Record low inflation - 4.6%. At the same time, the government almost managed to reach an average salary of 1,000 rubles. What will be the earnings of Belarusians in 2018? By how much will prices rise? And what exchange rate should Belarusians prepare for? Alpari Senior Analyst Vadim Iosub summed up the financial results for January and gave a forecast for the main indicators for the current year.
Photo: Dmitry Brushko, TUT.BY
What will the dollar exchange rate be like?
In January, the dollar rose by 0.57% against the Belarusian ruble, the euro rose by 4.08%, Russian ruble added 2.84%. The currency basket increased by 2.4% over the month. At first glance, it may seem that this is quite a bit, especially compared to the “shock” periods, when the growth was up to 50% within a month, the expert says. But here it is necessary to take into account important point, notes Vadim Iosub:
« The National Bank has set a goal for inflation to not exceed 6% this year. It is normal if the currency devalues approximately in proportion to inflation, if it depreciates much faster, then this indicates some imbalance in the market. The fall Belarusian ruble half a percent a month - that would be normal and natural».
As for the forecast for the year, by December the expert expects the dollar to rise to 2 rubles 10 kopecks, the euro to 2.60, and Russian currency- 3.75 for 100 rubles. But this is subject to maintaining cross-rates at current levels. That is, if the euro against the dollar, for example, becomes cheaper, this will also affect their rates against the Belarusian ruble.
Inflation and average salaries: administrative resource decides a lot
According to Vadim Iosub, inflation by the end of the year will be slightly higher than the bar set by the National Bank - at the level of about 7%. The components for which prices are set administratively will have a decisive influence: public transport, utility tariffs, says the expert. Closely related to this is the level of average wages in the country.
« It is necessary to predict not what will happen to the country's economy, but whether the authorities will take any action to further increase wages, - says Vadim Iosub. - If the government completely abandons administrative measures, the economy has little chance of reaching the declared level of 1,000 rubles by the end of the year. Income growth will be proportional to GDP growth, which, according to my forecasts, will be about 2%, and not the 3.5% announced by the state. But even if we take into account the most optimal forecast, throw in 6-7% of inflation here, we will get an increase in income by about 10%.
The sharp increase in the average salary in December was due to quarterly and annual bonuses, as well as other accounting tricks, Vadim Iosub is convinced. According to his forecast, in January average salary will roll back to the level of about 830 rubles.
Keeping money in Belarusian rubles is still the most profitable
Vadim Iosub advises to diversify your savings. About half can be kept in Belarusian rubles. And the best option, in his opinion, is a deposit.
It makes no sense to keep cash under the pillow, given the rates in rubles, which have already risen to 13%. The currency part can be divided between the dollar and the euro, says Vadim Iosub.
But the expert does not recommend investing in the Russian ruble. On the one hand, there is good potential due to rising oil prices. But it is worth considering the unpredictable political and sanctions risks.
Cryptocurrencies: a bubble that is slowly starting to deflate
The question of cryptocurrencies brings a smile to the face of Vadim Iosub. He suggests immediately considering that this is a typical "bubble". In his opinion, such a conclusion can be drawn from the change in prices and their dynamics of the most popular cryptocurrency - bitcoin. And do not confuse the concepts of "bubble" and "pyramid", says the expert. "Pyramid" is always a crime, a deception of gullible people. A “bubble” is a phenomenon that is characterized by a sharp rise in prices, and then often by an equally sharp drop. This is how people behave in the market. The “bubble” may be in the prices of oil, even tulips. And this does not characterize the product itself. And the situation with bitcoin quite claims to be included in economics textbooks - as a typical example of a "bubble", says Vadim Iosub.
Yesterday we received the fifth tranche of a $200 million loan from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development. This money, like the rest, should be spent on reforms Belarusian economy. How are they in our country? Are there any changes and what to fear in the future? Today, the Eurasian Development Bank, the fund manager, summed up the interim results.
What should we do in return for a loan?
It is clear that loans to Belarus are issued for a reason. In return, responses are always needed. The global task is to achieve stability and sustainable growth of the Belarusian economy. In particular, the EDB demanded a tight monetary policy, the absence of directed lending, flexibility exchange rate, a restrained increase in wage costs, the abolition of cross-subsidization, 100% payment for "communal" and so on.
In addition, in the latest requirements, the bank called the solution of issues with excessive employment, the provision of retraining opportunities, an increase in unemployment benefits, and the reduction of the public sector.
What are the results so far?
Course stabilization
According to EDB estimates, the refinancing rate was falling quite quickly: in two recent years it decreased from 25% to 11%. This has led to an increase money supply on the market. True, against this background, directed lending was reduced and a tough fiscal policy. In addition, Belarus was also affected by favorable external factors: the improvement of the economic situation in Russia, the growth in demand for non-primary exports, the inflow of foreign exchange through significant external borrowing and the net sale of foreign currency by the population - all this strengthened payment balance and stabilized the exchange rate.
Reducing inflation
- As of June 1, 2017, inflation was 6.1% year-on-year compared to 12.4% on June 1, 2016, the bank says. - It should be noted that such success of the authorities in the fight against inflation was achieved against the backdrop of the liberalization of prices for consumer goods. The share of regulated goods and services in the consumer price index basket fell to 20% - against 33% since the start of the program. According to the EDB, the level of payback of housing and communal services for the population has also increased. From 51.6% to an estimated 62%.
- In September of this year, the average inflation fell to 6.4% against the background of average inflation in 2010-2015 at the level of 28.4%, while inflation for 12 months decreased to 4.9%,- concludes the bank.
Switching off the printing press
The annual growth of broad money as of June 1, 2016 was 16.9%, and as of June 1, 2017 - 4.5%, compared with an average growth rate of 43% per year during 2010-2015.
Budget surplus
Over the past two years, we have experienced an increase in capital expenditures, replenishment of the authorized funds of enterprises and an increase in the Fund's loan support social protection population. The increase in the surplus was due to the accelerated growth of budget revenues. Mainly due to the recovery of imports in the EAEU and an increase in excise rates, as well as a relatively restrained current spending policy.
The authorities of the Republic of Belarus continued to adhere to strict fiscal policy. According to the results of January - May 2017, a wide budget surplus of the bodies government controlled, which takes into account government off-balance sheet spending, increased to 2.7% of GDP compared to 2.0% of GDP in January-May 2016.
Growth in non-energy exports
The depreciation of the ruble by 7.5% in real terms in January-May 2017 (producer price index) in the context of a flexible exchange rate policy and some growth economic activity in Russia contributed to the increase in Belarusian non-energy exports - the main driver of the country's economic recovery. According to the results of January - May, GDP growth amounted to 0.9%.
Continued growth in exports, as well as the emerging recovery domestic demand accelerated economic growth to 1.7% in the first 9 months of 2017.
But what threatens?
- Despite a significant improvement in the macroeconomic situation, the rapid pace of monetary policy easing carries serious risks of accelerating inflation, which may appear as early as early 2018, explains EDB. - The rapid and significant reduction in the refinancing rate in January-October 2017 from 18% to 11% resulted in the acceleration of broad money growth in the second half of 2017. In addition, the reduction in inflation rates was achieved against the backdrop of a stable exchange rate of the national currency, which was supported external borrowing country and net sales of foreign currency by the population.
The bank also warns that Belarus has almost reached the threshold for external debt. Meanwhile, the net sale by the population of currency accumulated outside banks in previous years cannot be a stable source of replenishment of reserves.
- These factors of supporting the balance of payments and stabilizing the exchange rate cannot be called sustainable,- considers the EDB. - Structural problems, including the presence of excess employment in state enterprises and conservation problems of inefficient enterprises, limit the potential monetary policy to further reduce inflation. And the recovery of real incomes of the population and the easing of monetary policy in the context of persistently high inflationary expectations increase the risks of inflation accelerating in the short term.
- Insufficient progress in the implementation of market-based structural reforms increases the risks of deterioration of the country's external position in medium term. AT current year there is a significant excess of growth rates of physical volumes of imports over exports,- concluded in the EDB. According to them, fundamental imbalances in the economy still persist in Belarus. This is evidenced by a steady reduction in the inflow of direct foreign investment and an increase in the share of borrowing in financing the account deficit current operations. All of this is happening at a slow pace. economic growth and the high cost of external borrowing.
To date, it is already officially known that the Parliament of the Republic of Belarus has begun to consider the issue of foreign currency, or rather, possible developments of situations. In other words, the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018, Belarus is the number one issue and topic around which the a large number of very different and conflicting opinions. Having studied all the prepositional forecast documents, the situation that should be expected will become relatively clear. Although analysts and experts are already unanimous in their opinion, devaluation should not be expected this year.
Expert opinions.
As a rule, in order to provide at least a rough estimate of the dollar exchange rate for this year, government authorities rely on external conditions and indicators. As for internal factors, according to the majority, they have only positive influence to the dollar in the country. What can be attributed to external factors and what effect do they have? Of course, the cost of oil. Agree, this is the only important and significant external factor, which is also rightfully considered decisive. For example, if the price of oil throughout the year is established and consolidated at $35 per barrel, then the dollar exchange rate in the country will be 2.21 Belarusian rubles. In that case, if price level oil rises to $45 per barrel, the dollar exchange rate will be 2.12 Belarusian rubles.
Today, the value of the dollar is 1.96 Belarusian rubles.
Last news.
One of the top priorities political activity Belarusian authorities, is the establishment of complete de-dollarization in the country. How to understand it? It's simple, the Parliament of the Republic of Belarus decided that by the end of 2018, the use of foreign currency in settlements, as well as in the formation of prices, rates, duties and other payments, should be completely excluded. At the same time, it should be noted that at the same time all necessary measures will be carried out and taken to increase the availability of ruble funds by reducing interest rate ruble loans. It is these provisions that are spelled out and established in the program of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus in the period from 2016 to 2020, which was approved by the president.
But why does the country need this de-dollarization? What are its main tasks and goals?
As you can see, the authorities of the Republic of Belarus are taking and taking all the necessary measures to somehow stabilize the situation even with the most negative forecast for the development of the situation with the dollar exchange rate, while taking into account the facts of how the whole situation will affect the common man.
In the conditions of an unstable economic situation in the world and a crisis that has been going on for several years in a row, the government of any European state needs to know for sure how the situation with the American currency may develop in the future. Indeed, today the dollar is considered the basis of the entire world economy, therefore, even a slight fluctuation, from a negative point of view, is reflected in the overall picture of GDP development. In light of such a problem, it is very important to figure out exactly what the dollar exchange rate will be like in 2018, Belarus. Well, it's time to consider the forecasts regarding the topic raised.
Basic information
Today, we can say with confidence that the parliament of the noted republic has begun to deal with the issue of establishing its own economy with all seriousness. After all, you should be fully armed in any situation in order to continue to stay afloat. To do this, you will have to study the statements on the topic raised by experts and analysts in Belarus, and the information of independent users of well-known world departments. In fact, they all agree on one thing - in 2018 one should not be afraid of the devaluation of the ruble.
By and large, to determine the approximate assessment of the course American currency for the near future, it is only necessary to operate with external conditions and indicators. 
Internal factors have a positive effect on the state of the world currency in the country. True, for a start it is worth understanding the very concept of “internal factors”, and then understanding what exactly their influence is. The most significant factor of external origin is the cost of oil. In fact, its current state is largely considered to be decisive for the economy of any power. For example, if during the year the cost of black gold consolidates at $35 per barrel, then in Belarus itself the exchange rate of this currency will be 2.21 local rubles. By the way, now the value of the dollar is 1.96 rubles.
Last news
According to Belarusian officials, their priority in the direction of primary political activity is the need for complete de-dollarization in the state. A terrible word, to be honest, but its essence is simple: by the end of 2018, the American currency should be completely excluded from calculations, the formation of duties, rates, prices, and other payments. To achieve this goal, the parliament of the republic agrees to take the most radical measures. It is very important to take the first steps towards increasing the availability of ruble funds. To do this, however, should take care of a significant reduction in the interest rate on lending in local currency. It is this list of proposals and wishes that is spelled out in the program of socio-economic development of Belarus until the end of this decade. By the way, this resolution has already passed the process of approval by the President.
Why is it necessary to abandon the dollar?
Despite the chosen policy of the country's officials, ordinary citizens do not fully understand such a need. Why, in fact, is this very de-dollarization needed right now? It turns out that there are several reasons for such a decision?
1. Increase the possibility of increasing the availability of loans issued in national currency- rubles. If we assume that the approved program will already begin to give the desired “fruits”, by the end of this year, loan rates will be 14-15%, while in 2019 they can drop to 9-11%. It should not be thought that such a process will take place very quickly. Not only is the fluctuation of lending rates very smooth, but we should not forget to take into account the calculation of inflation rates, which can reach the required minimum much faster. According to the forecasts of the National Bank, by 2020 the inflation rate will decrease by 5%, while the interest rates on loans will be several times higher than its mark. 
2. Changes in the foreign exchange market. By the end of this year, a gradual abolition of the sale of foreign exchange earnings to experts should be carried out, which is still considered a mandatory procedure. It is during this period that the need for target purchase American currency, so that by 2020 the state government could remove any restrictions on the possibility of opening accounts in foreign banks.
3. Ensuring high dynamics of bank savings income. This trend directly depends on the reduction of lending rates. Analysts in the field of economics have found that the development financial market The Republic of Belarus is primarily focused on creating attractive conditions for investment cash savings. For the economy of the state, all this looks like in the following way- it is necessary to provide the declared area with more accessible sources of funding. At the same time, in order to achieve this goal, it will be necessary to pay attention to the creation of special investment funds, as well as a certain system used as the basis for building and housing savings. 
4. Formation and further development of the bond and stock market. A completely logical question immediately arises: will the instruments newly created by the state be profitable for the common people, while providing an acceptable level of profitability? There is no exact answer yet. That is why most experts are sure that in some 5 years Belarusians will be able to use only bank bonds and deposits as the most successful source of saving their own savings.
In conclusion, it remains only to add that even now the government of Belarus is doing everything in its power to stabilize the current situation in the country, which, by the way, was due to the jump of that same dollar. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the facts, how exactly similar situation may affect the people of the republic, for the sake of which various steps are being considered. Therefore, it is almost impossible to say exactly what the dollar exchange rate will be in 2018 in this power. Time will tell.
Due to the expected growth wages and the boom in the market consumer lending, in 2018 the US dollar against the Belarusian ruble may grow by more than 10%.
Only two weeks before the end of 2017, it finally became known how the government of the Republic of Belarus is going to fulfill the President's order to increase the average wage in the country to 1,000 BYN, and whether it is going to do it at all. This happened on December 18, when in the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus, officials presented a bill on the republican budget for 2018, amendments to Budget Code and the draft law on the state budget off-budget fund social protection of the population for 2018.
Officials do not want to raise salaries, but they will
As it turned out, the officials nevertheless decided to risk their seats, and when forming republican budget they included in it an increase in the average annual salary not up to 1 thousand BYN, but only up to 921-941 BYN. True, the draft budget is calculated based on a conservative, that is, the worst scenario for the development of the economy of the Republic of Belarus, so there is a high probability that things will go better, the budget will receive more revenue, which officials will apparently promise the president to use to increase salaries.
At the same time, the government seems to have decided to demonstrate to the president that it has done everything it could to raise wages: almost all the expected increase in budget revenues (according to the conservative scenario) is supposed to be directed to increasing wages in public sector. wage fund in consolidated budget in general, it should increase by 1.2 billion BYN in 2018 compared to 2017. This should ensure an increase in the average monthly salary in the public sector to 700 BYN from 615 BYN, which is expected this year. That is, the salary of state employees will increase by only 14%.
Will be increased in 2018 and: by 12%. Social payments will also increase. Compared to 2017, payments for these purposes will also increase by about 1.2 billion BYN.
Moreover, about 3 times (up to 1.2 billion BYN) reserve fund President, the funds from which can also be used to increase salaries, but by order of the President. Either the officials want to shift the responsibility for wage growth onto the president, or the president himself wants to directly manage the increase in wages and budget expenditures.
Thus, the salaries of state employees in 2018 will be significantly increased, although, perhaps, not to the extent required to reach 1,000 BYN in the country as a whole.
As for non-budgetary enterprises, the situation is more complicated. Officials cannot order to raise wages there, but they are quite able to threaten the management of enterprises, which is happening in some places. Thus, the administration of the Tsentralny district of Minsk sent letters to enterprises located on the territory of the district, in which it was said that the management of the enterprises also bears personal responsibility for the plan to increase wages. It turned out that the plan for the Central District in December was 1,499.3 BYN. The letter also said that for this it is possible to shift the payment of remuneration to December, that is, the executive committee hinted at how the president's order could be carried out.
It is difficult to say what effect such letters will have, but it is clear that there will be some result. Therefore, perhaps, there is no doubt that in December 2017 the salary will jump to 1 thousand BYN. There is also no doubt that in January 2018 it will fall sharply. Something similar happened at the end of last year, when there were no demands from the president yet. Many enterprises paid remuneration for the year to their employees, as a result of which the average salary in the country increased by 84 BYN (11.7%) compared to November and reached 801.6 BYN. And in January 2017, it fell by 10.1% and amounted to 720.7 BYN.
In October 2017, the average salary in the Republic of Belarus amounted to 841 BYN, that is, it is necessary to ensure an increase of 159 BYN, which is almost 2 times higher than the increase in December last year. But given the administrative resource and the increase in salaries in the public sector, this does not seem impossible.
It is important that, unlike the events of a year ago, at the beginning of 2018, salaries will not return to almost the same level. There will be directors of enterprises who will actually raise salaries, and in the public sector, its increase, in fact, has already taken place. In this regard, the situation in foreign exchange market Belarus will seriously change.
There will be a shortage of foreign currency in the domestic market of the Republic of Belarus
The expected effect can be approximately estimated by the amount of "extra" funds that will be in the hands of the population. As for the public sector, this value is known - 1.2 billion BYN. Another 1.2 billion BYN will be added by pensioners and social payments. The increase in wages in the non-budgetary sector can be estimated by the ratio of the number of employees in it to the number of state employees. We have about 850 thousand of the latter, therefore, about 4.2 times the number of employees in the non-budgetary sphere more people(assuming that we officially employ 4.5 million people).
If we assume that the directors of enterprises increase the salaries of employees to the same extent as in the public sector, then this will lead to an increase in the income of the population for the year by about 5 billion BYN (by 14% - as for state employees). Together with state employees and pensioners, this will give approximately 7.4 billion BYN. The incomes of students and officially non-working individuals will also grow, but we will not take them into account.
Of course, a significant part of these funds will be neutralized by inflation, which is expected to reach 7% in 2018. That is, about half of the increase in the income of the population can be related. Approximately 3.7 billion BYN will remain.
Where will they go? Most likely, for the purchase of goods and foreign currency, since the rates on deposits, both in rubles and in foreign currency, make savings in banks unattractive. It is difficult to say in what proportion the funds will be divided, but given the low standard of living of the majority of Belarusians, one can expect an increase in demand for goods. And this will inevitably lead to an increase in imports, that is, to an increase in demand for foreign currency from enterprises. In what proportion the demand for goods is transformed into an increase in imports is also difficult to say, but it is clear that in a significant way, given the high share of imported goods in domestic market Belarus, as well as a significant share of imported raw materials and energy carriers in the cost of goods produced in Belarus. If we approximately assume that each ruble will lead to an increase in imports by 50 kopecks, then it turns out that imports will increase by about 1.85 billion BYN, that is, in dollar terms, by about 0.9 billion USD.
But it should be borne in mind that we have another factor that will stimulate imports: a boom in the lending market, primarily consumer. As calculated in , this will lead to additional demand for the currency in the amount of about 0.6 billion USD (at least).
In total, this will ensure the emergence of additional demand for the currency in the amount of about 1.5 billion USD, which is likely to be slightly less than the net sale of foreign currency by the population this year. For 11 months, this is 1.8 billion USD, but in November net sales decreased to 64.9 million BYN, and in December they may become negative.
In principle, this is not yet a disaster, since until recently international trade The Republic of Belarus was approximately balanced, that is, the net supply of currency from the population was bought out commercial banks with the National Bank, paying off their foreign currency debts. That is, the excess of foreign currency this year did not put much pressure on the Belarusian ruble exchange rate, so the disappearance of this excess will not lead to the collapse of the ruble exchange rate.
But do not forget that in the above calculations, we focused on the minimum increase in wages, that is, its growth in reality may well turn out to be significantly higher, and additional demand for the currency will rise to 2 billion USD or even higher. In addition, enterprises and banks are well aware of the risks involved, so they will also want to save their savings by converting rubles into foreign currency.
Thus, in 2018 Belarus is very likely to experience a shortage of foreign currency in the domestic market, which will lead to an increase in demand for foreign currency from the population and enterprises and an even greater increase in the deficit. The population may well turn from a net seller of currency into its net buyer, as it was before 2016. And this is serious.
If the inhabitants of the country start buying currencies at least as much as they sell, there will be a currency deficit in the amount of about 1.5-2 billion USD per year. And it will have to be compensated by reducing the volume of imports, which, following the above logic of the ratio of wage growth and imports, requires an increase in the dollar against the Belarusian ruble by about 10%. It is possible to increase by a large amount, although in this case, after the rapid growth of wages ceases, the exchange rate may decrease.
The above calculations are of a very approximate nature, but they allow us to assess the scale of the existing risks in the country's foreign exchange market associated with the planned increase in wages. There is no alternative to the weakening of the ruble, unless, of course, the Council of Ministers and the National Bank come up with ways to tie up the funds of the population. But this is something hard to believe.
