After the denomination for 1 Belarusian ruble, 32 Russian rubles will have to be paid immediately. What, Belarusian currency, after "cutting off" four zeros, has it become stronger? Answered by Konstantin Korishchenko, Professor of the Faculty of Finance and Banking, RANEPA

On July 1, a denomination took place in Belarus. The authorities "cut off" 4 zeros at once. We decided to find out from Konstantin Korishchenko, professor at the Faculty of Finance and Banking, RANEPA, former deputy chairman Central Bank of Russia, why it was necessary and what it will give for the economy.

The transition period will take a whole five years

On July 1, the denomination of the national currency starts in Belarus. You should not be afraid of the overseas word - at its core, this is an exclusively technical operation. Old-style banknotes are being replaced with new banknotes. At the same time, four zeros will disappear from them.

Why was denomination necessary? Belarusian ruble?

In short, to simplify the economic turnover. Both in practical life and in calculations, extra numbers are an additional risk of making a mistake. That's why a large number of zeros created a certain discomfort and interfered economic activity states. This is the main goal of any denomination. A side effect is the strengthening of the national currency rate in the state. The denomination increases its stability, removes the excess money supply from circulation.

- Why did you decide to cut exactly 4 zeros on banknotes, and not, say, 3?

At one time in Russia they reduced 3 zeros - then there was such a scale of prices that it was more convenient to use a ratio of 1000: 1. Well, in Belarus, the scale of prices is different, respectively, they adjusted to it.

- For 1 dollar now they give 2 Belarusian rubles. Is the Belarusian ruble stronger than the Russian one now?

- Just because a truck and a convertible are called "cars" it doesn't follow that they drive the same way or have the same power. The Belarusian ruble is not equal to the Russian ruble, so it is incorrect to compare their pairs with the dollar. Although this is a common misconception.

- Maybe now in Russia to carry out a denomination?

And this, by the way, is a perfectly reasonable question. I think the authorities can come to this. For example, for a convenient calculation system, it is better when exchange rates in pairs are within 100. That is, if a dollar or euro, for example, will cost more than 100 rubles, this will be a reason for a denomination. Although there is an example of Japan, where more than 100 yen is given for a dollar, and the government does not change anything. But this is rather an exception.

NEW DEAL

1 US dollar - 2.0053;

1 euro - 2.2210;

100 Russian rubles - 3.1212;

1 lev - 1.1366;

100 hryvnia - 8.0647;

10 zł - 5.0248;

100 yen - 1.9523;

10 chinese yuan - 3,0167;

10 Turkish lira - 6.9252;

£1 - 2.6880;

100 Czech crowns - 8,2059;

1 Swiss frank - 2,0467.

Prepared by Alexandra Kozlova

The Russian ruble is declining against all currencies, including against the Belarusian ruble, Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari, notes.

According to him, main reason falling currency of the Russian Federation - US sanctions. The expert recalls that in April the United States imposed sanctions against 24 major Russian businessmen and officials. Since yesterday, sanctions have been in place due to the poisoning of the Skripals.

These purely Russian cases were superimposed on the currency crisis in almost all developing countries ah: there was a serious fall in the Turkish lira and the Brazilian real, backfired in Mexico, in South Africa, - states the economist.

The expert emphasizes that almost all currencies of the CIS states are declining against the dollar. However, the Belarusian ruble looks even better currencies other developing countries where there are foreign investors.

But not because we have such a strong ruble or a strong economy. It’s just that there is practically no public debt denominated in Belarusian rubles on the market foreign investors. They didn’t come here, so they don’t leave here, - the analyst notes.

Apparently, the current US sanctions against Russia are not the last ones. On August 21, Congress held hearings on new anti-Russian sanctions related to Crimea, Donbass, and election interference in the United States.

In the future, everything is not very simple. For Belarusian economy the consequences of the tax maneuver can be very painful. The issue of duty-free deliveries of oil products to Belarus has aggravated, - says the economist.

Also, according to him, it is not yet clear whether the official Minsk will receive a Russian state loan of $1 billion.

According to the expert, if the government of Belarus resolves oil issues with the Russian Federation and agrees on a loan, then a weakening Russian ruble will fall to the Belarusian.

If we do not solve our problems, the Belarusian and Russian rubles will fall simultaneously. And the dollar will grow stronger against the Belarusian ruble, Vadim Iosub predicts.

He believes that for the time being it is not worth making changes in the currency basket of Belarus, where today 50% is the Russian ruble, 30% - the dollar and 20% - the euro.

While almost 50% of Belarusian exports go to Russia, it is quite reasonable that the Russian ruble also occupies half of the basket. If the geographic and monetary structure of our exports seriously changes, then only then will there be a reason to talk about a change in the currency basket, - believes a senior analyst at Alpari.

The economist recalls that the leadership of Belarus talks a lot about the need to diversify the geography of exports, but in reality nothing changes: Russia remains the main sales market.

This addiction is harmful and painful. hit on Russian economy automatically means a decrease in demand for Belarusian products, Vadim Iosub emphasizes.

Due to what the Belarusian ruble wins back its positions? AiF asked to answer this question candidate economic sciences Elena SEMAK.

Semak Elena Adolfovna - Associate Professor of the Department of International economic relations faculty international relations Belarusian State University.

On the exchange rate(i.e., the ratio of the price of the national currency to a foreign one, for example, the Belarusian ruble to the dollar) is influenced by supply and demand for foreign currency. Dollars and euros are needed by enterprises that buy goods for import, as well as by the population - for tourist trips abroad or for the purpose of savings. At the beginning of 2017, the volumes of foreign currency purchased by these two categories decreased.

According to National Bank, in January current year business entities - residents of the Republic of Belarus, bought more currencies than they sold, the difference amounted to 13.1 million USD. This is much less than in January last year, when this excess amounted to 198.2 million USD.

At the same time, our exporters increased their revenue. Compared to January 2016, sales volume foreign exchange by Belarusian enterprises in the first month of 2017 increased by 262.7 million USD. According to the expert, this indicates a possible improvement in the state of the Belarusian foreign trade.

Thus, the first factor that influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble was an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for foreign currencies on the part of business. It is also necessary to add: Belarusian enterprises prefer to buy foreign currency from banks (on the over-the-counter market). On Belorusskaya currency and stock exchange(BCSE) they purchased only 14.3 million USD, while outside the exchange - 1,278.1 million USD. Namely, exchange rates are set on the stock exchange.

The second factor, according to the expert, was high level expenses of the population during the holidays (dollars were exchanged for rubles, for which goods for a feast were then bought), the third factor is the low level of income, which forces the population to spend foreign currency savings.

Another aspect is political: towards a sharp weakening European currency the BCSE was driven, to a large extent, by the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar in the Forex market. This is due to fears that Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front, could take the presidency of France, which, if she wins, could withdraw the country from the euro zone and initiate the return of the franc as the national currency of France.

According to Elena Semak, one should not forget that the Russian ruble is strengthening at the same time.

The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is determined by the amount (basket) of 3 currencies: euro, dollar, Russian ruble. And the share of the latter in the basket is 50%. Most of our foreign trade is connected with Russia, and in relation to the Russian ruble, the Belarusian ruble is weakening.

What is the forecast?

Forecasting further changes in the exchange rate is a very difficult task. At the end of 2016, the majority of economists expected, at best, a gradual depreciation of the Belarusian ruble at the same pace as inflation. The further forecast of the development of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate depends on the success of our foreign trade, the growth or decline in household incomes and fluctuations in foreign exchange rates on world markets.

Summary

The following main factors influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble:

1. Increase offers of foreign currency in Belarus (due to various reasons: the success of Belarusian exporters, the still low level of income of the population (people are forced to spend foreign currency savings), etc.). When supply is greater than demand, the cost of a good ( dollars and euros are also a kind of "commodity". - Note.) falls.
2. decline business demand for dollars and euros;
3. Seasonal factor (the population spends more currency during the New Year holidays).

The trend towards the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble continues.

In the first week of the new year, the Belarusian ruble fell for three sessions in a row against the US dollar, the euro and the Russian ruble. Why and how long it will last, economist Boris Zheliba told Tomorrow of your country.

- If the demand for a currency on the stock exchange exceeds its supply, then the Belarusian ruble weakens,- says the expert. - But this ratio is influenced by many factors. There was some retreat from the trend towards the weakening of the Belarusian ruble. Before the new year, for some reason, it strengthened for several days. Apparently, the supply of currency on the market somewhat exceeded demand.

This process may interfere National Bank by conducting foreign exchange interventions. If there is not enough currency, he throws it up for auction from gold and foreign exchange reserves. But if the National Bank throws in some volumes of currencies, then they are insignificant. However, it should be borne in mind that the general trend towards the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble continues. Creep, slowly but surely.

This was shown by the first auction after the New Year. But the main thing is not to be sharp fluctuations, reaching a landslide devaluation, which all Belarusians are afraid of.

Who benefits from devaluation, even creeping?

- If weakened National currency, this is beneficial for exporters and not beneficial for importers, since they have to buy the same dollars or euros at a higher rate. But since the devaluation is still smooth, its impact is not significant, - the expert thinks. - Naturally, ruble denominated depositors and the National Bank's campaigning to keep deposits in Belarusian rubles suffer from the weakening of the ruble, since the majority of the population (about three-quarters), having gained bitter experience, prefers to keep their savings in dollars or euros.

What will influence the behavior of the Belarusian ruble in the future?

- The main point is the prudent monetary policy of our National Bank, says Boris Zheliba. - money supply albeit at a relatively slow rate, it is growing. And the more rubles, the more expensive the dollar will cost. This is an internal factor, but external factors also play a role. Crucial among them is the export of petroleum products. It makes up about a third of the currency of all exports, and is influenced by world oil prices. They are now favorable, having reached their maximum for many years - up to $68 per barrel of Brent. This is beneficial primarily to Russia, but also to Belarus. But maybe it’s for the best that the influence of this oil and gas factor is blocked by other reasons, including how efficiently the National economy. But here Belarus and Russia have nothing to boast of.

But the whole basket of currencies is getting more expensive. Why?

- The Russian ruble is very susceptible to the growth of world prices for oil and gas. The higher they are, the more expensive the Russian ruble, - explains the economist. - This is reflected in Russia to a greater extent than in Belarus, since Russia is more subject to the oil curse, since it received all the excess profits from oil exports. As long as it stays that way.

As for the growth of the Russian ruble against the Belarusian one, Belarusian exports are very dependent on Russian market. We are talking a lot about the diversification of Belarusian exports and imports, but this is not happening. Hence the trend - if the Russian ruble is more dependent on oil and gas prices, then it will strengthen, including against the Belarusian ruble. In this regard, we are less dependent on external factor, therefore, we are weakening towards Russia.

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