The decisive aspect of the entire demographic problem is the unequal population growth in different regions. But it is additionally complicated by the fact that demographic trends are not the same for different peoples.

There are some fluctuations in projected estimates of the total population of the Earth by 2025 and 2050. But even the estimated figures make one think seriously, especially if they are considered in a historical perspective.

In 1825, Thomas Malthus made final revisions to the manuscript of his book "An Essay on the Law of Population", which, having become a bestseller, first drew the attention of scientists and politicians to the demographic problem, while giving rise to a whole scientific school, there were approximately 1 billion inhabitants on the planet. Before this numerical mark, the population of the Earth went for almost 40 thousand years. However, within the next century, the world population doubled and reached 2 billion, and in another 50 years (from 1925 to 1976) it doubled again and reached the mark of 4 billion people. By 1990, the world's population had risen to 5.3 billion. And the total world population continues to grow, reaching 6 billion in 2000.

In the last third of the 20th century, the rate of annual population growth declined markedly, from a peak of 2.2% in 1963 to less than 1.4% in turn of the century. This happened because in many countries the birth rate has declined. Behind this circumstance is a decrease fertility rate- the number of children born during the life of one mother. In comparison with the 60s of the twentieth century and the beginning of the next, India has reduced this figure from 6 to 3.8 children per family, Indonesia and Brazil - from 6.4 to 2.9. In China, this trend looks even more impressive - from 6.2 to 2 children. for a family. Globally, between 1950 and 1996, the number of children per family fell from an average of 5 to less than 3.

Such changes are the result of growing prosperity in economically mature countries, reducing poverty and improving living standards in many countries. developing countries ah, embarked on the path of reform and industrialization. Among the latter are China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, where almost 45% of the world's population lives. At the same time, the transition of these and some other countries to a policy of birth control played a role.

However, the population of our planet will continue to grow. According to UN forecasts, by 2025 it can reach 9.4 billion people, in accordance with the most pessimistic scenario of the development of events, it will actually reach 8.5 billion, but it will not be less than the figure of 7.6 billion people.

According to the calculations of specialists and experts from World Bank the population of the Earth will be approximately 10-11 billion, but not more than 14.5 billion people by 2045, after which it will stabilize within these limits and will not grow further. In other words, if the forecasts and calculations of experts and specialists turn out to be correct, around this time there will be a global change in the birth rate or a great demographic shift.

In all pre-industrial types, social economic development the economic function of the family took the form: the more children, the more workers, the higher the level of family well-being. Modernization processes, the transition to industrial, and even more so to post-industrial types of socio-economic development, have seriously changed all the social functions of the family. In terms of their economic component, the number of employees affects its well-being to a much lesser extent than education, qualifications and health. If spouses in a paired family have two children, then there is no extended reproduction. The parents only restored themselves, which means there is no population growth. In order to ensure the expanded reproduction of the population, each family should have 2.65 children, which in real life means 5 children per two families. Global Fertility Change or Great Demographic Shift which takes place in the middle XXI century, will mean the stabilization of the birth rate at the level of one, less often two children in the family. Thus, the population of our planet will stabilize at the level of those numerical values that were named above. The whole global nature of the demographic problem lies in the fact that for another 40-50 years humanity will live in conditions of growth in its population, which means an increase in pressure on the environment.

The essence of the modern demographic problem lies in the growth of the world's population in overwhelming volumes due to developing countries: 95% of all growth until 2025 will occur in these regions of the world. In 1990 - 1995, the annual average increase in the world's population was 1.7%, and since 1996 even less - 1.6%. If for Europe the component of this average was 0.22%, and at the beginning XXI century - 0.2%, then for Africa today it is 3%. In 1950 Africa's population was half that of Europe. In 1985, the populations of Africa and Europe equaled, reaching 480 million on each continent. In 2025, according to the forecast, Africa will live three times more people than in Europe: 1 billion 580 million against 512 million.

The birth rate in agrarian societies is usually very high, but so is the death rate, especially for children (out of 1,000 newborns, 200 to 400 die in the first year of life). AT pre-industrial societies this is why early marriages are widely practiced, and spouses strive to have many children: even if some children die in infancy, each survivor will still increase the family's workforce. From this it is easy to imagine what happens to the population of an agrarian society when, due to advances in public health, mortality decreases, as happened in Europe in XIX century.

Modern population explosion is predominantly the result of the development of medicine and health care in industrial and post industrial countries ah: the use of immunizations and antibiotics. Looking back at the experience of Europe XIX century, it can be argued that population explosion could well have been predicted. Yesterday's, quite natural desire to reduce infant mortality in developing countries, the provision of extensive humanitarian assistance for this today has led to an unintended result - population growth.

Today, the world's poorest continent has a population of 650 million, but in 2025 it will reach 1,580 million. In China, despite the strict government programs birth control, by 2025 it will amount to 1.5 billion people. The population of India is growing even faster, which already today exceeds the one billion mark, and by 2025 will surpass the level of China, and then in the shortest possible time it will reach two billion.

But apart from the recognized "demographic giants" of an unprecedentedly high population in the third decade XXI century reached other countries: Pakistan - 267 million, Brazil - 245 million, Mexico - 150 million, Iran - 125 million people.

However, it is also an indisputable fact that while the population explosion and depletion of resources are the biggest problem in developing regions, many developed countries are facing the opposite trend - sluggish or even negative population growth. In these countries, which have achieved a high standard of living and quality medical care, the mortality rate is very low. In order for the population to even be kept at the current level, the fertility rate should be 2.1. UN data show that, starting from the 60s of the twentieth century, there has been a sharp decrease in the numerical value of this indicator: in Italy, for example, from 2.5 in the 60s. to 1.5 at the turn of the century, and in Spain from 2.2 to 1.7, respectively.

Urban, urbanized life in developed countries, namely, the vast majority of their population lives in them, attracts the young, most energetic and ambitious, whose plans do not include a large number of children. Besides, social status women in these countries have changed radically and are opening up new opportunities that have little or no connection with traditional family values. Secondly, women in developed countries have gained wide access to higher education, which forms their subsequent desire for a professional career. And finally, even married couples delay childbearing for the sake of education and career growth, which also leads to a decrease in the number of children. It is these reasons that are superimposed on the impact of urbanization on the reproduction of the population in developed countries.

Striking and different influence age structure populationin developed and developing countries. The share of children under the age of 15 in most developing countries reached 40-50% by the turn of the century in most developing countries. As a result, this region of the world has the largest concentration of the young working-age labor force. Ensuring its employment is one of the most acute problems of the coming decades. At the same time, the growth of life expectancy and the share of the elderly in the structure of the population in developed countries on the pension, health and care systems. In other words, if in developed countries the authorities should take care, first of all, of the constantly growing millions of people over 65 years old, then the governments of the "third world" countries bear the heavy burden of caring for the younger generation, who is not even 15 years old.

If in the poorest African countries there are only 2-3% of people over 65 years old, then in developed and prosperous countries their share is much higher: in Norway - 16.4%, and in Sweden 18.3%. The process of population aging in economically advanced and wealthy countries is steadily growing, for which there are reasons. First, there is a steady decline in the total fertility rate. Secondly, the results of successes in the medical care of people in post-industrial countries are affecting. The societies of these states by 2010 on average by 15.3%, and in 2040 by 22% will consist of people over 65 years of age.

The policy of preventing population decline by attracting immigrants, for all its effectiveness in the United States, also carries quite certain threats. This, in particular, is evidenced by the experience of Europe. The main countries of this continent, primarily Germany and France, in the period from the 50s to the 70s actively attracted immigrants due to the extremely low wages, which won the price war with America. Approximately since 1970 economic factor plays an ever smaller role. Due to the higher birth rate, the proportion of the "non-white" European population is growing rapidly. According to forecasts, by 2050, from 40 to 60% of the population of Europe will be people of non-autochthonous European origin. In general, in the world by this time there will be not only a relative, but also an absolute decrease in the number of peoples of the "first world", and the "white" population of the Earth will be approximately 1/10 of humanity.

Scientists in the West and the United States are sounding the alarm about this situation, seeing in it the threshold of a catastrophe. Western nations since 60-1990s, ceased to reproduce, their number is steadily decreasing. At the same time, in Asia (especially in Islamic countries, as well as in China and India), Latin America and Africa, the population is growing rapidly.

The potential danger of the current demographic situation lies not simply and not so much in the fact that in the next two decades the world's population will increase by almost 1.5 times, but in the fact that there will be a new billion hungry, a billion people who do not find employment in cities, one and a half billion disadvantaged people living below the "poverty line". Such a situation would be fraught with deep economic, social and political upheavals both within individual countries as well as in the international arena.

The exceptional complexity of solving population problems in modern world is that due to the inertia of demographic processes, the longer the solution of these problems is postponed, the larger they become.

Sections: Report

The gradual implementation and completion of the demographic transition in Russia (situations when there is a decrease in fertility and mortality and simple reproduction begins) softens regional differences in the reproduction of the population. They were maximum in the 1960s and 1970s, when some territories had already switched to a one-two-child family model (Central Russia, the North-West), while others, as a rule, were less urbanized, traditionally agrarian, still existed with four children. five-child families (republics of the North Caucasus, southern Siberia).

The highest birth rates are typical for Altai and Tyva, a number of North Caucasian republics (Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Chechnya), autonomous districts of Siberia (Ust-Ordynsky and Aginsky Buryat, Taimyr, Evenk) and Far East(Chukotsky, Koryaksky).

Only in 9 Russian regions with a total population of 1,520 thousand people (1.06% of the country's population) does the total fertility rate (TFR) exceed two children per woman, but nowhere does it reach three. Of the North Caucasian republics, such indicators are recorded by the statistical authorities only in Chechnya (2.965). Even in regions with once high birth rates - Dagestan and Kalmykia - a TFR of over 2,000 is now seen only in countryside. Urban residents of these republics demonstrate almost the average Russian birth rate.

In the Russian Federation, the Rostov region stands out not only for its natural resource and economic, but also for its multinational demographic potential. In terms of population, the region ranks sixth among 83 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Modern demographic situation in Rostov region was formed under the influence of political, socio-economic processes in the Russian Federation, as well as the demographic processes that took place in previous decades. The economic and social policy pursued in the region has largely contributed to curbing the development of the demographic crisis.

Thus, an increased, albeit low, birth rate remained only in the non-Europeanized regions of the country with a relatively high proportion of the rural population. The territorial localization of regions with the minimum and maximum birth rates has not changed compared to the middle of the last century, only the amplitude of fluctuations between them has significantly decreased. This was mainly due to a decrease in the birth rate in regions that previously had a high level of it.

In 2004, life expectancy in Russia was 65.3 years for both sexes, including: 58.9 years for men and 72.3 years for women. At the same time, in the Koryak Autonomous Okrug, it is only 53.1 years - such a life expectancy in Russia was in the distant pre-war years. In another 6 Russian regions - mostly autonomous districts and republics of the eastern part of the country - life expectancy does not reach the 60-year bar.

The second zone of trouble is localized in the north-west of the European part of the country - Tver, Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov, Kaliningrad regions, Karelia - they are a dense conglomerate of regions with life expectancy within 60-62 years (on average for both sexes).

The highest life expectancy (68-76 years) is shown by the republics of the North Caucasus, Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Belgorod region, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. The relative well-being of the mortality situation in the Caucasus is apparently related both to the ethno-cultural characteristics of the region and to the quality of population statistics.

The data on the life expectancy of Russian women and men show that there is a huge difference in the mortality pattern, which is not found almost anywhere else in the developed world. She is 13.4 years old. However, almost everywhere in the North-West of the country and in a number of eastern regions with low life expectancy - Irkutsk region, Koryak Autonomous Okrug, Buryatia, Altai - this difference reaches 15 years or more. The existence of such differences in life expectancy between men and women was made possible by the extremely low rates for men. In other words, we are talking about male supermortality in working age.

Level and territorial differentiation natural increase as the resulting indicator between fertility and mortality are determined by the time of the demographic transition in the regions. In the 1990s, a negative balance of births and deaths became a reality in the vast majority of regions. The natural population decline in 2004 was noted in 72 regions, and in the most populated areas - the North-West and the Center, it reaches maximum values. The natural increase was preserved only in the republics of the North Caucasus (but not everywhere there either - the natural decrease began in North Ossetia; a positive, but very low natural increase is noted in Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia), some regions of Siberia and the Far East. Among them are the Yamalo-Nenets, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs, Tyumen region, where natural growth is maintained due to a younger age structure of the population and, accordingly, reduced mortality. In other regions - Tyva, Altai, Evenk, Taimyr, Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrugs - natural growth is the result of an incomplete demographic transition and a higher birth rate. The total population of the growing regions in Russia is 10,425 thousand people (7.3% of the country's population).

Features of the development of the migration situation in Russian Federation in the last decade are due to political and socio-economic changes that have taken place throughout the post-Soviet space after the collapse of the USSR. The main components of the new migration situation in Russia are:

1. The instability of a number of newly independent states, the lack of security guarantees in them, internal and interstate conflicts, everyday nationalism and intolerance, increasing interethnic disunity, stimulating a massive influx of forced migrants to Russia. Despite the reduction in recent years in the scale of forced migration to Russia, the solution of the problems caused by it is doomed to be drawn out for many years.

2. The ongoing immigration to Russia of Russians, representatives of other indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation, which has amounted to several million people in recent years.

3. Emigration to the countries of the old abroad for permanent residence, which is largely ethnic in nature;

4. Immigration to Russia of immigrants from third world countries with an unstable socio-political situation, which has arisen in recent years in connection with the "transparency" of Russian borders with the CIS countries, the lack of legislation regulating legal status foreign citizens in Russia, and which is predominantly illegal. A significant number of immigrants consider Russia as a springboard for moving to the West, but some of them are oriented towards long-term residence in the country.

5. Russia's integration into the international labor market is accompanied by the development of external labor migration processes, an integral part of which is the attraction of foreign labor to Russia and the sending of Russian citizens to work abroad. The most acute problem of external labor migration is the problem of illegal import of labor, primarily from the CIS member states. In this connection, in the short term, the tasks of preventing and suppressing illegal labor migration, as well as monitoring the observance of the rights of migrant workers remain among the most relevant.

6. Mass migrations for socio-economic reasons from the states of Transcaucasia, Ukraine and other countries post-Soviet space due to the sharp deterioration in their socio-economic situation, the formation of "new diasporas" from representatives of the titular nationalities of these states.

7. The change in the general direction of migration flows that has taken place in recent years, expressed in the departure of the population from the regions of the North and East of the country, which for many decades have been attracting migrants from other parts of Russia and former USSR. The population is declining almost everywhere in the regions richest in raw materials. Of particular concern is the fact that among those leaving the bulk are socially active people of working age, which in general does not correspond to the task of optimizing the composition of the population of the northern regions: its demographic structure is deteriorating, and the unique labor potential is being destroyed.

8. Reducing the population of strategically important border areas in the east of the country, which increases the demographic imbalance with the adjacent states of East Asia, primarily with China. Mass resettlement of Chinese in the border areas in the absence of adequate public policy in the future, it can lead to a weakening, and even to the loss of state power in the eastern regions.

9. The concentration of migrants in the central regions of the European part of the country, the Volga region, the North Caucasus, the southern regions of the Urals and Western Siberia, i.e. in fairly densely populated old-inhabited regions with favorable natural and climatic conditions or a relatively high level of socio-economic development.

10. The emergence and persistence of centers of forced migration in Russia (the Chechen Republic, the region of the Ossetian-Ingush conflict), the flows of displaced persons associated with them and the instability of the situation in other regions - Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria. The exodus of the Russian population from the North Caucasian republics naturally leads to ethnic, economic and, in the future, their national-territorial isolation, creates a threat to the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and aggravates the socio-political situation in southern Russia.

11. The problem of the return of previously repressed peoples to the places of their former residence, aggravated as a result of the legislatively declared restoration of historical justice without assessing the political and economic consequences and the lack of development of mechanisms for resolving emerging territorial disputes.

12. Problems of population migration associated with unfavorable environmental conditions and natural disasters(ecological migration). The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, less large-scale man-made disasters, natural disasters - an earthquake on the Kuril Islands in 1994, on Sakhalin in 1995. caused the emergency migration of many thousands of people.

In a relationship labor migration There are two opposite points of view on attracting immigrants:

· Attracting unskilled migrants does not increase GDP per capita. Economic growth in the long run can only occur through increased labor productivity - that is, through the growth of skills, higher wages and purchasing power population. But the arrival of low-skilled migrants increases the proportion of the population with low qualifications and low wages. It is noted that Russia is still characterized by a high level of hidden unemployment - work in organizations with a deliberately low level of wages, but providing employment and not placing great demands on the qualifications of employees

· Attracting migrants will increase the competitiveness of the Russian economy through better and cheaper labor force. To maintain the population at the same level, it is necessary to attract at least 700 thousand immigrants a year, and to maintain the working-age population (which is important for the economy) - at least a million a year. In order to maintain economic growth in the welfare of the population, Russia must receive at least 20 million immigrants by the middle of the century.

Solving the problems of migration is largely related to the issues of socio-economic development, stabilization of the political situation in Russia and the constituent entities of the Federation, political settlement of the armed ethno-political and regional conflicts that have taken place in the post-Soviet space.

The migration situation in Russia makes it possible to determine migration policy priorities , to concentrate the efforts of federal state authorities and state authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the:

1.Prevention, prevention and minimization negative consequences stimulated migration flows.

2. Adaptation and integration of migrants in a new place of residence.

3. Suppression of illegal migration.

4. Ensuring the regulation of external labor migration, social protection migrant workers.

5.Optimization of population placement and labor resources through socio-economic migrations.

6.Voluntary return of migrants (internally displaced persons, refugees and asylum seekers).

71. Forecast of the socio-economic development of the country: goals, objectives; compound; structure. Development of scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation and the main parameters of the forecast for the next fiscal year and planning period. Programs of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, regions and the concept of socio-economic development.

Analysis and forecasting of socio-economic development is the starting point of work on the management of regional development. Based on a reasonable forecast, the goals of the socio-economic development of the region are determined, program activities and priorities in the development of the regional economic complex are specified.

Forecasting the socio-economic development of the region- foreseeing the future state of the economy and the social sphere, an integral part of state regulation of the economy, designed to determine the direction of development of the regional complex and its structural components. The results of predictive calculations are used government bodies to substantiate the goals and objectives of socio-economic development, the development and justification of social economic policy government, ways to rationalize the use of limited productive resources.

The forecast for the socio-economic development of the region includes a set of particular forecasts, reflecting the future separately

aspects of social life, and comprehensive economic forecast, reflecting in a generalized form the development of the economy and social sphere of the region.

In private forecasts evaluated:

the demographic situation in the region;

the state of the natural environment, including areas such as explored reserves of natural resources, land, water and forest resources;

· the future state of scientific and technological achievements and the possibility of their introduction into production;

main factors of production (capital, labor, investment);

the magnitude and dynamics of the population's demand for goods and services

effective demand of the population for certain goods and services;

· the pace of development of individual sectors of the national economy, territories and other socially significant areas of activity.

In the Comprehensive Economic Forecast reflects the future development of the region's economy as an integral entity. The development of a comprehensive forecast is based on scientific grounds that adequately explain the functioning and development of the regional economic complex.

By time horizon Comprehensive forecasts for the economic development of regions can be divided into three types: long-term, medium-term and short-term.

Long term forecast developed once every five years for a ten-year period. It serves as the basis for developing the concept of the country's socio-economic development on long term. In order to ensure the continuity of the ongoing economic policy, long-term forecast data are used in the development of medium-term forecasts, the concept and programs of the country's socio-economic development.

Medium term forecast socio-economic development of the country is developed for a period of three to five years with annual data adjustments. It serves as the basis for developing the concept of economic development in the medium term. For the purpose of general familiarization, the data of long- and medium-term forecast calculations, as well as the concept of socio-economic development, are published in the open press.

Short term forecast socio-economic development is developed annually and serves as the basis for drafting the project state budget.

The above documents are part of the package submitted by the Government of Russia to the Federal Assembly. This package includes:

· data on the socio-economic development of the country over the past period of the current year;

· Forecast of socio-economic development for the coming year;

· the project of consolidated financial balance on the territory of Russia;

· a list of the main socio-economic problems (tasks) of development, the solution of which will be directed by the policy of the Government of the Russian Federation;

· a list of federal targeted programs scheduled for financing in the coming year at the expense of the federal budget;

· the list and volume of supplies of products for state needs according to the enlarged nomenclature;

· designing the development of the public sector of the economy.

Along with this, the Government of Russia submits draft laws that it considers necessary to adopt for the successful implementation of the tasks outlined.

as workers integrated forecast tools are used: extrapolation past trends in the development of the economy and social sphere for the future, econometric calculations based on the database of the national accounting system, system of macrostructural models, including a modified intersectoral balance model, a model of the dynamics of capital and investment in real sector economy. This model does not yet have a completed form and is used only for experimental predictive calculations.

There are two fundamentally different approaches to forecasting economic objects: genetic and teleological.

genetic approach is based on the analysis of the prehistory of the development of the object, fixes its fundamental factors that determine the features of development. On this basis, conclusions are drawn regarding the state of the predicted object in the future.

schema. This approach is more inherent in "outside observers" of ongoing processes. The targets of socio-economic development in this approach do not play a special role. The most prominent representative of this approach in our country was N.D. Kondratiev with his theory of "long waves".

Teleological approach(from Greek. telos- goal) is more inherent in the active participants in the processes taking place in the economy. It is based on the target settings for the development of a given object and the degree of its approximation to the tasks set. The most prominent representative and defender of this approach in economic forecasting was S.G. Strumilin.

Methodological and methodological problems of forecasting socio-economic development are the prerogative of those organizations that the government entrusts with the development of forecasts. In particular, the consolidated economic forecast is developed by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation. It is it that is responsible for the methodology and methodology for developing a forecast.

Development of an integrated economic forecast region has two goals. First, it must provide the government of the region with information for decision-making in the field of economic and social policy. Secondly, its indicators serve as the basis for the development of indicators for the draft state budget of the region.

Problems information support forecasting. State forecasting is based on information provided by the relevant executive authorities of the Russian Federation and its subjects. The main body for providing information is State Committee on statistics, which, through a network of its regional bodies, collects primary information, summarizes it and officially publishes it. Other ministries and departments are responsible for providing information on their areas of competence (in the monetary sphere - central bank, for budget execution - the Ministry of Finance, for customs statistics - the State Customs Committee, etc.).

System of National Accounts is a summary and generalizing tool for economic calculations. The regional system of national accounts provides a holistic view of economic processes, primarily in the form of flows financial resources, which basically reveals the essence of

outgoing processes in the economy market type. It allows you to determine the general indicators of the development of industries, sectors and institutional units at various stages of the reproduction process and mutually link these indicators with each other.

Each stage of reproduction corresponds to a special account or group of them. This allows you to trace the movement of the mass of goods and services produced, as well as the added value through the cycle of reproduction, from production to use.

The complex of summary tables of the system of national accounts can be used both in macroeconomic calculations and in the process of summarizing individual sections of the forecast into a single whole.

Theoretical basis for forecasting regional development. The forecast of the socio-economic development of the region is based on certain scientific theories that explain the features of the functioning and development of the regional economic complex. These theoretical postulates are basically the same as for the national economy.

Theory of stages of economic growth W. Rostow. According to this theory, the exit from the state of underdevelopment can be described by a series of stages (steps) through which any country must pass.

Peculiarities

demographic situation in the Russian Federation

The demographic situation in Russia is characterized by complex and ambiguous processes in the development of the population. In terms of the number of inhabitants, the Russian Federation ranks seventh in the world after China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan. By the beginning of the 21st century, Russia approached in a state of a steady process of depopulation, having one of the highest rates of natural population decline.

The main features of the current demographic situation in modern Russia are: a significant reduction in the population; low birth rate, mass distribution of a one-child family, which does not ensure the reproduction of the population; the continuing aging of the population, the change in the ratio between workers and pensioners, exacerbating the problems of pension provision; huge losses of the population from the supermortality of men, especially from accidents, poisoning and injuries; family crisis, high divorce rate; the dependence of the rate of population decline on the level of compensation for the natural loss of external migration; significant volumes of forced migration and illegal migration; reducing the volume of internal migration, reducing the mobility of the population.

The steady absolute decline in population that began in 1992 became threatening by the end of the decade. As a result of natural decline, the population of Russia for the period from 1994 to 2002 decreased by 7.7 million people. However, as a result of a positive migration increase, the population decline turned out to be much smaller and the population actually decreased by 4.9 million people, amounting to 143.1 million people at the beginning of 2003.

The population of Russia will continue to decline, on average by about 0.6-0.8 million people annually, and the size of the decline will be determined both by the difference between mortality and birth rate, and by the size of the migration gain. By 2010, the number of Russians will be reduced to about 138-139 million people. Over the years, according to UN forecasts, Bangladesh and Nigeria will bypass Russia in terms of population. Russia will move from 7th to 9th place in the world in terms of population.

The natural decline in the population main reason depopulation in Russia has a stable and long-term character. In 1999-2002, the annual excess of deaths over births in the country as a whole was consistently about 1 million people (1.7-1.8 times). At the same time, the compensatory role of positive interstate migration growth in making up for losses in Russia's population has significantly decreased in recent years. If in 1994 the natural population decline was replaced by 93% by registered external migration, then in 1998 it was already by 41%, and in 2001-2002 - only by 8%.

Depopulation has affected almost all territories of the Russian Federation and almost all ethnic groups to varying degrees. The problem of low birth rates has become particularly acute. Decline in the birth rate is characteristic of many developed countries, but the Russian Federation is characterized by a uniquely low birth rate. Since the end of the 60s, the birth rate in Russia has fallen below the level necessary for the simple reproduction of the population. Although extensive factors led to an increase in the absolute number of births in 2000-2002, they practically did not change the birth rate.

In 2002 there were 1397.0 thousand children, which is 182.3 thousand more than in 1999. Encouraging, at first glance, the increase is due mainly to a temporary increase in the number of women in the most childbearing ages of 20-29 years.

At the same time, the total fertility rate does not exceed one hundred and thirty-one born per 100 women of reproductive age (15-49 years old). This is significantly below the level required for the numerical replacement of generations of parents by their children, or simple reproduction of the population.

The nature of the birth rate in the Russian Federation is determined by the massive spread of small families (1-2 children), as well as the late birth of the first child. The fall in the birth rate in Russia occurred in an unprecedentedly short demographic period of time.

The need for strict intra-family regulation of childbearing, the late birth of the first child by young spouses and the increase in the average age of the mother at the birth of children (2001-26.0 years, 1994 -24.7) have become an adequate response of the population to the impact of the economic situation. Against this background, there has been a noticeable rejuvenation of the age of onset of sexual life, the spread of premarital cohabitation without the intention to have children and unregistered marriages, as well as a noticeable increase in extramarital births. In 1995-2002 alone, the proportion of children born out of a registered marriage among all those born increased 1.5 times and reached almost 30%.

The severity of depopulation in the Russian Federation is formed not only due to the low birth rate, but primarily due to the high mortality of the population, which is the most painful problem of the modern demographic development of Russia.

Since 1999, the overall mortality rate of the country's population began to grow again and amounted to 16.3 deaths per 1000 population in 2002 against 15.7 in 1994 and is currently the highest in Europe. Over the past 4 years, this figure has increased by 20%. The impact on mortality of such factors as the spread of alcoholism, smoking, and traffic accidents has increased. The number of deaths is increasing not only from chronic, but also from socially determined diseases.

The situation with mortality in the country is determined by the dynamics of those who died at working age. In 2002, the proportion of those who died of working age in the total number of those who died was 29%.

The problem of excessive mortality at working age is, first of all, the problem of male mortality, the level of which is 4 times higher than that of women. While in developed countries the mortality of men of working age is 2-4 times lower than in Russia.

The emerging trends in the field of natural and migratory movement of the population predetermine a further reduction in the country's population. According to the forecast of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, by 2016 the population of the country will decrease by 9.7 million people (or 6.7%) compared with the beginning of 2002 and will amount to 134.3 million people. A positive migration increase does not compensate for the natural decline in the population.

The current parameters of the population itself (age structure) and its reproduction are such that the population of Russia in the 21st century will continue to decline in 5-6 decades, even though worst case, can be reduced by about half.

The main strategic objectives of demographic policy:

Improving the health status of the population, increasing life expectancy, reducing preventable mortality of the population, especially men of working age;

Stimulation of the birth rate and strengthening of the family on the basis of improving the material well-being, quality and standard of living of families, social protection of families and material incentives for the birth of children;

Activation information-clarify

Introduction

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the current demographic situation

2. Increasing the birth rate: how to increase the effect of government measures

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The relevance of research. Low fertility in our country is not a new problem. And its causes are only to a small extent connected with the difficulties of the socio-economic development of our country in recent years. The birth rate in Russia has been declining for more than 100 years. In the first half of the XX century. in parallel with the birth rate, the death rate also decreased, so the reduction in the number of children in Russian families for a long time remained imperceptible. But in the second half of the century, the decline in mortality slowed down and the problem of having few children began to manifest itself more and more clearly.

The relationship between the number of children in a family and the standard of living is very complex. It may seem like a paradox, but the better people live, the fewer children they want to have on average. This correlation has been manifested for a long time and universally in all countries of the world, regardless of the social system, geographical location, race, nationality, and so on. It was noted by the English economist Adam Smith and Karl Marx.

In general, the decline in the birth rate in Russia is in line with the general decline in the birth rate in all industrialized and urbanized countries, and, as a rule, Russia was ahead of most of them in this decline and is now among the industrialized countries with the lowest number of children in the family.

In this way, goal of our study is the birth rate in Russia.

Based on the goal, determined tasks:

To characterize the birth rate as a determining factor of the modern demographic situation;

Identify effective government measures to increase the birth rate.

The work used various scientific and educational literature on fertility issues. Various publications in periodicals and on Internet sites are also of interest.

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the current demographic situation

The main determining factor in the current demographic situation is the birth rate, which has fallen in our country to the lowest level in the world. The total fertility rate (the number of children born on average to one woman of a conditional generation in her entire life) amounted to only 1,230 children in 1997, while only for simple reproduction, i.e. one in which the population does not grow, but also does not decrease, the required average number of births per woman in her entire life, regardless of marital status, is 2.1 children, while per marriage - 2.6 children.

At the same time, some part of marriages always remains childless throughout life, and some is limited to the birth of only one child. To compensate for having one child, which has already become widespread among Russian families, especially in large cities, a significant proportion of marriages with three or more children is required. According to the calculations of specialists published in 1987, the distribution of families in society by the number of children born, corresponding to the critical value of the birth rate of 2.6 children per marriage, is as follows: 4% of families are childless, 10% have given birth to only one child, 35% - two children, three children - also 35%, 14% - four and 2% - five or more. From this it follows that just to maintain the simple reproduction of the population, it is necessary that families with three or more children make up more than half of the total number of families. If society recognizes the desirability of Russia's population growth over the foreseeable future, then the proportion of families with three or more children should naturally be higher. Therefore, the target reference point for our family and demographic policy should be a family with 3-4 children. Meanwhile, according to statistics, in particular according to the 5 percent All-Russian census of the 1994 population, only 12.5% of surveyed young women aged 18 to 30 named three or more children as their desired number.

Studies of fertility factors in our country and in many other countries throughout the 20th century. showed that the number of children does not depend on random circumstances, but is largely the result of people making conscious decisions, implementing their life plans, under the influence of social norms and economic conditions, which, however, do not act automatically, but are refracted through human will, choice, through psychology, culture of people. Research shows that reproductive desires and plans (or in other words, reproductive attitudes) are formed at an early age and are very stable throughout a person's life. The main indicators of people's reproductive attitudes are two: the average desired and average expected (planned) number of children.

The All-Russian micro-census of the population of 1994 showed that, on average, married women would like to have (under the most favorable conditions) 2.03 children, but in reality they are going to give birth to 1.90. These figures alone characterize the acuteness of the demographic situation in Russia. The negligible difference between the average desired and planned number of children in a marriage, only 0.13 children, indicates that even in today's really difficult life circumstances, most Russian families have as many children as they want. Consequently, the problem of mass Russian small families is not at all in the realities of today's our life, as some of our politicians believe, but in the reduction of the very need of most families to have children.

The main causes of mass small families lie in the historical changes in the role of the family in society and the functions of children in the family. In past agrarian societies, the family was a production unit, the relations between family members were largely determined by production factors. Children were important for parents as workers, helpers in the household, his heirs, warriors-defenders of the household. A large number of children contributed to the well-being of the family, the growth of the authority of parents in the community. The family also played an important mediating role between its members and society.

In 2002, the birth rate in Russia ensured the reproduction of the population by only 62%, but at the same time Russia was no exception. general rule. The birth rate was not sufficient for a simple replacement of the population in any of the industrialized countries, with the exception of the United States, in 15 European countries the net reproduction rate of the population was even lower than in Russia (Fig. 1).

Picture 1. Net reproduction rate of the 40 industrialized countries in 2002

birth rate demographic social program

The extremely low birth rate in Russia is associated with the massive spread of one-child families and, accordingly, with a very high proportion of firstborns in the total number of births.

In 2003, second births in Russia accounted for 31% of all births. Their share was lower than in Russia only in Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Romania and France.

At the opposite pole were such countries as Germany, Greece, the Czech Republic and Switzerland - over 37%.

Figure 2. Share of second births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

The situation with third births in Russia is the same as with second births: the lowest rate in the world in the 1970s and one of the lowest at the beginning of the 21st century. In 2003, the proportion of third births in Russia was less than 8%, with lower rates only in Ukraine, Belarus, and Bulgaria. At the same time in Ireland - 17.2%, in the USA - 16.8%. (Fig. 3).

The share of the fourth and subsequent children in Russia accounts for less than 4% of those born, this proportion is lower only in Belarus, Spain and Slovenia. There are countries where fourth and subsequent births account for 10-11% of all births (USA, Ireland, Finland, Slovakia). But in general, births of such high orders do not play a big role in shaping the overall birth rate in developed countries.

Figure 3. Share of third births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

If we combine third and subsequent births into one group, it turns out that their contribution may not be so small, exceeding one fifth and even a quarter of all births (Fig. 4). But in Russia, the contribution of this combined group is small, it is 11%, that is, approximately as much as fourth and subsequent births in the USA

The increase in the number of unregistered marriages and, consequently, out-of-wedlock births is a trend that is associated with the so-called "second demographic transition". In part, it reflects the absence of actual marriages, in part, only the refusal to register them. It cannot be argued that this trend, as well as its demographic and social consequences well studied and fully understood. But the fact that it cannot be considered a feature of Russia or any individual countries in general is beyond doubt; it has a universal character.

Figure 4 Share of third and subsequent births in the total number of births in 28 industrialized countries in 2002, %

On the contrary, such a feature of the Russian birth rate as the excessive use of induced abortion to regulate it sharply distinguishes Russia from most developed countries. Abortion, as a last resort for women to avoid unwanted births, is practiced in almost all of these countries. The prevalence of this measure, which is widely considered undesirable on moral, religious and medical grounds, in different countries not the same. But even taking into account this dissimilarity, Russia looks like a black sheep against the general background.

The low Russian birth rate does not explain anything in this sense. In most industrialized countries, the “contraceptive revolution” took place, which pushed abortion to the margins of birth control methods, and now there is no link between the birth rate and the prevalence of abortions (Fig. 5).

Figure 5 No relationship between birth rate and abortion rate. Total fertility rate (per 100 women) and abortions per 100 births in 24 countries, 2001

Although the number of abortions has recently been decreasing in our country, Russia has been and remains a country with an unacceptably high intensity of abortions. In 2003, there were 120 abortions for every 100 births. This is an all-time low level for Russia (in the 1960s - 1970s, the number of abortions here exceeded 200, including in 1964-1970 it was over 250 per 100 births), but, with the same as in Russia, birth rate, in Italy there are 24 abortions per hundred births, in Germany and Spain - 18.

In general, having for many decades one of the lowest birth rates in the world, Russia thus demonstrates the widest spread of the practice of intra-family regulation of childbearing. And all this time, the state, its healthcare system tried not to notice this and not meet the new needs of people. In essence, they blocked the “contraceptive revolution” through which the vast majority of developed countries went through, dooming millions of Russian women every year to the morally flawed path of artificial abortion, harmful to mental and physical health. The Russian pension system, its contemporary condition and perspectives development// ...

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on the topic Analysis of the development of fertility in the Russian Federation

Introduction

Section 1. Stages of development of the birth rate in Russia

Section 3. Regional features of fertility in Russia

Section 4. Fertility and population reproduction in Russia

Conclusion

Introduction

Birth rate - the ratio of the number of births to the number of inhabitants in a given territory.

Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical conditionality of this process. It establishes and studies the patterns of population reproduction, the patterns of changes in its size, composition, territorial distribution and condition, as well as the causes of these changes. An unfavorable demographic situation has developed in the Russian Federation, which necessitates the development and implementation of priority measures aimed at mitigating this problem.

All the changes in the Russian birth rate that have occurred over the past hundred years often lead to a decrease in its level. Indeed, Russia has experienced grandiose changes - the fall in the final birth rate amounted to 4.5 - 6.3 times, depending on the method of assessment. The decline in the birth rate in itself is a clear indicator of radical and rapid changes in the family, society and state, which have taken place over the course of the life of only three or four demographic generations of Russians (the length of the demographic generation is about 30 years).

On the one hand, the decline in the birth rate was a historically inevitable response to the general and consistent modernization of society in all areas, on the other hand, the transition from high to low birth rates led to different rates of population change, to a fundamental transformation of the demographic balance between generations (the quantitative ratio between age groups children, parents and grandparents), which, in turn, initiates and accelerates the corresponding socio-economic and political changes. It is the decline in the birth rate to the current unprecedented low level that is the central point of the current demographic challenge to socio-economic systems in developed countries.

At present, this problem is more relevant than ever for Russian reality, because it is a well-known fact that it is not possible to raise a healthy, developed socio-economic society without touching on demographic issues. Almost all media in question about the demographic state Russian Federation and about the main directions of the state activity in this sphere. For example, currently for the birth of a second child, government payments parents, and the amount is quite high, in some regions of our country, you can even buy housing for this amount, we will study this side in more detail later, but one cannot but agree that it is unnecessary to have a huge stock of knowledge in order to understand that this is one of the methods of solving the demographic problem on the part of the state.

Chapter 1 Stages of development of the birth rate in Russia.

All the changes in the Russian birth rate that have occurred over the past hundred years often lead to a decrease in its level. Indeed, Russia experienced tremendous changes - the fall in the final birth rate was 4.5 - 6.3 times, depending on the method of assessment: from 7.5 live births per one conditional average woman in her entire life at the end of the 19th century to 1.2 children - at the end of the 20th century; from 7.2 children per woman born in the late 1860s to 1.6 children per woman in real cohorts of the late 1960s. radical and rapid changes in the family, society and state, which took place during the life of only three or four demographic generations of Russians (the length of the demographic generation is about 30 years).

The study of the historical type of socio-cultural regulators of demographic behavior (norms, values, prescriptions, beliefs), acting both at the level of society and at the family-individual level (decision-making system and methods of controlling fertility), provides an answer to the following fundamental questions: what is sustainability and what are the limits of acceptable variability of fertility parameters in a particular socio-cultural environment. The study of the transformation of socio-demographic relations between people in the process of transition from one historically stable type of fertility to another provides the key to understanding the need and direction of present and future changes in the fertility model.

The reasons state of the art fertility

The following causes of the demographic crisis are most often cited:

1 Economic reforms and related economic instability

2 Democratic reforms and related processes to change people's minds

3 Reproductive health of the population

4 Activities of specialized organizations aimed at limiting the size of the population (including the Russian Association of Family Planning) and their support by government agencies

5 Activities of commercial pharmaceutical companies to promote the use of contraceptives.

First demographic stage

The decline in the birth rate in Russia began at a higher level and later than in most developed countries. The delay from European countries is on average 30-40 years. The initial impetus for the decline in the birth rate was the great "emancipation" and agrarian reform in Russia, initiated by decree "from above" in 1861. The fall in the birth rate went at a record pace for Europe - about 70 years, Russia overcame the backlog, having completed the transition to a low birth rate (2 children per woman) at the same time as other developed countries - by the mid-1960s. The first generations with a post-transitional birth rate are women born in the second half of the 1920s and in the 1930s).

The decline in the birth rate of real generations in Russia was monotonous almost throughout the transition. Some violation of this monotony can be found only in the cohorts of 1890-1895. birth. On the contrary, birth rates for conditional generations (traditional total fertility rate) showed high volatility against the background of general trend to decrease. Fluctuations in indicators for conditional generations, caused by the specific features of certain calendar years: catastrophic changes in the socio-economic environment and / or state intervention in the demographic sphere, reflect, first of all, strong shifts in the birth calendar. Sharp declines and subsequent no less sharp compensatory rises in market indicators well characterize instantaneous changes in the rate of family formation, but mask the general trend in the evolution of fertility. In Russia during the 20th century, four cases of deviation of the total fertility rate from the trend can be counted: three under the influence of catastrophic circumstances and one as a result of the family policy of the state.

The transition to a low birth rate in Russia, in our opinion, was largely accelerated by a continuous chain of social cataclysms that accompanied the accelerated modernization of society. The point is not so much that the standard of living of the population fell during crises, but that during these periods a mass experience of individual birth control was acquired. The reproductive behavior of partners has constantly adapted to the changing reality. The need for frequent changes in the calendar of births and marriages brought to life specific instrumental methods and methods of birth control. Unfortunately, in Russia this resulted in a massive spread of abortion practice. The law of 1936, which prohibited artificial abortion at the request of a woman, was in many ways a naive attempt by a totalitarian state to reverse the downward trend in the birth rate, to "correct" the demographic situation after the crisis caused by "collectivization". We estimate its effect in raising market indicators (number of births, total fertility rate) in 1937 at no more than 8%. In subsequent years, the effect of the ban, of course, was even lower. In terms of the final birth rate of real generations, the role of this factor, apparently, is zero, reduced to shifts in the birth calendar for some women, caught by surprise by the new circumstance.

Second demographic stage

Under the second demographic transition, some experts understand a simple transition from the currently dominant model of a two-child family to a model of a family with one child (or even to mass childlessness). This interpretation of the latest trends not only simplifies the situation, but may also turn out to be simply erroneous in the long run.

In reality, today we have a poor idea of that ideal quantitative model family and fertility, which will become predominant in future generations. But what we already know for sure is that the formation of a family and the birth of offspring will occur to an ever lesser extent under the influence of changes in macroeconomic and socio-political parameters of the environment that do not depend on the individual. In his demographic behavior, a person will most likely be guided by non-materialistic values, "tuning" the individual calendar of demographic events to change specific and diverse life circumstances.

At the level of demographic indicators, the second demographic transition manifests itself in the form of an increase in the average age of marriage and motherhood, an increase in the intervals between births, an increase in the role of births outside of official marriage, an increase in the proportion of people who have never entered into a registered marriage and have not had a single child. The traditional fusion of three types of behavior: sexual matrimonial and reproductive is finally becoming a thing of the past.

The instrumental basis of the new stage of fertility control was the mass dissemination of a system of effective methods of family planning, which allows the individual to freely distribute reproductive events in time. Literally before our eyes, the contraceptive revolution, having gone through several stages, develops into a systematic process of introducing more and more new achievements in the field of family planning into the practice of family planning. high technology. Recall that family planning is not limited to contraceptive protection, it is associated with the regulation of individual fertility as such, including with the help of gene technologies.

The latest trends in the evolution of fertility, which we interpret as the beginning of the second demographic transition, in Russia can be identified by the following conclusion:

ü rapid decline in fertility in the youngest age groups;

l postponing the birth of the firstborn in real generations (Table 4);

l the rapid increase in the age at first marriage;

ü a strong reduction in the number of abortions against the backdrop of falling birth rates under the age of 25;

ь increase in the contribution of older age groups of mothers to the final birth rate

Third demographic stage.

The third stage of the demographic transition is characterized by the stabilization of mortality at a low level due to the achievements of socio-economic development (accessibility of medical care, social programs, employment growth, rising living standards, etc.) and a slowdown in the birth rate, but the natural increase in the population is still quite high. The fourth stage is characterized by stably low mortality rates and a birth rate stabilized at an average or low level, as a result of which a low or even negative rate of natural increase is formed, the population increases slowly or decreases.

Low level of economic development, high birth and death rates, short life expectancy (36-40 years). As certain social and economic transformations improve the quality of life, the level of medical care rises, and this contributes to a significant decrease in mortality rates, and life expectancy increases. With the development of industrialization processes (especially the involvement of women in social work) and urbanization (which affects living conditions), natural growth rates are declining.

Section 2. Dynamics of the birth rate in Russia

In 2001, the total fertility rate (total fertility rate) in Russia was 1.35 births per woman. This is a low figure, however, it is precisely such low rates that are now characteristic of many industrialized countries.

We have a widespread opinion that the sharp drop in the birth rate in Russia in the 1990s. - a consequence of the economic and social crisis of the transition period and that as soon as the crisis is over, the birth rate will begin to rise. However, world experience does not justify such expectations. Many quite prosperous European countries have just recently gone through the same ten-year period of a sharp decline in fertility (Fig. 1), and it has not been replaced by an increase anywhere. Russia, in a certain sense, repeats the path traveled by many others.

Fig. 1 Stage of a sharp decline in the birth rate in Russia and in some other countries

Therefore, when determining the "fork" of possible changes in the birth rate in Russia for the next 50 years, one has to take into account the possibility of maintaining its low level for a long time. Accordingly, the total fertility rate (TFR) equal to 1.4 births per woman, unchanged throughout the entire period, was taken as the lower limit of probable changes.

However, our current knowledge of the mechanisms that shape the dynamics of fertility is not so deep that we can completely exclude the possibility of its increase after some time. This possibility was taken into account when determining the upper limit of the "fork" - 2 births per woman by 2050 with a gradual increase in the indicator from 1.3 to 2.0 over 50 years (Table 3).

Table No. 1. - Total fertility rate in Russia in 1959-2000 and forecast scenarios up to 2050

	Scenarios with persistently low fertility	Increasing fertility scenarios

The adopted forecast "fork" may seem overly optimistic: it is more difficult to imagine an increase in the total fertility rate to 2.0 now than its fall below 1.3 (in fact, it is already below this level). But still, such a "fork" probably covers the main range of possible changes in the birth rate for the next half century.

It should be noted that since the beginning of the year there has been a steady increase in the proportion of second and subsequent children in Russian families.

The average age of women in labor is 26 years. At the same time, the first child is most often born at the age of 24, the second at 29, and the third and fourth children in the family are born by mothers aged 33 and older.

It is also worth noting that the surge in the birth rate occurred in the spring: 4,483 children were born in May, in the same month the largest number of second and subsequent children in the family pleased their parents with their birth - 1,668 children.

As part of the implementation of the activities of the priority national project "Health", in the medical institutions of the district, the introduction of the medical expert system "Prenatal Audit" has begun in order to improve the quality and timeliness of detection of congenital malformations of the fetus, hereditary and chromosomal pathology.

In 33 medical and preventive institutions of the Okrug, where dynamic monitoring of pregnant women is carried out, it is planned to install an automated workplace for an obstetrician-gynecologist connected via telecommunications with an automated workplace for an expert doctor of the medical genetic consultation of the District Cardiological Dispensary.

It is worth noting that this year 48 pupils of the district Orphanage were placed under guardianship and guardianship.

Reproductive behavior is a concept that denotes a system of actions and relationships that mediate the birth or refusal to give birth to a child in or out of wedlock. There are three main types of reproductive behavior - large (need for 5 or more children), average (need for 3-4 children) and small (need for 1-2 children). Of the two factors that determine the number of children in a family: the conditions and standard of living and the need for children, the latter plays the leading role. If the number of children in a family corresponds to the needs of the spouses in children, then no improvement in living conditions will lead to an increase in this number. But if the number of children available is less than the level of need, then improving the conditions for the realization of this need can increase the number of births.

The need for children is the socio-psychological state of the individual, when without children and their proper number and gender, a person cannot take place as a person. The need for children, attitudes towards children are internal regulators of reproductive behavior, while social norms of childbearing are external determinants of an individual's attitude towards children. Empirical Research reproductive attitudes show that for the need for 5 or more children, the leading ones are economic motives for fertility, for the need for 3-4 children - social and for the need for 1-2 children - psychological.

Undoubtedly, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia in recent years is a reaction to the socio-political and economic processes taking place in the country. The worsening economic situation and social tension lead to the abandonment of second and third children, to the postponement of their birth. Uncertainty of social and economic prospects, insecurity of the individual, decline standard of living and fear for loved ones lead to modification of demographic behavior. People refuse the desired number of children, postpone births until better times, postpone marriages or replace them with other, less stable unformed unions and other forms of relationships.

Section 3 Regional features of fertility in Russia

The Russian space itself is so large and diverse, and the population, infrastructure and production, it would seem, are "smeared" so unevenly over it that the demographic differences should be extremely striking. However, the demographic "gaps" between the regions with the best and worst indicators of economic and social life are still less pronounced than one might expect.

There is now some increase in the birth rate - the total fertility rate (TFR) in 2004 in Russia amounted to 1,340 births per woman against 1,157 births per woman.

Traditionally, the birth rate of rural women is slightly higher than that of urban women. Gradually, however, the difference between them is erased - now (2004) it is 0.418 births, while 20 years ago, in 1985-1986, it was 1.129.

The highest birth rates are characteristic of Altai and Tyva, a number of North Caucasian republics (Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Chechnya), autonomous districts of Siberia (Ust-Ordynsky and Aginsky Buryat, Taimyr, Evenk) and the Far East (Chukotsky, Koryaksky).

Only in 9 Russian regions with a total population of 1,520 thousand people (1.06% of the country's population) does the TFR exceed two children per woman, but nowhere does it reach three. Of the North Caucasian republics, such indicators are recorded by the statistical authorities only in Chechnya (2.965). Even in regions with once high birth rates - Dagestan and Kalmykia - TFRs of over 2,000 are now seen only in rural areas. Urban residents of these republics demonstrate almost the average Russian birth rate.

Reproductive attitudes and childbearing norms have ethnic characteristics. According to the All-Russian population census of 2002, the average number of children born 5 exceeds 3,000 children per 1,000 women in only one Russian ethnic group - the inhabitants of Dagestan - the Didoy Avars, whose total number is about 20 thousand people. Relatively high birth rates are noted by Kurds (dispersed geographically throughout the country), Nenets (Yamal-Nenets, Nenets, Dolgano-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs), Tabasarans (Dagestan), Ingush (Ingushetia, Chechnya), Komi-Izhma (Komi).

The total fertility rate, as an indicator highly dependent on the age structure of the population, is less informative. However, he also reveals the same picture - in the old-developed and urbanized European center, fewer children are born than in more traditional agrarian regions. But regional differences are not great - from 8-9‰ in the regions of the Center to 17-20‰ in Altai, Tyva, Dagestan.

Birth rate by region in 2007

Table number 2

	Change	Number of births	Total Fertility Rate (TFR)


Astrakhan region
Bashkortostan
Bryansk region

Voronezh region
Dagestan
Ingushetia
Karachay-Cherkessia
Krasnoyarsk region
Kurgan region
Kursk region
Leningrad region
Lipetsk region

Mordovia

Moscow region
Murmansk region
Nizhny Novgorod Region
Novgorod region
Novosibirsk region
Oryol Region
Penza region
Pskov region
Ryazan Oblast
Samara Region
Saratov region
St. Petersburg
Sverdlovsk region
Smolensk region
Tambov Region
Tula region


Ulyanovsk region


Chelyabinsk region


Yaroslavl region

According to the 2002 census, 73% of Russians are urban dwellers, 27% are rural dwellers. This ratio was the same in the previous 1989 census. One of the main features of the demographic situation of recent decades in the country is the concentration of the urban population in a small number of densely populated centers. More than 60 percent of Russia's population is concentrated in three federal districts - Central (26%), Volga (22%) and Southern (16%). The smallest is the Far Eastern Federal District - 4.6% of the population. One third of the population of Russia is concentrated in largest cities-- "millionaires" (13 cities): in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Volgograd, Perm. Moscow is one of the 20 largest cities in the world.

From table No. 2, we see that changes in the birth rate by region in 2007 increased significantly, these are Altai, Karachay-Cherkessia, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Kursk Region, Mari El, Saratov Region, Chelyabinsk Region, these regions exceed 10% of the birth rate . The number of births also increased, with an average increase of about 15%.

Chapter 4. Birth rate and population reproduction in Russia

The growth in the birth rate in Russia in 2008 amounted to about 7%, while the shortage of places in kindergartens decreased by 30%, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said during a live conversation with Russians on the Rossiya TV channel.

"This year, the largest birth rate over the past 15 years - an increase of about 7%," he said.

Table number 3. - Fertility

	Number of births (thousand people)	Birth rate (per 1000 people)

From table No. 3, we see that in a fairly short period of time, and this is 6 years, the birth rate began to increase significantly. These indicators add up positively to the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia.

Natural growth and the level of population reproduction are determined by the ratio between births and deaths. The concept of population reproduction in a broad sense includes the renewal and development of the composition of the population by sex and age, social groups, nationality and other characteristics. The mode of reproduction is determined by the socio-economic conditions of the population, reproductive attitudes and traditions.

Natural population growth is a change in the population under the influence of fertility and mortality (excluding the migration process).

The reproduction of the population is the constant renewal of its size and structure through the natural replacement of outgoing generations with new ones and the transition of one structural part to another.

The reproduction of the population in demography is called the constant renewal of the population. People die, new ones are born to replace them. Such a banal description does not allow us to understand the reasons why the population of Russia grew until the 19th century, and now it is falling, so much so that in a hundred years, a thousand-year-old Russia may disappear from the geographical map.

Gross reproduction rate of the population.

As for the frequency of the birth of girls in women of different ages, then, generally speaking, it is different. However, it will not be a big error to assume that the proportion of girls among those born is the same for all ages and is approximately 0.487-0.488. From here you can get a summary characteristic of the birth rate of the female population, which is the gross reproduction rate of the population - the number of girls that each woman will give birth to on average over the entire reproductive period. When calculating the gross coefficient, it is assumed that there is no mortality of women until the end of the reproductive age.

The gross reproduction rate of the population can be interpreted in various ways: firstly, as an age-standardized birth rate ...; secondly, as the average number of daughters that a group of women who began life at the same time could give birth to, if all of them lived to the end of the childbearing period; thirdly, as the ratio between the number of women of one generation, for example, at the age of 15, to the number of their daughters at the same age, provided that there is no mortality within the childbearing period; fourth, as the ratio between female births in two successive generations, assuming that no one dies between the beginning and end of the reproductive period.

Net reproduction rate of the population.

However, if each of the women of reproductive age gives birth to an average of R daughters, this does not mean that the number of the generation of daughters will be R times larger or smaller than the number of the generation of mothers. After all, not all of these daughters will live to the age at which their mothers were at the time of birth. And not all daughters will make it to the end of their reproductive years. This is especially true in countries with high mortality, where up to half of newborn girls may not survive to the start of the reproductive period.

Generation length

Generation length is the average time interval separating generations. It is equal to the average age of the mother at the birth of daughters who survive at least to the age in which their mothers were at the time of their birth.

We can say that the depopulation in Russia has changed from latent, latent to overt and open. And this did not depend at all on the specific political and socio-economic situation of the 1990s. of the last century, no matter what the so-called "nationally concerned scientists" and self-styled "patriots" of any color, from the ultra-left to the ultra-right, may say. The beginning of depopulation in our country was predetermined by the processes that took place in the population throughout the 20th century, especially in post-war period when there was a sharp drop in the need for children, which caused a rapid and deep drop in the birth rate. This is exactly what happens in all developed countries. Approximately one third of the world's countries have a birth rate that is less than what is necessary for simple reproduction of the population. In other words, in these countries, as in Russia, there is a hidden or obvious depopulation. And most of these countries are those in which the standard of living of the population is much higher than in our country.

Being involved in progress is, of course, impressive. But the question arises whether this is progress. Can the inexorable and rapid fall into the abyss of depopulation be called progress? Unfortunately, many demographers either ignore these damned questions, or treat the negative demographic dynamics in our country at best conciliatory, and at worst, even believing current demographic trends (especially the situation with fertility) to be something quite normal.

Section 5. Prospects for the development of the birth rate in Russia

Any policy is a combination of goals and means to achieve them. The purpose of demographic policy is to influence the development of the birth rate in the state. An increase in the birth rate is a process of quantitative and qualitative changes in the demographic sphere, the complication of its connections and relationships, which leads to its transition from one qualitative state to another, better state. Activities to influence the birth rate is an organic component of socio-economic development in general and includes the reproduction of the population.

The main directions in this aspect:

- influence on working conditions - determination of the boundaries of working age, the scale of employment of the able-bodied part of the population, the duration of the working day and the working week, labor protection, professional education, training and retraining of personnel;

- improving the living conditions of all segments of the population: the level of wages and real incomes, living conditions, consumer services, the availability of cultural achievements, medical care, the growth of free time;

Demographic policy as an integral part of population policy aims to influence the reproduction of the population. It is aimed at achieving and maintaining the desired type of this reproduction and is carried out through the implementation of special measures to influence all the demographic processes that make up the reproduction of the population, and the factors of these processes. Demographic policy is the most important element in the management of population development.

As noted in the UN document "Recommendations for the subsequent World Population Action Plan", the main direction of population policy is family planning, which is understood as a voluntary activity to achieve the desired number of children by the family on the basis of conscious motherhood. The family has social value not only in connection with the reproductive behavior of the spouses. In the family, the upbringing of children is carried out, their orientation to certain norms of social behavior, certain educational goals, to the type of future professional activity. Therefore, the family, the birth of children, health, upbringing and education of children are the center of demographic policy.

State assistance to families with children, support for the institution of the family and marriage, stimulation of the birth rate are priority areas of demographic policy. Their implementation must be accompanied by ensuring the exercise of the human right to freely and responsibly decide on the number of their children and the frequency of their birth. The freedom of the individual and the family in shaping their reproductive orientation is the main limitation in demographic policy.

As you know, in the Russian Federation there was a tendency to a sharp decrease in the birth rate, and naturally, this problem could not be left without the attention of the country's top leadership, which prompted the adoption of a number of measures to develop the birth rate in the Russian Federation, namely:

Federal Law "On additional measures state support families with children”, adopted on October 12, 2006 State Duma, according to which an amount of 250 thousand rubles will be credited to the individual accounts of women who have given birth to their second child since January 1, 2007. This money can be used to purchase housing or pay for the child's education, but not before 2010. Unspent amounts are sent to the R.F. Pension Fund. and added to the future pensions of mothers. This innovation will encourage many families to have a second child, and thereby satisfy not only their own interests, but also ensure the growth of the population of the state;

- subprogram "Providing housing for young families" of the federal target program "Housing" for 2002-2010, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 31, 2005 No. 865.

The Concept provides an assessment of the current demographic situation in the Russian Federation and trends in its development, defines the principles of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation (which are based on the complexity of solving demographic problems, choosing the most problematic issues for each direction of demographic development, taking into account regional features of demographic development, coordinating the actions of legislative and executive bodies of state power at the federal, regional and municipal levels), as well as the main tasks of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation.

The main tasks include the following:

1. Reducing the death rate of citizens, especially in working age;

2. Reducing the level of maternal and infant mortality, strengthening the reproductive health of the population, the health of children and adolescents;

3. Preserving and strengthening the health of the population, increasing the duration of an active life, creating conditions and shaping motivation for a healthy lifestyle, a significant reduction in the incidence of socially significant and dangerous diseases for others, improving the quality of life of patients suffering from chronic diseases and the disabled;

4. Increasing the birth rate;

5. Strengthening the institution of the family, reviving and preserving the spiritual and moral traditions of family relations;

6. Regulation of internal and external migration, attraction of migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration.

The concept also defines comprehensive measures implemented in three stages, the result of which should be an improvement in the demographic situation in the country.

Such measures, in particular, are: the formation of motivation among various groups of the population, especially among the younger generation, to lead a healthy lifestyle; carrying out preventive measures for the purpose of early detection of health disorders; early diagnosis of diseases using advanced technologies; increasing the availability and quality of free medical care; improvement of logistical and staffing health care institutions; application of new innovative technologies treatment and development of high-tech medical care; introduction of comprehensive health and rehabilitation programs; promotion of family values, strengthening state support for families with children; creation of conditions for the integration of immigrants into Russian society.

Thus, summing up the results of the current demographic policy, we can say with confidence that this problem of Russian reality has been given worthy attention by the state.

This can be evidenced by the results that our country has achieved in the course of the implementation and implementation of the above measures to increase the birth rate, for example, in January-September of this year, 72 thousand more babies were born in Russia than in the same period last year, and the birth rate growth was 6.6%.

The trend towards an increase in the age of marriage, the age of birth of the first and subsequent children, although with some slowdown, continues even in countries that have advanced far along the path of the second demographic transition. Over several decades, the average age at which marriage was registered and the age at which the first child was born have increased in Western countries by three to four years, exceeding 26 years for a woman (and 27 years in more than a dozen countries), and registration of marriage often follows the birth of a child. , and not vice versa. If at the beginning of the process of evolution of the age model of fertility, the contribution of mothers under 25 years of age to the final fertility rates in different countries varied within 40-60%, today in 11 countries it already amounted to 21-30%, and in 10 countries - 20% and less.

Drawing No. 2

Country lag of Eastern Europe and Transcaucasia is still more than obvious. On average, women in this part of Europe marry for the first time and give birth to their first child four to five years earlier than in the West, and the share of births at young ages (under 25) is up to half or more of the total number of births. How much the age model of fertility in Russia still differs from the model in Western countries with similar fertility levels.

Drawing No. 3

Generalized characteristics of the population of Russia in 1960-2040. (forecast based on existing trends)

What are character traits this hypothetical population (see Figure 3-4)?

· The proportion of children under 15 will be halved, while the proportion of the elderly will increase by one and a half times.

· The reproductive potential of the population will be practically exhausted.

· The economic burden on the working-age population will increase significantly.

Social institutions are extremely conservative.

The core of the latest trends in fertility is the search for an optimal model life cycle a person that meets the realities of modern life, including: high requirements for education and the level of material well-being, the mutual participation of spouses in the formation family income and the fulfillment of family responsibilities, the growing social and material independence of children and the elderly, increased control over human fertility, etc.

A survey was created in which Russians were asked how many children they would like to have. The data are presented in Table No. 4.

Table No. 4 Attitudes of Russians on the number of children in a family

Conclusion

Having reviewed and analyzed the material relating to the issue of fertility for a given period, and this problem occupies a central place in the demographic situation of the country, we can draw the following conclusions.

If you look closely at the main direction of state policy focused on increasing the birth rate, you can see that it lies precisely in the socio-economic sphere, and not in the trend of globalization of world society, and the desire of women to keep up with men. Therefore, it can be definitely said that the concept, and then the program itself, should be based on the principles of stimulating the birth rate, developing a network of children's and preschool institutions, and the widespread use of family forms of raising orphans and children without parental care. In addition, for a real solution to the problem of fertility, it is necessary to form a healthy lifestyle among the population, engage young people in physical education and sports, protect them from alcoholism and drug addiction, create new jobs and provide people with safe working conditions, and help young families to purchase housing. To this we can add almost all measures that provide the population with a high quality of life - from gasification of the village and road construction to improving the environmental situation and increasing transport security. And do not forget about the high mortality rate of the population today, uncontrolled migration, the “aging” of the nation. This concept will only work if demographic problem will be solved as a whole, and not in one part of it.

But at the same time, during the transition to a new level of demographic development, and, consequently, the transition to another, favorable state of the socio-economic and economic spheres of life of the population, it will require a huge attraction of financial, human and other resources, which, unfortunately, the Russian Federation does not have, at this level of development, or has, but there is no way to use them.

All of the above is the material part of the problem, but we should not forget about the psychological factor, which also has a huge impact. The mentality of a Russian person is built in such a way that he solves the problem at the moment of its appearance, and not in the background, this situation once again confirms this. Therefore, in order to implement the concept of Russia's development, in addition to the above, it is necessary to responsibly approach and implement this program, taking into account the life, culture and mentality of the citizens of the Russian Federation. And I have no doubt that if we approach the solution of the problem from all sides, then we will soon be able to solve the problem of demography and build a truly social legal state, i.e. something in which the constitutional principles are observed by everyone, and is equal for everyone, not in words, but in deeds showing their status, prescribed in the Constitution of the Russian Federation.

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Chapter 1 Stages of development of the birth rate in Russia.

Section 3 Regional features of fertility in Russia

Birth rate by region in 2007

Table number 2

Chapter 4. Birth rate and population reproduction in Russia

Gross reproduction rate of the population.

Net reproduction rate of the population.

The main directions in this aspect:

- influence on working conditions - determination of the boundaries of working age, the scale of employment of the able-bodied part of the population, the duration of the working day and the working week, labor protection, professional education, training and retraining of personnel;

- improving the living conditions of all segments of the population: the level of wages and real incomes, living conditions, consumer services, the availability of cultural achievements, medical care, the growth of free time;

- subprogram "Providing housing for young families" of the federal target program "Housing" for 2002-2010, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 31, 2005 No. 865.

The main tasks include the following:

1. Reducing the death rate of citizens, especially in working age;

2. Reducing the level of maternal and infant mortality, strengthening the reproductive health of the population, the health of children and adolescents;

4. Increasing the birth rate;

5. Strengthening the institution of the family, reviving and preserving the spiritual and moral traditions of family relations;

6. Regulation of internal and external migration, attraction of migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration.

The concept also defines comprehensive measures implemented in three stages, the result of which should be an improvement in the demographic situation in the country.

Thus, summing up the results of the current demographic policy, we can say with confidence that this problem of Russian reality has been given worthy attention by the state.

Drawing No. 2

Drawing No. 3

Having reviewed and analyzed the material relating to the issue of fertility for a given period, and this problem occupies a central place in the demographic situation of the country, we can draw the following conclusions.

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