed by age falls on young people aged 20-24 (21.8%). Here the gender feature does not play a significant role (22.3% among men, 21.2% among women). The general dynamics of the unemployed by age in the gender groups is shown in Fig. 4.3.
Rice. Fig. 3. Age and gender structure of unemployed Russians: 1 — men; 2-women
The group of the highest risk and the threat of becoming unemployed are young people aged 20 to 29 years. The highest growth of unemployment is characteristic of rural youth (2 times higher than in 1992).
Table 1 shows how the two components of the object of economic sociology, "employed" and "unemployed", are statistically related to each other in the category of "economically active population". 4.
AT financial and banking sector Before the financial crisis of 1998, the labor market was very dynamic and expanded rapidly, but after the financial crisis it drastically contracted and became seriously deformed, which was accompanied by a reduction in the number of employees (especially in the banking sector) and increased downward social mobility of specialists.
Social negative consequences of unemployment associated with the transition of an individual from one status state (employed) to another (unemployed) manifest themselves: in the form of increased depression, a decrease in the level of social optimism, a break in established communication ties, a change in value orientations, a transition to a marginal state. The main thing is that the individual is deprived of the material base of his development, the level and quality of his life are falling.
Table 4. The structure of the economically active population of Russia in 2008, million people
Duration of unemployment(or the duration of the job search) is an important socio-psychological indicator and represents the time during which a person who has lost his job is looking for a new job opportunity, using any means for this.
The most widely used forms of job search are:
- appeal to the state, to the commercial employment service;
- submission of advertisements to the press, response to advertisements;
- appeal to friends, relatives, acquaintances;
- direct appeal to the administration, the employer - Internet search and initiative distribution of resumes to the addresses of potential employers - a form of employment used mainly by the unemployed age groups from 20-24 to 40-44 years.
The average duration of the search for a new job was: 4.4 months. in 1992; 9.7 months in 1999; 7.7 months in 2008. This is a rather long period, which is explained by competition in the labor and employment market, as well as its limitations, especially in the regions.
One of the most acute and negative socio-economic phenomena - unemployment. A situation in which a significant part of the working-age population is looking for, but cannot find, a job is fraught with a number of serious consequences. In political and social terms, this is a great stress for society, leading to an increase in popular discontent. From the point of view of the economy, unemployment speaks of inefficient and incomplete use of labor and production resources. But with all this, it is impossible to completely get rid of unemployment, some natural level of unemployment will always remain.
Concept of unemployment and economically active population
(unemployment) - the presence in the country of a part of the economically active population that is willing and able to work, but cannot find work.
Economically active population- residents of the country who have an independent source of livelihood, or desire and potentially can have it.
- employed (employees, entrepreneurs);
- unemployed.
Synonymous with the concept of the economically active population is the term - work force (labor power).
Unemployed- a person aged 10-72 years, according to the ILO definition (in Russia, aged 15-72 years according to the methodology of Rosstat), who, as of the date of the study:
- had no job;
- but he was looking for her;
- and was ready to get started.
Indicators of the unemployment rate and its duration
One of the most important indicators characterizing the phenomenon of unemployment is its level and duration.
Unemployment rate- the share of unemployed in the total number of economically active population of a certain age group.
where: u – unemployment rate;
U is the number of unemployed;
L is the economically active population.
An important concept is the natural rate of unemployment, "natural" because even under the most favorable economic conditions there will be a small, but some percentage of the unemployed. These are people who can, but do not want to work (for example, they have profitable investments and live on interest, as you know).
Natural rate of unemployment- the unemployment rate at full employment of the labor force.
That is, this is the percentage of unemployed in a situation where everyone who wants to work can find a job. This can be achieved under the condition of the most rational and efficient use of labor.
Full employment of the economically active population implies the existence of only structural and frictional unemployment in the country. Therefore, the natural rate of unemployment can be calculated as their sum:
where: u * – natural unemployment rate;
u Fritz. – the level of frictional unemployment;
u struct. – the level of structural unemployment;
U Fritz – the number of frictional unemployed;
U struct. – the number of structural unemployed;
L is the labor force (economically active population).
Duration of unemployment- the period during which a person is looking for and cannot find a job (that is, he is unemployed).
Frictional, structural, cyclical and other forms of unemployment
The following are the most important forms of unemployment :
1. Friction- Unemployment due to the voluntary search for a new better job by an employee.
In this case, the employee deliberately quits his previous job and looks for another, with more attractive working conditions for him.
2. Structural- Unemployment caused by changes in the structure of demand for labor, as a result of which there is a discrepancy between the requirements for applicants for vacant jobs and the qualifications of the unemployed.
The causes of structural unemployment can be: the elimination of obsolete professions, changes in production technology, a large-scale restructuring of the entire economic system of the state.
There are two types of structural unemployment:
- destructive- with negative consequences;
- stimulating- encouraging employees to improve their skills, retrain for more modern and popular professions, etc.
3. Cyclic- unemployment caused by a decline in production during the corresponding
In addition, there are other types of unemployment :
a) voluntary- caused by the unwillingness of people to work, for example, with a decrease in wages.
b) forced(waiting unemployment) - occurs when people are able and willing to work at a given level of wages, but they cannot find work.Voluntary unemployment is especially high during the phase of the economic peak or boom. When the economy is in recession, its level decreases.
c) seasonal- unemployment characteristic of some sectors of the economy, where the need for labor depends on the time of year (season).The reason for involuntary unemployment, for example, may be the inflexibility of the labor market in relation to wages (the struggle of trade unions for high wages, the establishment of a minimum wage by the state). Some workers are ready to work for a small salary, but the employer simply cannot arrange them under such conditions. Therefore, he will hire fewer workers, more skilled and at higher wages.
For example, in the agricultural industry during sowing or harvesting.
d) technological- Unemployment caused by mechanization and automation of production, as a result of which the productivity of the ore increases dramatically and fewer jobs with a higher level of qualification are required.
e) registered- Unemployment characterizing the unemployed economically active population, officially registered in this capacity.
e) hidden- Unemployment, actually existing, but not officially recognized.
An example of hidden unemployment can be the presence of persons who are formally employed, but actually not working (during a recession, many production facilities are idle and the labor force is not fully utilized). Or it can be people who want to work, but are not registered at the labor exchange.
g) marginal- Unemployment of poorly protected social strata (women, youth, disabled people).
h) unstable temporary unemployment.
For example, layoffs in seasonal sectors of the economy after the end of the “hot” season, or people voluntarily changing their jobs.
i) institutional- Unemployment provoked by the intervention of trade unions or the state in the establishment of wages, which as a result becomes different from what could be formed in a natural way.
Causes and consequences of unemployment
There are many factors that can trigger an increase in unemployment. The following main causes of unemployment:
1. Structural improvements in the economy- the emergence and introduction of new technologies and equipment can lead to a reduction in jobs (machines "force out" a person).
2. Seasonal fluctuations- temporary changes in the level of production and provision of services (and, accordingly, the number of jobs) in certain industries.
3. Cyclical economy- during a recession or crisis, the need for resources, including labor, decreases.
4. Demographic change- in particular, the growth of the working-age population can lead to the fact that the demand for jobs will grow faster than their supply, which will lead to unemployment.
5. Wage policy- Measures by the state, trade unions or company management to increase the minimum wage can cause an increase in production costs and a decrease in the need for labor.
The situation where the working-age population cannot find work is not harmless, and there may be serious consequences of unemployment
1. Economic impact:
- reduction in federal budget revenues - the higher unemployment, the lower tax revenues (in particular from);
- an increase in the costs of society - the burden of supporting the unemployed falls on society, represented by the state: the payment of benefits, financing the professional retraining of the unemployed, etc.;
- declining living standards - people who become unemployed and their families lose personal income, and their quality of life is reduced;
- under-received output - as a result of incomplete use of the labor force, there may be a lag in actual GDP from potential.
Okun's Law Show
Okun's Law (Okun's law) is named after the American economist Arthur Melvin Okun.
It says: the excess of the unemployment rate over the natural unemployment rate by 1% causes a decrease in real GDP relative to the level of potential GDP by 2.5% (derived for the United States in the 1960s; today, numerical values may be different for other countries).
where: Y - actual GDP;
Y * - potential GDP,
u cycle. - the level of cyclical unemployment;
β is an empirical sensitivity factor (usually 2.5 is taken). Each economy (country), depending on the period, will have its own value of the coefficient β.
2. Non-economic consequences:
- aggravation of the crime situation - more thefts, robberies, etc.;
- stressful load on society - job loss is a great personal tragedy for a person, severe psychological stress;
- political and social unrest - mass unemployment can cause an acute social reaction (rallies, strikes, pogroms) and lead to violent political changes.
Galyautdinov R.R.
© Copying material is allowed only if you specify a direct hyperlink to
Population= Labor force + Not labor force
Not labor force: children under 16; persons serving sentences in prisons; people in psychiatric hospitals and people with disabilities, people who do not want or cannot work and are not looking for work, full-time students; retired; housewives; vagabonds; people who have stopped looking for work Labor force = Employed + Unemployed
L=E+U
Cyclical unemployment associated with the rise and fall of production.
Structural unemployment caused by a mismatch between the structure of demand and supply of labor.
frictional unemployment associated with the voluntary transfer of workers from one job to another.
The frictional unemployed include:
1) dismissed from work by order of the administration;
2) resigned of their own free will;
3) awaiting reinstatement in their previous jobs;
4) those who have found a job, but have not yet started it;
5) seasonal workers (out of season);
6) people who first appeared on the labor market and have the level of professional training and qualifications required in the economy.
Actual unemployment rate
Frictional Unemployment Rate = FB / L
Structural Unemployment Rate = SAT/L
Natural Unemployment Rate = FB + SSB
Unemployment rate
Natural Unemployment Rate = Frictional Unemployment Rate + Structural Unemployment Rate
There are 146,000 unemployed in country A. The employment rate is 90%. This month, 50,000 people were fired, of which 10,000 decided not to look for work yet. In the same month, 100 thousand people were demobilized from the ranks of the country's Armed Forces. conscripts. Of these, 30,000 decided to enter higher educational institutions, 40,000 decided to find a job, and the rest decided to take a break and think about the future. How and how much has the unemployment rate changed in a given month?
Unemployment rate 10% (100 - 90).
The level of the working-age population: L = 146 / 0.1 = 1460 thousand people
The unemployed are people who are not working but looking for a job.
U1 = 50 - 10 = 40 (structural unemployment)
U2 = 40 - from among the military who decided to look for a job (frictional unemployment)
U = 40 + 40 = 80 thousand
Unemployment rate in Russia
| Year | Unemployed, thousand people | Number of economically active population, thousand people | Unemployment rate, % |
| 2000 | 7699.5 | 72770.0 | 10.6 |
| 2001 | 6423.7 | 71546.6 | 9.0 |
| 2002 | 5698.3 | 72357.1 | 7.9 |
| 2003 | 5933.5 | 72273.0 | 8.2 |
| 2004 | 5666.0 | 72984.7 | 7.8 |
| 2005 | 5242.0 | 73581.0 | 7.1 |
| 2006 | 5250.2 | 74418.9 | 7.1 |
| 2007 | 4518.6 | 75288.9 | 6.0 |
| 2008 | 4697.0 | 75700.1 | 6.2 |
| 2009 | 6283.7 | 75694.2 | 8.3 |
| 2010 | 5544.2 | 75477.9 | 7.3 |
| 2011 | 4922.4 | 75779.0 | 6.5 |
| 2012 | 4130.7 | 75676.1 | 5.5 |
| 2013 | 4137.4 | 75528.9 | 5.5 |
| 2014 | 3889.4 | 75428.4 | 5.2 |
| 2015 | 4100 | 75500 | 5.8 |
| 2016 | 4200 | 76600 | 5.5 |
| 2017 | 4000 | 72100 | 5.2 |
| 2018 |
State measures to combat unemployment
- Internship (graduates of schools, colleges and universities);
- Retraining (training);
- Vocational training (change of type of activity);
- Creating your own business (self-employment);
- Public and temporary works;
- Moving to another area for the purpose of temporary employment.
Unemployment and potential GDP
The American economist Arthur Okun formulated the law: the excess of the actual unemployment rate by 1% of its natural level leads to a lag in the volume of actual GNP from the potential (at full employment) GNP - by 2.5% (Oaken's coefficient).
GNP deficit= Real unemployment rate - natural unemployment rate
GNP Deficit = Actual Unemployment - Natural Unemployment
The real GNP in this year was V. The potential GNP was V. The actual unemployment rate was u%. Find the approximate value of the natural unemployment rate if the Okun coefficient is equal to k = 2.5.
Okun's law:(V-V")/V = -k(u-u")
where
V* - potential GNP;
V - real GNP;
u* - natural unemployment;
u - actual unemployment;
k - Okun's coefficient.
