According to the report of the Central Intelligence Agency, in December 2013 it amounted to $9577000000000, which is almost 4 times more country's GDP, which is equal to $251000000000. In other words, for every dollar of GDP, there is $4.36 of debt. At first glance, this statistic is shocking, because this indicator- the third in the world after the European Union and the United States, and the domestic gross product of these giants of the world economy is many times higher than the British one, and, therefore, the ratio external debt to GDP is quite different. However, the problem of the UK's external debt is by no means paramount and is not exaggerated as much as many other economic topics.
To whom did the British owe?
If we consider the distribution of debt concentration, then the largest part of it lies on commercial banks Great Britain (55%), 28.7% - in the non-financial sector, 8% each - in the state and direct investment, but the Central Bank modestly pulls its burden of 0.3%. The more significant part of the debt is borne by the banking sector of the country, the greater the share of short-term debt. And the preponderance in the distribution of debts for repayment towards short-term debts increases the risks of the country. In total, short-term debts of the UK amount to 68.3%, only Japan has more: 77.8%. Thus, the overall picture is not at all positive.
In general, such a ratio of GDP and external debt was observed, for example, before the First World War. Naturally, the geopolitical situation today, as well as the hysterical state of many of the world's major economies, threatens to turn into a major crisis or even an armed conflict, the likelihood of which, however, decreases with the development of integration processes and ever closer ties between countries. The UK must steer a difficult course: reduce the deficit state budget and help reduce household debt - without limiting GDP growth.
Economists are not jumping to conclusions
Despite the rather depressing statistics, it cannot be said that economists everywhere are sounding the alarm because of the large debts of the UK.
Debt structure
Consider the structure of the external debt of the UK:
- United States - €578.6 billion
- Germany - €379.3 billion
- Spain - €316.6 billion
- France - €209.9 billion
- Ireland - €113.5 billion
- Japan - €122.7 billion
The largest creditors are Germany, Spain and the USA. However, the probability of bankruptcy is low as the country owns a significant amount of high quality assets.
A more or less serious threat to the UK banking system is the debt problems of Ireland, Spain and Italy. However, these countries receive support from other EU members and also do not plan to fall into a deep systemic crisis.
Expert opinion
Correspondent news agency"Business News" discussed financial difficulties UK with an independent expert in the field of international economic relations Ruslan Bulatov. According to the interlocutor of "Business News", the UK will cope with the payment of debt obligations.
DN: Can we talk about the hopeless situation that the UK is in?
Ruslan Bulatov: I doubt that those experts who say about the collapse of the UK economy are right. The thesis about the negative impact of large public debt has no direct evidence, because history clearly shows the possibilities developed countries even those living in debt. Thus, the United States has a debt of 18 trillion dollars, while its economy is growing steadily. The UK has a freely convertible currency - in this way, the country's authorities will be able to amortize their debt through inflation and quantitative easing, by including printing press- developed Western countries will remain on horseback for a long time, all forecasts about the imminent collapse of their economies are nothing more than horror stories. Now you need to think about
World debt levels
Against the backdrop of another debt crisis flaring up, let's discuss this issue together.
These are the data that recently once again alarmed the Internet communities, tirelessly following the successes or failures of the Russian authorities:
"Russia's external debt last year increased by $83 billion 408 million, or 15.4%, and as of January 1, 2013 amounted to $623 billion 963 million compared to $540 billion 555 million as of January 1, 2012, according to the Bank's data Russia." (proof)
Horror? Or not? What does it mean? Yes, what only we do not hear from time to time: about fiscal cliffs, and about the periodic US default, and about the complete bankruptcy of Greece, they even calculated how high the mountain of money that makes up the US national debt will be.
Each of you probably at least once thought about this question: who do they all owe? Almost every country owes something, and many of them already owe exorbitant amounts (it seems to me that no one expects that the debt will be repaid). If we turn to brainy economists, they will put forward their theories here, which we still won’t understand. Let's all together try to figure this out somehow in a simpler way, so to speak for the layman and with vivid examples ...
To begin with, let me remind you how the public debt arises. The total amount of the state's obligations for issued and outstanding government loans, received by the creditor and interest on them, issued by the state guarantees, represents the public debt.
Every government in its activities strives to ensure that revenue side budget equals spending. In reality, the expenditure side exceeds the revenue, resulting in a budget deficit. The most economically developed countries, as a rule, constantly have a deficit budget (from 2-3% of GDP).
To cover the government budget deficit, the state applies for a loan to national banks, as well as the issuance of state valuable papers- bonds. As a result, it appears and grows state debt, because government bonds and credit debentures states.
under foreign debt refers to the obligations of the state arising in foreign currency. These may be loans from foreign governments, credit institutions, firms and international financial institutions, it could also be foreign investment.
Lately, in particular, there has been a lot of talk about the difficult situation in the Eurozone. That there "bang", then here. Greece either comes out or does not come out. Let's take a look at the debt penetration in Europe first. The data is a little outdated, but the tendency to hike and understand the essence of the issue will be enough ...
This is the official 2011 ESCP Europe study on debt cross-penetration in Europe.
The arrows show who owes whom and how much, the thickness of the arrows - the size of interstate debts, circles with the names of countries - the total amount of debt (the area of the circle is proportional to the size of the country's total debt). Pay attention to England and Italy
But among other things, it is clear that there are also counter-debts. In modern banking system it is considered normal - when everyone owes everyone. Any reasonable person in such a situation will offer to simplify the picture by making counter offsets. Well, let's make them.
At the same time, one must understand that in reality it is impossible to offset debts - they are issued with different conditions, different terms repayments and so on, in addition, such an offset will nullify or seriously undermine working capital many financial institutions - which will cause a collapse in payments and the subsequent growing coma of a general crisis. There are many different nuances.
But virtually we can make such a - purely formal-digital - netting. Let's look at the result:
It is clearly seen that France's debt has practically vanished. And they owe her a lot - Italy, a little less Germany, and even less (but also a lot) Spain. In general, if anyone is doing well with debts, it is France.
But whoever has very big problems is also clearly visible, this is England. England owes Germany and Spain gigantic (and approximately equal) sums, and few people owe her very little.
Italy is also in a bad position - it owes a lot to France, and no one owes anything significant to it.
Oddly enough, everything is not so hopeless for Spain - it owes the French and the Germans, but the British owe it even more, and the debts of Portugal are also rather big. Well, the Germans, and even more so, practically alles ordnung - yes, the debt to France is great, but the same England and Spain owe much more to Germany.
Of course, the amount of debt in itself is not important - what matters is its ratio to the country's GDP. It is because of this ratio that the catastrophe was created first in Greece, Portugal and Ireland (PIG). But the main European debt bubble lurked in England. He will show himself.
data for 2011
But about the ratio with GDP, this is a very interesting and often forgotten point by many. Here we will just come to the assessment of the news that was at the beginning of the post.
In the economic report of the European Commission published in mid-May in 2013. government debt is projected to increase in the vast majority of eurozone states, in particular in Spain, France, Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Analytical Information Service international organization creditors (WOC) conducted a study of the volume of public debt different countries world and forecasts of their increase.
In 2010, the total public debt of the world's countries exceeded $41 trillion, but at that time the increase in liabilities could be justified by the desire of governments to quickly overcome the consequences of the crisis and return to pre-crisis levels. At the end of 2011 statistical reports showed a positive trend in various economic indicators, including GDP growth in many countries. However, the government debts of the 50 largest economies of the world also increased and reached the amount of $55 trillion. The total external debt of these states exceeded $65 trillion. Thus, the economic growth last year was due to government injections, including through borrowing from non-residents.
As can be seen from the table, the leaders of the rating of countries in terms of external debt in most cases occupy the same positions as a year earlier. External debt of the United States in 2011 became equal GDP, but in the ranking for this indicator, the United States is far from being the leader. The external debt of Ireland is almost 11 times greater than the volume of GDP, Great Britain - 5 times, the Netherlands and Hong Kong - 4 times. Only Japan has an external debt ratio below 50%, but this is probably the only positive moment in the debt situation of this country. The level of Japanese government debt is going through the roof, as shown in the table below.
Compared with the results of 2010. in the top ten, everyone remained in their places, with the exception of the UK and China. The latter managed to reduce the sovereign debt by 5%, which allowed him to switch places with the UK, which continues to increase its debts (+17%). In addition, in the top ten, China has the best ratio of public debt to GDP (25.8%).
The US national debt continues to grow, and its ratio to GDP has already exceeded 100%. But you need to understand that the US economy is the largest in the world, in addition, the United States has the opportunity to generate seigniorage. This means that even with the continuing trend towards an increase in the debt burden, the American economy still has room for growth.
Japan with a public debt of 226% of GDP leads the world
Most high level debt burden is recorded in Japan, where the volume of public debt to GDP is 226%. The country continues to deal with the consequences of the tsunami mainly through domestic financial injections into national currency which explains such a high debt burden. Following Japan in this indicator is Greece, in third place is Italy, which uses every opportunity to avoid the fate of Greece. At the end of 2011 Italy's GDP grew by 7%, while France and Germany - by 8% and 9% respectively. In general, for the Eurozone in 2011. turned out quite well - economic growth was observed in all countries of the bloc with the exception of Greece (-1%).
Source: IMF data, WOC calculations
The highest level of debt burden per inhabitant was also recorded in Japan - 105 thousand dollars of public debt. In Ireland, which ranks second, this figure is more than twice as low (49.9 thousand dollars). As can be seen from the ranking, last year debt load in the top 20 increased by more than 10% on average, with the exception of Sweden and Portugal, where there is a slight decrease in this indicator (by 4% and 2% respectively).
Russia is in good positions on all three indicators. The level of external debt to GDP in the country does not exceed 30%, its growth for the year was only 6%. The level of public debt is even lower and does not exceed 10% of GDP, and each Russian has $1,247 in debt. As can be seen from the table below, almost all debt is covered by international reserves.
Source: CIA data, WOC calculations
For several years, the top three in the ranking in terms of the volume of international reserves did not change, and a rather significant gap remained between the third and fourth places. But at the end of 2011 Saudi Arabia overtook Russia to take third place. Apparently, the government Arab country builds up a reserve for a rainy day when oil runs out. To get into second place, Saudi Arabia needs to double reserve fund. This is possible if oil prices remain high and Japan has to internal problems will begin to use gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Forecast of the growth of public debt in 2012-2015.
Source: IMF data
According to the IMF, by 2015 public debt will continue to grow. The United States will remain the leader in this indicator - the country will overcome the bar of $20 trillion in three years. Japan will retain second place, and by 2015. its government debt will exceed $15 trillion. the total debt of the top ten countries will reach almost 55 trillion dollars, that is, the volume that today is the debt of 50 states.
We present to your attention the data of the TOP 10 countries in the world in terms of GDP in 2012, as well as the GDP of some CIS countries in 2012, prepared on the basis of the CIA World Book of Facts (USA). According to the information provided, the top three in terms of GDP has not changed, and is still the first place for the United States, the second for China, and the third for Japan. Russia in terms of GDP rose from 10th place in 2011 to 9th place in 2012, overtaking India. In addition to Russia, the top 100 countries with the largest GDP from the CIS countries included Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.
Countries Volume of GDP, USD
1. US 15497.321 billion
2. China 7743.144 billion
3. Japan 6124.899 billion
4. Germany 3706.970 billion
5. France 2889.708 billion
6. Brazil 2617.987 billion
7. England 2603.880 billion
8. Italy 2287.704 billion
9. Russia 2117.236 billion
10. India 2012.760 billion
32. Ukraine 359.900 billion
54. Kazakhstan 167.600 billion
61. Belarus 105.200 billion
74. Azerbaijan 65.410 billion
75. Uzbekistan 64.150 billion
And now another informative picture from Wikipedia! Those who are interested can search our country.
Under the spoiler is a table of all countries of the world, sorted by the ratio of external debt to GDP (in percent)
As we can see, external debt is not growing much, but domestic public debt is much stronger.
By the way, here I saw an entertaining flash drive. CLICK ON THE PICTURE BELOW and you can see how the debts of the world have changed in the past and what forecast awaits them in the future
But the latest news Italy's sovereign debt has reached a historic high and exceeded two trillion euros According to a statement released today by the Central Bank of the country /Bank DITalia/, in October, external debt amounted to 2 trillion 14 billion euros. (link )
Well, in the topic that concerns debts, I cannot ignore the most interesting country in this regard - the United States. Remember, not so long ago, everyone on the Internet looked with curiosity at what the US national debt looks like.
Let's remember this.
Well, or here's another option for the US debt!
If we consider each country separately, you might think that it owes another country. But no, other countries also owe someone... In fact, it's no secret to anyone that states owe money to various banking structures.
Any sane person wonders: “Why doesn’t the government just print the necessary amount of money?” The most surprising thing is that no high-ranking official or venerable professor of economics can give a clear and precise answer to this question! All of them repeat in unison the learned phrase that if you print money, there will be inflation. At the same time, none of them can explain the difference: take 10 billion USD. in international bank(sell bonds of some foreign investment company) or borrow them from the domestic consumer by issuing bonds on favorable conditions, the guarantor of which is the state itself with its innumerable natural resources and land.. After all, there is only one effect for the economy - 10 billion USD will fall into it. By the way, money can be withdrawn from the economy at any time, if necessary.
Inflation is determined by the ratio of the volume of money supply and the volume of trade, and where did money supply- it does not matter, just as the proportions of the components of the turnover do not matter.
Here is another interesting, but unfortunately not new, diagram of mutual debts. Click on the picture and you will be able to select a country to visualize mutual debt.
It is absolutely clear that only economically justified internal borrowings, which do not increase the monetary base and it is absolutely not clear why the people, represented by the state, should depend on some international banking corporations and pay them.
Unfortunately, it must be admitted that most governments developed countries lost the opportunity to fully exercise their main function- control function. Central banks are not controlled by governments, therefore, they cannot be a full-fledged tool for achieving national goals.
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Here is what else I would advise you to read in economics:
According to Standard & Poor's, one of the top three most influential rating agencies, 40% of the world's sovereign debt is owned by monarchies. At the same time, the agency focuses on the difference between absolute monarchs, who have a significant impact on politics in their countries, and constitutional monarchs, who play the symbolic role of the head of state.
All absolute monarchies are concentrated in the Arab world, and their public debt is less than 1% of the total. However, constitutional monarchies tend to have higher credit ratings based on the increased stability and predictability of their policies.
Public debt is made up of debt held by the central government, regional and local authorities, state enterprises and organizations.
5. Absolute monarchies
They account for 0.4% of the global public debt. This reflects the high budget figures countries. They do not need to make large borrowings from outside. Of the absolute monarchies, the most best rating("AA") have Qatar and emirate Abu Dhabi.
4. Constitutional monarchies
Norway, Spain, Sweden, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and Denmark make up the majority of the debtor kingdoms (5.9% of the public debt). Spain has a satisfactory credit rating("BBB"), all other countries - the highest ("AAA").
3. States belonging to the British Commonwealth of Nations
The top three in terms of global public debt in 2015 are countries under the protectorate of Queen Elizabeth II. She is the head of more than a dozen countries within the Commonwealth - including Great Britain,Canada, Bahamas and papua new guinea. The total public debt of these states amounted to 8.2%. Wherein Great Britain, Canada and Australia have a long-term credit rating of "AAA" according to Standard & Poor's.
2. Japan
Tokyo's public debt is $11 trillion, which is 25.4% of the total debt or 246.14% of GDP. Since the early 1990s Japan is in constant stagnation. The policy pursued by the Japanese government to overcome the crisis only increases the level of debt. Currently the government Japan spends almost half of its total tax revenue to pay off a huge debt. Despite this, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds remains at a surprisingly low level, under 1%.
1. Non-monarchist states
These countries account for 60.2% of the world public debt. The largest debtor is Greece. Its debt as a percentage of GDP is 172.73%. In July 2015, the IMF released a debt sustainability report for Greece. It states that due to the loosening of the policy during last year and the recent deterioration of the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment, Greece's public debt has become highly unsustainable. Slightly less government debt Italy- 133.7% of GDP. Russia is not included in the top 20 countries with the largest public debt; at the beginning of 2015, the state's external debt amounted to $41 billion, excluding debts of state-owned companies, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and banks.
At present, many Russians are interested in information concerning the external debt not only of our state, but also of other countries of the world. Which of them has the smallest foreign debt, and who has the largest? Our experts will help you deal with these issues.
External debt
Before ranking the countries of the world in terms of the size and amount of external debt, this concept itself should be considered. It is established primarily at the legislative level. So, in our country it works Budget code, according to which the external debt of any country to other states is understood as a financial credit debt in foreign currency.
In the dictionary of economic terms, this concept is considered in the form of total monetary obligations, which the borrowing country needs to return to certain period the creditor state. The amount of such credit debt will include both the loan itself and interest on its use, requiring payments. For a country, this amount of debt includes obligations:
- international banks;
- governments of other countries of the world;
- private banks owned by foreigners.
There are two types of external debt:
- Current (the one that needs to be returned to foreign creditors in current year i.e. in 2019).
- General state (accumulated over several years together with unpaid interest, it should be reimbursed in subsequent years).
To estimate the amount of external debt of a single state, specialists working in the field of economics and finance use the ratio between credit debt to foreign creditors and the gross domestic product of the debtor country itself. In this case, GDP (gross domestic product) stands macroeconomic indicator, representing the total amount of everything that the country earned in a year from the goods and services produced.
External debt indicators
Experts argue that external debt affects not only economic sphere borrowing country, but also can lead to long-term political dependency. This is determined by the critical level of overall debt indicators:
- The solvency of the country (the ability to timely fulfill all the obligations assumed at the expense of its own resources), which includes:
- dependence on export goods;
- relation to the state's GDP (that is, to the main base of household resources);
- repayment of debt obligations at the expense of state budget revenues.
- Liquidity (the ability of existing assets, such as securities, to be quickly sold at market prices), taking into account:
- term of the debt (short-term or for a long period of time);
- the sufficiency of international reserves;
- monitoring the risks of non-payment of debt obligations.
- Indicators for the public sector, namely:
- the impact of tax revenues on public debt;
- course changes foreign exchange to home.
Thanks to these indicators, which affect almost all areas of the economy, it is possible to calculate how quickly the debtor state will return loans borrowed from other countries of the world. cash. So, for example, a safe level of debt is evidenced by the ratio of debt to export earnings not exceeding 200% (if this indicator is higher than 275%, then external debt can be partially written off as unpaid).
In relation to local GDP, the critical level of debt will be considered from 60% (according to IMF calculations) and from 80-100% (according to World Bank). Exceeding this limit indicates that the repayment of financial debt from other countries of the world is due to the transfer of resources. Instead of producing goods and services for the internal needs of the state, they are produced for export trade.
Also, to predict the return of debt obligations with interest, one should take into account:
- the ratio of these obligations (they may be due to a number of preferential conditions);
- the degree of openness of the external capital market;
- real exchange rate regime;
- the likelihood of an economic crisis.
If a country has limited access to its own and international reserves, then there can be no question of any solvency. Therefore, many developing countries have difficulties with the return cash loans. They use all the profits received from domestic production to pay off their external debt, and the current costs of their own activities are taken from new credit receipts.
Positive aspects of the external debt of the state from the countries of the world
It would seem that credit financial debt to other countries does not bring anything good for the state - this is an inefficient use of money received on credit, service credit obligations, economic dependence from the creditor country, leading to a change in political relations between states. But experts in economics and finance also find positive aspects in external debt:
- any foreign loan improves economic situation borrowing country;
- inflow foreign capital helps in the development of certain sectors of the economy (for example, transport, energy, etc.);
- the general budget of the state is restored.
But these positive aspects begin to work only in the case of effective allocation of borrowed funds.
Ranking of countries in the world by external debt
Experts working in the World Banking System annually calculate all possible prospects for repayment of external debt for countries around the world. Also in the scope of their activities is the compilation of rating tables for external debt with a miscalculation of the percentage ratio of this type of debt to nominal GDP. For 2019, the top 10 countries in the world with the lowest external debt were compiled:
| The name of the country | External debt (million dollars) | External debt to GDP (%) |
| USA | 16 893 000 | 101 |
| Great Britain | 9 836 000 | 396 |
| Germany | 5 624 000 | 159 |
| France | 5 633 000 | 188 |
| Netherlands | 3 733 000 | 309 |
| Japan | 2 719 000 | 46 |
| Spain | 2 570 000 | 165 |
| Italy | 2 684 000 | 101 |
| Ireland | 2 357 000 | 1060 |
| Luxembourg | 2 146 000 | 3411 |
As a result of the analysis of these tables, it can be concluded that there are a surprisingly small number of countries that do not have external debt - only three (Brunei, Macao and the Republic of Palau), unlike other states that owe almost the whole world.
There are countries that are both borrowers and lenders to each other. So why don't they offset their financial debts? But this depends not only on the political relationship between them, but also on the conditions credit loan- maturities, interest payments, etc. After all, the offset of such debts can not only nullify debts, but also seriously affect working capital public finance companies. This situation, in turn, can lead to a crisis in the economy of both countries.
At the same time, in the near future, government debt obligations like a snowball will be able to sweep away everything in its path. These are the conclusions of the organizers of the study of the World Organization of Creditors (WOC).
The public debt of the countries of the world continues to increase, and, according to the latest estimates, it is becoming increasingly difficult for countries not only to reduce its volume, but at least to stabilize it, the study says. According to the preliminary results of 2012, the total debt of all states of the world exceeded $55 trillion. Most of this volume (75%) is made up by the obligations of only seven developed economies of the world - the G7 countries. Over the previous year, they not only did not alleviate the situation, but also increased their debts by 5%. In general, the volume of debt of developed countries increased by 12% and amounts to 110% of their total GDP.
AT developing countries the situation is not so critical: in 2012, the total amount of public debt increased by 1% and in relation to GDP is 34%. The largest increase is observed in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, where government debt rose by 5%. In other regions, the increase is 1-2% of the previous year.
Public debt of key regions of the world
| Regions | Public debt, $ billion, 2012 | Public debt, $ billion, 2011 | Change | Public debt/GDP, 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The developed countries | 46539 | 41715 | 12% | 110% |
| G7 | 42261 | 40398 | 5% | 129% |
| European Union | 14316 | 14458 | -1% | 89% |
| Developing countries | 9329 | 9234 | 1% | 34% |
| Asia | 4114 | 4017 | 2% | 32% |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | 2812 | 2817 | 0% | 49% |
| Middle East and North Africa | 798 | 757 | 5% | 27% |
| CIS | 362 | 357 | 1% | 14% |
Sources:woc,IMF, CIA.
Leaders have not changed
If we consider all the countries of the world as a whole, then there were no significant changes in the leaders. The first two lines of the rating are occupied by the USA and Japan, which each have $16 trillion. and $14 trillion. respectively. Thus, more than half of the world's sovereign debt falls on these two countries. Then come the countries whose public debt ranges from $1 trillion. up to $3 trillion. After Japan, which government obligations almost 3 times higher than its own GDP, the most difficult situation is in Italy. At the end of 2012, sovereign debt in relation to GDP amounted to 126%. However, experts note that the situation in this country is more stable than in its southern European neighbors, since government bonds have long maturities and are mainly owned by domestic investors.
At the same time, in percentage terms, the most significant increase in public debt among the countries considered was recorded in Kazakhstan. The index in this country rose by more than a third (+32%), moving Kazakhstan to 58th place in the overall ranking in terms of public debt. The largest increase in financial liabilities among developed countries was noted in Spain and Australia. At the end of 2012, debt in these countries increased by 23% and 19%, respectively.
China continues to reduce its public debt, but at a very slow pace. At the end of 2012, the volume of debt decreased by 6%. At the same time, a year earlier, the government repaid another 5% of its obligations. The state debt also decreased by 8% in Greece, which can be explained by the write-offs that creditors went to in 2012. Decreased financial obligations and in Hungary, a 15% decline placed the country in 42nd place in the overall ranking.
| Place in 2012 | Place in 2011 | Country | The volume of public debt, $ billion, 2012 | The volume of public debt, $ billion, 2011 | Change | Public debt/GDP, 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | USA | 16730,5 | 15536,3 | 8% | 107% |
| 2 | 2 | Japan | 14148,9 | 13476,9 | 5% | 237% |
| 3 | 3 | Germany | 2888,7 | 2881,5 | 0,3% | 83% |
| 4 | 4 | Italy | 2611,2 | 2640,7 | -1% | 126% |
| 5 | 5 | France | 2440,0 | 2387,9 | 2% | 90% |
| 6 | 6 | Great Britain | 2175,1 | 1977,4 | 10% | 89% |
| 7 | 7 | China | 1770,9 | 1886,1 | -6% | 22% |
| 8 | 9 | Canada | 1579,3 | 1483,8 | 6% | 88% |
| 9 | 8 | Brazil | 1569,7 | 1619,0 | -3% | 64% |
| 10 | 11 | Spain | 1267,7 | 1032,3 | 23% | 91% |
| 11 | 10 | India | 1202,6 | 1123,0 | 7% | 68% |
| 12 | 12 | Netherlands | 547,0 | 547,6 | -0,1% | 68% |
| 13 | 13 | Mexico | 520,3 | 506,3 | 3% | 43% |
| 14 | 14 | Belgium | 492,0 | 502,1 | -2% | 99% |
| 15 | 15 | Greece | 462,9 | 501,3 | -8% | 171% |
| … | ||||||
| 26 | 25 | Russia | 222,9 | 221,3 | 1% | 11% |
Sources:woc,IMF, CIA.
One debt for each
In the issue of public debt per inhabitant, Japan is still the leader. For each inhabitant of the country there is more than $110 thousand. The consequences of the tsunami and the accident at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima will have a negative impact on the economy of the country of the Rising Sun for a long time to come. Japan is followed by Ireland ($53.9 thousand per inhabitant), which has almost been caught up by Singapore and the United States. In these countries, each inhabitant has $53,000 of public debt. At the same time, the pressure on the residents of Qatar has increased significantly: now each of them accounts for more than $37,000, which is 19% higher than a year earlier.
In Russia as a whole, the situation with public debt is stable. At the end of 2012, its volume grew by 1% and does not exceed 11% of the GDP level. As for the debt per capita, each resident has a little more than $1.5 thousand.
| Place | Country | Public debt per 1 inhabitant, $, 2012 | Public debt per 1 inhabitant, $, 2011 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan | 110875,1 | 105373,8 | 5,2% |
| 2 | Ireland | 53992,8 | 50585,1 | 6,7% |
| 3 | Singapore | 53435,9 | 52994,6 | 0,8% |
| 4 | USA | 53229,0 | 49804,4 | 6,9% |
| 5 | Norway | 49438,7 | 48246,3 | 2,5% |
| 6 | Canada | 45347,6 | 43086,6 | 5,2% |
| 7 | Belgium | 44549,8 | 45854,0 | -2,8% |
| 8 | Italy | 42879,6 | 43557,5 | -1,6% |
| 9 | Greece | 41313,1 | 44783,4 | -7,7% |
| 10 | France | 38474,8 | 37827,0 | 1,7% |
| 11 | Qatar | 37506,5 | 31793,9 | 18% |
| 12 | Switzerland | 36240,8 | 37446,2 | -3,2% |
| 13 | Austria | 36035,6 | 35992,4 | 0,1% |
| 14 | Germany | 35323,3 | 35234,9 | 0,3% |
| 15 | Great Britain | 34490,5 | 31565,3 | 9,3% |
| … | ||||
| 47 | Russia | 1570,8 | 1554,1 | 1,1% |
| 51 | China | 1308,1 | 1399,8 | -6,6% |
Sources:woc,IMF, CIA.
Stocks won't save
In the matter of international reserves, China can boast of the most impressive "airbag". Over the past year, the country has increased the amount of IR to $3.5 trillion, which is 3 times more than the public debt. Second place is held by Japan, whose figures reach $1.3 trillion. However, this is enough to cover only 10% of the public debt. Third place is firmly won by Saudi Arabia, which continues to increase its reserve funds. Russia, which now occupies fourth place, in the near future may be “pushed” by the United States, which is also increasing its reserve fund. However, it should be noted that in case of urgent need, most countries will not have enough “piggy banks” to cover all their debts.
| Place | Country | The volume of international reserves, $ billion | Reserve coverage of public debt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 3549 | 200% |
| 2 | Japan | 1351 | 10% |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 626,8 | 1749% |
| 4 | Russia | 561,1 | 252% |
| 5 | USA | 537,267 | 3% |
| 6 | Taiwan | 391 | 195% |
| 7 | Brazil | 371,1 | 24% |
| 8 | Switzerland | 330,585 | 114% |
| 9 | Korea, republic | 319,2 | 82% |
| 10 | Hong Kong | 299,6 | 348% |
| 11 | India | 287,2 | 24% |
| 12 | Singapore | 253,3 | 88% |
| 13 | Germany | 234,104 | 8% |
| 14 | Algeria | 190,5 | 1078% |
| 15 | Italy | 173,3 | 7% |
Sources:woc,IMF, CIA.
Pessimism becomes reality
With steadily increasing pressure, there are more and more forecasts of an imminent explosion of "debt bubbles". Countries that are already overwhelmed with debt cannot find a way to repay their obligations and are forced to borrow even more to pay the interest on current loans. For most developed economies, as well as for countries in which the ratio of public debt to GDP exceeds 60-70%, the point of no return seems to have already been passed. Therefore, sooner or later they will repeat the fate of Greece or Cyprus, experts say. However, in this case, there will be no one to borrow funds for the “rescue”.
However, based on the forecast of the dynamics of the growth of public debt relative to GDP, there is a slight decrease in this indicator in the second half of the current decade. However, the IMF's optimists are still betting on an increase in GDP, and not on a real reduction in public debt.
In general, experts are increasingly inclined towards a pessimistic scenario: in the near future, a crisis in public finances is quite real, which in its power and consequences will many times exceed financial crises previous years.
Forecast of the dynamics of public debt in relation to GDP in key regions of the world
Sources:WOC, IMF, CIA.
