Information Agency Finam.ru (part of the FINAM Group of Companies) interviewed economic experts, finding out their expectations for the ruble exchange rate for August 2017. According to most of the voiced estimates and forecasts, the Russian currency will weaken and end up in the corridor of 59-62 rubles per dollar, reacting to lower oil prices and the introduction of new US sanctions.
Users of the portal Finam.ru agree with the experts - the majority of those who voted expect that the dollar will cost 59.42 rubles.
Vasily Oleinik, an expert at FINAM Group, considers the next package of sanctions against Russia to be the main negative driver for the ruble: "The situation on the Russian debt market remains stable so far, so the worst for the ruble is yet to come. Keep an eye on the mark of 61 rubles per one US dollar. As soon as this milestone is passed, it will immediately be possible to lay on the further growth of the dollar to the levels of 62-65 rubles. The ruble may reach the upper limit of the new range as early as August."
The expert's opinion is shared by Tatyana Evdokimova, an economist at Nordea Bank: "In August, in addition to the situation on the oil market, the following predominantly negative factors will affect the Russian currency: seasonal weakness in the balance of payments, that is, a weakening inflow of foreign exchange key rate Central Bank and, as a result, the continued narrowing of the difference between the yields Russian assets and assets developed countries. Under these conditions, in August the dollar/ruble pair is likely to be in the range of 59.5-61 rubles.
Viktor Markov, senior analyst at Zerich Capital Management believes that the government does not have a special task of weakening or strengthening the ruble, since the ruble exchange rate should contribute to the development of the Russian economy. “At the same time, a weak ruble creates competitive advantages for domestic producers. Therefore, speaking about the revision of the ruble exchange rate towards strengthening, the government knocks down the traditional excitement of the population against the dollar. In August, we can expect the ruble to be around 61 against the dollar,” the expert says.
"It is also important where oil prices will be at this time. Not a single significant weakening of the ruble in the last 12 months has been possible without a decrease in oil prices. Now the outlook on oil for the month ahead is rather neutral, so I think that the ruble will return somewhere in the region of 59 in August, "comments on the situation on foreign exchange market Vladimir Bragin, Director of Financial Markets and Macroeconomics Analysis, Alfa Capital Management Company.
Iskander Lutsko, an analyst at Sberbank CIB, predicts that in early August the reverse conversion of dividends paid by foreign investors into dollars will begin, and the supply of foreign currency will be limited. According to his estimates, the total amount of the reverse conversion will be more than $1.5 billion. "Under such conditions, we should expect a temporary weakening of the ruble, the scale of which will depend on fluctuations in the oil market and other global factors."
Analysts of IC "Veles Capital" do not see clear prerequisites for the strengthening of the ruble above 61 rubles by the end of summer, provided that the geopolitical background remains stable. According to experts, there are no significant reasons for the ruble to return to below 58 against the dollar.
Davydov Denis, chief analyst at Nordea Bank, claims that in August the ruble will be traded without regard to the sanctions topic - the USD/RUB pair may retreat to levels of 60-62 per dollar.
Mikhail Berulava, Chief Specialist operations department for money market Bank Treasury Bank Vozrozhdenie gives a neutral outlook on the ruble exchange rate: " Interest rates, seems to remain unchanged in the coming quarter. Thus, in August we will find ourselves in a market that will be strongly correlated with the situation on the commodity markets against the background of rather low business activity. We expect trading range 58.20-60.20 with periodic attempts to test these boundaries in connection with the publication of data on oil reserves, speeches by regulators or other factors relevant to the dollar / ruble pair.
"During the current week, the ruble exchange rate will remain within 58.8-59.6 rubles per dollar, and already in early August we can see the dollar rise above 60-61 rubles against the backdrop of the imposition of sanctions," Andrey Lyushin, deputy chairman of the board of Loko-Bank, said.
Bushuev Konstantin, Head of Market Analysis at Otkritie Broker, does not exclude the possibility of an increase in global volatility in August, as well as a seasonal reduction in risky investments by global investors in emerging markets. "Under these conditions, USD/RUB may move into the range of 62-64."
Evgeny Volkov, head of the brokerage department at RosEvroBank, doubts that the ruble will be able to overcome the mark of 61 rubles per dollar before August, but after this happens, the road to the range of 62-64 per dollar will be opened, where the national currency will stabilize.
Analysts of the Capital Management Company see the ruble against the US dollar in the corridor of 59-60 rubles. per dollar if oil prices remain in the current range, and sanctions rhetoric is moderate.
"As long as there is relative calm in foreign markets, nothing threatens the ruble. In the event of any force majeure (August is historically rich in such events), the ruble, like other EM currencies, will be hit. But on this moment we do not see any weighty reasons why the ruble may "fall out" of the range of 59-61 rubles in one direction or another," concludes a group of analysts from Bank Saint Petersburg OJSC.
The dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2017 divided analysts into two camps. Some experts assure that the dollar, as in previous years, will lose its value in August, others say what exactly 2017 will be for American currency turning point, and the tradition will be broken.
Indeed, for many years Russians can observe some weakening against the ruble at the end of summer. And no matter how the American currency has behaved since the beginning of the year, it is August that becomes the most unprofitable for it.
However, the current situation in the oil market and in the global economy as a whole makes some experts wonder whether the "August tradition" will be continued, or whether the dollar will behave differently.
The main, according to a preliminary assessment, are several points of the course that we will be able to observe this month.
At the beginning of the month, the dollar exchange rate will be 59.75 rubles per unit.
Expected maximum course currency 60.96 rubles.
The minimum dollar in August will be 59.16 rubles.
At the end of the month, the dollar exchange rate will be about 60.06 rubles per unit of US currency.
The expected fluctuations of the dollar will occur around the rate of 59.98 rubles. In general, they do not portend fatal recessions or rises, the movement will take place strictly within the expected framework.
The main influences on the dollar in August 2017
In addition to the usual decline in the dollar at the end of summer, a number of other factors will affect the US currency. First of all, its fluctuations are of great importance.
Recall that in the last few weeks, the price of oil has been declining. This is happening due to messages from the US, where the tendency to increase the volume of oil production, as well as to the growth of oil reserves, continues. This support has a positive effect on the dollar, but negatively affects the dynamics of oil prices.
The United States speaks of its intention to continue not to reduce the strategic stock of raw materials, which, of course, will be an incentive for growth for the national currency.
If there are no changes in this issue, it is worth saying that the forecasts for an increase in the dollar and its weight will turn out to be justified.
Of course, from such a situation will suffer. In addition, fluctuations in the dollar / ruble pair may be affected by the likely outflow of capital from Russian market. In this case, no tradition will save the ruble from declining at the end of the summer.
The Russian ruble is experiencing a rather serious and tangible rally in mid-July. If at the beginning of the month the exchange rate was about 59 rubles per one US dollar, then later it began to grow quite actively. At some point, it was close to 61 rubles per dollar, as the ruble, unexpectedly for many observers, began to actively return positions.
July 12-13 official exchange rate dollar for tomorrow even ceased to keep pace with the rapidly strengthening ruble and already a couple of hours after the announcement did not reflect what was happening on the stock exchange.
What will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will be the second half of July and August 2017 for it. Of course, all this worries both players in the foreign exchange market and ordinary people. In the end, we all depend on exchange rates, make purchases in online stores, in which prices are directly pegged to the dollar. We all go to ordinary stores, where the percentage of imports is still high, rising in price following the growth of the exchange rate. Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for August 2017 in Russia: experts' forecasts about what will happen to the ruble this summer.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the second half of July 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts
Recent events show that analysts sometimes cannot predict sharp changes in exchange rates. If experts are able to track smooth and predictable exchange rate changes, take into account those external factors that influence what is happening on the stock exchange, then when these factors become very significant, and even multiply each other, the expertise is powerless. This is exactly what happened in the second decade of July.
We cited the forecast made by the experts of the Moscow Agency for Economic Forecasting (APEKON) in June. Analysts then looked at the prospects Russian currency without optimism and talked about the dollar in July, about 63-64 rubles.
A more recent forecast from the same experts, which takes into account the events on the exchange of recent days, is as follows:
- by July 20, the dollar will be near the mark 59.19 rubles,
- the month will end with the dollar exchange rate around 60.56 rubles for one US dollar.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from July 13
If we talk about the forecast of the dollar exchange rate for August 2017 in Russia, the forecasts of the same APEKON experts dated July 13 are as follows:
- August 1 the official dollar exchange rate may be equal to 60.56 rubles, but the very next day the dollar will become much cheaper - up to 59.87 rubles.
- 10th of August USD exchange rate can be expected 61.64 rubles.
- On August 20 there are no forecasts yet, but the expected dynamics of the rate is such that the rate is likely to be close to 62 rubles per dollar.
- By early September in Russia, the dollar exchange rate will be set at about 61.50 rubles.
Within a month, experts expect a rally from 60.56 to 62.42 rubles per dollar.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from July 23
Ten days after the previous dollar exchange rate forecast for August, the opinion of experts, of course, has changed somewhat. The previous forecast was made at the peak of the value of the dollar against the ruble. At the same time, however, experts almost accurately predicted a depreciation by July 20. They talked about 59.19 rubles, in reality the exchange rate was 59.24 rubles. As for August, the updated dollar exchange rate forecast for last month summer from the experts of the APEKON agency is as follows:
- August 1 the dollar will be 59.05 rubles.
- 10th of August the dollar exchange rate in Russia can be 59.46 rubles.
- August 20 analysts are waiting for the course 59.48 rubles.
- By the end of the month rate will drop to 58.66 rubles.
Rally during August to new version analyst forecast - from 57.78 to 59.54 rubles per US dollar.
The news will be supplemented as the forecast is updated by analysts.
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The decisive time for Russia is coming. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the situation on the domestic market, if there is no fall in the cost of petroleum products again. But, not all experts think so, because sanctions play the main role. Talk alone cannot lower the dollar.
Forecasts from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance
Due to events taking place in Europe, prices may drop European currency. State financial analysts build their predictions based on these events. Only the growth of the dollar continues to rise. America has strengthened its political and economic positions. Only Russian sanctions will prevent the use of global credit programs.
The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have officially announced that the domestic economic situation will soon improve. The economy rests on oil exports, and it has become too cheap. The Russian huge power will not be able to get out of the crisis if the cost of oil is sixty dollars.
A large amount of funds began to decrease due to military programs, and their own production ceased to develop. This can lead to catastrophic events.
If sanctions are lifted, issues with neighboring powers are settled, then the forecasts will be real. Perhaps the value of the dollar will be 62 rubles with optimistic assumptions. Large investments Russian economy will not be able to receive, therefore, its own currency will not be backed by anything. A country can experience catastrophic inflation due to emissions.
Pessimistic forecasts for 2017
According to the calculations of the biggest pessimists, the global banking system will fall apart when the price of oil falls, the ruble will fall at a high rate.
The situation could have been different if production had been established. Only there are no opportunities for raising powerful factories and plants.
The world economy has never been in such a precarious position. All forecasts can still be considered premature and false. The ruble is in a difficult position today, and whether it can recover, time will tell. All trading system the world can be renewed. At the beginning of the year 2016, stabilization can be seen if there is a calm global situation.
All production indicators begin to fall, all the necessary products appear, but there is no opportunity to process them. Russian banks cannot receive cash loans due to the imposed restrictions, therefore the country does not receive investments and the ruble suffers from this. It is not known how long the people will be able to endure the unstable situation, but the government is trying to assure everyone that nothing terrible is happening and the situation will be resolved soon. Therefore, there is no cause for concern, even if there is a suitcase with rubles in the closet. Although, who today keeps money in a stocking, because there are banks.
Will the Russian people be able to endure the shocks
The people are already accustomed to such shocks and nothing will surprise them. Whatever circumstances occurred in the country, Russia withstood everything and never lost its strength. The Russian people have a good resistance ability.
Will it become stable National currency depends on events taking place around the world. It is difficult to assess the actions of senior leaders in times of crisis, because they have their own forecasts. And we can say that they are very optimistic, only in reality, China's economic indicators began to decline. But it was this state that recently bought Russian oil. Due to the fact that production in China has decreased in volume, the Chinese no longer need oil in such quantities as before, the country's economic indicators began to decline.
Iran's return to the world oil market has increased competition. IN last years all countries are actively looking for alternative solutions to replenish their fuel reserves. Russia, having annexed the Crimean lands, has amassed many problems for itself. Perhaps this is the main reason for the rise in price of the dollar. If sanctions had not been imposed by Europe and America, it would have been much easier for the country to endure the crisis.
Given the instability of the exchange rate, many citizens are already actively interested in the issue of how much the dollar will cost in August 2017 and how it will be affected by the new US sanctions imposed in August. The latest news about the planned courses can be heard through the media or read online. Back in the middle of summer, the cost of one dollar was fifty-nine rubles, but an active growth in the rate was noticed at the end of July. According to changes in quotations, an increase to sixty-one rubles was revealed, but then a downward trend was observed. What will be the dollar exchange rate in August 2017 is quite difficult to say due to constant changes in the foreign exchange market.
Most often, the value of the currency is interested in citizens whose work is related to financial markets, but for any other resident of the country it is important how much the dollar will cost in August 2017, because the price of foreign trips, cars, apartments, and the cost of goods and services depends on it. Domestic counters are full of imported goods, the cost of which directly depends on what the dollar exchange rate is today.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2017
Modern market conditions do not allow to make a guaranteed forecast of the value of a particular currency, because economic instability cannot give confidence in the future, and any event, even the most unexpected one. May have a dramatic effect on the foreign exchange market. The dollar exchange rate in August 2017 will also depend on economic indicators
, and from political situation (new sanctions), and from many other external and internal factors. By the way, speculators actively use economic instability in their own interests, they begin to acquire currency in order to appreciate the dollar.
Naturally, one should not exclude such important factor, like the cost of oil in the vast international market, because it always affects the price foreign currencies, which is quite understandable. Oil is getting cheaper- the price of the ruble falls, and vice versa, the rise in oil prices stimulates the stabilization and strengthening of the national currency.
According to analysts, the dollar exchange rate in August 2017 should not fall or rise sharply, but it is definitely impossible to talk about this, since any circumstance can radically change the situation. Based on a number of fundamental factors, a smooth change in the course is visible, however, any an important event political or economic nature can dramatically affect the value of currencies.
Until recently, all last news they said that during July one could expect a rate of at least sixty-two, and no more than sixty-four rubles for one dollar, and on the twentieth of the month the value of the currency was fixed at around fifty-nine rubles. Fresh forecast the dollar exchange rate for August 2017 indicates a rise in the price of the currency to sixty-one rubles per one conventional unit.
What dollar exchange rate can be expected in August 2017 - expert's forecast
According to experts, in the first days of the month, the dollar exchange rate in August 2017 will be in the range of sixty-sixty-one rubles, but over time it will fall to fifty-nine rubles and kopecks. But by the tenth day of the last summer month, we can expect a course of 61.64 rubles, which is already the twentieth will be sixty-two rubles. It's too early to talk about autumn, but, according to at least, dramatic changes are not expected in September.
Other experts say that it is possible to increase the price of the dollar to sixty-three rubles in the last month of summer. Although the dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2017 was compiled by professionals, there is no guarantee that it will turn out to be correct, so you should not rely on this data in trading.
