Vadim Iosub is a senior analyst at Alpari. Specialist in methods of analysis in financial markets and trust management investment portfolios on the stock market. Since 1998 he has been working for Forex market, since 2005 - on the Russian stock market.
Yesterday, the Belarusian currency crossed the mark of 2.1 rubles against the dollar, and this has become quite an important and, to say the least, a little disturbing event for many. Let's see what is happening, are there any reasons for concern and what can be expected from quotes in the near future. To tell the truth, a real currency detective has been played out, which has no obvious outcome yet, but a competent economist is quite capable of identifying the main suspect.
In recent weeks, I have had to answer the questions “What is happening to our currency?” not only from the side of the Belarusians. Every day, Russians are interested in what is happening with their ruble. Also daily calls from Ukraine: "The hryvnia is falling - why?" They also write from Kazakhstan: “How long will our tenge become cheaper?” It is significant that everyone is interested in this at the same time, and one can immediately note that there is nothing surprising in what is happening with the Belarusian ruble (although there is one intrigue - but more on that later).
And what is happening on the world currency arena, in fact, is this: the dollar is growing significantly against all currencies of countries that are commonly called "developing" or "with emerging economies."
We can look at the bigger picture, covering the whole world, and then we will see that in the last week the collapses in the exchange rate national currency observed in Turkey, Argentina, India, Iran, South Africa. And just yesterday or the day before yesterday, the dollar rates in Iran and India set historic highs.
Taking into account today's trading since the beginning of the year, the dollar has added about 7% to the Belarusian ruble, but in Turkey and Argentina there were daily depreciations of the national currency against the dollar, exceeding our nine-month indicator. In addition, we note that the trend for the growth of the dollar against the hryvnia, tenge and the Russian ruble is much more pronounced.
In fact, we are witnessing a global redistribution of investments. This is not a unique phenomenon, it has happened before and will definitely happen more than once in the future. Today, according to global investors, investments in developing countries have become more risky, at the same time, the benefits from investing in countries with developed economies have increased (in particular, this is due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve has raised and plans to further raise its rates) .
Investor money is flowing from developing countries to advanced economies. This process occurs as a result of a trigger being fired, followed by an avalanche effect. The American economic sanctions in relation to Russia, Turkey, the growth of duties on metals supplied from the same Turkey, the threat of default in Argentina. In Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus there are no such specific reasons, we can say that we just got “under distribution” on a tangent, with all the rest developing countries"for company".
Once again: this is a global process, we are not the main participant in it and, what is especially important, we are far from being the main victim.
Is it possible to say that Belarus holds a blow well? Personally, I would suggest that this could be said before August. At the end of the summer foreign exchange market interesting changes began to take place in the country, which most of the inhabitants, quite likely, would not attach importance to.
I suggest looking not at the course dynamics Belarusian ruble to the dollar, but on how our currency is changing in relation to the Russian ruble.
Since the beginning of this year, for seven and a half months in a row, the Belarusian ruble has generally been strengthening, the value of the currency basket has been declining. When during this period in Russia there were repeated large jumps in the exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar, the Belarusian ruble reacted in a standard way: the dollar grew against the Belarusian ruble, but at the same time the Russian currency became cheaper relative to ours.
This situation has changed since the end of August. For two weeks already, the Belarusian ruble has been depreciating simultaneously against the dollar, the euro and the Russian ruble. The value of the currency basket is growing, and our currency is weakening. At the same time, it is important that the last few days the Russian ruble has been feeling very bad, but even in this situation it is growing in relation to ours.
We're getting to the heart of the intrigue. Traditionally, it is considered that last years in our country there is a market exchange rate formation: fluctuations in the value of the national currency depend on the ratio of supply and demand. In accordance with this, it can be assumed that around August 25, demand for all major foreign currencies sharply increased in Belarus. And here it must be said that the subject that created this demand is not very clear, there is simply no reason for such interest. I doubt very much that this is the population or Belarusian enterprises.
But just like that, nothing happens in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, we can assume that our National Bank, which, buying or selling currency, has the right not to publish information about the transactions. We will be able to find out indirectly that they were held later, noticing, for example, that the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves have grown.
What is wrong with the fact that the state buys foreign currency and replenishes gold reserves? What is happening today with the Belarusian ruble and how it compares with the currency basket is reminiscent of a sharp change in trend. Our National Bank since the beginning of 2015 in speeches and documents declaring the main directions monetary policy for a year, declares that he does not interfere in exchange rate formation and does not determine trends, but is only ready to smooth sharp fluctuations exchange rates during the day.
Meanwhile, recently, when the Belarusian ruble was strengthening against the Russian one, many representatives of domestic industry and agriculture, and even the relevant ministries up to their superiors, complained that this state of affairs hinders trade with Russia and makes our products less competitive in the main economic market. partner. They asked to influence the situation, to intervene.
Literally at the end of August, one of the "tops" of the National Bank once again said: we will not artificially devalue the Belarusian ruble. Not only that, he argued and detailed explained why. Obviously, this will lead to a worsening of the economic situation, the dollar may grow even stronger. State external debt predominantly dollar, many enterprises have dollar loans - it turns out that in the end no one will benefit from artificial devaluation. The growth of the dollar by only 1% leads to the fact that enterprises and the state will have to spend a total of 560 million rubles more on debt servicing!
Unfortunately, judging by indirect signs, for the last two weeks the National Bank has begun to artificially weaken the Belarusian ruble against the Russian one. Apparently, this could be the result of pressure from the industrial-agrarian lobby in the government. I repeat once again: no one caught anyone by the hand, and all this is nothing more than my assumptions. I would be happy to be wrong.
Now for the conclusions. Almost certainly, in the near future, the dollar and the euro will grow against our national currency, but this will happen moderately, within reasonable, not causing panic limits. And it is important to understand that this is not a unique problem of our country, but a global trend. It is difficult to guess what will happen to the Russian ruble. I would very much like to hope that we will not witness how the foreign exchange market again tried to steer manually. All previous attempts to do so in Belarus ended in failure.
If the impact on the exchange rate of the Russian ruble was a one-time action, which will end soon, nothing terrible will happen. But the very possibility that it has become possible again is alarming.
I would note that, despite the weakening of the domestic currency, deposits in it still remain quite profitable. At the same time, I would recommend getting rid of savings in the Russian ruble, because in the coming months, judging by the statements of representatives of the US government, a whole cascade of sanctions shocks may await him.
In exchange offices, the dollar costs 3,100 Belarusian rubles. But there is no currency there, even if you stand in line all day. On the exchange, the currency is sold at 3045, but only to enterprises that need dollars-euro to pay for gas or ensure the supply of medicines. For all currencies at this price is not enough. The National Bank allowed banks to sell dollars-euro to enterprises at 10% more than the official rate. But even at 3400-3600 it is difficult for a business to find “green” ones. Contracts with importers are broken, many small firms that work with imports have just gone on vacation. It seems that no one in the country now knows how much a dollar is actually worth. Some experts blame the Belarusians' wages that increased last year for the crisis, saying that the average $500 has not yet been earned in the country. Others say that those who want to buy a foreign car are taking the currency out of the country, because from July 1, duties on cars will rise to the level of Russian ones. So what is really happening with the Belarusian ruble?
Georgy GRITs, professor at the Institute of Continuing Education of Belarusian State University: “The devaluation of the Belarusian ruble will do more harm than good”
I think this is a natural result. economic policy when Belarus, hoping for better times lived beyond their means. We have been importing more than we have exported for the last five years. There is not enough currency not because there is a rush in the automotive market, but because the government's forecasts for export growth, import reduction and, as a result, competitiveness growth did not come true Belarusian economy generally. Of course, one can say that the Russian side is to blame, which increased the cost of gas and oil. But about this, as well as about the fact that duties on cars will rise in Belarus from July 1 of this year, we did not learn today or yesterday ...
This January, the negative balance was almost 300% higher than in January last year. In February, it again increased by a hundred percentage points compared to the comparable period. In my memory, such a growth rate of the deficit foreign trade the country did not yet know... In fact, this sad fact can be, using sports terminology, perceived as a "red card" for the current industrial policy.
We need to change something in the structure immediately. budget spending, allocate priority sectors, and maybe even enterprises, on which to concentrate all the resources available to the state. It is necessary to learn a simple truth - at all budget money will not be enough!
Belarus has had a negative balance of foreign trade for several years now. Why did the currency deficit happen only now?
You are right - we have been living with a negative foreign trade balance for many years, but in the period from 1996 to 2006 its value fluctuated in the amount of one and a half billion dollars annually, and the government solved this problem without significant external borrowings. Then the negative balance of foreign trade grew almost exponentially, and it was no longer possible to do without serious external borrowing. Over the past three years, the external public and corporate debt of Belarus has increased 10 times. But the question is not whether it was necessary to increase debts or not. Necessary. Almost the entire world today lives in debt. The problem is that, as life has shown, the previous government did not have clear answers to two simple questions: for what priority purposes should these funds be spent and, most importantly, how will we give them back. The current government has actually become a hostage to such a policy. And besides, in the conditions of today's unfavorable external situation, it has lost its customary preferences from Russia
Attempt National Bank over the past three months to maintain the stability of the Belarusian ruble through foreign exchange intervention on currency exchange, led to a decrease in the gold and foreign exchange reserves, intended to act as a "safety cushion" for the entire monetary system, by a quarter compared to last fall.
A further decrease already threatened with serious problems ... I will give only one figure. At the beginning of March currency deposits population in Belarusian banks amounted to about 4.7 billion dollars in equivalent. This value has already exceeded the current level of gold and foreign exchange reserves. And given that our state bears full responsibility for the contributions that lie in commercial banks, further reduction of strategic gold and foreign exchange reserves already posed a serious threat.
- How do you assess the measures of the National Bank, which imposes restrictions on the foreign exchange market?
This is a return to the old decision policy macroeconomic problems administrative restrictions. At first glance, these measures in the short term could, if not solve, then at least, freeze the negative trends that have developed in the foreign exchange market. But in real life, they not only failed to solve these problems, but gave them the character of a public discussion and, as a result, contributed to an unhealthy hype in the foreign exchange market.
Moreover, their initiators did not take into account, or perhaps simply did not know, that such actions could be perceived by our partners in the Customs Union as unfriendly restrictive measures against local companies supplying products to the Belarusian market. What happened. At the request of the Russian and Kazakh sides, after less than a month, a decision was made to lift restrictions on the conversion and transfer of payments for products supplied from these countries.
- You started by saying that the state should spend less...
Unfortunately, reducing or optimizing costs is only the first part of the journey that needs to be taken. It must be remembered that since January 2012, when the CES comes into force, the Belarusian side has been losing those levers of support, largely thanks to which the current state of the Belarusian economy was formed. The adoption and implementation of the full package of CES requirements by Belarus will entail a review of the entire range of currently used mechanisms state support. In terms of international trade rules, most of these are either prohibited or punishable subsidies. In other words, they must be canceled or adjusted in accordance with the signed agreements.
But it's good for the economy.
As I always say, it's good if you and I play the Monopoly game. If the company is unprofitable, let's sell this chip. If imported products are cheaper or of better quality, we will refuse the domestic supplier. But real life is much more complex. Do not forget that behind every enterprise there are tens, hundreds of thousands of living people. It seems to me that in the current situation, sadly, the population and the real sector of the economy will suffer the most ... And if you cut it "on the living", then at least you need to be sure that we did our best in the current situation.
I repeat once again - objectively we have another two or three years to restructure our economy and bring it in line with international requirements existing system cross-subsidization, including social sphere. But this must be done immediately. The later we start, the worse the consequences will be and more expensive price inevitable reforms.
The difference between the current situation and the situation of the 90s that we experienced is in one small detail. And then and now there is not enough money. But then there were sources of replenishment of the budget - the same oil industry, the border. Today these sources are melting. Now there are Russian border guards on the border, and Russia takes the duties on oil products.
- What should be done now to stabilize the situation?
The simplest solution is not even to reform our economy (it's an LP). Today it is necessary to "cut" expenses. But not in the real sector of the economy, as suggested by the Ministry of Economy. It is necessary to cut the cost of maintaining the state apparatus. But it also needs to be done smartly. If we reduce its number, then simultaneously, and perhaps even to a greater extent - to reduce the managerial or control functions of the state apparatus. Including, by expanding the powers of business entities directly.
Concerning real sector economy - and this is a bitter truth - without support, most of our enterprises simply will not survive. But there is not enough money in the budget for everything. That is why the most important task of the government is to determine the "points of growth" of the national economy.
- Is the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble needed now?
No. Moreover, I would say that it will do more harm than good. Indeed, devaluation is a short-term macroeconomic tool to increase the price competitiveness of local exporters by reducing the cost of labor or components from the same local producers. But at the same time, devaluation also increases the cost of imports, because for the same unit of production it will be necessary to pay a large amount of Belarusian rubles. Today we have about half of all exports formed by three positions - oil, potash fertilizers and ferrous metals. These are three types of products with very low added value. For the rest of Belarusian enterprises, whose contribution to the formation of export potential is an order of magnitude smaller, but which employs almost 80 percent of the able-bodied population, the share of the import component is from 60 to 95 percent. The increase in the cost of this import component will be like death. Because today - the main trump card of Belarusian products - it's not quality or manufacturability, but the price - will be destroyed.
- And according to your forecasts, when will I, a citizen of Belarus, be able to freely buy 100 dollars?
You can probably buy $100 today, of course, if you're lucky. But if we are talking about larger amount, moreover, about the exchange at the official rate, and at the same time not relying only on luck - it will be problematic to do this in the coming months ... Well, what will happen in half a year or a year - largely depends on the actions of the National Bank and the government in the field of macroeconomics. But as the previous period showed, to a large extent this is “guessing on the coffee grounds” ...
- Wouldn't it be better in this situation to remember that Belarus was once going to introduce the Russian ruble?
We must be honest, replacing the national currency with the Russian ruble is a loss of sovereignty. If we want to lose sovereignty, we need to introduce it, if we don’t want it, we need to do something.
Stanislav BOGDANKEVICH, ex-head of the National Bank of Belarus (1991-1995): “Today the situation is certainly better than in the 90s”
Today in Belarus the ruble money supply far exceeds the needs of the economy, that is, it does not correspond to the mass of commodities and the inflow of hard currency. It is this imbalance that leads to an increase in prices and to a real devaluation that would occur if the exchange rate in Belarus was formed through the market.
How did this imbalance come about?
violated economic law about the growth cash income First of all, wage growth should correspond to labor productivity and be a little lower. If incomes grow faster than productivity growth, this always leads to a skew. In Belarus, wages, pensions, allowances, etc. were administratively increased in the second half of last year. national product grew by 7-8%, and the money supply - by 30-40%, this discrepancy led to disproportions in the economy.
- It turns out that Belarusians have not yet earned an average salary of $500, but how much did they earn?
It evaluates the market, supply and demand. But indirectly, any economist will be able to estimate how much more we consume than we produce. This is evidenced by the deficit trade balance. Last year we bought 8 billion more abroad than we produced. These 8 billion should be taken away from the monetary incomes of the population as money not earned by our economy and our people. This amount was eaten, consumed inside Belarus. This is over consumption.
- What will it result in - devaluation, inflation?
This is already resulting in devaluation and inflation. Belarus ranked first in Europe in terms of inflation in the first two months of this year. Our inflation is higher than in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova. Prices are rising.
Now many say that the country is going through the 90s. Is it possible to compare the current situation with that time?
The situation today is certainly better. We have gold and foreign exchange reserves, which did not exist at all in the mid-1990s. When I assumed the position of the head of the National Bank, we not only had no reserves, we had a minus. And then we accumulated - 100,200,300 million dollars. Today, after all, almost $4 billion remains in reserves. The indicators are better, but the civilized foreign exchange market is being disorganized. It is necessary that the dollar and the euro cost as much as they cost and how much they are willing to pay for them, so that any subject, any citizen can market price buy currency. We have closed this opportunity for today. This leads to a multiplicity of rates, to the shadow market, to corruption. Today in Russia you can buy dollars for 4,000-5,000 Belarusian rubles; with us, you can buy them for 3,000 rubles. This is an abnormal situation and under no circumstances could it be returned to.
- And how long can it last.
The government should immediately develop a program to stabilize the economy and the monetary sphere, which would include receiving external loans on the a certain amount. This must be done in conjunction with the sale. state property. On the other hand, it is necessary to limit funding from the budget of state projects. It is necessary to reduce subsidies to housing and communal services and agriculture. If we reduce government spending, limit bank lending to inefficient government projects, then we will reduce the ruble-money supply and get foreign exchange earnings. These emergency measures could improve the situation in a few months. Yes, this will lead to a deterioration in the standard of living, but this is normal in this case.
Also, pay cuts senior officials, because it is impossible with a productivity of 7%, to increase wages by 50%. If the people and enterprises do not have rubles, they will not be able to apply to the foreign exchange market, a free currency will appear and the problem will be solved by itself. In the meantime, the situation when an entrepreneur, small and medium business, a citizen can not promptly buy the currency, leading to a deterioration in the investment climate.
- Can Belarusian business develop without foreign currency?
To some extent, maybe, but not for long. Today the economy of Belarus is open. The share of imports in the economy is 68%.
- That is, if we produce something for 1 ruble, then it contains 68 kopecks of imported goods?
Yes. Therefore, the lack of currency will disorganize the entire economy. Of course, entrepreneurs will adapt, will overpay for foreign currency, raise prices. But this is not normal. Need to change economic model so that it gives the same effect as the Poles. We have last year average salary was 500 dollars, and in Poland - one and a half thousand. But in the 90th year, we had the same indicators with the Poles.
And now they say that the crisis began also because everyone rushed to buy foreign currency, because they want to bring a foreign car before July 1, when duties will be raised to the level of Russian ones. Is there such a dependence?
There is, but not much. Let's say 300 million dollars spent by the population on the purchase of cars, even a billion. But this is not the money. Belarus today needs about 10 billion dollars a year. This is the minimum necessary to stabilize the situation.
- If Russia and the EurAsEC allocate a three billion loan to the country, will this be enough for several months?
I think that if other measures are taken at the same time - limiting state projects, freezing wages, pensions - then this will lead to a certain improvement in the balance. According to the new government, we need to receive investments from outside in the amount of more than 6 billion dollars a year, about the same amount of external loans, then we will function normally.
- Which of our industries bring currency to the country?
Potassium, tractor building, mechanical engineering, oil products. Need to develop Agriculture. Every year we give this industry two billion dollars, and they sell products and even have no profitability.
- When will a simple resident of the country be able to buy currency in an exchanger?
My wife wanted to buy $50 to pay the tutor for English tutoring. I could not. When can? When will the political will solve this problem. I mean, when the Russians will give a loan, when the authorities carry out a devaluation of 10-15%, which is actually already underway, when they limit the creation of empty rubles, etc.
To the lowest since November 2016. The fall began on August 9, he lost more than two Belarusian kopecks, and now one hundred Russian rubles costs 3.07 Belarusian rubles. the site found out from experts what will happen to the Belarusian ruble in light of the fact that the Russian one is falling.
Financial Consultant Teletrade Mikhail Grachev noted that “it is not yet clear what is happening with the Russian ruble and to what extent it can decline against the US dollar in the Russian foreign exchange market.”
— Many associate the depreciation of the Russian ruble with new sanctions from the United States, and the word “economic war” hung in the air. But, firstly, so far the new sanctions are not a fait accompli, but a draft law that was sent to Congress by a group of American lawmakers. Secondly, for some reason it remained unnoticed that over the last three trading days the US dollar has strengthened in the global financial market against all world currencies, Mikhail Grachev emphasizes. — This morning at the close of the Asian session CNY fell by 0.56%, Australian dollar fell 1.00%, the Canadian dollar lost 0.38% and the Turkish lira fell 6.96%. Against this background, today's depreciation Russian currency by 0.04% is within the technical error.
The financial consultant believes that there is a powerful speculative attack on the strengthening of the dollar in the financial market. The expert has a logical question: who benefits from this and who is able to bring the world into tectonic movement? financial market?
“The strengthening of the US dollar is a blow to American exports, that is, active opposition to the increase in tariff rates by the United States, which is called the “trade war,” says Mikhail Grachev. — The most active fighting are being waged with China, and yesterday Chinese President Xi Jinping unequivocally declared his readiness to repulse the "gangsters" from the Capitol.
According to the specialist, the likelihood of such a development of events was, experts have repeatedly pointed to this.
- Modern China has enough capital to wage a trade war with Washington on an equal footing. Manipulating the opponent's currency rate is one of the most effective ways to cool the Washington hawks, so it is highly likely that the rate will return to its original position after the “Chinese warning,” the consultant notes. - The National Bank of Belarus in this situation does not interfere in the course of trading by intervening or buying out the declining Russian ruble.
The expert believes that “this is the right position, because something similar was observed in April, when, after a period of volatility (price volatility. - Ed.), the rates returned to the equilibrium value.”
— Since the decline of the Russian ruble is still ongoing, the RUB/BYN pair will also go down on the Belarusian market for some time. But the level is below 3.0 per 100 Russian rubles, while the dollar rises to 70.00 by Russian market is close to critical for Belarusian exports, Mikhail Grachev predicts. - The National Bank may include regulation through the currency basket, allowing the growth of the dollar on the Belarusian market.
For the past few days, independent media have been stubbornly circulating rumors about an imminent re-devaluation. Moreover, the government can "lower" the ruble twice at once. The National Bank, as usual, knows nothing about it. But independent experts unanimously predict the collapse of financial stability.
The reason for the possible devaluation to the point of banality is simple: the country does not have enough currency. According to the Ministry of Statistics, in the first quarter the negative foreign trade balance increased 6.6 times compared to the same period in 2008 and reached $1 billion 445 million. Belarusian exports fell by 49.7% over three months.
All this led to the fact that the National Bank sent out a verbal order to restrict currency trading on the stock exchange. This information was first spread by the FSA, and then, with reference to anonymous sources in commercial banks, it was confirmed by Radio Liberty and Interfax-Zapad.
Later, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of Belarus Pavel Kallaur in an interview with the Interfax-Zapad agency, he denied this information.
"In accordance with the law on currency regulation and currency control current operations carried out in the foreign exchange market without any restrictions. The National Bank did not impose any restrictions on the purchase and sale of foreign currency on the stock exchange., the official noted.
But independent experts believe that the train has already started, and another devaluation of the ruble is inevitable. In an interview www.udf.by Head of the Mises Research Center Yaroslav Romanchuk called the "telephone" decision of the National Bank quite possible, and its consequences catastrophic for the economy:
-This is due to the fact that the country is chronically short of currency. Exports fell by almost 50%. And foreign exchange earnings at the end of the year may be reduced by 13 billion dollars. So the balance of payments and trade show that the devaluation in the country should be quite strong.
However, instead of solving the problem, the government continues to assert that everything is in order with us, that financial and banking system stable. But the appearance of such orders of the National Bank - oral or written - suggests the opposite. That we are either on the verge of a very strong devaluation or a return to plurality exchange rates and the rise of the black market. Some firms will serve legal entities, others, smaller, - to work directly with the population, as it was in the 90s.
Yaroslav Romanchuk believes that if the National Bank decides to pump up the economy with empty Belarusian "bunnies", then by the end of the year the dollar will cost at least 4-5 thousand rubles.
Together with the devaluation, the expert proposes to the government and the National Bank to cancel three documents - the budget for 2008, the main directions of monetary policy and the five-year plan for the development of the country approved by the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, "which will never be fulfilled."
-Having done this, the government admits that the attempt to build socialism in Belarus at the expense of Russian resources ended in complete failure. And the way out of the crisis will be very, very painful for us.- added Y. Romanchuk.
Chairman of the Board of the Business Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. Kunyavsky George Badei. In an interview with Interfax-Zapad, he said that in order to save the economy, the ruble must be devalued twice at once.
“Judging by the data of the trade balance, and this is a negative balance of almost $1.5 billion, then the economy needs devaluation,” G. Badei said. “Currency is also a commodity. enough. The laws of the market are such that everything that is in short supply becomes more expensive. This is simple arithmetic, and based on it, foreign currency in Belarus should rise in price", - says the expert.
According to him, the devaluation "will cause an increase in consumer prices and a decrease in the standard of living of the population." "But you have to live within your means", - added G.Badei.
Alexander Kutitsky
More recently, literally in July last year, there was another denomination of the ruble in the Republic of Belarus. It is worth noting that it was not the only one, because after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the denomination was carried out 4 times. Last monetary reform significantly facilitated the settlement system on the territory of Belarus, because before it it was almost impossible to comfortably use monetary units. Let's answer the question why there was a denomination of money in Belarus in 2016, its causes and consequences.
What is the purpose of denomination?
If to speak in simple words what is a denomination, then in fact it is just a change face value national currency. This procedure is used to facilitate the settlement system, as well as to stabilize the economic situation within the state after economic crisis or hyperinflation.
If we talk about the reasons for the denomination in general, then when it is carried out, the ratio of money changes, in this case in Belarus it changed 1 to 10,000, and in Russia in 1998, the nominal value of the national currency decreased by 1000. Accordingly, after these events, the entire cost of goods and services also decreased by 10,000 times. Why do you need a regular denomination:
- to approve the national currency in relation to the world;
- reveal hidden incomes of the population;
- simplify the payment system;
- reduce the cost of issuing new banknotes.
Please note that in most cases, monetary reforms are carried out during a crisis or after hyperinflation in order to restore the domestic economy.
History reference
As mentioned earlier, the denomination in the Republic of Belarus was carried out repeatedly, and this was only after the collapse of the USSR. The first monetary reform was carried out in 1992, when 1 zero disappeared from the nominal value of the national currency. At that time, Belarusian rubles had an original design, because they were decorated with images of animals, and among the people they were called "bunnies".
The second monetary reform was not long in coming, and was carried out 2 years after the first, then another zero disappeared from the national currency. But at that time, after secession from the USSR, Belarus gained independence and never held economic reforms, which led to inflation, so by the beginning of the new century it again became necessary to denominate the currency, then the ratio was 1 to 1000.
The last denomination of the Belarusian ruble in 2016, as mentioned earlier, banknotes have become 10,000 times smaller. One has only to think about the fact that before the reform, there were banknotes of 2 and 5 million Belarusian rubles in circulation on the territory of the state, and if translated into modern money, these are 200 and 500 rubles, respectively.
Please note that today the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble is 1 to 30.57, and the Belarusian ruble to the Russian ruble before the denomination was approximately 0.003057 to 1.
Reasons for monetary reform
Undoubtedly, the main reason for the denomination, including in Belarus, is the rapid growth of inflation in the country. Although the country's government explains the reform by the fact that the need to reduce the number of zeros on banknotes is due to the fact that they are extremely inconvenient to use. In general, the denomination, as the government promises, will not affect purchasing power goods and services and will not harm the well-being of the citizens of the republic.
Currency of Belarus before and after denomination
But it is also worth noting that inflation also takes place here, which, in fact, is associated with economic stagnation and the need to carry out internal changes. Although, according to President Lukashenko himself, the country's economy is stable and the renewal of the national currency will not lead to devaluation, which means that the inhabitants of the state have nothing to fear.
Please note that the monetary reform in Belarus is of a technical nature and will not affect purchasing power in any way.
Progress of the reform
Official denomination order monetary unit Republic of Belarus was signed by the President of the Republic on November 4, 2015, and the reform itself began on July 1, 2016. Approximately six months until the end of 2016 have been allocated for the complete extraction of old banknotes from circulation. Money on the territory of Belarus was withdrawn gradually, that is, citizens could pay as old banknotes, and new ones, it was possible to exchange the remaining savings in the bank.
The peculiarities of this reform are that before it was carried out, only paper banknotes would be in circulation. And today, residents of Belarus have the opportunity to use coins in denominations of 10.20, 50 kopecks 1 and 2 rubles. Among paper banknotes there are banknotes of 5.10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 rubles today appearance banknotes adorn the cities of Belarus.
It is noteworthy that the monetary reform has been planned since 2009. It was then that the development of the design of new banknotes began. Officially, the version of the denomination appeared in 2014, announced by President Lukashenko during an interview with Belarusian journalists.
Consequences of the reform
The denomination in Belarus 2016 did not bring any negative consequences for the population. First of all, it should be noted that this monetary reform was really necessary primarily for the common population. In addition, accountants and employees received a great advantage from it. financial sphere. In addition, President Lukashenko himself promised to “tear off the head of everyone who raises prices for goods,” which means that the population of Belarus only benefits from the reform.
To summarize, the monetary reform in Belarus is just changes that are of a technical nature and are not related to the domestic economic crisis, although the inflation rate in the country exceeds the permissible limits, and is 15-18% per year. In any case, the reduction of zeros in the denomination of the monetary unit has greatly facilitated the life of the Belarusians. After all, just imagine, in order to make any major purchase, the inhabitants of the country literally had to carry a bag of money with them, because, as mentioned earlier, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the ruble before the denomination was 0.003057 to 1.
