The Forex market changes, and changes cyclically. What benefit does this bring us? The most direct: it means that situations regularly arise in Forex when price behavior becomes as predictable as possible. And if we can predict the price, then we can make money on the market. One question remains: on the basis of what can one judge the predictability of the market?
Technical analysis- this is what helps traders to predict the behavior of the market and increase their deposit.
If you want to make money on Forex with the help of technical analysis - click "explore"!
The Forex market, for both insiders and beginners, is a mystery. The exact pattern of price movement in Forex could not be revealed by the "dinosaurs" of trading, they cannot comprehend its essence and the gurus of modern financial market. Everyone who once discovered Forex tried to unravel it, excelling in the ways, methods and tools of trading.
We should pay tribute to the traders who stood at the origins of the emergence of the financial market. It was they who were the "pioneers" of Forex and the "collectors" of the primary knowledge base, on which all trading tools and Forex trading strategies are based today.
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What do we mean by "technical analysis"?
The result of their practical experience and all the knowledge they accumulated once formed the basis of the coherent logical system of Charles Dow, the legendary trader and professional journalist. His system, later supplemented and finalized, is known to us under the name "Fundamentals of Forex Technical Analysis". In this article, we will talk about what it is, for what purposes, where and how it is used.
To begin with, it should be remembered that another powerful method of market research is fundamental analysis (FA). If you do not delve into the nuances, then briefly the difference between them can be described as follows:
Fundamental analysis takes into account macroeconomic parameters, political events, various rumors and news, the behavior of the market crowd that affect the price movement. The FA gives good forecasts regarding its movement in the future, but within the framework of long term investment. it trading operations which take at least 3 months. Using FA, it is impossible, for example, to determine the strength and direction of a trend, to find models for a trend reversal or continuation, and to determine probable market entry points.
Technical analysis is, in a way, the antipode of FA, based on mathematical algorithms for processing price data on a historical time period. Short-term operations fit within a period of time from a few minutes to 1 month. Longer time periods reduce the effectiveness of using TA in the analysis of the market situation.
Traders use the technical analysis system to determine behavior foreign exchange market. Technical indicators are used to predict the price movement - to determine the direction of its movement, the points of probable entry into the market and the amount of possible profit.
Forecasting the price movement in the future is based on the analysis of its behavior in the past. certain period time. Using the technical analysis method, you can:
- determine the current ratio of buyers and sellers in the market;
- track fluctuations market value ;
- determine the price trend– find reversal or trend continuation patterns;
- predict the likelihood of growth / fall in market value;
- track pricing in the foreign exchange and stock markets.
It is clear that the trader analyzes the currency market using the method that best suits the investment plans of his trading deposit.
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Charles Dow and the basic principles of TA
TA is a universal method in the study of any financial assets – shares, options or futures, currency pairs . In a series of articles, Charles Dow in the WallStreet Journal (1900-1902) singled out three main principles, on which his theory of technical analysis is built:
Market "omnivorous"
The pricing process is influenced by a lot of factors - everything that happens in the world, one way or another, has an impact on the formation market price. The current quote includes, for example, economic and political news, natural disasters, forecasted market trends and even, expectations of market players.
Cyclicity of events
The price is moving chaotically, but at the same time, in this movement there is also some regularity. The method of technical analysis allows us to trace this pattern over a long historical period. At one time, even Charles Dow paid attention to the stability of market formations, which explains the tendency for prices to return to their previous positions. This happens because some events, regardless of the time and nature of their origin, market participants tend to react in the same way.
By studying the cause of these events, their development and the market reaction to them, one can make forecasts for a similar situation in the present. It is this factor that underlies the development of typical TA chart patterns - for example, a price reversal model or a model for continuing its movement. With their help, traders analyze the behavior of prices over a historical period of time and predict its movement in the future. This feature of the market is also used by technical analysis to build mathematical algorithms and determine the logic of technical indicators.
Mister "Trend"
Price movement is not accidental. If at one time interval its movement seems chaotic, then at another time interval you can see that it is moving in one particular direction. Such a price movement is called a "trend" and its three types are considered:
- downtrend(“downtrend” or “bearish” trend - falling price);
- Uptrend("uptrend" or "bullish" trend - a rising price);
- Flat ("sideways" or "sideways" - the price moves in a sideways direction).
Figure 1. Trend types
Despite the sharp amplitude price movements, it can be determined that they are part of another trend.
Each of the above types of trend is characterized by the following time periods of price movement:
Main (primary)- affects long-term trading operations, taking into account price movements over one year. Hedge funds and major market players operate during this period.
Secondary– here, in the interval of 1–6 months, there is a price correction and its rollbacks (of the main period). It is on this time period, for the most part, that the market crowd works.
Small– for this period, lasting from a couple of minutes to several hours, the formation of short-term multidirectional price impulses is typical. To a greater extent, their appearance is associated with the events studied by fundamental analysis, to a lesser extent, with the events studied by technical analysis. This period is used for intraday trading and scalping.
According to Charles Dow's theory, directional price movement is determined at any point in time. Practice shows that almost 70% of the time the price is in a flat and only 30% of the time it moves in a direction. In lateral movement, it can move almost linearly or with a wide amplitude between the max/min points.
In both cases, a trader can easily conduct a medium- or long-term analysis of the chart.
The technical analysis system has other important rules which read as follows:
- When determining a trend, its change, development and movement must be confirmed by volumes.
There are disputes between analysts as to how much market volumes can affect the accuracy of forecasts. For Forex, this is especially true, since there is no information on volumes for open transactions. The basic rule must always be observed - volumes must grow, both in the fall and in the growth of the market. Therefore, for example, if technical analysis does not confirm a new trend by volume, it can be considered short-term.
- The period of life of any trend is due to the formation of a reversal signal.
This rule in Forex is considered important: you can close the current position and open a new deal in the opposite direction only after confirming a trend reversal.
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How is the price displayed on the chart?
For price analysis and forecasting it is important to understand the visualization of its movement on the chart. You should also know what a "timeframe" is, since all methods of technical analysis take into account quote data for a certain period of time. Let's first deal with the timeframes themselves, and only after that we will consider how the price movement is displayed on the chart.
timeframe
This is a term denoting a certain period of time in which the price changed and moved. Timeframe names are the same for all trading terminals is an alphanumeric designation of nine time periods. Letter is an abbreviation for the name of the time interval itself (Minute, Hour, Day, etc.), and number next to it shows its "temporary" meaning:
Figure 2. List of timeframes
As you can see, working with timeframes is not particularly difficult. No need to try to "thoughtlessly" memorize their names, you just need to understand the logic of their designation. You can select the period in the toolbar of the trading terminal through the built-in panel " TF selection» or using the icon « Periods» with a drop-down list of TF.
Figure 3. Choosing a timeframe (TF) in the trading terminal
On the graph, the intervals are separated by vertical dotted lines. It is clear that for each currency instrument, for example, for one working day on H1 there will be 24 (24 hours a day: 1 hour = 24) such periods. There will be more such separators on the M15:
(24 hours => 24 x 60 minutes = 1440 minutes => 1440 minutes: 15 minutes = 96)
If you are interested, calculate by yourself how many hour periods there will be in 1 day or in 1 month.
In the settings of the terminal properties window, you can enable/disable the display of period separators on the chart:
Figure 4. Display of period separators on the chart
You can call this context window by clicking the right mouse button on the background of the work schedule of the selected currency pair.
Types of price chart
To spend qualitative analysis foreign exchange market and study its trends, should choose the most convenient option displaying the price on the chart. In addition to the personal preferences of the trader, this issue also takes into account the features of the trading strategy on which he works. Let's look at what types of charts are "embedded" in the trading terminal and placed on the toolbar as a separate block:
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Technical analysis methods
All methods of market analysis and forecasting can be divided into two types - graphic and mathematical.
Graphic Methods
These include methods that study the price chart for certain formations - graphic figures, candle patterns or patterns. These are visually distinguishable formations, their appearance on the chart is associated with the patterned response of market players to certain similar conditions. All chart formations have two basic functions:
- Forecast of price movement direction.
- Potential Profit Calculation(determining the amount of price movement).
Types of graphic shapes
The classic chart patterns of technical analysis are universal tools for all types of market. They also work well on all timeframes and do not prevent traders from additionally using technical indicators.
Mathematical Methods
These research methods are based on mathematical analysis of historical price movement data. Technical indicators are special technical analysis tools that can be used to track the dynamics of price changes. These include, for example:
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Summing up
Using TA methods, a trader can conduct deep Scan market situation. He has many different tools in his arsenal. All of them, both graphical and mathematical, are designed to solve specific problems. They are easily combined with each other, expanding the possibilities of a trader, reducing the risk of loss and increasing his chance of profit.
The main postulate of technical analysis is that make a decision using only one tool is impossible. Data from one instrument should be confirmed by data from one or two other instruments belonging to different groups.
Success in investing / trading depends on many factors, one of which is an accurate analysis of the situation. Most often, success is achieved through the correct application of fundamental and technical analysis. evaluates macroeconomic indicators and helps to determine the priority goal in investing. And the technical one helps in the process of achieving it, denoting the main milestones along the way. We can say that technical analysis is signs and road signs that are encountered on the path of a motorist traveling on a wide road. It is clear that the route is the initial strategy, which is based on fundamental analysis current situation. Both types of analysis are in high demand for all types of trading in the financial markets and perfectly complement each other. From this article you will learn:
- Technical analysis - what is it;
- Fundamentals of technical analysis and its types;
- Advantages and disadvantages;
- Where to start learning technical analysis.
The concept of technical analysis. Predicting the future
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It is generally accepted that the initial ideas of technical analysis were voiced by Charles Dow, who was engaged in investing in exchange assets and was the editor of the Wall Street Journal tabloid. In particular, he is credited with the following postulates:
- Market dynamics react to all data flow and are always reflected in the price;
- Markets are governed by cycles that inevitably repeat themselves;
- To determine the trend, it is necessary to determine the dominant cycle in the market.
Charles Dow was a well-known theorist and practitioner of stock investments, so it is not surprising that thanks to the publication of his ideas, a theory describing the behavior of the market was born. This, in turn, gave rise to a new direction in market forecasting. After all, if the cycles have a repeating structure, then it is possible to predict the price of an asset based on its behavior in the past and on the basis of the technical picture it has built. Since the market has a kind of memory, comparing and analyzing the technical characteristics of quotes in the past, it is possible to predict their behavior in the future with a fairly accurate coefficient.
Years of technology development have contributed to the improvement of methods for finding such matches, and now technical analysis is one of the key elements of investing. And although its inner concept has remained the same, the methods of analysis itself have changed. Mathematical calculation of probabilities and coincidences, as well as added automatic algorithms, have simplified the task for traders. In addition, there are a number large companies, providing access to in-depth technical analysis. They use an extended technical base, which would be unprofitable for a single investor. In particular we are talking about programs autochartist and Trading Central, whose services are used by many traders and investors. Based on the methodology for predicting prices in the future, based on similar behavior in the past, the following main subspecies of technical analysis can be distinguished:
Analysis of graphic figures. It is based on the method of identifying patterns of technical analysis, which serve as a kind of trading signal and a guide to action. In turn, all patterns are conditionally divided into patterns of trend continuation and reversal, as well as transition to range trading. This is perhaps one of the most popular and working methods of technical analysis, since many of the patterns are quite easy to spot on the chart without serious skills (triangle, double top/bottom or rectangle). In addition, the analysis of graphic figures allows you to determine important ones, build trend channels.
Analysis of the range of fluctuations.
Any price fluctuation that has occurred in the market at a certain moment can be displayed on the chart in several ways. Most used - Japanese candles and bars. The analysis technique is based on the fact that the weakness or strength shown by the price will be visually confirmed in the body of the candle or bar. Candlestick analysis has a long history, developed patterns and is quite easy to use.
Any Japanese candlestick has an opening/closing price, a high/low price and is colored depending on the state of the market (black is bearish, white is bullish). Candlestick analysis takes into account the main body, the presence of spikes (shadows) and the color of the candle. Analysis using bars is similar to the methods of evaluating the market using Japanese candlesticks. Each bar indicates an open/close price and a minimum/maximum price. However, unlike Japanese candlesticks, the bar body has less visual information that can be relied upon in the analysis. At the same time, both Japanese candlesticks and bars are successfully used, both as separate indicators and as part of candlestick patterns or trading patterns.
wave analysis
It was first proposed by Ralph Elliott as a theory to explain development and change. market models. According to him, any process in the market is not homogeneous and growth is followed by a fall (or correction). He identified eight waves (five for growth and three for correction) into which any market movement can be decomposed.
The calculation of the wavelength is based on the mathematical formulas of Fibonacci. This allows you to predict the development of the situation by determining the current wave. Wave analysis is considered the most difficult to master and apply in practice, of all the means of technical analysis.
Analysis by volumes, option levels, data from exchanges and commissions on securities. A relatively young type of analysis, which owes its appearance to a new line of trading terminals that collect and analyze a large amount of trading information. In addition, most major sites and financial market regulators provide detailed reports from the futures and stock markets, for which you can predict the price behavior. This analysis is based on the idea that the market goes from buyer to seller, so a strong supply / demand at a certain level will cause a bounce or a price reversal.
Indicator analysis.
As in the previous case, I owe it to technological progress. Today it is difficult to imagine an investor who would not turn to indicators or advisers. Most of them work automatically, saving the trader's resources. In addition, the abundance of indicators allows you to build such trading strategies that cannot be created with manual market analysis.
Where to begin?
The listed methods of technical analysis are only a part of the variety that can be used in everyday work. The main thing when working with them is not to forget that different instruments require their own individual approach, based on the identified historical patterns. Before proceeding to the application of technical analysis in practice, the investor must make sure that the analysis option he has chosen is suitable for the developed investment concept. It will also be important general training investor, because the wrong interpretation of the data can lead to negative results.
At first, it is better to use simple methods of technical analysis, such as candlestick, pattern analysis and indicator. Candlestick analysis is considered an "old-timer" among the methods of technical analysis and migrated to Western markets from Asian traders.
Its trump card is ease of use. To assess the situation, it is enough to glance at the graph. The same can be said about some of the combinations formed on the basis of such an analysis. This statement applies most to reversal patterns (hanging man, hammer, shooting star) and less to trend continuation patterns (Three Candles Method, Three White Soldiers, etc.). If you do not go into details (there are more than 100 combinations in total), but focus on the simplest ones, then it will take several days to master this type of technical analysis. In addition, there are indicators that automatically track formed patterns and give trading tips. To disadvantage this method can be attributed to the fact that on small time periods, his testimony may be false. Therefore, you need to use candlestick analysis on higher timeframes, from D1 and above.
The main way to study the Forex market is technical analysis, which is a forecast of future price movements based on their behavior in the past. With its help, you can follow the fluctuations in the market value and determine its possible increase or decrease. Most often, technical analysis is used to track the pricing of stock and currency exchanges. Partially the basics are described in the article -
Forex technical analysis concept
When evaluating the information obtained as a result of technical analysis, the trader receives all kinds of tools for forecasting. Most often, when analyzing the foreign exchange market, they rely on:
Forecast from site
Examples of technical analysis
But the most effective assessment tool is a combination of all methods for predicting price movements.
Articles on technical analysis
Axioms of technical analysis
Price changes reflect all information
This axiom says that all the information that is needed for value analysis is already included in the price and trading volume. And according to the dynamics of their ratio, it is possible to predict the development of the market. Technical analysis is convenient because it does not require studying all external factors that affect the foreign exchange market, and makes it possible to quickly and accurately obtain a forecast.
Price movement is subject to trends.
The meaning of this statement is that the price movement is not a random value, but has certain trends. Therefore, it is possible to split the time series of prices into intervals during which the change takes place in one direction. Therefore, the charts of price changes have a smooth wave-like form, consisting of peaks in the rise in value and dips. Hence the selection of three main trends in the development of the Forex market - an uptrend (when the price rises), downtrend(price is falling) and sideways (price is unchanged).
History repeats itself.
The essence of the axiom is that every event, whether it is the history of mankind or the situation on the Forex currency market, is repeated, because the reaction of the participants remains the same. And knowing the past, you can easily predict situations in the future. By studying market events, you can find similar ones in the past, view their development and draw conclusions about how they can continue in the future. Based on this axiom, a number of traditional standard patterns ("figures") have been developed to predict price behavior. The very first method for analyzing the market is considered to be a chart created by Japanese rice traders.
Technical analysis methods
For the correct and most accurate forecasting of price movements in the foreign exchange market, many methods of technical analysis are used.
The main and oldest method is graphical analysis based on graphing. They clearly demonstrate the behavior of Forex prices, forming typical figures, which can be used to easily determine the direction of movement. stand out different kinds patterns: continuation patterns, which conclude that the price will move in the same direction, reversal patterns, which indicate a trend change in the near future, etc. This method does not have sufficient accuracy, but it is effective, convenient and easy to use.
FOREX technical analysis figures
A more complex and time-consuming method of technical analysis is a mathematical method of forecasting. This method is based on the use of various mathematical formulas and calculations. With its help, the so-called market indicators are built, which indicate the "oversold" or "overbought" of the market. The mathematical method itself is divided into two directions - "trend" and "flat".
The essence of the "trend" direction is the construction of a middle line according to a certain formula, which crosses the entire chart. Depending on the level at which the time series of prices is relative to this line, assumptions are made about the long-term development of the foreign exchange market. The most difficult thing in this method of technical analysis is to find a formula for building a trend. The direction of trading in a "flat" or side trend is based on the construction of lines that show the proximity to price extremes as a refracted line. Each method scales and at different scales, trend trading may seem flat, and vice versa, this is the cornerstone of technical analysis, it is difficult to find a point of relativity from which to start reasoning.
And the last method of technical analysis is cyclical, which is based on the theory of cycles, according to which all changes occur cyclically in the night-day type. As a result of this method, integers are constructed trading systems(Forex trading robots), which are able to answer the eternal question of a trader: buy or sell on time.
Thus, using Forex technical analysis, it is possible to predict price movements with a high probability, thereby receiving a stable income when working on the foreign exchange market.
Online testing of indicator readings
Almost any bidder in the foreign exchange market knows that technical analysis of the international Forex market is a widely used way to predict changes in the price of currency quotes. Technical analysis of events Forex market, including daily, is formed by traders on the charts of currency quotes for a certain period of time. In other words, technical analysis of the Forex market means a detailed study of changes in currency quotes, with the help of which a trader can establish possible trend changes in the future.
The Most Important Elements of Forex Technical Analysis
The technical analysis of the Forex market provided to the trader is divided into several categories and subspecies. One of the most popular types of analytics is candlestick analysis, the essence of which is to find typical reversal or trend continuation patterns in the history of currency quotes (“Double Top”, “Triangle”, “Head and Shoulders”, “Wedge”, etc.) . The appearance of any of the above figures on the chart means that the trader can predict future price movements, as well as the possible moment of its breakthrough.
With regard to additional, auxiliary tools in the technical analysis of the foreign exchange market, it is necessary to mention such an important component as technical indicators integrated in each trading platform. There are many types of such indicators, so any trader can develop their own trading strategy for anyone financial instrument, based on the indicators of one or another indicator.
In general, it is the technical analysis of the Forex market that is recommended for novice traders, since various automated programs, indicators and advisers associated with it are a significant help in conducting trading operations.
Real-time technical analysis of the foreign exchange market is one of the most effective ways to research the market. It is a prediction of the price movement of an asset based on an analysis of past movements. The technique allows you to track fluctuations in the course in the past and, taking into account the data obtained, determine where the chart will go - north or south. The peculiarity of the technique lies in the fact that the price is studied solely on the basis of its movement. The complex technical does not include an assessment of the fundamental factors that could cause the quotes to move in a certain direction.
Fundamentals of technical analysis
The basis of technical analysis is a tandem of interrelated activities that allow you to determine the subsequent movement of the trend with maximum accuracy. The use of one tool within the technique, in particular one of the indicators or only support and resistance lines, is not effective. Comparison of data for several instruments allows you to make the most accurate forecast. The assessment of the market situation is based on several parameters, such as changes in value, volume of transactions, number of open positions. The price always remains the dominant parameter for evaluating the market movement, the other values considered only complete the picture and confirm the forecast made.
Basic principles of analysis
Real-time technical analysis of the foreign exchange market is based on three main principles that not only a professional, but also a novice trader should know:
- The currency market in its movement takes into account absolutely everything. The price chart reflects the political and economic forces. For example, the lifting of EU sanctions against Iran for the supply of oil to the international market or the payment of EU debt by Greece can be attributed to the most powerful stimulants for the movement of currencies.
- Trends repeat themselves systematically. From time to time, the price will draw identical figures, which are called patterns. This is due to the fact that, despite the changing situation in the world, the psychological factor never changes, and traders in most cases use patterns of behavior in the market. To say more, traders are used to reacting to certain news in the same way. Knowing the reactions of market participants, you can open and close positions in a timely manner.
- At the heart of any movement is a trend. Technical analysis of the foreign exchange market in real time is simply impossible without determining the main trend in the market. If chaos reigned within its framework, there would be no question of any forecasting, and even more so of making money through speculation on prices.
Basic concepts in technology
Technical analysis of the foreign exchange market in real time is based on the basic concepts. It is impossible to start analyzing the situation if you do not understand trends. In total, there are three formats of market movement:
- Bullish trend (or uptrend) - the price is heading up.
- Downward trend (or bearish trend) - the price is directed downwards.
- A side trend (or flat) is a period of stagnation in the market, a certain moment of uncertainty. The price is moving in a narrow price range, and market participants are only thinking about which way they should open positions.
Let's pay attention to the fact that each of the trends in its pure form is a rarity in the market. Any movement of quotes is accompanied by rollbacks. Beginners are advised to trade only with pronounced trends. Even professionals are wary of flat market conditions, since probable profits are not justified by high risks.
Technical analysis tools
Technical analysis tools can be:
- bar charts;
- indicators;
- oscillators;
- channels;
- waves;
- graphic shapes.
Each of the tools has certain advantages. A detailed understanding of each functional will allow you to analyze the situation and take the right decision. You should not be guided by only one instrument, as its signal for the transaction may be false. Another thing is when several instruments show identical signals at the same time, which opens up wide prospects for making money. Previously, technical analysis tools were not automated, as they are today. In order to analyze the situation, it was necessary to draw graphs by hand and carry out calculations. So learning each tool is not that difficult, but it is essential.
Technical analysis figures are the most reliable patterns
Within the framework of technical analysis, there are well-established patterns that are determined by the behavior patterns of both large market participants and small ones. They are embodied in the format of certain graphic figures. An example would be the flag and double top, triple bottom and head - shoulders. As soon as the figure appears on the chart, and the price passes a certain line, we can confidently talk about the further direction of movement.
What do the figures say and why are they needed?
Note that there are patterns of trend continuation and trend reversal. The frequency of occurrence of such patterns on the chart is different depending on the time period and on the traded instrument (currency pair). The percentage of working out of such patterns can be from 80% and above. It is not enough to understand the theory. Technical analysis of the online currency market based on graphical figures should be accompanied by practice. Only by trading for a long time, you can learn to see patterns and use them to your advantage. In practice, any figures will not have such a clear and concise appearance, as in the pictures.
Technology Benefits
Technical analysis of the Forex currency market is the foundation of the basics, from which every beginner's acquaintance with the foreign exchange market begins. Experienced players use the technique as a tool to analyze the behavior of beginners. So, inexperienced traders often make decisions based only on emerging support and resistance lines. Knowing this big players can predict the direction of movement due to the mass nature of the solution, which allows them to occupy the most advantageous positions. It is not for nothing that there are statistics according to which only a few percent of participants earn in the foreign exchange market. There is even a theory that, acting contrary to the signals of technology, you can get a solid income, but many will begin to dispute this issue.
Understanding technical analysis is a step towards successful trading
The basics of technical analysis of the currency market, although they are basic, cannot serve as the only tool for building your own. Effective trading happens only when, in addition to the technique, fundamental analysis and computer are used. You should not use all the tools of the technique at the same time, as this will only overload the chart and lead to confusion in the signals. Experts recommend that beginners study in detail one tool in each type of market analysis, depending on the most appropriate trading format. This approach will avoid losses and losses, will bring good trading results.
