Unemployment is a widespread phenomenon. There is not a single place in the world where this phenomenon does not occur.

It affects all spheres of human life, provoking changes in production.

The calculation of the unemployment rate is carried out by analyzing the ratio of the number of citizens who are unable to get a job, while being able to work, to the number of employed persons. Within the Russian Federation, the number of unemployed, since 2014, has been steadily growing.

Fundamentals of unemployment - concept, analysis, accounting

The economic development of the country, in part, is expressed in the unemployment rate. It is a socio-economic phenomenon in which the active part of the population cannot find a job, is recognized as if "superfluous", among the main labor mass.

The International Labor Organization has defined the unemployed. Thus, a person who does not have a permanent job is recognized as unemployed, is in search of work and can readily start it. It is very important that this person was officially registered in the unemployment fund.

It is noteworthy that the number of unemployed in each period varies depending on the change in the cycle and the rate of economic growth, on how much the labor productivity index has increased or decreased, as well as on the level of the skill structure and the demand for labor.

Evaluation of indicators, which exert an influencing pressure on the unemployment rate, is produced by:

1. Calculation of the coefficient of employment of the population.
2. Definitions of the unemployment rate.
3. Conclusion of the percentage of natural unemployment.

The first coefficient determines the specific number of the adult population that is directly employed in the production process on a national scale. The second indicator is the number of unemployed as a percentage of the number of workers. The last indicator is the percentage ratio between the unemployed and the workers at the moment of economic prosperity.

It is important to understand that the rate of unemployment or its rate, may change constantly due to the influence of production. Depending on the cycle, namely, the growth or recession of the economy and the volatility of production, technical progress, depending on the qualifications of employees, the professionalism of hired personnel. If the trend of the unemployment rate falls down, then there is an expansion and rise in production, otherwise, there is an increase in the indicator. Moreover, the dynamics of GNP and unemployment are inextricably linked.

Unemployment can considered in these aspects:

1. Forced.
2. Registered.
3. marginal.
4. Unstable.
5. Technological.
6. Structural.

At forced or voluntary unemployment, as a rule, the worker himself seeks to work at a certain level of wages and certain conditions, but cannot get a job. Or the employee does not want to work on conditions of low wages (voluntary unemployment). The second option tends to increase during an economic boom, or vice versa - it decreases during its recession. The scale and duration of this type of unemployment depend on the professionalism and qualifications of workers, on the socio-demographic group of the population.

At registered unemployment part of the unemployed population is looking for work and is registered with the employment fund.

marginal unemployment characterized by the lack of work among the weakly protected segment of the population and in the social lower classes.

At unstable varieties of unemployment, the decisive factor will be a temporary problem associated with stopping the growth of production.

Hidden the type of unemployment is not officially recognized unemployment, but seasonal, one that occurs only in certain sectors of the economy, as workers are needed in such production.

There is also technological unemployment, which is caused by the adjustment of the production process through the use of the mechanism. With this type of unemployment, as a rule, productivity increases there, but less costs are required to improve the skills of employees.

There is a type of unemployment institutional . This type can be characterized as a combination of trade union or state intervention in the establishment of wages, which should be formed on the basis of market demand.

Unemployment may occur Consequently:

1. Apply measures to improve the economic structure. This implies the manifestation and implementation of equipment that entails job cuts. That is, "machine" production displaces human labor.
2. Fluctuations for a certain season. This means that the level of a certain production has a place to increase or decrease, depending on the season, in each individual industry.
3. The cyclical nature of the economy. During an economic recession or crisis, the need for the use of human resources may decrease.
4. Changes in the demographic picture. The growth of the working population in this case leads to the fact that with an increase it entails a proportional decrease in the need for labor.
5. Political influence on the sphere of wages.

The emergence of such a socio-economic condition as unemployment inevitably entails such effects:

1. Economic changes.
2. Non-economic changes.

The first case entails:

• reduction of federal budget financing revenues by minimizing tax revenues - ;
• costs are rising as a public burden on funding and disbursements, . Retraining of workers, etc.;
• the standard of living goes down. In particular, people who have lost their jobs lose their wealth, respectively, their quality of life becomes lower;
• output is reduced due to the fact that there is a backlog of actual GDP from potential.

Non-economic changes mean an increase in the criminal situation in the country, an increase in stress in society, as well as provoking social and political unrest.

, according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization, the unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the number of the active population.

Official statistics

Statistical observation is based on a thorough analysis of the dynamics of the indicator over the years and months. Statistical observation has confirmed official data. The basis of these data is the published information of Rosgosstat.

As of January 2019, the number of unemployed in the country amounted to about 800 thousand people. At the same time, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation predicts that the number of officially unemployed in 2019 will grow by almost 40% and reach 1.1 million Russians.

If we consider the situation in individual regions, it should be noted that in Moscow lowest unemployment rate- 1.3%, relative to Ingushetia, in which the figure was 26.2%.

Estimated unemployment rate on years allows us to say that since 2011 the indicator has become lower. So, at the beginning of 2011, this level was fixed at a value of 7.8%. In 2014 and 2015, the unemployment rate tended to rise due to massive layoffs.

Starting from the last months of 2013, in the first half of 2014, the unemployment rate stubbornly held on to one place, then a gradual decrease in the unemployment rate began until mid-summer 2014. By the end of 2014, the unemployment rate began to reach 5.3%, by 2015 this level was fixed at 5.8%.

On average, the unemployment rate in Russia has been gradually decreasing since 2011. So at the beginning of 2000, the indicator was 10.6%, then by 2001 it dropped to 9%, the following years it had the following expression - 2002 - 7.9%, 2003 - 8.2%, 2004 - 7.8%, 2005 - 7.1%, 2006 - 7.1%, from 2007 to 2008 the unemployment rate fell to 6%, in 2009-2010 - the level was 8.2%, and since 2011 the level has gradually decreased.

Statistics for this indicator are presented in the following video:

Hidden unemployment and its level

With the development of an economic phenomenon that involves the preservation of the workplace for a specific person, while maintaining formal relationships with the employer, but not giving him the opportunity to actually be employed in production, there appears hidden unemployment. As a rule, it occurs in times of crisis, when the actual labor force is not a necessity.

As a rule, the hidden unemployment rate does not exceed the range of 7 to 10 million people. This indicator tends to steadily increase.

Social protection of unemployed citizens and promising areas of work

Citizens who have actually experienced such an economic phenomenon can take advantage of receiving assistance from the state emergency service, have the right to take part in certain types of work, receive material assistance in the form of unemployment benefits, and so on.

During the crisis, during the growing number of unemployed, IT programming employees are valued more than ever. It is important to note that this particular field of activity is in demand at all times, since the development of technical progress and the design of various systems are valuable not only in the vastness of the country, but throughout the world.

Developers based on Android and iOS are no less popular. Following them in popularity are specialists in the field of transport logistics, car service, middle managers in sales, cashiers and workers. Among the latter are loaders, nurses, turners and farmers, postmen. Among the professions that are becoming unclaimed, as a rule, accountants, cooks, drivers and property managers are singled out.

Reasons and prospects

Theories of the development of unemployment There are many, but they can be summarized in three main ones:

Regardless of the reason for the appearance, the very essence of unemployment is a disaster, since the country, in macroeconomic terms, bears a huge burden, both economic and social. In addition to the fact that the instability of the population of the psychological and social aspects is developing, there are problems of a political nature. After all, the population yearns for constructive decisions and action on the part of the authorities. Moreover, without having a permanent and stable source of income, a person resorts to breaking the law. This means that social tension is increasing, the crime situation is increasing, and so on. The country receives less GDP production.

FROM unemployment can only be fought in a complex by taking a variety of measures. In particular:

1. Creation of institutions that will provide assistance in retraining and retraining, improvement of existing ones.
2. Establishing the process of providing information to the public about vacancies.
3. Implementation of a policy to prevent the development of unemployment.

The rules for calculating the unemployment rate are set out in the following video:

It refers to the number of adults (over 16 years old) of the able-bodied population who have a job. But not all able-bodied population has a job, there are also unemployed people. Unemployment is defined as the size of the adult working-age population who is unemployed and actively looking for one. The total number of employed and unemployed is the labor force.

Various indicators are used to calculate unemployment, but the generally accepted one, including in the International Labor Organization, is. It is defined as the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the labor force, expressed as a percentage.

Unemployment- a socio-economic phenomenon in which part of the labor force is not employed in the production of goods and services.

However, even in this situation, there is some unemployment, called frictional.

Reasons for frictional unemployment

Frictional unemployment arises from the dynamism of the labor market.

Some employees have voluntarily decided to change jobs, finding, for example, a more interesting or higher paying job. Others are trying to find a job due to being fired from a previous job. Still others enter the labor market for the first time or re-enter it, moving from the category of the economically inactive population to the opposite category.

Structural unemployment

Structural unemployment - associated with technological changes in production that change the structure of demand for labor (occurs if an employee fired from one industry cannot get a job in another).

This type of unemployment occurs if the sectoral or territorial structure of demand for labor changes. Over time, important changes occur in the structure of consumer demand and in production technology, which, in turn, change the structure of the overall demand for labor. If the demand for workers in a given profession or in a given region falls, then unemployment appears. The released workers cannot quickly change their profession and qualifications or change their place of residence and remain unemployed for some time.

In the figure, the reduced demand is represented by the line . In this case, assuming wages do not change instantly, the bar represents the amount of structural unemployment: at the wage rate, there are people who are willing but unable to work. Over time, the equilibrium wage will fall to a level at which only frictional unemployment will again exist.

Many economists do not make a clear distinction between frictional and structural unemployment, because in the case of structural unemployment, laid-off workers begin to look for a new job.

It is important that both types of unemployment constantly exist in the economy. It is impossible to completely destroy them or reduce them to zero. People will look for other jobs, strive to improve their well-being, and firms will look for more skilled workers, striving to maximize profits. That is, in a market economy there are constant fluctuations in supply and demand in the labor market.

Since the existence of frictional and structural unemployment is inevitable, economists call their sum natural unemployment.

Natural rate of unemployment- this is its level that corresponds to full employment (includes frictional and structural forms of unemployment), is due to natural causes (staff turnover, migration, demographic reasons), and is not associated with the dynamics of economic growth.

It occurs when a fall in aggregate demand for manufactured goods causes a fall in aggregate demand for labor in the face of downward inflexibility of real wages.

The figure shows the situation of wage rigidity. The proposal is represented by a vertical line for ease of presentation.

If the real wage is above the level corresponding to the equilibrium point , the supply of labor in the market exceeds the demand for it. Firms need fewer workers than the number of people willing to work at a given wage level. On the other hand, firms are unable or unwilling to cut wages for a number of reasons.

Minimum Wage Law

Under this law, wages cannot be set below a certain threshold. For the majority of the employed, this minimum has no practical significance, but there are some groups of workers (unskilled and inexperienced workers, adolescents) for whom the established minimum raises wages above the equilibrium point, which reduces firms' demand for such work and increases unemployment.

Although only a fraction of the country's workforce is organized into unions, they prefer layoffs of workers over wage cuts. The reason is as follows. Temporary wage cuts cut wages for all workers, while layoffs affect in most cases only the most recently hired workers, who make up only a small fraction of union members. In this way, unions achieve high wages, sacrificing the employment of a small number of workers - union members. A collective bargaining agreement between a firm and a trade union can also cause unemployment. As a rule, it is concluded for a long time, and if the agreed level of wages exceeds the equilibrium, then the firm will prefer to hire fewer workers at a high price.

Efficient salary

Efficiency wage theories assume that high wages increase worker productivity and reduce employee turnover in the firm. This policy allows attracting and retaining highly qualified specialists, improving the quality of work and the interest of employees. The reduction in wages reduces the motivation to work and encourages the most capable workers to look for another job.

Psychological aspect

Obviously, there is no single wage rate for all firms in the market. In large firms, wages are usually higher. However, employees of large firms sometimes prefer to remain unemployed than to go to low-paid jobs. According to some economists, this behavior is caused by the self-esteem of workers, their desire for a certain position in society.

institutional unemployment

institutional unemployment - arises due to the limited workforce and employers in up-to-date information about vacancies and the desire of workers.

The level of unemployment benefits also affects the labor market, creating a situation where an individual who has the opportunity to get a low-paid job prefers to sit on unemployment benefits.

This type of unemployment occurs when the labor market does not function effectively.

As in other markets, there is limited information. Individuals may simply be unaware of existing vacancies, or firms may be unaware of an employee's desire for a proposed position. Another institutional factor is unemployment benefit rate. If the level of benefits is high enough, then a situation called the unemployment trap occurs. Its essence lies in the fact that an individual who has the opportunity to get a low-paid job will prefer to receive benefits and not work at all. As a result, unemployment rises, and society suffers losses not only because of the fact that it is produced at a level below potential, but also because of the need to pay inflated unemployment benefits.

Unemployment rates

Unemployment also includes its duration.

Defined as the number of months a person has spent without a job.

As a rule, most people quickly find a job, and unemployment for them seems to be a short-term phenomenon. In this case, we can assume that this is frictional unemployment, and it is inevitable.

On the other hand, there are people who cannot find a job for months. They are called the long-term unemployed. Such people most acutely feel the burden of unemployment and often, despairing of finding a job, leave the group.

Unemployment rates

The main indicator is unemployment rate (u ) , reflecting the share of actually unemployed ( U) in the structure of EAN or labor force ( L) and expressed as a percentage:

EXAMPLE 4.1

If there are 70 million employed and 5 million unemployed, the unemployment rate is 5 / (70 + 5) = 0.067, or 6.7%.

Similarly, one can deduce local indicators, reflecting the level of one or another type of unemployment: this will be the ratio of the number of the corresponding type of unemployed (natural, cyclical, hidden, institutional, etc.) to the EAN. It is also possible to single out the share of the corresponding type of unemployed in the total number of unemployed (in particular, by determining the share of long-term unemployment in the structure of total unemployment). In addition, it is possible to express in absolute form (thousand or million people) the total number of unemployed, as well as the number of each type of unemployed - another thing is that different types of unemployment can overlap each other. Of great importance is the indicator of the duration of unemployment.

Another (specified) indicator of the unemployment rate, taking into account the dynamics of the labor market, is as follows:

where s- the proportion of employed people who lose their jobs; / - the proportion of unemployed who find work in a certain period of time (most often - a month, a quarter, a year). It is assumed that the number of those who have found a job coincides with the number of vacant jobs.

EXAMPLE 4.2

If during the year 2% of the employed lost their jobs, and 18% of the unemployed found work, then the unemployment rate in the country will be 0.02 / (0.02 + 0.18) = 0.1, or 10%.

This indicator clearly captures the direct dependence of the unemployment rate on the intensity of layoffs and its inverse dependence on the intensity of employment in the labor market.

Another indicator that reveals the relationship between fluctuations in the unemployment rate and cyclical fluctuations in actual GDP is expressed in terms of Okun's law, which can be written as follows:

(4.3)

where Y t and Y f – actual and potential GDP, respectively; β is the Okun coefficient, which reflects the degree of sensitivity of the aggregate output to the dynamics of the level of cyclical unemployment; it is calculated empirically in relation to the national economy and varies from country to country (usually in the range from 2 to 3); and and and f – respectively, the general (actual) and natural unemployment rates (in parentheses, therefore, the rate of cyclical unemployment is calculated).

EXAMPLE 4.3

Assume that the overall unemployment rate in the country is 10% and its natural rate is 5%. Okun's coefficient is 3. What is the amount of real GDP lost in a year by the economy due to high unemployment, if the actual GDP was $100 billion that year? We use the following formula:

(100 - ΒΒPpot) / BB11pot \u003d - 3 × (0.1 - 0.05) \u003d -0.15;

then 0.85 GDPpot = 100 and ΒΒΠΙpot = 117.6. Consequently, the losses amounted to 100 – 117.6 = -17.6 billion dollars. the actual GDP in the country turned out to be lower than the potential one.

Causes and consequences of unemployment

Main causes of unemployment are the following:

• - the availability of freedom and flexibility of labor relations in a market economy, the need for workers to adapt to the labor market;
• - cyclical fluctuations in the economy, including phases of recession and depression, characterized by a decrease in demand for labor and layoffs of workers;
• - structural shifts in the economy, leading to the release of part of the workers due to sectoral, regional, professional changes; the degree of correspondence between the structure of demand for labor and the structure of labor supply;
• - the rigidity of wages, which prevents the balancing of the supply of labor and the demand for labor;
• - imperfection of labor legislation, labor market infrastructure, forms and mechanisms of retraining of workers, unemployment insurance system; strength or weakness of trade unions, social partnership; the degree of immersion of the economy into shadow forms;
• - demographic processes associated with the dynamics of fertility and mortality, emigration or immigration of the labor force, as well as the involvement of pensioners, youth, women in labor activity, with retirement age, etc.;
• - social changes, especially during the period of transformation processes, as well as the nature of the social policy pursued in the country;
• - the seasonal nature of labor activity in certain industries, etc.

Some of these causes are of a general nature, while others are embodied in specific types of unemployment.

Consequences of unemployment it could be considered:

• - underutilization of the country's economic potential, a decrease in the actual aggregate output relative to potential GDP;
• - a decrease in the economic potential due to the dequalification of the unemployed, the separation of part of society from the sphere of reproduction of human capital;
• - financial costs caused by the cost of unemployment benefits, the maintenance of employment services, etc.;
• - the growth of social problems: the deterioration of the social and moral and psychological situation of a part of society, including young people, the formation of sources for the growth of crime and other social ulcers of society, etc.

Due to the indicated economic and social costs of unemployment, the fight against it becomes an important direction. state regulation of the economy. In practice, this is reflected in employment policy. It includes the following tools: development and implementation of various programs to increase employment, in particular the creation of new jobs, the establishment of a system of public works, etc.; stimulation of small business development; expansion and support of the system of retraining of personnel and improvement of their qualifications, creation of a system of continuous professional education, bringing the structure of labor supply formed in the field of education in line with the needs of the economy; optimization of migration policy; improving the efficiency of the labor market infrastructure; improvement and observance of labor legislation, development of social partnership, etc. However, the state of employment and unemployment largely depends on the general macroeconomic policy, embodied primarily in stabilization policy, structural policy, and long-term economic growth policy.

Find out the number of unemployed people."Unemployed" people are defined by the federal government as people who are able to work and who have been actively looking for work in the last four weeks.

Find out the number of employed people. The employed population includes people who work full time. The same number includes people who are self-employed if they have a part-time job or if they are in the family business for more than 15 hours a week, even if the work is unpaid. People who are on maternity leave, sabbatical or regular leave are also considered the working population as they have a job to which they can return.

Do not take into account people who are not regarded as a labor force. People not considered in the labor force are those who are not actively looking for work and those who have other types of employment, such as students, housewives or the disabled. The non-labor population also includes young people under the age of 16 and people in institutions such as prisons or nursing homes for the elderly and the disabled, people in the armed forces, retirees, students and the disabled.

• It is important to know exactly who is included in the labor force, so as not to mistakenly take into account extra people in order not to distort the data in this way.

Unemployment in its most general form represents the underutilization of available labor resources. Otherwise, we can say that unemployment is such a state of the labor market, when a part of people who are able and willing to work for hire cannot find a job.

According to the ILO methodology, the unemployed category includes able-bodied citizens who do not have a job at the time of the statistical survey (registered with the employment service), looking for work and ready to start it immediately.

Unemployment is measured through the indicator level or unemployment rates(u), which is calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed (registered or identified in the survey) to the total labor force. The labor force (L) represents the totality of employed (E) and unemployed (U) and characterizes the economically active part of the country's able-bodied population: L = E + U.

The formula for calculating the unemployment rate is:

An important indicator of labor statistics is also the indicator labor force participation rate. It reflects the proportion of the working-age population present in the labor market, and is calculated as the ratio of the labor force to the total working-age population, expressed as a percentage:

The number of unemployed registered with the employment service characterizes the explicit form of unemployment. Officially registered unemployment cannot cover all the unemployed. A sample survey of families is used to identify all unregistered unemployed.

Since there are various theoretical approaches to the analysis of the mechanism of the functioning of the labor market, various explanations for the reasons for the existence of unemployment are also proposed. As shown in the third question of topic 11, according to classical economists, competition in the labor market excludes involuntary unemployment, when skilled workers who are willing to work for the existing wage rate cannot find work. The classics argue that unemployment is voluntary (workers demand too high wages and prefer not to work for existing wages), state intervention in the market mechanism can lead to negative consequences. In the neoclassical approach, quantitatively, voluntary unemployment consists of unemployment resulting from the job search process, speculative unemployment and waiting unemployment.

Keynesian theory proceeds from the possibility of the existence of stable involuntary unemployment, due to the inflexibility of wages. According to Keynesian theory, the demand for labor is not regulated by fluctuations in market prices for labor, but is determined by aggregate demand and output, so state intervention is necessary to eliminate imbalance in the labor market.

Thus, the analysis of the labor market allows us to identify the following main possible causes of unemployment:

Inflexibility of the labor market;

Wage inflexibility;

Lack of total costs.

These reasons also determine various types of unemployment: frictional, structural, cyclical.

frictional unemployment is the result of the job search process and is due to the fact that it takes time for the employee to “meet” with his job. Therefore, there are always simultaneously unemployed people with certain skills and unfilled vacancies where their skills can be in demand. Frictional unemployment is generated by the actions of the workers themselves, changes in the structure of labor supply. It is voluntary and, as a rule, short-term.

Structural unemployment means the coexistence of a mismatch between unemployed and free vacancies. It is due to structural shifts in the economy, as a result of which the unemployed either do not have the right profession, or live in places that do not allow them to take vacancies. The line between structural and frictional unemployment is rather blurry. But structural unemployment is associated with changes in the structure of aggregate spending, and, consequently, in the structure of demand for labor. Structural unemployment is involuntary. An element of structural unemployment is considered seasonal unemployment, traditionally manifested in agriculture, construction and tourism.

Cyclical unemployment is a consequence of the insufficiency of aggregate demand in the phases of recession and depression of the business cycle, when there is a shortage of jobs in general, regardless of the specialty and qualifications of workers. Cyclical unemployment is involuntary.

Frictional and structural unemployment are inevitable for the economy. Cyclical unemployment can be overcome with the help of the state's macroeconomic policy. The sum of frictional and structural unemployment is natural rate of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment characterizes full employment rate in the economy. The real GDP achieved at the natural rate of unemployment is called the productive potential of the economy, or in short, potential GDP. The natural rate of unemployment is not constant.

If the unemployment rate is higher than natural, the actual GDP is less than the potential. The underproduced potential volume of goods and services, that is, the difference between the actual and potential volumes of national production, is lost irrevocably and constitutes the economic cost of unemployment. The relationship between the unemployment rate and the lost volume of GDP is revealed by Okun's law. In accordance with this law, if the actual unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate by 1%, then the lag in GDP is 2.5% (for the US economy). In general, Okun's law can be expressed by the formula:

where u is the actual unemployment rate, u* is the natural unemployment rate, β is the Okun coefficient (individual for each economy, but always greater than 1), Y is the actual GDP, Y* is the potential GDP.

Unemployment has not only economic, but also social costs - the loss of qualifications by the unemployed, the breakdown of families, moral and psychological depression, social unrest, etc.