Demography - the science of population. The population of the world is the totality of people living on Earth. The current population the globe exceeds 7 billion people.

The population is constantly growing. Over the past 1000 years, the population on Earth has increased 20 times. At the time of Columbus, the population was only 500 million people. Currently, about every 24 seconds, one child is born and every 56 seconds, one person dies.

Demography is the study of population - the science of the patterns of population reproduction, as well as the dependence of its character on socio-economic, natural conditions, migrations. Demography, along with the geography of the population, studies the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, the causes and consequences of these changes, and gives recommendations for their improvement. Under the reproduction (natural movement) of the population is understood the continuous renewal of human generations as a result of the processes of fertility and mortality. The geographical features of the natural are manifested in unequal rates of population growth in different regions and countries.

Modern demographic trends are expressed in the rapid growth of the population as a whole. At the same time, the rate of population growth is now slowing down. Particularly rapid population growth was noted in the second half of the 20th century, when its number increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6 billion by 2000 (Fig. 27). happened demographicexplosion- rapid accelerated population growth in a relatively short period of time, especially in the second half of the 20th century. This happened as a result of a decrease in mortality at a too high birth rate. So, over the past 1000 years, the population on Earth has increased 20 times. Scientists suggest that population growth is slowing down and by 2050 the population will increase to only 9.5 billion people.

Population growth rate in major regions worlds are very different. In regions dominated by economically developed countries (Europe, North America, Australia), the population is growing slowly, and in some European countries it is even declining.

It is assumed that the population will decrease from 82 million people in 2010 to 70.1 million in 2090, and will decrease from 125 million to 91 million people, or by 27.2%, over 100 years. The reason for this decline is

In the regions of developing countries (Africa, Asia, Latin America) is characterized by relatively rapid population growth. High population growth rates in developing countries cause a range of problems: food shortages, low levels of medical care and literacy, land degradation due to their irrational use, etc.

Essence demographic problems lies not so much in high growth of the world's population, how much in the disproportion of growth dynamics in developed and developing countries.

Modern demographic processes are so acute that they require intervention in their development. Therefore, in a number of countries of the world, demographicwhat policy- a system of various measures taken by the state in order to influence natural movement population, and primarily on the birth rate, stimulating growth or reducing its numbers.

Demographic policy in China, India is aimed at reducing the birth rate and population growth. In Europe, on the contrary, they stimulate an increase in the birth rate of the population.

To solve the problem of population decline in the state, measures are being taken to increase the birth rate in the country (material support for families raising two or more children, construction of affordable housing, etc.).

The concept of " quality of life of the population» - the degree of satisfaction of the material, spiritual and social needs of a person. The quality of life of the population is characterized by such indicators as average life expectancy, health status, cash income, housing provision, etc. developed countries the average life expectancy of people is increasing (about 80 years). This leads to an increase in the number of pensioners and an aging population.

Dissertation abstract on the topic "Regional features of fertility in Russia"

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-POLITICAL RESEARCH

As a manuscript

ZAKHAROVA OLGA DMITRIEVNA

"REGIONAL FEATURES OF THE FERTILITY IN RUSSIA"

Specialty - 08.00.18.

Population economics and demography

MOSCOW - 1993

JOB DONE AT THE CENTER OF DEMOGRAPHY

SCIENTIFIC ADVISOR - doctor economic sciences,

Professor RYBAKOVSKY L. L.

OFFICIAL OPPONENTS - Doctor of Economics,

Professor, Corresponding Member of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine PIROZHKOV p. and.

Candidate of Economic Sciences KISELEVA L.N.

LEADING ORGANIZATION - Center for the Study of Population Problems, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University. M. V. Lomonosov.

The defense will take place on "_"_1993 at _ hours

at a meeting of the specialized Council D. 002. 25. 01 for the award of the degree of Doctor of Economics at the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences at the address: 117259 MOSCOW st. Krzhizhanovsky 24/35, bldg. five

The dissertation can be found in the library of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Scientific Secretary of the Specialized Council, Candidate of Economic Sciences L. V. MAKAROVA

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF WORK

Topicality tech. The sharp decline in the birth rate at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a landslide decline in the number of births and the scale of natural increase, the beginning of an absolute decline in the population of Russia in 1992, brought the problem of explaining the reasons for the decline in the birth rate and assessing its most probable trends from among purely theoretical into the category of the most relevant and important strategic issues.

Along with a rather opportunistic aggravation of the significance of the problem, the relevance of the study is also due to other circumstances of a fundamental nature. Among them are both purely demographic and many others.

From a demographic point of view, the priority importance of fertility trends for population dynamics in modern conditions due to two reasons. First, the reduction in mortality to modern level means, despite its relatively overestimated indicators in Russia, the existence of fairly stable social control over it and the impossibility of returning to the spontaneous catastrophic nature of its dynamics. This is confirmed, in particular, by the weak fluctuations in the indicator of life expectancy of the population across the regions of Russia, in the presence of a fairly high variation in all other indicators. Calculations show that all fluctuations in mortality levels that are possible in modern conditions do not even remotely resemble in terms of the strength of the influence of the possibility of influencing the dynamics of the population of various fertility trends.

Secondly, the role of migration as a factor in demographic development has also changed in comparison, for example, with the 1930s, when it acted as a powerful catalyst for the demographic transition, mixing representatives of various social groups, religions, and religions in old and newly created cities and industrial centers. cultures and thus creating the necessary conditions and prerequisites for the formation of new norms of childbearing and reproductive behavior. In modern conditions, when the differences in birth rates among the majority of the Russian population are more quantitative than qualitative, that is, they reflect

only regional specifics of the same type of population reproduction, the possibilities of migration are narrowed down to a simple redistribution of the demographic potential of individual territories in favor of others.

Speaking about non-demographic reasons that actualize the problem of assessing fertility trends, we note first of all that the very approach to assessing the dynamics of the population of Russia, which has gained statehood, becomes fundamentally different in comparison even with the time when it was only part of a huge country, the population of which was the third in world in terms of numbers. Today and in the future, this is already an independent demographic aggregate, changing mainly due to its own internal sources(birth rate, death rate of the population) and, only to a certain extent, under the influence of external migration.

Among the external consequences of the collapse of the USSR from a demographic point of view, it is necessary to include a change in the historically established and relatively stable structure of the Euro-Asian demographic space that has existed for more than a century. Both the demographic and political consequences of this event, in all their diversity, have yet to be assessed. thread, but the most obvious are the following.

In Europe and the Slavic world, Russia has become the largest state in terms of population, which put it in new political and, in particular, demographic conditions. In Asia, where Russia has vast territories, today it can in no way compete both in terms of population and in terms of its growth rate with the largest states of this region.

In general, the change in a more local, but perhaps more significant demographic space for Russia itself can be considered in a similar way. former USSR. Here we are talking about a fundamental change in the nature of demographic interaction between the states - the former Soviet republics, which do not have full-fledged borders and legislation. If in the European part of the former Soviet Union Russia borders mainly on ethnically and demographically close Ukraine and Belarus, then in the Asian region the situation is fundamentally different. Literally in two or three years, there have already been

there have been serious changes that have affected the nature of the migration exchange: being part of the USSR, the Central Asian republics have long used Russia as a demographic donor, and now they have become the potentially largest source of return ethnic migration to Russia.

Being placed in qualitatively new political, economic, social and geographical conditions, Russia found itself simultaneously in an extremely difficult demographic situation, which is most adequately described by the word "crisis". It is today that the consequences of the fact that the birth rate of the population has fully affected. Russia for a long time (approximately from the end of the 60s) cannot guarantee a simple replacement of the population.

The crisis situation of the early 1990s only exacerbated, in combination with other objective factors, the general negative nature of demographic development trends. Despite the difficulty of predicting population dynamics in transition period when the behavioral models of large groups of the population are in a state of transformation, and the fertility trends they reflect, as well as other demographic processes, are under the influence a large number subjective or opportunistic factors, the study of fertility trends in Russia inevitably turns into a study of possible alternative scenarios - the future of demographic development.

The complexity of the problem is exacerbated by the fact that the study of fertility in Russia cannot be limited, unlike most other countries, to only a national dimension, despite the fact that from an ethnic point of view, it is, contrary to the prevailing stereotype, a mono-ethnic rather than a multinational state: the share of Russians according to the data the 1989 census exceeds 801, and together with Ukrainians and Belarusians living in Russia, Slavic nationalities make up over 85% of its population. And the point here is not in an attempt to belittle the importance of all other peoples living in Russia, but in determining the weight of a particular culture with its inherent norms of demographic, mainly reproductive, behavior in shaping fertility trends at the national level.

The existence of a number of fairly numerous nationalities with reproductive behavior models that differ from the main nationality, on the one hand, and the presence of regions in which these nationalities live compactly and constitute either the majority or a very significant mass of the population, on the other hand, turns the ethnic factor into one of the main when analyzing regional trends in fertility and population reproduction.

However, it is not only the ethnic factor itself that determines the differences in birth rates in the territorial context, although it acts as a leading one. The result of a long process of migration exchange between territories, or rather, the redistribution of natural growths created by the population of some territories in favor of others, less populated, was the existence in Russia of regions that differ greatly from each other. According to the characteristics of the sex and age structure of the population, which directly affects both the levels of intensity of individual demographic processes and the rate of change in the size of these populations themselves. At the same time, migrations, the main participants of which were Russians, also led to changes in the ethnic structures of many regions, the settlement and economic development of which was of a particularly intensive nature. All types listed above. territories (national, new settlement and development) differ both from Russia as a whole and from most other regions not only by the incompleteness of the demographic transition in the field of fertility and its overestimated levels, but also by less stable trends in this process.

Being interesting in itself, especially in the study of the history of the demographic transition, the ethno-regional aspect of the analysis of fertility trends in Russia acquires in modern conditions a relevance that was not characteristic of it before. This relevance is generated by new political conditions internal development Russian statehood, the increased attention paid to the revival of individual peoples, their culture and the formalization of their status. Under these conditions, ethnic differences in birth rates and in the growth rates of the number of individual nationalities, especially at the regional level - in national

republics, regions, districts - turn into a weighty political argument.

Thus, the ratio of global patterns of demographic development, on the one hand, and specific for Russia and its market features, on the other hand, determined a qualitatively new attitude to the problem of assessing the dynamics of fertility. The new political reality of Russia required a comprehensive rethinking of its demographic prospects.

Because of this, the purpose of the dissertation research was to identify the manifestation of the patterns of demographic transition in the specific conditions of Russia, the features of this process at certain stages of its demographic development, as well as regional differences in the trends in the modernization of the birth rate regime.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved in the course of the study:

1. Based on a critical analysis, evaluate the existing domestic and foreign concepts for determining the decline in fertility.

2. Install<эсновные этапы снижения рождаемости в России и изменение масштабов региональной дифференциации ее уровней.

3. To determine the contribution of the general and market factors determining the birth rate at certain stages of the demographic transition to the formation of its all-Russian and regional trends.

4. To identify the prerequisites for the introduction of demographic policy measures in the early 1980s and assess their potential in terms of modifying the birth rate and population reproduction regime, as well as the totality of their consequences.

5. To assess the contribution of various factors to the dynamics of the birth rate and its individual indicators in the 80s and 90s.

6. Develop hypotheses and substantiate the most probable trajectories of fertility dynamics in the near future, taking into account its previously observed trends, and identify the totality of their consequences for the dynamics of the total number and structural characteristics of the Russian population.

The conclusions obtained in solving the listed research problems are the subject of the dissertation defense.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was the concept of demographic transition, developed in the works of foreign I W. S. Thompson, F. W. Notshtein, J. S. Caldwell,

A. J. Cole and others] and domestic scientists I A. II Antonov,

V. A. Belova, G. A. Bondarskaya, E A. Borisova, B. D. Breev, D. I. Valentey, A. G. Vishnevsky, A. G. Volkov, L. E. Darsky, Kvasha A. Ya. V. I. Kozlova, V. G. Kostakova, S. I. Pirozhkova, V. P. Piskunova, L. L. Rybakovsky, R. I. Sifman, M. Ya. Sonina, S. G. Strumilina , V. S. Steshenko, A. P. Sudoplatov, B. Ts. Urlanis and others).

The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that for the first time in it:

A critical assessment and classification of existing foreign and. domestic concepts explaining the reasons for the decline in fertility, from the standpoint of the logic of their development, the accompanying political and social conditions, shows the process of their interpenetration and influence;

The features of the demographic transition in the field of fertility are revealed not only in the all-Russian, but also in the regional aspect. At the same time, regional differences are assessed through the prism of the manifestation of general patterns of the evolution of fertility, that is, not as differences between individual and average levels, but as typological ones;

Specific factors have been identified that caused both the acceleration of the transformation of reproductive behavior and the birth rate in Russia, and the regional differentiation of the types of this transformation, the essence of which is that they were, on the one hand, universal and supranational in nature, extreme socio-economic and political conditions, the violent nature of the methods of introducing new forms of lifestyle and norms of behavior), on the other hand, had, mainly at the final stages of the demographic transition, a pronounced ethnic character, which led to the presence of clear manifestations of regional heterogeneity in the trajectories of a decrease in the birth rate;

The contribution of various factors to the formation of demographic waves of the 1980s and early 1990s is assessed, the attempt to influence the general trend of fertility is ineffective, and the decisive role of timing shifts in the formation of the modern depopulation trajectory of the dynamics of natural

growth and population of Russia;

A forecast of the demographic development of Russia up to 2015 has been developed, which has shown the leading role of fertility dynamics in changing the size and structural characteristics of its population, and the main consequences of maintaining the current regime of fertility and population reproduction (acceleration of the aging of the population in general and labor potential in particular, the gradual destruction of the reproductive (reproductive) potential of the population, a steady decline in the total population of Russia).

Theoretical and practical significance. The results of the study were used in the preparation of a scientific report by the Center for Demography of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Trends in the demographic development of Russia: the 70s - 90s" (1991); when developing sections of the Comprehensive Forecast of the Socio-Economic and Scientific and Technical Development of the USSR for 1990-2015; in the scientific report of the Institute for Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 1993 "The Social and Socio-Political Situation in Russia. Analysis and Forecast".

The results obtained in the work can be used to develop birth control programs and family policy in Russia, in the development of strategies for the development of the social sphere, in particular health care and social security, and education.

Approbation of work. The main provisions and results of the dissertation. Reported at the 2nd Soviet-French demographic seminar (September 1986) (two reports were prepared: (1) "Socio-economic determination of fertility and the possibility of regulating reproductive behavior" (co-authored) and (2) "Sources information on fertility in the USSR"; at the 4th Soviet-French demographic seminar (June 1991) (the report "Regional and ethnic aspects of the evolution of fertility in Russia in the 19-20th centuries" was prepared); at the All-Union conference "Forecasting socio-economic development and demographic processes in the context of accelerating scientific and technological progress" (May 1988) (a report co-authored "Methodological issues of assessing the effectiveness of demographic policy"); at a meeting of the Center for Demographics of the Institute

socio-political studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The dissertation materials were included in the scientific report of the Center for Demography of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Trends in the demographic development of Russia: the 70s - 90s" (1991); in the Comprehensive Forecast of the Socio-Economic and Scientific and Technical Development of the SSOR for 1990-2015 (section "Forecast of Reproduction, Labor Potential and Health of the Population of the RSFSR for 1990-2015").

The volume and structure of the dissertation. The work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and an appendix.

The introduction substantiates the relevance of the topic, characterizes the degree of study of the problem, formulates the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research, as well as the positions that make up its scientific novelty and practical significance.

The first chapter - "Declining Birthrate in Russia: Conceptual and Statistical Aspects" - characterizes the main determinants and stages of the demographic transition in the field of fertility in Russia in national and regional aspects.

In the first "paragraph, an analysis is given of the most significant foreign and domestic explanatory concepts of the reasons for the decline in the birth rate from the point of view of the development of the theory of demographic transition; the history and logic of their emergence and development are shown, as well as the extent of the influence of foreign demographic thought and research on the process of transformation of domestic concepts.

The second paragraph describes the process of modernization of the birth rate regime in Russia under the influence of socio-economic and political factors, shows the role of the violent factor in accelerating the decline in the birth rate. The change in the internal structure of the space of births in the process of transition to small families is analyzed (an increase in the concentration of births, mainly of the first and second orders in the age range from 20 to 30 years, and then its narrowing to the boundaries of the age group of 20-24 years).

The third paragraph characterizes the demographic transition in the field of fertility in terms of variation, that is, the process of changing the scale of regional variation in levels

fertility in temporal and spatial dimensions.

The reviewed material allows us to state the following. The similarity of the trajectories of changes in the birth rate and the commonality of a significant number of factors that determined it led to significant coincidences in the logic of the development of domestic and foreign explanatory concepts of the reasons for the decline in the birth rate and the transformation of the type of reproductive behavior. A significant part of the differences was a direct consequence, on the one hand, of strong ideological pressure in the development of domestic demography as a social science, and on the other hand, attempts to adapt the logic of the concept to the specific socio-economic conditions of life in Russia.

The latter circumstance played a significant role in the formation of a specifically Russian model of demographic transition. Among the main factors that determined the high rates of decline in the birth rate and the transition to few children in comparison with other countries are: the late start of the demographic transition (second half of the 19th century) and its development in a completely different demographic environment (most European countries to this time were in a state of active modernization of the birth rate regime); extreme political conditions in which the formation of the transitional mechanism took place (World and Civil Wars, revolutions, breaking the socio-economic structure, political repressions, etc.); low standard of living, which contributed to the mass postponement of births; violent breaking of national and religious traditions and unification of standards of behavior, including marriage and family and reproductive.

Along with this, there were factors that contributed to the slowdown in the demographic transition, as well as the formation of stable regional differences in childbearing rates, reproductive behavior and, as a result, birth rates. The main one is ethnic, although its manifestation in a more or less pure form at the regional level began to be traced only in the post-war period, when the development of transitional processes reached a normal evolutionary level and ceased to be subjected to significant violent acceleration.

By the end of the 1970s, two generally one

heterogeneous in terms of the birth rate of a group of regions. The first should include the republics within Russia, which are characterized, on the one hand, by an ethnically mixed population, and, on the other hand, by an expanded population reproduction regime based on the norms of having an average number of children with residual manifestations of having many children. The second group includes regions and territories of Russia with a predominance of the Russian population, for which the regime of narrowed reproduction of the population by this moment has become a fait accompli and prerequisites have been created for the beginning of an absolute reduction in the population in the near future.

Within the framework of the second group, by the end of the 70s, two subsets were distinguished: on the one hand, the regions and territories of European Russia and the Urals, in which, with the depopulation level of fertility, all endogenous reserves of population growth were exhausted (high level of aging); on the other hand, the regions and territories of Siberia and the Far East, where, due to a younger age structure with similar birth rates, the prerequisites for more stable reproduction and positive natural population growth remained. A significant advantage of the latter is the less homogeneous ethnic composition of the population, which also contributes to maintaining higher birth rate.

For the entire population of Russia, by the end of the 1970s, a generally depopulation regime of fertility had developed with rather high rates of its regional variation, formed due to a huge gap in birth rates in the group of republics, on the one hand, and the group of territories and regions, on the other.

The second chapter - "The birth rate crisis in the 80s-90s" - is devoted to an analysis of the situation that arose in the dynamics of the birth rate after the enactment in 1981 of the Decree of the Central Committee of the CPSU and the Council of Ministers of the USSR "On measures to strengthen state assistance to families with children."

The first paragraph discusses the prerequisites for the adoption of the Decree, its goals and potential opportunities for influencing the birth rate both in Russia and in the USSR as a whole. The level of theoretical substantiation of the demographic policy, the main views on its goals and objectives that existed in Soviet demography on the eve of the adoption of the Decree are shown.

The second paragraph analyzes the shifts in the birth calendar and the dynamics of fertility rates in Russia and the regions, on the one hand, and evaluates the contribution of the efforts made to stimulate the birth rate in changing the scale of its regional variation, on the other.

The third paragraph provides data characterizing the influence of structural and other factors on the change in the number of births! and other indicators of the birth rate both in the years of its stimulated rise and in the period of decline. The negative role of the artificial rise in the birth rate in the 80s in the formation of de-population trends in the early 90s, as well as the regional differentiation of the latter, is shown.

The analysis showed that, from the point of view of the goals set for helping families with children (ensuring population growth based on an increase in the birth rate), in general, no serious qualitative changes were achieved. Both the general population and its individual typical parts turned out to be: very resistant to the impact, and all the observed: fluctuations in birth rates are quite within the framework that is permissible under its current regime: depopulation regions, such as: and the entire urban population of Russia as a whole, and remained at the depopulation level of fertility; regions where by the beginning of the 1980s the birth rate continued to remain at a level sufficient for expanded reproduction of the population, but showed a clear downward trend, did not go over to the level of real large families; the regions where the demographic transition practically did not begin did not react at all to the introduced measures.

Along with this, calendar shifts in the reproductive plans of a number of cohorts led to their almost complete exhaustion and gave rise to a pre-depopulation situation at the turn of the 80s and 90s. the number of deaths by the beginning of the absolute decline in the population of Russia already in 1992.

From the standpoint of the demographic history and perspective of Russia, on the one hand, and the factors that gave rise to the present state of affairs

the following can be stated.

First, the observed trends in Russia's demographic development are of a long-term nature. The socio-economic crisis that Russia is experiencing today acts as a strong catalyst for many negative phenomena, but its role in the deterioration of demographic dynamics cannot be exaggerated, much less absolutized. Such a narrow approach to the interpretation of demographic phenomena, which are essentially long-term and inertial in nature, can only lead to the emergence of easier options for regulating births and deaths.

Secondly, the permanent prospective nature of the depopulation that has begun means that its consequences will be numerous, severe and will affect all spheres of the life of society (the economy and the social sphere, military and foreign policy, etc.). The magnitude of the demographic losses will be much greater than the losses * from the economic crisis, and in the future it will take a period of time measured by generations to compensate for them.

Thirdly, the greatest drop in the birth rate will be among Russians and other nationalities close to them in terms of the type of reproductive behavior. Because of this, we can expect changes both in the ethnic composition of the Russian population and in its spatial distribution, which in turn will be unfavorable from economic, political and other points of view.

The third chapter - "Prospects for the evolution of the birth rate and the dynamics of the Russian population" - is devoted to assessing the dynamics of the birth rate in the next £0-25 years and analyzing its most significant consequences in terms of changes in the size and structure of the Russian population.

The first paragraph discusses the possibilities of individual indicators in predicting the birth rate trend, on the one hand, and population dynamics and its structural parameters, on the other; the rationale for the forecast period is given.

The second paragraph discusses the main factors that can influence fertility trends and, as a result, the reproduction of the Russian population (the consequences of the timing shift, changes in the structures of female reproductive contingents, the socio-economic and political crisis, the continuation of the demographic transition in a number of regional and ethnic populations).

of Russia) taking into account the chosen forecast horizon and at certain stages of the forecast period. The substantiation of the hypotheses of changes in the levels of distribution in certain age groups and the total fertility rate is given.

In conclusion, calculations of the trajectories of the dynamics of the birth rate and the corresponding trajectories of changes in the population of Russia and the main age groups are given, and the totality of the consequences of the development of depopulation trends for the reproductive and labor potential of the country is analyzed.

Considering the results of the forecast, the following should be noted. Forecasting the dynamics of fertility and population is associated with a number of methodological (lack of a concept describing the interaction of demographic and socio-economic variables) and methodological, primarily informational, difficulties. Nevertheless, the evidence of the prospect of changes in fertility levels, based on the analysis of its long-term trends, makes it possible to obtain quite acceptable results based on the extrapolation of these trends.

The main difficulty in accurately predicting specific numbers of births and birth rates for the coming years is a significant distortion of its dynamics under the influence of the previous calendar shift and the exhaustion of the reproductive potentials of reproductive cohorts. A significant contribution to the distortion of the age-specific fertility trend is made by the socio-economic crisis.

The calculated trajectories of changes in birth rates for the forecast period showed that the depopulation trend, which has been leading since 1992 to an absolute reduction in the population of Russia, will not only continue, but will be intensified by the action of a large number of factors.

The main and most negative consequence of the decline in the birth rate will be, in addition to a decrease in the population itself, a change in its age composition and the destruction of the reproductive potential, that is, the active aging of the female reproductive contingents.

Along with this, there will be further aging of the entire population ■ as a whole, and a decline in labor potential. Since the depopulation

If the population restructuring will primarily affect the European part of Russia, then the regions where the bulk of the industrial and intellectual potential of Russia is concentrated will be under attack.

In this regard, one of the most urgent tasks is the development of a concept for the demographic development of Russia in the new conditions of population evolution, differentiated depending on regional demographic parameters, on the one hand, and on the strategic socio-economic and political goals of the development of the state, on the other.

In conclusion, the main conclusions arising from the content of the dissertation are given; shows the ratio of general patterns that manifested in the Russian model of the demographic transition, its most pronounced features and particular or individual manifestations of the dynamics of the birth rate both in the transition and in the post-transition period.

PUBLICATIONS ON THE THEME OF THE THESIS

1. The study of demographic behavior is a new stage in the development of demographic theory. /Demographic behavior and the possibility of social influence on it under socialism. M., 1987, 1.0 p. l. (in collaboration with L. L. Rybakovekim)

2. Demographic situation - concept and structure. /Problems of the demographic development of the USSR. M., 1988, 1.0 p. l.

3. Methodological issues of evaluating the effectiveness of demographic policy. /Materials of the All-Union Conference "Forecasting socio-economic development and demographic processes in the conditions of accelerating scientific and technological progress. M.-Yerevan, 1988, 0.5 pp. (co-authored with L. L. Rybakovsky)

4. Reproductive behavior: explanatory concepts and possibilities of influence. / Fertility and family. Soviet-French Dialogue (in French). M. , 1990, 1.0 p. l. (co-authored with L. L. Rybakovsky)

5. Sources of information about fertility in the USSR. / Fertility and family. Soviet-French Dialogue (in French). M. , 1990, 1.0 p. l.

6. The demographic situation in the USSR in the 1980s./"Sociological Research", N4, 1991, 1.0 p.

7. Actual problems of demographic strategy and priority directions of its implementation. / Population of the USSR: 80s. M. 1991, 0.5 p. l.

8. Prospects for the birth rate and reproduction of the population I substantiate forecast hypotheses). / Population of the USSR: 80s. M. 1991, 0.5 p. l.

9. Birth rate dynamics and population reproduction Rho< сийской Федерации. /Тенденции демографического развития Росси] 70-е-90-е годы. М. , 1991, 0,8 п. л.

10. Prospects for reproduction and changes in the number of n; villages of the Russian Federation. /Trends of demographic development! tia of Russia: 70s-90s. M., 1991, 0.5 p. l. (co-authored by S. V. Adamts, N. M. Stolyarov)

I. The demographic situation in the Russian Federation: comp.< яние и прогноз./"Этнополитический вестник России", N2, 1992, О п. л. (в соавт. с Л. Л. Рыбаковским) -

The total volume of publications is more than 30 printed sheets.

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COURSE WORK

by discipline Demography

on the topic Analysis of the development of fertility in the Russian Federation

Introduction

Section 1. Stages of development of the birth rate in Russia

Section 3 Regional features birth rate in Russia

Section 4. Fertility and population reproduction in Russia

Conclusion

Introduction

Birth rate - the ratio of the number of births to the number of inhabitants in a given territory.

Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical conditionality of this process. It establishes and studies the patterns of population reproduction, the patterns of changes in its size, composition, territorial distribution and condition, as well as the causes of these changes. An unfavorable demographic situation has developed in the Russian Federation, which necessitates the development and implementation of priority measures aimed at mitigating this problem.

All the changes in the Russian birth rate that have occurred over the past hundred years often lead to a decrease in its level. Indeed, Russia has experienced grandiose changes - the fall in the final birth rate amounted to 4.5 - 6.3 times, depending on the method of assessment. The decline in the birth rate in itself is a clear indicator of radical and rapid changes in the family, society and state, which have taken place over the course of the life of only three or four demographic generations of Russians (the length of the demographic generation is about 30 years).

On the one hand, the decline in the birth rate was a historically inevitable response to the general and consistent modernization of society in all areas, on the other hand, the transition from high to low birth rates led to different rates of population change, to a fundamental transformation of the demographic balance between generations (the quantitative ratio between age groups children, parents and grandparents), which, in turn, initiates and accelerates the corresponding socio-economic and political changes. It is the decline in the birth rate to the current unprecedented low level that is the central point of the current demographic challenge to socio-economic systems in developed countries.

At present, this problem is more relevant than ever for Russian reality, because it is a well-known fact that it is not possible to raise a healthy, developed socio-economic society without touching on demographic issues. Almost all mass media talk about the demographic state of the Russian Federation and the main directions of the state's activities in this area. For example, at present, state payments to parents are provided for the birth of a second child, and the amount is quite high, in some regions of our country, you can even purchase housing for this amount, we will study this side in more detail later, but one cannot but agree that it is unnecessary to have a huge stock of knowledge to understand that this is one of the methods for solving the demographic problem on the part of the state.

Chapter 1 Stages of development of the birth rate in Russia.

All the changes in the Russian birth rate that have occurred over the past hundred years often lead to a decrease in its level. Indeed, Russia experienced tremendous changes - the fall in the final birth rate was 4.5 - 6.3 times, depending on the method of assessment: from 7.5 live births per one conditional average woman in her entire life at the end of the 19th century to 1.2 children - at the end of the 20th century; from 7.2 children per woman born in the late 1860s to 1.6 children per woman in real cohorts of the late 1960s. radical and rapid changes in the family, society and state, which took place during the life of only three or four demographic generations of Russians (the length of the demographic generation is about 30 years).

The study of the historical type of socio-cultural regulators of demographic behavior (norms, values, prescriptions, beliefs), acting both at the level of society and at the family-individual level (decision-making system and methods of controlling fertility), provides an answer to the following fundamental questions: what is sustainability and what are the limits of acceptable variability of fertility parameters in a particular socio-cultural environment. The study of the transformation of socio-demographic relations between people in the process of transition from one historically stable type of fertility to another provides the key to understanding the need and direction of present and future changes in the fertility model.

Causes of the current state of fertility

The following causes of the demographic crisis are most often cited:

1 Economic reforms and related economic instability

2 Democratic reforms and related processes to change people's minds

3 Reproductive health of the population

4 Activities of specialized organizations aimed at limiting the size of the population (including the Russian Association of Family Planning) and their support by government agencies

5 Activities of commercial pharmaceutical companies to promote the use of contraceptives.

First demographic stage

The decline in the birth rate in Russia began at a higher level and later than in most developed countries. The delay from European countries is on average 30-40 years. The initial impetus for the decline in the birth rate was the great "emancipation" and agrarian reform in Russia, initiated by decree "from above" in 1861. The fall in the birth rate went at a record pace for Europe - about 70 years, Russia overcame the backlog, having completed the transition to a low birth rate (2 children per woman) at the same time as other developed countries - by the mid-1960s. The first generations with a post-transitional birth rate are women born in the second half of the 1920s and in the 1930s).

The decline in the birth rate of real generations in Russia was monotonous almost throughout the transition. Some violation of this monotony can be found only in the cohorts of 1890-1895. birth. On the contrary, birth rates for conditional generations (the traditional total fertility rate) showed high volatility against the background of a general downward trend. Fluctuations in indicators for conditional generations, caused by the specific features of certain calendar years: catastrophic changes in the socio-economic environment and/or state intervention in the demographic sphere, reflect, first of all, strong shifts in the calendar of births. Sharp declines and subsequent no less sharp compensatory rises in market indicators well characterize instantaneous changes in the rate of family formation, but mask the general trend in the evolution of fertility. In Russia during the 20th century, four cases of deviation of the total fertility rate from the trend can be counted: three under the influence of catastrophic circumstances and one as a result of the family policy of the state.

The transition to a low birth rate in Russia, in our opinion, was largely accelerated by a continuous chain of social cataclysms that accompanied the accelerated modernization of society. The point is not so much that the standard of living of the population fell during crises, but that during these periods a mass experience of individual birth control was acquired. The reproductive behavior of partners has constantly adapted to the changing reality. The need for frequent changes in the calendar of births and marriages brought to life specific instrumental methods and methods of birth control. Unfortunately, in Russia this resulted in a massive spread of abortion practice. The law of 1936, which prohibited artificial abortion at the request of a woman, was in many ways a naive attempt by a totalitarian state to reverse the downward trend in the birth rate, to "correct" the demographic situation after the crisis caused by "collectivization". We estimate its effect in raising market indicators (number of births, total fertility rate) in 1937 at no more than 8%. In subsequent years, the effect of the ban, of course, was even lower. In terms of the final birth rate of real generations, the role of this factor, apparently, is zero, reduced to shifts in the birth calendar for some women, caught by surprise by the new circumstance.

Second demographic stage

Under the second demographic transition, some experts understand a simple transition from the currently dominant model of a two-child family to a model of a family with one child (or even to mass childlessness). This interpretation of the latest trends not only simplifies the situation, but may also turn out to be simply erroneous in the long run.

In reality, today we have a poor idea of ​​the ideal quantitative model of the family and fertility, which will become dominant among future generations. But what we already know for sure is that the formation of a family and the birth of offspring will occur to an ever lesser extent under the influence of changes in macroeconomic and socio-political parameters of the environment that do not depend on the individual. In his demographic behavior, a person will most likely be guided by non-materialistic values, "tuning" the individual calendar of demographic events to change specific and diverse life circumstances.

At the level of demographic indicators, the second demographic transition manifests itself in the form of an increase in the average age of marriage and motherhood, an increase in the intervals between births, an increase in the role of births outside of official marriage, an increase in the proportion of people who have never entered into a registered marriage and have not had a single child. The traditional fusion of three types of behavior: sexual matrimonial and reproductive is finally becoming a thing of the past.

The instrumental basis of the new stage of fertility control was the mass dissemination of a system of effective methods of family planning, which allows the individual to freely distribute reproductive events in time. Literally before our eyes, the contraceptive revolution, having gone through several stages, develops into a systematic process of introducing more and more new achievements in the field of high technologies into the practice of family planning. Recall that family planning is not limited to contraceptive protection, it is associated with the regulation of individual fertility as such, including with the help of gene technologies.

The latest trends in the evolution of fertility, which we interpret as the beginning of the second demographic transition, in Russia can be identified by the following conclusion:

ü rapid decline in fertility in the youngest age groups;

l postponing the birth of the firstborn in real generations (Table 4);

l the rapid increase in the age at first marriage;

ü a strong reduction in the number of abortions against the backdrop of falling birth rates under the age of 25;

ь increase in the contribution of older age groups of mothers to the final birth rate

Third demographic stage.

The third stage of the demographic transition is characterized by the stabilization of mortality at a low level due to the achievements of socio-economic development (accessibility of medical care, social programs, employment growth, rising living standards, etc.) and a slowdown in the birth rate, however, natural population growth is still sufficient high. The fourth stage is characterized by stably low mortality rates and a birth rate stabilized at an average or low level, as a result of which a low or even negative rate of natural increase is formed, the population increases slowly or decreases.

Low level of economic development, high birth and death rates, short life expectancy (36-40 years). As certain social and economic transformations improve the quality of life, the level of medical care rises, and this contributes to a significant decrease in mortality rates, and life expectancy increases. With the development of industrialization processes (especially the involvement of women in social work) and urbanization (which affects living conditions), natural growth rates are declining.

Section 2. Dynamics of the birth rate in Russia

In 2001, the total fertility rate (total fertility rate) in Russia was 1.35 births per woman. This is a low figure, however, it is precisely such low rates that are now characteristic of many industrialized countries.

We have a widespread opinion that the sharp drop in the birth rate in Russia in the 1990s. - a consequence of the economic and social crisis of the transition period and that as soon as the crisis is over, the birth rate will begin to rise. However, world experience does not justify such expectations. Many quite prosperous European countries have just recently gone through the same ten-year period of a sharp decline in fertility (Fig. 1), and it has not been replaced by an increase anywhere. Russia, in a certain sense, repeats the path traveled by many others.

Fig. 1 Stage of a sharp decline in the birth rate in Russia and in some other countries

Therefore, when determining the "fork" of possible changes in the birth rate in Russia for the next 50 years, one has to take into account the possibility of maintaining its low level for a long time. Accordingly, the total fertility rate (TFR) equal to 1.4 births per woman, unchanged throughout the entire period, was taken as the lower limit of probable changes.

However, our current knowledge of the mechanisms that shape the dynamics of fertility is not so deep that we can completely exclude the possibility of its increase after some time. This possibility was taken into account when determining the upper limit of the "fork" - 2 births per woman by 2050 with a gradual increase in the indicator from 1.3 to 2.0 over 50 years (Table 3).

Table No. 1. - Total fertility rate in Russia in 1959-2000 and forecast scenarios up to 2050

The adopted forecast "fork" may seem overly optimistic: it is more difficult to imagine an increase in the total fertility rate to 2.0 now than its fall below 1.3 (in fact, it is already below this level). But still, such a "fork" probably covers the main range of possible changes in the birth rate for the next half century.

It should be noted that since the beginning of the year there has been a steady increase in the proportion of second and subsequent children in Russian families.

The average age of women in labor is 26 years. At the same time, the first child is most often born at the age of 24, the second at 29, and the third and fourth children in the family are born by mothers aged 33 and older.

It is also worth noting that the surge in the birth rate occurred in the spring: 4,483 children were born in May, in the same month the largest number of second and subsequent children in the family pleased their parents with their birth - 1,668 children.

As part of the implementation of the activities of the priority national project "Health", in the medical institutions of the district, the introduction of the medical expert system "Prenatal Audit" has begun in order to improve the quality and timeliness of detection of congenital malformations of the fetus, hereditary and chromosomal pathology.

In 33 medical and preventive institutions of the Okrug, where dynamic monitoring of pregnant women is carried out, it is planned to install an automated workplace for an obstetrician-gynecologist connected via telecommunications with an automated workplace for an expert doctor of the medical genetic consultation of the District Cardiological Dispensary.

It is worth noting that this year 48 pupils of the district Orphanage were placed under guardianship and guardianship.

Reproductive behavior is a concept that denotes a system of actions and relationships that mediate the birth or refusal to give birth to a child in or out of wedlock. There are three main types of reproductive behavior - large (need for 5 or more children), average (need for 3-4 children) and small (need for 1-2 children). Of the two factors that determine the number of children in a family: the conditions and standard of living and the need for children, the latter plays the leading role. If the number of children in a family corresponds to the needs of the spouses in children, then no improvement in living conditions will lead to an increase in this number. But if the number of children available is less than the level of need, then improving the conditions for the realization of this need can increase the number of births.

The need for children is the socio-psychological state of the individual, when without children and their proper number and gender, a person cannot take place as a person. The need for children, attitudes towards children are internal regulators of reproductive behavior, while social norms of childbearing are external determinants of an individual's attitude towards children. Empirical studies of reproductive attitudes show that economic motives for fertility are leading for the need for 5 or more children, social motives for the need for 3-4 children, and psychological motives for the need for 1-2 children.

Undoubtedly, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia in recent years is a reaction to the socio-political and economic processes taking place in the country. The worsening economic situation and social tension lead to the abandonment of second and third children, to the postponement of their birth. The uncertainty of social and economic prospects, the insecurity of the individual, the decline in living standards and fear for loved ones lead to a modification of demographic behavior. People refuse the desired number of children, postpone births until better times, postpone marriages or replace them with other, less stable unformed unions and other forms of relationships.

Section 3 Regional features of fertility in Russia

The Russian space itself is so large and diverse, and the population, infrastructure and production, it would seem, are "smeared" so unevenly over it that the demographic differences should be extremely striking. However, the demographic "gaps" between the regions with the best and worst indicators of economic and social life are still less pronounced than one might expect.

The gradual implementation and completion of the demographic transition in Russia (situations when there is a decrease in fertility and mortality and simple reproduction begins) softens regional differences in the reproduction of the population. They were maximum in the 1960s and 1970s, when some territories had already switched to a one-two-child family model (Central Russia, the North-West), while others, as a rule, were less urbanized, traditionally agrarian, still existed with four children. five-child families (republics of the North Caucasus, southern Siberia).

There is now some increase in the birth rate - the total fertility rate (TFR) in 2004 in Russia amounted to 1,340 births per woman against 1,157 births per woman.

Traditionally, the birth rate of rural women is slightly higher than that of urban women. Gradually, however, the difference between them is erased - now (2004) it is 0.418 births, while 20 years ago, in 1985-1986, it was 1.129.

The highest birth rates are characteristic of Altai and Tyva, a number of North Caucasian republics (Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Chechnya), autonomous districts of Siberia (Ust-Ordynsky and Aginsky Buryat, Taimyr, Evenk) and the Far East (Chukotsky, Koryaksky).

Only in 9 Russian regions with a total population of 1,520 thousand people (1.06% of the country's population) does the TFR exceed two children per woman, but nowhere does it reach three. Of the North Caucasian republics, such indicators are recorded by the statistical authorities only in Chechnya (2.965). Even in regions with once high birth rates - Dagestan and Kalmykia - TFRs of over 2,000 are now seen only in rural areas. Urban residents of these republics demonstrate almost the average Russian birth rate.

Reproductive attitudes and childbearing norms have ethnic characteristics. According to the All-Russian population census of 2002, the average number of children born 5 exceeds 3,000 children per 1,000 women in only one Russian ethnic group - the inhabitants of Dagestan - the Didoy Avars, whose total number is about 20 thousand people. Relatively high birth rates are noted by Kurds (dispersed geographically throughout the country), Nenets (Yamal-Nenets, Nenets, Dolgano-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs), Tabasarans (Dagestan), Ingush (Ingushetia, Chechnya), Komi-Izhma (Komi).

The total fertility rate, as an indicator highly dependent on the age structure of the population, is less informative. However, he also reveals the same picture - in the old-developed and urbanized European center, fewer children are born than in more traditional agrarian regions. But regional differences are not great - from 8-9‰ in the regions of the Center to 17-20‰ in Altai, Tyva, Dagestan.

In 2004, life expectancy in Russia was 65.3 years for both sexes, including: 58.9 years for men and 72.3 years for women. At the same time, in the Koryak Autonomous Okrug, it is only 53.1 years - such a life expectancy in Russia was in the distant pre-war years. In another 6 Russian regions - mostly autonomous districts and republics of the eastern part of the country - life expectancy does not reach the 60-year bar.

The second zone of trouble is localized in the north-west of the European part of the country - Tver, Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov, Kaliningrad regions, Karelia - they are a dense conglomerate of regions with life expectancy within 60-62 years (on average for both sexes).

The highest life expectancy (68-76 years) is shown by the republics of the North Caucasus, Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Belgorod region, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. The relative well-being of the mortality situation in the Caucasus is apparently related both to the ethno-cultural characteristics of the region and to the quality of population statistics.

Birth rate by region in 2007

Table number 2

According to the 2002 census, 73% of Russians are urban dwellers, 27% are rural dwellers. This ratio was the same in the previous 1989 census. One of the main features of the demographic situation of recent decades in the country is the concentration of the urban population in a small number of densely populated centers. More than 60 percent of Russia's population is concentrated in three federal districts - Central (26%), Volga (22%) and Southern (16%). The smallest is the Far Eastern Federal District - 4.6% of the population. A third of the population of Russia is concentrated in the largest cities - "millionaires" (13 cities): in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Volgograd, Perm . Moscow is one of the 20 largest cities in the world.

From table No. 2, we see that changes in the birth rate by region in 2007 increased significantly, these are Altai, Karachay-Cherkessia, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Kursk Region, Mari El, Saratov Region, Chelyabinsk Region, these regions exceed 10% of the birth rate . The number of births also increased, with an average increase of about 15%.

Chapter 4. Birth rate and population reproduction in Russia

The growth in the birth rate in Russia in 2008 amounted to about 7%, while the shortage of places in kindergartens decreased by 30%, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said during a live conversation with Russians on the Rossiya TV channel.

"This year, the largest birth rate over the past 15 years - an increase of about 7%," he said.

Table number 3. - Fertility

From table No. 3, we see that in a fairly short period of time, and this is 6 years, the birth rate began to increase significantly. These indicators add up positively to the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia.

Natural growth and the level of population reproduction are determined by the ratio between births and deaths. The concept of population reproduction in a broad sense includes the renewal and development of the composition of the population by sex and age, social groups, nationality and other characteristics. The mode of reproduction is determined by the socio-economic conditions of the population, reproductive attitudes and traditions.

Natural population growth is a change in the population under the influence of fertility and mortality (excluding the migration process).

The reproduction of the population is the constant renewal of its size and structure through the natural replacement of outgoing generations with new ones and the transition of one structural part to another.

The reproduction of the population in demography is called the constant renewal of the population. People die, new ones are born to replace them. Such a banal description does not allow us to understand the reasons why the population of Russia grew until the 19th century, and now it is falling, so much so that in a hundred years, a thousand-year-old Russia may disappear from the geographical map.

Gross reproduction rate of the population.

As for the frequency of the birth of girls in women of different ages, then, generally speaking, it is different. However, it will not be a big error to assume that the proportion of girls among those born is the same for all ages and is approximately 0.487-0.488. From here you can get a summary characteristic of the birth rate of the female population, which is the gross reproduction rate of the population - the number of girls that each woman will give birth to on average over the entire reproductive period. When calculating the gross coefficient, it is assumed that there is no mortality of women until the end of the reproductive age.

The gross reproduction rate of the population can be interpreted in various ways: firstly, as an age-standardized birth rate ...; secondly, as the average number of daughters that a group of women who began life at the same time could give birth to, if all of them lived to the end of the childbearing period; thirdly, as the ratio between the number of women of one generation, for example, at the age of 15, to the number of their daughters at the same age, provided that there is no mortality within the childbearing period; fourth, as the ratio between female births in two successive generations, assuming that no one dies between the beginning and end of the reproductive period.

Net reproduction rate of the population.

However, if each of the women of reproductive age gives birth to an average of R daughters, this does not mean that the number of the generation of daughters will be R times larger or smaller than the number of the generation of mothers. After all, not all of these daughters will live to the age at which their mothers were at the time of birth. And not all daughters will make it to the end of their reproductive years. This is especially true in countries with high mortality, where up to half of newborn girls may not survive to the start of the reproductive period.

Generation length

Generation length is the average time interval separating generations. It is equal to the average age of the mother at the birth of daughters who survive at least to the age in which their mothers were at the time of their birth.

We can say that the depopulation in Russia has changed from latent, latent to overt and open. And this did not depend at all on the specific political and socio-economic situation of the 1990s. of the last century, no matter what the so-called "nationally concerned scientists" and self-styled "patriots" of any color, from the ultra-left to the ultra-right, may say. The beginning of depopulation in our country was predetermined by the processes that took place in the population throughout the 20th century, especially in the post-war period, when there was a sharp drop in the need for children, which caused a rapid and deep drop in the birth rate. This is exactly what happens in all developed countries. Approximately one third of the world's countries have a birth rate that is less than what is necessary for simple reproduction of the population. In other words, in these countries, as in Russia, there is a hidden or obvious depopulation. And most of these countries are those in which the standard of living of the population is much higher than in our country.

Being involved in progress is, of course, impressive. But the question arises whether this is progress. Can the inexorable and rapid fall into the abyss of depopulation be called progress? Unfortunately, many demographers either ignore these damned questions, or treat the negative demographic dynamics in our country at best conciliatory, and at worst, even believing current demographic trends (especially the situation with fertility) to be something quite normal.

Section 5. Prospects for the development of the birth rate in Russia

Any policy is a combination of goals and means to achieve them. The purpose of demographic policy is to influence the development of the birth rate in the state. An increase in the birth rate is a process of quantitative and qualitative changes in the demographic sphere, the complication of its connections and relationships, which leads to its transition from one qualitative state to another, better state. Activities to influence the birth rate is an organic component of socio-economic development in general and includes the reproduction of the population.

The main directions in this aspect:

- influence on working conditions - determination of the boundaries of working age, the scale of employment of the able-bodied part of the population, the length of the working day and the working week, labor protection, vocational education, training and retraining of personnel;

- improving the living conditions of all segments of the population: the level of wages and real incomes, housing conditions, consumer services, the availability of cultural achievements, medical care, the growth of free time;

Demographic policy as an integral part of population policy aims to influence the reproduction of the population. It is aimed at achieving and maintaining the desired type of this reproduction and is carried out through the implementation of special measures to influence all the demographic processes that make up the reproduction of the population, and the factors of these processes. Demographic policy is the most important element in the management of population development.

As noted in the UN document "Recommendations for the subsequent World Population Action Plan", the main direction of population policy is family planning, which is understood as a voluntary activity to achieve the desired number of children by the family on the basis of conscious motherhood. The family has social value not only in connection with the reproductive behavior of the spouses. In the family, the upbringing of children is carried out, their orientation towards certain norms of social behavior, certain educational goals, and the type of future professional activity. Therefore, the family, the birth of children, health, upbringing and education of children are the center of demographic policy.

State assistance to families with children, support for the institution of the family and marriage, stimulation of the birth rate are priority areas of demographic policy. Their implementation must be accompanied by ensuring the exercise of the human right to freely and responsibly decide on the number of their children and the frequency of their birth. The freedom of the individual and the family in shaping their reproductive orientation is the main limitation in demographic policy.

As you know, in the Russian Federation there was a tendency to a sharp decrease in the birth rate, and naturally, this problem could not be left without the attention of the country's top leadership, which prompted the adoption of a number of measures to develop the birth rate in the Russian Federation, namely:

The Federal Law “On Additional Measures of State Support for Families with Children”, adopted by the State Duma on October 12, 2006, according to which an amount of 250 thousand rubles will be credited to the individual accounts of women who have given birth to their second child since January 1, 2007. This money can be used to purchase housing or pay for the child's education, but not before 2010. Unspent amounts are sent to the R.F. Pension Fund. and added to the future pensions of mothers. This innovation will encourage many families to have a second child, and thereby satisfy not only their own interests, but also ensure the growth of the population of the state;

- subprogram "Providing housing for young families" of the federal target program "Housing" for 2002-2010, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 31, 2005 No. 865.

The Concept provides an assessment of the current demographic situation in the Russian Federation and trends in its development, defines the principles of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation (which are based on the complexity of solving demographic problems, choosing the most problematic issues for each direction of demographic development, taking into account regional features of demographic development, coordinating the actions of legislative and executive bodies of state power at the federal, regional and municipal levels), as well as the main tasks of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation.

The main tasks include the following:

1. Reducing the death rate of citizens, especially in working age;

2. Reducing the level of maternal and infant mortality, strengthening the reproductive health of the population, the health of children and adolescents;

3. Preserving and strengthening the health of the population, increasing the duration of an active life, creating conditions and shaping motivation for a healthy lifestyle, a significant reduction in the incidence of socially significant and dangerous diseases for others, improving the quality of life of patients suffering from chronic diseases and the disabled;

4. Increasing the birth rate;

5. Strengthening the institution of the family, reviving and preserving the spiritual and moral traditions of family relations;

6. Regulation of internal and external migration, attraction of migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration.

The concept also defines comprehensive measures implemented in three stages, the result of which should be an improvement in the demographic situation in the country.

Such measures, in particular, are: the formation of motivation among various groups of the population, especially among the younger generation, to lead a healthy lifestyle; carrying out preventive measures for the purpose of early detection of health disorders; early diagnosis of diseases using advanced technologies; increasing the availability and quality of free medical care; improving the material, technical and staffing of health care institutions; application of new innovative treatment technologies and development of high-tech medical care; introduction of comprehensive health and rehabilitation programs; promotion of family values, strengthening state support for families with children; creation of conditions for the integration of immigrants into Russian society.

Thus, summing up the results of the current demographic policy, we can say with confidence that this problem of Russian reality has been given worthy attention by the state.

This can be evidenced by the results that our country has achieved in the course of the implementation and implementation of the above measures to increase the birth rate, for example, in January-September of this year, 72 thousand more babies were born in Russia than in the same period last year, and the birth rate growth was 6.6%.

The trend towards an increase in the age of marriage, the age of birth of the first and subsequent children, although with some slowdown, continues even in countries that have advanced far along the path of the second demographic transition. Over several decades, the average age at which marriage was registered and the age at which the first child was born have increased in Western countries by three to four years, exceeding 26 years for a woman (and 27 years in more than a dozen countries), and registration of marriage often follows the birth of a child. , and not vice versa. If at the beginning of the process of evolution of the age model of fertility, the contribution of mothers under 25 years of age to the final fertility rates in different countries varied within 40-60%, today in 11 countries it already amounted to 21-30%, and in 10 countries - 20% and less.

Drawing No. 2

The lag of the Eastern European and Transcaucasian countries is still more than obvious. On average, women in this part of Europe marry for the first time and give birth to their first child four to five years earlier than in the West, and the share of births at young ages (under 25) is up to half or more of the total number of births. How much the age model of fertility in Russia still differs from the model in Western countries with similar fertility levels.

Drawing No. 3

Generalized characteristics of the population of Russia in 1960-2040. (forecast based on existing trends)

What are the characteristics of this hypothetical population (see Fig. 3-4)?

· The proportion of children under 15 will be halved, while the proportion of the elderly will increase by one and a half times.

· The reproductive potential of the population will be practically exhausted.

· The economic burden on the working-age population will increase significantly.

Social institutions are extremely conservative.

The core of the latest trends in fertility is the search for an optimal model of the human life cycle that meets the realities of modern life, including: high requirements for education and the level of material well-being, the mutual participation of spouses in the formation of family income and the fulfillment of family responsibilities, the growing social and material independence of children and the elderly, increasing control over human fertility, etc.

A survey was created in which Russians were asked how many children they would like to have. The data are presented in Table No. 4.

Table No. 4 Attitudes of Russians on the number of children in a family

Conclusion

Having reviewed and analyzed the material relating to the issue of fertility for a given period, and this problem occupies a central place in the demographic situation of the country, we can draw the following conclusions.

If you look closely at the main direction of state policy focused on increasing the birth rate, you can see that it lies precisely in the socio-economic sphere, and not in the trend of globalization of world society, and the desire of women to keep up with men. Therefore, it can be definitely said that the concept, and then the program itself, should be based on the principles of stimulating the birth rate, developing a network of children's and preschool institutions, and the widespread use of family forms of raising orphans and children without parental care. In addition, for a real solution to the problem of fertility, it is necessary to form a healthy lifestyle among the population, engage young people in physical education and sports, protect them from alcoholism and drug addiction, create new jobs and provide people with safe working conditions, and help young families to purchase housing. To this we can add almost all measures that provide the population with a high quality of life - from gasification of the village and road construction to improving the environmental situation and increasing transport security. And do not forget about the high mortality rate of the population today, uncontrolled migration, the “aging” of the nation. The effectiveness of this concept will be only in the case when the demographic problem is solved in a complex, and not in one of its parts.

But at the same time, during the transition to a new level of demographic development, and, consequently, the transition to another, favorable state of the socio-economic and economic spheres of life of the population, it will require a huge attraction of financial, human and other resources, which, unfortunately, the Russian Federation does not have, at this level of development, or has, but there is no way to use them.

All of the above is the material part of the problem, but we should not forget about the psychological factor, which also has a huge impact. The mentality of a Russian person is built in such a way that he solves the problem at the moment of its appearance, and not in the background, this situation once again confirms this. Therefore, in order to implement the concept of Russia's development, in addition to the above, it is necessary to responsibly approach and implement this program, taking into account the life, culture and mentality of the citizens of the Russian Federation. And I have no doubt that if we approach the solution of the problem from all sides, then we will soon be able to solve the problem of demography and build a truly social legal state, i.e. something in which the constitutional principles are observed by everyone, and is equal for everyone, not in words, but in deeds showing their status, prescribed in the Constitution of the Russian Federation.

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Introduction

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the current demographic situation

2. Increasing the birth rate: how to increase the effect of government measures

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The relevance of research. Low fertility in our country is not a new problem. And its causes are only to a small extent connected with the difficulties of the socio-economic development of our country in recent years. The birth rate in Russia has been declining for more than 100 years. In the first half of the XX century. in parallel with the birth rate, the death rate also decreased, so the reduction in the number of children in Russian families for a long time remained imperceptible. But in the second half of the century, the decline in mortality slowed down and the problem of having few children began to manifest itself more and more clearly.

The relationship between the number of children in a family and the standard of living is very complex. It may seem like a paradox, but the better people live, the fewer children they want to have on average. This correlation has been manifested for a long time and universally in all countries of the world, regardless of the social system, geographical location, race, nationality, and so on. It was noted by the English economist Adam Smith and Karl Marx.

In general, the decline in the birth rate in Russia is in line with the general decline in the birth rate in all industrialized and urbanized countries, and, as a rule, Russia was ahead of most of them in this decline and is now among the industrialized countries with the lowest number of children in the family.

Thus, purpose of our study is the birth rate in Russia.

Based on the goal, determined tasks:

To characterize the birth rate as a determining factor of the modern demographic situation;

Identify effective government measures to increase the birth rate.

The work used various scientific and educational literature on fertility issues. Various publications in periodicals and on Internet sites are also of interest.

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the current demographic situation

The main determining factor in the current demographic situation is the birth rate, which has fallen in our country to the lowest level in the world. The total fertility rate (the number of children born on average to one woman of a conditional generation in her entire life) amounted to only 1,230 children in 1997, while only for simple reproduction, i.e. one in which the population does not grow, but also does not decrease, the required average number of births per woman in her entire life, regardless of marital status, is 2.1 children, while per marriage - 2.6 children.

At the same time, some part of marriages always remains childless throughout life, and some is limited to the birth of only one child. To compensate for having one child, which has already become widespread among Russian families, especially in large cities, a significant proportion of marriages with three or more children is required. According to the calculations of specialists published in 1987, the distribution of families in society by the number of children born, corresponding to the critical value of the birth rate of 2.6 children per marriage, is as follows: 4% of families are childless, 10% have given birth to only one child, 35% - two children, three children - also 35%, 14% - four and 2% - five or more. From this it follows that just to maintain the simple reproduction of the population, it is necessary that families with three or more children make up more than half of the total number of families. If society recognizes the desirability of Russia's population growth over the foreseeable future, then the proportion of families with three or more children should naturally be higher. Therefore, the target reference point for our family and demographic policy should be a family with 3-4 children. Meanwhile, according to statistics, in particular according to the data of the 5% All-Russian Population Census of 1994, only 12.5% ​​of the young women aged 18 to 30 who were surveyed named three or more children as their desired number.

Studies of fertility factors in our country and in many other countries throughout the 20th century. showed that the number of children does not depend on random circumstances, but is largely the result of people making conscious decisions, implementing their life plans, under the influence of social norms and economic conditions, which, however, do not act automatically, but are refracted through human will, choice, through psychology, culture of people. Research shows that reproductive desires and plans (or in other words, reproductive attitudes) are formed at an early age and are very stable throughout a person's life. The main indicators of people's reproductive attitudes are two: the average desired and average expected (planned) number of children.

The All-Russian micro-census of the population of 1994 showed that, on average, married women would like to have (under the most favorable conditions) 2.03 children, but in reality they are going to give birth to 1.90. These figures alone characterize the acuteness of the demographic situation in Russia. The negligible difference between the average desired and planned number of children in a marriage, only 0.13 children, indicates that even in today's really difficult life circumstances, most Russian families have as many children as they want. Consequently, the problem of mass Russian small families is not at all in the realities of today's our life, as some of our politicians believe, but in the reduction of the very need of most families to have children.

The main causes of mass small families lie in the historical changes in the role of the family in society and the functions of children in the family. In past agrarian societies, the family was a production unit, the relations between family members were largely determined by production factors. Children were important for parents as workers, helpers in the household, his heirs, warriors-defenders of the household. A large number of children contributed to the well-being of the family, the growth of the authority of parents in the community. The family also played an important mediating role between its members and society.

In 2002, the birth rate in Russia ensured the reproduction of the population by only 62%, but at the same time, Russia was no exception to the general rule. The birth rate was not sufficient for a simple replacement of the population in any of the industrialized countries, with the exception of the United States, in 15 European countries the net reproduction rate of the population was even lower than in Russia (Fig. 1).

Picture 1. Net reproduction rate of the 40 industrialized countries in 2002

birth rate demographic social program

The extremely low birth rate in Russia is associated with the massive spread of one-child families and, accordingly, with a very high proportion of firstborns in the total number of births.

In 2003, second births in Russia accounted for 31% of all births. Their share was lower than in Russia only in Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Romania and France.

At the opposite pole were such countries as Germany, Greece, the Czech Republic and Switzerland - over 37%.

Figure 2. Share of second births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

The situation with third births in Russia is the same as with second births: the lowest rate in the world in the 1970s and one of the lowest at the beginning of the 21st century. In 2003, the proportion of third births in Russia was less than 8%, with lower rates only in Ukraine, Belarus, and Bulgaria. At the same time in Ireland - 17.2%, in the USA - 16.8%. (Fig. 3).

The share of the fourth and subsequent children in Russia accounts for less than 4% of those born, this proportion is lower only in Belarus, Spain and Slovenia. There are countries where fourth and subsequent births account for 10-11% of all births (USA, Ireland, Finland, Slovakia). But in general, births of such high orders do not play a big role in shaping the overall birth rate in developed countries.

Figure 3. Share of third births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

If we combine third and subsequent births into one group, it turns out that their contribution may not be so small, exceeding one fifth and even a quarter of all births (Fig. 4). But in Russia, the contribution of this combined group is small, it is 11%, that is, approximately as much as fourth and subsequent births in the USA

The increase in the number of unregistered marriages and, consequently, out-of-wedlock births is a trend that is associated with the so-called "second demographic transition". In part, it reflects the absence of actual marriages, in part, only the refusal to register them. It cannot be argued that this trend, as well as its demographic and social consequences, are well studied and fully understood. But the fact that it cannot be considered a feature of Russia or any individual countries in general is beyond doubt; it has a universal character.

Figure 4 Share of third and subsequent births in the total number of births in 28 industrialized countries in 2002, %

On the contrary, such a feature of the Russian birth rate as the excessive use of induced abortion to regulate it sharply distinguishes Russia from most developed countries. Abortion, as a last resort for women to avoid unwanted births, is practiced in almost all of these countries. The prevalence of this measure, which is universally considered undesirable for moral, religious and medical reasons, is not the same in different countries. But even taking into account this dissimilarity, Russia looks like a black sheep against the general background.

The low Russian birth rate does not explain anything in this sense. In most industrialized countries, the “contraceptive revolution” took place, which pushed abortion to the margins of birth control methods, and now there is no link between the birth rate and the prevalence of abortions (Fig. 5).

Figure 5 No relationship between birth rate and abortion rate. Total fertility rate (per 100 women) and abortions per 100 births in 24 countries, 2001

Although the number of abortions has recently been decreasing in our country, Russia has been and remains a country with an unacceptably high intensity of abortions. In 2003, there were 120 abortions for every 100 births. This is an all-time low level for Russia (in the 1960s - 1970s, the number of abortions here exceeded 200, including in 1964-1970 it was over 250 per 100 births), but, with the same as in Russia, birth rate, in Italy there are 24 abortions per hundred births, in Germany and Spain - 18.

In general, having for many decades one of the lowest birth rates in the world, Russia thus demonstrates the widest spread of the practice of intra-family regulation of childbearing. And all this time, the state, its healthcare system tried not to notice this and not meet the new needs of people. In essence, they blocked the “contraceptive revolution” through which the vast majority of developed countries went through, dooming millions of Russian women every year to the morally flawed path of artificial abortion, harmful to mental and physical health. The Russian pension system, its contemporary condition and perspectives development// ...