Forecasts of the dollar and euro for the fall. Forecasts of dollar and euro exchange rates for autumn The main factors affecting the EUR exchange rate

Euro(Eng. Euro) - the official currency of 19 countries of the Eurozone (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia). Euro is also the national currency of 9 more states, 7 of which are located in Europe. However, unlike the members of the eurozone, these countries cannot influence the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and send their representatives to its governing bodies. Thus, the euro is the single currency for more than 340 million Europeans. As of November 2013 in cash circulation was 951 billion euros, which made this currency the owner of the highest total value of cash circulating around the world, ahead of the US dollar in this indicator.

1 euro is equal to 100 cents (or euro cents). Banknote denominations in circulation: 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 euros. Coins: 2 and 1 euro, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 and 1 cents. The name of the currency comes from the word "Europe".

Eurocurrency is printed by central banks that are members of the European System of Central Banks. All issued banknotes have one standard design. On the front side, windows, gates, bridges are depicted as symbols of openness and interconnection. They are made in the form of typical examples of the main styles of European architecture: classical, Romanesque, Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and Rococo, "metal and glass", Art Nouveau. At the same time, euro banknotes differ in color palette: 500 - purple, 200 - yellow, 100 - green, 50 - orange, 20 - blue, 10 red, and 5 - gray.

Unlike banknotes, the coins have only the front side in common, on which the denomination is placed against the background of the symbolic map of Europe. The reverse side is considered "national" - each issuing central bank has its own for each denomination.

Despite the fact that officially non-cash euros were introduced on January 1, 1999, and cash was issued on January 1, 2002, the history of the single European currency is older. Before the euro appeared, from 1979 to 1998 in the European monetary system the ECU unit of account (ECU, European Currency Unit) was used, which was a conditional basket of national monetary units a number of countries. Subsequently, the ECU was exchanged for the euro at a one-to-one rate.

Officially trading in the euro on the international foreign exchange market began on January 4, 1999. To save investors from currency risks, quotes of national currencies were fixed. Thus, the exchange rate of the German mark was 1.95583 per euro, the French franc - 6.55957, and the Italian lira - 1,936.21. At the same time, the initial exchange rate of the euro against the dollar was determined at about $1.17.

During 1999, the euro quotes steadily declined, eventually reaching the so-called parity - equality of 1 euro and 1 dollar. At the end of September 2000, the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve System, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and a number of European banks conducted a joint intervention in support of the single euro currency. However, this did not prevent her from achieving absolute historical low, which amounted to 0.8230 dollars per euro in October 2000.

It was recognized that a further decline in quotations single currency could hurt the European economy. At the same time, by the end of 2000, the US Federal Reserve, in order to cope with the upcoming recession, took a course on easing monetary policy, cutting, in particular, the discount rate to 2%. Since interest rates in Europe turned out to be higher, the euro became more attractive for investment than the dollar. In addition, in 2001, the US economy experienced a shock caused by the September 11 terrorist attack. By the end of the year, the euro was trading at 0.96 per dollar, and by July 2002 it returned to parity again. Finally more expensive than a dollar he became after December 6 of the same year. And in 2003, it began to grow steadily in price against the backdrop of the US entry into the war in Iraq.

Its initial value of 1.1736, fixed on the first trading day, the rate reached on May 23, 2003, and the absolute maximum - 1.5990 - in 2008. This became possible due to the global financial crisis, which this time originated in financial system U.S.A. Economists believe that the strengthening of the euro was due mainly to the weakness of the US economy, and not to the strength of the European one. This assumption is also supported by the fact that the aggravation of problems in the eurozone subsequently led to a halt in the growth of currency quotes. For the summer of 2011, the euro exchange rate fluctuates between 1.41-1.45 dollars.

Nevertheless, during its existence, the euro confidently took the second place in the world in terms of government reserves. This is due to the fact that, in total, the gross domestic product of the countries included in the eurozone exceeds even the US GDP, which ranks first in the world.

The euro/dollar currency pair is the most traded on Forex market and financial derivatives - futures. Today, Europe represents a real alternative to the United States in terms of investment opportunities. At the same time, the choice of investors is influenced primarily by the comparison macroeconomic indicators two regions, such as the inflation rate, the prevailing interest rates, GDP, trade balance, etc.

At the same time, the biggest problem of the euro area remains the difference in the level of the economies of the member countries. The strongest are Germany, Italy, France. To those experiencing difficulties - Greece, Ireland and a number of others.

For Russian investors The euro is traditionally interesting as an alternative to the US dollar. The European currency is used to diversify the risks associated with exchange rates, and as an independent direction of investment - in times of rising quotes.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that the settlement in the countries - members of the euro area by debit or credit cards it is more profitable to produce in this currency in order to avoid unnecessary conversion.

Changing the dynamics of currency ratios is an urgent issue that worries not only economists throughout the country, but also ordinary people. In the context of the developing crisis, the ruble exchange rate is not able to demonstrate stability. The indicator on the stock exchanges is constantly jumping, people involved in business and trade are forced to constantly monitor the latest changes online, analyze the chart, and make assumptions.

Permanent uncertainty cannot but affect the mood of society. Worries and constant doubts do not allow you to be confident in the near future and make solid plans. One of the available options is to turn to the opinions of experts who are able at a professional level to give an objective assessment of the situation in the economy and predict further movement. exchange rate.

The current situation in the financial market is displayed by one of worst case development of events. Half of the year has passed, marking its end with a solid fall in the positions of the domestic currency. The collapse of the ruble did not come as a surprise to analysts, since something similar was expected by the fall of this year. However, events began to develop rapidly, turning into premature significant changes in the stock exchanges. Such a turn does not at all mean the impossibility of making plans for currency fluctuations for the rest of the year. The position of the currency of the Old World in relation to the ruble has similar trends with the position of the American counterpart, but does not demonstrate transparency and obviousness.

The current exchange rate for today varies around 74 rubles per euro. The ratio of the latter to the dollar is 1.11. But parity is not expected. Some fall of the euro (by 1%) was caused by the statement of the head of the European Central Bank negative expectations about economic growth in EU countries.

What are the influencing factors?

The ruble continues to lose its positions and sets new record levels, the latter cannot in any way cause positive emotions. The factors that affect the currency ratio in Russia are as follows:

• the cost of gas and oil (at the beginning of the year, profit from sales of energy Chinese market was able to somehow bring stability to the economy);
• investment policy(at the beginning of the year it was supposed to receive benefits from investments in the development of the Crimean region and Asian regions);
• Ukrainian crisis (the inability to peacefully resolve the conflict between neighboring countries leads to the impossibility of strengthening national course);
• the policy of sanctions (the organization of exports to Asian countries, the reduction of import supplies and the development of domestic production in the face of restrictions from the West, experts consider the natural way out);
• the situation in Europe (events in Greece, direction economic influence Germany).

Perspective analysis.

Expert forecasts, including for the fall, indicate that the eurozone currency will continue to strengthen its position, this will lead to an increase in the indicator from 76 to 88 rubles in October, then to the transition to 90 (in December). This phenomenon is connected not so much with the strengthening of the European currency, but with the weakening of the national one, which will continue in the near future. The following factors contribute to this:

• the collapse of the Chinese stock exchange;
• bilateral expansion of sanctions (initiation of measures from both the European and Russian sides);
• fulfillment of external obligations under financial sector, announced by the chief economist for the CIS and Russia Oleg Kuzmin, the amount exceeds $ 14 billion (scheduled for September);
• the impossibility of stabilizing the situation in Ukraine;
• exemption from Iran's sanctions restrictions (the probable export of oil from this country, which falls in November, is able to bring down the market once again).

The Greek crisis has overcome its climax, therefore, today, tomorrow, and further, the amplitude between the euro and the dollar will remain. This opinion is all the more true, given that in the coming days the United States plans to raise the key rate of the financial reserve. This will greatly strengthen the position of US banks, but will lead to a wave of devaluation against other currencies.

If earlier devaluation proved to be an effective measure to maintain national economy, then in the present conditions it has ceased to be relevant. This is directly related to the fact that almost all developed economies are heavily dependent on big business, which includes the real estate market, trade relations and production. All that devaluation leads to today is progressive inflation, an outflow of funds, a decrease in consumer opportunity and a decrease in investment. Economic recession is the most likely future news.

Sberbank experts predict an increase in the foreign exchange rate due to another weakening of the ruble, provoked by a decrease in interest rates, as ordered by the Central Bank. Dmitry Medvedev in the current situation with regard to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation indicated the unacceptability of hasty decisions and the lack of need for them.

The position of the euro in the global ratio.

Analysts of RBC channel experts are inclined to note the prospect of a decrease in the position of the euro against the US currency. This is due to the fact that investors try to avoid making deposits in euros due to the unstable state banking system and the general sluggish development of Europe's economic sectors. Against this background, the dollar seems to be the most attractive investment option, especially if the project is long-term.

The dependence of Europe on the economy also negatively affects the economy of the Old World developing countries. The Europeans themselves tend to blame the United States for this, not wanting to bear objective responsibility for what is happening. Prospects for a further weakening of the euro on world stock exchanges and in banks are confirmed by the aggravation of the crisis in the countries that are members of the European Union, as well as the presence of economic conflicts in the central and eastern parts of Europe.

At the same time, not a single expert takes the liberty of making a fresh and accurate forecast, however, the strengthening of the euro against the background of the weakening of the ruble is predicted by an absolute majority. Attempts to create plans and strategies for next year and are considered irrational at all, since the world is experiencing instability in all respects: both in terms of geopolitics and in relation to numerous economic factors that affect currency correlations.

Summer for the ruble ends not in the best way. If in June 1 euro could be bought for 63.5 rubles, then in August the rate reached 72 rubles. In terms of the dollar, the same figures were 56.5 and 60.7 rubles, respectively. Respected experts gave their forecast for autumn.

Analyst of BCS Financial Group Ivan Kopeikin

September will be one of the most difficult months for the ruble, as Russian companies have to pay external debts for a total of $9 billion. Less was paid in June-July.

The following external factors are also expected to impact in autumn:

• Meetings of the ECB and the Fed will be held, at which decisions may be made on the gradual tightening of monetary policy. The European Central Bank and the Fed are going to improve the attractiveness of their currencies, which could play against the ruble, especially given the policy of the Bank of Russia aimed at reducing key rate.
• Problems with US tax and infrastructure reforms are still relevant. It is not yet clear how much of Trump's campaign promises will be kept. If the reforms continue to slip, the dollar may come under increased pressure, which will help the ruble feel more confident against the US currency.

So, the forecast for the end of autumn is as follows: 61.5 rubles/dollar and 72 rubles/euro.

Investment Analyst at Global FX Sergey Kostenko

Among the positive trends for the ruble, one can single out oil prices above $50 per barrel and active sales by the RF Ministry of Finance. The latter is partly due big difference between the refinancing rate (9%) and (4%). This situation contributes to the demand for debt securities among non-residents.

There are more negative factors:

• Deterioration of the balance trade balance RF in the second quarter
• Growing geopolitical tensions. The instability associated with the North Korean crisis has a negative impact on the volume of purchases of currencies in developing countries.
• Expanding US sanctions.
• Reducing the Fed's balance sheet. The support that the Fed is going to provide to the dollar will lead to an outflow of capital from foreign investors from the Russian market.

Most likely, the negative factors will overpower the positive ones, and the ruble will continue to depreciate. We should expect upward dynamics of the dollar / ruble pair in the last days of August. At the end of the tax period, the exchange rate will return to 60 rubles/dollar, and the weakening of the ruble will continue in the future.

Forecast: 65 rubles/dollar and 75 rubles/euro.

AMarkets Lead Analyst Artem Deev

Continued U.S. sanctions pressure limits speculative inflow foreign capital in the Russian Federation and hinders the strengthening of the ruble. In autumn, there will be even more reasons for concern. Investors are already adjusting their policies in connection with the planned increase in rates in Europe and the Fed's plans to strengthen the dollar.

Oil prices can also play a negative role. The other day, the Kuwaiti authorities announced a possible change in OPEC's policy to limit oil production. This issue will be considered at the meeting of exporting countries in November. Yes, and Russia may not want to adhere to restrictions on oil production after the first quarter of 2018. The oil market is still oversaturated, and a barrel is at risk of falling below $45.

According to the forecast for the end of autumn Deev fully agree with Kostenko.

Head of Private Solutions Singapore Castle Family office Stanislav Werner

The Fed is expected to start cutting its balance sheet in September. After that, the dollar will strengthen and there will be an outflow of funds from developing countries. So far, the ruble is showing stability on expectations of the resumption of the CBR rate cut cycle at a meeting to be held on September 15. For the last 3 weeks, consumer prices have been falling, which makes it possible to predict a reduction in the key rate by 0.5% at once.

In addition, two factors are now playing into the hands of the ruble: taxable period and acceptable oil prices. Therefore, the beginning of September for the domestic currency will be positive: the dollar may fall in price by 0.5-1 ruble.

But then it will be more difficult. Oil prices are now holding up thanks to the automobile season in the United States and the promise of the Saudi Arabian authorities to reduce oil sales in September. In the future, the dollar may strengthen, which will lead to an outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation. As a result, the stability of the ruble will weaken, and the exchange rate will turn in the opposite direction.

Maxim Oreshkin, who is the head of the ministry economic development Russia, made a forecast of the euro exchange rate for September 2017. The Minister noted that sharp fluctuations there will be no exchange rate of the Russian national currency. The macroeconomic forecast, published this spring, has been adjusted - at the time of preparation, the cost was taken into account about $50 per barrel of oil, now the price has dropped to $46.

Expert forecasts on the euro exchange rate in Russia

Maxim Oreshkin, head of the Ministry of Economic Development, said that sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency should not be expected:

« The course began to weaken. It is not worth expecting any sharp deviations from what we expected or from the current state. That is, there will be no jump (dollar) to 80 rubles, and so on».

The agency has adjusted the macroeconomic forecast published this spring. According to the minister, the euro/dollar exchange rate was a mistake: the calculation was made at 1.06, while now it is 1.14. Thus, the value of the dollar is 61 rubles, and the euro - 69.

Dynamics of the euro exchange rate against the ruble. Exchange trading indicators

In June, the Ministry of Finance placed Eurobonds (bonds, securities) in the amount of $ 3 billion for terms: 1 billion for ten years and two billion for 30 years. According to the head of department Anton Siluanov, foreign investors showed interest by purchasing 85% of the placed securities.

Meanwhile, the euro rose on the Moscow Exchange. One of the reasons for the growth of the single European currency in Russia, experts call the fears associated with the possible expansion of anti-Russian sanctions. Back in mid-June, the US Senate approved a bill to increase the number of sanctions against Russia, and the Trump administration plans to support it. National currency will continue to weaken against the euro / dollar even despite the rise in oil prices.

The cost of black gold also continues to fluctuate. Some decrease in fuel prices against the backdrop of news about the increase in production by Saudi Arabia was replaced by an increase in futures. The market also froze in anticipation of news about oil production and reserves in America - experts' forecasts indicate a reduction in fuel reserves in the west. All this together does not allow the Russian ruble to strengthen its position.

Europe has always shown good forecasts in various economic sectors. Also, it is famous for the high standard of living of the population, unique medicine (for example, Germany), low cost of prices for food and other goods. Germany is unofficially recognized as the pinnacle of Europe.

The official currency in the European Union is the Euro (EUR). This currency is used by 17 countries (members of the EU). Supports and appoints face value currency European Central bank(ECB) which is located in Frankfurt.

Economy

The European Union is the most major exporter peace. Recently, the Euro has grown significantly against the ruble, and slightly against the dollar. This is due to the fact that a certain parity (1: 1.17) is established between the EUR and USD (dollar), which does not allow the Euro to be released below the Dollar. This is due to the fact that in addition to exports, Europe is an active importer (the second in the world) and it is beneficial for them to maintain a high exchange rate.

Unemployment in Europe is growing at a rapid pace, if in 2008 the unemployment rate was 6.7%, then in 2009 this figure was 9.3%.

The main factors affecting the EUR exchange rate

1. The first factor influencing the course is, of course, ECB policy. On this moment The euro is one of the most liquid commodities on the market. European currency pushing out more and more American currency from the market, and this speaks of the competent and consistent policy of the President of the ECB - Mario Draghi.
2. dollar exchange rate. Of course, the American influences the Euro, this is due to the fact that most market transactions are carried out with the participation of the dollar.
3. Unemployment rate. Quite a few important factor- unemployment, the lower the unemployment rate, the higher the real production, which affects the exchange rate and the economy as a whole.
4. Inflation. High inflation is very detrimental to the exchange rate. A small increase in inflation (2-7%) in one year is good, as it provides an incentive for growth.
5. Foreign policy of the EU countries. The more countries trust the EU, the better the EUR exchange rate feels.
6. GDP level ( Gross Domestic Product). High level GDP is guaranteed to provide a stable - high exchange rate.

Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2017

Recently, the Euro has jumped sharply against other currencies, this is due to the growth of the dollar, as well as the fall in oil prices. It is extremely beneficial for the European Union to maintain the growth rate of the Euro, this will partially help to displace the dollar as the most demanded currency for 2016-2017. The ECB has recently begun to pursue an aggressive policy towards other currencies, creating pressure on the world market, in other words, has increased the volume of the Euro several times. Of course, the nominal Euro rate is 2-3 times higher than the real one.

Europe is a very strong player on the world stage, the volume of exports and imports has only been growing recently. At the moment (04/2016), the Euro exchange rate is 76 rubles, which is a very high indicator of the importance of Europe in the world. In 2014, we saw the currency peak at 91.1, which is a lot.

Despite the aggressive policy of the ECB, the euro exchange rate will fall to the level of 68-70 rubles, but first it should rise a little more to 94-96 rubles by the end of 2016-beginning of 2017. After that, the rate will only fall, due to the future growth of oil, which now stands at $39-42 per barrel. By September 2017, the cost of oil will be much higher, around $89-103 per barrel. Low prices for oil are associated with the discovery of new fields in the Islamic States, and the active production of shale oil by the Americans. Soon the Islamic States will reduce the volume of oil, and American shale will simply close due to its low liquidity.

The pressure of the ECB on other currencies will not lead to anything good, sooner or later the Euro bubble will burst exactly, just like the dollar will burst.

Based on what I read above, I think that the Euro exchange rate will be equal to 100 rubles by September 2017, and will drop sharply by the end of 2018 to 46-54 rubles.

Similar content