2. The cause of the new world financial crisis is the bourgeois-democratic revolution in Russia. A completely similar situation is brewing now, but at a new stage in the world development of the industrial bourgeois-capitalist civilization. Prerequisites for the current global

Over the past five years since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, the totality of the problems caused by it has not lost its acuteness and topicality. If not in depth, then in scope and consequences, it can only be compared with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Having emerged in the mortgage segment of the US financial market, it quickly spread to the real sector and gained planetary proportions. In its zone were countries and regions that differ in the level of development of productive forces, social and political orientation. The crisis covered more than 80 percent of the world economy (in the years of the Great Depression - 92.4 percent). Only individual countries managed to maintain a positive, but slow growth dynamics. In terms of its qualitative characteristics, the crisis went beyond purely economic and social parameters and acquired a geopolitical projection.

If we consider the crisis from a formal point of view, as an element of the “growth-fall-growth” cycle, then we can talk about the attenuation of its descending phase. Despite, however, the passage of the most acute stage and some scattered signs of improvement, the state of the world economy and the immediate prospects for its development are still problematic. The rise in production that resumed in 2010 did not transform into a process of sustainable and dynamic growth. In the main centers of the world economy, the situation of instability and low business activity remains. There is an aggravation of social and domestic political problems.

Periodically appearing in the world press, alarming warnings about the possibility of a second wave of the crisis are not without foundation. The exit of the largest economies from the recession was largely carried out due to the unprecedented money issue. In the US, for example, the combined volume of the first and second waves of so-called quantitative easing amounted to $2.3 trillion. In September 2012, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) announced a new round of liquidity injections into the economy, under which It also provides for a monthly purchase by the Fed of Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds worth $40 billion. In the EU, in the course of two long-term refinancing operations, the European Central Bank issued 1 trillion euro loans 2 .

However, the reasons for the systemic failure in the functioning of institutions and markets were still not eliminated. The policy of stimulating business activity at the expense of budgetary resources has led to an increase in government obligations. In the United States, in particular, public debt reached 106.6 percent of GDP in 2012 and continues to grow at a faster pace. Indicators close to this level were registered in the country only in 1947 (110 percent) due to the high costs during the Second World War. The problem of the budget deficit is acute. The main risks are associated with the threat of a "fiscal cliff", the achievement of the "ceiling" of the debt and the volatility of financial markets.

Negative trends persist in other leading states of the industrial world. Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for a long time, is facing a high budget deficit and a record level of debt (235.8 percent of GDP) 3 . Particularly serious difficulties are experienced by the eurozone countries, where the epicenter of the crisis has moved. In the zone of increased risk are such countries as Greece, Portugal, Italy. The volume of public debt of these countries in relation to GDP in 2011 amounted to 160.8, 106.8 and 120.1 percent, respectively. For comparison: the criteria for economic stability, established by the Maastricht Treaty for the member countries of the eurozone, prescribe the deduction of public debt within 60 percent of GDP. According to a negative scenario, events are developing in Spain, which is essentially teetering on the verge of default.

The European Union has made significant efforts to prevent a catastrophic failure in the economy and the collapse of the eurozone. So far, however, there has not been a radical change in the situation for the better. According to the OECD, in 2012 the economies of the 17 eurozone countries will shrink by 0.1 percent, while in 2013 GDP growth will be only 0.9 percent 4 . Against the backdrop of an uncertain recovery in production, bordering on entering a recession, the problem of employment remains acute. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone at the end of 2012 is projected at 10.8 percent (10.0 percent in 2011). The most alarming figures remain in Spain (25.1 percent) and Greece (23.1 percent). These two countries also recorded the highest unemployment rates among young people (aged 15 to 24), at 52.9 and 53.2 percent, respectively.

The continued increase in the volume of derivatives (derivatives) at the level of companies and banks, which played an extremely negative role in the development of the crisis, also testifies to the persistence of inertial tendencies in the centers of capitalism. From 2010 to 2011, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the total volume of derivative contracts increased from $601 trillion to $648 trillion 6 . For comparisons: cumulative world GDP is only 70 trillion, that is, about 10 percent of this position. The volume of derivatives on the balance sheets of US banks increased, according to data Federal Service by the US Monetary Control Commission, from $165 trillion at the end of 2007 to $230.8 trillion at the end of 2011. Of these, 95 percent accounted for the five largest banks. This top five is led by JP Morgan Chase ($88 trillion). It is followed by Bank of America (38 trillion), Citigroup (32 trillion), Gold-man Sachs (30 trillion) and Wells Fargo ($5 trillion) 7 / With such volumes of concentration of derivative financial instruments, even the most insignificant fluctuations in the markets can cause an "avalanche", which is able to sweep away the protective mechanisms of the world monetary system that have been built in recent years.

Describing the current situation, the well-known American researcher Kenneth Rogoff noted that “the mistakes that caused the 2008 crisis have not been corrected. The chances of an immediate repeat of the financial crash are slightly reduced. The laws and regulations issued at the beginning of the crisis were basically patchwork to maintain the status quo. In all other respects, however, essentially nothing has changed.

Indeed, in general, we are still talking about the accumulated and unresolved issues in economically developed countries of growing sovereign debt, deepening budget deficits and global imbalances. Thus, having failed to fulfill its “cleansing mission”, the crisis took on a focal character, while maintaining the threat of local (country or regional) problems developing into a new recession and its spread to other countries and segments of the global economy.

Origins and causes of the crisis

To date, I have not reached a consolidated opinion either about the nature of the last crisis, or, according to J. Stiglitz, the “great recession” (by analogy with the Great Depression of the 1930s), or about what kind of development policy in the post-crisis period. The range of opinions remains quite wide. The existing interpretations deserve the closest attention. But often they focus on one, albeit an important component of the problem, without reflecting the complex or multidimensional nature of the changes taking place in the world. One cannot but agree with the Russian researcher A. Fursov, according to whom “crisis phenomena are most often analyzed in isolation, as a result of which the essence of the whole disappears. If we talk about the whole, then the world is not just going through a crisis, but is at a turning point, which has no analogues in history until now” 9 . The theory of cyclicity, which states that the spiral always returns to a new level, but with the same regularity, does not work in this case. exists. It's about, in fact, not about the next cycle, but about the formation of qualitatively new trends in the development of the global economy.

Discussions continue in the world economic community regarding the causes and nature of the current upheavals. Speaking, however, about the origins, it is impossible not to note the features of the development of the world economy in the pre-crisis period. In the last two or three decades of the past century, the processes of globalization of production, trade, and financial flows began to have a decisive influence on the mechanism of the economic cycle. The interdependence of national economies, the consequences of uneven development and the struggle for resources have become a source of increased volatility in world markets. Structural components, generated by disproportions in the development of individual countries, spheres and branches of production, began to occupy an increasing share in the cyclicity. The crises were becoming more and more profound and no longer fit within the boundaries of individual national economic complexes. This period, as the famous researcher of global financial crises Charles Kindleberger noted, “may be called unprecedented in terms of volatility in the prices of goods, currencies, real estate and securities, as well as in terms of the frequency and severity of financial shocks” 10 .

The multi-layered and complex nature of the problems that emerged in 2008-2009 also affected the interpretation of the origins of the crisis. Opinions vary - from explaining its causes by "lack of effective market regulation and supervision of financial institutions» 11 prior to bringing to the fore the question of the depletion of the model of the global economy that has developed over the past decades.

The most common is the opinion about the purely financial nature of the crisis. And among the reasons are the liberalization of the credit and financial sector, the deregulation of international capital flows, the underestimation of risks and the excessive reliance of banking institutions on borrowed funds in the years preceding the crisis. That is, the crisis is interpreted as a purely financial one that has arisen in the market mortgage lending USA and along the chain spread to other segments of the financial system and to the real economy.

A special commission of the US Congress to investigate the causes of the crisis of 2008-2009, created by the decision of President B. Obama, came to a practically similar conclusion. The final report was made public in January 2011 12 . The crisis, according to the authors of the report, was provoked by the following factors: failures in financial regulation, violations in the field corporate governance that led to excessive risks; excessively high household indebtedness; widespread distribution of "exotic" securities (derivatives), the growth of unregulated "shadow" banking system.

The blame was thus placed on bankers, financial regulators and politicians. Banks were taking on too much risk while regulators weren't took due steps to avoid it. Allegations have also been made against former head Fedrezer Alan Greenspan for "failing to stop the growth of 'toxic' mortgages and propagating the idea that financial institutions could well regulate themselves" 13 .

In general, among the supporters of the purely financial nature of the crisis, three main points of view can be distinguished. As part of the first cause of the crisis, the uncontrolled use by the United States of its status as a reserve currency issuing country is voiced. According to the second premise lies in the credit traps of the "consumer society". Proponents of the third point of view focus on the uncontrolled development of financial markets.

In such an interpretation, in a generalized version, the shifts that have taken place in the economy of industrial centers are reflected. Important qualitative changes have taken place here over the past decades. They are associated with the relocation of the production of standard and mass industrial, including machine-building, products to rapidly developing countries - Mexico, China, India, Brazil, etc. The structure of production in the leading economies of the world has increasingly shifted towards the service sector. In the United States, for example, the share of material industries in GDP fell from 40 percent in the early 1950s to 20 percent in the early 2000s 14 .

The share of financial markets has noticeably increased. Their growing influence was accompanied by a massive accumulation financial assets and the introduction of a number of institutional innovations that have led to an increase in the levels of debt of households, corporate and public sectors. The virtual economy has become more attractive for investment compared to real production assets. In the US, the financial sector's share of total corporate profits increased from 7.5 percent in 1983 to 40 percent in 2007 15 .

Global financial transactions with the issue of money, exchange rates and credit transactions have become several times larger than the size of the real economy. The problem was exacerbated by the massive launch of derivatives through a multi-stage chain, which, according to UNCTAD experts, are “very dubious instruments in terms of their contribution to the growth of public welfare” 16 . Securitization and other such innovations have disrupted the traditional relationship between lenders and borrowers. The financial component has acquired a self-contained value and has actually lost touch with the real economy.

Given these factors, the loss or even weakening of control over the processes in financial sector could not but lead to another collapse in the stock and credit markets. According to Alan Greenspan, under these conditions, “if securitized American low-quality loans had not turned out to be a weak link in the global financial system, then some kind of some other financial product or market" 17 .

However, by highlighting the factor of “ineffective control” when explaining the causes of the turbulence, it is overlooked that the financial component is only one of the systemic elements of the global economy, which started back in the 1990s. Its main components were deregulation and liberalization. It was the latter that were considered as the main regulator economic life in all its manifestations. In this context, the decrease in the level of control over the functioning of the financial market was, in essence, only a reflection or consequence of the flaws in the global economy model and its leading segments represented by the United States, Western Europe and Japan, which largely determined the main contours , ideological and geopolitical parameters of world development.

It is no coincidence that as the recession deepened, a broader interpretation of the anomalies that arose in the world economy emerged. To date, many authoritative representatives of political, economic and scientific circles agree that there are a number of reasons and factors for the occurrence of such large-scale distortions in the global economy. As noted by the American researchers K. Rogoff and K. Reinhart mentioned above, “serious financial crises rarely happen in isolation from other events. Rather, they are "not the triggers for the recession", but more often the mechanisms for its amplification" 18 .

The forms of manifestation of the last crisis, its duration and associated with it, in the words of Christine Logard, "shifts of tectonic platforms in the global economy" 19 give reason to believe that its origins are not initially of a financial nature. They are not, contrary to the opinion of the IMF and the World Bank (WB), only a consequence of the lack of effective market regulation and supervision of credit institutions 20 . Global disproportions have not arisen in recent years. They are associated with the prevailing trends in the evolution of the world economy, the results of its development over the past decades. Not without interest is the statement of experts from such an authoritative organization in international economic circles as the UN Economic Commission for the countries Latin America and the Caribbean. In their opinion, “the crisis is not only an expression of the weakness of financial regulation, nor the result of a moral crisis caused by greed and greed. The crisis was a reflection of the end of the development model and opens the door for discussions about further ways of socio-economic progress” 21 .

The causes of the turbulent processes that have arisen in the world economy are multifaceted and testify to the crisis of the global system as a whole. There is a complex devaluation of the structure of global governance, the fundamental ideas of the modern world order. Combined with the transition to a new phase of the technological cycle, this predetermined the scale of financial and economic failures. In addition, the preservation of the current model, which started back in the 1990s, caused an extremely unstable state of the economy in the main industrial centers in the post-crisis period as well.

Systemic aspects of the crisis

According to the totality of the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics, and above all in terms of its consequences, the crisis quickly transformed into a systemic one. He called to life or strengthened tendencies and processes that were in a latent or inhibited state. Under his influence, they acquired a clearer and more structured expression, began to exert an ever more significant influence on the formation of the world development paradigm in its economic, ideological and geopolitical content. We can single out a number of key, in our opinion, systemic aspects of the last crisis.

Formation of a new configuration of centers of economic growth. The theme of shifting the economic balance of power in the world began to occupy one of the central places in the ongoing discussions about the development of the global economy in the post-crisis period. Despite the differences in quantitative estimates of the emerging trends, many researchers adhere to the point of view of the emergence of new centers of economic growth and influence. These shifts have become one of key factors modern geo-economic process. And it's not just about China and India. Changes are taking place practically along the entire perimeter of developing countries. The share of the latter in global GDP (according to purchasing power parity) increased from 33.7 percent in 1980 to 43.4 percent in 2010. According to World Bank estimates, the outstripping trend will continue in the next five or more years 22 . The share of developing countries in world exports increased from 22 percent in 1980 to 45 percent in 2010, and in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, respectively, from 7 to 47 percent 23 .

Taking into account the current prevailing trends, it can be assumed that the shift in growth centers is not opportunistic, but long-term in nature. According to the results of many forecasts, in the next twenty years the balance of power in the world economy may change radically in favor of developing countries. According to the British branch of Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC), by 2020, the combined GDP of the seven largest emerging markets (Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Russia, Turkey) will exceed the GDP of the seven main industrial countries(USA, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Canada). If in 2000 the total GDP (PPP) of the seven industrialized countries exceeded the size of the seven developing economies more than twice, then by 2007 the gap had narrowed to 60 percent, and by the end of 2010 to 35 percent. If the current trends continue, by 2020 the gap will be reduced to zero. And by 2030, the emerging seven will overtake the seven leading industrialized states by 35 percent.

Really, international relations are currently working not only in the direction North-South, but also South-North. It was not the economically developed, but the developing countries that became the locomotive of the exit from the recession, among which Brazil, India, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea stood out (they account for about 55 percent of countries GDP emerging market) 24 . According to World Bank forecasts, from 2011 to 2025, developing economies will have an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent, while developed economies will only grow 2.325 percent. 25 . Until 2025, the growing power and influence of emerging markets will be the driving force.

Given the current trends, the forecast estimates noted above do not look unrealistic. However, as evidenced by empirical data, economic development is by no means always linear, and the actual dynamics of GDP may differ significantly from forecast indicators. So, until 1990, the question of Japan becoming the world's leading economy was actively discussed. But this did not happen, although the forecasts looked quite reasonable. In addition, one cannot ignore the fact that the growth of China and a number of other developing countries is to a certain extent influenced by the effect of a low base. The extensive model of their development also has an effect. There is still a high reserve of low-skilled labor force, which is actively involved in the production process. At the same time, the gap in the volume of per capita income, in the scale of poverty and poverty, in the levels of labor productivity and other socio-economic parameters remains quite significant. However, the current prevailing trends indicate the presence of serious shifts in the global geopolitical space.

Erosion of the unipolar world. At present, the growing economic power of China, favorable forecasts for the economic growth of India and a number of other fast-growing economies allow us to say that the world is in the stage of the formation of multipolarity and a gradual redivision of the political sphere. and economic influence. An increasing number of countries and regions are no longer mere objects of geopolitical processes, their desire to pursue their own policies is growing, often contradicting the strategy of the great powers. The qualitative difference of the current situation lies in the fact that the number of leading players in world politics has been replenished by new powers, regional groupings, international organizations that have a significant impact on world events.

The United States still remains the leading and most powerful power in the world, but the main feature of modern Another geopolitical process is the entry of China and India into the big leagues of global politics. A number of countries - Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea - also raised their status. More and more confidently declare themselves as important subjects of the world economy, such countries as Argentina, Mexico, South Africa The process of economic, social and political renewal of Brazil has noticeably accelerated, in particular. At the end of 2010, in terms of GDP (2.17 trillion dollars at PPP), it was ahead of Italy and came close to the UK (2.23) and France (2.19) 26 . Brazil is increasingly positioning itself as a "heavyweight" in the global economy and politics.

Against this background, there is a process of reducing the share of the United States in the global economy. In a number of quantitative parameters, China has already come close to the United States - like none of the American competitors in the entire 20th century. In 2008, the size of the Chinese economy (in terms of PPP) was 42.8 percent of the American one, and in 2010 it was 69.2 percent 27 . If China's economic growth continues, then by 2020 the economies will equalize (in terms of GDP), and by 2030 China will be ahead by about 20 percent. Such a scenario is highly probable and widely accepted. The share of other rising countries is also growing. So, India's GDP (PPP) in 2001was at the level of 51 percent of Japan's GDP, and in 2010 - 97 percent 28 .

The alignment of forces in the world economy is beginning to change, and this process will apparently continue. Prior to the onset of the crisis, the role of the United States as the center for coordinating global macroeconomic policy was practically not subjected to serious criticism.

However, the recession that began in December 2007 and the ongoing instability in the country weakened the US economy and called into question the US ability to continue to play the role of financial and economic leader. The United States is gradually ceasing to be the locomotive of the world economy.

Notably, in 2008, the US National Intelligence Council acknowledged for the first time that America's global power was indeed on a downward trajectory. In one of its periodic futuristic reports, "Global Trends 2025," the council cited the "unprecedented in world history shift of world wealth and economic power from West to East" as a major factor in the decline of "the relative strength of the United States even in the military sphere. According to the council, "in terms of the size, speed and direction of the flow, the current transfer of wealth and economic influence from West to East is without precedent in modern history" 29 .

In a situation of weakening the prevailing positions of the West, the process of formation of new economic and political structures - BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Union of South American Nations (Unasur), etc. - has intensified, with their desire to reach the global level of development and decision making. As the practice of recent years has shown, today it is virtually impossible to resolve global issues unilaterally. New collective forums turned out to be in demand. One of them was the G20, which arose in the extreme conditions of the crisis. Concerns that the global economy is on brink of catastrophe, have accelerated the transition from the G7 to the G20 format, which includes the world's largest economies and the most important emerging national markets.

Such an extension economic coordination represents the recognition of a new group of global economic players. The creation of the "Group of Twenty" was an indirect confirmation of the fact that Western countries are not able to cope with the world economic problems alone. In essence, this became a reflection of the trend towards a rebalancing of forces in the world and its movement towards multipolarity.

Crisis of ideological concepts. One of the main consequences of the crisis was the growing doubt, not only in expert circles, but also in government circles, about the effectiveness of economic liberalism. In a number of cases, the question is raised of replacing the ideological concepts of the 20th century and the previously dominant orthodox theories and points of view regarding the conduct of macroeconomic policy 30 . The global economic crisis has undermined faith in the infallibility of markets.

We can talk about the weakening of the positions of supporters of the idea of ​​the superiority of liberal capitalism and limiting the role of the state. The crisis has revealed systemic weaknesses inherent in the functioning of unregulated global markets. Thus, in the face of the threat of depression, Washington and other economically developed states went to the nationalization of the failed backbone financial companies and banks, to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. The concept of monetarism was called into question, which is based on the position that a priori markets are competitive and market system able to automatically reach macroeconomic equilibrium. At the height of the crisis, almost all the leading industrialized countries were forced to switch to "manual" management. Without significant government injections of funds into the economy and to support bankrupt financial institutions, most countries would be doomed to a financial collapse.

Under the influence of the crisis, the pendulum shifted from monetarism to the Keynesian concept of the role of the state in the formation and implementation of economic policy. According to P. Krugman, "the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, who analyzed the essence of the Great Depression, are now more significant than ever" 31 . In professional and public discussions, arguments in favor of recognizing specific functions for the state, requiring not only the establishment of the rules of the game in the market and control over their observance, but also direct work in the economic field, began to sound more and more convincing. More precisely, in those areas that private capital avoids due to their low profitability, high risks and long payback periods.

Aggravation of structural problems of the global financial system. Under the influence of the crisis, the issue of reforming the global financial architecture has reached a new level. The problem of the weakening of the positions of the US dollar has acquired the greatest urgency. The slow and unstable recovery of the US economy, the remaining budget A hefty deficit and growing public debt predetermined the growth of distrust in the ability of the dollar to serve as the world's reserve currency. It should be noted that the idea of ​​introducing a global means of payment that is not related to the national monetary unit any country, has been discussed for more than a dozen years. At one time, J. M. Keynes at the Bretton Woods Conference (1944) defended the idea of ​​a world central bank with its own currency (bancor).

Under the influence of the crisis, the idea of ​​improving the current monetary system acquired concrete outlines in the form of proposals put forward. If until recently this issue was mainly academic in nature, today the relevant conclusions and recommendations are already being formulated within the framework of international organizations. The UNCTAD report for 2009 concludes that "the current world monetary system is inefficient, hinders the development of the world economy and is one of the main causes of the financial and economic crisis" 32 . This white paper from the multinational institution also emphasizes that the role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency must be re-evaluated. According to the organization's specialists, the new monetary system should not be based on any one or even several national currencies. As an alternative to the dollar, it is proposed to use special drawing rights (SDRs) issued by the IMF (created in 1969).

A similar conclusion was reached by the UN expert commission on the reform of the international monetary and financial system under the leadership of J. Stiglitz. The Commission spoke in favor of adopting a truly global reserve currency, "whose credibility and stability will not depend on the unpredictability of the economy and politics of a single country" 33 . These proposals were further developed in the ECOSOC report. According to UN experts, since the US dollar is not a stable store of value, one of the requirements for a reserve currency is “it is necessary to develop a new system that should be based on the issuance of international liquid funds, and not on the use of national -National currencies” 34 .

Critical statements about the existing monetary system, as well as proposals put forward to reduce the international status of the dollar, have quite real grounds, related, in particular, to the complexity of the financial and economic problems facing the United States. The dollar is not as strong now as it used to be. However, the question is far from being so clear-cut. Calls for a replacement American currency seem elusive, especially in the short term. Benjamin Cohen, a professor at the University of California, explains, in particular, the current situation by the lack of a real alternative to the dollar at the moment. To paraphrase famous saying W. Churchill about democracy, B. Cohen noted that "the dollar may turn out to be the worst solution, except for all the others" 35 .

At the same time, declarations about the change in the status of the dollar are beginning to be supplemented by concrete practical steps aimed at at least partial neutralization of the uncontrolled behavior of the dollar in the world currency markets. The desire to reduce dependence on the euro and the dollar received a real embodiment at the BRICS summit in Delhi (March 28-29, 2012). Two important documents were signed there: a general agreement on the provision of loans in national currencies and a multilateral agreement on the confirmation of letters of credit within the framework of the BRICS interbank cooperation mechanism (the obligation to provide priority servicing of transactions of banks in these countries). This is the first step towards the transition to national currencies in mutual settlements. The agreement provides for the creation of basic mechanisms for the implementation of settlements and financing of projects in national currencies between the authorized banks of the BRICS participants.

In addition, the BRICS participants expressed their readiness to consider India's proposal to establish a South-South Development Bank to finance infrastructure and innovation projects in developing countries. Announcing the possibility of creating a supranational development institution and mechanism mutual lending, the leaders of the BRICS countries thus expressed their readiness to build their own structure capable of accumulating investment resources and directing them to those projects that are primarily beneficial to the bloc itself.

Under the influence of the crisis, the problem of de-dollarization has acquired a rather high urgency. The need for the formation of a world currency unit has an objective character. The very logic of the globalization of economic activity does not correspond to the functioning of national currencies in the role of world money and ultimately undermines the foundations of such functioning. However, the ongoing debate over alternatives to the US dollar, including an increase in the role of the SDR, has so far not led to any meaningful results. The process of putting forward other alternative currencies will probably take a relatively long period of time. With significant differences in the interests of individual states (as well as large differences between the views of theoretical economists), achieving the goals of forming an international monetary system that would be based on the use of a universal supranational currency unit is, apparently, a targeted strategic setting for a long-term historical perspective. The most probable scenario seems to be the gradual decrease in the role of the dollar in world reserves and external settlements as the share of the USA in the world economy decreases. According to World Bank forecasts, the dollar will cease to be the main world currency by 2025. The WB report "Global Development Horizons 2011" notes that during this period a new multicurrency system may emerge: the US dollar will lose its dominance, the euro and yuan will equal its status 36 . This scenario is supported by the likelihood that the United States, the Eurozone countries and China will become the three main poles of economic growth by that time.

Under the influence of the crisis, the accents are also changing in the policy of international financial institutions, which are trying to adapt their activities to new imperatives.

In particular, if in the recent past the capital controls introduced by some countries met with a strong negative reaction from the IMF, the crisis forced us to correct this established point of view. Ras-tet understanding that open market capital, combined with an unregulated financial sector, is a ticking time bomb. The collective work “Capital Inflows: The Role of Control”, published in 2010 by a group of IMF staff, recognizes the use of restrictive practices in relation to uncontrolled flows of foreign capital as a full-fledged anti-crisis policy tool that can strengthen the economic stability of developing countries. Among the logical measures, the authors of the report name taxes on financial transactions and on short-term foreign loans, reserving interest on loans in foreign currency, and requirements for the minimum allowable investment period 37 .

This opinion was recognized as the official point of view of the foundation (with certain reservations). The report of the Board of Directors of the IMF (December 2012) consolidates the new vision of the fund regarding the regulation of cross-border capital flows: “Full liberalization of financial flows cannot be considered a universal goal for all countries at all times. Temporary restrictions may be reasonable and useful during economic shocks, as well as when other means of monetary policy have been exhausted.” According to the document, “under certain conditions, measures designed to restrict capital flows can be useful and expedient” 38 .

The IMF's new approach is, in fact, a recognition of changing realities, including the growing weight of emerging market countries most vulnerable to speculative capital flows. The stated principles directly contradict the key postulates of the Washington Consensus, which until recently dominated the global financial sector.

Towards "Retooling World Development"

Thus, speaking about the nature and characteristics of the crisis, we can single out the following. First, the events of 2008-2009 testify, in essence, to the crisis of the global economy model represented by the current industrial centers. This is primarily about the United States, which until recently acted as the standard of the market economy, the leader of technological achievements and innovations, and, no less important, the source of ideas and concepts about the ways and forms of development of the world economy and the world order as a whole. This does not yet mean a cardinal undermining of the dominant position of the United States. Nevertheless, it is evidence of the weakening of the Western-centric world and the emergence on the world stage of new players on a global scale and the development of the post-American world. According to, for example, the well-known American scientist, author of the book "The End of History and the Last Man" F. Fukuyama and President of the Center for Global Development N. Birdsall, "the American version of capitalism, if it has not lost its reputation, then at least it is no longer dominant. The West, and especially the US, will no longer be seen as the only center of innovative socio-political thought. And when it comes to international organizations, the voices and ideas of the United States and Europe are less and less dominant.” 39 .

Secondly, the causes of the global recession are not limited to economics alone. The crisis is not, in the final analysis, purely economic. He has more common ground- the degradation of the old and the formation of a new system of world order, which is accompanied by an exacerbation of anomalous phenomena in the real and financial sectors of the economy. This resulted in a deep and multilateral structural crisis that affected not only the economy, but also political, ideological and other supporting structures. modern world.

Thirdly, the urgency of the issue of entering a new level of interaction within the global economy has increased. The imperatives of sustainable development predetermine the need to create conditions and prerequisites for the formation of mutually beneficial and systemic ties between all groups of countries and regions. The crisis highlighted the growing importance of emerging markets. In this context, taking into account their interests and special needs, according to the ex-president of the World Bank R. Zoellick, “is no longer charity and solidarity, but a matter of self-interest of industrial states” 40 .

Discussions about the prospects and principles of building a global economy, taking into account the multipolar reality, remain relevant to this day, and the process of convergence of positions is still far from being completed, as it seems. Despite, however, the differences in approaches, the general idea prevails that it is necessary to come up with new principles of the world order that most adequately meet modern realities. According to F. Fukuyama, under the influence of the crisis "not only the largest Wall Street companies collapsed, but a certain set of ideas about capitalism collapsed" 41 .

In the context of continuing uncertainty and the clash of opposing tendencies, reaching a new equilibrium state will require more than simply adjusting national development strategies. Fundamental issues were put on the agenda - the development of new approaches to the formation of institutions and mechanisms at the global level that are adequate to the needs of sustainable socio-economic progress, taking into account such problems as environmental conservation, energy security, overcoming social inequality, and other pressing issues of our time. UN experts define this process as "re-equipment" of world development, that is, "implementation of a fundamental reform of the mechanisms for managing the global economy and the development of a new paradigm of sustainable growth" 42 .

There are different ideas about the role of the state in the conditions of market development of the economy. There is a point of view about the minimum possible state intervention in economic processes. Market mechanisms regulate all trends in the development of the economy. This is seen as a positive role of the market, and it is believed that the state, by its intervention, can only violate its regulatory processes.

But there is another point of view. The state cannot be in absolute isolation from the economy, being objectively one of the elements of the country's economic system. And the question lies not so much in the problem of interference, but in the nature and form of the state's participation in economic life, in the functions of the state that contribute to the sustainable and anti-crisis development of the economy. At the same time, the participation of the state is determined by the concrete reality of the processes of economic development, the size, scale, features, and the state of the economy.

The participation of the state in the economic life of the country is manifested mainly in its function of regulation, which characterizes one of the main functions of management. But regulation is not the full management of all its functions, it is the provision and maintenance of certain conditions for economic development, which are carried out taking into account market mechanisms, but do not deny their actions. On the contrary, the regulatory role of the state can be expressed in supporting the operation of market mechanisms.

Based on this, it can be stated that there is an objective possibility and necessity for state regulation of the processes of anti-crisis development of the economy.

The possibility is expressed in the fact that the organs government controlled their legislative activities create a legal field for the functioning of the economy. In addition, the state has large economic resources, which, if necessary, can be used to support the banking system or individual economic entities.

The need for state regulation is manifested in the need to maintain the potential for economic development in the context of escalating crisis situations. The state must prevent the destruction of the economic system. This is its purpose and role.

The regulatory activity of the state has certain boundaries and is manifested in the following factors

• 1. Motivating the development of innovative transformation programs aimed at positive changes in economic development trends. These can be transformations in the field of personnel management, forms of organization and conditions of competition, in the assessment of the most important lifestyle factors, in the sphere of material consumption. Such transformations cannot but affect the organization of production and its financial activity, on the connection between industry and banks, on the relationship between money, credit and accumulation. This is far from complete list problems that contain the regulatory activities of the state to motivate the development of innovations.
• 2. Determining the conditions for the use and dissemination of innovations. After all, innovations can be not only useful, but also useless, and also premature, when the conditions for them at the micro or macro level have not yet matured, when organizations are not yet ready for their perception. Therefore, the question of the factors that determine the perception and dissemination of innovations in the conditions of the danger of a crisis is very important.
• 3. Definition of differences between local and global innovative transformations. A distinction should be made between incremental innovations within an existing innovation system and the transformations that drive its transformation. The new can be superimposed on the old, it is possible to make a transition from one method of regulation to another in the process of generational change, and this applies not only to personnel management, but also to the use of buildings, structures, and equipment.
• 4. Establishing system compatibility of simultaneous transformations. After all, the ongoing transformations may either not lead to the goal, or cause unpredictable consequences. Therefore, in anti-crisis management, it is necessary to assess how consistent and effective the transformations will be in relation to the goals of socio-economic development, how situations of disequilibrium in microeconomics are resolved, what determines the combination of partial compromises or new institutions, how they affect the regulatory system as a whole, whether they are compatible with each other mechanisms for the distribution of capital, labor, money, loans.
• 5. The state is also carrying out organizational and structural transformations, which are manifested in the strengthening of the administrative mechanism of anti-crisis management. The direct contact of the population with the state occurs when public services are provided to the population. For most citizens, this is the only opportunity for direct contact with the state. The population judges the effectiveness of crisis management by the extent to which its consequences are reflected in their daily lives.

When carrying out socio-economic transformations, there is often a desire to transfer to the country the principles of economic development that are common in completely different geographical and historical boundaries. Whereas there are well-known examples of the practice of socio-economic development, indicating that the systems of functioning of the economy differ in time and space. An example is the various options for economic development in Germany, the USA, Sweden, France, and Japan.

The market economy is not an end in itself, but a means of economic development. Therefore, the efforts of the state should be focused on finding ways to maximize the use of the existing scientific, technical and production potential, the preservation and development of human capital, and the provision of broad social support for all socio-economic transformations.

In accordance with this, the state should pursue an active policy of industrial and social development countries. Particular attention should be paid to the problem of forming the composition of the necessary institutions, without which the market economy cannot function normally. Compliance with this provision is very important for Russia. The market is seen as a self-regulating economic system. But this does not mean that market mechanisms are absolutely independent of the state, which should determine the conditions for their effectiveness, help to clean up from corruption and mafia formations.

It is very interesting and significant that in many capitalist countries the main factors that enabled mass production and consumption after the Second World War are now working in the opposite direction - exacerbating the structural crisis. This is especially noticeable in many European countries.

Unraveling the mechanism for implementing development and subsequent decline is one of the most urgent tasks today. The works of many prominent scientists of the world are devoted to it. And for Russia, understanding this phenomenon, as well as the whole modern theory regulation of economic development, is of enduring importance.

The main problem is the interaction between the government and the market. This is not a question of whether or not the state should intervene in the affairs of the economy. World experience confirms that the market of competing sellers is by far the best way effective organization production and distribution of goods and services. However, the market cannot develop in a vacuum; it needs a legal and regulatory framework.

It is the state that forms such a basis for development, protecting and protecting property rights, creating legal and other regulatory systems, promoting effective entrepreneurial activity of citizens and preserving the environment. The market is diverse in its typological features and forms. The state takes this into account, using various approaches and methods for regulation.

The activity of the state should not necessarily be expressed only in the form of regulation of private activity, take the form of financial support or transfers of goods and services. Other manifestations of his activity are possible.

The relationship between the state and the market manifests itself in four aspects: human development, domestic economy, international economics and macro economic policy. These areas of activity are closely interrelated. If the domestic economy is not excessively skewed, it contributes to the formation of human capital. At the same time, education makes the domestic economy more productive because trained professionals enhance the ability to absorb new technologies in production.

A stable macroeconomy influences the price system and reduces the pain of inflation. The effectiveness of microeconomics determines the ability to keep inflation low. Enterprises have less need for subsidies that exacerbate the public sector deficit.

The relationships between these aspects should be sufficiently reliable and consistent. This is one of the most important problems of state regulation of market relations in the economy.

In the processes of economic development, fundamental changes must occur both in the duties of the state, and in the duties of both the enterprise and the citizen. In market conditions, enterprises and organizations themselves ensure the efficiency and profitability of production. People themselves are responsible for finding work and realizing their potential. The state is called upon to monitor the relationship between the scale and speed of transformations and the emergence of dangerous trends that threaten the social stability and security of the country.

When a crisis occurs, the way out of it, and then the path of economic growth, is determined not by the power and sovereignty of the state, but by its ability to encourage transformations that meet changing needs and conditions. A crisis always leads to a revision of outdated ideas. It is important to discern in it the sprouts of the new, around which changes in the economic and social space should take place.

This function of the state reflects the democratic foundations of power, which is interested in the socially oriented nature of transformations and is able to implement policies in the interests of society as a whole, and not of any groups, clans and elites. Power should be a kind of effectively operating mechanism for the development of the economy and society, ensuring the activities of administrations in accordance with the will of the voters, protecting society from the monopolization of power. This status of power largely depends on the presence of state and public control over the actions of power.

To implement such control, a number of conditions must be met. First of all, this is the development of the legislative framework and effective mechanisms for the implementation of all and all laws. In a society in which a state-legal system has not been created that guarantees the prevention of destructive conflicts by the force of law, the shadow economy is growing. The people employed in it, as you know, do not inform the statistical authorities about their economic turnover. Therefore, a direct, statistically complete and reliable estimate of the scale shadow economy impossible. This affects the efficiency of economic management.

An important condition for state regulation of economic development is the formation of mechanisms that ensure the resolution of social contradictions, the maintenance of economic security, political stability and orientation towards the legal protection of the individual, the socialization of economic activity.

Any change strategy should include a prior assessment social consequences decisions, their adjustment and a system of measures to mitigate and compensate for negative consequences. All this necessitates a new approach to the management of socio-economic processes, which takes into account the uncertainty of the results of economic decisions, as well as risk factors.

The use of the concept of risk in the regulatory activities of the state involves the prediction of possible critical situations, the assessment of probable losses for the population with the identification of their qualitative and quantitative nature, depending on the scale and reality of their compensation.

The state itself is interested in the development and implementation of such a concept. It has huge highly liquid assets at its disposal. tangible assets. As an owner, the state should be extremely interested in the expanded reproduction of its industrial and financial capital. Increasing profitability state property directly depends on the management of this property.

The state implements its administrative functions in several areas.

First, these are enterprises of federal subordination.

According to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Civil Code of the Russian Federation), federal property is transferred to enterprises on the basis of the right of economic management of business, to institutions - on the basis of the right of operational management. This is necessary to control the use of state property, assess the effectiveness of the functioning of enterprises, in relation to institutions - to assess the purpose of their activities.

The state monitors the financial condition and determines the prospects for the development of enterprises and organizations, ways and forms of restructuring production, if necessary, its diversification, and determines strategic directions for development.

Secondly, these are enterprises with state share participation in the authorized capital. These enterprises are also objects of state influence. It is carried out by including representatives of the state in the management bodies of these enterprises. At the same time, it should be noted that officials do not always defend the interests of the state in them, although they receive wages from it. Therefore, in the conditions of a gap between the incomes of state representatives and company managers, it is possible for civil servants to become materially dependent on managers and vote at a general meeting of shareholders and on the board of directors in their interests.

Third, the state has real estate. This is the golden fund of state property, which is always valuable and must constantly function effectively. One of the directions in this area of ​​state activity is the sale of real estate to replenish the state budget.

Fourthly, the activities of the state are closely related land relations. The issue of land is not only a matter of ensuring a stable income for the state budget, but also of preserving Russia as a stable independent geopolitical unit. Its solution to a large extent depends on whether the citizens of the country will be aware of their involvement in a single social whole, not only in the state-political aspect, but, more importantly, as a single territorial, economic, cultural-historical and spiritual-value space. For effective participation in economic life, a society must be the owner of those resources on which the life of all its members is based - land, water and other natural resources, including minerals, airspace and landscape and recreational areas.

Finally, in the field of state regulation are property relations in the regions where the interests of the employee, enterprise and the state are realized. In practice, federal enterprises are often transferred into the ownership of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to pay off the state's debt to their budgets. After all, an enterprise is a property that has a certain value. However, it should be understood that the enterprise is the main structure-forming element of the economy. In the process of its functioning, labor, material and financial resources are combined, it is a source of satisfaction of society's needs for goods and services and a place of application of labor and efforts of the majority of the country's able-bodied population. This circumstance plays a decisive role in the state regulation of socio-economic development.

All acts of state regulation of economic development contain two questions: why does the state do it and how does it do it?

The issue of the first question has already been discussed above. The answer to the second question is usually associated with regulatory and legislative activities, financial regulation, activities in the sphere of production and redistribution of income.

The normative-legislative activity of the state finds expression mainly in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, which is rightly called the "economic construction". This figurative expression very accurately and succinctly characterizes the significance of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation for regulating the country's economy. Its norms in accordance with Part 1 of Art. 76 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation have direct effect on the entire territory of the Russian Federation.

Competition as a necessary element of a market economy implies not only a certain dynamism of economic development, but also the possibility of stagnation. Legal acts regulating the restriction of competition and commonly referred to as antimonopoly law occupy, along with legal acts dedicated to combating unfair competition, a significant place in anti-crisis legislation.

Dynamically developing relations of participants civil circulation inevitably push to improve domestic legislation. the federal law dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ "On insolvency (bankruptcy)" takes into account the accumulated negative experience of bankruptcy procedures and builds a system of "checks and balances" for creditors' property claims, which includes:

• - a more complicated procedure for initiating bankruptcy cases and establishing the amount of creditors' claims in an arbitration court;
• – a procedure for selecting an arbitration manager, in which creditors do not choose a specific person, but only determine professional requirements, which should facilitate the appointment of an administrator who is initially independent of creditors;
• - clear regulation of actions with the debtor's property;
• - granting the owner-debtor rights that enable them to actively participate in bankruptcy proceedings and, if necessary, protect their legitimate interests.

This Law sets out in sufficient detail the procedure for satisfying by the owner or founder of all the claims of creditors recorded in the register, or providing the debtor with funds in the required amount. It is important that, in accordance with the Law, the role of the owner in bankruptcy proceedings is changing: instead of a passive contemplative, he becomes an active participant in the procedure, playing the role of an effective counterbalance in the event of unfounded claims of creditors to the debtor's property.

At the same time, the Law does not solve all the problems associated with the activities of enterprises, since almost each of them is a complex socio-economic and technical system that integrates a variety of resources and factors. The features of an enterprise or organization are not limited to its presentation either as a property complex, or as a legal entity, or as a commodity producer or social unit of society. Each of these views reflects only one of the aspects of the enterprise, but does not reflect it as a whole.

In this regard, the diverse activities of enterprises are currently regulated by many regulatory legal acts, such as the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, the Labor Code of the Russian Federation, the Federal Law of December 26, 2005 No. 208-FZ "On Joint Stock Companies", the Law of the Russian Federation of February 7, 1992 No. 2300-1 "On Protection of Consumer Rights", the already mentioned Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)", etc.

However, each of them focuses on one of the aspects of activity and does not fully take into account the rest. At the same time, each of the regulations allows for a certain variability in the choice of managerial and organizational decisions, but the formally legal choice of combinations of these options sometimes creates opportunities for such dishonest actions as seizure of property through bankruptcy, deception of partners, violations of the rights of employees and shareholders. Under these conditions, none systemic problem enterprises cannot be solved by amending each of the acts separately.

In times of crisis, the state regulation in the field of social values. The importance of the regulatory activities of the state stems from the objective need to maintain economic efficiency and justice in extreme situations, to provide consumers with the necessary and reliable information in connection with the occurrence of circumstances dangerous to human health and life. Therefore, the state is tightening the regime of control over compliance with regulatory legal acts regulating, for example, the production and sale of alcoholic beverages, food, medicines, and complex electrical household appliances.

The role of the state in regulating such aspects of social life as employment, labor relations, and household development is exceptionally great. It is carried out with the help of a wide arsenal of legislative and administrative-legal measures, price and tariff policies, taxes, social transfers, and environmental regulations.

An analysis of economic development trends over the past years shows that a way out of the crisis and its successful development are impossible without comprehensive humanization, i.e. a decisive turn to the needs and requirements of a person, the development of his abilities and creative potential. The normative-legal activity of the state should contribute as much as possible to the combination of social incentives for the development of social production with its natural purpose - to serve the needs of people.

One of the types of state regulation of economic development is financial regulation, which covers several specialized areas:

- public finance is a specific area in which federal, regional and local authorities and their representatives, as well as public organizations, in the course of their activities, operate with large amounts coming from various sources, distributing them in accordance with accepted budgeting procedures. These bodies have the right to issue certain securities, involving investors in socially significant programs.

At the same time, the goals of public organizations differ from the goals of private ones. commercial organizations. They are usually focused on solving certain socio-political problems, rather than making a profit;

• - institutional finance plays a special role and deals with huge money, which is explained by the presence in the economy of any country of banks, stock exchanges, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds and other types of financial institutions. They stimulate savings, accumulate money into funds sufficient for investment, lend, insure, guarantee, in a word, provide specific financial services;
• – international finance is a field of finance that deals with problems that arise as soon as cash flows cross national borders: currency conversion, features of commercial and tax legislation, taxation of foreign citizens, balance foreign trade, differences in price structure, etc.;
• - analysis of financial instruments and investments - an area that develops and improves the methods of financial analysis necessary to assess the risk and profitability when investing money in stocks, bonds and other securities, as well as when conducting certain financial transactions in conditions of incomplete or inaccurate information;
• – financial management- a specific activity related to the study of financial problems, the search for sources of cheap funds and opportunities for the profitable use of money, and the management of financial flows.

In a generalized view, financial regulation is a function of managing the totality of funds at the disposal of a household, enterprise or state, as well as sources of income, items of expenditure, the order of their formation and use. The country accumulates financial resources budget system, which ensures their redistribution in accordance with the accepted criteria and conditions.

Budget policy must take into account a number of specific factors, and above all the danger of economic and financial crises. It cannot be carried out according to typical scenarios of a market economy, i.e. as a typical case characteristic of a developed market economy. Its tasks and goals reflect the characteristics of the period of development experienced, namely:

• the use of budgetary policy as a means of realizing the common tasks and goals of economic reforms;
• ensuring manageability of economic processes and the economy as a whole in a crisis;
• resolution or mitigation of acute social contradictions arising in crisis situations;
• development of new relations of budgetary federalism.

Budget policy to a certain extent implements and common goals that face any budget system. This is the concentration and centralization of financial resources, the impact on economic growth and employment, ensuring the economic and political functions of the state.

The depth and duration of the crisis in the country can be generated, firstly, by miscalculations in the choice of the system and mechanisms of urgent reforms; secondly, the lack of a clear target orientation and, thirdly, ignoring the world experience in economic regulation.

During the execution of the budget, programs that the state is obliged to finance often undergo the most significant reductions. The consequence of this is a decrease in the level of wages and delays in their payment, the decline of health care and education, and other vital sectors.

The government covers the budget deficit through operations with securities and obtaining foreign loans. In the regions, the tension of the financial situation is reduced through the sale of real estate, construction in progress, blocks of shares, and long-term lease rights for land plots. But these resources are finite. Renewable resources are needed, i.e. production income. This can be achieved in our conditions only by stimulating accumulations.

The situation with accumulation in our country is explained, firstly, by the lack of clear guidelines for investing funds and, secondly, by the poor performance of the mechanism for lending to the development of the economy.

The Swedish economist Knut Wixell, studying the problems of economic growth, came to the conclusion that the accumulation of capital, or investment, is a function of the ratio of the real and natural rates of interest. The first is the actual rate of interest, a simple thing. This is, in fact, the price of money borrowed, or the interest rate for a loan. The natural rate of interest is a more complicated thing. It is understood as the "anticipated profit as a result of the use of the loan", or, in other words, the expected rate of return on newly created capital. This norm is not real, it is just the expectation of the entrepreneur to receive a certain stream of income in the future.

K. Wicksell expressed the idea, later confirmed by numerous operations to regulate ups and downs in the development of the economy by the interest rate of the central bank of any country - capital accumulation occurs at the moment when the natural rate of interest, i.e. expected performance real capital, higher than the loan fee. When the ratio changes in favor of the actual rate, the accumulation of real capital stops.

Economic growth is always associated with the accumulation of real capital. In order for capital to accumulate, there must be a balanced ratio of the real and natural rates of interest. This is what needs to be managed, and it is also important because money in our market is quite expensive.

The high cost of a loan Russian market due to the lack of commercial banks sufficient assets to conduct vigorous lending activities. This problem can be solved by strengthening the capital base of insurance and pension savings citizens and net capital - papers for the ownership of land, subsoil, real estate, shares of companies, etc. But in our country, neither citizens nor the state yet possess capital sufficient to saturate these institutions with it. The ability of banks to accept as collateral papers confirming ownership of housing, land, and mineral resources is also limited.

Therefore, one of the important tasks of the state is to help ensure that banks provide a wide range of high quality services, everywhere and on affordable prices. In recent years, domestic banks have become more than ever more like standard financial intermediaries and have come close to the goal of forming a normal commercial business. However, they still face the challenge of reaching a sustainable development trajectory.

The optimal state for the banking system is when the profit provides no less capital growth rates than the asset growth rates. In this case, banks are able to pay dividends to shareholders without exposing long term prospects development. When banks turn into commercially efficient enterprises, the preconditions for a qualitative change in the nature of the relationship between banks and shareholders, including for the formation of a market for banking shares, and reducing the dependence of banks on shareholders, are emerging.

The mechanism for adjusting cash processes is complex. Many parameters that determine the state of the monetary sphere, such as the demand for money, the speed of their circulation, are beyond the control of state bodies. Therefore, the main emphasis in modern money management programs is on changing their supply, i.e. on accelerating or slowing down the rate of money emission. Control over emission processes is not direct, but indirect.

There are several ways out of a crisis situation. The first is to gradually restore lost savings. The second is to stimulate the attraction of new savings of citizens to banks and non-bank financial institutions. The third one is attraction of direct and portfolio foreign capital and external borrowings. The fourth is the use of the practice of accounting and rediscounting bills, which is widespread in the West.

These control methods have both advantages and disadvantages. The first way does not lead to inflation, but contributes to the growth of public debt. In addition, it practically does not increase financial capital, since the restoration of the population's savings occurs mainly through borrowing money from it. The second method also does not threaten inflation, but stretches out the process of growth of financial capital for a long time. This gives rise to the problem of non-payments, the lack of sources of financing for investments in fixed and working capital. The third way can mitigate the problem, but it makes the financing of the economy dependent on world market conditions. The fourth method is practically not used in our country.

It is possible to get out of the financial crisis only on the basis of overcoming the situation of the growing loss of confidence of the majority of the population in the reforms being carried out in the country. The main thing is to get away from the desocialization of financial policy. Only sustainable economic growth can suppress the sources of tension and reduce the severity of the country's debt crisis.

The basis for economic growth is the opportunity to invest. But foreign capital does not go to Russia due to doubts about the existence of normal conditions for economic activity.

One of the ways to form financial reserves for economic recovery is the development of energy conservation. In our country, the energy intensity of the gross domestic product has recently been growing, while the economic energy efficiency has been falling, although it should be the other way around. We spend one and a half times more fuel per unit of electricity produced than in Western countries. A modern Danish, German or English CHPP has an efficiency of more than 50%, while a Russian one has 36%.

Tax reforms are of great importance for the implementation of anti-crisis measures in the financial sector. The need to reduce the tax burden is dictated not only by considerations of stimulating economic growth, but also by the need to form a key characteristic of a market economy - equality of external conditions for all participants economic relations. Historically, large business, which was formed in the early 1990s. and heavily supported by state assets, from the very beginning made extensive use of its administrative and financial resources to minimize tax deductions. With the help of numerous offshore schemes, large businesses have the opportunity, on completely legal grounds, to withdraw significant amounts from taxation.

The development of the public debt market will make it possible in the future to finance cyclical budget deficits without significant losses in the form of a sharp increase in the cost of servicing. In addition, the development of the debt market can serve as the basis for the development of the financial market as a whole, i. contribute to the creation of an effective channel for the transformation of savings into investments. Finally, a mature debt market allows the real sector to determine the level of profitability in the economy with minimal risk and objectively evaluate the cost of investment projects, while the financial sector gets the opportunity to form optimal portfolios.

The success of anti-crisis management largely depends on the state of the material basis for improving the living standards of the country's population. The main factor in this increase is labor productivity, which largely depends on scientific and technological progress. And the latter, in turn, is influenced by history, culture, education, institutional factors and politics. Productivity is related to investment in human capital and in the quality of the environment.

All these problems should be solved by entrepreneurs. But we need an environment that motivates business to vigorously modernize. However, in many of its features, the Russian economy today does not have the properties of a single national economic complex; it exhibits features of fragmentation.

This fragmentation of the economy is the main obstacle to economic growth. It clearly shows that in market conditions the true measure of economic growth is not so much the rate of growth of gross domestic product as the degree of consolidation of the economy. Sustainable economic growth, as opposed to economic recession, is the privilege of holistic and balanced systems.

The development of the economy does not have sufficient stability when unfavorable changes in external conditions in one or another of its sectors cannot be compensated at the expense of the resources of other sectors. Domestic supply and demand, which form the backbone of the economy, are not oriented towards each other, are not coordinated and develop along different trajectories. The fragmentation of the economy localizes competition and provokes inflation, as producers begin to focus on the maximum demand price. In such an economy, there is a low efficiency in the use of all types of resources, since fragmentation prevents their movement to the point of highest demand.

Only the state can provide a solution to this problem. No other institution is able to achieve the necessary optimization of the structure of the national economy, the introduction of the achievements of scientific and technological progress into production, and the overcoming of the raw material orientation of exports. "In today's social conditions the responsibility for the economy - and hence for the economic fate of all the people acting in it - lies with the state. An entrepreneur is responsible for his enterprise, and this is not a little" - these words of the reformer of the post-war German economy, Ludwig Erhard, uttered many years ago, are still relevant for us today.

State regulation in this area is reduced to active industrial policy, which is a set of tools and mechanisms for influencing economic development, i.e. public procurement system, direct public lending, tax regimes etc.

The government needs to determine a state economic policy that is understandable to all: how to develop energy, industry, agriculture as a food base, use natural resources, and transform housing and communal services. It is necessary to clearly formulate the guidelines for social development, to show our role in the development of science, education, culture, mobilization of the competitive advantages that Russia has, and above all the huge domestic market and significant technological and cultural potential.

The use of capital deserves special attention. Capital is not only money and the combined power of businessmen and corporations, it is also specific people who implement financial policy and make decisions that directly affect each of us. Capital has such characteristics as development, life, history.

An analysis of the history of capital shows that it goes through certain stages in its development. Therefore, our capital, as it used to be, for example, American or British, should master not only the extraction, but also the primary processing of raw materials, form an industrial infrastructure with a sufficient supply of fuel, structural materials, highways, technologies and industries for the subsequent rapid breakthrough into high, intelligent and promising technologies.

Such development requires a significant concentration of production and the availability of large working capital. Profit, risk reduction depend on these factors. market risks, efficient technologies, visible market structure and sequence of technology change. It is in this vein that big business operates, shaping industrial policy at its own discretion and for its own benefit.

In this area, the state should not only be a business partner, but also have its own long-term strategy that would form incentives for the economic activity of each individual economic entity and which would be based on the following principles:

• ensuring that the interests of all participants in its implementation are taken into account;
• socio-economic orientation;
• a combination of state regulation measures and market mechanisms;
• creation of favorable conditions for reducing the negative consequences in the course of structural transformations, and then for improving the living standards of the population;
• the targeted nature of the events and the high responsibility of the participants for the final results of their implementation;
• a system of contractual relations and a competitive basis for participants in the process of transformation in industry;
• reasonable centralization of resources in order to ensure the development of production and prevent negative trends in the use of scientific, industrial and intellectual potential;
• widespread use of rent, leasing and investment competitions for the sale of state property;
• development and promotion of the general motivation of demand in the markets of labor, capital, goods and services, technology, etc.

N. D. Kondratiev, the author of the well-known wave theory of economic development, argued that the transition from the downward stage of the economic cycle to the upward one is associated with a deep modernization of the economy based on the emergence of fundamentally new technologies. The transition from steam to electricity, from manufactory to industry, underlay the industrial upsurge of European countries, especially England and France, in the 18th century. The well-being of America is largely due to the fact that during the Great Depression, new infrastructure solutions were laid, "embroidering" the consumption crisis.

Modern Russia is in a similar situation. Now it is important to determine what infrastructure and technological solutions will form the basis of a long-term social upsurge and dynamic economic growth. Overcoming the technological challenge of our time depends on these decisions. In practical terms, this primarily means the need to move away from unilateral inclusion in global economy through energy exports and short-term speculative investments and more balanced participation in world economic processes by integrating domestic scientific and technological potential, exporting science-intensive products and services, connecting to strategic technological alliances.

Insufficient visibility in the current Russian conditions of the internal technology market leads to the fact that at the time of choosing a modernization strategy, many entrepreneurs simply do not have objective information about the possible range of technological innovations. The communication system does not always allow market participants to form a common vision, within which only successful individual innovative strategies are possible. It is no coincidence that the budgets of high-tech companies in Silicon Valley include decent money for the exchange of experience between employees of various private and public organizations. This is how the "mainstream" is formed, the deviation from which often promises the collapse of the company.

The development of industrial production, including its structural reorganization and re-profiling, becomes impossible without attracting serious financial resources on a long-term basis. Considering their limitations, it is possible to single out the main types of commodity production (primarily science-intensive products) for two or three years and reform the enterprises involved in this process along the entire technological chain of production of the final product. This task becomes interregional and requires coordination and mutual assistance of the territories within the framework of the general state policy of economic development.

A prerequisite for the implementation of industrial policy is the coordinated actions of all authorities, banks and enterprises. This requires the political will of the authorities in terms of selecting enterprises and directions for their development, as well as the desire and ability of bankers to provide long-term loans. The second condition for its implementation is the participation of a non-governmental body that unites industrialists and entrepreneurs, ready by its actions to promote and convince commodity producers and government structures of the need for structural and other reforms at specific industrial enterprises.

Generalization and comprehension of specific models of behavior of enterprises in crisis conditions highlights the following trends:

• falling into a crisis phase inevitably forces managers to apply anti-crisis management measures;
• the anti-crisis behavior of enterprises is often the opposite of those actions that are effective in conditions of economic growth or economic stabilization;
• in industry, various anti-crisis models of enterprise activity are spontaneously formed;
• the enterprise should rely primarily on its internal reserves and capabilities.

An analysis of the existing practice of the work of executive authorities and public formations, scientists and specialists in anti-crisis management allows us to identify the main stages in the design of regional anti-crisis programs:

• 1) development and justification of the concept of socio-economic and scientific and technical development of the region for a certain period;
• 2) formulation and ranking of problems identified during the development of a program for the implementation of the adopted concept;
• 3) determination of anti-crisis goals and tasks that need to be addressed;
• 4) development of anti-crisis measures in priority areas of development of the region;
• 5) conducting a feasibility study of anti-crisis measures and investment projects;
• 6) economic justification and balance linking action plans and projects with the needs and resources of the region, possible government assistance in attracting loans and providing other support.

At the same time, it should be taken into account that each region has its own specifics in approaches to the formation of management concepts, the development of anti-crisis programs and the mechanisms for their implementation.

A socio-economic crisis is usually accompanied by a massive and inefficient allocation of labor and capital, a decline in production in the public sector of the economy. But from this sector to the state budget the main part of revenues is received, in the same sector, government spending is slowly declining. As a result, the state reduces spending on social purposes when the need for social protection, on the contrary, increases sharply.

In such circumstances, the strategy of the state's social policy should provide for the regulation of market forces.

It allows you to solve problems associated with the failure of the market and the organization of the process of redistribution of income. In this activity, the main thing is the prevention of absolute poverty. The fight against poverty is the basis for maintaining the standard of living of the population and includes social insurance and income equalization. The aim of the fight against poverty is to ensure that no citizen or family falls below a certain minimum level of income or consumption. Target social insurance- to protect every person from a sudden and unacceptably strong decline in the standard of living. The purpose of income equalization is to ensure that each person is able to actually redistribute their own income.

If there is a prolonged fiscal crisis, the task of fighting poverty takes precedence over other functions provided by cash transfers, such as insurance and income equalization. An improvement in the state budget will serve as a reason to activate other functions of cash benefits. If the state eliminates family allowances, it will exacerbate the impact of the crisis on families. These benefits stabilize consumption during difficult times for their recipients.

If there is no effective income equalization policy, irreversible consequences may arise at the personal level, negative trends in the formation of human capital may appear.

The need for public funding medical care dictated by the need, on the one hand, production public goods and, on the other hand, ensuring wide access of the population to health services: government activities in the field of health, such as vaccination and health education programs, require budgetary funds; the elderly and other economically inactive segments of the poor also need subsidies, the consumption of medicines, in particular those produced in limited quantities, is also subsidized; financing of measures to protect the health of the population is carried out mainly by the state.

But often the activity of the state in the economy does not correspond to the goals of development social sphere.

• Civil Code of the Russian Federation: part one dated November 30, 1994 No. 51-FZ; part two dated January 26, 1996 No. 14-FZ; part three of November 26, 2001 No. 146-FZ; part four of December 18, 2006 No. 230-Φ3. When independently studying the normative legal acts mentioned in the textbook, it is necessary to take into account the changes and additions that have been made to them since they came into force. The official texts of the documents can be found on the Official Internet Portal legal information(pravo.gov.ru). In addition, you can refer to such reference systems as "ConsultantPlus", "Garant", etc.
• The Constitution of the Russian Federation, adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993 (subject to amendments introduced by the Laws of the Russian Federation on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation of December 30, 2008 No. 6-FKZ and 7-FKZ).

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Russian International Academy of Tourism

Faculty: Tourism Management

Department: Management and Information Technology

COURSE WORK

on academic discipline"Crisis management"

topic: State regulation of a crisis situation

Student of the course 3MT6 group

Shanaeva Anastasia Evgenievna

INTRODUCTION

1. Theoretical and methodological foundations for studying the problems of state regulation of crisis situations

1.1. The concept of crisis, analysis of types of crisis and crisis situations

1.2 The system of state regulation of crisis situations

2. TYPES OF STATE REGULATION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS

2.1. Main processes of state regulation

3. MECHANISMS OF STATE REGULATION UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS

3.1 Main problems of crisis management in 2008-2009

3.2 Analysis of government work to manage the 2008-2009 crisis

CONCLUSION

BIBLIOGRAPHY

INTRODUCTION

The state is a public institution created and supported through the purposeful activities of people living in a certain territory in order to express and implement their will (interests), as well as to coordinate and harmonize the interactions of all citizens (social groups) in the economic, social and political spheres of life.

At the turn of the XX-XXI centuries, the functions of the state were subjected to transformations. In fact, state regulation acts as an organizing principle, a kind of control parameter. Restoring by its actions the feedback mechanism that has been violated for some reason, the state creates its additional links, thus fulfilling its role in the process of self-organization of complex systems.

If necessary, it can take on some of the functions of economic agents. But, in essence, in this case, too, it performs the same role - it creates the conditions for the economy to perform its functions in society.

Since the end of 2008 - beginning of 2009, Russia began to feel the consequences of the global economic crisis in full, while crawling into a recession - one of the last economically developed countries. The crisis is accompanied by a combination of devaluation processes, the curtailment of social programs and guarantees, and finally, mass layoffs and layoffs of workers, whose number, according to official data alone, reached more than 6 million economically active population at the end of 2008.

In the context of the global economic crisis, the role and importance of state regulation of crisis situations is steadily increasing. The state must pursue a reasonable and balanced monetary and financial policy, the state must contribute to the recovery of the real sector of the economy from the crisis, and support socially unprotected citizens affected by the global economic crisis.

1. THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASES FOR STUDYING THE PROBLEMS OF STATE REGULATION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS

1.1 The concept of crisis, analysis of types of crisis and crisis situations

In the life of an enterprise, crises or the threat of crises are a constant phenomenon. The root cause and the possibility of occurrence economic crises is the gap between the production and consumption of goods.

R.R. Akhmetov notes that "the essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the overproduction of goods in relation to the solvent aggregate demand, in violation of the conditions for the reproduction of social capital, in mass bankruptcies of firms, rising unemployment and other socio-economic shocks."

The first economic crisis occurred in England in 1825, where by that time capitalism had become the dominant system. The next crisis, which erupted in 1836, engulfed Great Britain and the United States. The crisis of 1847 affected almost all the countries of Europe. The first world economic crisis dates back to 1857. It was the deepest crisis since the beginning of capitalist development. Crisis of 1873-1878 covered most European countries and the United States and surpassed all previous ones in its duration. World economic crises occurred in 1900-1903, 1907, 1920, but none of them could be compared with the world crisis of 1929-1933. It lasted more than four years and covered the entire capitalist world and all sectors of the economy.

After this crisis, the depression was protracted. Following some revival in 1937, a new crisis set in, characterized by the fact that it was not preceded by a phase of recovery. New crisis although it was weaker than the previous one, it proceeded very sharply. The total volume of industrial production in the capitalist world decreased by 11%, and in the USA - by 21%, the production of cars decreased by 40%. The development and aggravation of this crisis was interrupted by the Second World War of 1939-1945.

After the Second World War in 1948-1949. a local economic crisis broke out, which engulfed the United States and Canada. In the United States, the volume of industrial output then fell by 18.2%, in Canada by 12%, while the total volume of industrial production in the developed capitalist countries fell by 6%. Economic crises in the capitalist countries also occurred in 1953-1954 and 1957-1958. But the deepest post-war period was the economic crisis of 1973-1975. E.A. Utkin notes that "it spread to all capitalist countries and was distinguished by a high level of inflation." A characteristic feature of this crisis was its interweaving with deep structural crises that hit the most important areas of production - energy, raw materials industries, including agriculture, and the monetary system.

The points of view of various scientists on the causes of economic crises are very contradictory. The fundamental difference between K. Marx's position on this issue is that he saw the reasons for the cyclical nature of capitalist reproduction in the very nature of capitalism, directly in the contradiction between the social nature of production and the private nature of the appropriation of its results.

Representatives of the neoclassical and liberal schools put forward various causes of economic crises without linking them to the nature of capitalism. Many of them consider the underconsumption of the population, causing overproduction, to be the cause of crises. But the emerging lack of consumption (solvency) is more a consequence than a cause of crises.

To date, economic science has developed a number of different theories that explain the causes of economic cycles and crises. P. Samuelson, for example, notes the following as the most famous theories of cycles and crises in his book "Economics":

Monetary theory, which explains the causes of the cycle by expansion (contraction) of bank credit;

The theory of innovation, which explains the economic cycle by the use of important innovations in production;

A psychological theory that interprets the cycle as a consequence of waves of pessimistic and optimistic mood covering the population;

The theory of underconsumption, which sees the cause of the cycle as too much of the income going to rich and thrifty people compared to what can be invested;

The overinvestment theory, whose proponents believe that recessions are caused by overinvestment rather than underinvestment;

The theory of sunspots - weather - harvest.

When evaluating the views of economists on crises and their causes, it should be noted that these views have been transformed over time along with changes in the socio-economic reality itself. With this in mind, the point of view of a number of Russian economists deserves attention, who distinguish three stages in the development of views on cyclicality in crisis phenomena.

The first stage covers the period from the beginning of the XVIII century. until the mid 30s. 20th century During this period, judgments prevailed that economic crises were either impossible at all under capitalism, or that they were only of an accidental nature, and that the system of free competition was capable of overcoming them on its own.

The second stage covers the period from the mid-1930s to the mid-1960s. 20th century The selection of this period is connected with the works of J. M. Keynes, and above all with his conclusion that economic crises (more precisely, depression, stagnation) are inevitable under classical capitalism and follow from the nature of the market inherent in it. Keynes was one of the first Western economists to explicitly state that the capitalist market includes various manifestations of monopoly and is combined with government regulation, which makes prices and wages inflexible. As a fundamentally necessary means of smoothing the problems of crisis and unemployment, Keynes put forward the idea of ​​ensuring state intervention in the economy in order to stimulate effective aggregate demand. His merits in the study of the cyclicity factor should also include the theory of the multiplier developed by him, which subsequently became widely used in the analysis of the causes of cyclicity.

The third stage in the study of the causes of economic cycles is the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1960s. until now. During this period, firstly, special attention was paid to the distinction between exogenous (internal) and endogenous (external) reasons for the cyclical nature of the market economy, and it was endogenous factors that became the object of close study. Secondly, the position of a number of specialists has been determined, according to which the state in developed countries does not always strive for anti-crisis regulation, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations and stabilizing the economic balance, but often pursues the so-called pro-cyclical policy, that is, it provokes and supports cyclicity.

A.I. Dudnik notes that "studies of the nature of reproduction cycles under the conditions of state regulation of the economy contributed to the development of new views and concepts on this issue." Among them are the concepts of "equilibrium business cycle" and "political business cycle".

The first reflects the development of the ideas of monetarism. According to this concept, the state, along with many of its inherent functions, plays the role of a kind of generator of monetary "shocks" that bring the economic system out of equilibrium and thus support cyclical fluctuations in social reproduction.

The second concept ("political business cycle") is based on the fact that the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate is determined by the Phillips curve, i.e. there is an inverse relationship between these values: the lower the unemployment rate, the faster prices rise. Its supporters believe that economic situation inside the country significantly affects the popularity of the ruling party.

For the enterprise, there are external and internal causes of the crisis. External causes are those on which the enterprise cannot influence, or this impact may be insignificant. External causes include international and national factors.

International factors are formed under the influence of general economic reasons ( economic cyclicality development of the leading countries, the state of the world financial system, characterized by the policy of international banks), the stability of international trade, which, in turn, depends on the concluded intergovernmental treaties and agreements (on the creation of free enterprise zones, border trade, customs tariffs and duties), on international competition (an increase in the market share of competing firms due to the use of higher technologies or cheaper labor).

National factors may be due to reasons of a political, economic-geographical, cultural and scientific-technical nature.

Thus, political stability and direction domestic policy States implemented through law are expressed in relation to entrepreneurial activity" and the principles of state regulation of the economy, as well as in relation to forms of ownership, measures to protect the rights of consumers and entrepreneurs. All this is accumulated in legislative norms, acts that determine the activities of enterprises.

Economic and geographical factors are characterized by the size and structure of needs, and under certain economic conditions, by the effective demand of the population. They can also include the level of income and savings of the population, i.e. purchasing power, price level, the possibility of obtaining a loan, which significantly affect entrepreneurial activity, the phase of the economic cycle in which the national economy is located. A drop in demand, for example, characteristic of the corresponding phase of economic development, leads to increased competition, ruin or takeover of a bankrupt enterprise.

Factors of a cultural nature are manifested in habits, consumption norms and preferences for some goods over others.

Crises are regular (cyclic), or periodic, which are repeated with a certain pattern, and irregular.

Regular crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle, during which the economy successively passes through four phases and prepares the basis for the subsequent crisis. They are characterized by the fact that they cover all spheres of the economy, reaching great depth and duration.

To irregular economic crises include intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural crises. The intermediate crisis does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for some time the course of the boom or recovery phase. It is less deep and less long in comparison with periodic and, as a rule, has a local character. Similar crises took place in the capitalist countries in 1924 and 1927, and in 1953-1954 and 1960-1961. gg. such crises only affected the US and Canada.

A partial crisis differs from an intermediate one in that it does not cover the entire economy, but any sphere of social reproduction. A typical example is the banking crisis in Germany in 1932.

The sectoral crisis covers one of the branches of the national economy. The reason for it can be a variety of reasons. Among them: disproportions in the development of the industry, restructuring, overproduction. Such crises are national and international. The latter include the crisis of world shipping in 1958-1962. and the crisis in the textile industry in 1977.

Structural crisis is a violation of the law of proportional development of social production. This is manifested in serious disproportions between industries, on the one hand, and the output of the most important types of products in physical terms, necessary for a balanced development of the economy, on the other. In the 1970s the economy of the West was paralyzed by the energy, raw materials, and food crises.

Before the onset of the next periodic crisis, production reaches its highest level, behind which overproduction and an increase in supply are already hidden.

In this regard, naturally, questions arise: is it possible to predict the economic future, how to save an enterprise or household from collapse, what is the role of the state in this case, what constitutes the mechanism of state regulation, etc.

From the perspective of regulation theory, crises can be classified in the following way:

? crisis as a result" external" shock. In this sense, a crisis is understood as a situation when the continuation of the economic development of a particular geographical community is blocked due to a lack of resources associated with natural or economic disasters;

? cyclical crises. Here, the crisis is a phase of elimination of stresses and imbalances that have accumulated during the rise in economic mechanisms and social processes;

? structural (big) crisis. Any instance of the contradictory nature of long-term reproduction;

? crisis of the regulatory system. A situation where the mechanisms associated with existing system regulation are unable to change unfavorable market processes, although the accumulation regime remains quite viable;

? crisis of the mode of production. This crisis is characterized by an aggravation of the contradictions that develop in the depths of the most important institutional forms - the forms that determine the regime of accumulation. In the course of a crisis, the regularities on which the organization of production is based, the prospects for the profitable use of capital, the distribution of value and the structure of social demand turn out to be unviable. This is a situation when the entire dynamics of the reproduction of this particular economy is blocked.

In this way, a crisis -- this is an extreme exacerbation of contradictions in the socio-economic system (organization), threatening its viability in the environment. The causes of the crisis may be different. They are divided into objective, related to the needs of modernization and restructuring, and subjective, reflecting mistakes and voluntarism in management, as well as natural ones.

1.2 The system of state regulation of crisis situations

A crisis is a severe transitional state of the economy. On the one hand, the crisis acts as a brake on economic development, which is expressed in a fall in prices, share prices, bank interest, a reduction in production, a reduction in employment, and a fall in the profitability of enterprises. On the other hand, during a crisis, the foundations are laid for restoring the violated laws of economic movement and its further development. At the same time, the spontaneous market mechanism uses crisis parameters to resolve contradictions.

The state policy in regulating crisis situations is to minimize the economic and social damage caused by the bankruptcy of an organization. At the same time, it is important to note that the ruin of inefficient enterprises is the most important factor in the market economy, ensuring its growth and development.

The anti-crisis policy of the state is implemented at three levels:

maintaining the competitiveness of the main sectors of the national economy;

· prevention and avoidance of crises in economic and socially significant areas, such as banking or public transport;

· reduction of the negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the enterprise, the fullest possible satisfaction of the interests of its employees and creditors.

The goal of state regulation of crisis situations is to ensure socio-economic stability in society. The immediate consequence of this main goal is the formation of starting conditions and the potential for economic growth, and on this basis, the improvement of the well-being of the people. This goal more specifically transforms the overall main goal, as can be seen from Figure 1.1.

Rice. 1.1. The purpose of state regulation

In areas of particular importance for economic and social life, the state applies special measures to prevent crises.

Such measures can be divided into two groups: administrative and economic.

Administrative measures are based on specific targeted tasks focused on achieving the goals of the system by forming its clear structure, creating conditions for the preparation, adoption and implementation management decisions. Administrative measures express a direct impact on managed objects, pursue mainly the interests of the governing body. At the same time, the main share of responsibility for the decisions made lies with the management body, the rights of managed objects are limited. The applicable administrative orders are, as a rule, unambiguous, require mandatory execution, and do not allow significant deviations from the order.

Economic measures are based on general rules behavior, choice of maneuver economic strategy. They have an indirect impact on the objects of management, take into account the economic interests of enterprises of various forms of ownership. Also, economic measures imply complete independence of economic entities with high responsibility for the actions taken and their consequences and encourage economic entities to prepare alternative solutions and choose the best solution from the point of view of the interests of this entity and taking into account the acceptable economic risk.

Such measures make it possible to minimize the risks of bankruptcy of socially significant enterprises and also mitigate the negative consequences of such bankruptcy. Socially significant enterprises include city-forming and strategic enterprises, banks, insurance and financial companies, agricultural enterprises, as well as natural monopolies.

2. TYPES OF STATE REGULATION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS

Anti-crisis regulation is a government policy that is aimed at protecting against crisis situations and preventing the insolvency of enterprises, and, consequently, every citizen of the country. This is a policy within the framework of which paths are built for maximizing the use of scientific and technological potential and for introducing innovative development paths in all areas of activity. Also, anti-crisis regulation should be based on the previous experience not only of one's own country, but also of the world. A policy of anti-crisis measures should be developed on the basis of knowledge gained in the past: what crises have occurred, what are the business cycles, what kind of consequences (both negative and positive) have been caused. Indeed, often a crisis is the beginning of a new vector, the replacement of outdated technologies with modern ones. That is why a complete diagnosis of all possible aspects is necessary.

There are two main forms of state regulation:

I. Direct, implying the direct impact of the state on aggregate demand and supply;

II. Indirect, involving the indirect impact of the state.

Examples of direct impacts include the creation of a public sector, redistribution of income and programming of the economy; examples of indirect impact - the relevant activities of the credit, financial and tax systems.

The government of the country is responsible for the events taking place, therefore, the general situation in the state depends on the state policy. To stabilize the economic situation and strengthen positions in the international arena government bodies carry out protection measures in the following areas: legal (creation of legal basis anti-crisis management, the creation of special bodies for the control and examination of enterprises in crisis situations), methodological (monitoring and analysis of bankruptcy of enterprises), informational (analysis and accounting of the solvency of enterprises), economic and administrative (methods of regulating economic activity for stabilization), organizational (creation of conditions for a peaceful, civilized resolution of conflict situations), social (protection of employees in the event of bankruptcy of an enterprise), personnel (training of specialists in the field of anti-crisis management), environmental (environmental protection). Since the political and economic situation in the world as a whole and in a particular country is unstable, constant changes in the established policy are necessary: ​​correction of tax rates, amendments to existing laws, tightening measures to control the activities of enterprises.

2.2 Processes of state regulation of crisis situations

State anti-crisis regulation of the economy is directly related to economic policy and is aimed at its implementation. The state, in order to achieve the goals of its economic policy, uses various forms and methods, which form the tools of state regulation of the economy.

Firstly, it is counter-cyclical regulation, which consists in a system of ways and methods of influencing the economic situation and economic activity, aimed at mitigating cyclical fluctuations. The negative consequences of the cyclical development, especially the negative ones, force the states to pursue a countercyclical policy, including measures aimed at preventing sharp fluctuations in the development of production. These activities have the opposite direction of the emerging economic situation in each phase of the economic cycle.

The main measures of countercyclical policy include:

1. Monetary (monetary) policy is the actions of the government that affect the amount of money in circulation, that is, the money supply. During upswings, the state reduces the money supply, the amount of money that is in circulation, and during a crisis, on the contrary, it increases.

2. Fiscal policy, which involves maneuvering taxes and government spending in order to influence the economy. During the economic recovery, there is an increase in taxes and a reduction in budget expenditures, and, accordingly, in a crisis period, taxes reduce and increase budget expenditures. Reducing government spending reduces aggregate demand leading to a fall in production, income and employment. Growth in government spending causes a backlash: aggregate demand rises, production expands, incomes rise, and unemployment falls.

3. Wage policy. It is structured as follows: during upswings, wages are lowered, and during periods of crisis, the opposite measure is taken - wages are raised.

4. Investment policy. This measure involves reducing public spending during economic upswings, and increasing public investment during a crisis.

The next method of regulation is the management of the refinancing rate. The refinancing rate is the amount of annualized interest payable central bank countries for loans provided to credit institutions. This measure involves an increase in the rate during periods of crisis and a weakening of the rate during upswings. You can see how the rate changed during the global crisis of 2007 - 2010. By decrees of the Central Bank, the rates changed as follows:

Regulation is also carried out in the form of an impact on production: state regulation in this area is reduced to an active industrial policy, which is based on the following principles: (ensuring that the interests of all participants in its implementation are taken into account, socio-economic orientation, a combination of state regulation measures and market mechanisms, targeted events, a system of contractual relations and a competitive basis for its participants, the widespread use of rent, leasing and investment competitions for the sale of state property).

Normative legislative activity also carries out regulation. The fundamental document is the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. Its rules in accordance with paragraph 1 of Art. 76 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation have "direct effect on the entire territory of the Russian Federation". The main document is also the Federal Law "On the Insolvency (Bankruptcy) of Enterprises" No. 127-FZ of October 26, 2002.

3. MECHANISMS OF STATE REGULATION DURING THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS

3.1 Main problems of crisis management in 2008-2009

More than ten years have passed since the crisis of 1998, and during this time, economic growth has increased in our country, and the well-being of people has increased. But at the end of 2007, Russia again faced a serious economic problem - the global economic crisis, which led to a drop in production, rising unemployment and a decrease in household incomes.

The impact of the global economic crisis has its own characteristics that are typical for our country, and they are associated with the accumulated deformations of the structure of the economy, the underdevelopment of a number of market institutions, including the financial system.

For the Russian economy, the main problem is the following - a very high dependence on the export of natural resources. Oil and gas exports, exports of metals and other raw materials still play a key role in our economy. But as a result of the crisis, prices and demand for almost all Russian raw material exports fell.

The next problem is the lack of competitiveness of non-resource sectors of the economy, that is, when the problem began in the resource sectors, the problems from these industries began to spread to related ones. And as a result, there was a significant drop in industrial production, an increase in the number of unemployed, wages decreased and a number of other negative consequences.

The third problem is the underdevelopment of the financial sector, namely banks. Many Russian enterprises that developed rather quickly in the pre-crisis years and entered foreign markets could not count on domestic financing. Loans from the Russian banking system were more expensive, and the terms of lending were shorter, which forced them to borrow loans abroad. But during the crisis overseas markets capital became unavailable to the enterprise.

The national economy in the pre-crisis years developed largely due to external sources- these are high prices for raw materials, cheap loans from foreign banks. But at the beginning of the crisis, Russia needed to find internal sources of growth to get out of the crisis and ensure long-term sustainable development.

In October-December 2008, the government began to implement anti-crisis measures, which was prompted by the fact that the crisis began to have a serious impact on the Russian economy, and there was a sharp drop in production. The "Anti-crisis program of the Government of the Russian Federation for 2009" was adopted, which was aimed at improving the financial and economic condition of the country.

This Program included a number of priority areas:

1. Fulfillment of social obligations to the population, which meant providing support to citizens most affected by the crisis: creation of temporary jobs; allocation of funds for retraining and development of small businesses.

2. Strengthening the national economy: activation of domestic demand for domestic goods; support for enterprises implementing innovations.

3. Support for innovative projects; support for energy-saving technologies and the development of high-tech industries, including aircraft and shipbuilding, the space industry, and nuclear energy.

4. Development of competition and improvement antitrust regulation; reduction of the list of goods subject to mandatory certification; anti-corruption measures; support for small and medium-sized businesses by reducing taxes and expanding access to public procurement.

5. Improving the efficiency of the banking system by expanding the resource base and increasing the liquidity of the financial system; by increasing the availability of bank loans for enterprises in the real sector to ensure the rehabilitation of banks.

6. Implementation of the macroeconomic policy of the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia, aimed at maintaining a stable position of the ruble exchange rate and reducing inflation, as well as pursuing a monetary policy.

The results of the anti-crisis measures of the Government of the Russian Federation for 2009 were: GDP growth; a sharp slowdown in inflation; reduction in the unemployment rate in the country. The decline in industrial production also slowed down, and the incomes of citizens increased. “In 2009, we not only solved urgent problems, but also did not waste time for systemic transformations. All this allows us, without slowing down, to move from anti-crisis management to sustainable innovative development,” this is how the result of anti-crisis measures for 2009 was expressed by V. V. Putin.

Despite the positive results, it cannot be said that the situation in the country has finally returned to normal. This is due to the fact that the emerging positive trends were inconsistent and unstable, as a result economic indicators did not rise to pre-crisis levels. Therefore, it was decided to continue the anti-crisis policy in 2010 in order to preserve and strengthen positive trends and eliminate "residual" negative consequences. Among the priority areas, emphasis was placed on ensuring social stability, supporting economic recovery and implementing measures to address the problems of the Russian economy, including improving the institutional environment, building a new regulation model, creating the necessary economic conditions for the transition from the anti-crisis regime of the economy to solving modernization problems. .

Thus, in 2010, an improvement was planned general situation in the country by improving the quality of life, reducing unemployment, modernizing enterprises, creating new jobs and normalizing the banking system.

I would like to say that no innovation can work without the mistakes of the first steps, the country adopts the experience of developed countries, builds directions for improvement, and then much depends on the methods of implementation.

3.2 Analysis of government work to manage the 2008-2009 crisis

Crisis of 2008 - 2009 turned out to be a serious test for our country. The peculiarity of the current situation was that the main negative trends were the result of developments in the global economy.

Since for Russia the observed economic downturn was unique, then predicting its duration and consequences becomes a difficult task. How accurately the characteristics of the crisis, namely its depth and duration, will be determined, will depend on the decision of the authorities to minimize its consequences.

The program of anti-crisis measures of the government of the Russian Federation for 2009 provides an optimal combination of anti-crisis measures and long-term projects aimed at building a new, more efficient economy. The priorities of the program are as follows: the fulfillment of the state's social obligations to citizens, the preservation and development of industrial and technological potential, the development of competition and the reduction of administrative pressure on business, the increase in the stability of the national financial system, ensuring macroeconomic balance, keeping the course for the stability of the national currency, reducing inflation; taking actions to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy, accelerating the transition to an innovative type of development.

The seven main priorities for the government's work in managing the 2008-2009 crisis.

1. Public obligations of the state to the population are fulfilled in full. Citizens and families most affected during the global economic crisis received support. This implies strengthening the social protection of the population, increasing the volume and quality of social and medical services, improving the situation with drug provision, especially vital drugs. Particular attention is paid to the preservation of labor potential. The scale of government activities in the field of employment, counteracting the growth of unemployment, development of programs for retraining and retraining of workers at risk of dismissal have been expanded;

2. The industrial and technological potential for future growth must be preserved and strengthened. The government will not invest taxpayers' money in maintaining inefficient industries. At the same time, enterprises that have increased their efficiency in recent years, invested in the development of production and the creation of new products, and increased labor productivity, have the right to count on state assistance in solving the most acute problems caused by the crisis;

3. The basis of the post-crisis recovery and subsequent progressive development should be domestic demand. Weakening the dependence of economic growth on external factors, the most efficient use of internal resources will be the key tasks of the government in the coming years. During the crisis, domestic demand from the state (government investment and public procurement) will play an important role, but as the situation stabilizes, private demand (demand for housing, consumer goods, services of domestic production) will play an increasing role, and the Government will take all necessary measures to increase it.

4. The crisis is not a reason to abandon the long-term priorities of the country's modernization. This work will be intensified and accelerated. The main modernization task of the government is to change the existing model of economic growth. Instead of "oil" growth, we must move to innovative. The most important innovation processes will be supported, including increasing the energy efficiency of the economy. Investing in human capital - education and healthcare - will be a key priority for budget spending. Infrastructural facilities necessary to improve the efficiency of the economy should be implemented, while the efficiency of spending both budgetary and private funds will be significantly increased.

5. Business is exempted from the pressure of officials. The government will continue to reduce administrative barriers for businesses, which are one of the causes of corruption. A new set of measures will also be proposed to allow small businesses to successfully develop in a crisis.

6. The economy must be based on a strong national financial system. The government is taking all necessary efforts to normalize the functioning of the financial sector, including the banking and insurance systems, the stock market, for the necessary volumes to enter the economy investment resources. At the same time, special attention is paid to the speed of decision-making and implementation.

7. The Government and the Central Bank are implementing a responsible macroeconomic policy aimed at both maintaining macroeconomic stability and creating the necessary conditions, incentives for the growth of household savings, increasing the investment attractiveness of the economy, and creating a qualitatively different model of economic development. This suggests a weighted budget policy, maintaining an equilibrium exchange rate of the ruble. Monetary policy will be aimed at combating the liquidity crisis in the financial sector while reducing inflation. The measures taken should lead to increased confidence in national currency, increase the level of monetization of the economy, reduce inflation, thereby providing the necessary conditions for the restoration of sustainable economic growth. crisis economy cyclical recovery

The Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia took measures to improve Russian economy in 2009. Among the main ones, the following can be distinguished: strengthening the social protection of the population, ensuring guarantees of social and medical care, governmental support spheres of employment (695.8 billion rubles have been allocated); social protection (447.9 billion rubles); co-financing of regional programs aimed at reducing tension in the labor market of constituent entities of the Russian Federation (43.7 billion rubles); an increase in the amount of unemployment benefits (29.8 billion rubles); carrying out weekly monitoring in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation of dismissal of employees in connection with the liquidation of organizations or a reduction in the number or staff of employees, as well as underemployment of employees of the organization; preservation and enhancement of industrial and technological potential (675.4 billion rubles); general support for the real sector and work with backbone enterprises (302.0 billion rubles); tax incentive measures (296 billion rubles); support for certain sectors of the economy (373.4 billion rubles); providing financial support for enterprises of the military-industrial complex (70 billion rubles); increasing the stability of the national financial system (485 billion rubles); interaction between the Government of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation in the implementation of anti-crisis measures (300 billion rubles).

In this way, the most significant negative consequences of the financial crisis, which are widespread, have been listed above. In fact, this is what happened in 2008-2010 in the economy and social sphere. Indeed, there were many problems and it was necessary to solve them comprehensively.

The global economic crisis was of a systemic nature, affecting most sectors of the economy and the social sphere in each country, affecting the structure of the world economy and the principles of international economic relations. There was a high probability that the crisis would be prolonged. The government took these factors into account when developing and implementing anti-crisis measures and proceeded from the need to maintain the necessary amount of accumulated financial resources to solve both anti-crisis tasks and strategic development tasks in subsequent years.

As a result, Russia managed to get out of the crisis, which indicates that the state is making the right decision in regulating such situations. Problems and gaps in existing programs are still present, because nothing is perfect. Therefore, we should carefully take into account the experience of past years, make adjustments to the programs of anti-crisis measures in order to minimize losses during crisis situations.

CONCLUSION

The global economic crisis of 2008-2009 was the result of the failure of the established financial system as a result of the poor quality of regulation, due to which huge risks were not properly considered.

The global financial regulatory institutions have not reacted to the events taking place in recent years with adequate actions, which has confirmed the discrepancy between their activities and the needs of the modern world. Due to the lack of tools to prevent and minimize the consequences of the crisis, the world is faced with serious economic shocks and - as a result - with the growth of global social instability.

In the context of globalization, for the normal functioning of the world economy, a stable, predictable and functioning according to predetermined rules international monetary and financial system is required, which is based on the maintenance of macroeconomic and financial discipline leading world economies. Crisis of 2008 - 2009 showed that maintaining such discipline remains an unresolved task, both for sovereign states and for leading companies operating in global markets.

In addition, the global economic crisis indicates the need to abandon standard approaches and require the adoption of collective, internationally agreed decisions aimed, in essence, at creating a system for managing the globalization process. All countries need to act as decisively as possible in order to restore sustainable economic development, as well as confidence and stability in financial markets.

The new international structure of financial relations, according to D.A. Medvedev, should be based on the following principles: compatibility of activities and harmony of standards of national and international regulatory institutions; democracy and equal responsibility for decision-making; achieving efficiency based on the legitimacy of international coordination mechanisms; transparency of activities of all participants; fair distribution of risks.

In general, it is difficult to overestimate the role of the state in the economy. It creates conditions for economic activity, protects entrepreneurs from the threat of monopolies, provides for the needs of society in public goods, provides social protection low-income segments of the population, solves issues of national defense. On the other hand, government intervention can in some cases noticeably weaken the market mechanism and bring noticeable harm to the country's economy. But government intervention market economy nevertheless necessary. The only question is to what extent and by what methods this intervention should be carried out.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Albegova I.M. State economic policy / I.M. Albegov, R.G. Yemtsova, A.V. Kholopov. -M.: Business and service, 2008

2. Akhmetov R.R. On the impact of the global financial crisis on Russian financial markets. Finance and credit. - 2008. No. 28.

3. Gamzaeva G.E. Anti-crisis management: essence, goals, tasks. 2007, p. 126.

4. Dontsova L.V. Issues of state regulation of the economy: main directions and forms / "Marketing in Russia and abroad", 2009. P.12

5. Dokhina R.R. The main trends in state regulation at the present stage of market relations in Russia / R.R. Dokhina: Academy of Management "TIBSI": 2009

6. Dudnik A.I. Crisis management. 2005. S. 14.

7. Kovan S.E. Theory of anti-crisis management of an enterprise: a study guide \ S.E. Cowan, L.P. Mokrova, A.N. Ryakhovskaya; ed. M.A. Fedotova, A.N. Ryakhovskaya. - M.: KNORUS, 2009. - p. 29-32.

8. Korotkov E.M. Anti-crisis management: textbook (neck). -M.:INFRA-M, 2007

9. Kushilin V. - state regulation of the economy: overdue decisions // Economist magazine. 2007 No. 11

10. Utkin E.A. Crisis management. M.: EKMOS, 2005. S. 79.

11. Ushanov P.V. Anti-crisis management: socio-psychological aspects. Money and credit. 2008, p. 63.

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