Analytical research method economic systems often done through modeling, one of the conditions of which is that the functional ratio of the main parameters of the economic system should not change during the period under review.
However, this condition is often difficult to fulfill, especially in the presence of a transitional economy.
The interpretation of the causes of the revealed regularities requires special care. Often the researcher explains the results obtained by the influence of one variable on another, however, his opponents point out that the same results can be obtained due to the reverse effect or the impact of a third factor on these variables.
Modeling the labor market involves taking into account that in this model, on the one hand, entrepreneurs act as sellers of goods and "buyers" of labor, and on the other hand, households act as buyers of goods and "sellers" of their labor. An economist modeling this situation must objectively take into account the bilateral economic interests, which can manifest themselves in clear statistical criteria, and sometimes in indirect, but no less significant factors.
Modeling socio-economic processes with preliminary diagnostics is the most important prerequisite for state regulation of the economy and the development of forecasts.
State forecasting - it is a system of scientifically based ideas about certain areas of social economic development countries.
In the context of the transition to market relations forecasting becomes the initial stage, the basis of the entire management system: a change in the market conditions of development trajectories, an increase in the choice of its options, an increase in the intensity of the search for ways out of negative situations is achieved with the help of developed system alternative predictions. In addition, in a market economy, the number of entities that independently, under their own responsibility make certain decisions (state-owned enterprises and enterprises with foreign investment, cooperatives, farms, local authorities of republics, territories, regions). Each of these subjects needs to anticipate changes in market conditions, the possible consequences of their decisions.
Forecasts are developed in several versions and include quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the development of the macroeconomic situation.
For example, population employment forecasts are built on the basis of demographic, social, scientific and technical, environmental, foreign economic, sectoral, regional and other forecasts of individual areas of activity. The result of state forecasting is the documents necessary to regulate the development of the economy and develop a concept for the development of the country.
The basis of scientific forecasting is knowledge of:
- a) about the essence of the processes in the predicted system during the characteristic time of its development (during the full cycle of the development of the system or its part);
- b) changes during the same time in the external conditions in which the system develops;
- c) on the state and trends of development at the time of the forecast and on the degree of coincidence of the predicted direction of development with the direction of events predetermined by specific control actions.
Comprehensive predictive studies involve the use of several methods, each of which is designed to solve a special class of problems that arise at various stages of forecast development.
The starting point in the development of normative forecasts is the setting of the ultimate goal of the development of the process. the main problem research is the alignment of this distant goal with the actions in the present and future that need to be taken to achieve it. One of the tasks of experts is to build the so-called event graph from top to bottom: from the original goal (top of the graph) to its base. Each event is a condition for reaching the top-level event.
Forecasting such socio-economic processes as employment and the labor market takes into account the system of labor balances, which includes a set of balances that characterize various aspects of reproduction labor resources. With the help of these balances, the most important regularities in the use of labor resources are revealed both for the country as a whole and for its individual, as a rule, the most major regions. Therefore, along with the consolidated balance of labor resources, private labor balances are compiled or calculations are made for individual elements of the labor force balance. The data of labor balances are used to determine the total number of labor resources, the level of employment of the population, the structure of employees by profession, etc.
Conditional assumptions about the functioning of the goods market determine the situation in the labor market. These assumptions in all cases imply complete adjustment of supply to demand at given prices (with constant interest rate, the price of goods and the rate wages, as well as with a constant value of fixed capital and property capital). This circumstance means the possibility of using additional labor to increase additional production.
This kind of situation characterizes the short-term equilibrium in the presence of opportunistic and involuntary unemployment. In this equilibrium, producers are ready to offer any quantity of goods requested by consumers at the prevailing market price for goods, and employees are ready to offer any quantity of work requested by employers at a given wage rate.
Unemployment is a constant companion market economy, the result of the interaction between the market demand for labor and its supply.
Unemployment forecasting is most often based on a stable relationship: during a recession, unemployment increases, and during periods of recovery it decreases, but there are always people looking for work.
Unemployment is measured by two main indicators: its level and its duration. The unemployment rate is calculated as the proportion of officially registered completely unemployed in the total economically active population, and the duration of unemployment determines how long people have been unemployed. By comparing the unemployment rate with its duration, it is possible to assess its significance. With a higher unemployment rate, but its short duration, the situation may be more favorable than with reciprocal values.
Excessive unemployment entails serious economic and social costs. The main economic cost of unemployment is an uncreated product.
The American economist A. Oken, projecting the consequences of unemployment, deduced a mathematical pattern according to which a 1% excess of the actual unemployment rate over the natural one causes a 2.5% lag in the growth of GNP.
Other costs are the need to keep the unemployed, as well as the possibility of mass unrest, which can lead to social and political changes. Therefore, the state regulates employment (and, consequently, unemployment) in the labor market. The main thing in this process is the implementation of an active employment policy, which does not exclude social protection from involuntary unemployment.
social design, focused, among other things, on preventing unemployment for the most economically active part of the population, is associated with the concept "human capital", which means the existing stock of knowledge, skills, motivations. Investments in human capital can be education, the accumulation of production experience, health care, geographic mobility, information retrieval. When investing in education, a person behaves rationally, weighing the corresponding benefits and costs.
In foreign economic practice the concept of "human capital" is already used at the level of theoretical substantiation. In particular, G. Becker was the first to carry out a practical, statistically correct calculation economic efficiency education. To determine income, such as from higher education, the lifetime earnings of those who graduated from college were subtracted from the lifetime earnings of those who limited themselves to graduating from high school. As part of the cost of training, "lost earnings" were singled out as the main element, i.e. income lost by students during their years of study. Comparing the benefits and costs of education makes it possible to calculate the return on investment in a person. According to Becker's calculations, in the United States the return on higher education is at the level of 10-15%, which exceeds the profitability of most firms. This confirmed his assumption about the rationality of the behavior of students and their parents.
Of great theoretical importance was the distinction introduced by Becker between special and general investments in a person (and, more broadly, between general and specific resources in general). Realization of knowledge is determined by management technology, i.e. the transformation of knowledge into an organizational project, a scheme, a plan, a way of assembling, the correct arrangement of resources.
As soon as we accept this, industrial civilization ends, mass production ceases to be a source of wealth, especially against the backdrop of increasing competition. developing countries, which throw out on the market more and more cheap and high-quality goods.
The source of wealth in human capital is what produces new knowledge: culture, education, ability to think, ways of thinking, technology. engineering solutions, scientific research, design development.
The theory of intellectual capital produces the concept of "intellectual production". The main element of value creation is no longer knowledge itself, but the ways of using it.
The factors of economic growth are: technology, human capital (education and skills of people) and economies of scale (cost reduction with the growth of the market).
According to the theory human capital the quality of the labor force is one of the main factors of economic growth. In turn, the quality of the labor force is determined by the level of human capital, which includes the abilities, knowledge, skills, and competence inherent in individuals. Its most important forms are education, advanced training and labor migration.
- Essentially, lost earnings measure the value of students' time spent building their human capital.
- Becker G. Human capital // Economic sociology. 2001. Vol. 2. No. 1.
FEDERAL AGENCY FOR EDUCATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
STATE EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION OF HIGHER
PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION
KAZAN STATE TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT AND LAW
COURSE WORK
discipline: "Economic and mathematical modeling"
on the topic: "Economic and mathematical modeling of the processes of labor migration and unemployment"
Completed: Lobanova E.V.
The work is protected "__" _____ 2011
Supervisor _________________
KAZAN 2011
Introduction
1. Theoretical foundations of the organization and functioning of the labor market
2. Economic and mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes
3. Unemployment
3.1. The concept and consequences of unemployment
3.2. Accounting for the unemployed
3.3. Types of unemployment
3.4. The cost of unemployment
3.5. Classical and Keynesian models of unemployment. Government measures to address unemployment
4. Migration4.1. Theory of migration4.2. Integration theory4.3. Conclusions from practice 4.4. Simple migration models 4.4.1. Harris-Todaro model4.4.2. Benefits vector model 4.4.3. Model of the theory of human capital4.4.4. Conclusion from the model4.5. Impact of labor movement on comparative advantage and welfare 4.5.1. Benefits of the "host" country from immigration 4.5.2. Negative manifestations of immigration for the "host" country4.5.3. Benefits of labor movement for the country of emigration 4.5.4. Negative consequences for the country of emigrationConclusionReferences
Introduction
My term paper deals with such issues as labor migration and unemployment, or rather, the economic and mathematical modeling of these processes. Migration as a phenomenon was known back in the 10th century. Throughout time, it has undergone changes due to the fact that it has changed social order and, consequently, the worldview of people. States already then made attempts to manage, systematize and fix migration processes. And only today these attempts lead to positive results. In my opinion, the problem of migration is very relevant now, because many people have the opportunity to freely enter the territory of foreign states. For the most part, people travel to the territory of another country (or their city) in an attempt to find at least a temporary or better-paid job. The process of internationalization of production that is actively taking place all over the world is accompanied by the internationalization of the workforce. Labor migration has become a part of international economic relations. Migration flows rush from some regions and countries to others. Giving rise to certain problems, labor migration provides undoubted advantages to countries that receive and supply labor. emergencies and natural Disasters are large-scale intra-country and inter-country movements of the population and labor resources in various forms. These are voluntary migrants who use the rights and opportunities provided to them by world civilization and international labor markets to choose their place of residence and work. These are refugees and forced migrants who leave their homes not of their own free will, but under the pressure of "circumstances." The world community, which until recently did not directly feel the dimensions, features and consequences of migration processes at the international acute situations and collective regulation of migration flows.
The current transition to market relations in Russia is associated with great difficulties, the emergence of many social economic problems. One of them is the problem of employment, which is inextricably linked with people and their production activities.
The market presents and requires a completely different level of labor relations at each enterprise. However, until effective mechanisms for the use of labor resources are created, new and old employment problems are emerging, and unemployment is growing.
Mass poverty and social insecurity of the general population is our reality.
The transition to a market economy has inevitably led to major changes in the use of labor resources. With perestroika economic life many factors affecting the qualitative characteristics of the labor market have appeared in the country. The emigration of the population to non-CIS countries mainly covers highly qualified personnel, specialists who are able to withstand competition in the global labor market. For Russia, it will have a double effect - on the one hand, the supply of labor will be reduced, on the other, its quality will deteriorate.
The regulatory role of the state should be to constantly maintain a balance between economic priorities and employment priorities in the programs of economic transformation.
The basic concepts in describing the mechanism of functioning of any market are supply and demand. In the labor market, which is a very specific market, supply is formed by workers (sellers), and employers (buyers) act as demanders. Consideration of the joint dynamics of demand for labor and its supply is undoubtedly relevant both in theoretical and practical terms.
The most important task of economic science is the analysis and forecasting of socio-economic processes for purposeful influence on them. Modern science has a wide arsenal of relevant tools, among which a special place is occupied by economic and mathematical modeling, which is relatively free from subjective ideas and predilections. It is the economic and mathematical methods and models that are designed to help comprehend current situation on the labor market and choose adequate instruments for its regulation.
An analysis of the scientific literature shows that most labor market research is of a qualitative nature, and the use of quantitative methods is aimed at solving certain particular problems. It seems necessary to use in this case the principle of consistency in the development of economic and mathematical models of the labor market.
Mathematical modeling of the labor market as a socio-economic system naturally relies on a fairly extensive and deeply developed apparatus of economic and mathematical methods and models.
The goal I set in my term paper, - consideration of economic and mathematical models of the processes of labor migration and unemployment. In this regard, my tasks included consideration of such items as: theoretical basis organization and functioning of the labor market, economic and mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes, unemployment (the concept and consequences of unemployment, accounting for the unemployed, types of unemployment, unemployment costs, classical and Keynesian models of unemployment, government measures to address unemployment), migration (migration theory , integration theory, lessons learned, simple migration models (Harris-Todaro Model, Advantage Vector Model, Human Capital Theory Model)), impact of labor movement on comparative advantages and welfare (benefits of the "host" country from immigration, negative manifestations immigration for the "receiving" country, benefits from the movement of labor for the country of emigration, negative consequences for the country of emigration).
1. Theoretical foundations of the organization and functioning of the labor market
A unified definition of the concept of "labor market" in the Russian economics has not worked out to date. In a number of works, a view has been formed on the labor market as a system of socio-economic relations between the subjects of the labor market regarding the whole complex of labor relations.
As a result of a comparison of existing economic literature views and positions on the essence of the labor market, we can give the following definition: the labor market is a system of relations and a socio-economic mechanism of interaction between employers, employees and social partners regarding the formation, distribution and use of labor in terms of its marketability.
From the point of view of the process of interaction between the bearers of demand and supply of labor, the organized labor market can be defined more narrowly. The organization of the market, and more specifically the process of meeting sellers and buyers of any product, is given by the presence of certain institutions that mediate the conclusion of a transaction. Those. the presence of a specialized intermediary institution is assumed to be a necessary sign of organization. one.
Rice. 1. Intermediary institutions of the organized labor market.
The most important indicators of the labor market, like any other market, are the values of supply and demand, and the study of their interaction is the most interesting and relevant, both theoretical and practical task. The main quantitative indicators of supply and demand for current market labor are the number of unemployed and vacant jobs in the considered economic system.
In Russian statistics, as well as throughout the world, two methods of measuring unemployment are used. The first - according to the registrations of the unemployed in public service Employment (SPS), the second - according to the results of regular labor force surveys, in which the status of the unemployed is determined based on ILO criteria.
2. Economic and mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes
The labor market belongs to the class of complex probabilistic dynamic systems. The main method for studying such systems is the modeling method , those. a way of theoretical and practical action aimed at the development and use of models.
The labor market as an object of economic and mathematical modeling is quite complex and diverse. The range of specific problems in the field of labor market research is very wide. Accordingly, the formulation of tasks and the concretization of the processes of the labor market, which are the objects of modeling, determine the specifics of the methods used in the study.
When setting optimization problems, when it is necessary to select the optimal solution from the point of view of the selected optimality criteria, various methods of mathematical programming are used: linear, nonlinear, dynamic, stochastic, integer, etc.
A special place in the study of the labor market is occupied by balance models, both static and dynamic. They are used to model the intersectoral balance of labor costs, to study the movement of the population and labor resources, and so on.
When solving a number of problems within the framework of the labor market, methods and models of queuing theory and game theory find their application. Modeling of intersectoral and interregional migration of labor resources is based on stochastic models based on Markov processes.
The direct object of the study is the interaction between labor supply and demand in the organized regional labor market.
There is a set of models for analyzing and forecasting the demand and supply of labor (Fig. 2. 
Rice. 2. A set of models for analyzing and forecasting the demand and supply of labor
A deterministic model of the dynamics of labor supply and demand was also developed in the form of a system of nonlinear control systems:
(1)
where is the number of potential workers (unemployed in accordance with the ILO methodology), is the number of vacancies (unoccupied vacancies), is the number of economically active population.
An approach to modeling the coordination of demand and supply of labor using the apparatus of differential equations was developed in the works of Korovkin A.G. and his students and tested on the empirical data of the labor markets of Russia and Moscow.
The proposed model based on a system of nonlinear control is applicable both to the general labor market and to the organized market. In the latter case, the model can be modified by introducing an additional coefficient into it with the parameter characterizing the ratio of registered and general unemployment in the labor market conditions of a particular region.
Thus, the developed model of labor supply and demand dynamics based on a system of non-linear differential equations can serve as an adequate tool for a qualitative general theoretical understanding of the labor market processes occurring in the economic system under consideration.
3. Unemployment
3.1. The concept and consequences of unemployment
Unemployment- a social phenomenon that implies the lack of work for people who make up the economically active population.
By definition international organization labor, a person aged 10-72 years (in Russia 15-72 years old) is recognized as unemployed if, during the critical week of the survey of the population on employment problems, he simultaneously:
Didn't have a job
looking for a job
Was ready to go to work
Consequences of unemployment
Decrease in income
Mental Health Issues
Loss of qualification
Economic consequences(loss of GDP)
Deterioration of the crime situation
3.2. Accounting for the unemployed
AT modern Russia Employed population is accounted for in two ways:
According to the Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Russian Federation, on the basis of applications from the unemployed to the employment service. Since there is no incentive for a significant part of the population to register their status as unemployed, the aggregated data is incorrect. Such summary data are published in statistical collections for reference.
According to the population survey on employment problems. Previously, such a survey was conducted once a quarter, and, starting from September 2009, it was transferred to a monthly basis. The sample size for surveys is defined as 0.06% of the population aged 15-72 per quarter and 0.24% per year. Population census materials are used as the sampling frame. The annual volume of the sample array in Russia as a whole is about 260 thousand people aged 15-72 years (approximately 120 thousand households), which corresponds to 0.24% of the population of this age. About 65 thousand people aged 15-72 years (about 30 thousand households), or 0.06% of the population of this age, are examined quarterly in Russia as a whole. The data obtained as a result of such a survey are published by Rosstat.
3.3. Types of unemployment
There are the following types of unemployment:
- Voluntary- associated with the unwillingness of people to work, for example, in conditions of lower wages. Voluntary unemployment increases during an economic boom and decreases during a recession; its scope and duration are different for people of different professions, skill levels, as well as for different socio-demographic groups of the population.
- forced (waiting unemployment) - occurs when an employee can and wants to work at a given level of wages, but cannot find a job. The reason is the imbalance in the labor market due to the inflexibility of wages (due to minimum wage laws, the work of trade unions, raising wages to improve the quality of work, etc.). When the real wage is above the level corresponding to the equilibrium of supply and demand, the supply in the labor market exceeds the demand for it. The number of applicants for a limited number of jobs increases, and the likelihood of real employment decreases, which increases the unemployment rate. Varieties of involuntary unemployment:
- cyclic- caused by recurring declines in production in a country or region. It is the difference between the unemployment rate at the current moment of the economic cycle and the natural rate of unemployment. For different countries, different levels of unemployment are recognized as natural.
- seasonal- depends on fluctuations in the level economic activity during the year, typical for some sectors of the economy.
- technological- unemployment associated with the mechanization and automation of production, as a result of which part of the workforce becomes redundant or needs a higher level of qualification.
Unemployment registered- unemployed population engaged in job search and officially registered.
Unemployment marginal- Unemployment of poorly protected sections of the population (youth, women, the disabled) and the social lower classes.
Unemployment unstable- caused by temporary reasons (for example, when employees voluntarily change jobs or are fired in seasonal industries).
Unemployment structural- due to changes in the structure of demand for labor, when a structural mismatch is formed between the qualifications of the unemployed and the demand for vacant jobs. Structural unemployment is caused by a large-scale restructuring of the economy, changes in the structure of demand for consumer goods and production technology, the elimination of obsolete industries and professions, and there are 2 types structural unemployment: stimulating and destructive.
Unemployment institutional- Unemployment arising from the intervention of the state or trade unions in the establishment of wage rates that are different from those that could be formed in a natural market economy.
Unemployment frictional- the time of the employee's voluntary search for a new job that suits him to a greater extent than the previous job.
3.4 The cost of unemployment
Lost output - deviation of actual GDP from potential as a result of incomplete use of the total labor force (the higher the unemployment rate, the greater the backlog of GDP);
Reduction of income federal budget as a result of a decrease in tax revenues and a decrease in revenue from the sale of goods;
Direct losses in personal disposable income and lower living standards of the unemployed and their families;
Growing costs to society to protect workers from losses caused by unemployment: the payment of benefits, the implementation of programs to stimulate employment growth, professional retraining and employment of the unemployed, etc.
3.5. Keynesian and classical models unemployment. State measures to address unemployment.
Macroeconomics is a branch of economic science that studies the behavior of the economy as a whole in terms of ensuring the conditions for sustainable economic growth, full time resources, minimizing the level of inflation and balancing the balance of payments. Macroeconomic policy instruments - fiscal (fiscal) policy and monetary (monetary) policy.
Macroeconomic models are formalized (logical, graphical and algebraic) descriptions of various economic phenomena and processes in order to identify functional relationships between them. Any model is a simplified, abstract reflection of reality, because all the variety of specific details cannot be simultaneously taken into account when conducting research. Therefore, no macroeconomic model is absolute, it does not give the only correct answers. However, with the help of such generalized models, the complex alternative ways management of the dynamics of employment levels, inflation and other economic variables.
The term "classical economists" was introduced into scientific circulation by K. Marx, referring mainly to the English economists A. Smith and D. Ricardo. However, later Western scientists began to interpret this term much more broadly. J. Keynes, in particular, in the composition classical school included followers of D. Ricardo, i.e. those who adopted and developed further the Ricardian economic doctrine, including J. Mill, A. Marshall and A. Pigou. A number of other authors include K. Marx himself among the classics.
At present, in Western economic literature, the classical school includes the followers of A. Smith and D. Ricardo, primarily J. Say, T. Malthus, J. Mill, K. Marx, up to economists late XIX in.
There are no economic and mathematical models in the works of the classics. Their verbal characteristics of the market economy were translated into the language of mathematical models later, after the appearance of the theory of J. Keynes, in order to compare the views of the classics and Keynesians. In addition, at the present time it would be wrong to consider the classical theory only as an important stage in the history of economic thought. Many of the provisions of the classics have acquired special relevance in our days.
The main macroeconomic indicators are the volume of national production, the inflation rate and the unemployment rate.
Unemployment is an essential property market system management. The number of unemployed increases significantly during periods of crisis and decreases during periods of upswing.
Number of unemployed - important indicator, but it exists in isolation from the number of economically active population. Therefore, the main indicator of the use of labor resources is the level of unemployment in the country. The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed to the economically active population, expressed as a percentage.
In the USSR, for about six decades (the beginning of the 30s - the end of the 80s), the existence of unemployment in the country was not officially noted, and a sufficiently complete statistical record of the processes taking place in the field of employment was not kept. And only in the late 1980s and early 1990s, attention to this problem, both on the part of the state and on the part of economic science, increased significantly. At the same time, using only the number of officially registered unemployed does not give a sufficiently accurate idea of the situation on the labor market.
First, a lot depends on the very methodology for determining the unemployed. If only the number of officially registered unemployed is taken to calculate the unemployment rate, then the unemployment rate is underestimated compared to the actual one - not everyone who is out of work and who is looking for it applies to the relevant services; and the very procedure for obtaining the status of unemployed does not look simple enough, and therefore not even all of those who applied to the employment services manage to master it.
Secondly, the problem is accounting for partial unemployment or part-time employment. On the one hand, the heads of enterprises hoped for favorable changes in the situation in the future and tried to retain qualified personnel. On the other hand, people who are in similar situations, there was simply no better choice in many cases.
Determining the number of unemployed, the unemployment rate is an important task, since we are talking about one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, but the methodology, the technique of the calculus itself is not perfect enough.
Full employment is the absence of cyclical unemployment.
The neoclassical and Keynesian theories of unemployment are most widely used in Western economic science.
Classical employment theory , (D. Ricardo, J. Mill, A. Marshall and other economists of the 19th century) is based on the belief that the market has sufficient capacity to effectively coordinate all the processes taking place in the field of employment, in order to ensure the full use of the labor resources that are available in society. According to the classics, the cause of unemployment is too high wages, which gives rise to an excess supply of labor. This is the result of certain requirements of the employees themselves. The free play of market forces - demand, supply, wages - will provide the necessary coordination in the field of employment. Classical economists argued that wage rates should and would fall. The general decrease in demand for products will be expressed in a decrease in the demand for labor and other resources. If wage rates are maintained, this will immediately lead to a surplus of labor, i.e. will cause unemployment. However, not wanting to hire all workers at the original wage rates, manufacturers find it advantageous to hire these workers at more low rates wages. Demand for labor is falling, and workers who cannot get hired under the old, more high stakes, will have to agree to work at new, lower rates. If there is an excess supply of labor, then a decrease in wages should reduce it, but, at the same time, raise the demand for labor. If, however, wages do not decrease in this situation, this is prevented by the workers themselves, their trade unions, then by doing so they “voluntarily” agree to the existence of a certain number of unemployed.
Will workers be willing to accept reduced wages? According to classical economists, competition from the unemployed forces them to do so. By competing for vacant jobs, the unemployed will push wage rates down until wage rates are so low that employers find it profitable to hire all available workers. Therefore, classical economists came to the conclusion that involuntary unemployment is impossible. Anyone willing to work at a market-determined wage can easily find a job.
neoclassical concept unemployment was presented in the most consistent form by the famous English economist A. Pigou in his book The Theory of Unemployment, published in 1933.
The main provisions of A. Pigou are as follows:
a) the number of workers employed in production is inversely related to the level of wages, i.e., the lower the employment, the higher the wage;
b) existed before the First World War of 1914-1918. the balance between the level of wages and the level of employment is due to the fact that wages were established as a result of free competition among workers at a level that ensured almost full employment;
c) the strengthening of the role of trade unions after the First World War and the introduction of a system state insurance from unemployment made wages inflexible, held at too high a level, which was the reason mass unemployment;
d) to achieve full employment, a reduction in wages is necessary.
Equilibrium in the labor market in the neoclassical model is determined through the function of demand for labor and the function of its supply, where real wages act as the price of labor PL. Curve of the demand function for labor DL is decreasing because firms that demand this factor of production will be able to hire more workers at lower wages. If the level of wages will rise, then the number of attracted labor will decrease. DL = f(PL).
Labor supply in the labor market SL also depends on real wages: the higher PL, the more workers will offer their labor on the market, and, conversely, the lower the wages, the fewer of them will want to get a job. Therefore, labor supply is seen as an increasing function of real wages and the labor supply curve has a positive slope:
SL=f(PL).
Combining supply and demand graphs, we get a neoclassical model of the labor market, showing that everyone who wants to work can find a job at the current equilibrium wage rate PLE. If the supply of labor increases (a shift in the curve SL into position SQL), then this leads to a decrease in wages to РLF and equilibrium in the labor market is established at the point F.
Thus, in the neoclassical model, the market economy is able to use all labor resources, but only under the condition of wage flexibility.
Full employment in this case means that everyone who wants to sell a certain amount of labor according to the current this moment wage rate can fulfill his wish. If the salary РLK will be established above the market equilibrium level (at the request of trade unions or government intervention), then this will lead to the fact that the demand for labor will be much less than the supply of labor and a certain part of the workers will be unemployed. The number of unemployed is shown on the bar KM. Consequently, in the neoclassical model, unemployment is real, but it does not follow from the laws of the market, but arises as a result of their violation, interference in the competitive mechanism of either the state or trade unions, i.e. non-market forces. These forces do not allow wages to fall to the equilibrium level, as a result of which entrepreneurs will not be able to offer everyone who wants a job at the required wage rate.
Therefore, according to the neoclassicists, in a market economy there can only be voluntary unemployment, i.e., one that is caused by the requirements of high wages. Workers themselves choose unemployment for the sake of higher earnings. If the state regulates the level of wages, it violates the competitive market mechanism. Hence the demands of economists in this direction - in order to eliminate unemployment, it is necessary to achieve competition in the labor market, wage flexibility.
The neoclassical concept of voluntary unemployment, outlined in A. Pigou's book, became the subject of serious criticism by J. Keynes in his fundamental work "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money".
Keynesian theory of employment formed mainly in the 1930s. She associates with the name of an English economist J. M. Keynes, the most eminent researcher in the field of macroeconomics. Keynes is the founder modern theory employment. In 1936, in his work "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money," he proposed a fundamentally new explanation for unemployment. Keynesian theory of employment differs sharply from the classical approach. The hard conclusion of this theory is that under capitalism there is no mechanism to guarantee full employment. Full employment is more random than regular.
The classics did not see any serious problem in unemployment. However, the actual events that took place were less and less consistent with the classical postulates. A massive explosion of unemployment occurred in the early 1930s during the Great Depression.
In the Keynesian concept of employment, it is consistently and thoroughly proved that in a market economy, unemployment is not voluntary (in its neoclassical sense), but forced. According to Keynes, neoclassical theory is valid only within the sectoral, microeconomic level, and therefore it is not able to answer the question of what determines the actual level of employment in the economy as a whole. . Keynes showed that the volume of employment is in a certain way related to the volume of effective demand, and the presence of underemployment, i.e., unemployment, is due to the limited demand for goods.
Outlining his views, J. Keynes refutes the theory of A. Pigou and shows that unemployment is inherent in a market economy and follows from its very laws. In the Keynesian concept, the labor market can be in equilibrium not only with full employment, but also with unemployment. This is because the supply of labor , According to Keynes, it depends on the size of nominal wages, and not on its real level, as neoclassical thought. Therefore, if prices rise and real wages fall, workers do not refuse to work. The demand for labor presented in the market by entrepreneurs is a function of real wages, which changes with a change in the price level: if prices rise, workers will be able to buy less goods and services and vice versa. As a result, Keynes comes to the conclusion that the volume of employment to a greater extent depends not on workers, but on entrepreneurs, since the demand for labor is determined not by the price of labor, but by the effective demand for goods and services. If the effective demand in a society is insufficient, since it is determined primarily by the marginal propensity to consume, which falls as income rises, then employment reaches an equilibrium level at a point located below the level of full employment.
In addition, the employment of a significant part of the labor force is determined by such a component of total costs as investment. The relationship between the increase in employment and the growth of investment characterizes the employment multiplier, which is equal to the multiplier of demand. The growth of investment leads to an increase in primary employment in industries directly related to investment, which in turn has an impact on industries that produce commodities, and as a result, all this leads to an increase in demand, and hence aggregate employment, the increase of which exceeds an increase in primary employment directly related to additional investment.
According to Keynes, employment is a function of the volume of national production (income), the share of consumption and savings in NI. Therefore, to ensure full employment, it is necessary to maintain a certain proportionality between the costs of creating GNP and its volume and savings and investments.
If the cost of producing GNP is insufficient to ensure full employment, unemployment occurs in society. If they exceed the required size, inflation occurs.
With respect to "savings - investments", if S > I, then the flow of capital investment, the growth of production and supply, on the one hand, and low current demand (due to large savings) on the other, will lead to a crisis of overproduction, a fall in demand for labor and unemployment. Excess of investment over savings I > S leads to the fact that productive demand is not satisfied due to a lack of savings. The flip side of low savings is a high propensity to consume, which ultimately leads to an increase in the price level, i.e. inflation.
In the Keynesian concept, there are two important findings:
a) price flexibility for commodity and money markets, as well as wages in the labor market, is not a condition of full employment. Even if they did decline, this would not lead to a reduction in unemployment, as neoclassical thought, since when prices fall, the expectations of capital owners regarding future profits fall;
b) in order to increase the level of employment in society, active intervention of the state is necessary, since market prices are not able to maintain equilibrium at full employment. Changing taxes and budget spending, the state can influence aggregate demand and the unemployment rate.
The labor market is a specific sector of the economy. It differs from all other markets in that it is not goods that move on it, but living people. Therefore, its regulation is of great socio-economic and political importance and is a special concern of the state. However, the task of the state is not to provide everyone with a job, as this increases inflation, but to keep unemployment at a natural level, which means achieving full employment.
The consequences of reducing unemployment below natural level can be seen on the Phillips curve. A. Phillips established an inverse relationship between unemployment U and inflation P. On the graph, this dependence takes the form of a curve.
The Phillips Curve shows that when the demand for labor increases and unemployment falls, the price level in the economy rises. Unemployment limits the possibility of wage growth, and therefore the costs that affect the price level.
The Phillips Curve describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment only in a short period, where reducing unemployment is impossible without increasing inflation. In the long run, the Phillips curve transforms into a stagflation curve, which shows a simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment.
If the natural rate of unemployment in an economy is represented by a line U*U* then on the Phillips curve this level corresponds to the point AND, and inflation is P*. If the actual unemployment in the economy is above the natural rate and is U1, then inflation will drop to n1 .
If the state, in order to reduce losses in the economy, reduces unemployment first to U*, and then to U2(by increasing the money supply, expanding investment, etc.), the price level will rise to p2. The current situation will be reflected on the Phillips curve by point C.
After some time, the unions will demand wage indexation, in response to which the employers will lay off some of the workers (in order to prevent rising costs). Unemployment will return to its natural level and the Phillips curve will shift to the right, passing through the point AND".
If the state takes new steps to reduce unemployment to the level U3, then the inflation rate will be p3. On the Phillips curve combination U3-p3 dot will match D. After indexing wages and reducing employment to U* the Phillips curve will shift to the right again and pass through the point AND". Further such actions of the state will cause similar consequences: each attempt to reduce unemployment will be followed by a rise in prices and the return of unemployment to a natural rate.
By its actions, the state provokes not only an increase in prices, but also an increase in unemployment. A curve passing through points C D is the stagflation curve.
State policy in the field of employment should be based primarily on the definition of the type of unemployment. The state should fight not with any unemployment, but only with cyclical. To reduce unemployment and increase employment, the state uses the following methods:
a) improving the system of information on vacancies;
b) creation and improvement of labor exchanges;
c) development of the personnel retraining system;
d) creation of conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses;
e) development of special targeted employment programs for youth, women and workers in restructured industries.
Unemployment sometimes causes labor migration, so in the next chapter of this paper we will look at population migration, migration patterns, benefits and costs of labor movement.
4. Migration
Population migration(lat. migration- resettlement) - the movement of people from one region (country, world) to another, in some cases in large groups and over long distances. People who migrate are called migrants or, depending on the nature of the migration, emigrants, immigrants or settlers. Migration within a country is called internal, between countries - external.
According to the report of the International Organization for Migration, the number of international migrants in 2010 amounted to 214 million people or 3.1% of the world's population. If the growth of this indicator continues at the same rate, then by 2050 it will reach a value of 405 million. Part of the migration is due to such reasons as wars (emigration from Iraq and Bosnia to the USA and the UK), political conflicts (emigration from Zimbabwe to the USA) and natural disasters (migration from Montserrat to UK due to volcanic eruption). However, the main reasons for migration remain economic, namely the difference in profits that can be received for the same work in different countries peace. In addition, a factor causing migration may be a shortage of specialists in a particular profession in a particular region. For example, economically motivated migration is observed within the European Union, where barriers to movement between countries are practically eliminated. Here, high-income countries - France, Germany, Italy, Great Britain - serve as hosts for migrants from Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Romania.
Forced migration can serve as a means of social control of authoritarian regimes, while voluntary migration is a means of social adaptation and the cause of urban population growth.
4.1. Migration theoryResearch at the level of microeconomics identify factors that predetermine the adoption of individual decisions about migration (probabilistic, behavioral models have been developed) or encourage employers to hire foreign labor. Significant incentives to emigrate are the difference between the income available and expected in the country of immigration, the opportunity to find a secure job, and in the future to obtain a residence permit, and the duration of residence depends on the degree of realization of expectations.
Employers are interested in using migrant labor not only in connection with the expansion of production capabilities. Foreign labor force, by increasing the supply in the labor market in a certain skill segment of the country, facilitates the survival of enterprises that are under competitive pressure but have limited capital to invest in rationalization.
It is possible to focus on the multinational nature of production or increase the capital intensity of the enterprise in order to increase labor productivity (which is reflected in the qualification structure of demand for labor within the country).
Studies show that migration is based on differences in social and tax systems countries of origin and countries of immigration, and the pattern of immigration is determined by the skills and origin of the labor force.
According to territorial-structural models, the scale of intercountry migration flows is predetermined by a combination of such factors in the region of emigration as unemployment, population growth, poverty, economic stagnation, and in the region of immigration - a shortage of labor, rapid the economic growth and employment growth. There are also factors of a significant wage gap between the region of emigration and immigration, as well as geographical remoteness, linguistic and cultural distances.
The arguments supporting these models fit well with the neoclassical theory that migration can even out regional wage differences. Although the analysis of data, primarily for the UK, shows that migration does not play a big role in reducing regional differences in wages and unemployment. Labor markets are segmented and regulated, so that migration can only act as one of the factors in equalizing wages and unemployment. However, within the United States, internal migration is credited with an important function of leveling regional imbalances. There are different models within the EU that are similar to the US in some regions and similar to the British model in others.
Time series analysis shows what exactly determines the employment of foreign labor. Differences in sectoral development production, the ratio between capital and labor, the level of protectionism stand out as factors of influence, as well as the institutional mechanisms for recruiting labor.
Attention should be paid to studies of the welfare effect of migration in countries of emigration and immigration. It's about on the impact of labor migration on wages and income distribution in the country of immigration. In empirical studies, the effect of some reduction in the wages of auxiliary workers and apprentices is largely attributed to labor migration. This effect is pronounced in countries that use foreign labor.
In assessing the impact of labor migration on wages and overall economic productivity, a key question is whether migrant workers replace or complement the country's labor force, and if so, to what extent. In Austria, for example, the risk of lowering wages is low, and unemployment is rising due to expanding foreign employment, primarily in seasonal jobs and foreigners living here for a long time.
Emigration countries seem to benefit less than expected from the outflow of their labor force (reduction in unemployment, money transfers, a higher level of qualification of workers in case of return to their homeland, etc.).
4.2. Integration theoryTheoretically, the migration of labor takes place until the marginal productivity of labor and, thus, wages are equalized in the integration space. The prerequisite for this is the absence of barriers to migration, the mutual recognition of skill levels and the condition that cultural and linguistic differences are not decisive.
The importance of socio-cultural affiliation in migration decision-making is poorly taken into account in this theory, although, as evidenced by various migration models applied to EU citizens, traditional relations (historical dimension) are very important in determining the size and direction of migration flows.
Contrary to the assumptions of integration theory, the movement of capital and goods has become a more important tool for smoothing differences in wages and productivity than labor migration.
Before creation common market 44% of the foreign labor force came from the region that later formed the "six" of the EEC. In the "nine" EEC in 1980, about 47% of all foreign labor force came from the EEC. This share decreased in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1995, only 42% of the approximately 6.5 million foreign workers employed in the 15 EU countries came from EU regions.
The degree of overlap of labor markets in the EU (the share of citizens of the EU member states in the total number of employed) is very low and is currently about 2% (in Germany - 1.8%, France - 2.4, Great Britain - 1.6, Austria – 0.9%). The share of the entire foreign labor force in the total number of people employed in the EU in 1996 was 5%. This dynamic is in line with the intentions of the EU: the creation domestic market The EU should not be associated with a sharp increase in labor migration. The leveling of interregional differences in income and wages should be carried out first of all through the flows of capital and goods, and only then through labor migration.
4.3. Lessons from practiceIn the 1960s and early 1970s, the use of foreign labor was an important component of economic development. During this period, the number of foreigners working in the "six" EEC increased from about 1.8 million to almost 4.4 million people.
Much of the immigration was the result of targeted recruitment of labor, carried out in the countries of immigration. Recruitment (as an incentive for immigration) is important if there are no traditional migration relations between the country of emigration and the country of immigration.
The growing globalization of production in the 1970s and 1980s, as well as the growth of the tertiary sector, affected the influx of labor. From 1975 to 1995 the number of labor migrants in the founding countries of the EEC increased by about 400 thousand people. The share of employees from the G6 countries in the total number of all foreign workers has decreased from 48% to 42%.
About 6.5 million foreigners are currently employed in the 15 EU member states.
In the 1980s, a new core was formed, which amounted to economic basis employment - high-tech industries, such as the sphere of highly specialized services (central departments of concerns with departments for planning, organizing and controlling a geographically differentiated decentralized production system, financial consultants, technical consultants, etc.). In addition to the growing demand for labor in the areas high technology and production-oriented services, low-wage jobs (caregivers, courier, gardeners, dry cleaners, security services, etc.) have emerged for which there is increasing demand from the high-income workforce. In the course of eliminating the economic backwardness of countries, the supply of cheap and mobile labor has decreased. In this sense, the CEE countries have gained importance, as well as new industrial countries Asia.
The professional and qualification structure of labor migration of a certain country gives an idea of its position in the international division of labor. Recruitment strategies across Europe are increasingly being used, especially in the areas of management, finance and insurance, as well as in technical professions (engineers).
4.4. Simple Migration Models 4.4.1. Harris-Todaro ModelThe number of migrants during a fixed period t is defined as a function of: 
, where
The number of migrants from country A to country B,
- salary in country A,
- expected salary in country B,
- reaction function.
At the same time, the expected salary in a new place depends on the probability of employment p: ( - salary in country B), that is, on the situation in the labor market. If the unemployment rate in the host country rises, then expected incomes will naturally fall, and the number of migrants will also decrease.
4.4.2. Benefits vector modelAnother model of migration involves taking into account a number of expected benefits (in the form of a "benefit vector"): 
, where
M t - the number of migrants,
D - distance between countries,
X = (X 1 , ..., X n) - all factors that encourage migration,
a, b - model parameters.
In this model, as can be seen, in addition to benefits, costs are also taken into account - the distance factor, of course, has a negative impact on the number of migrants.
4.4.3. Human Capital Theory ModelMigration is an investment, certain costs in the short run must be offset by an increase in income in long term otherwise such a solution is economically meaningless. When deciding to move, a person compares the given expected income and expenses for emigration:
, where
C - direct costs (expenses for moving, acquiring new housing, moving property, etc.),
Y i B , Y i A - income in year i in countries B and A, respectively,
M is the moment of the move,
R - year of termination of employment,
r- individual norm discounting.
In the above inequality, the implicit costs are alternative income, which the employee could receive without leaving his homeland (Y A). The individual characteristics of the worker - the discount rate ρ.
Output from the model:
· Migrants are relatively young people. Investments are always the more profitable, the longer they receive a return (the larger the value (R - M) in the model).
· Migration is the more profitable, the greater the expected difference in income (Y B - Y A).
· The decision to migrate depends on the direct costs of moving.
There are a fairly large number of population and labor movement models based on a variety of assumptions about the nature of intergroup flows and designed to obtain a wide range of conclusions about population mobility.
4.5. The impact of labor movement on comparative advantage and welfare 4.5.1. Benefits of the "host" country from immigration· Growth of labor resources, GDP, total income of employees and aggregated demand in the economy, tax revenues to the state budget. Elimination of structural imbalances in the labor market.
· Ability to hide (or maintain at the same level) unemployment.
· For host countries, especially the "aging" countries of Northern and Central Europe, another aspect is important: migrants (partially or completely) compensate for the natural decline in population, they themselves, on average, as a rule, are younger than residents of the host country, and the birth rate in their families above. This means the growth of the country's labor resources not only in the short term, but also in long term, and therefore the potential output also grows.
4. 5 . 2 . Negative manifestations of immigration for the "host" countrySociocultural factors. The temporary nature of migration, the lack of assimilation with the indigenous population.
· There is a common misconception in society, which economists struggle with in vain: it is believed that the number of jobs in the economy is limited, which means that newcomers take away work from local residents.
· Mass migration creates an additional burden on the budget of the host country.
4. 5 . 3 . Benefits of labor movement for the country of emigration· The loss of part of the labor force can have a positive effect in conditions of mass unemployment. The tension in the local labor market is decreasing, unemployment is decreasing.
· Emigrants not only improve living conditions - for themselves and their families - but also ease the burden on the budget. The state no longer needs to spend money on their treatment, education of children, etc.
· Those who work and live abroad regularly send money home to their near and dear ones. As a result, there is a constant influx into the donor country Money migrant workers. Money transfers migrants play a very important role, becoming a significant addition to the national income.
4. 5 . 4 . Negative consequences for the country of emigrationThis is the "brain-drain" problem. Some of the emigrants are the most educated and gifted professionals. For developing economies, educated specialists are the most limited production resource, and therefore their value is very high.
However, this process is not irreversible. History has already shown that in countries where a noticeable economic growth begins, specialists return who have worked in Europe and America, who have received additional education and work skills, who are familiar with the latest technologies. Here, at home, they can now claim the best jobs. Therefore, for poor countries with surplus labor resources, labor migration is more of a positive than a negative phenomenon.
Conclusion
So, based on the work done by me, we can draw some conclusions, namely:
The problem of unemployment is one of the fundamental in the development and functioning of human society. Unemployment is a phenomenon characteristic of the stage of commodity production.
Unemployment is predetermined by various factors: scientific and technological progress causes the reduction, first of all, of manual workers; structural changes in the economy cause a decrease in the number of people employed in certain industries; an increase in labor productivity also leads to a decrease in the number of employees; the reduction of living labor is facilitated by the operation of the law of economy of time. In the context of worsening economic problems, some industries that pollute the environment are also closed. All these are objective factors that take place in all countries, regardless of their economic system. Unemployment often leads to migration.
Migration has a significant impact on the socio-economic and demographic development of almost all regions of Russia and foreign countries. This is one of the most complex demographic processes, since the migration behavior of the population is influenced by a complex of interethnic, political, economic and social factors. Labor force migration is the migration of the able-bodied population from one state to another for a period of more than a year, caused by economic and other reasons. Developed countries are the main direction of immigration, developing countries are emigration. State regulation international labor market is carried out on the basis of the national legislation of the host countries exporting labor, on the basis of agreements between them, as well as on the basis of ILO conventions and recommendations.
Also in my term paper, I tried to solve all the tasks set in the introduction, that is, the following were considered: the theoretical foundations of the organization and functioning of the labor market, economic and mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes, unemployment (the concept and consequences of unemployment, accounting for the unemployed, types of unemployment , costs of unemployment, classical and Keynesian models of unemployment, government measures to address unemployment), migration (migration theory, integration theory, lessons learned from practice, simple migration models (Harris-Todaro Model, Benefits Vector Model, Human Capital Theory Model)) , the impact of labor movement on comparative advantage and welfare (benefits and costs of labor movement: a simple graphical model for two economies, the benefits of the "host" country from immigration, the negative effects of immigration for the "host" country, the benefits of labor movement for the country of emigration , negative post consequences for the country of emigration).
I believe that the tasks set by me in the introduction are fully disclosed in the work; the purpose of the work has been achieved. Bibliography 1. Alexey Kireev. International economy. Part 1. - M .: " International relationships", 1999. - 416 p.
2. A. Ananiev "New processes in the employment of the population in the transition to a market economy", "Economic Issues", No. 5 - 1995
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4. I. Zaslavsky “On the benefits of the labor market”, “Economic Issues” No. 9 - 1991
5. G. Mankiw "Macroeconomics" M.: Moscow State University, 1994
6. A. G. Korovkin "Dynamics of employment and the labor market: issues of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting" - M: MAKSPress, 2001
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9. Keynes JM General theory of employment, interest and money. Moscow: Progress, 1978
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Collection output:
MODELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LABOR MARKET USING INTELLIGENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
Zhuk Marina Alekseevna
cand. economy Sciences, Associate Professor, OSU, Orenburg
Omelchenko Tatyana Valentinovna
OSU, Orenburg
At present, the processes taking place in regional markets labor are a topical subject for research due to their high social significance in the post-crisis economic space of Russia. An analysis of the definitions of the labor market showed that the labor market can be defined as an economic environment or space, as a mechanism or as a system. After spending comparative analysis various definitions, and having studied the essence and characteristics of the labor market, the following definition was formed: “The labor market is a dynamic economic system in which competing employers and employees enter into social and labor relations on mutually beneficial terms, as a result of which a certain level of employment is established and wages."
The above definition reflects the essence of the labor market, but does not take into account the fact that the labor market performs many functions, the most important of which are social and economic. The labor market should not be completely self-regulating only through its own mechanisms, since the unprotected segments of the population will not be able to consistently participate in social and labor relations. For these and other less significant reasons, the labor market should be regulated by the state.
The main subjects of the labor market are employers and their representatives, as well as employees. The state is also a subject of the labor market, which assumes the functions of regulating social and labor relations between employers and employees. The state, as an active participant in the labor market in a market economy, has the ability to create new jobs, thereby contributing to the development of the labor market and the economy as a whole.
The current state of the labor market in Russia does not meet the requirements of a growing economy, since the mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market is not temporary, but continuous.
The imbalance of supply and demand is expressed in two forms. The first implies a quantitative discrepancy between the demand and supply of labor, which is expressed in the form of unemployment or a shortage of labor resources. The second form is a discrepancy between the qualification structure of supply and demand, which is expressed in the form of a shortage of workers with the required qualifications or their excess.
For the Orenburg region, the level of registered unemployment has fluctuated around 1% for the past five years, which indicates that there is no pronounced quantitative discrepancy between supply and demand in the labor market. But this indicator fluctuates around the lower limit of the natural rate of unemployment, which borders on a situation of shortage in the labor market, leading to a slowdown in economic growth.
In conditions of shortage in the labor market, government regulatory measures should be taken to bring the structures of demand and supply in the labor market as close as possible. On the one hand, the low unemployment rate indicates that almost the entire economically active population of the region is involved in labor relations, and in this case we can talk about full employment. But on the other hand, if we analyze the standard of living of the population of the region, we can conclude that employment is full, but not effective.
To regulate the labor market at the city level in order to achieve effective employment, modern information technologies should be used, which allow not only to facilitate the automation of the collection, storage, processing and transmission of information, but also to speed up and simplify the development of measures to regulate it. Such technologies include intelligent information technologies designed to solve unstructured and semi-structured problems, taking into account weakly formalizable factors.
To solve the problems of labor market regulation, it is necessary to store information about the labor market and promptly obtain information about the dynamics of its indicators and structure. All this is required to develop a set of measures to regulate the labor market. To determine the development strategy, detailed and summary information for a certain past period of time and forecast information on a number of indicators are required.
Forecasting should be based on statistical information, the collection and processing of which requires material and time costs. In addition, forecasts are built using mathematical and statistical models, the construction of which also takes time, and changing the parameters of the models may require their adaptation to newly emerging conditions.
The disadvantage of this approach is that it is costly and does not allow to quickly obtain information in the required sections, and also that it makes it possible to only partially increase the validity of decision-making, and the final management decision can only be obtained by a person. Intelligent information systems allow you to develop solutions, like a person and accumulate not only information, but also knowledge, as well as management experience in the form of knowledge.
The basis of intelligent information systems is a knowledge base and an inference engine. The knowledge base is organized on the basis of the chosen knowledge representation model. The choice of model depends on the subject area, functional purpose intellectual system and complexity of objects.
As part of the study of the labor market and the analysis of existing models of knowledge representation, a frame model of knowledge representation was selected and developed. This model consists of two hierarchical frame structures of supply and demand.
The developed model allows you to store knowledge about the objects of the labor market, their relationships, conditions of interaction, possible situations that can happen with these objects. The frame model also makes it possible to store not just knowledge, but “deep” knowledge, which can affect not only the processes of recognizing emerging situations, but also such processes as thinking and imagination. Therefore, with the help of the developed knowledge representation model, it is possible to model not only the current state of the labor market, but also “play” various imaginary situations. This happens due to the fact that each object of the frame model has its own set of actions and a set of conditions under which they will be activated.
An important advantage of the frame model is that it stores both declarative and procedural knowledge, which makes it possible to fill the knowledge base through the attached procedures. The knowledge base, in turn, can be replenished with some situations that are encountered in the labor market and can be considered stereotypical. Such situations, when included in the database, can be activated and after checking the conditions become objects of the knowledge base.
The logical conclusion in frame models is not hard-coded, which makes it possible to avoid constant changes and refinement of systems developed on the basis of these models. The advantages of the model also include the fact that it can be implemented using standard DBMS.
The frame model originally developed was implemented using Microsoft Visual FoxPro 9.0. The created intelligent information system was efficient, but had disadvantages:
- the development of the most intelligent information system took a lot of time and required considerable effort;
- each frame, taking into account the features of its structure, was represented in the database as a separate table with many fields that are standard for a certain class of objects and the level of the frame hierarchical structure, as well as an unlimited number of rows, which increased as you worked with the system and depended on the number of relationships with others objects;
– the development of internal attached procedures was carried out in several stages, and their debugging took a lot of time;
– the implementation of external procedures for comparing the hierarchical structures of supply and demand was carried out for a long time when in large numbers frames;
– sets of slots for describing frames were fixed, and changing them required rebuilding the program with re-debugging and changes in attached procedures.
In connection with the listed shortcomings of the developed system, an attempt was made to implement it using the "1C: Enterprise" system, as one of the most frequently used in small and medium-sized enterprises and having a wide range of functionality that can be used to implement frames. The choice of this system made it possible to significantly speed up and simplify the process of implementing the frame model of knowledge representation, to improve the ways of describing procedural and declarative knowledge, to provide their visual representation, to expand functionality developed model and optimize the inference procedure.
The developed intelligent system is designed to perform the following main functions:
– collection, processing, storage, use and transmission of information on the state of the labor market at the city level;
– accumulation of knowledge about the labor market, emerging problems, experience in solving them and the effectiveness of the applied labor market regulation measures;
- providing information on the structure of supply and demand in the labor market, inconsistencies in these structures;
- development of measures to regulate the labor market, taking into account changes in both the structure of demand and supply, as well as possible trends in the development of these structures;
The developed system should be applied in the employment service, which has data on the state of the labor market, the unemployed, available vacancies, and can also replenish information by receiving it from enterprises on existing vacancies and already occupied jobs and from educational institutions on expected releases.
The proposed intellectual system can be used in developing a set of measures to regulate the labor market, in developing strategies for socio-economic development, in determining the recruitment structure in educational establishments, as well as in the development of programs for the training and retraining of unemployed citizens.
Bibliography:
1. Andreichikov, A.V. Intelligent information systems / A.V. Andreichikov, O.N. Andreichikov. - M. : Finance and statistics, 2004. - 424 p. – ISBN 5-279-02568-2.
2. Gavrilova, T.A. Knowledge bases of intelligent systems / T.A. Gavrilova, V.F. Khoroshevsky - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2001. - 384 p. – ISBN 5-272-00071-4.
3. Kapelyushnikov, R.I. Russian labor market: adaptation without restructuring / R. I. Kapelyushnikov. - M. : GU HSE, 2001. - 309 p. – ISBN 5-7598-0086-8.
4. Romanov, V.P. Intelligent information systems in the economy: tutorial/ ed. Doctor of Economics, prof. N.P. Tikhomirov. - M.: Exam, 2007. - 496 p. – ISBN 5-377-00090-0.
Labor markets in transitional economies discovered a number of unexpected phenomena that immediately attracted the attention of many researchers. Statistics and surveys have shown that firms' decisions to fire and hire workers show little or even insensitivity to changes in prices and demand. In this respect, as in many others, Russian firms are behaving surprisingly. During 1992 - 1996 Russia's GDP shrank by 38%, while unemployment in 1996 was 9.3%, and the number of officially registered unemployed was 3.4% of the total labor force. Employment in the industry decreased by 26%, which is more than in the economy as a whole, but industrial production itself decreased by almost half. Even if forced furloughs are taken into account, the fall in output and fall in employment would still be incomparable (this would increase the unemployment rate by 1.5%). The ratio of recession and employment levels changed little by the beginning of 2000, although the ratio of their gains became quite different: since 1996, GDP fell by 1%, while the unemployment rate rose by 2.4%. Surveys confirm that relatively high employment in Russia coexists with labor underutilization and labor surpluses. production capacity at enterprises.
Of course, some firms were laying off workers, but at the same time, a surprising number of firms were hiring workers despite deteriorating economic conditions. Significant inter-firm labor flows were observed even within the same industry.
In contrast to employment levels, wage rates were highly volatile. In Russia, these rates are much more responsive to changing market conditions than in developed countries. During 1992 - 1996 the average real wage rate fell by 52% in the Russian economy as a whole and by 50% in industrial production, which corresponds to a decrease in its output.
Another important fact is the high degree of agreement between workers and managers. During transition period conflicts between the two groups were rare. Only 8300 enterprises and organizations out of 2.2 million were involved in strikes in Russia in 1996, 7400 of them were educational institutions. There were about 450 strikes in coal industry and only 82 in all other industries. Most of the strikes were directed against the federal government and not against the managers (data for 1999 are similar). Not only forced layoffs of workers, but also the removal of managers were not typical. A very significant part of the managers have retained their positions since Soviet period until now.
So, the Russian labor market is characterized by low sensitivity of the level of employment to changes in prices and demand, relatively high variability of wages, the presence of a noticeable intercompany flow of labor resources even with a general deterioration in conditions, and the solidarity of workers and managers.
Collective Nature Assumption Russian enterprises and the concept of stationary levels of employment can be taken as the basis for explaining the paradoxes observed on Russian market labor. However, it is not necessary that the influence of the workers be dominant.
For a firm owned by its employees, there is a segment of stationary levels of employment. This result explains the low sensitivity of firms to changing conditions in choosing the level of employment and high flexibility, as well as strong inter-firm wage differentiation. Also, firms located on the boundaries of the segment may choose opposite employment policies. This creates inter-firm labor flows and reduces overall unemployment. It has been noted that a firm run by a socially responsible manager behaves in a similar way. Thus, the model explains a whole set of stylized facts found in many empirical studies.
Excessive employment is inefficient from a production point of view. However, with such a low level of social protection, which was characteristic of the initial period of reforms in Russia, the normal market behavior of managers - profit maximization - could cause enormous social harm. The collective nature of Russian firms is not only the result of the mentality that developed during the Soviet era, but also a natural adaptive reaction to shocks. institutional changes in the absence of an infrastructure that ensures the mobility of labor resources and their retraining, low pensions and unemployment benefits. To improve the quality of corporate governance in Russia, it is necessary, first of all, to improve the system of social protection of the population.
The theory of supply and demand developed by A. Marshall remains the main tool for the theoretical study of various economic systems today. In many cases, it makes it possible to obtain acceptable results, qualitatively consistent with the practice of economic life. However, one of the significant drawbacks of this approach is the impossibility of a rigorous study of the dynamics of economic processes. The phenomenological level of description of such phenomena does not remove the ambiguity in the interpretation of actual data, which has a very negative effect on the possibility of solving a number of economic problems. An example of such a failure is the Great Depression in the United States, which gave impetus to the development of Keynesianism. The presence of a significant number of economic schools, whose supporters sometimes hold extremely opposite views on certain economic issues, only confirms this idea.
Fundamentally different is the approach based on the use of the ideas of the theory of self-organization (synergetics). Originating as a research tool in the natural sciences, this method has been applied in many fields, including sociology, political science, and economics.
The basic provision of the above approach can be considered as fairly general ideas about the self-regulation of complex systems, and, as a rule, nonlinear differential equations are taken as the basic mathematical apparatus. Below is a model of self-organization of the labor market of a particular industry. First of all, the emphasis is on studying the stability of the considered segment of the economy. This issue is of fundamental importance, since it opens up opportunities for analyzing the effectiveness of the adoption of certain management decisions and forecasting the likely development of events in the market.
The use of synergistic ideas about the nature of the processes of self-regulation of the labor market allows us to establish the features of the evolution of the system and explore, in the framework of post-Keynesian theories, the market for its stability. It should be noted that the equilibrium state of the system may not correspond to the conditions of optimal functioning. The presence of the second unstable stationary state can lead to rather complex transient processes and significantly affect the dynamics of the level of employment. Phenomenological parameters open up possibilities for studying the influence of a number of subjective factors on macroeconomic processes, which in turn allows expanding the research base and contributing to the synthesis of the views of various economic schools and theories.
ECONOMICS AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS, 2012, volume 48, no. 2, p. 85-94
MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC MODELS
MODELING OF CYCLIC PROCESSES IN THE RUSSIAN LABOR MARKET
© 2012 E.A. Pitukhin, V.A. Gurtov, V.A. Golubenko
(Petrozavodsk)
An econometric analysis of the dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed citizens of the Russian Federation revealed the presence of two types of cyclical changes in the number: long-term and annual cycles. The modeling of the annual cyclical component was carried out using harmonic and logistic functions.
Key words: unemployment modeling, econometric analysis, cyclical processes, labor market.
1. INTRODUCTION
Cyclic changes in indicators are characteristic feature economic processes (Akaev, Sadovnichiy, 2009, p. 5). Cyclicity refers to the uneven functioning of various elements national economy, change of revolutionary and evolutionary stages of its development. For various types of economic processes are characterized as long cycles Kondratiev, as well as shorter cycles of Zhuglyar, Kuznets and Kitchin (Poletaev, Savelyeva, 2009, p. 15).
Demand and supply in the labor market also have cyclical manifestations. The most characteristic indicator of this process is the change in the number of unemployed citizens. Currently, there are two indicators that characterize unemployment in Russian Federation. The first indicator is the number of officially registered unemployed citizens, the second is the number of unemployed citizens, determined according to the ILO methodology (Labor and Employment, 2009). The paper analyzes the dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed citizens. This indicator was chosen due to the fact that the data under consideration are reliable, since their objectivity is ensured by state territorial bodies. Federal Service on labor and employment. In addition, this time series has a length and sampling frequency sufficient for analysis.
In the course of econometric analysis, such components of the time series are usually distinguished (Burke and Carey, 2005, p. 448) as trend, seasonal, and random components. In this article, these components will be analyzed in relation to the indicators of the dynamics of officially registered unemployed citizens of the Russian Federation.
Despite the large number of published works related to the significant results of economic and mathematical modeling of processes in the Russian economy (Petrov, Pospelov, 2009, pp. 492-506), not a single work has carried out a detailed econometric analysis of the dynamics of officially registered unemployed citizens of the Russian Federation and its components.
Among the publications devoted to the problems of modeling unemployment, one can single out works (Korovkin, 2001, p. 228; Bysheger, 2005, p. 28), where the number of vacancies was taken as an explanatory variable affecting the dynamics of unemployment.
The work (Bragin, Osakovsky, 2004) assessed the natural level of unemployment in Russia in 1994-2003. in the form of the difference between the economically active population and the optimal number of employees with stable inflation and the absence of the influence of the economic downturn factor (Bragin, Osakovsky, 2004, pp. 95-104).
Of the articles known to the authors, the work (Gorbacheva, Breev, Zharomsky, 2001) was devoted to econometric analysis of cyclical processes in Russian unemployment. quantitative estimates seasonal fluctuations in the number of unemployed, determined by the methodology of the ILO. To analyze and predict the dynamics of the number of unemployed, a lag regression model was used using seasonal dummy variables (Gorbacheva, Breev, Zharomsky, 2001, pp. 40-46). In this paper, accounting for cyclicity was carried out by introducing seasonal indices into the regression model. This analysis did not take into account the annual dynamics of such main factors influencing unemployment as the intensity of layoffs and employment, which in practice have an annual recurring, seasonal nature.
The choice of a logistic function to describe the dynamics of influencing factors is based on the following assumptions:
Diffusion nature of the spread of exposure in the environment;
Saturation limit due to the dissipativity of the medium;
Pronounced seasonal nature of the beginning of the impact.
2. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED CITIZENS
2.1. Data analysis. The statistics of officially registered unemployed citizens is kept with a frequency of one month (Population survey, 2010). This allows you to form a long time series for further analysis. On fig. Table 1 shows the dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed citizens of the Russian Federation in the period 1991-2009, which is subsequently used for analysis.
Of those presented in Fig. 1 data shows that during the observation period 1991-2009. it is possible to single out two time intervals (1992-2000 and 2001-2008), characterized by different long-term components (trends) of the dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed citizens.
As a rule, the parameters of the trend function are selected using conventional statistical procedures; exponential, linear, polynomial, logistic and other dependencies are used as functions. The least squares method usually allows us to weed out unacceptable ones and select suitable ones.
To isolate the long-term component of the change in the dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed, the initial data were approximated by quadratic splines using annual local minima. On fig. 1 shows the results of such an approximation. The study showed that the trends in the two considered time intervals have a pronounced parabolic character. The release of actual data from the trend component made it possible to obtain a time series containing cyclic (seasonal) and random components in the number of officially registered unemployed citizens.
On fig. 1, this row is presented in the lower part of the figure, the shape of the curve reflects the periodic structure of the considered dynamics. At the same time, a visual analysis of the initial data presented in the upper part of the graph does not allow us to conclude that there is a periodic structure in the dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed citizens.
2.2. Trend options. A more detailed analysis of trends in both time intervals (1992–2000 and 2001–2008) using the least squares method made it possible to determine the coefficients of a parabolic function that is closest to the function of approximating the dynamics of the number of unemployed by quadratic splines for annual local minima. On fig. As an example, Figure 2 shows the parabolic function of the long-term trend over the 2001-2008 interval.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -■-
Difference between initial data and approximation
Approximation of the initial data sq. splines
О Local minima of the number of OZBs of the Russian Federation by years
Rice. Fig. 1. Dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed citizens of the Russian Federation (thousand people) and the long-term (trends) and cyclical (seasonal) components identified in it (below is a graph of the difference between the initial data and approximation)
Observation dates
Rice. 2. Parabolic function of the long-term trend and the actual values of the number of officially registered unemployed citizens in the interval 2001-2008.
Finding optimal values parameters of the parabola was carried out according to eight annual local minima of the values of the number of unemployed for the period under review. The corresponding equation looks like this:
y DO \u003d a?2 + N + c, (1)
where a = -0.3; b = 30 thousand people/month; c = 930 thousand people The coefficients in equation (1) for the time interval 1994-2001. take the following values: a = -0.8, b = 60 thousand people/month; c \u003d 850 thousand people.
To isolate the cyclic component, the dynamics of the number of officially registered unemployed in the Russian Federation in the interval 2001-2008. approximated by a sinusoidal function. The parameters of its equation were obtained by the least squares method, taking into account the tangency of the sinusoid of eight annual local minima of the number of unemployed: ^ T = 294 months; ( = 101; 5 = 273.6. Other values of the parameters of the sinusoidal function were obtained by the same method without restrictions on local minima: y5(?) = A + cC) +5, where A = 912.6 thousand people; ~ = 0.03 ^ T = 212 months;
o*\ c\ o** o*\ ^ o** ^ o** o** o* o* o*
o o o o o o o o o
"Purified" Time Series - Approximating Sinusoid
Rice. 3. Actual values of the "cleaned" time series in the period 1994-2001. and approximating sinusoid
( = 100.64; 5 = 893.5. According to the classification economic cycles, both values of the period fall under the time interval of the Kuznets cycle (Poletaev and Savelyeva, 2009, p. 25).
2.3. Periodicity of the seasonal component. As shown in fig. 1, extracting the trend component from the actual data makes it possible to obtain a time series representing the cyclic (seasonal) and random components in the number of officially registered unemployed citizens, which is characterized by a periodic structure. To determine the period of this "purified" series by the least squares method, the parameters of the sinusoid describing the cyclic (seasonal) component were found.
On fig. 3 shows the actual values of the "cleaned" time series in the period 1994-2001. and an approximating sinusoid. The abscissa shows the numbers of levels of the "purified" time series with a discreteness of one month. The approximating sinusoid equation has the form:
PITUKHIN EVGENY ALEKSANDROVICH, SEMENOV ANDREY ANDREYEVICH - 2013
