Not every representative of states that can be defined as developed or developing is specified. Nevertheless, this process in one way or another has a significant impact on the quality of life of the population of the entire planet.
What is a population explosion
This term can be called unequivocally relevant for many modern countries. It is used to describe a sharp, dynamic population growth on a global scale. As a rule, such a process is due to an increased birth rate in developing countries. But in this moment this trend is on the decline, as certain socio-economic shifts are taking place in such countries.
The tangible change in the role of women in the family and society has had its impact on the growth of the population of various states. It's about on the active involvement of the fairer sex in production processes.
Why is this question relevant?
Speaking about what a population explosion is, it is worth paying attention to the following fact: both the present state of mankind and many areas of its future life are determined by the quality of the population. We are talking about a complex of socio-psychological and medical-genetic factors that affect people's lives.
As an example, we can cite the level of comfort in a particular region, the physical health of the population, the degree of development of intellectual resources, as well as their reproduction. In addition, as recent studies have shown, even a 1% increase in the population of the country leads to the absorption of several percent of the increase. national income states. This, of course, has a tangible impact on the state of the country's economy.
Therefore, ignoring the fact of population growth - and even more so the population explosion - will be extremely difficult and unreasonable.
What is the essence of the population explosion
This process was recorded in the history of mankind several times and it was always due to the demographic revolution. This term is used to describe a significant change in the sphere of the planet. The result of such tangible changes is a large time gap between such elements. life cycle human as birth and death rates.
Thus, we can make the following statement: the population explosion is nothing but a consequence of the incompleteness of the demographic revolution.
The rapid decline in the death rate leads to the emergence of the revolution itself. The latter, in turn, can have two key causes: endogenous and exogenous. The first term should be understood as processes related to environmental influences and aging. Various external circumstances can be attributed to exogenous causes. It can be wars, famine, accidents, unsanitary conditions and other similar factors.
Continuing to understand what a population explosion is and what are its causes, one should pay attention to a sharp decrease in mortality. In most cases, this is due to a decrease in the negative impact. If such a phenomenon is simultaneously accompanied by an increase in the birth rate (procreation behavior of people), then a population explosion will occur.
The situation in the modern world
A feature of the population explosion that can be observed now is that such indicators as fertility and mortality have changed significantly. In fact, people began to die less often and later than in past centuries. Of course, in some regions there are significant problems with the health of residents, as well as the environment. But most representatives of human civilization live much longer than their predecessors.
This trend can be defined as a demographic revolution in which there is no decline in procreation behavior. This is due to significant progress in the field of medicine and a number of other important factors.
The population explosion is typical for countries located in various parts of the world, so it can be called global. This is the first time in the history of mankind that such growth dynamics has been observed. Any bursts that were recorded earlier were local in nature and did not have such a global scale.
Forecasts
If we analyze the causes of the population explosion, we can come to the following conclusion: the dynamic growth of the population will stop when the gap between the birth rate and death rate is neutralized. And if modern researchers have almost figured out the reasons for the decrease in the percentage of deaths, then the factors that provoke a surge in the birth rate are in the process of being studied, which means they cannot be accurately predicted.
When trying to calculate the possible growth in the number of people, it is important to take into account the potential for a population explosion. This means that in standard calculations it is necessary to include the age structure of those regions that are analyzed. In other words, it is necessary to take into account the following fact: in - due to the high birth rate - young women predominate age structure. This leads to the formation of a positive potential for a population explosion.
If we take into account the calculations made by the UN experts, we can see that the consequences of the population explosion will lead to the following result: the world's population will reach an average of 12.2 billion people by 2075. At the same time, the projected highest level is 15.8, and the lowest is 9.5 billion people.
Consequences of the population surge
The fact that the population in various regions of the planet is growing rapidly affects various areas of people's lives. This fact has a significant stimulating effect on the growth of industry, the development of the transport industry, the increase in the consumption of raw materials and the production of energy.
Per capita consumption of energy and material resources is constantly and rapidly increasing, and the dynamics of this growth is even higher than the growth rate of the world's population. A lot of funds are allocated for the development of military resources. This confirms the fact that more than $6 trillion has been spent on the military sector since World War II. It should be noted that this particular area is a key stimulator of the growth of industrial and energy production, as well as the dynamic development of the technological component.
These are not the only changes that the population explosion provokes. Problems in the field of the product group are also its consequence. In order to increase the yield and meet the needs of the growing population of various regions, in the second half of the twentieth century, agricultural producers began the process of intensification. This led to the use of various toxicants, as well as artificial fertilizers.
Such a practice has Negative consequences. For example, heavily used pesticides are very harmful to humans. It has already been proven that direct poisoning by the mentioned substances is the cause of the annual death of 10 thousand people, as well as the death of forests, insects and birds.
How are things in Russia
This region of the world has experienced significant population growth. Previously, a similar phenomenon was recorded at the end of the 19th century and in the second half of the 20th. Regarding the current period, some official sources argue that the population explosion in Russia is a fact that there is no point in denying.
Conclusion
The demographic revolution, which may go unnoticed by some population groups and even countries, nevertheless has a significant impact on the situation around the world. This means that the governments of the leading states need a competent and timely response to this fact.
Introduction
The concept and essence of the population explosion
Impact of the population explosion on international economic security
Conclusion
Bibliographic list
Introduction
In the demographic history of mankind, two large periods can be conditionally distinguished. The first of these corresponded to the so-called agrarian civilization and lasted approximately until the second half of the 17th century. It had a relatively low population growth. In the conditions of a primitive society, even in the presence of polygamy (i.e., polygamy), the natural increase was insignificant, since the birth rate and mortality, being at a high level, mutually balanced.
The most noticeable changes in the number of inhabitants of the globe, which marked the transition to the second period of demographic development, have occurred over the past three and a half centuries. But even against their background, the growth rates in the 1960s were unprecedented. Then the concept of a population explosion arose - a sharp increase in population growth, there were gloomy forecasts of an imminent overpopulation of the planet.
The purpose of this work is to study the impact of the population explosion on international economic security.
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
Describe the essence of the population explosion;
Consider the threats to international economic security provoked by the population explosion.
The object of this work is a population explosion.
The subject of this work is the features of the impact of the population explosion on international economic security.
1. The concept and essence of the population explosion
The population explosion is a figurative designation of the rapid quantitative growth of the world population that began in the 1950s. From journalistic literature, the term "Population explosion" has passed into modern scientific research, including works that consider the concept of demographic transition. From the standpoint of this concept, a population explosion is a sharp acceleration in population growth due to the establishment of an intermediate type of reproduction of us. As a rule, during this period, the decrease in mortality significantly outstrips the decrease in the birth rate, which leads to an accelerated increase in the population, which may not be linked to the objective requirements of the socio-economic development of society.
The transition from the traditional to the modern type of population reproduction began at the end of the 18th century in a number of capitalist countries of Western Europe, gradually spread to other countries, and by the middle of the 20th century covered the whole world. AT different countries the demographic transition has its own characteristics, determined by the entire course of historical development, the economic, political, social and cultural restructuring of society on the path of industrial development, the socio-economic system under which this transition takes place in a particular country. Hence, in particular, the differences in the duration and power of the population explosion.
Three typical patterns of development of the modern demographic transition can be distinguished (see Fig. 1). The first (A) was typical for France, where the change in types (and corresponding regimes) of fertility and mortality went almost in parallel, due to which this country practically did not know a population explosion. This scheme is an exception to general rule, in most countries where the demographic transition unfolded in the 19th century, it proceeded according to scheme B. In Great Britain, for example, the decline in mortality began at the same time as in France (at the end of the 18th century), and the decline in fertility - 100 years later, as a result, during the 19th century, the population of the country increased by almost 26 million people, or 3.4 times (the population of France - by a little more than 40%); at the same time, at least 10 million people emigrated (emigration from France was insignificant).
Scheme B was typical of most European countries, in connection with which Western Europe as a whole experienced a population explosion in the 19th century. Its population almost doubled in a century (in the 18th century it increased by less than one and a half times) and, moreover, several tens of millions of people emigrated from the countries of Western Europe. The population explosion in Western Europe ended rather quickly - at the beginning of the 20th century. He left a noticeable mark in history, because he contributed to a significant increase in the population of this region and the settlement of the New World, but still had a limited, regional significance and could not have a significant impact on the growth rate of world population.
Figure 1 - Typical schemes for the development of the demographic transition and the population explosion: A - the absence of a population explosion (France); B - small population explosion (Sweden); B - big population explosion (Sri Lanka)
Since modern extremely high rates The growth of the world's population is decisively determined by the rate of its increase in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America (where about 70% of the world's population lives), the population explosion in these countries is turning into a global one.
The population explosion is a temporary phenomenon; as the demographic transition develops, the broken coherence of the types and regimes of fertility and mortality is restored, the intermediate type of population reproduction is replaced by the main one, and the population explosion stops.
However, the pace of the demographic transition depends on the general socio-economic development, and if it proceeds relatively slowly, as is the case in most of the liberated countries, the intermediate type of population reproduction also persists for a long time. Many developing countries are pursuing a demographic policy aimed at overcoming the transitional nature of population reproduction, in particular at an accelerated decline in the birth rate.
Forecasts of the development of the world population explosion proceed from the fact that the process of demographic stabilization will everywhere end up approaching the state characteristic of the stationary population. In different regions of the world, this will happen at different times (according to the passage of the final phases of the demographic transition by these regions), but in most developing countries, not earlier than the middle of the 21st century.
It is expected that, although some growth in the world population will continue into the 22nd century, the bulk of the upcoming increase will occur in the 1st half of the 21st century, by the middle of which 10-12 billion people will live on the globe. At the same time, the proportion of the population will change dramatically selected countries and regions in the entire population of the world, in particular, the share of the current economically developed countries (30% in 1970) will be reduced by about half, overseas Europe from 3rd place (after South and East Asia) will move to 5th, Africa from 4th to 2nd, ahead of East Asia.
2. Impact of the population explosion on international economic security
The demographic situation in modern world is of great variety. In general, the planet is experiencing a significant increase in population, which is called the "population explosion". So, in 1800, about 1 billion people lived on Earth; it took 130 years (in 1930) for the doubling of the human population from 1 to 2 billion, and for the subsequent doubling - only 45 years (4 billion people - in 1975). 21st century The number of people on our planet has reached 6 billion.
However, the "demographic explosion" in our time is not happening in the entire world community, but primarily in the countries of Asia, Africa and partly Latin America. For example, in India, 56,000 new residents are born every day, and, according to forecasts, by 2016, India will come out on top in terms of population in the world. Such a rapid increase in the population leads to an aggravation of social, economic, environmental and other problems (an increase in the number of illiterates, people living below the poverty line, etc.). Let us note the main problems that arise as a result of the population explosion and threaten international economic security.
The problem of lack of fresh water
The growth in fresh water consumption by the population on the planet is determined at 0.5-2% per year. At the beginning of the next century, the total water intake is expected to be 12-24 thousand km³. Water consumption is increasing due to the growth of wealth, this can be seen in the following example. Water consumption by one urban resident of the southern regions of Russia is: in a house without sewerage 75, in a house with sewerage 120, with a gas water heater 210 and with all amenities 275 l / day.
For a city in central Russia, the rate of water consumption according to the "Norms of Household and Drinking Consumption for Settlements" (SNiP-I.31-74) is: in houses without baths 125-160, with baths and heaters 160-230 and with centralized hot water supply 250-350 l / day.
Losses of fresh water increase with the growth of its consumption per capita and are associated with the use of water for household needs. Most often this is due to the imperfection of the technology of industrial, agricultural production and public services. Water losses from water-bearing communications in Russian cities are 30-50%. In cities of regional significance, water losses are approximately 10-15 million tons per year and double every 5 years. Large losses of fresh water occur during the development of mineral deposits, during construction drainage of urban areas.
Now there are armed conflicts because of the lack of fresh water. Also, the lack of fresh water can lead to manifestations of separatism and terrorism. An example is the incident that took place on March 26, 2008 on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. About 150 residents of the Tajik region of Isfara, led by the governor and accompanied by Tajik police, broke through the border into the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan and tried to destroy a dam built several years ago with financial assistance World Bank. Thus, they wanted to restore the former flow from Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan of the Aksai River, which is the main source of water for Isfara. The governor criticized the Kyrgyz authorities, saying they had no right to build a dam because the area is disputed.
In 2013, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland devoted seven of its meetings to the problem of water scarcity. One of the results was that the rich world should conserve water - it's time to end the snow cannons. But also developing countries must change their thinking. The problem of water scarcity cannot be solved by running one campaign after another. Instead, it was proposed to create an intermediary network designed to maximize the value of projects by coordinating them, striving to satisfy the needs of both people and industry. This problem is also raised in the UN. The General Assembly proclaimed 2005-2015 the International Decade for Action "Water for Life".
The problem of water shortage is also being solved in some regions. So in Israel, a project was adopted on the recycling of water from air conditioners. Representatives of the Water Corporation want to offer it to other cities in Israel. After all, using water from air conditioners for watering is really beneficial. Firstly, it is the saving of such a valuable resource in the country - water. Secondly, it will allow not to raise the price of drinking water, which is becoming more and more expensive to buy in other countries. Thirdly, in conditions of lack of water, this will help preserve the green spaces of the city for residents.
The problem of scarcity of food products
As a result of the population explosion, the problem of food shortages is most acute in many developing countries (according to UN statistics, a number of post-socialist states also belong to them). In particular, among the most needy countries, where the average per capita food consumption in terms of energy value is less than 2000 kcal per day and continues to decline, Mongolia is an example of this.
World agricultural production is constrained by limited land, both in developed and developing countries. This is due to the high level of urbanization, the need to preserve forest areas, and limited water resources. The problem of food shortages is most acute for the poorest countries, which are unable to allocate significant funds for food imports.
Reduction of agricultural land
The traditional rural landscape with its national characteristics is certainly the national cultural heritage of each country. With the reduction of the agricultural population, there is a threat of its loss. This problem is especially relevant for the countries of Western Europe, which for a long time tried to solve this problem by providing economic support to their own farmers. The particular relevance of agrarian protectionism is evidenced by the fact that throughout post-war history the problem of its elimination takes important place in a number of problems of international trade. This issue was central to the drafting of the Treaty of Rome, which launched the European Economic Union.
At present, almost all or almost all of the land suitable for cultivation is used. The plowing of new, less convenient areas can lead to an increase in the cost of agricultural products and to negative consequences for the environment, as has already happened in the zone of unstable agriculture, for example, in a number of countries in Africa. Although agricultural area is still increasing, this is happening at a slow pace, with the growth of arable land notably lagging behind the expansion of agricultural land. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the share of agricultural land over the past 30 years has increased from 33.13 to 35.71% of all land, and the share of arable land - from 10.41 to 11.03%, that is, by a fraction of a percent . The area of cultivated land for 1961-1990 increased from 1.3 billion hectares to 1.4 billion hectares. Practically there was a stabilization of the area of arable lands. population population explosion reproduction
According to the calculations of scientists from the World Program to Combat Hunger (Brown University, USA) R. Cates, R. Chen and others, the world crop of field products in the 80-90s of the XX century with a uniform distribution and without diverting them to feed livestock enough to feed a vegetarian diet for 6 billion people. With a diet where almost 15% of calories come from animal products (typical of South American countries), 4 billion people could be fed. With a diet in which animal products account for about 30% of calories consumed (mostly developed countries), only 2.6 billion people would be food secure.
The solution of the food problem is associated not only with an increase in food production, but also with the development of strategies for the rational use of food resources, which should be based on an understanding of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of human nutritional needs.
As a result of the implementation of measures aimed at weakening protectionism in the production of agricultural products, one can expect a strengthening of the positions in the world food market of those countries that have the most developed agriculture oriented to the needs of the external market (USA, EU, Canada, Australia, Argentina, etc.). ). At the same time, agricultural producers in countries that are net food importers, if they fail to adapt to new conditions, will suffer significant losses due to a reduction in subsidies for their production.
The problem of provision with fuel, raw materials and energy resources
Minerals are the raw material of any production process, so they have an impact on the economy and can cause serious shocks. The tension in the use of mineral resources is associated with the limited natural resources, the discrepancy between the distribution of mineral resources and the level of development of productive forces, in addition, the mining industry as a whole creates 10% of the world's GDP.
It is necessary to strengthen the mode of saving raw materials, reduce the material intensity of production, create reserve stocks of critical types of mineral raw materials, increase the use of secondary raw materials, and pursue a policy of strengthening self-sufficiency. France: more than 70% of electricity is generated by nuclear power plants. During the period of 70-80s. last century in industrial developed countries a powerful mining industry was created (Australia, Canada, South Africa, USA). 2 oil production areas were discovered: the North Sea and Alaska. Developed countries have taken a course to spread their influence. USA - Persian Gulf. The export of capital began Japan.
Developing countries are developing their own gas production industry, the policy of retaining part of the income from the export of raw materials. Interstate organizations of the producing countries of mineral raw materials were created in order to obtain a stable income. However, only OPEC has achieved significant results.
Thus, it should be stated that, according to researchers, the ever-increasing world population requires more and more food and energy, mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the planet's biosphere and leads to conflicts.
Conclusion
The growth of the world's population in the middle of the XX century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the population explosion. A population explosion is a sharp increase in the rate of growth of the Earth's population, associated with a change in the socio-economic or general environmental conditions of life.
At present, about 180 people are born on the planet every minute, 21 people are born every second and 19 people die. Thus, the population of the Earth is increasing by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. For the year, the increase is approximately 80 million, and almost all of it is in developing countries. In our time, the doubling of the number of people on the planet occurs in 35 years, and food production is growing at 2.3% per year and doubling in 30 years.
It should be noted that the problem of population is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The earth can feed more people. The problem lies in the uneven distribution of people on the surface of the planet.
The modern population explosion not only occurs in a large number of countries, directly covering a significant part of the world population, but, in essence, directly or indirectly affects the entire world community, transforming the local demographic problem to one of global problems modernity.
Bibliographic list
1. Vishnevsky A.G. World population explosion and its problems. - M.: Knowledge, 2010. - 244 p.
Vishnevsky A.G. Selected Demographic Works. In two volumes. T. I. Demographic theory and demographic history. - M.: Nauka, 2013. - 344 p.
Dolnik V.R. Are there biological mechanisms for regulating the number of people? // Nature. 2012. No. 6. - P.5.
Elizarova V.V., Dzarasova I.V. Demographics and social economic problems. - M.: MAKS Press, 2011. - 272 p.
Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people lived, lives and will live on Earth. - M.: Nauka, 2010. - 290s.
Kovalev E.N. global food problem. // World economy and international relationships. 2004. No. 10 - S.26-34.
Korotaev A.V., Malkov A.S., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World-System. Demography, economy, culture. - M.: URSS, 2011. - 276 p.
Stadnitsky G.V., Rodionov A.I. Ecology. - St. Petersburg: Chemistry, 2011. - 240 p.
In this article, we will explain what a population explosion is and what causes it to occur. A population explosion is a sharp increase in the number of inhabitants. It consists in the excess of the birth rate over the death rate. This definition appeared in the second half of the 20th century, since the problem of the population explosion was acutely manifested precisely during this period.
Until the end of the 17th century, there were no changes in the demographic situation on the planet. This period is characterized by the fact that the vast majority of people lived in countryside. People then did not use contraception, and some nations practiced polygamy. Even though the birth rate is high and a large number of large families, the increase in the number of such a society was not characteristic, which is responsible for the high child and adult mortality. Often, children did not have time to become adults, and adults died en masse from terrible epidemics, famine, as well as numerous and cruel military conflicts.
In the Middle Ages, death mowed down entire cities. Wars practically did not stop, and many diseases were considered incurable. A plague epidemic that broke out in the 14th century claimed the lives of half the population of Europe. Germany, France and other countries were hit hard.
Plague in Europe in the 14th century
Then life was harsher, and medicine was at a low level of development. The reason for the population explosion was that over time people learned to deal with most diseases and life expectancy increased. With the previous birth rate or its slight decrease, a significant increase in population began. In the 20th century, it rapidly increased and became a phenomenon that caused a population explosion.
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Causes and consequences of population growth
Now, when the world population has exceeded 7 billion people, it is difficult to imagine what it was like 3,000 years ago. But in 1000 BC, it was only 50 million. After about 2.5 thousand years, the number of people on the planet increased tenfold and reached 500 million.
Especially the population explosion is typical for the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
In African countries, the most high level birth rate: in Niger, one woman on average gives birth to 8 (!) Children Since then, the rate of population growth has only increased. In the 20th century, the acceleration reached unprecedented proportions. For example, from 1987 to 1999, the world's population grew from 5 to 6 billion, that is, by 1 billion in 12 years.
The population explosion is typical primarily for developing countries with a low level of economy. The main number of newborns appeared there. 60% of the new inhabitants of our planet were born in Asia.
It is believed that the population explosion is now over. Population growth continues, but its pace has slowed down significantly. Oddly enough, this was mainly due to rising wealth. Young people get higher education, arrange a career, and only then create families. At the same time, they are not in a hurry to have children.
Another negative factor was the popularization of same-sex sexual relations up to marriage. And the appearance of children in such marriages is impossible. The growth of alcoholism and drug addiction, as well as the poor environmental situation, also do not contribute to the increase in the birth rate.
But all this is offset by low mortality. After all, thanks to comfortable living conditions and the achievements of medicine, life expectancy has increased, and mortality from diseases in all age categories has decreased.
A noticeable decrease in the birth rate with low mortality is called the demographic transition from a traditional society, characterized by a high birth rate and significant mortality, to a modern one. AT modern society there are other features of reproduction, when the change of generations occurs without a noticeable increase in the population.
Demographic features of different regions of the planet
The demographic picture of the world is very diverse and diverse. The dynamics of population change in different countries is fundamentally different. Along with the rapid growth of the number of inhabitants at one end of the planet, there are countries with low population growth.
The danger lies in the consequences of a population explosion in developing countries, accompanied by a low level of economic development. This phenomenon leads to falling living standards, unemployment and poverty. A minority of the world's inhabitants, 1 billion, live in prosperous countries and have an abundance of material wealth. This "golden billion" includes citizens of the United States and Canada, as well as residents of Western Europe and Japan.
To avoid global problems, they have to help their poor neighbors on the planet. Large and rich countries in the struggle for resources and spheres of influence, intentionally or unwittingly, have caused many local conflicts in less successful and influential countries.
The population explosion and its consequences affected the developed countries as well. This was fully felt by the inhabitants of Western Europe, where millions of migrants from Africa and the Middle East poured in en masse. They are fleeing war, poverty or persecution, and many are simply in search of a better life. Europeans are powerless to stop this flow. This situation suggests that local problems can quickly and easily develop into global ones.
Migrants from Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia, Bangladesh, Palestine, and also from North Africa go to Europe for a better life It is impossible to say which country is characterized by a population explosion, and which is not. AT different periods The history of the country experienced an increase or decrease in population. It all depends on the conditions prevailing at the moment. The causes of the population explosion can be different. Many countries have seen a surge in fertility after difficult, and sometimes tragic, periods of history.
To understand what are the reasons for the sharp changes in the demographic situation, we will give examples from the history of some countries.
Causes and consequences of the US population explosion
In the United States, between the 1930s and 1940s, there was an unprecedented economic and population boom, unprecedented in the history of the country. Four or more children in the families of ordinary Americans has become the norm. Previously, during the Great Depression, when businesses closed, and unemployment and crime rose to unprecedented levels, many were in no hurry to start families and have children, because they were not sure of the future.
When unemployment and the crisis were overcome, a certain stability appeared in the life of Americans. For other world powers, the Second World War brought grief, destruction and death to millions of people. AT economic development she threw them far back. These tragic events did not have a negative impact on the United States. Military operations did not affect American territory, and the losses are incomparable, for example, with the irreplaceable human losses of the USSR or Germany. America did not face the problems that were in abundance in the countries of Europe.
Military production for the needs of the US Army and its allies brought huge profits, provided well-paid jobs for millions of Americans. Many businessmen made fortunes in military supplies. This contributed to the well-being of Americans, made the United States the most powerful world power, and also had a positive effect on the demographic situation in the country.
We can say that in this country the population explosion is characteristic primarily for periods of calm and prosperity. But some events may affect demographic situation in an unpredictable way. You can hardly explain why, after the largest terrorist attack in history on September 11, 2001, there was a surge in the birth rate in the United States. This seems completely illogical.
The growth in the number of Americans has not slowed down and continues to the present. To some extent, it is due to the excess of births over deaths, and partly due to the influx of foreign migrants.
Population explosion in Russia
Thanks to the Second World War, the United States became the first economy on the planet, while in Russia the situation is reversed. After the war, the European part of the Soviet Union lay in ruins and required restoration. The country has lost tens of millions of people, most of whom are healthy men of military age. They could very well start families and have children.
post-war Moscow. Construction of house number 11 on Gorky Street Returning from the war, former soldiers took up the restoration of industry and Agriculture, built residential buildings. Many of them, who went to the front right after school, got families and children. The restoration of peaceful life also contributed to an increase in the birth rate, especially in rural areas, where large families with many children were not uncommon.
The country needed a population explosion more than ever. Even with a stable positive dynamics of population growth, it was possible to reach the pre-war population only by 1979.
Growth stopped after the collapse of the USSR. This period of stagnation continued for more than 20 years. Many attribute this to the difficult economic situation, the decline in incomes of the population and the lack of confidence in the future.
A few years ago, a small increase in population began in Russia. To some extent, this is due to the protectionist measures of the state, contributing to an increase in the population.
Maternal (family) capital - measure state support Russian families in which from 2007 to 2018 (inclusive) a second child was born (was adopted) Experts argue that Russia should not be afraid that the consequences of the population explosion will be negative. Even if for some reason it happens, the vast territory and rich resources are insurance against overpopulation.
In Russia, a population explosion would just be desirable, because despite a thousand-year history, the country still has underdeveloped territories. The declining population could be a much bigger problem. This problem exists in some regions. One way to solve it is to provide incentives for those wishing to move to such disadvantaged regions from other parts of the country and from abroad.
Demographic Crisis and Demographic Policy
When studying demography, one should also know the concepts of demographic crisis and population policy.
For different countries, the concept of a demographic crisis can have diametrically opposed meanings. If in Nigeria high population growth amid a lack of food and other resources is a concern, then for Western European countries the problem of a decrease in the number of inhabitants and the aging of nations due to a reduced birth rate in combination with an increase in life expectancy is more typical.
Depending on the problems that caused the demographic crisis, there are different ways to solve these issues. The demographic policy of the state indirectly affects the dynamics of changes in population growth.
For example, in China, the slogan "One family - one child" has become popular, aimed at combating the population explosion. The state regulated the birth rate, taxing large families with additional taxes and encouraging those who limited themselves to one child.
Another example is Nazi Germany, where large families and the birth of children out of wedlock were encouraged. After all, the Reich constantly needed fresh "cannon fodder" to capture other countries, as well as colonists to populate the occupied territories.
Regardless of the differences in demographic policy in different countries, the situation is necessarily controlled at the state level. Around the world, there are activities aimed at increasing or decreasing the population.
Still consider the problem of overpopulation of the planet. Why her? Yes, because it was overpopulation that became the prerequisite for the emergence of all the remaining problems. Many argue that the earth is able to feed ten billion people. But with all this, each of us breathes and almost everyone has a personal car, and they are increasing every year. Outcome of air pollution. The number of cities is increasing, there is a need to destroy more forests, expanding the areas of human settlement. So who will clean the air for us then? Therefore, the Earth may and will survive, but humanity is unlikely.
Dynamics of population growth
The population is growing rapidly, according to scientists, literally forty thousand years ago, there were about a million people, in the twentieth century there were already one and a half billion of us, by the middle of the last century the number had reached three billion, and now this number is about seven billion.
The increase in the number of inhabitants of the planet leads to the emergence of environmental problems, due to the fact that each person needs a certain amount of natural resources to live. Moreover, the birth rate is higher just in underdeveloped countries, in such countries the majority are either poor or starving.
Baby boom solution
The solution to this problem is possible only in one way by reducing the number of births and improving the quality of the living conditions of the population. But how to force people not to give birth, when obstacles may arise in the form: religion does not allow, large families are encouraged in the family, society is against restrictions. The presence of large families is beneficial for the ruling circles of underdeveloped countries, since illiteracy and ignorance flourish there and, accordingly, they are easier to manage.
What is the danger of overpopulation by the threat of famine in the future. Due to the fact that the population is growing rapidly, and agriculture is not developing so rapidly. Industrialists are trying to speed up the ripening process by adding pesticides and carcinogens that are dangerous to human health. What causes another problem is low-quality food. In addition, there is a shortage of clean water and fertile land.
To reduce the birth rate, the most effective methods are needed, which are used in China, where the largest population is. The fight against growth there is carried out as follows:
- Constant propaganda about the normalization of the country's population.
- Availability and low prices contraceptives.
- Free medical care when performing abortions.
- Tax on the birth of the second and subsequent child, after the birth of the fourth forced sterilization. The last item was canceled about ten years ago.
Including in India, Pakistan and Indonesia, a similar policy is being pursued, although not so successfully.
Thus, if we take the entire population, it turns out that three-quarters are in underdeveloped countries, which consume only one third of all natural resources. If we imagine our planet as a village with a population of one hundred people, we will see a real picture of what is happening: 21 Europeans, 14 Africans, 57 Asians and 8 Americans will live there. Only six Americans would have wealth, seventy would not be able to read, fifty would starve, eighty would live in dilapidated housing, and only one would have a higher education.
Therefore, in order to reduce the birth rate, it is necessary to provide the population with housing, free education and good medical care, and there is a need for jobs.
Not so long ago, it was believed that some social, cultural, economic problems had to be solved, and that's all, the whole world would live in prosperity. But in fact, it turned out that with a constant increase in numbers, resources are depleted and there is a real danger of an ecological disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to create joint approaches to regulate the number of people on the planet.
Demographic history of mankind
The increase in the population, along with the development of industry, is the main factor in the degradation of the biosphere.
In some parts of Asia, the problem of overpopulation has existed for several centuries, but a sharp increase in the population of the Earth is a specific feature of our era, which is very aptly called the era of the population explosion of the 20th century.
It is possible that in its consequences it surpasses such scientific discoveries as nuclear energy and cybernetics.
According to experts in global demography, in 1971 the world's population was 3,706 million people, and population growth reached 2.1% per year.
The problem of overpopulation of the biosphere will become very obvious if we recall that even now in most countries there are on average more than 26 people per square kilometer (excluding deserts and polar zones).
The destructive impact of numerous scientific and technological advances, combined with the overexploitation of land suitable for agricultural production, is incompatible with the preservation of natural ecosystems, and even those that were created or modified by man in ancient times.
In absolute terms, the demographic pressure of mankind on the biosphere is excessive, but the most alarming is the fact that it is increasing at an exponential rate. None of the experts can say now whether the population of the Earth is stabilizing, and if it is stabilizing, then at what level! So, Dorst (Dorst, 1965) noted that the population explosion of the 20th century. comparable in scope to the great geological catastrophes that shook the surface of the planet.
Despite the paucity of historical documents before 1650, we know the main features of the demographic history of mankind. Various paleontological and archaeological data have made it possible to obtain fairly accurate estimates of the population of the Earth even for the distant Paleolithic.
If we assume that the first representatives of the genus Homo appeared about 1,700,000 years ago, then we can calculate that from 60 to 100 billion people have lived on our planet since then. In this case, the population of the Earth is currently only 5% of the number of people who lived on the planet.
Australopithecus, then the first paleanthropes appeared in Africa 1 million years ago, and their number did not exceed 125,000 individuals.
In the Middle and Lower Paleolithic, the population increased slowly, and the tribes gradually occupied the entire Old World. One hundred thousand years ago, the population of the Earth reached the first million people.
The New World was settled during the Upper Paleolithic. At the end of this period (i.e., 10,000 years ago), at the dawn of the Neolithic, the population of the Earth approached 5 million people.
The birth of the first settled agricultural society, which is characteristic of this time, was accompanied by a sharp increase in the population, which reached 150 million people by the time the Roman Empire was formed.
Since the beginning of our era, population growth has continued: in 1650, the number of inhabitants of the planet has already reached 545 million people. Although the upward trend in population continued during this time, there were significant fluctuations. Various factors influenced the mortality of people, with the sinister trio playing the main role: war, famine and epidemics. Politics gave rise to wars and conflicts, which led to catastrophes, but there were other causes of hunger and disease: the increased population density both in the West and in China and India, the backwardness of agricultural production and the great migration of peoples, which contributed to the spread of epidemics, especially since the era of the great geographical discoveries.
old light
Starting from the XVIII century. there is a strong demographic growth. It is mainly the result of the introduction of new crops (such as potatoes) and the use of techniques that have increased the efficiency of agriculture. True, wars and famine continued to rage. The Pasteur era did not yet put an end to epidemics, as evidenced by the magnitude of the last cholera epidemic. And it is hardly necessary to recall the 50 million dead during the Second World War, the numerous crop failures that have affected developing countries since 1945, in particular Biafra and Pakistan. Neither famine, nor other disasters that befell Europe in the first half of the second millennium, nor the facts cited above, affected the population during the period under review. According to Walford (1978), there were at least 200 famines in Great Britain during our era, with the last one in 1846! In China in 2019, there are 1828 of them, and many of the famine periods claimed more than one million human lives. In India, the first famine of which information has come down to us raged in 1769-1770. and ended the lives of 3 million people.
In the second millennium, epidemics also destroyed the population of the Earth. In Europe, the great plague of the 14th century, which raged in an endemic form for more than 50 years, struck in 1348-1350. 22 million people. In two years, the population of the continent decreased by 25%! At the same time, numerous epidemics of bubonic plague nearly halved the population of Great Britain; from 1348 to 1379 it decreased from 3.2 million to 2.1 million (Langer, 1964). The population of Europe, numbering 85 million by the beginning of the epidemic, by the end of the 14th century. did not exceed 60 million people.
If other peoples of the Old World paid heavy tribute to various epidemic diseases (plague, cholera, typhus, smallpox, etc.), then in Europe in the new era the population suffered most from wars. Since the invasions of the barbarians (375-568), which turned the Roman Empire into ruins, not a single century has been without terrible disasters generated by military conflicts. In particular, the Centenary (1337-1453) and Thirty Years (1618-1648). ) wars were accompanied by the massacre of the civilian population (genocide), the scope of which was limited only by the lack of means of extermination at the disposal of the warring parties. The Thirty Years' War resulted in the death of a third of the population of Germany and the Czech Republic; more than 20,000 inhabitants died only during the siege of the city of Magdeburg: they were destroyed by Catholics, regardless of gender and age.
Starting from the XVIII century. demographic growth is becoming more stable and intense, especially in Europe. If the increase in the population of Europe can still be explained by the progress of agriculture and significant immigration, it is much more difficult to explain the population growth observed in India and China during the same period. In 1800 the world's population numbered 906 million people, and in 1840 the population reached the first billion.
With the onset of the Pasteur era, which excluded big number factors of mass mortality, the population of the planet began to grow at an even faster pace. Already in 1930 it reached 2 billion, in 1962 - 3 billion, and in 1971 - 3.706 billion people.
If we plot population growth as a function of time, we get a curve that resembles the shape of the letter J, the vertical part of which approximately coincides with the beginning of ours. The shape of this curve shows how well the term "population explosion" is chosen.
Humanity, which appeared about 600,000 years ago, took 500,000 years to grow from a few hundred thousand to a billion. But it turned out that only 50 years (from 1920 to 1970) were enough for the Earth's population to double: from 1.8 to 3.6 billion people.
Other an important factor is that not only the population is constantly increasing, but, more importantly, the rate of their growth.
If we take into account the demographic growth observed in 1969-1971, then we can assume that in our time the doubling of the population will occur in 32-35 years.
The acceleration of population growth is also evidenced by the reduction in the time required to increase the world's population by 1 billion people.
In addition, as the American demographer Vogt noted several years ago, the population of the planet is increasing faster than the heart of a human being beats. Indeed, the heart makes 38 million beats a year; at the same time, the population increases by 50 million people - every month the number of inhabitants of the Earth increases by an amount equal to the population of a city like Chicago (4.5 million inhabitants). India's annual population growth is equal to the total population of Australia. In India, the annual growth rate is 2.6%, doubling the population in 27 years. Thus, the population of the Indian region will reach, if there is no catastrophe, the first billion already in 1993.
If we now turn to the distribution of the population around the globe, we can see that from the point of view of a demographer, the Earth can be divided into five large zones:
1 Europe - high density, low growth;
2 Siberia and North America - low density, low growth;
3 Central and tropical America, Africa, Near and Middle East - low density, fast growth;
4 India, China, Southeast Asia - high density, fast growth;
5 Oceania, South America (in temperate latitudes) - low density, weak growth.
The record for overpopulation undoubtedly belongs to Egypt, where 35 million people (according to the 1971 census) live on an area of 35,000 km 2 - only in the livable Nile Valley (the rest of Egypt is an uninhabited desert). This corresponds to a real population density of 1000 inhabitants per 1 km2.
The Netherlands, Japan, Indonesia, Bangladesh are countries with a very high population density (each of them has a density of over 300 inhabitants per 1 km 2). In some areas of the Ganges delta, covered with uninhabited and impenetrable jungle 100 years ago, there are currently more than 600 inhabitants per 1 km 2.
It is important to note that high-density areas now exist not only in Europe and East Asia, but also in Africa. Thus, in Rwanda, the population density exceeds 130 inhabitants per 1 km2.
Three hypothetical estimates of the change in the world's population up to the end of the 20th century have been proposed. The average predicted the most probable development of the world's population, based on the experience of the 60s. The smallest and largest estimates corresponding to the upper and lower bounds can be interpreted as possible errors that occurred during the calculation. However, a fourth estimate was made (very overestimated): it was based on the preservation of the birth rate observed in the 1950s, and took into account the emerging trend towards a decrease in mortality.
Unfortunately, these predictions turned out to be wrong: the latest figures from 1971 show that even inflated estimates need to be urgently revised, as the world's population has increased to 3.706 billion people, which is slightly higher than even the UN's high estimate. Based on the 1971 data, we can conclude that by the year 2000 the world's population will increase not to 7 billion, as experts estimated, but to 8 billion people.
In fact, all demographers' assessments made after the Second World War turned out to be erroneous. Ehrlich (1970) notes that in The Times of November 8, 1948, the opinion of experts was given, according to which the population of our planet in 1960 will be 2.250 billion people, and this is "most likely a grossly overestimated estimate." In fact, in 1960 the population of the Earth reached 3 billion people. Other assessments made various economists and demographers in 1950, predicted an increase in the population to 3.5 billion people in 1990. We know that this figure was already exceeded in 1970 (3.660 billion people).
The main demographic data on the world's population as of 1971 and the estimate for 1985 fully confirms Ehrlich's opinion about the underestimated estimates of UN experts in 1963.
According to these data, the demographic gap between industrialized and developing countries will widen in the coming years. By the year 2000, the countries of Africa and Latin America will triple their population, while the population of Europe will stabilize.
While the annual population growth in Europe is 0.8% (doubling time 88 years), in the USSR -1% (70 years) and the USA - 1.2% (63 years), in developing countries it is more than 2%: in Africa, 2.7% (doubling time 26 years), Latin America- 2.9% (24 years). The record belongs to Costa Rica, where the annual growth reached 3.8% (19 years), followed by Mexico - 3.4% (21 years).
In Asian countries, population growth has become somewhat less (average annual growth of 2.3%), mainly due to China (1.8%), which recently began to implement a policy of reducing the birth rate: every family with three or more children is taxed here.
A different picture is observed in India (doubling time 27 years), Malaysia (23 years) and Pakistan (21 years).
Along with the ever-accelerating population growth, there is a trend towards intensive urbanization. Tokyo, which had a population of 16 million in 1970, will have 40 million inhabitants in 2000. Kolkata, where today poverty and chronic epidemics reign, will have 50 million inhabitants in 2000 (instead of 8 million in 1974), if the current growth rate continues. According to UN experts, in 1984, half of the world's population will live in cities, and in 2000, almost the entire population of the world.
In 2000, half of humanity will live in cities with more than 1 million inhabitants. According to the same projections, if we extrapolate the emerging trend, it turns out that the largest "city" of the globe will have 1.4 billion inhabitants in 2044!
Some contemporary ecologists see this demographic evolution as a confirmation of Malthus's ideas. In 1798, Malthus, in his Inquiry into the Principle of Population, argued that an unlimited increase in population would gradually lead to catastrophic famine, since "the possibilities for increasing the population of the planet are incomparably greater than the possibilities of the Earth to produce food for man."1 Malthus argued that the number population increases exponentially, while food resources can only increase linearly due to the limited area of land suitable for agriculture.
Many modern authors see the dramatic reduction in the doubling of the population and the sore problem of food shortages in developing countries as confirmation of the pessimistic predictions of Malthus. So, for example, Ehrlich suggests that modern demographic growth cannot continue for as long as the UN experts predicted. He considers it unlikely that the world's population will reach even 10 billion people. According to Ehrlich, "a catastrophic increase in mortality will slow down or put an end to the population explosion" .
But these statements do not convince everyone. If we exclude the possibility of a third world war, we do not believe that the limiting factors cited by Ehrlich will manifest themselves in the coming decades. In particular, reaching the upper limit of the world's population seems unlikely before early XXI in. due to lack of food - the prophecy of Malthus - or other similar disasters. Based on the latest data from physiologists about the human species, the possibility of endocrine disorders leading to death or negatively affecting fertility, which is observed in populations of rodents at very high density, is unlikely.
Dubos wrote (Dubos, 1971): “Man is not on the road to extinction, he can adapt to environmental conditions, but this adaptation will be the beginning of a real tragedy. In the process of adaptation, we will adapt to deteriorating conditions, not realizing that a child born in such conditions does not have the opportunity to fully develop his physical and mental abilities. It is necessary to deal with this problem, not only because we are threatened with extinction, but because if we are not aware of the impact that the environment has on our body, then something worse than the extinction of the human race can happen - progressive degradation the very essence of life."
How can you not be afraid of what will happen! A few decades later Earth will turn into a gigantic industrial-pavilion suburb, a kind of colossal "bidonville". If we take into account the population explosion, the growth of garbage and the destruction of forests, then the death of nature may seem inevitable. However, man himself has an even more intense impact on the biosphere. Today it has reached such proportions that some compare our time to a new geological age, which could be called for laughs the "upper dustbin": automobile cemeteries, wild dumps in suburban forests, mountains of waste, plastic bottles and other remnants of "society consumption” predetermine the living conditions of the future generation.
Demoecological study of overpopulation problems. Elementary concepts of population dynamics.
A population can be defined as a group of organisms of the same species that occupy a certain area and have special features that can be statistically processed. These traits—density, fertility, mortality, biotic potential, dispersal, and growth curve—are characteristic of a group, and not of a single individual.
In each ecosystem there is a sum of external and internal environmental factors, under the influence of which the abundance of each species is set at some average level, corresponding to the suitability and possibilities of the environment.
If a population is placed in a stable environment, from which all limiting factors are artificially removed, then the size of this population will increase indefinitely according to an exponential law as a function of time.
Demoecological factors that determine population growth act on two opposite parameters: the birth rate b and the death rate m. If migration (negligible in humans) is not taken into account, then the natural increase in the population will characterize the indicator r-b-m.
Theory and experience teach us that if you put a population of animals or plants in an environment with unlimited possibilities (for example, yeast in a nutrient solution or insects in an environment rich in food), then their number increases exponentially.
We face a similar phenomenon in all developing countries; in Mexico, where the population growth in 1970 was 3.4% (in Sri Lanka 2.4%), mortality fell from 30% to 10% over 30 years, while the birth rate during this time did not change, remaining within 45%.
A large part of the population in the countries with a population explosion, which is in the pre-reproductive period, carries with it the potential for population growth. Indeed, the number of the age group of the reproductive period will increase, which in turn will entail an increase in the number of the pre-reproductive group, etc.
This means that even if a plan to effectively control the birth rate on a planetary scale is immediately launched, it will take a good 30 years before a noticeable decrease in growth is found.
Thus, we can conclude that, with the exception of European countries, the United States and the Soviet Union, the demographic situation has not changed for the better for the world's population as a whole: the decrease in mortality was not accompanied by the same decrease in the birth rate.
All developing countries today adhere to demographic laws suitable for any living creature; in the absence of voluntary birth control, the populations of these countries evolve over time, following the J curve (biotic potential for humans).
