Started at the end of summer, the growth of rates on bank deposits in rubles continued in September. Seasonal deposits with a higher rate of return (7% per annum) have already appeared. Experts tell you whether it is worth placing your funds on the proposed conditions, or it makes sense to wait for better offers to appear.
Post Bank offers until October 31 to open a ruble deposit in the amount of 50 thousand rubles. for a period of 367 days at 7% per annum. In Sberbank, until October 5, you can open a two-year ruble deposit in the amount of 10 thousand at 6.7% per annum. In VTB, under the same 6.7%, they offer to open a deposit online, for a period of 380 days and in volume from 50 thousand rubles.
According to Leading Analyst of Expert RA Agency Maria Zinina, the increase in rates observed since August is explained by the influence of a number of factors:
- First, it is the growth of geopolitical risks due to the possible further escalation of sanctions.
- Secondly, the desire of banks against the background of the depreciation of the ruble to reduce the risks of losing ruble savings of customers with their overflow into foreign currency.
- The third factor is the expectations of a tightening of the monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank. On September 14, the Central Bank raised key rate for the first time since 2014
According to Analyst Alexey Antonov from Alor Group, a consequence of serious devaluation pressure on the ruble against the backdrop of declining in 2018. bank rates the emergence of significant risks of an outflow of funds from the population and organizations from ruble accounts. Thus, in July, the aggregate increase in deposits of citizens throughout the banking sector showed values very close to zero, which indicated the prospect of going into the red. The negative was mitigated after an increase in the average maximum rate of the top 10 leading banks to 6.55% (from 6.3%) at the end of August. As a result, the growth of individual deposits in August was higher than in July, reaching 1.1%.
Experts consider it possible to further increase the profitability of ruble deposits. Antonov believes that the weakness of the ruble, even after its relative strengthening at the end of September, remains obvious to citizens. Although the key rate was raised by 25 percentage points, for a radical turnaround in the market due to the growth in the profitability of ruble deposits, the rate needs to be increased to at least 8.5%. And this is unlikely to happen before the end of the year. However, already this autumn, an additional increase in the rate by 25-50 points is very likely. After the banks receive such a signal from the regulator, it is quite realistic to increase deposit rates in October-November, the expert sums up.
According to Deputy Chairman of the Board of Loko-Bank Andrey Lokshin, the smooth growth of ruble rates will continue until the end of 2018, and in December we can expect the appearance of really interesting offers for deposits in rubles. However, this growth will not be explosive. The maximum rates will rise by 1%, but only for long periods and large sums. In October-November, you can count on an increase in profitability of a maximum of 0.5% relative to the current proposals, - the banker believes.
Despite the fact that banks do not usually enter the market with attractive offers in autumn, now most credit institutions have prepared gifts for their customers. Since September, they have begun to gradually raise rates on deposits.
According to the statistics of the Bank of Russia, the average maximum interest rate on ruble deposits in ten Russian banks attracting the largest volume of deposits individuals, in the third decade of September 2018 increased to 6.71%.
At the same time, if you look at the statistics, it is obvious that the rate has been growing for several weeks. Thus, in the second decade of the month the rate was at the level of 6.65%, in the first decade of September - 6.61%.
The ten leaders in terms of deposits are,,.
At the same time, according to monitoring on , there are offers on the market to place money with a rate above 7%. So, now at a rate of 7-8%, you can put money in the bank for both six months and a year.
Bets on foreign currency deposits also grew up. Now on the market you can find rates on dollar deposits in the region of 2-3%. At the same time, the growth rate of foreign currency deposits is higher than that of ruble deposits.
According to the statistics of the Central Bank, the base rate of return (arithmetic mean of the maximum interest rates on deposits in banks that attract the largest amount of funds from the population) of the most popular dollar deposits with a placement period of 181 days to one year in January was 1.88%, in July the indicator increased to 2.35%, in September rose to the level of 2.76% per annum.
Experts explain this growth by the fall of the ruble and panic among depositors. In particular, the Russians reacted very nervously to the statements of the head of VTB, who proposed to the government a plan to de-dollarize the economy.
In early September, he also announced a possible conversion of foreign currency deposits into rubles in the event of a US ban on holding Russian banks dollar bills.
“In conditions of increased nervousness, the reassuring message “in the worst case, we will return it in rubles” can often be perceived as a harbinger of forced conversion, and according to an unknown exchange rate and as a result, instead of replenishment under the raised rates, there is a withdrawal”,
According to statistics, "free money" in the average household is now no more than 25-30 thousand rubles, he adds. Real incomes are falling due to rising taxes and an increase in regular obligatory payments, such as utility bills, taxes, insurance, etc.
According to Rosstat, in January-August, real disposable incomes of the population (incomes adjusted for inflation and mandatory payments) grew by only 2.2% yoy, and in August they were in the red by 0.9%. For the past four years, revenues have been falling.
This leaves an imprint on consumer behavior. Expenses are growing very moderately. So turnover retail grew by 2.7% in eight months.
In the latest issue of the information and analytical commentary "Economy: facts, estimates, comments" of the Central Bank, it is noted that in August the moderate growth consumer demand, with the most noticeable increase in purchases of non-food products.
“The significant increase in purchases of non-food products is largely due to the increase in inflationary expectations of the population due to the weakening of the ruble and the upcoming increase in VAT,” the Central Bank believes.
According to a survey by LLC "inFOM", the population considers the current time as the most suitable for making large purchases.
These purchases are often made on credit, because own funds citizens are not always enough.
According to the Central Bank data for eight months of this year, credit institutions issued loans to the population for 13.89 trillion rubles, which is 14% more than a year earlier. At the same time, deposits of Russians in banks increased over the same period by 1.8% to 27.37 trillion rubles.
At the same time, if we take August separately, then over the last summer month, deposits decreased by 0.6%, although loans continued to grow by 2.4%.
Given the rise in prices after the VAT increase, some citizens will make purchases of durable goods at the end of this year, and not the next, as originally planned, commented earlier to Gazeta.Ru, Vice President of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers).
For the first time since October 2017, the average maximum rate on deposits of the largest Russian banks showed an increase, and a very significant one at that. Why did this happen, understood Banki.ru.
Growth you didn't expect
The average maximum rate of the top 10 Russian banks in rubles for the second ten days of June was 6.45% against the minimum for the entire history of the Central Bank's observations of 6.05% for the first ten days. This is evidenced by the data published by the Bank of Russia on Monday. Compared to the beginning of June, the rate increased by 0.4 percentage points at once. This is the first increase since October 2017.
At the peak of 15.635%, the maximum rate of the top 10 banks on ruble deposits was at the end of December 2014 - after a sharp increase by the Central Bank of the key rate (immediately by 6.5 percentage points - up to 17% per annum) to stabilize the situation on the foreign exchange market .
The top ten banks with the largest volume of ruble deposits of the population include Sovcombank, VTB, Raiffeisenbank, Gazprombank, Binbank, Alfa-Bank, FC Otkritie Bank, Promsvyazbank and Rosselkhozbank.
Football raises the stakes
The temporary increase in the average maximum rate of the top 10 Russian banks, most likely, was affected by the seasonal deposit of Sberbank "Pobeday" with a rate of 6% per annum, says Yulia Proshina, head of analytics for deposits and deposits at Banki.ru. At the same time, the credit institution emphasized that in honor of the victory of the Russian national football team, the “Win” deposit was extended until July 8. In May, Sberbank became the funds of individuals, losing 58 billion rubles.
In addition, Rosselkhozbank introduced an insurance deposit "Reliable Future" with rates of 7.1-7.3%.
Sberbank explained the increase in the maximum rate by the fact that it is important for credit institutions to raise new money to compensate for seasonal outflows. The press service also noted that already in August, such activities cease until the end of the year.
Experts believe that there are multidirectional trends in the deposit market.
“The vectors are multidirectional, some banks raise rates, others lower them. The increase in rates is associated, on the one hand, with the tightening of the rhetoric of the Bank of Russia regarding monetary policy (MP) at the last meeting of the Board of Directors and the decision to keep the key rate at the current level of 7.25%. And also with the growth of OFZ yields: now the yield of ten-year issues of these securities is 7.7-7.8% per annum. For the first time in the last three years, a positive carry appeared on the OFZ market: you can take REPO at 7.1% and invest in OFZ at current yields or use it to fund even more low rates deposits. On the other hand, for the duration of the football championship, many banks had deposits with improved conditions,” explains Konstantin Kochergin, head of the financial markets operations department at Vostochny Bank.
More loans, more expensive deposits
Irina Grigorieva, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Loko-Bank, believes that the growth in rates can be explained by attempts to revive the deposit market, which in 2018 does not show significant growth. “At the same time, we must not forget that the largest players have rates on deposits that are significantly lower than the market and an increase of 0.45% still does not bring them closer to the level of rates of active players. This increase does not indicate a lack of liquidity in the market. Major Players enliven the standard summer lull with seasonal offers. New savings among the population are not actively growing. Banks open the fight for the current depositor,” says Grigorieva.
It is possible that the June increase in deposit rates is associated with a noticeable market revival. consumer lending, suggests financial analyst"BCS Premier" Alexander Taraskin. “Banks allocate funds attracted to deposits for lending. Given the upward trend in demand for loan products from individuals in the second quarter of 2018, banks are trying not to miss the opportunity to increase both credit and deposit portfolios", - suggested the expert.
Due to the fact that banks constantly lowered rates, the population began to lose interest in deposits, experts point out.
“With the exception of Sberbank, a number of other banks from the top 10, on the contrary, have recently lowered rates (the same Sovcombank). As for the decline in citizens' interest in deposits, the statistics of the Central Bank in May recorded a decrease in the total volume of deposits. That is, now even the interest capitalized on deposits does not keep this indicator from reducing. Although, according to the results of the first five months current year The trend is positive and is likely to remain so throughout the year. But the total growth in household deposits in banks this year is likely to be lower than in previous years,” believes Dmitry Amirov, head of the deposit and commission products development department at Binbank.
Foreign currency deposits are more likely to rise in price than ruble deposits
All interviewed representatives financial market noticed that there is a tendency to increase rates on currency deposits. "AT this moment there is an increase in rates on deposits in dollars on the market,” Yulia Proshina says. “We see no reason to further increase rates on ruble deposits, but growth on foreign currency deposits is quite likely, as the cost of foreign currency liquidity has increased, while deposit rates have remained unchanged,” notes Konstantin Kochergin.
Low rates on ruble deposits make current depositors interested in alternative instruments for investing funds. “The deposit remains one of the most popular instruments for investing funds, since even risk-averse investors usually keep part of their portfolio in the most liquid and guaranteed instruments - deposits. At the same time, with the general decrease in deposit rates, which we have been observing for quite a long time, the population has noticeably increased interest in alternative instruments for investing funds, ”concludes Alexander Taraskin from BCS Premier.
January 2019
Since the beginning of 2018, there has been a rather impressive decrease in interest on deposits for all credit institutions operating on the territory of the Russian Federation. What are they made of and why are deposit rates increasing or decreasing - the answers to these questions are in today's publication.
How is the interest rate determined on a deposit?
The interest rate on deposits depends on a number of factors that determine what its current value will be. Interest on deposits fall or rise, formed under the influence of:
- the general economic situation in the state - inflationary processes, the state of the country's international debts are taken into account;
- stability and financial well-being of a particular bank where the deposit is located - the more reliable the company, the sooner the percentage offered to investors will increase;
- deposit options - the basic terms of the contract initially form this indicator;
- currencies - if the deposit is in rubles, the amount of dividends will be an order of magnitude larger than on capital invested in a bank in foreign currency.
And, finally, the main argument that forms the value considered in the article is the Central Bank's rate on deposits. It is determined by the main financial institution RF, and any changes this indicator will inevitably affect a particular bank rate.
Why are deposit rates going down?
Bets on bank deposits fell - why is this happening? First, it is important to understand that such a process is an economic norm. In 2020, there is a general and dynamic change in rates for a fall, and, according to experts' forecasts, this trend will continue further. The domestic market is gradually coming back to normal. Accruals on long-term contracts become higher than on short-term ones. Companies no longer need short-term liquidity. Working for a fall, they automatically reduce the rate of investment by adjusting financial flows and encouraging Russians to invest for longer periods of time.
The main reason for lowering the rate is a sufficient amount of cash against the background of a decrease in demand for consumer lending to the population. The popularity of obtaining multiple loans by one client is sharply declining. Thus, there is nowhere to allocate finances, and it is objectively not profitable to charge an increased interest on capital that, in fact, does not work. Wherein short term investment are practically not justified, and only 5-6% of potential bank depositors are able to give money for a long time.
The second circumstance that provokes a decrease in the indicator is a general drop in base rate Sberbank immediately in all directions. So did the rest of the big ones. financial institutions. And the last reason that provided in current period low deposit rates. This is a slight reduction in the Central Bank rate, which, according to analysts, will be reduced even more by 2020.
When will interest rates increase?
How realistic and predictable is the increase in interest rates on deposits? This question is of interest to all citizens who invest their savings in domestic banks. What to expect in the near future? And if growth is still possible, how and under the influence of what factors will this happen?
Analysts do not this account optimistic forecasts - no growth is expected in the next 12-15 months. The situation will begin to change if there is a deficit in the Central Bank cash capital, and assets will fall. There will be a sense in additional incentives for investment, and the main lever for activating these processes is increased interest on deposits. Moreover, small non-state commercial companies will react most quickly, offering their customers not only more loyal conditions for investing a deposit, but also promising them an attractive reward for the opportunity to use money.
The only thing that those who trust large banks and expect their profits to grow can count on is to track Special offers. As a rule, they are launched by festive events and dates - then an increase in interest on deposits is most likely.
What to do as an investor - step by step instructions
Since bank clients cannot change the situation in the country's economic market, the right decision in the event of an unforeseen reduction in rates is to return the deposit. This is done as follows:
- contact the bank personally;
- we submit a written application addressed to the head of the organization with the requirement to return the body of capital and the additional amount already accrued to it within the framework of the deposit agreement;
- wait five days statutory time for consideration of the application;
- after the specified period, we again contact the bank - if the desired result is not followed, we require a written reason for the refusal;
- we go to the consumer protection department or law enforcement authorities (the inspection will check and, if the rights of the depositor have been violated, financial company will be required to return the money).
Whether the rates on deposits will grow, does not depend on the depositor. However, it is quite possible to increase your financial profit even against the background of their decline, if you do not ignore the following advice from experts in the field of economics and banking and take into account the following points:
- When choosing the type of deposit, we give preference to such programs where there is the possibility of replenishing capital at any stage of the contract, because the profit is calculated on the amount of funds invested in the company.
- We try to capitalize the invested funds as often as possible. It increases the body of the original amount, respectively, even if reduced rate the final income will be higher. It is good if this procedure is carried out monthly.
- Terms of validity of the contract - an agreement concluded for more than one year (provided that it is not terminated at the request of the client ahead of schedule) will always give more benefits than short-term investments.
- When choosing an investment currency, we give preference to the Russian ruble - the amount of basic charges for it will always be more than for the euro or the dollar.
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