The financial and economic crisis in Russia that began in 2014- the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia caused by the currency crisis that began in mid-2014, which exacerbated the structural crisis of the Russian economy.

The currency crisis, which erupted in connection with the decline in oil prices and the economic sanctions of Western countries against Russia, caused a significant depreciation of the ruble against foreign currencies, which led to increased inflation, a significant deterioration in the social situation of citizens and, as a result, a fall in the lending market and retail.

Most sectors of the economy were affected by the crisis, resulting in a decline in production.

In December 2014 Alexey Ulyukaev, Minister of Economic Development Russian Federation hypothesized that we are dealing with three crises, superimposed on one another, and each crisis has its own cause: a structural crisis, a geopolitical crisis (Western sanctions) and a crisis associated with restrictions on demand (on raw materials). In February 2015, this idea appeared in a report by the Center for Eastern Studies (Warsaw): “The current situation is the result of the simultaneous emergence of three unfavorable trends: structural problems in the resource-based economic model, a sharp decline in oil prices and the impact of Western economic sanctions.”

Later, in April 2015, World Bank experts also confirmed that, in addition to the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to endure two more shocks in 2014 that significantly affected its economy: the fall in oil prices that led to a currency crisis and Western economic sanctions.

Structural crisis in Russian economy

The structure of exports of goods from Russia in August 2012. 70% - energy.

The main reason for the financial and economic instability of 2014-2015 was the structural crisis of the Russian economy, which persisted after the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009. The essence of the problem is as follows: when an export boom occurs in the economy, changes in its structure occur in the direction of deindustrialization and the decline of agriculture, and when it ends - as a rule, suddenly and unexpectedly - it is impossible to quickly restore the degraded manufacturing industry and the agricultural sector. To overcome this vicious circle, serious efforts are required, primarily in the field of technology development.

Starting from the middle of 2012, there was a slowdown in the Russian economy. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, these phenomena were associated with structural problems.

GDP growth in 2013 was only 1.3%, which was three times lower than previously planned (3.6%). The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank noted a slowdown economic growth and lowered forecasts for GDP growth in 2013 and 2014. Only by the end of 2013, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev officially recognized the stagnation in the economy. In 2013, World Bank experts noted that the structural problems of the Russian economy and its growth, in particular, the presence of non-competitive industries and non-competitive markets, are coming to the fore. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaeva then admitted that the structural crisis is "the result of an unreformed economy." Later, President Vladimir Putin noted the fact that the internal cause of the crisis of 2014-2015 was a structural factor: outstripping wage growth coupled with insufficient labor productivity. In August 2015, Bloomberg statistically confirmed the fact of the low labor productivity of Russians, recognizing them as the most inefficient workers in Europe.

Experts from the Higher School of Economics stated that the slowdown in economic growth in 2012 was due to the fact that the sources of growth in the resource-oriented economy of Russia were exhausted due to the end of the rise in oil prices, and institutional restrictions (increasing excessive participation of the state in the economy, postponement of reforms and a crisis of confidence in the state) prevented the emergence of new sources of growth. A number of publications also recognized the excessive dependence of the country on oil as the reason for the stagnation of 2012-2013.

Falling oil prices and currency crisis

Main article: Currency crisis in Russia (2014-2015)

The dynamics of the dollar against the ruble for 2013-2015

In the second half of 2014, a currency crisis began in Russia, caused by a decline in oil prices and economic sanctions by Western countries against Russia. The ruble devalued against the US dollar and the euro by 72.2% and 51.7%. Currency crisis led to an increase in inflation, and consequently, to a decrease in real disposable incomes of the population and consumer demand. The World Bank report highlights that the tightening of monetary policy has pushed up the cost of lending due to the weakening ruble, further reducing domestic demand. The Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation also believes that the emergence of the financial and economic crisis was due to the devaluation of the ruble.

Russia's GDP in November 2014 went into negative territory for the first time since 2009. The fall was 0.5%, the Ministry of Economic Development reported on December 29. This is not the only anti-record of the year - on December 15, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar fell by more than 8.5% in a few hours. By that time Russian currency has almost doubled in value since the beginning of the year. The last anti-record for the ruble was recorded in January 1999. The devaluation was preceded by a five-month decline in oil prices, tougher EU and US sanctions, and Russian “anti-sanctions.” The situation was aggravated by the decision of the OPEC countries not to reduce the quota for oil production. After that, commodity prices collapsed, capital outflow and inflation accelerated. Gold and foreign exchange reserves continued to be spent, and the president's approval rating continued to rise. RBC decided to demonstrate how the situation changed during the year using nine charts as an example.

This year, the Ministry of Economic Development reviewed official forecast for inflation three times. The initial forecast by the end of the year was almost doubled - from 4,8 before 9% . In reality, as Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on December 25, “according to the year, most likely, it will be somewhere 11,5% maybe a little more."

If at the beginning of the year the economic bloc of the government and banks generally agreed that in 12 months the GDP would increase by 2-3% , then in the spring even the minimum growth was called into question. The reasons for the decline in GDP are a decrease in investment inflow due to the situation in Ukraine, a significant slowdown in the growth of industrial and trade stocks, and low domestic demand.

Until mid-2014, oil prices remained stable within $105-115 per barrel. In September, quotes went down and by December fell to $60/bbl. In the most pessimistic forecasts, analysts predicted a price decline to $85/bbl. In addition, Russia's budget for 2015 was drawn up based on the average annual price of Urals oil in $80/bbl .

Throughout the first half of the year, the number of Russians who approved of Vladimir Putin's work as president grew. In June, the president's rating broke its five-year record. This was preceded by the Olympic successes of Russia and the annexation of Crimea. Thanks to the patriotic upsurge and mobilization against the "enemies" in October, the president's rating soared to a new high - 88% .

The volume of Russia's gold and foreign exchange savings exceeded the mark of $500 billion in January. As it turned out, only for a few days. During the year, Russia lost almost a fifth of its gold and foreign exchange reserves and reached a four-year low in this indicator. At the same time, the currency was spent mainly. The reason was the Central Bank's foreign exchange interventions designed to support the ruble.

During the first half of the year, the ruble was as stable as oil prices. From the middle of the year, its rate against the leading world currencies began to decline along with oil prices. On November 10, the Central Bank canceled the currency corridor and let the ruble float freely. An uncontrolled fall led to the fact that on December 16, on the stock exchange, the euro cost more than 100 rub., dollar - more 80 rub .

Imports began to decline in the second half of the year, after the imposition of EU and US sanctions. Exports behaved in a similar way - their decline slowed down only against the backdrop of the depreciation of the ruble in the last months of the year. Experts explain the decline in imports by the crisis in Ukraine, sanctions and the general deterioration of the investment climate, exports - by political reasons and the fall in oil and gas prices.

Incomes of citizens for almost the entire year were close to last year's values. But the collapse of the ruble in December changed the situation. Real disposable income, according to Rosstat, in January-November 2014 decreased by 0,3% . Real incomes of citizens will continue to decline and in 2015, as expected, by 5-7% they will be devalued by high inflation.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the outflow of capital at the end of the year is about $125 billion(taking into account the forecast for the 4th quarter) - will almost reach the volumes of the crisis year 2008. It is associated with uncertainty in the economy, the transition to a floating exchange rate of the ruble and the annexation of Crimea. Contrary to expectations, the sanctions as such did not have such a noticeable effect - the outflow of capital increased sharply only at the end of the year, and main reason This was the fall in oil prices.

Derevshchikova E.O. Financial crisis 2014-2015: consequences and prospects for Russia // International magazine social and human sciences. - 2016. - V. 2. No. 1. - S. 25-28.

FINANCIAL CRISIS IP 2014-2015 GG: CONSEQUENCES AND

PROSPECTS FOR ROS with AI

E.O. Derevshchikova, student

Kuban State University

(Russia, Krasnodar)

Annotation. The article examines the impact of the current financial crisis on the Russian economy. A sharp drop in oil prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the ruble, a strong geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose on the f about not the situation with Ukraine, and as one of its consequences, the lack of foreign investment predetermined the modern economic downturn in Russia. The article analyzes the main consequences of the crisis for the state and individual sectors of the Russian economy. about miky. The immediate development prospects are considered and the optimal scenario of measures for Russia's optimal way out of the crisis is identified.

Keywords: Russian economy, economic crisis, financial crisis, economic recession, sanctions, collapse of the ruble, anti-crisis measures.

It's no secret that the financial crisis of 2014 led to a deterioration in the economic situation in Russia. Etc and reasons for the aggravated situation in we are also economic sanctions, e money against Russia, and a sharp drop in prices for energy resources, the sale of which about accounts for the majority of the country's budget revenues. Together, both external and internal factors and gave the crisis an eminent exceptional b ness. The global financial crisis and led to an outflow of (foreign) capital out of the country, weakening stock markets and problems interbank market, to the complication with solvency about and liquidity, to an increase in inflation, to a significant decline in a number of industries in the Russian economy, and to a decrease in real incomes of the population of the Russian Federation.

Due to major difficulties, I with the access of small, medium and large Russian businesses to finance and industry, investment programs of many companies are rapidly m pany. Decrease in investment and attractiveness across a range of industries. For export-oriented business yes n This problem is exacerbated by the aggravation of the external economic situation. Due to the fact that the demand for the products of such companies is decreasing, the intermediate demand for the products of other economic sectors is also decreasing. At the sametime, volume falls consumer lending, and therefore limited and there is a demand for real estate and cars about were of domestic production.

Imbalance of relations between the budget a mi rests on changing conditions, norms of legislation and attitude among org a new authorities at all levels by decision in about requests related to the disbandment, distribution and control financial resources, moreover, with redistributed and authority and appropriate response t responsibility for their use. These processes, unlike most other economic and managerial processes, are associated with projects, plans, schemes and program documentation. The deficit is gaining momentum federal budget, which determines the deepening of regional differentiation in terms of welfare I as a result of which one can trace the weak influence of the federal center on the subjects of the Russian Federation. Targeted measures for d holding exchange rate, reduction to l debt obligations of our companies, varying the refinancing rate, investing resources in the domestic banking sector, assistance stock market and others, inevitably led to an instant decline in international r e zervs of the country.

Some of the consequences of the crisis for the state are presented in the table 1.

Table 1. Consequences of the financial crisis of 2014-2015 for the Russian state t va

Table 2. Expected results from using the proposed scenario

If you create a system of incentives for the formation of an economy with characteristic features, proposed scenario n about allows you to survive the crisis with the leastlosses and come out of it with more prod to the active economy.

The fight against inflation only with p about by the power of monetarist methods about led to under-lending e industrial sector of the economy and industrial n production. The result of such a and financial policy may become extinct about decline and reduction in production, growth in imports and dependence of the financial system e we are from foreign loans, local t about vars will be newdemanded in the demand market.

The financial crisis is known to and melt away a situation of cardinal and instantaneous n significant reduction in the cost of organizations and / or global financial assets. The complexity of building a financial system e we are defined by a number of problems, a example, such as, all kinds of currency t crashes, bank failures, difficulty in managing liquidity and you, as well as sovereign defaults.

The relationship between strategic actions and anti-crisis measures of the government remains t important point as well as their differentiation.

And only timely prepared and implemented measures will prevent about fly the consequences of the global financial crisis and minimize losses in the economic and social spheres.

Bibliographic list

1. Website " federal Service state statistics» [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/

2. Website " Central bank Russian Federation"[Electronic resource].- Access mode: http://www.cbr.ru/

3. Berdnikova L. F., Fatkullina E. R. Financial crisis 2014-2015 and its influence on Russia // Young scientist.- 2015. - No. 11.3. - P. 10-13.

FINANCIAL CRISIS 2014-2015: CONSEQUENCES AND PROSPECTS

FOR RUSSIA

E.O. Derevschikova, student

Kuban state university

(Russia, Krasnodar)

abstract. The paper examines the impact of the current financial crisis on the Russian eco n omy. A sharp drop in oil prices, the ruble exchange rate fluctuations, unstable geopolitical situ a action in the world, anti-Russian sanctions, appeared on the background of the situation with Ukraine , and as one of its consequences, lack of foreign investment in Russia determined by the current situation of the Russian economy recession. The article analyzes the main effects of the crisis for the state and the individual sectors of the Russian economy. We consider the immediate prospects for the development and identified the optimal scenario of events for the optimal exit of Russia from the crisis.

keywords: Russian economy, the economic crisis, the financial crisis, economic decline, sanctions, the collapse of the ruble, the anti-crisis measures.

This is not the first time the Russian economy has experienced a crisis. The history of Russia has known what a deficit is. Russians know how to survive in difficult times, experience has taught us this. The worst crisis in the Russian economy happened 16 years ago when the country announced that its economy had collapsed, Moscow defaulted in 1998.

Now you can often hear that the 1998 default, which crippled Russia, has similarities with the 2014 crisis. The editors decided to figure out whether it is rational to compare these two difficult periods? Looking ahead, the answer is no. But first things first.

Background and causes of the crisis

1998 default

Considering the question of the prerequisites for the 1998 default, it is worth delving a little into history. The problem in the Russian economy dates back to 1995. During these years, there was a confrontation between the State Duma and the government. During these years, the Communist Party still dominated the parliament, which did not support the government's intentions to carry out market reforms.

The State Duma, led by the Communists, adopted unbalanced budgets, in which spending was greater than income. Thus, Russia's public debt only increased. In addition, the country did not decrease tax rates. Thus, the destruction of the country's economy took place as a result of internal conflicts between the branches of government and inefficient budget spending. To these factors were added the crisis in the countries of Southeast Asia and the fall in energy prices.

Crisis of 2014

The prerequisites for an economic crisis began to appear in the summer of 2014, when the national currency began to fall, and the West introduced against the country. Also, summer 2014 was marked. Russian companies cut off from Western capital markets, and Moscow staged a blockade from the outside.

They also include seasonal phenomena of buying up currencies, and the shadow operations of the Central Bank to issue a loan to Rosneft, and the work of Western investors who undermine the Russian economy on special orders from Washington. There are a lot of reasons, and all of them together led the country to such a state.

home distinguishing feature of the 1998 default and the 2014 crisis that the government is to blame for the default, which carried out irrational financial policy, and indirectly external factors. In 2014, the crisis in Russia was caused by reasons that came from outside.

Social life

1998 default

The crisis of 1998 was marked by massive non-payment of wages and pensions, and the cancellation of state orders at enterprises. The population was inexorably impoverished. The growth of consumer prices in September 1998 amounted to 40%. Unemployment has increased. In 1998, the population decline (the excess of deaths over births) increased by 200,000 people.

Social life corresponded economic situation countries. Russia was overwhelmed by the protests of angry citizens. People opposed the authorities, which put pressure on the people to a state of hopelessness.

Crisis of 2014

Social life in 2014 is different from 1998. The first difference is in the mood of the citizens. Russian society blames neither the government, nor the State Duma, nor the president for economic problems. On the contrary, they are ready to help in every possible way in order to get out of the crisis.

Regarding the prices of goods, here, but not as catastrophic as in 1998. In addition, the government fulfills all its obligations to pay wages and pensions. The country continues to develop its industries, invests money in the development of the Russian Federation.

Negative in the mood of the Russians and brings the course national currency. The high cost of the dollar and the euro makes many purchases to be abandoned. Now expensive tours abroad. But all these phenomena indirectly relate to the life of an ordinary citizen, who can do without it.

Measures taken

1998 default

For solutions Russian problem in the economy, international financial institutions. A series of difficult negotiations took place between the IMF and the World Bank of Russia in the summer of 1998. During these negotiations, a plan was developed to stabilize the Russian economy. It was planned to spend 25 billion dollars on this. But these measures to resolve the crisis were rejected by the communists, who at that time made all the important decisions in the State Duma.

Positive results for the solution of the crisis gave the correct actions of the government when declaring a default. Russia defaulted in 1998 external debt in dollars, but on government short-term bonds. Such measures helped Russia after the announcement of the default to begin to restore the economy.

Crisis of 2014

On the this moment to stabilize the situation on the currency market, decisions are made by the Central Bank. Unfortunately, he doesn't always do it well. Evidence of this is the soaring exchange rate of the dollar and the euro. Since the beginning of the crisis foreign currency more than half the price.

After the Prime Minister held an emergency meeting of officials financial sector countries. During these negotiations, the government accepted, and on December 17, the ruble began to rapidly strengthen.

Consequences of the crisis

1998 default

On August 17, 1998, the government declared a technical default in Russia. Moscow admitted that it could not fulfill its debentures. After that, a new construction of the economy began.

The post-crisis recession in Russia was short-lived. After some time, the economy began to develop rapidly and regain its former positions. Economic growth in 1999 was 15%. poured into Russia foreign investment which also contributed to the improvement of the situation.

Crisis of 2014

It is too early to talk about the consequences of the 2014 crisis. The problems are not over yet, the government is not declaring a default, seeing a way out of the current situation. Predicting possible consequences, it can be assumed that now Russia has learned the lessons from inefficient budget formation, the filling of which almost half depends only on the sale of energy resources.

Also, the consequences of the crisis, which are already looming, can be attributed to and, as well as from Europe to Asia. Another consequence of the crisis could be an outflow foreign capital from the country, although in 1998 the opposite trend was observed.

Are there similarities?

Now many are comparing the crisis of 1998 with the crisis of 2014, arguing that the country is waiting for a default. After analyzing the components crisis process then and today, we can conclude that there are similarities in these periods - the depreciation of the national currency and oil prices. The very causes and development of crises are different, respectively, and the outcome will be different.

We hope that others in a positive aspect.

The fall in commodity markets in the second half of 2014, especially oil prices, and large payments on external debts in the period of late 2014 and early 2015 caused the need to balance Russia's foreign trade and balance of payments. Difficult access to external capital markets, due to sanctions, and the underdevelopment of its own markets, have reduced the window of opportunity for the Russian economy to an inevitable devaluation of the national currency, in proportion to the fall in oil prices. The devaluation of the ruble allowed the tradable sectors of the economy to compensate for the negative dynamics of the commodity markets, and trade balance go into surplus. The main blow fell on households (consumers) and non-tradable sectors of the economy (including the construction sector, the blow to the latter was mitigated by the rush demand at the end of 2014, due to the association of the layman with real estate as a reliable tool for saving capital). Tightening monetary policy The CBR created additional hardship for affected sectors of the economy and consumers by cutting their incomes, increasing payments to creditors, and limiting access to new credit resources.

The labor market has experienced pressure from a declining economic activity At the same time, the leveling off in the recruitment market was mainly due to a decrease in wages rather than an increase in unemployment. The latter circumstance reduces labor mobility and increases the time for the economy to adapt. According to official statistics, workers took the brunt of the decline in income public sector and tradable sectors of the economy. The decrease in income was due to both a significant increase in inflation, the main increase in prices in consumption fell on food products, and a nominal reduction in wages. The increase in food prices occurred both due to the devaluation of the national currency, and due to the counter-sanctions adopted by the Russian government, prohibiting the import of food from the countries of the main trading partners, which created additional costs for the delivery of products to the consumer. Official data on the inflation rate look understated and do not inspire confidence: for example, in 2014, Rosstat "draws" 11.4%, and for 9 months of 2015 - 10.4% (total 23.0% for 2 years). Real figures should be close to the level of devaluation of the national currency and be about 44% over 2 years. Similar results are shown by inFOM surveys, commissioned by the Central Bank of Russia, in the first half of 2015 - 26.8% of the observed inflation, while the expected value is about 15.0%. Such figures will inevitably reduce consumption, force the poor to switch to cheaper food and significantly reduce the ability of the population to save. This assumption is confirmed by the data of the Public Opinion Foundation, according to a survey conducted in June 2015, 53% of respondents refused the opportunity to make savings and 71% could not do it for last month. For the first time since the 1998-99 crisis, significant growth poverty in Russia. If in 2010 the population with incomes below 5 USD per person did not exceed 10.0%, according to Rosstat, then by 2015, according to the forecast World Bank, is expected to rise to 14.2%.

Reduction aggregate demand will inevitably hit producers, with the largest reduction in demand coming from the non-tradable sectors of the economy, since the latter will not be able to compensate for the decline in demand with the supply of products for export. A decrease in the ability of households to direct funds to savings will reduce effective demand for durable goods and real estate. Growth interest rates on loans and an increase in the level of problem and non-performing loans in banking, will reduce the availability of a credit source for financing major purchases, including mortgage financing real estate transactions. In the middle of the year construction companies Moscow and the Moscow region noted a 30-50% drop in demand (Morton, Absolut, NDV-real estate). Similar dynamics are noted in the appeal of developers for approval. urban plans land plots(Moskomstroyinvest). At the same time, it can be noted that those regions of Russia where the average level of income of the population is lower than the average level of income of the population will suffer more from the fall in demand for real estate. And in a region with a high level of income, there will be an increase in competition among builders for their buyer. This circumstance will lead to a snowfall in prices on the market and a reduction in the margins of construction companies. Rising cost of lending real sector, lower availability of loans (growth in defaults and higher reserve requirements for the banking sector), together with a drop in current income, creates risks of an increase in non-payments in the industry and a series of bankruptcies and/or hostile takeovers.

Forecast for 2016.

The outlook for 2016 is seen as more of a threat than an opportunity. If at the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015 the oil supply overhang of 3-2% (2-2.5 million barrels per day) of consumption sent prices due south. Then, with the current supply pressure continuing, there is a risk of a return to the Iranian oil market. With the lifting of the oil embargo from Tehran, the country promises to increase oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day in a year. The current OPEC consultations have so far not given signals of the cartel's readiness to cut oil production and move away from the policy of maintaining market share in exchange for high prices. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia continues the practice of selling its oil at a significant discount to market conditions. The latest initiative of Riyadh was the sale of oil to Poland through the port of Gdansk. By mid-October, Poland had already received three shipments of 100,000 tons of oil from Saudi Arabia at a "simply magical" discount. In addition, Riyadh indicated its intention to transfer the energy supply of the kingdom to associated gas in order to send the released volumes of oil to the market, and thereby replenish the lost income from falling prices.

Does not bode well for the energy market and demand. The slowdown in the growth of developing economies (except perhaps India), the implementation of energy and resource conservation programs create risks of stagnation in demand for energy. Experts' concerns about the state of China's economy are periodically increasing. Overestimate the traditions of the regional bureaucracy statistics growth, in order to achieve career advancement, undermine the credibility of official statistics and serve as a basis for the spread of negative rumors. The growth of the Celestial Empire was due to the use leverage. Since 2007, global debt has increased by $57 trillion. US dollars, with about 50% of this debt issued by China. At the same time, it is necessary to note the continuing vector of the decrease in the profitability of the industrial sector of the Celestial Empire. However, Beijing still demonstrates the ability to manage its economy by regulating the volume of lending and is making efforts to make its markets more open, and national economy more competitive. In Asia, in contrast to China, the Indian economy is gaining momentum. A country with a large and growing population is showing a growth rate of around 7.5% per annum this year and is expected to be next year. However, since the economy of New Delhi is 3 times inferior to Beijing, the commodity markets should not fall only on the strength of the Indian economy.

Since the current cycle of falling commodities markets was driven mainly by growth on the supply side, the recovery of markets will take a longer period than in the case of a temporary reduction in demand (as in the crisis of 2008-09). Thus, in 2016, a significant improvement in conditions on the energy market should not be expected. On the contrary, in the first half of the year, we can expect Brent to try to go below $40 and return to the current range by the end of the year, or in 2017 (in this scenario, RUBUSD can be seen at 100). A positive scenario could be Saudi Arabia self-limiting production as Riyadh is forced to finance a high deficit state budget 140 billion US dollars out of its reserves of 672 billion. Impressive spending will sooner or later force the kingdom to reconsider its strategy in the oil market. The only question is when this will happen. Next year could be the last or penultimate year that Saudi Arabia will stick to the current strategy. This will allow the kingdom to strengthen discipline within OPEC and show the rest "who is the boss." But there will be an objective obstacle to the growth of oil prices in the form of the marginal costs of shale oil production. Thus, in medium term oil prices will not fall below 40.0 USD per barrel for a long time, but will not rise above 70.0 USD either. In the medium term, the position of the Russian economy is unlikely to undergo drastic changes, but next year can bring unpleasant surprises. The right of the first move is behind Riyadh and it is impossible to predict exactly the time when the kingdom will change its strategy.

The rapid melting of the SWF and Reserve Fund to support the banking sector and military spending shorten the window of opportunity and narrow the prospects for the economy to reproduce the current state of affairs. Management of the economy in the near future will be reduced to manual regulation during a period of exacerbation, attempts to squeeze more taxes into the rest and increase the share of the public sector.

Cautious and close to power companies will survive in the construction market. Therefore, it seems expedient to carefully manage the inventory of unsold housing, without a sharp increase in construction volumes and careful handling of loan financing.