World financial crises dates. History of economic crises

The global economic crisis that hit the world's leading powers between 1929 and 1933 is still considered the worst in history. Its consequences were very severe and were of a global nature.

Causes of the global economic crisis

The causes of the world economic crisis consisted of several factors at once. The first is the crisis of overproduction, when industry and agriculture produced more than people could consume. The second is the lack of financial market regulators, which led to fraud in the securities market, and ultimately to the stock market crash.

Beginning of the global economic crisis

It all started with the United States, after that the crisis spread to countries Latin America. Due to high import duties (the government hoped to support the domestic manufacturer in this way), America “exported” it to Europe. Financial relationships between countries weakened due to numerous trade disputes. France was able to avoid the crisis in 1929, when it came to most European countries, but already in 1930 a difficult time came for her.

Which countries suffered the most during the global economic crisis?

So, the first blow fell on the United States - October 25, 1929 on the New York stock exchange there was a complete collapse of the shares. After this, the manifestations of the crisis began to grow like a snowball: during the crisis years, more than five thousand banks were closed, industrial production and agricultural production decreased by almost a third, the demographic situation was also deplorable - population growth stopped. These years went down in history as the Great Depression.

African Americans were the hardest hit by the Great Depression, as they were the first to be cut from their jobs.

Rice. 1. African American worker.

Germany also suffered greatly from the economic crisis - like America, this country did not have colonies where surplus goods could be sold. In 1932, which was the peak of the global crisis, its industry fell by 54% and unemployment was 44%.

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It is against the backdrop of crisis phenomena in the economy in politics and public life Germans increased the influence of the National Socialist Party under the leadership of Adolf Hitler, who subsequently unleashed the Second World War.

Rice. 2. Adolf Hitler.

Other world powers - England, France, Italy and Japan - suffered less from the crisis, but still the impact on their economies was significant.

All states were forced to look for their own ways out in this situation, they mainly consisted in strengthening the influence of the state on the economy and regulation financial institutions.

Consequences of the World Economic Crisis of 1929-1933

Despite the fact that overcoming the crisis in all world powers began quite early, the process still dragged on for 4 years and had rather difficult results.

Rice. 3. The market in Germany during the economic crisis.

Reduced industrial production and production in agriculture, about half of the working-age population was left without work, which led to poverty and hunger. Also aggravated interstate relations, reduced the volume of world trade. In addition, this first economic crisis soon gave rise to a second one, albeit on a smaller scale.

What have we learned?

In an article on history for grade 11, we talked briefly about the global economic crisis of 1929-1933, as well as what features and consequences it had for the great powers, which of them suffered the most and what it led to as a result .

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For almost two centuries of the formation and development of the world industrial society crises occurred in the economies of many countries, during which there was a growing decline in production, accumulation of unsold goods on the market, falling prices, the collapse of the system of mutual settlements, the collapse of banking systems, the ruin of industrial and trading firms, and a sharp jump in unemployment. Crises accompany the entire history of human society. At first, they manifested themselves as crises of underproduction of agricultural products, from the middle of the 19th century - as an imbalance between industrial production and effective demand.

The first global economic crisis that struck national economy and public life at the same time the United States, Germany, England and France occurred in 1857. The crisis began in the USA. The reason was the massive bankruptcies of railway companies and the collapse of the stock market. collapse on stock market provoked the crisis of the American banking system. In the same year, the crisis spread to England, and then to the whole of Europe. A wave of stock market unrest swept even across Latin America.

Rice. 1. Chronology of world crises

The next world economic crisis began in 1873 with Austria and Germany. The crisis of 1873 is seen as a major international financial crisis. The prerequisite for the crisis was a credit boom in Latin America, fueled by England, and a speculative boom in the real estate market in Germany and Austria. The Austro-German boom ended with a stock market crash in Vienna in May. Stock markets in Zurich and Amsterdam also collapsed. In the US, the banking panic began after a sharp fall in stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the bankruptcy of the chief financier and president of the United Pacific Railroad, Jay Cooke. The crisis spread from Germany to America due to the refusal of German banks to roll over loans. Since the American and European economies fell into a recession phase (a decline in production), Latin American exports fell sharply, which led to a drop in government budget revenues. It was the longest crisis in the history of capitalism: it ended in 1878.

In 1914, there was an international financial crisis caused by the outbreak of the First World War. The reason is the total sale of securities of foreign issuers by the governments of the USA, Great Britain, France and Germany to finance military operations. This crisis, unlike others, did not spread from the center to the periphery, but began almost simultaneously in several countries after the warring parties began to liquidate foreign assets. This led to a collapse in all markets, both commodity and money. The banking panic in the US, UK and some other countries was mitigated by the timely intervention of central banks.

1929-1933 - the time of the Great Depression. On October 24, 1929 (Black Thursday), the New York Stock Exchange experienced a sharp decline in stocks, marking the beginning of the largest economic crisis in the history of the world. The value of securities fell by 60-70%, fell sharply business activity, the gold standard for major world currencies was abolished. After the First World War, the US economy developed dynamically, millions of shareholders increased their capital, consumer demand grew rapidly. And all at once collapsed. Firms and factories closed, banks burst, millions of unemployed wandered in search of work.

Since the beginning of the 1970s, the world has entered a period of economic crisis associated with energy resources, and the Keynesian paradigm has been criticized by monetarists led by M. Friedman. They substantiated the need for a return to self-regulation of the economy by the market, a significant reduction in the degree of state intervention in economic life and the development of new forms and mechanisms of regulation (primarily monetary). In fact, the entire economic history of the twentieth century is a search for measures and forms of state intervention in the economic life of society. The pendulum swung between two extreme points - self-regulation (market) and regulation by the state, and in the event of a clear violation of this measure, which led to disproportions in the economy, i.e. to the crisis, the search for a new measure began, and the pendulum swung in the opposite direction.

In 1998 - the Russian crisis. One of the most severe economic crises in the history of Russia. Reasons for the default: huge public debt of Russia, low world prices for raw materials (Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas to the world market) and a pyramid of government short-term bonds, which the government of the Russian Federation could not pay on time.

By the beginning of the new millennium, a single world economy, in which real production, in accordance with the law of comparative advantage, is concentrated in Southeast Asia, China, Brazil, Russia, and India. And in industrial developed countries money is invested in the financial sector of the economy - first in stock financial instruments, and after the 2001 crisis - money flows from stock markets to the banking sector. The world economy and its national components "choked" from the freedom of the market and the uncontrolled growth of finance. Market regulators have ceased to cope with the establishment of the proportions of social reproduction and the development of the real and financial sectors. We need to find a new measure of correlation between market and non-market regulation. And, undoubtedly, the pendulum will rush towards strengthening state intervention in economic processes with the search for new forms, methods and levers of regulation that correspond to modern realities. This will manifest itself in the etatization (statization) of entire sectors of the economy, an increase in the share of redistribution of GNP through the state budget, in the adoption of strategic programs and, possibly, five-year development plans for specific countries. This is a period of state capitalism, and for the implementation of the new economic policy, the developed countries will need new Roosevelts. In the USA, B. Obama with his ideas of "American capitalism" became such a new figure.

The need for effective, efficient state regulation of the economy was one of the first to be realized by the team of V.V. Putin and his advisers. They replaced the liberal model with the neo-Keynesian model and carried out, first of all, the nationalization of oil and gas rent, and secondly, they formed a state institutional structure in the form of a rigid vertical of power.

Over the course of almost two centuries of the formation and development of the world industrial society, crises occurred in the economies of many countries, during which there was a growing decline in production, accumulation of unsold goods on the market, falling prices, the collapse of the system of mutual settlements, the collapse of banking systems, the ruin of industrial and trading firms, a sharp rise in unemployment.
In the literature, the economic crisis is characterized as an imbalance between supply and demand for goods and services.

Crises accompany all history human society. At first, they manifested themselves as crises of underproduction of agricultural products, from the middle of the 19th century - as an imbalance between industrial production and effective demand.

Until the 20th century, economic crises were limited to one, two or three countries, then they began to acquire an international character. Despite the fact that in recent decades the world community has created mechanisms to prevent global crises (strengthening state regulation business processes, creation of international financial institutions, monitoring, etc.), as the history of world economic cataclysms testifies, it is impossible to accurately predict, let alone avoid them. In Eurasia and America, for almost two centuries, economic crises have occurred about 20 times.

First world economic crisis, which dealt a blow to the national economy and public life at the same time the United States, Germany, England and France occurred in 1857. The crisis began in the USA. The reason was the massive bankruptcies of railway companies and the collapse of the stock market. The collapse in the stock market provoked a crisis in the American banking system. In the same year, the crisis spread to England, and then to the whole of Europe. A wave of stock market unrest swept even across Latin America. During the crisis, iron production in the United States fell by 20%, cotton consumption by 27%. In the UK, shipbuilding was hit the hardest, with output falling 26%. In Germany, the consumption of pig iron was reduced by 25%; in France - by 13% iron smelting and cotton consumption by the same amount; in Russia iron smelting fell by 17%, the output of cotton fabrics - by 14%.

Another global economic crisis began in 1873 from Austria and Germany. The crisis of 1873 is seen as a major international financial crisis. The prerequisite for the crisis was a credit boom in Latin America, fueled by England, and a speculative boom in the real estate market in Germany and Austria. The Austro-German boom ended with a stock market crash in Vienna in May. Stock markets in Zurich and Amsterdam also collapsed. In the US, the banking panic began after a sharp fall in stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the bankruptcy of the chief financier and president of the United Pacific Railroad, Jay Cooke. The crisis spread from Germany to America due to the refusal of German banks to roll over loans. As the American and European economies fell into a recession phase (a decline in production), Latin American exports fell sharply, which led to a drop in income state budgets. It was the longest crisis in the history of capitalism: it ended in 1878.

In 1914 There was an international financial crisis caused by the outbreak of the First World War. The reason is the total sale of securities of foreign issuers by the governments of the USA, Great Britain, France and Germany to finance military operations. This crisis, unlike others, did not spread from the center to the periphery, but began almost simultaneously in several countries after the warring parties began to liquidate foreign assets. This led to a collapse in all markets, both commodity and money. The banking panic in the US, UK and some other countries was mitigated by the timely intervention of central banks.

The next world economic crisis associated with post-war deflation (increase purchasing power national currency) and recession (decline in production) occurred in 1920-1922. The phenomenon was associated with banking and currency crises in Denmark, Italy, Finland, Holland, Norway, USA and UK.

1929-1933 - during the Great Depression

On October 24, 1929 (Black Thursday), the New York Stock Exchange experienced a sharp decline in stocks, marking the beginning of the largest economic crisis in the history of the world. The value of securities fell by 60-70%, business activity dropped sharply, and the gold standard for major world currencies was abolished. After the First World War, the US economy developed dynamically, millions of shareholders increased their capital, consumer demand grew rapidly. And all at once collapsed. The most solid stocks of the American Telephone and Telegraph Company, the General Electric Company and the General Engine Company lost up to two hundred points during the week. By the end of the month, shareholders had lost over $15 billion. By the end of 1929, the fall in stock prices reached a fantastic amount of 40 billion dollars. Firms and factories closed, banks burst, millions of unemployed wandered in search of work. The crisis raged until 1933, and its effects were felt until the end of the 1930s.

Industrial production during this crisis decreased in the US by 46%, in the UK by 24%, in Germany by 41%, in France by 32%. Stock prices of industrial companies fell in the US by 87%, in the UK by 48%, in Germany by 64%, in France by 60%. Unemployment reached colossal proportions. According to official data, in 1933 there were 30 million unemployed in 32 developed countries, including 14 million in the USA.

The first post-war world economic crisis began in late 1957 and continued until mid-1958. It covered the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and some other capitalist countries. Production industrial products in the developed capitalist countries decreased by 4%. The army of unemployed has reached almost 10 million people.

The economic crisis that began in the United States in late 1973 in terms of breadth of coverage of countries, duration, depth and destructive power, it significantly surpassed the global economic crisis of 1957-1958 and, in a number of characteristics, approached the crisis of 1929-1933. During the crisis in the United States, industrial production fell by 13%, in Japan by 20%, in Germany by 22%, in Great Britain by 10%, in France by 13%, in Italy by 14%. Share prices in just one year - from December 1973 to December 1974 - fell in the USA by 33%, in Japan by 17%, in the FRG by 10%, in Great Britain by 56%, in France by 33%, in Italy by 28%. The number of bankruptcies in 1974 compared with 1973 increased by 6% in the USA, by 42% in Japan, by 40% in the FRG, by 47% in Great Britain, and by 27% in France. By mid-1975, the number of completely unemployed in the developed capitalist countries had reached 15 million. In addition, more than 10 million were placed on part-time work or temporarily laid off from enterprises. The real incomes of working people have fallen everywhere.

In 1973, there was also the first energy crisis, which began with the filing of the OPEC member countries, which reduced the volume of oil production. Thus, black gold miners tried to raise the cost of oil on the world market. On October 16, 1973, the price of a barrel of oil rose by 67% - from $3 to $5. In 1974, the cost of oil reached $12.

Black Monday 1987. October 19, 1987 American stock index Dow Jones Industrial collapsed 22.6%. Following the American market, the markets of Australia, Canada, and Hong Kong collapsed. Possible cause of the crisis: the outflow of investors from the markets after a strong decline in the capitalization of several large companies.

The Mexican Crisis occurred in 1994-1995

In the late 1980s, the Mexican government pursued a policy of attracting investment to the country. In particular, officials opened a stock exchange and brought most of the Mexican state-owned companies to the site. In 1989-1994, foreign capital poured into Mexico. The first manifestation of the crisis was the flight of capital from Mexico: foreigners began to fear an economic crisis in the country. In 1995, $10 billion was withdrawn from the country. A crisis in the banking system began.

In 1997 - Asian crisis

The biggest drop in the Asian stock market since World War II. Crisis is a consequence of leaving foreign investors from Southeast Asian countries. The reason is the devaluation of the national currencies of the region and the high level of deficit in the balance of payments of the countries of Southeast Asia. According to economists, the Asian crisis has reduced global GDP by $2 trillion.

In 1998 - Russian crisis

One of the most severe economic crises in the history of Russia. Reasons for default: huge state debt Russia, low world prices for raw materials (Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas to the world market) and a pyramid of government short-term bonds, for which the Russian government was unable to pay on time. The exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in August 1998 - January 1999 fell 3 times - from 6 rubles. per dollar up to 21 rubles. per dollar.

Experts predicted the beginning of another powerful economic crisis by 2007-2008. In America, the collapse of the oil markets was predicted; in Eurasia, the complete defeat of the dollar.

The material was prepared on the basis of information from RIA Novosti and open sources

In the autumn of 1857, the US stock market collapsed. The reason is stock speculation railways and the subsequent collapse of the American banking system. In the same year, the crisis covers England, whose banks have invested in shares of American companies. A little bit later financial difficulties reach Germany.

Since 1849, the US economy has grown rapidly. Banks actively lend to enterprises. But as a result of falling grain prices, farmers who had taken out loans were unable to pay their debts. And the beginning of the general panic was a banal theft. The treasurer of a large provincial bank in Ohio stole a huge amount of cash. After that, the bank declared itself bankrupt. More than 200 banks closed in less than a month and a half. Lending has practically stopped. You can borrow money only at 100 percent per annum.

On October 13, 1857, people rushed to take their deposits, exchange banknotes for gold coins and cash bills. If in the morning the banks of New York still fulfilled their obligations and issued money, then by the end of the day almost all of them were bankrupt. This is followed by a collapse in stock prices on the New York Stock Exchange. Following America, several large banks in England went bankrupt, and real sector companies began to have problems. The textile and engineering industries were particularly affected. By December 1857, Germany was also under the blow of the crisis.

Protracted problems were avoided. By the end of 1858, the American economy began to recover. Bankrupt companies and banks were replaced by new enterprises. The Bank of England first tried to solve the problem by doubling the refinancing rate, but when this did not help, it went for unsecured banknotes. The measure proved to be quite effective. By the fall of 1858, the economy was growing. And Austria helped Germany to solve problems with non-payments, providing a loan in silver. A whole train was allocated for its delivery.

1873-1896. long depression

In May 1873, with the collapse of the stock exchange in Vienna, one of the most protracted financial crises throughout history. The reason is the rapid growth of real estate markets in Austria-Hungary and Germany. Developers were issued huge loans, for which many of them could not pay off. The panic that began on the stock exchanges in Europe is spreading to the United States, and then to Russia.

AT late XIX century, the governments of Austria-Hungary, France and Germany relied on capital construction. Banks were set up to provide loans to developers. The first mortgage papers. grew rapidly debt load construction companies and with it the price of real estate. On Black Friday, May 9, 1873, the stock exchange in Vienna collapsed. Following collapsed markets in Amsterdam and Zurich. After panic began on the stock exchanges in Europe, and German banks refused to extend the debt to American companies, the crisis spread to the United States.

As early as September 1873, a major American railroad developer, investment company Jay Cooke & Co. failed to pay off his debts. Due to a terrifying drop in quotes, the New York Stock Exchange was closed for several days. Massive bank failures began. Small and medium enterprises stopped issuing loans. Unemployment has reached 25-30 percent. Because of the massive layoffs in the mines of Pennsylvania, workers staged pogroms. The panic began.

It is believed that J.P. Morgan, one of America's most influential bankers, played a significant role in ending the financial crisis by providing $62 million in gold to the US Treasury Department. This made it possible to pay off sovereign obligations. Paradoxically, during the depression, corporations were created that exist to this day. For example, in 1876, Thomas Edison opened his laboratory. And a few years later, he created the Edison General Electric Company, which in 1896 was the first in history to enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

1929-1939. The Great Depression

There is no consensus on the causes of the Great Depression. Among the most probable is the disproportion between the commodity weight and volume Money; exchange "bubble" (investment in production in excess of what is necessary); an increase in customs duties on imports and, as a result, a decline in the purchasing power of the population. In addition to the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Germany and France were especially hard hit by the crisis.

One in six by 1933 was unemployed. The number of homeless people has increased sharply. Bethleem Steel fired 6,000 workers, evicted them from corporate-owned homes and demolished those homes to avoid paying property taxes. New York City Mayor Jimmy Walker urged theater owners to "show movies that uplift the spirit of Americans and rekindle hope in them."

During the years of the crisis, about 40 percent of banks went bankrupt, their depositors lost $2 billion in deposits. After the start of the Great Depression, ordinary citizens hated bankers. From 1931 to 1935, the famous Bonnie and Clyde, who robbed banks and terrified bank employees, aroused sincere admiration among ordinary Americans.

By the beginning of the depression, car production had reached 5 million cars a year. Already by 1932, it was reduced to 1.3 million cars, that is, by 75 percent compared with 1929. General Motors founder William Durant lost more than $40 million, almost all of his money. GM barely survived the depression by pursuing a drastic price cut policy.

1973-1975. oil crisis

The biggest energy crisis in history erupted in October 1973 when Syria and Egypt went to war with Israel. OPEC countries have reduced oil production and raised selling prices by 70 percent: first to the United States and the Netherlands, then to Israel's allies.

The number of unemployed in the United States has reached 15 million people. In the midst of the crisis, university lecturer John Sperling drew attention to the large number of aged students who wanted to change their profession. Thus, the idea of ​​developing a retraining program was born. Sperling founded the first commercial educational institution University of Phoenix and the Apollo Group. Now there are about 90 institutions across America with a capitalization of about $10.6 billion.

At the peak of the crisis, the price of a gallon of gasoline in the US rose from 30 cents to $1.2. In America, 85 percent of Americans used private cars. Lines at gas stations stretched for miles. For some time there was a rule: owners of cars with odd numbers were allowed to refuel only on odd days, and vice versa. The governments of Austria and Germany have introduced a ban on the use of cars on certain days of the week.

In the US, the authorities have taken exceptional measures to support ordinary citizens. The Bankruptcy Commission, formed in the United States in 1973, recommended changes to laws that would allow a person who has declared personal bankruptcy to retain part of the property, making it legally inaccessible to creditors. So, in Texas, a bankrupt had the right to keep his house, regardless of its value, and property worth up to 30 thousand dollars.

1987-1989. "Black Monday"

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Index crashed. Following the American stock market, on a wave of panic that caused an outflow of investors and a decrease in the capitalization of several largest transnational companies, stock exchanges in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Hong Kong collapsed, South Korea and many Latin American countries.

Since August 1982, the Dow Jones index has shown stable growth. By August 1987, the Dow Jones had doubled to 2,700. Meanwhile, in the economy, the rapid recovery growth after the recession of the 1970s was replaced by stable development. In early October, the Dow Jones gradually began to decline, and on Friday, October 16, the index lost 5 percent. The only person who predicted the collapse that happened three days later was Arch Crawford, owner of a company that provides astrological business consulting.

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed 22.6 percent. This crash was even worse than the stock market crash of October 28, 1929, which started the Great Depression. One possible explanation for the crash is computer trading programs used by traders. They took into account the dynamics of the market and issued orders to buy if the market promised growth, and to sell if it fell. And as soon as there was a turning point in the dynamics of the market after five years of growth, the programs issued a massive order to dump shares.

Contrary to the fears of economists and monetary authorities, there was no recession either in the US economy or in other countries whose stock exchanges felt the crash of 1987. The very next day, the Dow Jones rose 12 percent. True, then there were again ups and downs, but not as significant as on Black Monday. The crisis affected to a greater extent those people who worked in financial sector. In America, about 15 thousand brokers, traders, etc. have lost their jobs. Dow Jones reached its former heights only in 1989.

1998-1999. Russian default

August 17, 1998 Government Russian Federation declares default on government short-term bonds. The causes of the crisis are an acute shortage of funds and Russia's huge public debt. The ruble against the dollar fell almost four times in six months, the confidence of the population and investors was undermined, mass bankruptcies of small businesses and banks.

In May 1995, inflation in Russia was about 200 percent. To keep prices rising, the government decides to finance the budget deficit by issuing government short-term bonds. By May 1998, annual inflation is down to 7.5 percent. The GKO market lives according to the scheme: banks borrow money abroad, buy GKOs, and a few months later they sell them and pay off their debts. The yield of such operations is from 50 to 140 percent per annum. The authorities of the Russian Federation are constantly issuing new loans in order to pay off the previously placed ones. A financial pyramid is being created.

By the spring of 1998, monthly income federal budget amounted to 22 billion rubles, expenses - 25 billion rubles, and another 30 billion rubles to pay off domestic debt. On August 14, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announces on television that there will be no default. August 17 - default. The dollar exchange rate for the week from August 18 to 22 grows by only 60 kopecks. Next comes the resignation of the government. On August 25, the ruble immediately falls by 10 percent. Already in September 1998, inflation was 400 percent (in December it was 256 percent), and the ruble exchange rate collapsed almost four times by November 1998.

Despite the fact that the monthly inflation figures are huge and the Central Bank is issuing unsecured ruble, the refinancing rate remains at the level of 12.5 per annum. This provides real sector available loans. According to the results of 1999, as a result of import substitution, the industry is growing by 20 percent. World markets are recovering. During 1999, the price of oil doubles and reaches $27 per barrel. The outflow of money from banks stops already in March 1999. From the middle of 1999 to the end of the 3rd quarter of 2000, the banks' capital grew 2.5 times.

1997-2001. Asian crisis

In July 1997, the Asian financial crisis broke out. The reason is the rapid collapse of national currencies and stock indices of Southeast Asian countries, provoked by overheating of the economy, as well as unsustainable government and corporate debts. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand have been hardest hit by the crisis.

Before the crisis, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore collected more than half of the world's investment. But in the mid-1990s in the United States, in order to keep inflation in check, the monetary authorities raised the refinancing rate. The countries of Southeast Asia, in turn, are also raising their own rates - Asian currencies are strengthening, the competitiveness of products on the world market is falling due to rising costs. At the same time, the corporate and public debt of Asian countries continues to grow rapidly.

On May 14, 1997, currency speculators, from George Soros's Quantum fund to Julian Robertson's Tiger Management Corp, attack the Thai baht. On July 2, the baht collapsed. Within a month there was a collapse of the Indonesian rupiah, the Philippine peso and the Malaysian ringgit. In Indonesia, the crisis has led to massive riots and a change state regime. South Korea has also been hit hard. At the beginning of December, the government assured that Short-term liabilities corporations do not exceed 30-40 billion dollars, and by 1998 they exceeded 150 billion.

The International Monetary Fund has allocated more than $110 billion to overcome the consequences of the crisis to the countries of Southeast Asia. Of which 57 billion were provided to South Korea under strict conditions: to sell foreign companies two largest national banks; allow foreign banks to the financial transactions in Korea, and most importantly, to liquidate companies (chaebols), which accounted for about a third of GDP. National economies countries of Southeast Asia by 2001 overcame the crisis and resumed growth.

2008 — ?

A new money bubble, artificially created by the authorities, is brewing in the economy, Mikhail Khazin believes. If the authorities not only in Russia, but also in other countries do not have time to feel the moment when the money bubble they created will continue to grow without their help, and are late in extracting money from the economy, we will face hyperinflation, chaos in the financial markets and most likely a new recession .

Since the beginning of the year, there has been an ever-widening gap in the global economy - financial markets going up, while the real sector of the economy is falling. Common sense says that this situation cannot last forever: either the top of the scissors will pull the bottom towards itself, or, on the contrary, the financial markets will begin to fall to the level determined by the state of the real sector, and the economy will go into a new round of crisis. All that is needed to test this hypothesis is to stop pouring public money into the economy and see if private demand returns.

As a matter of fact, all the statements of the representatives of the monetary authorities of the world's leading economies, the IMF and many other "experts" about overcoming the recession in the near future pursue one single goal - the restoration of private investment demand and lending to the economy. But is it possible to restore investment demand in a clear excess production capacity? The Chinese authorities, for example, see this as one of the key problems. In fact, you can, if you close your eyes to the fact that we are talking about the formation of a new financial bubble.

What is the difference current situation from pre-crisis? The fact that the bubble being inflated today is man-made. Its formation is either budgetary or printed money. But the further the bubble grows, the more panic the financial authorities themselves and market participants fall into. What happens if this man-made bubble behaves as expected of it? If mortgage lending to the real sector resumes financial assets in pre-crisis scales and proportions, this will inevitably cause a sharp surge in inflation, with a high degree of probability capable of developing into hyperinflation.

To avoid inflation, it is necessary to accurately determine the moment when the bubble will start to work in a self-supporting mode, and then you need to quickly begin to withdraw money from the economy previously injected into it. If this is done a little earlier than it should be, the economy will enter a new round of crisis. And it will be impossible to pull it out of there, since all the resources were spent during the previous cycle. If the monetary authorities are a little late, then inflation, chaos in the financial markets and, most likely, a new recession are inevitable.

As for the Russian monetary authorities, they will simply wait to see what the actions of the American Federal Reserve System, the European Central Bank and other global financial institutions will lead to. Wait and hope that world economy really come to life and the demand for Natural resources pull up Russian export, followed by the remnants of the real sector oriented towards domestic demand.

In fact, there are several most likely development scenarios Russian economy. The first, basic one, is based on the assumption that in 2010 the world economy will be able to overcome the crisis, restart lending processes and ensure stable demand for raw materials. And this will largely depend on how the governments of Western countries will be able to ensure the sustainable growth of financial markets (reduce the volatility of trading). If the financial markets normalize, the real sector of the economy will have reliable (from the point of view of banks) collateral for lending in the form of shares and bonds. The growth of the real sector will begin. Then the forecast of both the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance on the Russian economy and budget for 2010 is justified. Growth of budget revenues in 2010 may be up to 5 percent, while the economy will grow by about 1.5-2 percent.

However, there is another option - the authorities will not be able to normalize the growth of financial markets, then the world economy in 2010 will continue to fall. Russian government will have to decide on the devaluation of the ruble. The critical moment for making such a decision will be November 2009 (before that moment, devaluation for every 10 percent will provide one to one and a half additional months of financing the budget deficit at the expense of Reserve Fund). In my opinion, this decision would be the right one, as it will allow restarting growth in the Russian economy, regardless of what happens in the world. In the event of a late devaluation or its absence, with an unfavorable development of events in the world economy, it will inevitably worsen, and significantly, macroeconomic indicators Russian economy in the second half of 2010. A decline in GDP comparable to 2009 figures is possible. If the devaluation is carried out in time, the injection of money into the Russian economy can and should be increased, despite the significant increase in inflation.

It turns out that if foreign states manage to feint with restarting the world economy, Russia will again get the opportunity to “sit on the pipe”. Only we will not have any innovative way of development. If Bernanke (head of the Fed) and Trichet (head of the ECB) fail in their operation, then the financial markets will inevitably begin to fall, and with them oil prices may reach a level of 30-32 dollars per barrel or even lower. Russia in this case runs the risk of falling into a situation similar to the beginning of the 90s of the last century.

But we have a chance to get out of the crisis on our own through a deep devaluation of the ruble. That's when the economy will definitely have to be completely reformed.

Development forecasts

Financial crises are an essential attribute of the development of the capitalist mode of production, its phase transitions. Crises have an objective and subjective basis. On the one hand, financial crises are a consequence of the accumulation of structural disproportions in the economy, which are formed during the period of changing technological cycles and restructuring the institutional foundations of the current reproductive system. On the other hand, financial crises are a reaction to irrational human behavior. Financial crises are caused by the disintegration of the money and capital markets, when, due to extraordinary investment in the capital market, the real sector loses those incomes that usually provide demand for the final products of commodity producers. In history, there are 11 major financial crises that occurred as a result of this disintegration and led to the formation of financial bubbles.

• 1.Tulip bulb price bubble in the Netherlands, 1636 The first big stock market game began in Holland and was called tulip mania (1634-1637). Rare tulip bulbs brought from Andrianopol (modern Turkey) were equated with a luxury item. Buyers tried to enrich themselves by purchasing bulbs and their subsequent profitable resale. Since the tulip ripening period was 6-8 months, many buyers made advance payments for the "invisible" product. An irrational attraction to an overseas plant led to the fact that in the midst of exchange trading for a copy of a certain breed of tulip, they paid with new carriages with horses and harness, land plots, houses, paintings, gold and silver utensils. When the most rational analysts questioned further investment in this market, the supernatural qualities of the tulip disappeared and the bulbs could not be sold at any price.
• 2. Bubble prices on shares of the Mississippi Company, 1720 d. The first to conduct large-scale speculation in the sale of shares was the Scotsman John Law, financial innovation which caused a great financial crisis in France in 1720. The architect of the innovation financial system believed that continuous prosperity in the economy is achieved through an excess of paper and credit money. Law's system was based on two principles:
• 1) pursuing by banks a policy of credit expansion, when the amounts of loans many times exceeded the reserves of gold and silver coins;
• 2) the state status of the bank that pursued an expansionary credit policy.

Lo's mistake was to identify monetary expansion with capital. Law associated the uncontrolled expansion of the money supply with a similar reproduction of capital, wealth, and employment. However, in reality, expanded production requires real material and labor resources which cannot be replaced by a loan. That is why the stock pyramid of the Mississippi Company, founded by Law and financed by government loans, collapsed. Law's actions were not a hoax, but his financial collapse was the result of two erroneous beliefs: that stocks and bonds are money, and that issuance a large number money in response to an increase in demand does not cause inflation.

• 3.Bubble share prices of the Company Southern seas, 1720 In parallel with the Mississippi Company in France, the South Sea Company operated in England. British investors closely followed the activities of Law and from May 1719 began to actively buy up the shares of the Mississippi Company. The bubble that arose in England in the course of speculation in the shares of the South Sea Company was due to the need to counter the constant outflow of British capital to Paris. From January to August 1720, the value of the company's shares increased 10 times. The bubble burst in September. In June 1720, in England, the “Puffy Companies Act” was passed (repealed in 1825), according to which it was forbidden to form new joint-stock companies without parliamentary approval. It is worth noting that in reality this law protected the South Sea Company from competition from other companies, providing it with a monopoly position in the development of the territories of Central and South America.
• 4. The US Stock Market Price Bubble, 1927-1929 In 1923, a historic rise in the US stock market began, lasting six years. All this time, the growth in the value of shares was determined by fundamental indicators: the income of companies, their development prospects, and macroeconomic stability. However, in early 1928, a speculative frenzy seized the masses of investors. As buyers ran short of cash, Wall Street banks began offering to buy shares on credit with on-call and margin loans. With the FRS refinancing rate of 5%, the cost of commercial loans reached 12% per annum. Such high yield banking operations attracted capital from all over the world.

In the spring of 1929, an overproduction crisis began in the American economy, prompting stock market players to sell off securities. The bubble burst on Black Thursday, October 24, 1929. On that day, a record number of shares were sold - 12,894,650, most of them for next to nothing. The October fall is considered the beginning of the Great Depression, which took possession of the country for the next decade. In July 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 89% from its pre-crisis record. From 1929 to 1934, according to various estimates, between 8,000 and 17,000 banks failed in the United States. The total amount of money supply during this time decreased by a third.

• 5. Wave of bank loans to Mexico and other developing countries, 1970s In the 1970s, leading international banks, located in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, London, Tokyo, actively increased the amount of lending to governments and state-owned companies in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina (including through recycling petrodollars). The total external debt of Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and others developing countries increased from $125 billion in 1972 to $800 billion in 1982. During this period, it was widely believed that governments would not fail. Sovereign borrowers were careful to pay interest on loans on time, but they got the money they needed to do so from new loans. In the autumn of 1979, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) moved to a more rigid monetary policy, resulting in a significant increase in interest rates on securities, which had a negative impact on the conditions of external lending. In 1982 there was a sharp depreciation mexican peso, the Brazilian cruzeiro, the Argentine peso and the currencies of other developing countries, stock prices in these countries collapsed, and most banks went bankrupt due to losses on delinquent loans.
• 6. Bubble in the real estate and stock market in Japan, 1980s.

In the first half of the 1980s. The dollar strengthened by 50% against the currencies of other leading economies - the Japanese yen, the German mark, the French franc and the British pound sterling. In 1985, an agreement was reached between the United States, France, Great Britain, West Germany and Japan (the Plaza Agreement) on a coordinated intervention to depreciate the dollar against the Japanese yen and the German mark. As a result of the revaluation of the yen from 257 in 1984 to 122 yen per dollar in 1987, Japanese exports largely lost their international competitiveness, which negatively affected Japan's economic growth.

Hoping to revive the stock market and the real estate market, the Bank of Japan lowered interest rate. It was assumed that due to this recovery effect, Japanese industry, hitherto mainly export-oriented, would be able to adapt to domestic demand, which would entail extraordinary growth in all economic sectors, as well as an expansion in consumer demand, accompanied by investments in plants and equipment. However, instead of expanding domestic demand expansionary monetary policy contributed to the formation of a giant bubble in the stock market and the real estate market in Japan. The bubble was punctured in early 1990 when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates sharply. The depreciation of stocks and real estate led to a loss of national wealth of 1,500 trillion yen, which was equivalent to three years of Japan's GDP.

• 7. Bubble in real estate and equity markets in Finland, Norway and Sweden, 1985-1989. At the same time, three northern countries - Finland, Norway, Sweden - fully reproduced the Japanese experience of a price bubble in the real estate market. The bubble that formed in the Scandinavian countries was financed by loans from offshore divisions of Japanese banks. At the same time that Japanese regulators loosened restrictions on Japanese banks' activities abroad, regulators in the Nordic countries eased restrictions on their banks' foreign borrowing. In the second half of the 1980s. stock prices and prices real estate in Norway have tripled, in Sweden and Finland - 5 times. This was followed by a sharp drop in prices and the bankruptcy of credit institutions.
• 8. Bubble in the real estate and stock markets in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and some other Asian countries, 1992-1997. After a significant revaluation of the yen and a slowdown in the US, Japanese and American multinational corporations began to actively invest capital in East Asian countries in order to profit from the low cost of labor in this region. This led to a boom in the stock and mortgage markets(in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia in the first half of the 1990s, share prices rose by 300-500%), as well as a sharp increase in demand for foreign loan, including to pay for the trade deficit of Asian countries. Due to the influx of foreign capital, the currencies of Asian countries were overvalued. When currency speculators realized that these countries did not have the ability to maintain a fixed exchange rate they started selling national currencies in exchange for dollars. The central banks of Asian countries, even through the large-scale use of foreign exchange reserves, could not maintain a fixed exchange rate. Investors lost confidence in the monetary authorities and withdrew their capital. As a result of the Asian crisis in 1998-2000. production of the world product decreased by 2 trillion US dollars. This was approximately 6% world GDP; 10 million people were left unemployed, about 50 million people in Asia alone fell below the poverty line.
• 9. The wave of foreign investment in the Mexican economy, 1990-1993 gg. In 1985, liberal reforms began in Mexico in accordance with the recommendations developed by American economist John Williams, known as the Washington Consensus. The reforms included, among other things, the restructuring of the sovereign debt of Latin American countries by converting them into a new type of bonds (“Brady bonds”), denominated mainly in dollars and secured by long-term US Treasury bonds. This reduced the cost of maintenance external debt overcome the budget deficit and increase the attractiveness of the country for foreign investors. The next step in opening Mexico to foreign investment was the initiative of President C. Salinas to create a free trade zone between Mexico, the United States and Canada. In preparation for this agreement, a strict policy of contraction of the money supply was pursued. Significant inflow foreign capital led to an increase in the price of the peso, an increase in the trade balance deficit to 8% of GDP in 1993, and external debt to 60% of GDP. At the same time, reforms and capital inflows had little effect on the pace of economic growth in the country.

The Mexican financial crisis of 1994 began with a peasant uprising in the impoverished state of Chiapas, a region that had virtually no economic and political reforms. Another factor was the assassination of the dominant political party's top presidential candidate, Donaldo Colosio, who enjoyed popular support. As a result of political destabilization, there was a sharp decrease in the inflow of foreign investment, the loss of international reserves, the devaluation of the peso, the massive ruin of banks and companies. In 1995, Mexico's real GDP fell by 7%, industrial production - by 15%.

10. Bubble in the OTC stock market in USA, 1995-2000

This bubble was formed as a result of a sharp increase in the shares of Internet companies. Some companies that operate in the field information technologies, such as Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, Intel, have abandoned the usual procedures for listing on stock exchanges, preferring electronic trading securities in the US over-the-counter market (NASDAQ). In 1990, the value of shares traded on the NASDAQ was 11% of the value of shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. In 1995 this indicator reached 19%, in 2000 - 42%. In December 1996, US Federal Reserve Chairman A. Greenspan called the situation on the US stock market "irrational exuberance." The degree of overheating of the New York Stock Exchange in 2000 was comparable to the situation in 1929 in terms of the ratio "price/earnings per share" (price/earnings, abbreviated as P/E). In 2000, the P/E ratio for Dow Jones stocks was 50, while for New Economy companies it ranged from 100 to 1000. By comparison, the normal P/E ratio has historically fluctuated around 12-15. In 2000, the Dow Jones index rose to over 12,000 points, and the NASDAQ index to over 5,000. US stock prices began to decline in the fall of 2000. Over the next three years, NASDAQ stock prices fell by 80%

11. World financial and economic crisis, 2008 - present. As a result of the Fed's policy of cheap money mortgage loans in the United States have become unprecedentedly affordable even for the poorest segments of the population. In addition, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, passed in 1998, effectively annulled the provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. commercial banks it was not forbidden to engage in all types of investment banking activities and it was allowed to take risks, analogues of which at one time led to the Great Depression of 1929-1933. In its turn investment banks turned into commercial and began to create credit money. This led to an imbalance in terms in the structure of assets and liabilities of the American banking system.

The growth rate of the value of financial assets has not only lost its link to the monetary base, but also its link with fundamental factors. For example, in July 2006, the capitalization of the American stock market was $11.5 trillion, and a year later it reached $15 trillion. For comparison, in the same period, US GDP grew by only 5% (or $650 billion). ). Such a fundamental factor as, for example, labor productivity, showed the usual growth rate for America. So the only explanation for the $3.5 trillion gain in US corporate value in just one year was over-optimism about the future.

development of the US economy. A wave of excessive optimism has been replaced by a wave of excessive pessimism. In one year, the capitalization of the US stock market (from July 2007 to July 2008) decreased by 30%, destroying the value of $ 3.5 trillion - exactly what was created a year earlier. Similar situation happened on American market real estate. In the period 2000-2007. US house prices have more than doubled. Once again, excessive optimism was the driving force. By early 2009, US house prices had fallen by more than 30% from their record levels in mid-2006. As US home values ​​began to fall, the bubble burst.

• On-call loan - short-term commercial loan, which the borrower undertakes to repay at the first request of the lender.
• Margin trading- conducting speculative trading operations using money and (or) goods provided to the trader on credit secured by a specified amount - margin. A margin loan differs from a conventional loan in that the amount of money received (or the value of the goods received) is usually several times higher than the amount of collateral (margin).
• Kobyakov A.B., Khazin M.A. The decline of the dollar empire and the end of Pax Americana. M.: Veche, 2003. 368 p.