Growing currencies. Which currency is the most stable and stable in the world? So, what currency is the most reliable and what should you store your savings in?

With constant financial instability on a global scale, experts are constantly finding out which currencies are the most stable. As a result, the stability of national currencies is known only for a short time.

Experts believe that today the hardest currency in the world is the American dollar. In the future, this currency will still rise in price, since the market for dollar assets is the most liquid.

If we consider Russian ruble from a historical point of view, it almost always declines against world currencies. Over the past 17 years, the Russian currency has weakened against the dollar by 14 times. It should be noted that the American dollar also topped the list of the most stable currencies in the world.

Reasons for the reliability of a currency

To find out which world currencies are considered the strongest in the world, you need to evaluate them by origin. As you know, the most stable currencies are where the economies are the most developed. Often the size of the country or the standard of living there do not affect the reliability of the currency.

It is worth considering such a factor as the support of money by the country’s gold reserves. The share of a country's gold in the global reserve affects the stability of the currency.

Assessing reliability national currency, it is necessary to take into account the situation with the state of the balance sheet of the country's government. If the government has no debt to the population, then this indicates comparative reliability.

The stability of currencies is influenced by:

• reserves of valuable minerals,
• degree of development of high technologies,
• export volumes,
• relations with other countries.

The inflation rate in the state is decreasing purchasing power currencies, so they reduce their value. An increase in the amount of money in a country directly affects the foreign exchange market.

The country's monetary policy, when emerging from the financial crisis, forces officials to start printing money, which negatively affects the level of the currency exchange rate, putting pressure on it due to an increase in demand for foreign currencies.

Currencies of countries with inflation above normal, in long term will decrease compared to countries with low inflation.

In what currency should you keep your savings?

Japanese yen

The yen is the most stable currency in the world. It is subject to minimal inflation; over the past 70 years there has been no devaluation in the state, which allows us to recommend keeping deposits in yen.

The national currency is also strengthening due to the fact that Japan is one of the key importers of high-tech equipment.

Even if a currency is stable for a long time, this does not mean that it will always be so. For example, the Japanese economy was negatively affected by the nuclear disaster. To correct the situation, banks are buying gold in large quantities, which helps strengthen the local currency.

Currently Japanese yen is not going to reduce its stability. Experts predict that in a short time this currency will strengthen its position and become stronger than the dollar, which is now a reserve currency.

Swiss frank

It is necessary to separately mention Swiss banks, which have long become synonymous with reliability and safety. Almost all aspects of the country’s economic activity are aimed at supporting the stability of the national currency and stabilizing its exchange rate.

The franc is supported by almost half of the gold and foreign exchange reserves, National Bank countries carefully monitor changes in the situation, preventing falls and sharp increases in the currency. The Swiss franc has reigned among the world's most trusted currencies for over 80 years, making it a safe investment.

Euro

IN last years There are many different geopolitical events that one way or another affect the status of the euro as a reliable currency in the world. Despite the decline in quotes, the euro is not going to give up its positions.

Experts believe that in the near future the euro and several other currencies will no longer be so stable. If earlier the European Union included states with developed economies, now there is a visible tendency for developing countries to join the EU.

There is a need to take measures within the structure to increase the level of the economy of developing countries to the required level. A strategy should be defined to ensure the stability of national currencies.

We should not expect a collapse of the EU economy and a dramatic depreciation of the euro in the near future.

Large investors advise not to rush to transfer their funds into euros; this currency is currently not going through the best period. At the same time, states that are not part of large structures react sharply to crises in the world, which means that their currencies do not behave very predictably.

U.S. dollar

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency, so people will always invest their funds in dollars. However, the US now has a fairly large external debt, which is reflected in various economic spheres. Despite the problems, the dollar remains the most reliable currency.

The stability of the American dollar is largely due to the fact that the national bank begins to print additional money at certain intervals. But, from year to year, the predicted collapse does not occur, and people still prefer to keep their savings in US dollars.

Norwegian and Swedish krona, Australian dollar

Norwegian money is a stable currency, which is considered one of the strongest. For a long time, Norway has developed its economy with a focus on oil production, and its value, as we know, can fluctuate greatly.

Over time, changes occurred in the situation, the crown began to strengthen, and managed to accumulate quite significant gold and foreign exchange reserves during the export of gas and oil. This currency was not affected by the decline in oil prices.

The Swedes took advantage of the example of the more economically successful Switzerland. Officials did not make a decision on printing banknotes; instead, banks began to focus on stabilizing the country’s currency exchange rate.

Thanks to efforts to improve economic policy, the national bank does not allow the krone to be subject to devaluation and inflation, which makes it possible to recommend this currency for savings.

You can also store money in dollar equivalent, but in electronic format. But we must remember that there are certain...

The Australian dollar is considered a stable global currency. This can be explained, first of all, by the geographical location of the country. Australia is a mainland state that never interferes in world conflicts and is loyal to any political situation.

Australia is a country with consistently low unemployment rates. Thus, Australian dollar recognized as attractive to investors.

Stability of the Russian ruble

Public policy should work to:

• reducing inflation,
• development of national market infrastructure,
• lowering bank rates,
• increasing the number of direct investments,
• attracting internal savings,
• availability of credit,
• stabilization of the economy,
• return of national capital.

There are some discrepancies among expert opinions, but a general trend can still be noticed. In this article, we will consider what is meant by a stable and stable currency, as well as the money of which countries belong to it.

Why do currency values ​​vary?

Currency values different countries cannot be the same, since all states have their own special features and characteristics. These include: geographical location, availability of support in the form of a reserve or gold and foreign exchange fund, status on the world stage, competent economic management.

So, the more developed the country, the better and better the government, the better the national body responsible for the financial situation copes with its tasks in economic field, the stronger and more stable the currency of this state will be.

How is the “reliability” of a currency determined?

Many people are interested in what other criteria are used to determine the most stable currency. It is necessary to conduct a small analysis of the main indicators of the state, including:

• production natural resources and raw materials;
• volume of imports and exports;
• development of basic modern sectors industry (oil, gas, information technology).

Having assessed the country according to the proposed criteria, we can draw a conclusion about the reliability of its currency. It is worth clarifying that stability does not mean high cost. Thus, the most reliable monetary unit is not always the most expensive currency.

The most stable currencies and their descriptions

Let's consider which countries' national currencies are considered stable and reliable. It should be noted that the American dollar is not included in the ranking: despite its popularity and widespread use when paying for goods and services, due to constant crises and problems in the economy, it is not included in this top.

Swiss frank

The most reliable currency on this moment is the monetary unit of Switzerland. The country behaves wisely economically, supporting in every possible way. It is backed by 40% gold and foreign exchange reserves. The National Bank does not allow devaluation, as well as sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate of its currency. Therefore, despite the small number of bonds, it is most profitable to invest in francs.

Euro

One of the most common currencies in the world is . Despite the ambiguous economic situation in European countries, as well as the enormous difference in the situation of some of them, the value of this monetary unit, although sometimes reduced, still remains quite high and stable. We can say for sure that the euro will definitely not lose its status as a reserve currency.

Japanese yen

There are good reasons to choose the currency for your deposit. First of all, the low level of inflation (no more than 1%), also the absence of denomination. Over the past 65 years it has never happened. It should be understood that the Japanese economy is based on high technology, developments in the field of programming, and in the last two to three years the demand for them has decreased. It's connected with financial crises and problems in many countries around the world. However, the yen exchange rate is now stable, and there is no reason to doubt its reliability.

Swedish krona

It is considered one of the most reliable national currencies. In some countries, the economy is supported by constantly issuing new money, but this approach is not used in Sweden. Its policy is aimed at preserving and maintaining the current course. This is what is considered an advantage of the crown, which does not provide a chance for devaluation or increased inflation.

Norwegian krone

The first time the national currency of Norway was recognized as stable and reliable was in 2008. After this, the rate of increase in its value was not too fast, but confident: upward trends were visible. This has led to it now being one of the top 5 most stable currencies. You must understand that the economy of this northern country is based on oil, so some fluctuations are present and observed almost always. However, Norway was able to accumulate an impressive reserve fund, which keeps the crown at one of the highest rates against the American currency.

Australian dollar

The reasons why it is considered one of the stable national currencies are simple: its geographical location on the map. It is located at a distance from all armed conflicts, and also tries to maintain neutrality in relations with all other countries. Low unemployment is also a factor. That is why investments in the Australian dollar are recognized by experts as economically profitable and justified. It should be added that the country lives off the export of natural resources, so minor fluctuations in the exchange rate are possible.

GBP

The official currency of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is indeed very stable. Its exchange rate is usually considered unfair and overpriced by tourists, but from the point of view of investments and investments, it is quite stable and profitable. It has also seen a surge in popularity over the past decade: in 2006, for example, it became the third most widely used reserve currency.

Canadian dollar

This currency, as the name suggests, is common in Canada. About ten years ago, it ranked seventh among the most actively traded currencies on the money markets. At the moment, it is believed that the American economy is most affected, this is due to its proximity to the United States geographically, as well as the large volume of imports from neighboring country. Moreover, now exchange rate in the state it is considered free-floating, and directly depends on the level of inflation.

Hong Kong dollar

This currency is common in Hong Kong. For about 30 years, its exchange rate has been pegged to the US dollar. For this purpose, the so-called Monetary Board regime is used. With it, relative fluctuations are possible, but they must occur within established limits: no more than 7-8 per 1 US dollar.

Kuwaiti dinar

The national currency of one of the Middle Eastern monarchies. The economy of this country is thriving mainly due to active oil production and export. If we talk about the exchange rate of this monetary unit in relation to the US dollar, then at the moment 1 Kuwaiti dinar is equal to 3.3 dollars. However, it is, of course, not as popular among investors as the American currency.

If a person wants to make a contribution and ensure its safety in financially, he must remember that only reliable currencies are least affected by crises. Usually we're talking about O cash strong and developed economic states. However, as already mentioned, they are not considered good choice, because the financial position America is not so stable and its gold reserves are small. Therefore, it is better to pay attention to the above rating in order to choose a truly stable currency for deposit.

Every day, investors analyze currency quotes charts, trying to figure out which currency is the hardest and most stable. What is it for? It’s very simple - to ensure peace of mind for the safety of your own savings. For what reasons does one currency become stable, while another cannot resist the waves sweeping across the planet? economic crises? And what monetary units are the most reliable in the world?

Why does a currency become reliable?

Before you find out which currency is considered the most stable in the world, it is worth deciding for what reasons it becomes strong and reliable. The answer is quite simple: stable currencies belong to countries with the best developed economies. At the same time, the area of ​​the country's territory or the standard of living of its population may not matter at all. Another important factor is the support of the currency by the state’s gold reserves: the share of the state’s gold in the global reserve determines its stability.

So, what currency is the most reliable and in what should you keep your savings?

Asian " economic miracle”, and indeed, it can be called a miracle: the yen has long been considered one of the most stable in the world. Minimal inflation, as well as the fact that there has been no devaluation in the country over the past seven decades, allows full confidence advise keeping your savings in yen. The national currency is also strengthened by the fact that Japan is one of the world's main importers of high-tech equipment.

However, even the quietest harbor can be overtaken by a storm. The Japanese economy was greatly affected by the nuclear disaster. To correct the situation, banks are buying gold, which will support the national currency. However, the Japanese yen is currently the most stable currency. And analysts predict that in the near future the yen will become much stronger than the dollar, which is currently the reserve currency.

Probably everyone knows the expressions “reliable, like a Swiss watch” or “reliable, like Swiss bank" About Swiss frank we can say the same thing: almost all economic activity the state is aimed at maintaining a stable and fairly stable exchange rate of the national currency. The franc is backed by gold and foreign exchange reserves by almost 50%, and the state’s national bank does not allow either a fall or a sharp rise in the exchange rate.

Well, if we add that the Swiss franc tops the rating of the most reliable monetary units world for more than eight decades, it becomes clear where to invest your savings.

Of course, recent geopolitical events have somewhat shaken the status of the euro as one of the world's hardest currencies. Nevertheless, even despite the decline in quotations, the euro does not intend to lose its status.

However, the euro may face new challenges in the near future. For example, if previously only countries with developed economies joined the European Union, recently developing countries. And this means only one thing: the “old-timers” of the European Union will have to take on the difficult task of raising the economy of the “new recruits” to the appropriate level. In addition, the migration crisis is affecting the euro exchange rate.

True, there is no point in waiting for a collapse of the EU economy, and therefore a significant depreciation of the euro: the maximum to which this currency can fall is one dollar.

Nevertheless, eminent investors recommend not to rush to convert their savings into euros, which is currently experiencing difficult times. better times. In addition, countries that are not members of large associations react less to global crises, which means their currencies behave in a more predictable manner.

The dollar is a global reserve currency, which means people will never stop investing their savings in it. Although the United States has a fairly large national debt, and many economic areas of the country are stagnating, the dollar is not losing ground. True, there is one very significant “but”: the stability of the dollar is largely due to the fact that the national bank periodically includes “ printing press" However, the annually predicted “crash” never happens, and many people continue to keep their savings in American currency.

The Norwegian currency is one of the “strongest” currencies of the European Union. This was not always the case, because for a long time Norway, in its foreign economic activity focused on oil production, and the cost of hydrocarbons, as is known, can fluctuate. However, over time, the situation changed, and the crown took the lead, having managed to accumulate quite impressive gold and foreign exchange reserves over the years of exporting oil and gas. Even the current decline in oil prices has not affected the krona, which says a lot.

The Swedes decided to take advantage of the example of economically prosperous Switzerland. Instead of printing new banknotes, Swedish banks are focusing on maintaining the exchange rate of the national currency. Thanks to the developed economic policy, the national bank does not give the crown any chance of inflation and devaluation, which allows us to safely recommend keeping savings in this currency.

For what reasons is the Australian dollar considered one of the most stable currencies in the world? It's very simple: Australia's geographical location played a role in this. This mainland state does not interfere in geopolitical conflicts and is neutral towards all existing communities. In addition, Australia has a fairly low unemployment rate. This is why the Australian dollar is so attractive to investors.

It is worth adding that the Australian economy is largely based on the export of minerals. And since an impressive share of raw materials on the world market comes from this continent, it becomes quite convenient to pay Australia with its national currency.

Achieving stability of a national currency is not easy: to do this, you need to take into account a huge number of different factors and build the right relationships with partner countries. Unfortunately, residents of Russia can only hope that someday the ruble will be included in the list of the most stable world currencies.

In Russia, the mantra that oil prices keep the dollar afloat has ceased to work. However, this is not the case and the ruble is still falling, despite injections into banks, rising oil prices and maximum savings. There are several reasons, but let's take it in order.

1. Why oil is rising

The reason for the rise in oil prices is primarily due to tensions in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the OPEC cartel. As soon as oil production in Libya and Iraq is restored and oil pipelines are operational, oil prices drop. In addition, if the price of oil exceeds $55 per barrel (but for Brend and WTI grades), shale oil production immediately increases and a strong surplus occurs. Then comes the drop in oil prices to 45, after which the number of drilling rigs in the US decreases significantly. Thus, the price balance of oil is in the range of 45-50 dollars per Brend. However, the bar is falling lower and lower. And shale oil is becoming cheaper and there is a revolution of green energy and electric transport in the world. In 5-6 years, the cost of oil will not exceed $25, experts say.

2. But if oil is high now, then why is the ruble falling?

There are several reasons here. First of all, you need to understand that Rosneft is now trying to keep dollars outside of Russia and not pay them to the budget. Many say that “the rats are getting ready to jump ship” in anticipation of more serious sanctions and are trying to hide dividends on the side. In addition, Russian petrodollars are immediately invested in other projects that are safe from sanctions. However, for Rosneft this is not good, but bad. By showing unprofitability for the budget in Russia, the corporation reduces its market value and in the event of a reduction in the world price of oil, Rosneft may simply go bankrupt and then go under the hammer, or sell off most of its assets for next to nothing. We won’t say what this will lead to for the Russian economy—it could lead to a state default.

The second reason is the complete catastrophe of the Russian banking system. The fact is that Russian banks cannot refinance in the West, and therefore gradually burst. But the Russian government has allegedly found a way out - it is recapitalizing problem banks in rubles. This ultimately leads to the fact that the real value of the ruble is one, and the official value, due to strict control, is different. As a result, currency is washed out of banks (now it is in commercial banks no more than 2-3 billion in accounts). Thus, since 2017, the Russian government has been forced to pump foreign currency into controlled banks, but how much is needed is impossible to calculate with accuracy. Maybe 10, or 15 billion dollars. As a result, more than 70% of the banking sector in the Russian Federation is now under state control, which is under manual control. And only 30% form free demand for currency.

The third reason is that Russia pays external debts, while forgiving debts of a number of “friendly” states. The debts of the “brotherly peoples” of Russia appear in the form of supplies of Russian weapons, materials, loans (in foreign currency), etc. And this money flows out of the budget. At the same time, the gap in non-payments increased significantly in 2016-2017 due to assistance provided to various Venezuelans, Syria and the DPR.

The fourth reason is the concealment of foreign exchange earnings. You may have noticed that large banks And in Russia, companies go bankrupt or barely break even, but the number of billionaires in the Russian Federation is growing? That's right - business, which is still at least partially independent of Putin and his entourage, is trying to move currency and assets abroad, away from the “Ozero cooperative”, experiencing pressure from the state, and also fearing sanctions. And sanctions will only increase from the end of 2017. There is a colossal outflow of capital.

3. How dangerous are sanctions for Russia?

Sanctions are the reason for what is happening above. They are gradually shrinking the Russian economy. Especially it concerns foreign trade and financial market. The compression is such that now the basis of the Russian economy is made up of state-owned companies (more than 60%) and banks. However, things are no longer easy for them either. There are no loans, and there’s nowhere to get them from, market price companies are falling, domestic consumption is falling, although taxes are rising. Industrial production is collapsing. Sanctions are a long game by the West, in the expectation that in 2-3 years the Russian economy will completely collapse.

4. But Russia has friends. China, for example, they will help.

Russia has no friends except Zimbabwe, North Korea, Sudan and Cuba. Other countries, including China, do not benefit from a serious violation of sanctions, because from November 2017 even companies in third countries may be subject to sanctions. And China’s trade turnover with the United States is 12 times greater than with the Russian Federation.

According to analysts, the ruble will continue to fall, accelerating. The fact is that the state economy is extremely slow, and there is less and less private business in Russia. Over time, the fall of the ruble will become chaotic and the Russian government will be forced to limit the sale of currency in Russia and completely switch to rubles. And this will lead to an even greater separation from the world economy - the ruble will become inconvertible. When will this happen? The Russian government believes that in mid-2018. Analysts believe that sooner - at the beginning of 2018. A currency ban in Russia will lead to a fall in the ruble to a rate of 1 to 125, and then 1 to 500, after which, according to a number of analysts - for example Stepan Demura, a redenomination will occur as under Khrushchev in 1961 , or under Yeltsin. The ruble will be lowered by 10 or 100 times. After 60, the ruble will immediately fall to 97, says Stepan Demura.

6. But how to protect yourself?

The question is rhetorical - no way. In Russia, a mechanism for self-destruction of the economy was launched back in 2014. The flywheel is huge and it will stop only when the sanctions are lifted. And this will probably not happen soon - probably after Putin’s death or his elimination, as well as the elimination of his entourage. Ukraine will also need to return Crimea, Donbass and withdraw troops from Syria, Transnistria, Abkhazia and North Ossetia. Thus, Russians need to prepare to live for several years under sanctions in a country that will increasingly resemble North Korea, with its Juche ideas and bonds. At this time, the rest of the world will develop and move forward. During this period, you can either leave the country or figure out how to survive with a 50% drop in the economy, censorship and totalitarian governance.

7. So we need to change power?

No - you need to change your thinking. Because if you change power, but keep the “braces”, “getting up from your knees”, “international leadership” and “the fight against NATO and their hangers-on”, you will most likely return to the same circle of Russian hell, but on a smaller territory and with a smaller economy. It is time to abandon the imperial polity and develop the nation state and cooperation.

8. But the nation state is a renunciation of federalism. This means that many territories will go away - this is the collapse of Russia.

No. Firstly, these territories will fall off sooner or later anyway. There are no more empires in the world except Russia. Secondly, this path implies integration into the financial, economic, cultural and social mechanisms of the global market. You can keep the best that you have, giving up the worst and unprofitable. Good example- Great Britain, which controlled half the world, but gave up everything, because it would have lost everything anyway, voluntarily or not.

For Russian currency it's time for calm. Despite the pessimistic forecasts of last year, the dollar is trading at 65.59 rubles. Rising oil prices, as well as the US Federal Reserve's decision not to touch the discount rate, are helping the Russian currency strengthen. However, the precarious balance could be disrupted at any moment by new sanctions from Washington. In this case, the dollar exchange rate will jump to 70-72 rubles, experts say.

Despite all the pessimistic forecasts, the Russian currency in 2019 did not fall to the level of 70 rubles per American dollar - the level for the American currency that experts so readily predicted at the end of 2018.

On currency trading Now there are multidirectional reasons at work, experts explain.

One of the positive factors for the ruble is rising oil prices. As of Monday, February 4, the price of Brent futures for delivery in April 2019 fluctuates around $62-63 per barrel.

In the near future, quotes for “black gold” may return to levels of $65-75, says Vasily Karpunin, head of the experts department stock market"BCS Broker".

“The continued recovery in oil prices is possible against the backdrop of a decline in drilling activity in the United States, a collective reduction in production by OPEC countries, as well as due to the approaching end of the period for which an exception was made for buyers of Iranian oil (until May),” the expert says.

Let us recall that last year the US administration decided that American sanctions against Iran would not apply to eight countries, allowing them to continue purchasing Iranian oil. These include Italy, India, Japan and South Korea.

In addition to the rising price of oil, another positive factor for the ruble is the decision of the US Federal Reserve to leave the discount rate at the same level. Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would keep the interest rate at 2.25% to 2.5% per annum.

“The US Federal Reserve clearly indicated the increased likelihood of terminating the program of targeted increases in the discount rate: now the main Central Bank of the world has promised to focus on actual macro statistics, that is, all other things being equal high yields instruments in the dollar zone are no longer worth waiting for. The volume of the Fed’s balance sheet will also remain high, and the program for reducing it will also be paused,” explains Vladimir Rozhankovsky, an expert at the International Financial Center.

According to him, in particular, this increases interest in emerging market assets.

After the Fed's decision, the acute risks of global financial markets putting pressure on raw material prices, stock indices and developing currencies in general, agrees Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade Group.

The Federal Reserve’s refusal to aggressively raise rates means maintaining relatively inexpensive lending in dollars, which makes it possible for a calmer development of the situation in the global economy and reduces the risks of collapses and defaults in the markets.

Oil also received support from such changes and may well rise to $65 and higher, Pushkarev adds.

At the same time, according to Karpunin, it is necessary to remember the budget rule, according to which the Central Bank will continue to buy currency for open market.

Since 2019, the regulator has resumed foreign currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance on the open market, which were interrupted in August of this year due to increased volatility of the ruble exchange rate amid the threat of new sanctions. Until February 6, the regulator will allocate 265.8 billion rubles for these purposes. From February, the Central Bank will also begin making deferred purchases.

“There will be more operations the higher oil prices rise. This mechanism reduces the potential volatility of the ruble due to fluctuations in oil prices,” says Karpunin.

Although the domestic currency made attempts to strengthen last week, it has not yet been able to maintain its position, says Andrey Lyushin, deputy chairman of the board of Loko Bank.

The most likely scenario at the moment is a decrease in the value of the Russian currency to 65.8 rubles per dollar, says Mikhail Mashchenko, an analyst at the social network for investors eToro in Russia and the CIS. Moreover, if there are no more reasons for optimism, then by the end of March the rate may fall to 66.5 rubles per American currency, he adds.