The euro exchange rate will fall or. What will happen to the dollar, ruble and euro before the end of the year? Currency forecast

Being the most popular and most liquid currency pair, it attracts the attention of financial professionals around the world who develop their own trading plans on this particular instrument. A novice investor will always be able to find a lot of sufficiently high-quality analytics, and an experienced player will receive a stable and liquid instrument for increasing capital.

Euro-Dollar forecast (online) for today

The euro/dollar forecast has a different timeframe and value. It is best to pay attention to the strongest forecast − Actively buy or Actively sell. In addition, it should be said that a strong signal will be the repetition of one signal on all timeframes.

Forecast Euro - Dollar compiled on the basis of many technical analysis and does not include fundamentals.

Euro to Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate for today and for all time

Visually examining the euro dollar exchange rate chart, you can see that the quote trades well price levels, as if giving the opportunity to get out of losing position with minimal losses even to the most leisurely trader. In general, the EUR/USD chart is a reference in terms of technology for all other banknotes of developed countries.

general characteristics

The currency pair is an extremely popular instrument.

More than a third of the total trading volume on foreign exchange market fall on the Euro-Dollar quotation.

This is due to the size of the economy national currencies.

The base currency is the euro, the dollar is the quoted currency. That is, the euro dollar exchange rate indicates how many dollars you need to pay for one euro.

• If positive news comes out in America, and you predict the growth of the dollar, then you need to quote sell.
• If you predict the growth of the European currency against the dollar, then you need to quote buy(in this case, the exchange rate rises as more and more dollars will have to be paid for 1 euro)

In the Forex market with a quote, they work with standard lots of 100,000 dollars. Brokers make it possible to trade fractional lots and work with extremely small volumes, up to 1 euro. Euro-Dollar futures are traded in lots of 1,000 euros with a margin of only 3,500 rubles.

Factors of influence on EUR USD and what the Rate depends on

The main factors of influence that can change the EUR USD quotes are concentrated around the monetary policy of the United States. There are several levers that help the Fed regulate and change the flow of cash in every possible way:

• Interventions on open market;
• Increase or decrease in the discount rate;
• Managing the level of reserve requirements.

The Fed Board can directly change reserve requirements and discount rate. A special committee works with open market operations. By resorting to changes in one of three factors, the Fed affects the amount of funds and, ultimately, changes the physical relationship between the US dollar and other currencies, including the euro. Thus, the decisions of the Fed are priority factors in long term the existence of the EURUSD currency pair.

The primary factor influencing the EUR/USD is the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System on public funds. This is the indicator by which credit organizations(banks) pay interest on a daily loan. The US financial regulator changes the interest rate when a tightening or weakening of the national currency is required. Traditionally, such actions have a significant impact on both the currency and stock markets.

European Central Bank or abbreviated « ECB regulates the monetary policy of the EU countries. The main decisions on the supply of the European currency are made by the board, which is formed from representatives of the national banks of the EU member states.

The primary goal of the ECB's work is financial stability and the full overcoming of the consequences of the global financial crisis 2008.

Like most reserve currencies, the euro/dollar reacts appropriately to political instability. As an example, we can cite changes in the composition of parliaments and cabinets of ministers in countries such as Great Britain, France or Germany.

serious financial difficulties of all EU members may have a negative impact on the euro exchange rate. This can be seen from the dynamics of prices for the euro at economic crisis in Greece and Spain. The release of macroeconomic statistics is also very important factor, affecting the strengthening or weakening of the European currency.

The most important news comes from Germany. This is due to the fact that Germany is the largest economy in the European Union, leaving the UK and France in second and third place. The most important information is the state of the gross national product(GNP), indicators of theoretical and real inflation, growth ratesor fall industrial production and unemployment claims rates. In Germany, the lion's share of statistics falls into the majority of published financial market indicators. It is important to take into account the budget deficit and the effectiveness of the current measures against recession in the economy.

How to profitably trade Euro-Dollar

There is a strong inverse correlation between the EUR/USD quotes and showing the approximate relationship between the euro and the franc. This is related to the fact that financial condition Switzerland itself is very dependent on the economic and political developments of the European Union. Most often, a decline in the euro/dollar is followed by an immediate collapse in the EUR/CHF. In rare exceptions, the situation repeats itself, but already exactly the opposite. Also, a significant correlation is observed with the pair due to the correlation of the pound with the euro.

In order to make money on the euro-dollar, a trader will need some skill. Quick deals on 15 or even five minutes allow you to get a noticeable profit. A high degree of trade and excellent liquidity makes the euro\dollar the most popular instrument on the international currency market.

Frequent fluctuations of this quote allow you to implement the most daring and risky trading strategies. , or combined indicators (such as ) can give reasonably accurate entry points. Exiting positions can traditionally be based on breaking through the price channel. When working with charts of 1 day or more, exiting a position and reversing it can also be carried out based on the intersection of moving averages.

Example

For trading, we chose a broker and a derivative financial instrument- . Only here you can get the maximum profit with the simplest analysis of the euro-dollar exchange rate.

The thing is that in order to make money on options, it is only necessary to determine the future direction of the quote. Options have a fixed profit, which does not depend on the level of price change.

Let's start with an asset:

Specify the option expiration time:

We conducted a small analysis, compared the forecast for the euro dollar and came to the conclusion that the quote EUR/USD will continue to fall in the near future. In the option conditions, we entered the amount and pressed the button DOWN — fall forecast:

Features of the EURUSD currency pair

The Euro-Dollar has a so-called cross rate effect. The euro dollar exchange rate is often influenced by price changes in currency pairs in which the dollar is not present ( e.g. EUR/CAD or EUR/AUD). The rate may decrease due to the release of positive statistics and news from Japan, which will be transmitted through the movement of the EUR/JPY pair.

The greatest trading activity falls on two trading sessions in a row - American and European, but often the peak of trading occurs during the intersection trading sessions from 16:00 to 18:00 Moscow time.

The main feature is the ease of forecasting a currency pair due to the huge flow of information, at the same time, thanks to it, it is often difficult for a trader to determine the direction due to the dominance of news. Nevertheless currency pair Euro-Dollar is an indicator for many strategies due to its volatility and liquidity.

If you find an error, please highlight a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter.

What is the euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow?

Euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow is 77.14 rub., the minimum rate is 76.06, and the maximum is 78.22 rubles. The current Euro rate is 80.17. Today the rate is down 4.3% compared to yesterday's close at 83.77.

Will the Euro rise or fall in a week?

Euro exchange rate forecast in a week 83.44 rub., minimum 82.27, maximum 84.61 rub. Thus, for a week the Euro exchange rate will increase on 3.27 rub. relative to the exchange rate now at 80.17 rubles. See the table below for a more detailed forecast by day for the week.

What is the Euro exchange rate forecast for March?

Euro exchange rate forecast for March 73.13-91.90, at the end of March 90.63 rub. At the beginning of March, the Euro exchange rate was 73.75, i.e. the monthly change will be +22.9%.

What Euro exchange rate is predicted for April?

Euro exchange rate forecast for April - 94.26 rub. at the end of April, the minimum rate during the month is 89.62, the maximum is 95.58. Monthly change +4.0%.

Euro exchange rate forecast for every day in the table

What is the Euro forecast for May?

Euro exchange rate forecast for May is in the range of 94.26-99.32, at the end of May 97.95 rub. Monthly change +3.9%.

What Euro exchange rate is predicted until the end of 2020?

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2020 year: the rate will trade in the range of 89.62-101.48. Price forecast for the end of December 2020 96.87 rub.

What will the Euro rate be like in 2021?

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2021 year: exchange rate at the end of December 2021 - 92.26 rub. And during the year the rate will fluctuate in the range of 87.42-97.23.

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022

Currency Forecasts:

Despite the favorable forecasts of financiers for 2016-2017, the Russian economy is far from ideal. The global crisis, significant currency fluctuations and sanctions deal a serious blow to it. Economic instability and the slow rise of the ruble are forcing the public to save in euros. This currency is famous for its consistently high rates. And recent expert forecasts have shown that in 2018 (in the first half) the euro exchange rate in Russia will grow. This fact was confirmed by Sberbank of the Russian Federation. But will this trend continue?

Reasons for the instability of the euro

Experts' forecasts come true somewhere by 67-82%. It is rather difficult to say more precisely how the currency will behave, especially if the scenario is drawn up for a long period - a year or two. Why? Everything is simple. In the case of the European currency, its fluctuations directly depend on the demand for the dollar - the stabilization of one unit leads to a fall or slowdown in the growth of another. They are interconnected, so the circuit works in both directions. But the growth of the American currency is not the only reason for the euro jumps.

Experts make a forecast of the euro exchange rate for 2018, based on the state of the economy in the EU countries. The cultural, social, and political situation within the borders of these states is also important, because for holding financial transactions and calculations they use it. This means that the tense political situation in one of the EU states will lead to the loss of positions of the monetary unit. This is the situation in the world and Europe.

What happens to the European currency in Russia. It has gone up in value lately. Reasons for this:

• sanctions imposed on the state by the European Union;
• an increase in the price of fuel, the price of which increased by 11-14.5%;
• decline in oil exports to the West, as a result of its cheapening;
• prior inflation;
• the state of the Russian economy, etc.

As long as there are sanctions preventing free trade, there is no need to talk about the stability of the euro exchange rate. The price for 100€ will be prohibitive. Until Russia restores stable and regular supplies of oil to the West, the rate forecast will differ from reality.

What forecasts for 2018 do government experts make?

Leading economists of Russia and the Ministry of Finance do not predict sharp changes for the worse in the future. Despite the fact that it is extremely difficult to offer an exact scenario for the development of the exchange rate, according to analysts and officials, the value of the EU currency will fluctuate between 43-45 rubles. But such a price financial market been gone for over 5 years. Such a positive development scenario does not inspire confidence, especially if you study the tables of the behavior of the euro by months, which have already been posted on their pages big banks Russia.

Experts working in Sberbank predict the following scenario.

The forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, shows that in 2018 the euro exchange rate will continue to be unstable. The price for 1 € in the first months of next year will increase to the borders of 85-90 rubles. At the same time, future events in the world “hint” that this figure is far from the limit. The main news of August-September 2017 was the issue under consideration of Britain's exit from the EU. If the exception is implemented (more than half of the British voted for the country's exit from the European Union), there will be no need to talk about the stability of the price of the EU currency.

But still, analysts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are building optimistic scenarios, assuming an early end to the crisis situation in the foreign exchange market. Hence such low figures for the euro for the period of 2018, which ministry analysts announced in the hope that oil will rise in price by the middle of next year - the price is expected to rise to $80 per barrel. But analysts from independent Russian agencies offer the following oil forecasts for next year.

According to the table, the maximum rise in price, which should be expected at the very beginning of the year, is 60-65 per barrel.

What to expect: growth and depreciation of the euro?

The opinions of independent experts and economists differ. The discrepancies in the scenarios are up to 5-12 rubles. Many foreign experts believe that the EU currency rate will rise to the level of 100 rubles by mid-2018. This figure is due to the fact that Russian economy in the coming months, it will not be possible to raise due to existing sanctions and a decrease in the level of exports of goods. Although not all Western experts predict such a leap. Analysts of one of the largest banking holdings in the US - Morgan Stanley - see no reason for the euro to rise above the mark of 80 rubles. This is their latest forecast, based on the growth rate of the Russian economy. In 2018, growth will be at least 1.78%.

Despite disagreements in figures, both Russian and foreign analysts and economists are convinced that December 2017 and January next year will be months of active euro growth in Russia. Financial experts note that sharp jumps in the exchange rate are not expected, but they warn of a possible decrease in the cost if Russia manages to restore oil sales at a higher price. But still, you should not rely on the accuracy of the scenarios they offer.

Looking at a fresh analytical scenario, it is advised to take into account the situation in the country and the world, in particular in the EU. Economists recommend that those who have already saved a certain amount in euros, don't change it anytime soon. And for those Russians who would like to buy the currency, it is wiser to wait for the price to fall. It is predicted to be in November 2017 (a slight decrease in cost - by 2.4%) and from September 2018.

It is directly dependent on how the trading on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange went. According to these data, the Central Bank announces the current values. This happens at about 11.30 Moscow time. CB different countries use various techniques for generating official information.

The most recent data is considered to be the exchange rate data on this moment. It is these indicators that banks often use to maintain current indicators, so they can be used as the main criterion when buying or selling currency in exchangers. If a significant correction occurs between the hours of 11.30 am and the close of trading, the difference between the official, commercial, exchange rates will be significant.

How to find a favorable euro exchange rate?

We invite you to get acquainted with which banks have a favorable euro exchange rate. For convenience, the information is given:

• in the table;
• on the chart;
• official websites of banks.

You can easily go to the desired page with one click financial institution. We also show official data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. You can use them to identify the best data and calculate with a calculator.

Another popular service is presented on the site. With it, you can find out how the currency data has changed over the years, make your own personal forecast.

How to find out the commercial exchange rate of the euro?

This is where buying and selling takes place. foreign money. Everyone saw that at the entrance to the bank there is a board on which the current prices are displayed. A feature of the commercial rate is that the difference between buying and selling is greater than in the interbank market.

The euro exchange rate in exchange offices today also depends on the trust in this currency. If citizens prefer the euro in order to protect their savings, this leads to an increase in demand and an increase in the exchange rate. Movements can also depend on other factors ranging from natural Disasters ending with the statements of significant persons. Therefore, it is not always possible to predict the course for tomorrow or in the long term. Because of this, many people buy euros at a favorable rate, taking into account current indicators.

Euro(Eng. Euro) - the official currency of 19 countries of the Eurozone (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia). Euro is also the national currency of 9 more states, 7 of which are located in Europe. However, unlike the members of the eurozone, these countries cannot influence the monetary policy of the European Union. central bank and send representatives to its governing bodies. Thus, the euro is the single currency for more than 340 million Europeans. As of November 2013 in cash circulation was 951 billion euros, which made this currency the owner of the highest total value of cash circulating around the world, ahead of the US dollar in this indicator.

1 euro is equal to 100 cents (or euro cents). Banknote denominations in circulation: 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 euros. Coins: 2 and 1 euro, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 and 1 cents. The name of the currency comes from the word "Europe".

Eurocurrency is printed by central banks that are members of the European System of Central Banks. All issued banknotes have one standard design. On the front side, windows, gates, bridges are depicted as symbols of openness and interconnection. They are made in the form of typical examples of the main styles of European architecture: classical, Romanesque, Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and Rococo, "metal and glass", Art Nouveau. At the same time, euro banknotes differ in color palette: 500 - purple, 200 - yellow, 100 - green, 50 - orange, 20 - blue, 10 red, and 5 - gray.

Unlike banknotes, the coins have only the front side in common, on which the denomination is placed against the background of the symbolic map of Europe. The reverse side is considered "national" - each issuing central bank has its own for each denomination.

Despite the fact that officially non-cash euros were introduced on January 1, 1999, and cash was issued on January 1, 2002, the history of the single European currency is older. Before the euro appeared, from 1979 to 1998 in the European monetary system the ECU unit of account (ECU, European Currency Unit) was used, which was a conditional basket of national monetary units a number of countries. Subsequently, the ECU was exchanged for the euro at a one-to-one rate.

Officially, trading in the euro on the international currency market began on January 4, 1999. To save investors from currency risks, quotes of national currencies were fixed. Thus, the exchange rate of the German mark was 1.95583 per euro, the French franc - 6.55957, and the Italian lira - 1,936.21. At the same time, the initial exchange rate of the euro against the dollar was determined at about $1.17.

During 1999, the euro quotes steadily declined, eventually reaching the so-called parity - equality of 1 euro and 1 dollar. At the end of September 2000, the European central bank, the US Federal Reserve System, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and a number of European banks conducted a joint intervention in support of the single euro currency. However, this did not prevent her from achieving absolute historical low, which amounted to 0.8230 dollars per euro in October 2000.

It was recognized that a further decline in quotations single currency could hurt the European economy. At the same time, by the end of 2000, the US Federal Reserve, in order to cope with the upcoming recession, took a course on easing monetary policy, cutting, in particular, the discount rate to 2%. Since interest rates in Europe turned out to be higher, the euro became more attractive for investment than the dollar. In addition, in 2001, the US economy experienced a shock caused by the September 11 terrorist attack. By the end of the year, the euro was trading at 0.96 per dollar, and by July 2002 it returned to parity again. Finally more expensive than a dollar he became after December 6 of the same year. And in 2003, it began to grow steadily in price against the backdrop of the US entry into the war in Iraq.

Its initial value of 1.1736, fixed on the first trading day, the rate reached on May 23, 2003, and the absolute maximum - 1.5990 - in 2008. This became possible due to the global financial crisis, which this time originated in financial system U.S.A. Economists believe that the strengthening of the euro was due mainly to the weakness of the US economy, and not to the strength of the European one. This assumption is also supported by the fact that the aggravation of problems in the eurozone subsequently led to a halt in the growth of currency quotes. For the summer of 2011, the euro exchange rate fluctuates between 1.41-1.45 dollars.

Nevertheless, during its existence, the euro confidently took the second place in the world in terms of government reserves. This is due to the fact that the total gross domestic product countries in the eurozone, surpasses even the US GDP, which ranks first in the world.

The euro/dollar currency pair is the most traded on Forex market and financial derivatives - futures. Today, Europe represents a real alternative to the United States in terms of investment opportunities. At the same time, the choice of investors is influenced primarily by the comparison macroeconomic indicators two regions, such as the inflation rate, the prevailing interest rates, GDP, trade balance etc.

At the same time, the biggest problem of the euro area remains the difference in the level of the economies of the member countries. The strongest are Germany, Italy, France. To those experiencing difficulties - Greece, Ireland and a number of others.

For Russian investors The euro is traditionally interesting as an alternative to the US dollar. European currency are used to diversify the risks associated with exchange rates, and as an independent direction of investments - in times of growth in quotations.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that the settlement in the countries - members of the euro area by debit or credit cards it is more profitable to produce in this currency in order to avoid unnecessary conversion.