Volume of external debt to GDP. America tops the ranking of countries in terms of external debt

According to the report of the Central Intelligence Agency, in December 2013 it amounted to $9577000000000, which is almost 4 times more Country's GDP, which is equal to $251000000000. In other words, for every dollar of GDP there is $4.36 of debt. At first glance, this statistic is shocking because this indicator– third in the world after the European Union and the USA, and domestic gross product These giants of the world economy are many times higher than the British, and, therefore, the ratio of external debt to GDP is completely different. However, the problem of Great Britain's external debt is by no means a priority and is not exaggerated as much as many other economic issues.

Who do the British owe money to?

If we consider the distribution of debt concentration, then the largest part of it lies with commercial banks Great Britain (55%), 28.7% - in the non-financial sector, 8% each - in the state and direct investment, but the Central Bank modestly pulls its burden at 0.3%. The more significant part of the debt is borne by the country's banking sector, the greater the share of short-term debt. And the preponderance in the distribution of debt repayments towards short-term debts increases the country’s risks. In total, the UK's short-term debts amount to 68.3%, only Japan has more: 77.8%. So the overall picture is not positive at all.

In general, this ratio of GDP and external debt was observed, for example, before the First World War. Naturally, the geopolitical situation today, as well as the hysterical state of many large economies of the world, threatens to result in a major crisis or even an armed conflict, the likelihood of which, however, decreases with the development of integration processes and ever closer ties between countries. The UK must manage a difficult course: reduce the deficit state budget and help reduce household debt - without limiting the rate of GDP growth.

Economists are in no hurry to draw conclusions

Despite the rather depressing statistics, it cannot be said that economists are everywhere sounding the alarm about the UK's large debts.

Debt structure

Let's look at the structure of UK external debt:

• USA - €578.6 billion.
• Germany - €379.3 billion.
• Spain - €316.6 billion.
• France - €209.9 billion.
• Ireland - €113.5 billion.
• Japan - €122.7 billion.

The largest creditors are Germany, Spain and the USA. However, the likelihood of bankruptcy is low because the country owns a significant amount of high-quality assets.

A more or less serious threat to the UK banking system are the debt problems of Ireland, Spain and Italy. However, these countries receive support from other EU members and also do not plan to fall into a deep systemic crisis.

Expert opinion

Correspondent news agency"Business News" discussed financial difficulties UK with an independent expert in the field of international economic relations Ruslan Bulatov. According to the interlocutor of Business News, the UK will cope with the payment of debt obligations.

DN: Can we talk about the hopeless situation that Great Britain finds itself in?

Ruslan Bulatov: I doubt that those experts who declare the collapse of the UK economy are right. The thesis about the negative impact of large public debt has no direct evidence, because history clearly shows the possibilities developed countries, even living in debt. Thus, the United States has a debt of 18 trillion dollars, while its economy is growing steadily. The UK has a freely convertible currency - this way the country's authorities will be able to amortize their debt through inflation and quantitative easing, by including printing press– developed Western countries will remain on the high horse for a long time; all forecasts about the imminent collapse of their economies are nothing more than horror stories. Now we need to think about

Against the backdrop of another debt crisis flaring up, let's discuss this issue together.

These are the data that recently once again alarmed the Internet communities, tirelessly monitoring the successes or failures of the Russian authorities:

“Russia’s external debt last year increased by $83 billion 408 million, or 15.4%, and as of January 1, 2013 amounted to $623 billion 963 million compared to $540 billion 555 million as of January 1, 2012, according to Bank data Russia." (proof)

Horror? Or not? What does it mean? Yes, we hear so much from time to time: about fiscal cliffs, and about the periodic default of the United States, and about the complete bankruptcy of Greece, they even calculated how high the mountain of money that makes up the US national debt will be.

Each of you has probably thought at least once about this question: who do they owe everything to? Almost every country owes something, and many of them already owe exorbitant amounts (it seems to me that no one expects that the debt will be repaid). If we turn to brainy economists, they will put forward their theories for us, which we still won’t understand. Let's all try to figure this out in some simpler way, so to speak, for the average person and using vivid examples...

First, let me remind you how government debt arises. The total amount of government obligations for issued and outstanding government loans, received by the creditor and the interest on them, guarantees issued by the state, constitutes public debt.

Each government, in its activities, strives to ensure that revenue part budget was equal to expenditure. In reality, expenditures exceed revenues, resulting in a budget deficit. The most economically developed countries, as a rule, constantly have a deficit budget (from 2-3% of GDP).

To cover the government's budget deficit, the state applies for a loan to national banks, as well as the release of government valuable papers- bonds. As a result, it appears and grows state debt, because government bonds and credit are debentures states.

Under foreign debt refers to the obligations of the state arising in foreign currency. These may be loans from foreign governments, credit institutions, companies and international financial organizations, it could also be foreign investment.

Lately, in particular, there has been a lot of talk about the difficult situation in the Eurozone. Sometimes it will “bang” here, sometimes here. Greece either comes out or doesn't come out. Let's look at debt interpenetration in Europe first. The data is a little outdated, but the trend of the hike and understanding the essence of the issue will be sufficient...

This is the official 2011 ESCP Europe study on debt cross penetration in Europe.

The arrows show who owes whom and how much, the thickness of the arrows shows the dimensions between government debts, circles with the names of countries - the total amount of debt (the area of ​​the circle is proportional to the size of the country's total debt). Pay attention to England and Italy

But among other things, it is clear that there are counter debts. In modern banking system it is considered normal when everyone owes everyone. Any reasonable person in such a situation will suggest simplifying the picture by making counter offsets. Well, let's make them.

At the same time, you need to understand that in reality debts cannot be offset - they were issued with different conditions, different terms repayments and so on, in addition, such offset will nullify or seriously reduce working capital many financial organizations - which will cause a collapse of payments and a subsequent growing lump of a general crisis. There are many different nuances there.

But virtually we can make such a purely formal digital offset. Let's look at the result:

It is clearly visible that France's debt has practically disappeared. And she is owed a lot by Italy, somewhat less by Germany, and even less (but also a lot) by Spain. In general, if anyone is doing well with debts, it’s France.

But whoever has really big problems is also clearly visible, this is England. England owes Germany and Spain gigantic (and approximately equal) sums, but few people owe her anything.

Italy is also in a bad position - it owes France a lot, but no one owes it anything significant.

Oddly enough, everything is not so hopeless for Spain - it owes the French and Germans, but the British owe it even more, and Portugal’s debts are also quite large. Well, the Germans, and even more so practically Alles Ordnung - yes, the debt to France is great, but England and Spain owe Germany much more.

Of course, the volume of debt in itself is not important - what is important is its ratio to the country’s GDP. It was because of this relationship that disaster was created first in Greece, Portugal and Ireland (PIG). But the main European debt bubble lurks in England. He will show himself yet.

data for 2011

But about the relationship with GDP, this is a very interesting and often forgotten point by many. This is where we come to the assessment of the news that was at the beginning of the post.

In the economic report of the European Commission published in mid-May in 2013. an increase in public debt is predicted for the vast majority of eurozone countries, in particular Spain, France, Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Analytical information service International organization creditors (WOC) conducted a study of the volume of public debt different countries world and forecasts for their increase.

In 2010, the total public debt of the world's countries exceeded $41 trillion, but at that time the increase in the volume of liabilities could be justified by the desire of governments to overcome the consequences of the crisis as quickly as possible and return to pre-crisis levels. At the end of 2011 statistical reports demonstrated positive dynamics of various economic indicators, including GDP growth in many countries. However, the government debts of the 50 largest economies in the world also increased and reached the amount of $55 trillion. The total external debt of these countries exceeded $65 trillion. Thus, the economic growth last year was due to government injections, including through borrowing from non-residents.

As can be seen from the table, the leaders in the ranking of countries in terms of external debt in most cases occupy the same positions as a year earlier. External debt of the United States at the end of 2011. became equal GDP volume, but the United States is far from a leader in the ranking for this indicator. Ireland's external debt is almost 11 times greater than its GDP, Great Britain - 5 times, the Netherlands and Hong Kong - 4 times. Only Japan has an external debt ratio below 50%, but this is probably the only positive aspect in the debt situation of this country. Japanese government debt levels are off the charts, as shown in the table below.

Compared to the results of 2010 In the top ten, everyone remained in their places, with the exception of the UK and China. The latter managed to reduce its sovereign debt by 5%, which allowed it to change places with the UK, which continues to increase debt (+17%). In addition, in the top ten, China has the best ratio of public debt to GDP (25.8%).

The US national debt continues to grow, and its ratio to GDP has already exceeded 100%. But it is necessary to understand that the American economy is the largest in the world, in addition, the United States has the opportunity to generate share premium. This means that even with the continuing trend toward an increase in the debt burden, the American economy still has room for growth.

Japan leads the world with public debt at 226% of GDP

Most high level debt burden is recorded in Japan, where the volume of public debt to GDP is 226%. The country continues to combat the consequences of the tsunami mainly through domestic financial injections into national currency, which explains such a high debt burden. Following Japan in this indicator is Greece, in third place is Italy, which is using every opportunity to avoid the fate of Greece. At the end of 2011 Italy's GDP grew by 7%, while France and Germany grew by 8% and 9% respectively. Overall for the eurozone in 2011. turned out quite successfully - economic growth was observed in all countries of the bloc with the exception of Greece (-1%).

Source: IMF data, WOC calculations

The highest level of debt burden per capita was also recorded in Japan - 105 thousand dollars of public debt. For Ireland, which ranks second, this figure is more than half as low ($49.9 thousand). As can be seen from the rating, for last year debt load in the top twenty, on average, increased by more than 10%, with the exception of Sweden and Portugal, where there was a slight decrease in this indicator (by 4% and 2%, respectively).

Russia is in good positions in all three indicators. The country's level of external debt to GDP does not exceed 30%; its growth over the year was only 6%. The level of public debt is even lower and does not exceed 10% of GDP, and for every Russian there is $1,247 in debt. As can be seen from the table below, almost all debt is covered by international reserves.

Source: CIA data, WOC calculations

For several years, the top three in the ranking in terms of international reserves did not change, and a fairly significant gap remained between third and fourth places. But at the end of 2011. Saudi Arabia overtook Russia to take third place. Apparently, the government of this Arab country is building up reserves for a rainy day when oil runs out. To get into second place, Saudi Arabia needs to double reserve fund. This is possible if oil prices remain high and Japan to resolve internal problems will begin to use gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Forecast of growth of public debt in 2012-2015.

Source: IMF data

According to IMF expectations, by 2015. the volume of government debt will continue to increase. The United States will retain leadership in this indicator - the country will surpass the $20 trillion mark in three years. Japan will retain second place, and by 2015. its government debt will exceed $15 trillion. Judging by trends, by 2015. the total debt of the top ten countries will reach almost 55 trillion dollars, that is, the volume that currently accounts for the debts of 50 countries.

We present to your attention the data of the TOP 10 countries in the world in terms of GDP in 2012, as well as the GDP of some CIS countries in 2012, prepared on the basis of the CIA (USA) World Fact Book. According to the information presented, the top three leaders in terms of GDP have not changed, and the United States is still in first place, China is second, and Japan is third. Russia in terms of GDP rose from 10th place in 2011 to 9th place in 2012, overtaking India. In addition to Russia, the top 100 countries in the world with the largest GDP from the CIS countries included Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.

Countries GDP volume, US dollars

1. USA 15497.321 billion
2. China 7743.144 billion
3. Japan 6124.899 billion
4. Germany 3706.970 billion
5. France 2889.708 billion
6. Brazil 2617.987 billion
7. England 2603.880 billion
8. Italy 2287.704 billion
9. Russia 2117.236 billion
10. India 2012.760 billion

32. Ukraine 359.900 billion
54. Kazakhstan 167.600 billion
61. Belarus 105.200 billion
74. Azerbaijan 65.410 billion
75. Uzbekistan 64.150 billion.

And now another meaningful picture from Wikipedia! Anyone interested can search our country.

Below the spoiler is a table of all countries of the world, sorted by the ratio of external debt to GDP (as a percentage)

As we see, the external debt is not growing much, but the internal public debt is much stronger.

By the way, I saw an interesting flash drive here. CLICK ON THE PICTURE BELOW and you can see how the world's debts have changed in the past and what forecast awaits them in the future

But the latest news: Italy's sovereign debt has reached a historic high and exceeded two trillion euros As reported in a statement released today by the country's Central Bank (Banca diItalia), in October, external debt amounted to 2 trillion 14 billion euros. (link )

Well, on the topic that concerns debts, I cannot ignore the most interesting country in this regard - the USA. Remember, not so long ago everyone on the Internet was looking with curiosity at what the US national debt looked like.

Let's remember this.

Well, or here’s another option on US debt!

If you look at each country individually, you might think that it owes another country. But no, other countries also owe someone... In fact, it is no secret to anyone that states owe various banking structures.

Any sane person asks the question: “Why doesn’t the government simply print the required amount of money?” The most amazing thing is that not a single high-ranking official or venerable professor of economics can give a clear and precise answer to this question! They all repeat in unison the memorized phrase that if you print money, there will be inflation. At the same time, none of them can explain what the difference is: take 10 billion USD. V international bank(sell bonds to a certain foreign investment company) or borrow them from the domestic consumer by issuing bonds for favorable conditions, the guarantor of which is the state itself with its countless natural resources and land.. After all, the effect for the economy is one - it will receive 10 billion USD. By the way, money can be withdrawn from the economy at any time, if necessary.

Inflation is determined by the ratio of the volume of money supply and the volume of trade turnover, and where does it come from? money supply- this does not matter, just as the proportions of the components of trade turnover do not matter.

Here is another interesting, but unfortunately not new, diagram of mutual debts. Click on the picture and you will be able to select a country to visualize mutual debt.

It is absolutely clear that only economically justified internal borrowing, which do not increase the monetary base and it is absolutely not clear why the people, represented by the state, should depend on some international banking corporations and pay them.

Unfortunately, we must admit that the majority governments developed countries lost the opportunity to fully exercise their main function- control function. Central banks are not controlled by governments, therefore, they cannot be a full-fledged instrument for achieving national goals.

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Here's what else I'd recommend reading in economics:

According to Standard & Poor's, one of the three most influential rating agencies 40% of the world's sovereign debt is owned by monarchies. In doing so, the agency emphasizes the difference between absolute monarchs, who have significant influence on politics in their countries, and constitutional monarchs, who play a symbolic role as head of state.

All absolute monarchies are concentrated in the Arab world, and their national debt is less than 1% of the total. However, constitutional monarchies tend to have higher credit ratings based on the increased stability and predictability of their policies.

Public debt consists of debt owed by the central government, regional and local authorities, state enterprises and organizations.

5. Absolute monarchies

They account for 0.4% of global public debt. This reflects the high budget indicators countries They do not need to make large borrowings from outside. Of the absolute monarchies, the most best rating(“AA”) have Qatar and emirate Abu Dhabi.

4. Constitutional monarchies

Norway, Spain, Sweden, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein And Denmark make up the majority of indebted kingdoms (5.9% of public debt). Spain has a satisfactory credit rating(“BBB”), all other countries – highest (“AAA”).

3. States included in the British Commonwealth of Nations

The top three in global public debt in 2015 include countries under the protectorate of Queen Elizabeth II. She is the head of more than a dozen countries within the Commonwealth - including Great Britain,Canada, Bahamas And Papua New Guinea. The total public debt of these states amounted to 8.2%. Wherein Great Britain, Canada And Australia have a long-term credit rating of “AAA”, according to Standard & Poor’s.

2. Japan

Tokyo's national debt is $11 trillion, 25.4% of total debt or 246.14% of GDP. Since the early 1990s Japan is experiencing continuous stagnation. The policies that the Japanese government is pursuing to overcome the crisis only increase the level of debt. Currently the government Japan spends almost half of its total tax revenue to pay off its massive debt. Despite this, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds remains surprisingly low, down to 1%.

1. Non-monarchical states

These countries account for 60.2% of the world's public debt. The most major debtor is Greece. Its debt as a percentage of GDP is 172.73%. In July 2015, the IMF released a report on Greece's debt sustainability. It said that due to policy easing during last year and the recent deterioration of the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment, Greece's public debt has become highly unsustainable. Slightly less national debt Italy— 133.7% of GDP. Russia is not included in the top 20 countries with the largest public debt; at the beginning of 2015, the external debt of the state was $41 billion, excluding the debts of state-owned companies, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and banks.

Currently, many Russians are interested in information regarding the external debt of not only our state, but also other countries of the world. Which of them has the smallest external debt, and which has the largest? Our experts will help you sort out these issues.

External debt

Before ranking the countries of the world by the size and amount of external debt, we should consider this concept itself. It is established primarily at the legislative level. Yes, it works in our country Budget Code, according to which the external debt of any country to other states is understood as financial credit debt in foreign currency.

In the dictionary of economic terms, this concept is considered in the form of total monetary obligations, which the borrowing country needs to return to certain period to the creditor state. The amount of such credit debt will include both the loan itself and the interest for its use that requires payments. For a country, this amount of debt includes obligations:

• international banks;
• governments of other countries of the world;
• private banks that are owned by foreigners.

There are two types of external debt:

1. Current (the one that needs to be returned to foreign creditors in this year, that is, in 2019).
2. General government (accumulated over several years along with unpaid interest, it should be reimbursed in subsequent years).

To estimate the amount of external debt of a particular state, specialists working in the field of economics and finance use the ratio between credit debt to foreign creditors and the gross domestic product of the debtor country itself. In this case, GDP (gross domestic product) stands macroeconomic indicator, representing the total amount of everything that a country earned in a year from the goods and services produced.

External debt indicators

Experts say that external debt affects not only economic sphere borrower country, but can also lead to long-term political dependence. This is determined by the critical level of overall debt indicators:

1. The solvency of the country (the ability to timely fulfill all obligations undertaken at the expense of its own resources), which includes:
   • dependence on export goods;
   • attitude to State GDP(that is, to the main base of household resources);
   • repayment of debt obligations from state budget revenues.
2. Liquidity (the ability of existing assets, such as securities, to be quickly sold at market prices), taking into account:
   • the duration of the debt (short-term or long-term);
   • adequacy of international reserves;
   • monitoring the risks of non-repayment of debt obligations.
3. Indicators for the public sector, namely:
   • the impact of tax revenues on public debt;
   • rate changes foreign currency to home.

Thanks to these indicators, which affect almost all areas of the economy, it is possible to calculate how quickly the debtor state will return what it borrowed from other countries of the world cash. For example, a safe level of debt is indicated by the ratio of debt to export income not exceeding 200% (if this indicator is above 275%, then the external debt can be partially written off as unpaid).

In relation to local GDP, the critical level of debt will be considered from 60% (according to IMF calculations) and from 80-100% (according to calculations World Bank). Exceeding this limit indicates that the repayment of financial debt from other countries of the world is due to the transfer of resources. Instead of producing goods and services for the internal needs of the state, they are being produced for export trade.

Also, to predict the return of debt obligations with interest, you should take into account:

• the ratio of these obligations (they may be subject to a number of preferential conditions);
• degree of openness of the external capital market;
• real exchange rate regime;
• the likelihood of an economic crisis.

If a country has limited access to its own and international reserves, then there can be no question of any solvency. Therefore, many developing countries have difficulty returning cash loans. They use all the profits received from domestic production to pay off external debt, and the current costs of their own activities are taken from new loan receipts.

Positive aspects of state external debt from countries around the world

It would seem that credit financial debt to other countries does not bring anything good for the state - it is the ineffective use of money received on credit, servicing credit obligations, economic dependence from the creditor country, leading to a change in political relations between states. But experts in economics and finance also find positive aspects in external debt:

• any foreign loan improves economic situation borrower country;
• influx foreign capital helps in the development of certain areas of the economy (for example, transport, energy, etc.);
• the general budget of the state is restored.

But these positive aspects begin to work only if borrowed funds are distributed effectively.

Rating of world countries by external debt

Experts working in the World Banking System annually calculate all possible prospects for repaying external debt for countries around the world. Also within the scope of their activities is the compilation of rating tables for external debt with calculation of the percentage ratio of debt of this type to nominal GDP. For 2019, the top 10 countries in the world with the lowest external debt have been compiled:

As a result of the analysis of these tables, we can conclude that there are a surprisingly small number of countries that do not have external debt - only three (Brunei, Macau and the Republic of Palau), in contrast to other states that owe almost the entire world.

There are countries that are both borrowers and lenders to each other. So why don't they offset their financial debts? But this depends not only on the political relationship between them, but also on the conditions credit loan– repayment terms, interest payments, etc. After all, offsetting such debts can not only reset the debts to zero, but also seriously affect working capital public finance s companies. This situation, in turn, could lead to a crisis in the economies of both countries.

At the same time, in the near future, government debt obligations, like a snowball, will be able to sweep away everything in its path. These are the conclusions of the organizers of the study, the World Organization of Creditors (WOC).

The national debt of the countries of the world continues to increase, and, according to the latest estimates, it is increasingly difficult for countries not only to reduce its volume, but at least to stabilize it, the study says. According to preliminary results of 2012, the total debt of all countries in the world exceeded $55 trillion. The majority of this volume (75%) consists of obligations from just seven developed economies of the world - the G7 countries. Over the previous year, they not only did not ease the situation, but also increased their debts by 5%. In general, the debt of developed countries increased by 12% and amounts to 110% of their total GDP.

IN developing countries the situation is not so critical: in 2012, the total amount of public debt increased by 1% and in relation to GDP is 34%. The largest increase was observed in the Middle East and North Africa, where government debt increased by 5%. In other regions, the increase is 1-2% compared to the previous year.

Government debt of key regions of the world

Sources:WOCIMF, CIA.

The leaders have not changed

If we consider all the countries of the world as a whole, then there have been no significant changes in leaders. The first two lines of the ranking are occupied by the United States and Japan, which each have $16 trillion. and $14 trillion. respectively. Thus, more than half of the world's sovereign debt is owed to these two countries. Then there are countries whose public debt ranges from $1 trillion. up to $3 trillion. After Japan, which government obligations almost 3 times higher than its own GDP, the situation looks most difficult in Italy. At the end of 2012, sovereign debt in relation to GDP amounted to 126%. However, experts note that the situation in this country is more stable than that of its southern European neighbors, since government bonds have long maturities and are mainly owned by domestic investors.

At the same time, in percentage terms, the most significant increase in public debt among the countries considered was recorded in Kazakhstan. The indicator in this country increased by more than a third (+32%), raising Kazakhstan to 58th place in the overall ranking in terms of public debt. The largest increase in financial liabilities among developed countries was noted in Spain and Australia. At the end of 2012, debt in these countries increased by 23% and 19%, respectively.

China continues to reduce its public debt, but at a very slow pace. At the end of 2012, the amount of debt decreased by 6%. At the same time, a year earlier the government repaid another 5% of its obligations. The public debt in Greece also decreased by 8%, which can be explained by the write-offs that creditors took in 2012. Decreased financial obligations and in Hungary - a decrease of 15% gave the country 42nd place in the overall ranking.

Sources:WOCIMF, CIA.

One debt for everyone

Japan is still the leader when it comes to public debt per capita. Each resident of the country accounts for more than $110 thousand. The consequences of the tsunami and the accident at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima will have a negative impact on the economy of the Land of the Rising Sun for a long time. Japan is followed by Ireland ($53.9 thousand per capita), which Singapore and the USA have already almost caught up with. In these countries, each resident accounts for $53 thousand in public debt. At the same time, the pressure on Qatari residents has increased significantly: now each of them accounts for more than $37 thousand, which is 19% higher than a year earlier.

In Russia as a whole, the situation with public debt is stable. At the end of 2012, its volume increased by 1% and does not exceed 11% of GDP. As for debt per capita, each resident accounts for just over $1.5 thousand.

Sources:WOCIMF, CIA.

Stocks won't save you

When it comes to international reserves, China can boast of the most impressive “safety cushion”. Over the past year, the country has increased the volume of MR to $3.5 trillion, which is 3 times more than the national debt. Second place is held by Japan, whose figures reach $1.3 trillion. However, this will be enough to cover only 10% of the national debt. Third place is firmly won by Saudi Arabia, which continues to increase its reserve funds. Russia, which currently ranks fourth, may in the near future be “moved” by the United States, which is also increasing its reserve fund. However, it should be noted that in case of urgent need, most countries will not have enough “piggy banks” to cover all their debts.

Sources:WOCIMF, CIA.

Pessimism becomes reality

With the pressure steadily increasing, forecasts of the imminent explosion of “debt bubbles” are becoming increasingly common. Countries that are already overwhelmed by debt are unable to find ways to pay off their obligations and are forced to borrow even more to pay interest on current loans. For most developed economies, as well as for countries where the ratio of public debt to GDP exceeds 60-70%, the point of no return appears to have already been passed. Therefore, sooner or later they will repeat the fate of Greece or Cyprus, experts say. However, in this case, there will be no one to borrow funds for “rescue”.

However, based on the forecast for the dynamics of government debt growth relative to GDP, a slight decline in this indicator is planned in the second half of the current decade. However, IMF optimists still rely on an increase in GDP, rather than on a real reduction in government debt.

In general, experts are increasingly inclined to a pessimistic scenario: in the near future a public finance crisis is quite real, which in its power and consequences will be many times greater than financial crises previous years.

Forecast of dynamics of public debt in relation to GDP of key regions of the world

Sources:WOC, IMF, CIA.