Subjects of the Russian Federation with the lowest natural increase. Demographic situation in Russia

The population of the Earth has reached its critical level. At present, 7.5 billion people live on our relatively small planet, and every second there is new life. However, such a huge population is unevenly distributed on the planet. Some countries have significantly higher birth rates than others. This is influenced primarily by factors such as genetics and the environment. Take, for example, all the countries of the African continent: these countries have a higher birth rate, therefore, more and more babies are born every year. At the same time, people inhabiting Europe or North America, for example, are not carriers of the genes responsible for the appearance a large number descendants, and as a result, these territories are not so densely populated. Today we will talk about the top ten countries that have the highest birth rate in the world. Needless to say, all of them (with the exception of one) are located in Africa. These data were obtained thanks to last census population. Statistically, the birth rate is classified for a thousand people. According to these data, the following countries are in the top ten with the largest number of children born annually.

10. Afghanistan

The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is located in southeast Asia. This populous state is estimated to have reached a birth rate of 38 per 1,000 population. There are currently 32 million people living in Afghanistan, but this number is expected to increase every year. The population is growing at a rate of 2.32% per year.

9. Angola

Angola is a South African state, the seventh largest in Africa. According to the latest data, the population of Angola is 24.3 million. This is one of the largest states in Africa with a significant birth rate, which is approximately 39 newborns per 1000 population. Given limited resources, such a rising birth rate could pose a threat to the country's economy.

8. Somalia

This African state is located in the Horn of Africa, and its population is more than 10.8 million people. The country is in eighth place due to the birth rate, which is 40 babies per 1,000 population. Although this part of the region has a fairly high birth rate, Somalia has a higher birth rate than most countries. Every year the natural population growth increases by 3%. Somalia is the sixth largest country with the most high level fertility in the world.

7. Malawi

This country on the African continent, like many others, boasts a high birth rate. According to the latest data, 17,377,468 people live in the country. The birth rate in recent years is almost 42 babies per thousand population. Malawi is often referred to as the "warm heart of Africa" ​​because of its hospitable population. The population of the country is completely dependent on agriculture, however, apparently, it is not developed enough to satisfy the growing demands of the population, which is constantly increasing.

6 Burundi

It is the second largest and one of the most populous states in Africa. Burundi is distinguished not only by rich fertile soils and developing agriculture, but also has higher birth rates than most other countries. According to the latest data, more than 42 babies are born here per thousand of the population, which brought the total population to 10.3 million. Due to a lack of resources, the population in Burundi suffers from many diseases, especially AIDS, so the average population growth is comparatively less, despite a higher birth rate.

5. Burkina Faso

As you can see, this is another African country that is in the top ten with the highest birth rate. It is located in the western part of Africa and occupies a significant territory. The country is surrounded by six of Africa's most important states and has a total population of 18.3 million. The birth rate here is slightly lower than in Burundi: 41 children per 1,000 population. However, here natural resources enough to meet the needs of a growing population.

4. Zambia

Zambia is not as densely populated as most African countries, but has a high birth rate compared to the area it covers. Zambia is the 70th most populous country in the world. Its population is 15.2 million. Statistics show that the annual growth rate is about 3.3%, and the birth rate is 42 people per 1000 population. Despite the high birth rate, the country can cope with the needs of the population, because it has a large area and, as a result, more resources.

3. Uganda

Like many other countries in Africa, Uganda is a densely populated and fertile country. Given the very high growth rate, it is not surprising that this is the third largest country with the highest birth rate, not only in Africa, but throughout the world. The total population of Uganda is 39,234,256 and the birth rate is about 44 children per thousand people. The standard of living is quite low, as the government is unable to meet the needs of the entire population.

2. Mali

This country is located on the edge of the Sahara Desert in western Africa. The Republic of Mali is one of the densely populated regions of Africa. With a birth rate of 45 babies per thousand people, Mali's population has now reached 15,786,227. Most of them live in countryside. Thus, most people are unable to achieve high standards of living.

1. Niger

This country is located on the banks of the Niger River and is named after her. It is located in western Africa and covers vast territories. The birth rate here is very high and reaches 46 people per 1000 population. High fertility rates and fertility rates are the main obstacles to achieving large economic success countries, as they make it difficult to generate income in accordance with needs.

The dynamics of the population of the regions depends on two factors: natural growth and population migration. It is clear that to show exactly how much the population has arrived or lost according to these parameters in each region over a long period is a little feasible task, because. Rosstat has been publishing such data only since 2008. Therefore, we restrict ourselves to only a few points.

First, the article shows the change in the population of the regions from 1990 to 2015. Reference also shows the change in the population by region in the period 1970-1990.

Then, the change in the population of the regions as a whole and by components in 2015 was noted: natural and migration increase, coefficients by components per 1000 people. population.

The material also shows for reference the natural increase in the regions of the RSFSR (including Crimea) in 1990.

Sources:

Russian statistical yearbook of different years of publication;

Bulletin of Rosstat “Population and migration Russian Federation».

Data on the population of Crimea and Sevastopol for 1970 and 1990 are taken from Wikipedia (with links to Ukrainian statistical resources).

Pictures and tables are clickable.

The color symbols in table 1 and in figures 1 and 2 reflect the change in the population for the specified period by:

Table 1 - Change in the population of Russian regions in 1970-2016, thousand people (including Crimea).

Figure 1 - Change in the population of Russian regions (RSFSR, including Crimea) in 1970-1990, %

From 1970 to 1990, the population of most regions of the RSFSR, including Crimea, grew steadily. The largest increase in the population Western Siberia, regions of the Far North, Far East, Crimea, Caucasian Republics, Moscow and Leningrad. The population of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug has grown 4 times, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - more than 5 times.

A slight decrease in the population was noted from 1970 to 1990. in 13 regions of the European part of the country. The largest decrease was recorded in the Tambov region - by 13%.

In the next period (1990-2016), the picture changes dramatically.

Figure 2 - Change in the population of Russian regions (including Crimea) in 1990-2016, %

Population decline is noted in 60 regions. The Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and the Magadan Region were depopulated most severely (by 3 times). The population of Kamchatka, Sakhalin and Murmansk regions, the Komi Republic has decreased by a third.

The population increased only in 24 regions (out of 84). Most of all - in Dagestan, Moscow and KhMAO.

Table 2 - Change in the population in the regions in 2015 by components, thousand people (including international migration).

Regions are ranked by overall population change.

Table 3 - Coefficients of population change in the regions by components in 2015, per 1000 people (including international migration).

Figure 3 - Total growth (population decline) in 2015 by regions, thousand people

Figure 4 - Total growth (population decline) in 2015 by regions, per 1000 people population.

The leaders of absolute population growth among regions in 2015: Moscow, Moscow Region and Krasnodar Territory. Each of these regions increased the population by more than 50 thousand people. And in all these regions, the growth is provided mainly (more than 80%) by migration flows.

In terms of per 1,000 people, the largest population growth was recorded in Sevastopol (almost entirely due to visitors). In the list of "outsiders": Jewish Autonomous, Magadan and Tambov regions, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Now a few words and images regarding the natural increase in the regions.

Figure 5 - Natural increase (population decline) in 2015 by regions, per 1000 population.

Figure 6 - Natural increase (population decline) in 1990 by region, per 1000 population.

There has been a significant deterioration in natural growth rates since 1990. The increase is observed only in five regions: Chechnya, Krasnodar Territory, Moscow, Moscow Region and St. Petersburg. In 1990, natural increase was recorded in 62 regions (out of 84 presented in the tables), in 2015 - in 41.

Both in 1990 and in 2015, the leaders of natural growth are the national republics: Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan and Tyva. In 1990, the list of natural growth leaders among the regions (more than 12 per 1000 people) also included Yakutia, YNAO and KhMAO. But by 2015, growth in these regions was below 12 per 1,000 people.

Migration growth in the regions

Figure 7 - Migration growth (population decline) in 2015 by regions, people.

Figure 8 - Migration growth (population decline) in 2015 by region, per 1000 population.

The largest share of immigrants per 1,000 people was accepted in 2015: Sevastopol, Tyumen region (without districts) and Moscow region.

The migration of the population from the regions of the Far East and almost all regions of the Far North is very large. Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which were previously attractive for migrants, now have a negative migration gain. YNAO is generally the first among the regions in terms of negative migration growth per 1,000 people.

In the Russian Federation, according to Federal Service state statistics, for three years starting from 2013 inclusive, natural population growth was recorded annually. In 2015, the natural increase in the population of Russia for 1 year amounted to +32038 people. As of January 1, 2017, the population of the Russian Federation reached 146.84 million people.

The question of a breakthrough in demography is turning into the most important one for the Russian Federation today, and the increase, protection and saving human capital become top priorities public policy Russia for the entire 21st century and a matter of national security.

Living in the largest country in the world in terms of territory, Russians make up only 2% of the entire population of the Earth. While the inhabitants of, for example, China account for 19%, India - 18%, and the United States - 4% of total population planets.

To attract the attention of federal and regional authorities, as well as civil society as a whole, to the problem of preserving high-quality human capital and a stable increase in the population of the country, the Federal Project "Sober Russia" and the Expert and Analytical Center at the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation conducted a unique joint comparative study, which resulted in the first "National birth rate rating in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation-2017".

"Birth rate rating-2017" was prepared in order to present it to the society, state authorities and bodies local government an objective picture of both the birth rate and the level of "social comfort" for population growth in different regions of the Russian Federation.

The objective of the Fertility Rating-2017 is to stimulate the federal and regional authorities to better and targeted work to strengthen and improve human capital, as well as to replicate positive regional experience within the framework of the federal state demographic policy.

"Birth rate rating score" in a specific subject of the Russian Federation is a score that was assigned to a region based on the results of an analysis of five criteria: "birth rate", "population growth", "number of children per 1 woman", "number of induced abortions", as well as “social comfort level for fertility”.

The final score of the region determined the position of the subject of the Russian Federation in the National Birth Rate 2017. The higher the score, the more prosperous the region and the higher the place it occupies.

The regions were ranked from the most prosperous (1st place) to the most problematic (85th place). "Birth Rating Score" ranges from 24.33 to 41.95).

The “Birth Rate Score” is a kind of social index that the authors of the rating propose to use in the formation of regional strategies for strengthening demography and increasing the regional level of social comfort for the birth rate.

Counting order

The natural values ​​of each indicator were converted into standardized form- a scale of "stans" with a value from 1 to 10. At the same time, the scales were inverted in such a way that, according to any criterion, "1" means "very bad", and "10" means "very good". For example, according to the indicator “alcoholization”, the higher the values ​​of the standardized score, the fewer liters of pure alcohol per person per year, and according to the indicator “number of square meters per person" the higher the value of the standardized score, the more meters per person in the region.

The total score for individual factors of criterion No. 5 was calculated by summing the standardized scores for all indicators analyzed in a particular factor.

Values ​​for four demographic criteria: “birth rate”, “population growth”, “number of children per 1 woman” and “induced abortion” were included in the final “birth rate rating score” with a weight of “1”.

And the total score for the fifth social criterion - "the level of social comfort for fertility" - the experts proposed to include in the final "fertility rating score" with a weight of "0.1".

Comments

LeaderFederal project "Sober Russia", member of the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation Sultan Khamzaev:“The importance of this rating lies in its vital necessity for the country. It is today that the issue of increasing human capital and increasing the able-bodied part of the population is a cornerstone for Russia. After all, the “growth of the birth rate” is, perhaps, one of the most key vectors for the development of the country. I would like this rating to help us study and analyze the actual and objective situation with the birth rate in each region of the Russian Federation.

There are regions in the Russian Federation where many children are born. Moreover, only about half of the regions of the country are experiencing natural population growth (43 regions). In this regard, we made an attempt to analyze which social factors in these “demographically prosperous” regions can be identified as positive social motivators of fertility. At the same time, there is also the other half of the country (42 regions) - these are the subjects of the Russian Federation where the death rate exceeds the birth rate, and there is a natural population decline. In such regions, we decided to isolate negative social indicators of fertility. All together, we conditionally designated these social factors as the regional level of “social comfort” for fertility. From our point of view, the first birth rate rating of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation will help the regions adjust their population policy and will become a kind of incentive for the exchange of positive practices. We want to make this rating an annual one.”

Kirill Akimov, Head of the Expert Analytical Center at the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation: "National birth rate rating in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation-2017" - in 2017 was created for the first time. The "National Birth Rate Ranking in the Subjects of the Russian Federation-2017" took into account such 4 classical criteria as "Birth rate", "Population growth/decline", "Number of children per 1 woman", "Artificial termination of pregnancy", as well as a new complex compound proposed by experts criterion - "the level of social comfort for fertility" in each of the subjects of the Russian Federation. To calculate it, the experts identified 9 most socially significant factors, each of which was previously ranked according to 1-5 objective statistical indicators. As a result, from the sum of the scores for these five criteria, each region was assigned a regional “birth rate rating score”. We hope that the new “National birth rate rating in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation-2017” will serve as an incentive to improve the state demographic policy.”

Criteria

The most important criteria for studying how natural fertility, and those social factors that positively or negatively affect the degree of population growth or decline in each subject of the Russian Federation.

In the "National Fertility Ranking in the Subjects of the Russian Federation-2017" the following 5 criteria were used for each region: "Birth rate", "Population growth", "Number of children per 1 woman", "Artificial abortion" and "Level of social comfort for fertility" .

Criterion #1 "Birth rate"

The first criterion - "Birth rate" is the basic and fundamental for the "Birth rate rating-2017". This criterion fixes the number of children born per 1000 people. population in each subject of the Russian Federation.

The highest birth rate (places 1-10) was registered in the Republic of Tyva, the Chechen Republic, the Republic of Altai, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Republic of Dagestan, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Republic of Buryatia, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Tyumen Region and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra.

The lowest birth rates (places 76-85) were recorded in Tver, Voronezh, Ryazan, Pskov, Penza, Smolensk, Tula, Tambov regions, in the Republic of Mordovia and in Leningrad region.

Criterion #2 "population growth"

The second criterion "Population growth" is also the second most important for the "2017 Fertility Rating". This criterion registers the coefficient of natural increase of inhabitants in each region of Russia. This coefficient is calculated as the difference between the total birth and death rates. That is, it shows how much the birth rate exceeds the death rate in each subject of the Russian Federation per year. If the birth rate exceeds the death rate in a region, then the “population growth” will be positive there. And if vice versa, then the population growth becomes negative and is called "population decline". The coefficient of natural population growth for each region is calculated per 1000 inhabitants per year and is measured in ppm.

During the analyzed period, natural population growth was observed in only 43 subjects of the Russian Federation (51%) out of 85.

The top ten in terms of natural population growth (places 1-10) included the Chechen Republic, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Republic of Tyva, the Republic of Dagestan, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - Yugra, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Tyumen region and the Republic of Altai.

In addition, natural population growth was also observed in the following regions of the country: the Republic of Buryatia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, the Republic of Kalmykia, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, the Republic of Tatarstan, the Trans-Baikal Territory, the Astrakhan Region, the Tomsk Region , Moscow, St. Petersburg, Irkutsk Region, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Udmurt Republic, Kamchatka Territory, Stavropol Territory, Komi Republic, Republic of Khakassia, Republic of Bashkortostan, Novosibirsk Region, Omsk Region, Khabarovsk Territory, Chuvash Republic, Republic of Mari El , Krasnodar Territory, Perm Territory, Sakhalin Region, Murmansk Region, Sverdlovsk Region, Orenburg Region, Magadan Region and Chelyabinsk Region (places 11-43).

However, in 42 out of 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation (49%), the natural increase had a negative value, since a natural population decline was registered there. At the same time, the largest natural population decline was noted in the following regions: Ryazan region, Vladimir region, Leningrad region, Oryol region, Novgorod region, Smolensk region, Tambov region, Tver region, Tula region and Pskov region (places 76-85).

Criterion number 3. "Number of children per woman"

The third criterion of the "Birth Rating-2017" is called "The number of children per 1 woman." This criterion is the most accurate indicator of the birth rate for each region, as it indicates the number of children that in a given region falls on one woman of childbearing age. This indicator fixes how many children, on average, one woman would give birth to during the entire reproductive period (from 15 to 49 years old) while maintaining the birth rate of the year under study at each age. The value of "the number of children per 1 woman" does not depend on age composition population and characterizes the average birth rate in a given calendar period in the region. This regional coefficient is calculated as the sum age coefficients birth rate for age groups in the range of 15 - 49 years and is measured in "units".

3 children

In the Russian Federation, only in 4 regions out of 85 (5%), three children are born per woman. The Republic of Tyva has risen to the first place. Places from second to fourth are occupied by the Chechen Republic, the Republic of Altai and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. (Places 1-4).

2 children

Two children are born per woman in the following 16 regions of the Russian Federation (19%): Republic of Buryatia, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Kurgan Region, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra, Tyumenskaya region, Trans-Baikal Territory, Jewish Autonomous Region, Republic of Dagestan, Sakhalin Region, Perm Territory, Orenburg Region, Irkutsk Region, Udmurt Republic and Komi Republic. (Places 5-20).

1 child

One child is born per woman in 65 subjects of the Russian Federation (76%).

Places 21-75 were distributed among the regions in the following order: Republic of Mari El, Republic of Khakassia, Republic of Ingushetia, Astrakhan Region, Sverdlovsk Region, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, Vologda Region, Kirov Region, Omsk Region, Chuvash Republic, Kostroma Region , Kamchatka Territory, Republic of Tatarstan, Khabarovsk Territory, Chelyabinsk Region, Krasnodar Territory, Amur Region, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Kaluga Region, Republic of Kalmykia, Sevastopol, Arkhangelsk Region, Republic of Crimea, Novosibirsk Region, Altai Territory, Novgorod Region, Republic of Karelia, Primorsky Territory, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Kaliningrad Region, Pskov Region, Vladimir Region, Kemerovo Region, Republic of Adygea, Kursk Region, Murmansk Region, Ulyanovsk Region, Samara Region, Lipetsk Region, Tver Region, Yaroslavl Region, Moscow Region, Nizhny Novgorod Region, Magadan region, Bryan region, Stavropol Territory, Ryazan Region, Ivanovo Region, Rostov Region, Oryol Region, Saratov Region, Tomsk Region, St. Petersburg and Volgograd Region.

The last ten places according to this criterion are occupied by the Tula region, the Belgorod region, the Penza region, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, the Smolensk region, the Voronezh region, the Tambov region, Moscow, the Republic of Mordovia and the Leningrad region (Places 76-85).

Criterion number 4. "Artificial termination of pregnancy"

As the fourth criterion for the Fertility Rating-2017, experts proposed to analyze the number of artificial terminations of pregnancy (abortions) in the regions. For this, such a statistical indicator as “The number of artificial terminations of pregnancy (abortions) per 100 births” was studied in each subject of the Russian Federation.

This criterion is included in the list of the main criteria of the Fertility Rating-2017, since, according to experts, it is a factor influencing the demographic situation of the regions.

It seems that preventive work, as well as the improvement of measures to reduce the number of artificial terminations of pregnancy (abortions) in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in the future, may affect the demographic situation of the country as a whole.

The lowest values ​​of this indicator were registered in the Republic of Dagestan and the Chechen Republic (12 abortions per 100 births), as well as in the Republic of Ingushetia (13 abortions per 100 births).

Maximum values this indicator registered in the Magadan Region (97 abortions per 100 births), in the Jewish Autonomous Region (81 abortions per 100 births) and in the Pskov Region (74 abortions per 100 births).

Criterion number 5. "The level of social comfort for fertility"

Since it turned out to be difficult to present the level of social comfort for fertility in the form of any one ready-made statistical indicator, it was proposed new scheme for the analysis and calculation of criterion No. 5 in each of the regions of Russia.

In order to calculate the "Level of social comfort for fertility" in each of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, experts identified 9 most socially significant factors: 1) "Alcohol/narcotics/tobacco" (the level of alcohol, drug and tobacco threats); 2) "Housing and communal services" (provision of housing, especially for young and large families); 3) "Healthy lifestyle"; 4) "Infrastructure of childhood" (number of children per 100 places in kindergartens); 5) "Standard of living of the population" (the ratio of wages to the subsistence minimum for children); 6) "Force majeure" (infant mortality rate in the region); 7) “Family stability” (number of marriages and divorces); 8) “Health care” (how many obstetric beds are provided); 9) “Number of children in a family” (share of families with many children).

A total of 19 were selected for objectivity and breadth of coverage. statistical indicators: from 1 to 5 data series for each social factor.

As a result, all regions were first ranked separately for each of the 9 social factors that positively or destructively affect the birth rate. Then, out of 9 total scores, the total score was calculated according to criterion No. 5.

As a result, the maximum scores for criterion No. 5 were received by those regions where the most comfortable social environment for childbirth in Russia has been created: the Belgorod Region, St. Petersburg and the Tambov Region. (Places 1-3).

The minimum scores for this criterion No. 5 went to the regions: Moscow, the Irkutsk region and the Chechen Republic. (Place 83-85).

Socially comfortable environment for fertility

The nature of the influence of various social factors on the ongoing demographic processes in the regions is heterogeneous. If, for example, a constituent entity takes care that young and large families receive their own housing (the “housing and communal services” factor), as well as a “healthy lifestyle” of the population, then this creates a “comfortable social environment” for adding families and increasing fertility. Such positive practices of the leading regions should be advertised and replicated.

On the contrary, in those regions where an increased "alcohol, tobacco or drug threat" is registered, as well as where there is a high "infant mortality", elements of an uncomfortable social environment are formed, which destructively affects not only the birth rate in a particular region, but also leads to a decrease in population in the country as a whole. For such regions, more effective innovative prevention strategies should be developed.

This criterion was introduced to attract the attention of scientists, specialists, civil society, as well as representatives of regional and federal bodies authorities to create the most comfortable social environment for fertility.

Indicators of the level of social comfort for fertility

When assessing the “level of social comfort for fertility” in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the experts proposed to study from 1 to 5 regional profile statistical indicators for each of these 9 factors.

Factor No. 1. "Alco / drugs / tobacco":

Indicator 5.1.1. Alcoholization (sales of alcohol in liters of pure alcohol per person).

Indicator 5.1.2. The amount of money that is spent per capita in the region on buying cigarettes in specialized stores retail(thousand rubles).

Indicator 5.1.3. The state of drug addiction (the number of patients registered in medical institutions per 100,000 people diagnosed with drug addiction (persons)).

In terms of the sum of the scores of the three indicators of factor No. 1, the Republic of Ingushetia occupied the first place with the minimum values, and the Sakhalin Region occupied the 85th place (with the maximum values).

Factor No. 2. Housing and communal services:

Indicator 5.2.1. The total area of ​​residential premises per 1 inhabitant on average (at the end of the period), (sq. meter).

Indicator 5.2.2. The number of young families registered as needing housing.

Indicator 5.2.3. The number of young families registered as needing housing and having improved living conditions.

Indicator 5.2.4. The number of large families registered as needing housing.

Indicator 5.2.5. The number of families with many children who received housing and improved their living conditions.

According to the sum of points of five indicators of factor No. 2, the city of St. Petersburg is in the first place, and the Chechen Republic is in 85th place.

Factor No. 3. "Healthy lifestyle":

Indicator 5.3.1. The share of the population systematically engaged in physical culture and sports in the total population.

Indicator 5.3.2. The number of sports facilities per 100 thousand people (units).

Indicator 5.3.3. One-time throughput of sports facilities.

According to the sum of points of three indicators of factor No. 3, the Belgorod region is in first place, and the Republic of Ingushetia is in 85th place.

Factor No. 4. "Infrastructure of childhood":

Indicator 5.4.1. Number of children per 100 places in preschool educational institutions.

According to this indicator of factor No. 3, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug is in first place, and the Chechen Republic is in 85th place.

Factor No. 5. "Standard of living of the population":

Indicator 5.5.1. Average monthly nominal accrued wage employees of organizations (rubles).

Indicator 5.5.2. Value living wage per child under 16, established in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the fourth quarter of 2015 (rubles).

According to the sum of points of two indicators of factor No. 5, the Tyumen region took the first place, and the Pskov region took the 85th place.

Factor number 6. "Force majeure":

Indicator 5.6.1. Infant mortality (number of children who die before the age of 1 year per 1000 live births).

According to this indicator of factor No. 6, the Chuvash Republic rose to the first place (the minimum indicator), and the 85th place went to the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (the maximum value).

Factor #7. "Family Resilience":

Indicator 5.7.1. Marriage rate (per 1000 population).

Indicator 5.7.2. The number of divorces per 1000 marriages.

According to the sum of the scores of these two indicators of factor No. 7, the city of Sevastopol occupied the first place, and the Leningrad region occupied the 85th place.

Factor No. 8. "Healthcare":

Indicator 5.8.1. Number of obstetric beds and provision per 10,000 women of childbearing age (15-49 years).

As a result of the analysis of this indicator of factor No. 8, the first place is occupied by the Republic of Tyva, and the 85th place is occupied by Moscow.

Factor No. 9. "Number of children in the family":

Indicator 5.9.1. The share of family cells (%) with 3 or more children in the Russian Federation (according to All-Russian census population in 2010 and the population census in the Crimean Federal District in 2014).

In the study of this indicator factor number 9 in the first place - the Republic of Ingushetia, and in 85th place - the city of St. Petersburg.

Research frequency

"National birth rate rating in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - 2017" is the second joint study of the Federal project "Sober Russia" and the Expert Analytical Center at the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation. In 2016, in a series of similar studies, the National Sobriety Rating of the Subjects of the Russian Federation - 2016 was presented.

In order to ensure the possibility of further monitoring of the dynamics of "fertility" in the regions, it is proposed to continue the this study approach in the future.

The initiators of the study plan to make the "National Birth Rate in the Subjects of the Russian Federation" annual.

Forecast

Today, population growth as a guarantor of the demographic security of Russia should become a matter of national importance for our Motherland.

Increasing the birth rate should be considered as one of the main priorities of Russia's development.

Not only federal and regional state policy as a whole, but also all programs, subprograms and various macro and micro projects of the country should be strategically aimed at increasing the birth rate.

The birth rate vector is vital now not only for every region of Russia, every city and village, but also for every Russian family.

The issues of the demographic stability of the Russian Federation are acquiring extraordinary social significance and relevance at the present time. Especially in connection with the fact that experts foresee a slowdown in population growth in Russia in the very near future.

So, according to experts of the Federal State Statistics Service, starting from 2016, the natural population growth will go into the "negative zone", that is, the country is waiting for a roll into the "natural decline" of the population .

In order to timely draw the attention of federal and regional authorities, civil activists and society to the problem of maintaining a stable increase in the population in Russia and to return to the track of a constant increase in the birth rate in all regions of our country, the first “National Birth Rate Rating in the Subjects of the Russian Federation-2017” was created.

"Birth rate rating-2017" developed by " federal project"Sober Russia" and the Expert and Analytical Center at the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation as an innovative tool for public control over the effectiveness of federal and regional state policy in the field of demography and fertility.

1-5 places

The first places (1-5) in the Fertility Rating-2017 were distributed among the following regions: the Republic of Tyva (41.95 points), the Chechen Republic (41.88), the Republic of Ingushetia (37.30), the Republic of Dagestan (36.86 ) and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (36.09).

All these 5 regions received a high total score for the first 4 demographic criteria: "Birth rate", "Population growth", "Number of children per 1 woman" and "Number of induced abortions".

It is worth noting that the Chechen Republic has taken the lead in these four main demographic criteria, although by a small margin.

In the competitive struggle between the Chechen Republic and the Republic of Tyva, the decisive factor that allowed the Republic of Tyva to lead the rating was criterion No. 5 “Social comfort for fertility”.

According to the total score for this criterion No. 5, the Republic of Tyva received the 17th place, and the Chechen Republic received the 85th place, which indicates an insufficient level of social comfort for the birth rate in the Chechen Republic and allows us to conclude that it is necessary to take a set of measures aimed at its improvement.

The strongest side among the indicators of this social criterion for the Republic of Tyva is the “Number of children in the family” (“the share of family units with 3 or more children”), as well as “Health care” (“the number of obstetric beds and provision per 10,000 women of childbearing age (15 -49 years old)").

The indicators of this factor, which served as the location of the Chechen Republic behind the Republic of Tyva, were: "Housing and communal services" (" total area living quarters per 1 inhabitant", "number of young families registered as in need of residential premises", "number of young families registered as in need of residential premises and improved living conditions", "number of large families registered as needing housing”, “the number of large families who received housing and improved their living conditions”), “Infrastructure of childhood” (“the number of children per 100 places in preschool educational institutions”), and “ HLS” (“the share of the population systematically engaged in physical culture and sports in the total population”, “the number of sports facilities per 100 thousand people of the population (units)”, “one-time throughput of sports facilities”).

At the same time, experts note that the first 4 classic criteria "Birth rate", "Population growth", "Number of children per 1 woman" and "Number of induced abortions" are of paramount importance for the ranking of regions ("weight "1"), and social criterion No. 5 has an optional value (weight "0.1"). However, it was this social criterion that was of decisive importance in the rating, given the almost equal positions of the two leaders in the first four criteria.

In this regard, the total score for "Social comfort for fertility" allowed the Republic of Tyva to overtake the Chechen Republic and get the highest final score in the 2017 fertility rating.

81-85 places

The last places (81-85) in the Fertility Rating-2017 were distributed among the following regions: Oryol region (26.46 points), Smolensk region (26.42), Magadan region (25.79), Pskov region (25.45 ) and the Leningrad Region (24.33).

All these 5 regions received the lowest total score for the first 4 demographic criteria: "Birth rate", "Population growth", "Number of children per 1 woman" and "Number of induced abortions".

It is worth noting that the Leningrad region took the last place in terms of the total score for the main four demographic criteria, although not far behind the Pskov region.

In the competitive struggle between the Leningrad Region and the Pskov Region, the decisive factor that left the Leningrad Region in the last position in the ranking was the total score for criterion No. 5 "Social comfort for fertility".

According to the total score for this criterion No. 5, the Leningrad region received 81st place, and the Pskov region -57th place, which indicates an insufficient level of social comfort for the birth rate in both regions and allows us to conclude that it is necessary to take a set of measures aimed at its improvement.

Most strengths among the indicators of this social criterion for the Leningrad region were “housing and communal services” (“total area of ​​residential premises per 1 inhabitant”, “number of young families registered as in need of residential premises”, “number of young families consisting of registered as those in need of housing and improved their living conditions”, “the number of large families registered as those in need of housing”, “the number of large families who received housing and improved their living conditions”), “Infrastructure of childhood” (“ number of children per 100 places in preschool educational institutions") and "Standard of living" ("average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees of organizations" and "subsistence level per child under 16").

The above advantages and disadvantages for all five regions finishing the ranking lines can serve as an incentive for them to study the best regional practices and take measures to strengthen human capital in these constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

St. Petersburg and Moscow (places 21 and 48)

Both regions received a low total score for the first 4 demographic criteria: "Birth rate", "Population growth", "Number of children per 1 woman" and "Number of induced abortions".

It should be noted that the city of St. Petersburg overtook Moscow by 11 positions in terms of the total points for these demographic indicators.

In the competition between St. Petersburg and Moscow, the decisive factor that allowed St. Petersburg to increase the gap and improve its position by 6 points was criterion No. 5 “Social comfort for fertility”.

According to the total score for this social criterion No. 5, St. Petersburg received 2nd place, and Moscow - 83rd place, which indicates an insufficient level of social comfort for the birth rate in the capital and allows us to conclude that a set of measures is necessary aimed at improving it.

The strongest side among the indicators of this social criterion No. 5 for Moscow was the “Standard of living” (“average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees of organizations” and “subsistence minimum for a child under 16 years old”) and “Family stability” (“marriage rate (per 1,000 population)" and "the number of divorces per 1,000 marriages").

The indicators of this factor, which served as the location of Moscow behind the city of St. Petersburg, were: "Housing and communal services" ("the total area of ​​residential premises per 1 inhabitant", "the number of young families registered as in need of residential premises" , "the number of young families registered as needing housing and having improved housing conditions", "the number of large families registered as needing housing", "the number of large families who received housing and improved housing conditions" ), “Alco/narco/tobacco” (“sales of alcohol in liters of pure alcohol per person”, “the amount of money spent per capita in the region on the purchase of cigarettes in specialized retail stores”, “the number of patients registered in health care facilities per 100,000 people diagnosed with drug addiction"), "healthy lifestyle" ("the share of the population systematically engaged in physical culture and sports, in the total number of us districts”, “number of sports facilities per 100,000 population (units)”, “one-time capacity of sports facilities”) and “Healthcare” (“number of obstetric beds and provision per 10,000 women of childbearing age (15-49 years)”) .

In this regard, the total score for “Social comfort for fertility” allowed St. Petersburg to overtake Moscow and get a final score in the 2017 fertility rating 27 positions higher than the capital.

Given the goals and objectives of this rating, the above advantages and disadvantages of these cities federal significance, can serve as an incentive to learn and replicate best practices and take action to strengthen human capital.

Final table

Our country is one of the few countries in the world where there is a low birth rate. Combined with high mortality, it has a negative impact on demographic indicators. AT last years The birth rate in Russia has fallen sharply. Forecasts are also disappointing.

General information about the population of Russia

According to Rosstat, the population of Russia in 2018 amounted to 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This figure puts our country in ninth place in terms of population in the world. The average population density in our country is 8.58 people. per 1 km 2.

Most of the inhabitants are concentrated in the European territory of Russia (about 68%), although in area it is much smaller than the Asian one. This is clearly seen from the distribution of population density: in the west of the country it is 27 people. per 1 km 2, and in the center and east - only 3 people. per 1 km 2. The highest density value is recorded in Moscow - over 4626 people / 1 km 2, and the minimum - in the Chukotka district (below 0.07 people / 1 km 2).

The share of urban residents is 74.43 percent. There are 170 cities in Russia with a population of more than 100,000 people. In 15 of them, the population exceeds 1 million.

The birth rate in Russia is quite low.

In total, over 200 different nationalities can be found in the country. They are also called ethnic groups. The share of Russians in this case is about 81 percent. In second place are Tatars (3.9%), and in third - Ukrainians. Approximately one percent of the total population falls on such nationalities as Chuvash, Bashkirs, Chechens, Armenians.

In Russia, the predominance of the elderly population over those of working age is pronounced. The ratio of employed and pensioners in our country is 2.4/1, and, for example, in the USA it is 4.4/1, in China - 3.5/1, and in Uganda - 9/1. The figures are closest in Greece: 2.5/1.

Demographic characteristics of Russia

For Russia, a gradual decline in population is typical. In the 50s of the 20th century, the natural increase was at the level of 15-20 people per 1000 inhabitants per year. There were many large families.

In the 60s, it fell rapidly, and in the 70s and 80s it was only a little over 5 people.

A new sharp drop occurred in the early 90s, as a result of which it became negative and was at the level of minus 5-6 people per thousand inhabitants per year. In the middle of the 2000s, the situation began to improve, and by 2013 the growth went into the positive zone. However, in recent years it has deteriorated again.

However, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia and mortality are not always interconnected. Thus, the fall in the birth rate in the 1960s did not lead to a change in the dynamics of mortality. At the same time, in the first half of the 1990s, the death rate increased sharply, but somewhat later than the birth rate fell. In the 2000s, the birth rate began to grow, but the death rate continued to increase, but not at such a rapid pace. From the middle to the end of the 2000s, there was an improvement in all indicators: the birth rate was growing, and the death rate was falling. In recent years, the statistics of fertility and mortality in Russia has the following features: there is a sharp decline in the birth rate, but the death rate continues to decrease.

In general, over the past 65 years, the birth rate has fallen by about half, and the death rate has not changed much.

The birth rate in Russia in recent decades

If we do not take the last 2 years, then the overall picture of fertility reflects a sharp decline in the 90s and a gradual rise since the mid-2000s. There is a clear positive relationship between rural and urban populations, but the range of fluctuations is higher for rural areas. All this is shown by the graph of the birth rate in Russia by years.

The rapid decline in the indicator continued until 1993, after which the field slowed down sharply. The bottom was reached in 1999. Then began a gradual increase in the values ​​that reached maximum value in 2015 For rural population the maximum was passed a year earlier. Since there are more urban residents than rural ones, the average indicators more clearly reflect the dynamics of the urban population.

Population dynamics in Russia

The population is influenced not only by natural increase, but also by migration flows. Most of the migrants come from countries Central Asia. In recent years, refugees arriving from Ukraine have also affected the growth of the population of our country.

The total population of Russia increased until 1996, after which its steady decline began, which continued until 2010. Then growth resumed again.

General demographic situation

The demographic situation in Russia, according to UN estimates, meets the criteria for a demographic crisis. The average birth rate is 1.539. Mortality is traditionally high in Russia. Characteristic of our country is a sharp predominance of deaths from cardiovascular diseases over other causes, which is directly related to the health-destroying lifestyle of most Russians. Improper diet, physical inactivity and smoking are common causes deaths. The extremely unsatisfactory state of medicine also affects, and in some places the depressing ecological situation. Drunkenness is common in many regions.

In terms of life expectancy, Russia lags far behind all developed countries and even from a number of developing countries.

Birth rate in Russia by region

The distribution of this indicator on the map of our country is rather uneven. The highest values ​​are recorded in the east of the North Caucasus and in certain areas in the south of Siberia. Here the birth rate reaches 25-26.5 people per thousand inhabitants per year.

The lowest rates are observed in the central regions of the European part of Russia. This is especially pronounced in the southeast of the Central federal district and in some regions of the Volga region. In the very center, the situation is somewhat better, which is obviously due to the influence of Moscow. In general, the worst birth rates are observed in approximately the same regions where the maximum death rate is recorded.

Birth rate in Russia in recent years

Since 2016, the country has experienced a sharp drop in the birth rate. The number of births this year was 10% less than in the same period last year, and in 2017, the birth rate in Russia showed the same decline compared to 2016.

In the first 3 months of 2018, 391 thousand people were born in Russia, which is 21 thousand less than in January-March last year. However, in some regions, the birth rate increased slightly. These are the Republic of Altai, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kalmykia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

At the same time, mortality, on the contrary, decreased - by 2% per year.

The reasons for the decline in fertility may be natural: the number of women of childbearing age is gradually decreasing, which is an echo of the decline of the 90s. Therefore, the decrease in the absolute birth rate is estimated at a smaller value - 7.5%, and it may reflect the change in the socio-economic situation in the country in recent years.

Due to the low birth rate, natural growth was also low. Although 63.6 thousand people died in 2017 less than a year earlier, the decrease in the number of births amounted to 203 thousand people. At the same time, the total population has slightly increased due to increased migration flow from Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, from Ukraine. Thus, the birth rate in Russia in 2017 and 2018 was significantly reduced.

Forecast

According to the Rosstat forecast, the demographic situation in the country will continue to deteriorate, and migration flows will no longer be able to cover the natural population decline. The prices for hydrocarbon raw materials will obviously, as before, play a big role in the future demographic fate of the country. Thus, the birth rate in Russia will be low.