Gazprom focuses on the average price of gas exports in 2017 at $180 per thousand cubic meters. Andrey Kruglov, deputy chairman of the board of the company, announced this at a press conference.
“The average price of gas supplied for export, in all likelihood, it will be higher than last year, and even than we planned in the budget,” Kruglov said.
He recalled that the budget includes a price of $166 per 1,000 cubic meters. m, in fact, the average export price of gas could be $180 per 1,000 cubic meters. m.
Kruglov estimated Gazprom's possible export earnings in 2017 at $32-34 billion. Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Board Alexander Medvedev said that Gazprom's revenue from gas exports to current year could rise to $35 billion from $30 billion last year.
Kruglov also noted that in September the company may make changes to the budget. “So far, the price of gas in our budget is $166. The budget has not been adjusted. But the forecast figures for the year will be about $180 per thousand cubic meters. And in September we will make appropriate changes to our budget,” he said.
The Deputy Chairman of the Board also noted that gas export prices, as well as plans for gas sales volumes both in the foreign and domestic markets, allow us to hope that free cash flow"Gazprom" at the end of 2017 can be comparable to last year.
“We expect that we will still maintain a positive cash flow. At the end of 2016, it amounted to more than 200 billion rubles. It is too early to name a specific value at the end of 2017, but. on at least, we can focus on some similar order of numbers. And we are given such confidence by the fact that the volumes of gas sold and domestic market, and on the export market, they are comparable, and even in large quantities compared to the results of 2016,” Kruglov said.
According to Kruglov's estimate, Gazprom's EBITDA at the end of 2017 could grow by 10% compared to 2016.
The Spanish oil company Repsol has discovered a number of large (by Western standards) fields in the Western Hemisphere, which has led to an increase in the company's reserves and production. Morgan Stanley raises recommendations for Repsol shares, and its capitalization is growing. Gazprom's reserves and production are dozens of times greater, but stock market the attractiveness of a Spanish company is higher than that of a Russian one.
Spaniards conquer America
Repsol, together with partners, discovered two fields - Horseshoe in Alaska and Savannah offshore Trinidad and Tobago - which are among the ten largest in the world, according to the rating of the consulting company IHS Markit.
The opening of the Horseshoe, which is being developed by Repsol in conjunction with US-based Armstrong Energy, was announced in early March. It is believed that this is the largest discovery in North America in the last 30 years. Horseshoe, located in Nanushuk on Alaska's North Slope, has recoverable reserves of 1.2 billion barrels. light oil (162 million tons).
The head of Repsol, Antonio Brufau, announced in early June this year the discovery of the largest gas field in the last five years on the shelf of the island state of Trinidad and Tobago, at a distance of 80 km from the coast. According to the company, the field's reserves are about 2 trillion cubic meters. feet, which corresponds to Spain's natural gas needs for two years.
In the past ten years, the Spanish oil company has significantly increased the volume of exploration, which has led to an increase in the company's resource base and production. On the shelf of Brazil in the Atlantic, hydrocarbon deposits were discovered, which were named Carioca, Sapinhoa, Gavea and Sagitario - the first two are already being mined.
During exploration work in Peru, the Kinteroni field was discovered with reserves of up to 3 trillion cubic meters. feet (78 Mtoe). According to Western agencies, this field was one of the most significant discoveries in the global oil and gas industry in 2008.
In 2009, a project involving Repsol in Venezuela discovered the huge Perla gas field. The reserves of the deposit are estimated at 16 trillion cubic meters. feet (416 thousand toe).
Capitalization of production achievements
In total, from 2007 to 2017, Repsol discovered 47 hydrocarbon fields, of which ten were recognized as the largest discoveries of the year. Half of these fields are already producing oil. The Spanish company has formed a portfolio of the most promising projects that should ensure a steady increase in production in the Western Hemisphere.
Repsol bets on implementation advanced technologies and cooperates with world-class IT companies such as IMB and Barcelona Supercomputing Center, which allows you to quickly develop new fields.
The total reserves of Repsol, according to the company's own estimates, at the end of 2016 amounted to 2.38 billion barrels. AD (about 330 million toe) - three quarters of this volume is gas. Production last year increased by 27% compared to 2015, reaching 447 thousand barrels. AD (24.9 million toe/year).
The expansion of the resource base due to the discovery of Horseshoe and Savannah, as well as the expected increase in hydrocarbon production, prompted analysts at Morgan Stanley to upgrade Repsol from Hold to Buy. Morgan Stanley believes that these securities have upside potential of 20%, and their value could rise to 17.5 euros per share. Now the shares of the Spanish company are quoted at the level of 14.5 euros per unit, and the capitalization is 22.4 billion euros.
Repsol posted a net profit of 52 million euros last year against a loss of 925 million euros in 2015.
Gazprom vs Repsol: who is better
The Russian Gazprom plans to increase production to 460 billion cubic meters this year. m. (414 million toe) against 419.07 billion cubic meters. m in 2016. The company's potential allows increasing production to 600 bcm. m/g for the shortest possible period of time. At the same time, significant capital investments not required for production. Last year, Gazprom delivered over 179 billion cubic meters to non-CIS countries. m of gas, providing more than a third of the demand for this type of fuel in Europe.
Last week, the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, said that this year the Tambey group of fields on the Yamal Peninsula received an increase in reserves in the amount of more than 4 trillion cubic meters. m (3.6 billion toe) - almost ten times more than Repsol's reserves around the world, even taking into account the Horseshoe and Savannah opened this year.
At the end of 2016, Gazprom had gas reserves only in Russia - in categories A + B + C1 in accordance with Russian classification- in the amount of 36.44 trillion cubic meters. m (32.8 billion toe).
During the Eastern Economic Forum, the head of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Sergey Donskoy, said that the State Commission for Mineral Reserves of the Russian Federation approved an increase in gas reserves at the fields of the Tambey group in the amount of 3.9 trillion cubic meters. m (3.51 billion toe).
The classification of hydrocarbon reserves adopted in the West differs from the Russian one and is more stringent, however, Gazprom's resource base, as well as production, is dozens of times higher than the corresponding Repsol indicators.
Based on the value of Gazprom shares on the Moscow Exchange on August 6, 2017, the capitalization of the largest gas producing company in the world is only 2.59 trillion rubles. (about 37.8 billion euros). At the same time, most Western banks recommend either holding or selling shares Russian company.
Shares of Gazprom, like most Russian companies, remain extremely undervalued, primarily due to the lack of domestic institutional investors. Large Western investors are reluctant to buy shares in Russian companies, especially in times of sanctions.
As practice shows, the use of indicators alone for successful trading in large markets is not enough. Companies in the long run are not driven by moods at all, but by events that form real capitalization. This is especially true for resource companies, to see the full picture, let's make a forecast for Gazprom shares for the rest of 2017.
To predict the movement of quotes, consider:
- price levels past 2016;
- market reaction to recent events;
- fundamental factors affecting the value of the company;
- correlation of stocks with the national currency.
Gazprom quotes forecast for 2017
Consider the price levels of 2016. Gazprom has been showing ambiguous dynamics for the past three years. This is partly due to the search for alternative gas export routes, partly due to the economic blockade of Russia.
During 2016, the company either lost positions due to inept management, or returned value in the short term due to the oil crises, which are rich in the previous year.
The situation with Shtokman
The halt to the development of Shtokman (the world's largest gas field), which was announced in November 2016 against investors' expectations, was the main event of the year, thanks to which Gazprom became popular again. Market participants were satisfied with the termination of development. This led to an increase in confidence from foreign companies, and in conjunction with lower development costs for the proposed gas field, provoked a large upward trend, which pushed quotes to a record 159 rubles per share.
Vladivostok LNG
The suspension of the Vladivostok LNG project had an extremely negative impact on the value of Gazprom shares, however, by a lucky chance, at that moment the ruble showed a large negative trend. Due to this, the negative factor was smeared inverse to the ruble.
As experts' forecasts show, the outflow of investor funds was not as great as it could be in more favorable times for the Russian Federation. According to forecasts, the suspension of Vladivostok LNG development provoked a long July-September trend, when quotes fell from the level of 147 rubles per share to the level of 133 rubles.
Technical forecast for Gazprom
If we consider the quotes of Gazprom shares on several timeframes, then in the coming months we can safely predict a reversal, because. current situation predicts the formation of the second wave of the graphic. But if the psychological level of 121.00 is broken and the price consolidates below it, then traders should expect a further bearish trend.
The first bottom formed between April 24 and 29. After that, we observed a weekly correction, which was caused by an unstable situation related to D. Trump's policy regarding military operations outside the United States. In the future, we saw a fall, which, with minor adjustments, continues to this day and may build the second phase of the pattern...
A likely development scenario according to Gazprom's forecasts is a trend reversal in early June, which will stabilize the quotes at the level of 128-130 rubles per share.
As for Gazprom and the use of indicators, we can say that in the near future the market will be inert, and if there are large fluctuations, it will be solely due to fundamental factors.
Fundamental price analysis of Gazprom PAO in 2017
As the analysis shows, today the value of the largest Russian company, Gazprom, is governed by the following events:
- change in the rate of natural gas production;
- a strong drop in oil prices due to a new crisis in the east;
- optimization of the company's resources associated with the construction of an alternative gas pipeline.
Let's consider in more detail. According to forecasts, a change in the pace of natural gas production is a necessary measure in view of the next oil crisis. Subject to maintaining a fixed cost of gas under futures contracts, present value 100 cubic meters has increased greatly. Due to the increased operation of the equipment, depreciation also increases. As a result, such a pace pushes the quotes up, but after a few months of such intensive, there will be expenses for the modernization and repair of equipment, which will result in a rather sharp correction.
With the overall negative dynamics, we will be able to make forecasts for Gazprom regarding further decline, after the June correction.
The cost of oil lowers the cost of gas as an alternative resource, and all this is a logical continuation of the political conflicts in Eastern countries. Together, we can observe powerful impulse pushes of quotes down, regardless of whether Gazprom is in a trend or in a flat.
The same applies to the optimization of resources, if the company manages to complete construction before the end of the autumn season, then we will be able to forecast a big rise, supposedly starting at the end of August, and lasting throughout the rest of the year. In the absence of news of the completion of the project, we may see an increase in the negative impact of overspending corporate funds allocated for the construction of an alternative gas line.
Correlation with the ruble
Considering Gazprom quotes, we always pay attention to the cost against the ruble. Of course, after all Gazprom can be purchased exclusively on the Russian stock market. However, if we consider the dynamics of the ruble in parallel with the forecast of Gazprom's quotations for the past periods, we can note that sometimes the state currency showed a negative correlation coefficient in relation to the quotations of the gas corporation.
And this means that at these moments, in fact, Gazprom did not rise in price and did not fall in price, just that part of the assets that is hedged in foreign currency gave the appearance of great movements. this can be seen if you look at the charts between February and April 2017, when, due to the Trump Currency War, Gazprom grew by several percent.
Forecast for the rest of the year from an expert
At current dynamics market, there are two main forecasts for the further development of quotations - neutral and negative.
The neutral scenario implies the completion of the construction of a new gas line, which will provide a good inflow of funds due to the ability to export gas without passing through the countries of Eastern Europe. In this case according to experts' forecasts, the cost of building a new gas channel, as well as a decrease in the cost of gas for a number of countries, will be able to pull up Gazprom's quotes to 150-155 rubles per share, which, however, is easily offset by the loss of volumes in the Eastern European market.
Until the conclusion of new futures contracts for the supply of Russian gas, the forecast shows that Gazprom will be able to hold this position until approximately September-October 2017.
At negative development events, the cost of construction of the gas line is expected to affect the quotes of Gazprom, which will provoke further pressure from the market and investors. In this case, by September, we can expect the shares to fall to 110-115 rubles, followed by winning back to 118-120. The forecasts of the majority of experts lean closer to the second scenario, especially given the stage at which the construction is…
Conclusion
According to the results forecast, Gazprom shares in 2017 are an extremely toxic asset. This year they have already updated the minimum of their value twice. As for recommendations for , minimize risks and reduce the volume of Gazprom's transactions to a minimum if you find it difficult to predict the direction of prices.
The instability of the company is explained as a protracted blockade Russian Federation, and unprofitable economic efforts to build a new gas channel bypassing the countries of Eastern Europe. As regards the forecast for long term investment. It is better to refrain from investing assets in this company.
OAO Gazprom is one of the leading shareholders in Russia. Gazprom shares located on more than 470 thousand accounts, they amount to 23673512900 units and are considered one of the most liquid shares of the Russian stock market. In addition, 50% valuable papers Society under the control of the state. Meetings of shareholders during voting adhere to the rule - "share - vote". The exception to the rule is cumulative voting, conducted according to federal law"On Joint Stock Companies".
Certificate of OAO "Gazprom"
Gazprom shares value today
The formation of a share price is made up of many factors, such as fluctuations in prices for services and goods of JSC, the introduction of new products on the market, the activities of the media sector, the behavior of competitors, criticism of the Company's actions from external traders, changes in tax legislation, changes in prices for materials and raw materials, the economic situation in the country, stock quotes. In view of the above the price of Gazprom shares is set.
The cost of Gazprom shares in rubles
Ordinary shares are securities that are open for purchase by individuals without any limits. Such securities are freely traded on the stock markets. The purchase of ordinary shares allows you to receive dividends (non-fixed) and participate in shareholder meetings. However, there is no guarantee that dividends will be paid on time. Gazprom share price today fluctuates around 123 rubles and can be viewed online on the official website.
Gazprom is an enterprise that has abandoned preferred share. This decision is connected with the desire to establish equality between the owners of securities in making a profit, which was the reason for the creation of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR).
The state, together with the leaders of OAO Gazprom, carried out extensive work, the purpose of which was to liberalize the company's securities market. After receiving 50% of the Company's securities in 2005, the state fulfilled the condition for resetting all limits on the purchase and circulation of Gazprom shares. In the spring of 2006, the ADR program was launched (American depository receipt). The program allows US issuers' receipts to be traded on OTC markets and provides for the receipt of such receipts by individuals.
Now, due to the unstable external economic situation, the value of the company's securities is falling, but such price changes are quite normal, prices change within 24 hours.
Gazprom share price
For more than a decade, the Company has been maintaining the level of one of the leading enterprises in terms of the stability of dividend payments to shareholders. Daily share of Gazprom shares in trading 17%, Gazprom stock quotes grew even during the crisis, so, based on reviews about Gazprom shares on forums in a few years, you can come to the conclusion that the company's papers are ideal for long-term investment.
Basic information about the shares of PJSC Gazprom
Dividends
At the beginning of 2017, almost 9 rubles were paid as dividends per share at a price of 128 rubles. Gazprom dividends for 2016 per share at a price of 126 rubles amounted to 7.89 rubles. The numbers seem insignificant, but it should be understood that a block of shares is bought once, and profits are regular and gradually grow.
Buy Gazprom shares for an individual
In total there are three ways to become the owner of a share of shares and each of them is tied to a brokerage job. The only difference is in the form of ownership of a block of shares, the procedure for drawing up an agreement, direct presence or online, interest charged for services rendered.
A private person is not entitled to buy and sell shares on his own. There are only two ways out of this situation - register legal entity Or use the services of a brokerage firm. In fact, there is another way to buy securities directly from the owner, however, such a purchase will be registered in a special Registry.
All individuals, including non-residents, can purchase Gazprom shares in Sberbank. Purchased assets can be managed online in the Sberbank CIB client system. The purchase process lasts from two to three days, depending on the nationality and the number of shares purchased. To buy shares, you need to open an account with Sberbank, determine the number of assets to be acquired and choose a method for storing them, it is better to place securities on deposit.
The structure of the joint stock capital of PJSC"Gazprom"
Buying shares in Gazprombank is the most profitable, since this bank is a direct seller of the company's securities. The only difference in the purchase process is that they require to show documents, registration and the required amount. The bank opens an account with a specified amount for the purchase or sale. Interest for services rendered will be significantly less than in Sberbank.
The easiest way to purchase shares is to contact brokers, but this is only from a technical point of view, in order to invest your funds in Gazprom securities and not delve into the nuances of the stock markets. Since there are a huge number of brokerage firms operating on the stock market, you need to be as careful as possible when looking for a reliable broker. But it should be understood that the more famous and reputable the brokerage representative is, the more agreements they have for cooperation. The standard clearance requirements for clients is the established limit Money on the client's account, asset mobility time limits, established order actions with securities. Interest rates brokerage houses for services rendered and subscription fee vary based on the status of the office. Only after the market of brokerage services has been carefully studied should one turn to intermediaries. The very procedure for buying shares is the same as in banks - providing an identity document, opening an account, transferring funds and directly purchasing a security.
Official website of the holder of shareholders of PJSC "Gazprom"
Sale of shares
The procedure for selling shares will not cause difficulties, since it is the reverse of the algorithm for acquiring securities. The sale is also carried out through Gazprombank, brokerage firms and Sberbank. Buying and selling shares between individuals, is registered by a representative of a brokerage firm, who enters the transaction and all information about it in a special Register.
Rosneft for the first time overtook Gazprom in terms of capitalization, both in Moscow and London. Ruble share price oil company reached a historic high
Rosneft on Monday for the first time overtook Gazprom in terms of market capitalization. At 13.40 Moscow time, the value of the oil company on the Moscow Exchange was 3.468 trillion rubles, the gas concern - 3.450 trillion rubles. By the end of the trading day, Rosneft lost its leadership on this site (its capitalization amounted to 3.44 trillion rubles against 3.49 trillion rubles from Gazprom). But at the close of trading on the London Stock Exchange, Rosneft was still ahead of its competitor: there, its capitalization at the end of the day amounted to almost $51.67 billion (plus 4.2% compared to the opening of trading), and Gazprom — $51.49 billion (plus 1.21%).
The ruble price of Rosneft shares on Monday also updated its historical maximum - at the close of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the company's share was worth 325 rubles. a piece. The previous record is 318.05 rubles. per share was established on March 22. During the day, the company's shares rose by 2.69% while the MICEX index rose by 1.58%. The cost of Brent oil on Monday rose by 1.81% to $42.68 per barrel.
Rosneft owes the new record primarily to an increase in oil prices (from the lows of the beginning of the year, Brent has already risen in price by 50%), analysts interviewed by RBC say. Conjuncture in the gas market, on the contrary, plays against Gazprom - European prices are at historical low at $130 per 1 thousand cubic meters. m, says Alexander Kornilov, senior analyst at Aton, the concern also has no prospects for increasing supplies to Europe, taking into account the end of the heating season.
Financial results
Rosneft's revenue in 2015 decreased by 6% (to RUB 5.15 trillion), while EBITDA increased immediately by 17.8% (up to 1.25 trillion rubles). Net profit of the state-owned company in rubles increased by 2%, amounting to 355 billion rubles The devaluation helped: in dollar terms, Rosneft's profit fell by 34.4%. Rosneft's net debt in dollar terms decreased by 47% at the end of the year, to $23.2 billion, the ratio of debt to EBITDA was 1.12.
Gazprom has not yet reported under IFRS for 2015. According to Renaissance Capital forecasts, the gas concern's EBITDA will be RUB 1.98 trillion, net profit — RUB 780 billion
The growth in the capitalization of Rosneft is also due to the fact that the state-owned company is included in the privatization plan, said Ildar Davletshin, an analyst at Renaissance Capital. Investors expect that this year there may be 19.5% of the shares of the state-owned company for sale. Since the beginning of the year, Rosneft's receipts in London have risen in price by 40% against 18% for Gazprom. So far, the state-owned oil company is outpacing both private LUKOIL (plus 30%) and the entire Russian energy sector (plus 22%) in terms of growth, the expert says. For comparison, over the same time, the quotes of world oil majors in oil industry grew by only 2%, while companies developing countries- by 5%. Finally, in London, Rosneft quotes are supported by low liquidity ADR - in a growing market, demand for its papers is growing faster than that of the gas monopoly, Davletshin notes.
