The Republic of Dagestan is one of the most economically developed regions of the North Caucasian Federal District. In 2011, the gross regional product Republic amounted to 327 billion rubles, over the past 7 years, the volume of GRP has increased more than 3 times. In the composition of the total volume of the gross regional product of Russia of the Republic of Dagestan, the share in terms of GRP also had an upward trend from 0.02% in 2005 to 0.3% in 2011. Russian Federation in terms of GRP, Dagestan ranks 37th, among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District - 2nd place, second only to Stavropol Territory.
Dynamics of the volume of gross regional product by regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, billion rubles
The production of GRP for the period from 2005 to 2011 had a steady trend towards active growth: GRP (in comparable prices) in 2011 compared to 2009 increased by 26%, and compared to 2005 - 3.6 times. However, during the period 2007-2010. there was a downward trend in the real GRP of the Republic of Dagestan, the largest drop of which occurred in 2010 (the GRP physical volume index was 103.6%), however, starting from 2011, there has been an increase in the index, exceeding similar indicators on average for federal district and the Russian Federation as a whole.
GRP volume index, %
In terms of per capita, the volume of gross regional product produced in Dagestan increased by 3.3 times compared to 2005 and amounted to 111.9 thousand rubles. in 2011, which corresponds to the 3rd place among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. In the Russian Federation, Dagestan ranks 74th in terms of the production of GRP per capita. In terms of per capita GRP, the republic is comparable to the Ivanovo region, North Ossetia, Tyva and Kabardino-Balkaria.
Gross regional product per capita by regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, thousand rubles
AT branch structure formation of the gross value added of the Republic of Dagestan relative to similar indicators for the federal district and Russia as a whole, we can distinguish distinctive features, allowing to characterize the economy of the region as agro-industrial:
Share in GRP of the sector region Agriculture, fisheries and fish farming is 15.1% (NCFD - 14.6%, RF - 4.5%).
Share in GRP of products industrial production- 6.5% (NCFD - 14%, RF - 32.6%).
The share in the GRP of the construction industry is 19.4% (NCFD - 12.3, RF - 6.9%).
Share of wholesale, retail and household services in GRP is 27% (NCFD - 22, RF - 19.4%).
The share of transport and communications in the GRP is 9% (NCFD - 8.7%, RF - 10.5%).
Share of commercial financial services, real estate transactions, as well as the service and tourism sector is 6.9% (NCFD - 7.3%, RF - 13%).
The share of non-market services in the GRP is 16.1% (NCFD - 21.1, RF - 13.1%).
Sectoral structure of gross value added in 2010, %
Biggest Contribution“wholesale and retail trade, provision of personal services to the population” contributes to the formation of the gross regional product of the Republic of Dagestan, the share of their added value in the economy increased by 1.1% over the year and in 2011 amounted to 27.3% of the total GRP (in 2005 - 19.8%). Growth was achieved mainly due to a 2.3-fold increase in the turnover of the "wholesale trade" type of activity. The turnover of retail trade and the provision of services to the population increased during the study period by 12.9% and 10.2%, respectively; real value added also increased by 10.1%. The contribution of the type of activity "wholesale and retail trade, provision of personal services to the population" in the GRP of the region is constantly growing, and compared to 2005, its share increased from 19.8% to 27.3%, in actual current prices the growth was almost 5 times, from 17.9 billion rubles in 2005 to 89.3 billion rubles in 2011.
Structure of the gross regional product by types economic activity in 2011, %
The second most important for the economy of Dagestan are construction and the agricultural sector, providing 18.8% and 15.2%, respectively, in the formation of the gross regional product. Compared to 2010, the share of agriculture in the structure of GRP increased by 0.1%, while construction saw a slight drop of 0.6%. During the period 2005-2011. the influence of these sectors of the economy has also changed significantly, if in 2005 the construction sector formed 12.6% of GRP, then already in 2011 it was 18.8%; agriculture, on the contrary, reduced its influence from 23.6% in 2005 to 15.2% in 2011. At the same time, the real volume of value added created in the construction industry and agriculture in relation to 2010 increased by 0.3 % and by 2.4%, respectively. Compared to 2011 and 2005, the real value added decreased from 108.1% to 106.3% in agriculture and from 145.8% to 108.3% in construction.
Dynamics of physical volume indices of gross value added,%
| Branch of the economy | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Agriculture | 108,1 | 105,2 | 105,2 | 103,3 | 104,4 | 103,9 | 106,3 |
| Fishing and fish farming | 76,8 | 80,3 | 101,1 | 169,8 | 132,9 | 100,4 | 96,3 |
| Industry | 81,4 | 98,6 | 106,2 | 94,2 | 110,1 | 103 | 100,5 |
| Construction | 145,8 | 127,8 | 130,1 | 126,5 | 115,6 | 108 | 108,3 |
| Transport and communications | 109,3 | 119,1 | 105,9 | 116,2 | 97,8 | 94,2 | 109,9 |
| Trade | 132,6 | 124,2 | 133,2 | 114,6 | 116,5 | 101,6 | 111,7 |
| Services in the field of finance, real estate, service and tourism | 28,6 | 89,1 | 86,3 | 81,4 | 65,5 | 114,7 | 85,7 |
| Off-market services | 109 | 105 | 105,8 | 98,6 | 103,8 | 101,8 | 102,3 |
Agriculture, construction and trade together form 57.7% of the value added in the region, the share of other sectors and their contribution to the formation of the economy of the Republic of Dagestan in the context of economic activities is not so significant and ranges from 8.8% (“transport and communications” ) to 0.1% (“financial activities”). During the period under study, the share of these industries did not undergo significant deviations, which indicates a stable economic situation.
Structure of the gross regional product by type of economic activity (in % of the total)
| Index | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| including by types of economic activity: | |||||||
| Agriculture, hunting and forestry | 23,5 | 19,8 | 15,8 | 15,4 | 15,0 | 15,0 | 15,1 |
| Fishing, fish farming | 0,1 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,1 |
| Mining | 1,9 | 1,1 | 0,9 | 0,6 | 0,4 | 0,5 | 0,5 |
| Manufacturing industries | 5,8 | 3,9 | 4,7 | 3,2 | 3,7 | 4,3 | 4,2 |
| Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water | 2,1 | 1,8 | 3,8 | 3,4 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,9 |
| Construction | 12,6 | 15,8 | 17,0 | 19,7 | 20,1 | 19,4 | 18,8 |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair auto Vehicle, motorcycles, household and personal items | 19,8 | 21,4 | 25,3 | 23,6 | 26,7 | 27,0 | 27,3 |
| Hotels and restaurants | 1,6 | 1,8 | 2,9 | 3,9 | 3,3 | 3,8 | 4,6 |
| Transport and communications | 14,2 | 13,9 | 8,5 | 11,0 | 10,3 | 9,0 | 8,8 |
| Financial activities | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,2 | 0,2 | 0,1 |
| Operations with real estate, rental and provision of services | 2,6 | 2,9 | 3,8 | 2,9 | 2,0 | 2,9 | 2,6 |
| Public administration and ensuring military security; compulsory social security | 4,1 | 6,3 | 6,4 | 5,9 | 6,0 | 6,1 | 6,1 |
| Education | 5,7 | 5,6 | 5,3 | 4,9 | 5,0 | 4,9 | 4,8 |
| Health and Social Service Delivery | 3,6 | 3,8 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 4,0 | 3,9 | 3,9 |
| Provision of other communal, social and personal services | 2,4 | 1,9 | 1,7 | 1,6 | 1,4 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
In the structure of GRP use directions, its main share falls on final consumption expenditures - in 2012, 70.2% of the total volume, of which 75.4% falls on the final consumption of households. In general, for the period 2005-2012. observed stable growth gross domestic product both for final consumption and for gross capital formation. fifteen
Dynamics of the use of gross domestic product, billion rubles
ended another year. It must be admitted that it was not easy not only for the country as a whole, but also for our republic. In 2017, the imposition of sanctions against Russia continued, however, our country also responded with “mirror” measures. But unlike previous years, we have already adapted to both sanctions and economic crisis which, admittedly, has declined. Despite this, in 2017, as in previous years, the “austerity regime” was relevant. In these difficult conditions, we managed to show growth in many positions. So, let's sum up the preliminary results of the past year (the exact figures will be known a little later).
Big Picture
In general, the socio-economic situation in Dagestan by the end of the year showed a positive trend in the rates of the main economic indicators. The growth rate of industrial production amounted to 20.6%, agricultural and construction products - 4.7% each, retail trade turnover - 3%, volume paid services population - 2.7%, real disposable cash income – 3,3%.
As a result, the index of output of goods and services by basic types economic activity increased by 6.4% with an increase in January-November 2016 by 6.1%.
As part of the implementation of the subprogram "Socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for 2016-2025" state program of the Russian Federation "Development of the North Caucasus Federal District" for the period up to 2025 "in the current year for funding were selected investment projects for the construction of greenhouse complexes of AgroMir LLC and Yugagroholding LLC, as well as a plant for the production of gypsum and gypsum-containing building materials in the industrial area with. Kafir-Kumukh. It is assumed that after the projects reach their planned capacities, more than 400 jobs will be created, annual revenues will be provided tax payments to the budgets of all levels in the amount of 180 million rubles.
Priority projects for the development of Dagestan were implemented, including in order to increase the tax potential of the consolidated budget of the region. Tax and non-tax revenues for 11 months amounted to 29 billion rubles, set targets for the collection of tax and non-tax revenues in consolidated budget republics were executed by 101.3%.
In addition, information about 63.6 thousand people was transferred to AIS Nalog-3. land plots and 67.1 thousand objects capital construction, updated information and formalized ownership of 53.6 thousand land plots and 33.9 thousand capital construction projects. 4249 entities engaged in activities without registration were identified, 2923 entities were put on tax records. As of December 20, 53.8 thousand people engaged in activities without appropriate registration were identified, of which 44.9 thousand people were imprisoned employment contracts or put on record (100.3% of planned values).
Industry
The situation in the industry was characterized by an increase in production volumes as a whole by 20.6%, with an increase in the pace of mining by 0.5%, manufacturing by 25.1% and an observed decline in the volume of water supply, sanitation, organizing the collection and disposal of waste, activities for elimination of pollution by 0.7% and provision of electricity, gas and steam, air conditioning by 11.6%.
By type of activity "manufacturing" high level growth of the index of industrial production (125.1%) for 11 months compared to the corresponding period of 2016 is the result of outstripping growth of industrial production in such structure-forming types of economic activity as the production of coke and oil products - by 6.3 times (CJSC "Kaspiy 1" ); production of finished metal products, except for machinery and equipment - by 1.8 times (OJSC "Dagdiesel"); production of computers, electronic and optical products - 1.5 times (JSC Azimut); production of other vehicles and equipment - 1.4 times (JSC Concern KEMZ); production of beverages - 1.3 times. At the same time, there is a decrease in production in the production of electrical equipment - by 33.8% (OJSC "Kizlyar Electric Apparatus Plant"), the production of machinery and equipment not included in other groups - by 32.5% (FL NPC Conversion "Plant of Separators" ) and production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 30.9% (OJSC Branch of PJSC RusHydro - Dagestan branch).
In 2017, production facilities were put into operation at seven industrial enterprises Dagestan: floor tiles and ceramic granite at Marabi LLC; modern lift-assembly production of various carrying capacity at JSC "Kizlyar Electric Apparatus Plant"; section of vacuum-film forming at JSC “Plant im. Gadzhiev"; modernization of the machine-assembly shop at Dagdizel Plant JSC; the second machining workshop, thermal, welding and assembly sections at the Aircraft Mechanical Plant of JSC Concern KEMZ in Kaspiysk; resumption of the production of fiberglass and fiberglass fabrics of OJSC Makhachkala Fiberglass Plant; galvanic production and launch of a molar section at OJSC Yuzhno-Sukhokumsk Electromechanical Plant.
According to preliminary data, the volume of production under the defense order for 2017 increased by 1.5 times and is estimated at 9 billion rubles. The volume of production of import-substituting industrial products, mainly for defense purposes, in 2017 was estimated at 3.7 billion rubles and increased by 1.4 times compared to 2016.
In general, the growth rate of industrial production in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (101.6%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7%). Among the regions of the North Caucasian District of Dagestan this indicator per capita (16 thousand rubles) in fifth place.
Agriculture
The volume of agricultural production by all categories of commodity producers amounted to 110.4 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% (in January-November 2016 - by 3.8%). Growth in agricultural production is provided, first of all, by increasing the gross harvest of crop production.
Thus, in Dagestan, the harvesting of the main agricultural crops has been completed. The gross harvest of vegetables amounted to about 1.5 million tons (105.2% compared to the same period in 2016), potatoes - 395 thousand tons (99.7%), fruits - 208.5 thousand tons (159.8%), rice - 85 thousand tons (111.2%), grapes - 168.8 thousand tons (113.6%). The planting of orchards amounted to almost 1.5 thousand hectares, including intensive type gardens - 673.5 hectares, while the planned indicator for the current year is 1100 hectares and 200 hectares, respectively. New orchards were planted on an area of 1233.4 ha, which was 82.2% of the program target for 2017 (1500 ha).
Growth in production for 11 months is also observed in terms of the main indicators of livestock products. The production of livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) for the specified period in farms of all categories amounted to 208.4 thousand tons (105.6% compared to the corresponding period in 2016), milk - 767.7 thousand tons (102.6% ), eggs - 215.2 million pieces (103%).
As part of the implementation of the Action Plan for import substitution in Dagestan, work is underway to commission, reconstruct and modernize a number of industries. So, in s. Novokuli, Novolaksky district (Novostroy), the first stage of the greenhouse complex with a total area of 1.3 hectares was put into operation. In addition, Yugagroholding LLC launched the first stage of a greenhouse complex on an area of 5.5 hectares, which will further increase the production of vegetables in greenhouses during the off-season period by 2.5 thousand tons. To provide the greenhouse complex with backup water supply, LLC Yugagroholding built a backup reservoir with a capacity of 14 thousand cubic meters. The launch of these facilities will increase the production of protected ground vegetables by the end of 2017 to 18 thousand tons, against 14 thousand tons in 2016.
In order to develop the infrastructure and logistics of the food market in Dagestan, Yugagroholding LLC completed the construction of a fruit storage with a total capacity of 4,000 tons and a vegetable storage with a capacity of 6,000 tons in July 2017.
Based on the production of feed pellets from alfalfa green mass, Kizlyar Uritsky Meat Processing Plant LLC has created a raw material base for increasing the production of sausages, producing new types of raw smoked sausages, canned meat, and meat and bone meal. The enterprise is working to expand export opportunities, delivering products (lamb meat) to Iran.
In addition, work is underway in the republic on the technical modernization of agricultural production. Thus, agricultural producers of the republic purchased 51 units of equipment, including 13 tractors and one grain harvester for a total of 50 million rubles.
The growth rate of agriculture in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (104.7% against 102.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% against 101.2%). Among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, the republic is in fourth place in terms of this indicator per capita (33 thousand rubles), the best indicator is in the Stavropol Territory (65.5 thousand rubles).
Investments in fixed assets
The volume of investments in fixed capital in Dagestan from all sources of financing for three quarters amounted to 110.5 billion rubles, or 104.6% compared to the same period in 2016. The volume of work performed by the type of activity "construction" for 11 months amounted to 99.7 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2016.
Due to all sources of financing in Dagestan in January-November, according to preliminary data, more than 1 million 374 thousand square meters were put into operation. meters total area housing, which is higher than the same period last year by 0.1%. Commissioning of housing by individual developers for the past period current year amounted to 928.8 thousand square meters. meters of the total area of housing, or 67.6% of the total housing commissioned.
The growth rate in terms of the volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction" in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (104.7% against 97.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% against 102.6 %). Among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, the republic is in first place in terms of this indicator per capita (24 thousand rubles).
The actual financing of the Republican Investment Program as of December 1 amounted to more than 3 billion 165 million rubles, including more than 2 billion 92 million rubles at the expense of federal budget and 1 billion 72 million rubles - republican. The volume of work performed on the objects of the Program for the specified period amounted to about 2 billion 859 million rubles, or 90.3% of the volume of actually financed funds.
In 2017, within the framework of the Program (including funding from previous years), 9 facilities were put into operation general education for 4586 student places (in Buynaksky, Kaytagsky, Tarumovsky, Tlyaratinsky, Khasavyurtovsky, Khiva districts and in the cities of Makhachkala, Kaspiysk, Khasavyurt), 3 kindergartens for 290 places (in Buynaksky and resettlement Novolaksky districts), FEC for 2497.5 sq. m (in Kizlyar), 1 healthcare facility for 150 beds (Republican Perinatal Center in Makhachkala) preparation of the reservoir bed of the Gotsatlinskaya HPP.
In addition, the construction of 6 educational facilities for 2748 student places has been completed: in the city of Makhachkala (2 schools), in Khasavyurt (2 schools), Kumtorkalinsky, Magaramkent districts; 2 hospitals with a total capacity of 245 beds and 100 visits per shift (in the Botlikh and Karabudakhkent districts), a pumping station (for water supply in the city of Khasavyurt and villages in the Khasavyurt district), sewage treatment facilities for 17 thousand cubic meters per day (in the city of Izberbash), engineering infrastructure facilities of the Uytash investment site. These facilities will be put into operation at the beginning of 2018, taking into account the registration of property rights and licensing of current activities.
In 2018, over 3 billion 263 million rubles are provided for the implementation of the Program, including 1 billion 611 million rubles from the federal budget and 1 billion 652 million rubles from republican budget.
Social sphere
The social sphere in the republic is characterized by an increase in real disposable money income of the population by 3.3%. The average monthly salary of employees in January-October amounted to a little more than 21 thousand 273 rubles, which is 5.1% more than the same period in 2016. Real wages for the past period of the current year is 101.6%, which is much better than the same period last year (96.6%). At the same time, the monthly average wages still remains below the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (by 1.8 times) and the North Caucasian Federal District (by 1.1 times).
The situation on the labor market of the republic remained stable. AT public institutions at the end of November, 24.8 thousand people were registered as unemployed (92.2% compared to January-November 2016).
Budget: execution and benchmarks
The consolidated budget of Dagestan in 2017, as of December 29, was executed by 100% in terms of tax and non-tax revenues, almost 32 billion rubles were secured.
As explained in the Ministry of Economic Development of the region, the achievement of positive results in the collection of tax and non-tax revenues was facilitated by the activities of the priority project for the development of the Republic of Dagestan "Whitening" the economy. Work has been done to expand tax base on property taxes, increase in revenues from the main types of taxes.
As a result of the work carried out in 2017, the data was updated and transferred to the database tax authorities information on 63.6 thousand land plots and 67.1 thousand capital construction projects. In addition, 14 thousand 704 business objects were surveyed, 4362 persons engaged in entrepreneurial activity without registration, of which 2923 entities are tax registered.
As a result of the work carried out, significant growth revenues compared to the previous year from income tax (by 10.2% or 383 million rubles), special tax regimes(by 6.6% or 80.5 million rubles), property taxes (by 8.4% or 388.4 million rubles).
In 2017, due to the allocation to the republic of additional financial assistance from reserve fund The President of the Russian Federation in the amount of 3.2 billion rubles managed to fully fulfill the social obligations provided for in the 2017 budget, including the payment of wages to employees public sector, allowances and others.
The 2018 budget is also socially oriented. At the same time, funds are provided to support the real sector of the economy. First of all, the budget takes into account the unconditional implementation of the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, including in terms of ensuring the indicative wages of public sector employees subject to the decrees. Sufficiently taken into account the cost of drug provision, the cost of utilities and social payments, nutrition in preschool educational institutions and schools, health care institutions, etc. In addition, the budget provides for meeting the need for wages, accruals for wages, taking into account: minimum size wages up to 9,489 rubles; increase by 4 percent of the wage fund for other categories of workers not subject to the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of state civil and municipal employees; indexation of the scholarship fund for students educational institutions vocational education from September 1, 2018 by 4 percent. Payment costs utilities provided with an indexation of 4 percent.
As for the real sector of the economy, the budget provides funds in the amount of 100 million rubles for the leasing of agricultural machinery, 50 million rubles for the development of the canning industry, 100 million rubles for payment to grape producers for its delivery to alcohol-producing enterprises for processing at the rate of 1 ruble per 1 kg. In addition, for the first time, funds were allocated for the creation of the Industrial Development Fund in the amount of 100 million rubles.
Development of municipalities
In 2017, an assessment was made of the implementation of the Agreements concluded between the Government of the Republic of Dagestan and municipal districts and urban districts on the achievement of indicators (indicators) of accelerated socio-economic development for 2016, which made it possible to determine the contribution of each municipality to the socio-economic development of the republic. The ranking of municipal districts and urban districts was carried out based on the results of achieving the planned values of indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development in 2016.
In order to continue this work, as well as to ensure the achievement of the values \u200b\u200bof indicators (indicators) of the socio-economic development of the republic, established by the Decree of the Head of the region "On the accelerated socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan", Agreements were signed between the Government of Dagestan and the heads of municipal districts and urban districts on achieving indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development of municipal districts and urban districts for 2017-2019. During 2017, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements, with the preparation of relevant proposals.
In 2018, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements will continue, as well as an assessment of the implementation of the Agreements based on the results of 2017.
In 2017, a competitive selection of projects of local initiatives of municipalities was held in Dagestan, as a result of which subsidies were allocated - 29.3 million rubles - for the implementation of 15 projects. The projects include measures for water supply, construction highways, repair of social facilities, landscaping.
In 2018, work will continue to expand the number of municipalities participating in the competitive selection of projects of local initiatives.
In 2017 also held comprehensive assessment the effectiveness of the activities of the bodies local government, urban districts and municipal districts of the Republic of Dagestan that have achieved the best values of performance indicators are identified. A Consolidated report on the results of monitoring the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts based on the results of 2016 has been prepared. Based on the results of the work carried out, by the Decree of the Head of Dagestan, prizes were awarded and grants were allocated from the republican budget 15 municipalities: 3 urban districts and 12 municipal districts.
Placement in the state automated information system"Management" of the values of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts for reporting period, as well as planned values for a three-year period.
In 2018, work on assessing the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts of Dagestan continued.
Conclusion
To ensure the growth of the main economic and social indicators last year in Dagestan, work was carried out to implement a number of measures aimed at economic growth and improving the welfare of the population. Anti-crisis measures, action plans to promote import substitution in the industry and agro-industrial complex of the republic were implemented. Achievement of target values of indicators of social and economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation established by the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation was ensured.
In addition, in order to maximize the potential of Dagestan, action plans were implemented to implement a number of decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation.
In addition, as part of the decisions taken in 2016 at the federal level, work was carried out in the republic on the transition to project management, taking into account the new requirements for the implementation of strategic tasks, priority projects and programs. All executive authorities are focused on participation in the implementation federal projects within the framework of 11 directions of strategic development of the Russian Federation. The Coordinating Group of the Council under the Head of Dagestan for Sustainable Development and Priority Projects approved the Passports of Priority Development Projects of the Republic of Dagestan. Of the 11 main directions of the strategic development of the Russian Federation, Dagestan takes part in six: safe and high-quality roads; small business and support for individual entrepreneurial initiatives; education; housing and communal services and urban environment; single-industry towns and the reform of control and supervisory activities.
The GRP growth rate in 2015 will be 105.7%, which is 5.1 percentage points lower than the estimate for 2014 (110.8%), while 4.5 percentage points more than the average for the Russian Federation (101. 2%) and 3.4 percentage points more than in the Stavropol Territory (102.3%).
GRP growth rate of the Republic of Dagestan, Stavropol Territory
and GDP of the Russian Federation for 2010-2013,
estimate for 2014 and forecast for 2015-2017
The data presented in the diagram indicate a consistently high growth rate of GRP compared to the Stavropol Territory and the Russian Federation as a whole (GDP).
The average increase in GRP rates in 2015-2017 will be 7.3% in the republic, 2.7% in the Stavropol Territory, and 2.2% in the Russian Federation (GDP).
The share of taxes (to all levels of budgets for 2013) in the volume of GRP is 7.4%, which is 2.3 times lower than the average for the Russian Federation (17%) and 1.6 times less than the average for the North Caucasus Federal District (12.1%), including 2.4 times lower than in the Stavropol Territory (at the same time, the difference between the volume of GRP in the Republic of Dagestan and the Stavropol Territory is 1.2 times).
GRP volumes and tax revenues
in the context of subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District for 2013
(to all levels of budgets)
billion rubles
The share of taxes in the structure of the GRP of the Republic of Dagestan is the lowest among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus Federal District. According to this indicator, the Republic of Dagestan ranks last among the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District. At the same time, according to many macroeconomic indicators that form the GRP, the Republic of Dagestan occupies a leading position (1-2 places), including:
The volume of agricultural production - 2nd place after the Stavropol Territory;
The volume of investments in fixed capital - 1st place;
The volume of completed construction work - 1 place;
Retail trade turnover - 2nd place after the Stavropol Territory;
The volume of paid services to the population - 2nd place after the Stavropol Territory.
2014 estimate GRP per capita in the Republic of Dagestan will be 171.5 thousand rubles, which is 7.9 thousand rubles or 4.6% less than in the Stavropol Territory (179.4 thousand rubles), then according to the forecast for 2015, the gap will be 3.9 thousand rubles or 2.1% (RD - 190.3 thousand rubles, SC - 194.2 thousand rubles).
The increase in GRP per capita is projected: in 2015 by 11%; in 2016 - by 12.7%; in 2017 - by 13.7%.
In the structure of GRP (according to the forecast for 2015), the largest share (81%) falls on:
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, household and personal items - 24.6%;
Construction - 20.6%;
Agriculture, hunting and forestry - 13.3%;
Industrial production - 8.3%;
Hotels and restaurants - 7.8%;
Transport and communications - 6.2%.
Structure of the Gross Regional Product
according to the SER RD Forecast for 2015
The predicted high rates of development of certain sectors of the economy in 2015-2017 should lead to a change in the structure of GRP.
4.4. According to the SER RD Forecast for 2015-2017 industrial production index will be: in 2015 - 109.1%, in 2016 - 110.3% and in 2017 - 111.0% compared to the previous year. The growth rate in 2017 in relation to the level of 2013 will increase by 1.5 times against 107.3% on average in the Russian Federation.
In 2015, the volume of shipped products will amount to 70,451.2 million rubles, which is 9,763.7 million rubles more than the estimate for 2014.
The structure of industrial production is:
- "extraction of minerals" - 7.2% (5,076.3 million rubles) against 6.8% according to the estimate for 2014;
- "processing industries" - 67.8% (47,800.6 million rubles) against 66.7% according to the estimate for 2014;
- "production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" - 24.9% (17,574.3 million rubles) against 26.5% according to the estimate for 2014.
The volume of industrial output per capita for 2015 is 23.6 thousand rubles and will increase compared to 2013 (20.4 thousand rubles) by 3.2 thousand rubles or 22.8%, while 4 times lower the level of the Stavropol Territory (92.0 thousand rubles).
Structure of industrial production
(2014-2015)
The bulk of industrial output (more than 60%) is formed by manufacturing industries. According to the forecast for 2015, the volume of manufacturing production will amount to 47,800.6 million rubles, which is 7,306.2 million rubles or 18% more than the estimate for 2014 (40,494.4 million rubles).
Share of products by manufacturing industries total industrial output in 2015 will increase by 1.1 percentage points (from 66.7% to 67.8%), while the share of production and distribution of electricity, gas and water– will decrease by 1.6 percentage points (from 26.5% to 24.9%).
It should be noted that the further development of industry should be facilitated by the implementation of the Priority Development Projects of the Republic of Dagestan, including “New Industrialization”, “Growth Points”, Investments and Effective Territorial Development”, Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 596 “On the long-term state economic policy”, as well as the state program of the Republic of Dagestan “Industry Development of the Republic of Dagestan for 2014-2018”.
4.5. In 2015, an increase in the rate of production growth is forecasted agricultural products by 0.2 percentage points (106.4%) compared to the assessment level for 2014 (106.2%). The growth rate for 2017 compared to 2013 is projected at 129.1% with 112.3% on average in the Russian Federation.
In the field of agricultural development in the republic, a number of programs and investment projects are implemented annually, for the support of which significant financial resources, including loans.
In addition, in 2015 the implementation of Priority projects for the development of the Republic of Dagestan will continue, including those aimed at the development of the agro-industrial complex: "Creation of "growth points" of the Republic of Dagestan" and "Effective agro-industrial complex".
In the total volume of agricultural production, the main share is made up of households - 71%, peasant (farm) enterprises - 14.7%, agricultural enterprises - 14.3%.
Structure of agricultural products
Republic of Dagestan and Stavropol Territory
In the total volume of agricultural production, the smallest share is the products of agricultural enterprises - 14.3%, against 60% in the Stavropol Territory (or 4.2 times less).
The volume of agricultural production per capita for 2015 is planned to be 32.0 thousand rubles, or 1.6 times lower than in the Stavropol Territory (53.0 thousand rubles).
According to this indicator, in order to reach the level of the Stavropol Territory by 2017, it is necessary to annually increase the growth rate of agricultural production by at least 1.3 times, and bring the level to the average Russian value by 3 times.
In the forecast period, work will continue on the implementation of the priority development project of the Efficient Agro-Industrial Complex, aimed at the development of poultry farming, viticulture (introduction of a cluster approach), livestock farming, the fishery complex, the placement of intensive industrial gardens, the creation of agro-industrial parks, geothermal agro-parks, maintenance of key investment projects in the field of agro-industrial complex.
4.6. Volume investment in fixed assets at the expense of all sources of financing for 2015 is projected at 248,000.0 million rubles, which is 30,000.0 million rubles more than the estimate for 2014, while the growth rate (107.6%) by 5.1 percent points below the 2014 estimate (112.7%).
The growth rate of investments in 2017 in relation to the level of 2013 will be 144.9% against 104.1% on average in the Russian Federation.
The volume of investments per capita for 2015 is projected at the level of 82.9 thousand rubles, which is 13.1% or 9.6 thousand rubles more than the estimate for 2014 (73.3 thousand rubles).
In the structure of investment distribution, the largest share is occupied by enterprises of the following types of economic activity: "transport and communications" - 19.5%, "construction" - 17.0%, "production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" - 12.8%, "processing industries" - 10.3%, "operations with real estate, rent and provision of services" - 8.6%, "agriculture" - 8.5%, "health care" - 8.1%, "education" - 7.1%.
Of the total volume of investments, the share of own funds of organizations is 13.6%, attracted funds - 86.4%, of which budget funds – 57,6%.
In terms of investment volume for 2015, the Republic of Dagestan is ahead of the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, in particular the Stavropol Territory, in terms of total investment and investment per capita - 1.5 times (investment volume: RD - 248.0 billion rubles, SC - 145.0 billion rubles, per capita: RD - 82.9 thousand rubles, SC - 51.8 thousand rubles).
High growth rates of investment in fixed capital will be ensured by additional capital investments in energy, production of building materials, agro-industrial complex, extractive sector, manufacturing, transport, tourism and recreation complex, housing construction, education and health care.
In order to attract investments in the republic, the Priority Project for the Development of the RD "Investments in Dagestan" is being implemented, which provides for the implementation of measures aimed at increasing the representation of the republic in federal programs, in investment programs state-owned companies and state corporations, which will allow for the inflow of additional investment funds into the economy.
4.7. Taking into account the growth of investments in fixed assets in the forecast period, the growth volume of work performed by type of activity "Construction" will be: in 2015 - by 15,000.0 million rubles or 13.8%, in 2016 - by 7,000.0 million rubles or 5.7%, in 2017 - by 11,000.0 million rubles or 8.4%.
An increase in the commissioning of residential buildings is predicted from all sources of financing: in 2015 - by 2.5% or 40 thousand sq. m. m (1,650 thousand sq. m), in 2016 - by 5.5% or 90 thousand sq. m. m (1,740 thousand sq. m), in 2017 - a decrease of 2.3% or 40 thousand sq. m. m (1,700 thousand sq. m).
The share of housing built by individual developers will increase to 90% against 89% in 2014 (estimate).
According to the Ministry of Construction, Architecture, Housing and Communal Services of the Republic of Dagestan, in January-September of this year, the rate of commissioning of new housing increased by almost 8% compared to the same period last year. More than 80% of the total number of housing under construction is being built by individual developers. For 9 months of 2014, about 650.0 thousand square meters were commissioned in the region. m of individual housing and almost 120.0 thousand square meters. m of housing in multi-storey residential buildings.
The total area of residential premises per 1 inhabitant of the republic in 2017 will be 19.0 sq. m (for 2013 - 17.1 sq. m), while the average for the Russian Federation (according to the report for 2012) is 23.4 sq. m. m.
4.8. turnover retail for 2015, according to the Forecast of the SER RD for 2015-2017, will amount to 579,598.1 million rubles, which is 67,938.2 million rubles or 13.3% more than the estimate for 2014 (511,659.9 million rubles ).
The growth rate of retail trade turnover for 2013-2016 is planned to be higher than the average for the Russian Federation and the Stavropol Territory. Thus, the growth rate of retail trade turnover in the forecast period will be: in 2015 - 8.4%; in 2016 - 10.2%; in 2017 - 12.1%.
In 2015-2017, the average annual growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 110.2% (in the forecast for the whole of the Russian Federation - 103.9%).
The growth rate of retail trade turnover in 2017 compared to 2013 will be 44.8% against 9.1% on average in the Russian Federation.
Discussing the execution of last year's budget on September 13, officials repeatedly emphasized: yes, the treasury covers only social spending and actually ignores real sector, but our industrial growth rates are still the highest in the country. In all sorts of interviews, the government flaunts the indicators of socio-economic development (SED) as its main achievements and even dedicated a documentary to them. But what is actually driving this growth?
The pace of industrial production is a special source of pride for the authorities. It's no joke, in 2013 statistics showed an increase of 54% compared to previous period, and at the end of last year - by 36%. In 2013, the galloping SER lifted the republican government from 53rd to 31st place in the rating of the effectiveness of state authorities of the subjects. Since 2012, the volume of industrial production in the Republic of Dagestan has increased by 2.2 times. All laurels are attributed to the "New Industrialization" - a priority project of the head of the republic. Success comes from machine-building complex, reports the Ministry of Industry of the Republic of Dagestan. Last year, industrial growth was affected by a 2.5-fold jump in the production of machinery and equipment (OJSC Dagdizel), the production of vehicles and equipment - 1.8 times (OJSC Concern ''KEMZ''), production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 44.9% (Dagestan branch of JSC "RusHydro") and food production, including drinks and tobacco - by 5.7% (JSC "Kizlyaragrokompleks", JSC "Derbent Cognac Plant", JSC "Rychal-Su ").
In January-June 2017, the industry grew by another 40.3%, in seven months - by 44.7%, and in eight months - by 35.2% compared to the same period in 2016. The highest indicators are at OJSC Concern ‘‘KEMZ’’, OJSC ‘Plant ‘‘Dagdizel’’, OJSC «Zavod Gadzhiev», Production Association «Azimut», OJSC DNII «Volna».
For the first quarter of 2017, Dagestan ranked fourth in the ranking of regions in terms of the industrial growth index.
Let's compare it with tax revenues, the volume of sold/shipped products and GRP.
Furniture in assortment
Once every three years, the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Dagestan draws up a socio-economic development forecast in two versions - optimistic and basic - and adjusts it annually. According to domestic legislation, SER indicators are taken into account when drafting the republican budget and affect planned tax revenues (although, according to the source, there is no exact relationship between forecast and budget indicators).
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation in its methodology for developing a forecast of the NER recommends using two indicators to characterize the industrial (and in general production) result - output (includes sold goods and services, unsold finished products and unfinished production) and the volume of shipped (sold) products of own production (equating them in this regard with the index of industrial production). The latest assessment does not fully correspond to production results, but in terms of dynamic characteristics, in general, it is quite close to them, the federal Ministry of Economy believes.
Therefore, it seems to us that this indicator characterizes the current situation.
Table. Dynamics of economic indicators of the development of the Republic of Dagestan
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Manufacturing industries in the structure of shipped goods, in percent: |
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food production, including drinks and tobacco |
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production of rubber and plastic products |
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production of other non-metallic mineral products |
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production of electrical equipment, optical and electronic equipment |
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production of vehicles and equipment |
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other productions |
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GRP per capita, thousand rubles |
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The volume of shipped goods of own production, performed works and services, on their own, million rubles. |
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Industrial production index as a percentage of the previous year) |
The volume of shipped products for the last year is estimated at 52.4 billion rubles, a decrease by almost 12 billion rubles compared to 2015 (the structure is shown in Table 1, the OKVED articles are presented, the share of which is more than 5%). The number of enterprises involved in manufacturing has decreased by 355 since 2013 and amounted to 682.
A large share in the volume of shipped products is occupied by the production of food products, including drinks and tobacco - 45% (31% of GRP). Until 2016, other production was in second place, where OKVED includes the production and restoration of furniture. There was a sharp jump in furniture in 2015, when its share rose from 7.5 to 35%. The production of vehicles and equipment has been trailing behind the furniture sector for almost all this time. Only in 2016 they managed to raise the bar from 7 to 13.2%. (The main share here is furnaces, as well as industrial and laboratory chambers.) There was also an increase in shipments of non-metallic mineral products: from 9 to 14.3%.
Unprofitable industry
The growth of industry by 2.2 times should have had a corresponding effect on tax revenues. We analyzed tax revenues to the consolidated budget, that is, taking into account the share credited to the federal budget.
Since 2012, they have grown by 10 billion rubles and amounted to 31.7 billion (as of January 1, 2017). Of these, 3.8 billion is corporate income tax, 12.1 billion - personal income tax, 5.2 billion - VAT, 3.5 - excises on excisable goods. For five years, income tax revenues have not changed much. 3.7 billion went to the budget in 2012, 3.8 in 2016. In 2015, it also fell to 2.4.
What types of economic activities supply the treasury with income tax?
The profit from the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water for the budget is 1.2 billion. All types of manufacturing industries give more than 900 million rubles, where the food industry is about 370 million, the production of leather and footwear is 1.3 million, the processing of petroleum products is 1.7 million. Moreover, it turns out that publishing generally gives the treasury more income (44 million) than oil refining (3 million). In this regard, transportation through pipelines brings a much greater profit to the republic - 234 million tons.
From mechanical engineering, the treasury received 13.7 million, which is about 6 million more than in 2012. Compared to the year before last, there is a decrease: then about 58 million were paid. other vehicles" from 11 to 428 million rubles.
Construction and trade with a share in GRP of 15 and 28% give a profit in terms of income tax - 240 and 501 million. In total, 1.9 billion came to the budget from the construction industry, and 2.6 billion from trade.
Other industries, despite the impressive volumes of shipment, on the contrary, lost weight: the income tax on their part decreased from 14.4 to 6.3 million rubles.
VAT gained a lot of weight: from 1.8 to 5.1 billion. The food industry gave 1.6 billion, mechanical engineering - 268.4 million (relative to 2012, it increased by 280 million, but lost 220 million since 2015), production electrical equipment - -42 million compared to 2012, the production of ships and other vehicles - +180 million.
The return on VAT from construction increased by 600 million and from trade by 381 million.
It is also not clear where the crazy industrial growth that we are told about is going if the share of industrial production is only 6% of GRP. It has remained virtually unchanged since 2010, no matter how galloping the statistics may be. According to data for 2015, mining accounted for 0.4% of GRP, manufacturing - 3.9%, gas and water production - 2%. These three pillars underpin the index of industrial growth. For comparison: 28% of GRP is trade, another 15% each for agriculture and construction.
At the same time, we must not forget that the volume of industrial production is highly dependent on the volume of state defense orders. The decrease in the growth index of manufacturing industries in 2012 was associated by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Dagestan with a decrease in the volume of the state defense order. In 2013, the state defense order placed at Dagestan enterprises increased one and a half times compared to last year, after which the government began to report on industrial successes. ]§[
