Now speaking solely of diversification as a quality management method loan portfolio, let's move on to the question of what opinions exist in scientific circles regarding this tool, the strength and direction of its influence. So, having studied a rather extensive range of works, we can conclude that the views on this tool are completely ambiguous.
Let's start with those works that rank diversification as a rather positive method of influence and argue in favor of increasing its degree in matters of risk and return management. This position is defended by the vast majority of basic works and teaching aids on this topic. For example, (Diamond, 1984) notes that the method under consideration has an extremely positive effect on reducing the probability of a bank's default, as well as on its profitability. main reason This is where significant cost savings come into play. financial intermediation, as well as the fact that banks with a high level of concentration of the loan portfolio for one reason or another in the period economic downturns begin to experience significant, sometimes insurmountable difficulties. In institutions with a proper degree of diversification, the severity of the consequences is not so palpable.
Of course, in order to prove the theses presented above, it is advisable to cite a number of research work, which are built directly on real data. There are quite a few articles pointing to the positive features of diversification. So, for example, (Rossi, Schwaiger, & Winkler, 2009) describe the influence of the factor we are considering on such banking indicators as risk, capitalization, as well as profit and cost efficiency. This work, of course, will be useful for the current study, since it basically contains a number of similar variables, and is also meaningful in terms of the reasoning of the hypotheses put forward and the use of methodology. As an explanatory variable, the authors chose the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, which, in our opinion, should be used in works of this kind. The study is based on data on Australian banks from 1997 to 2003. It uses indicators of diversification by sectors of the economy and by the size of loans issued. As will be indicated in the chapter on Enlightened Methodology, the first measurement method will be used in the current study. As for the final results of this article, the authors found a positive effect of diversification on indicators such as capitalization and profitability. In addition, the initial assumption was confirmed that more intensive use of the chosen method leads to a decrease in the risk level of the loan portfolio. Although the impact on efficiency in the area of costs turned out to be negative, this does not play a significant role for our study.
Another work (Deng, Elyasiani, & Mao, 2007) can serve as additional evidence of the positive impact of a high degree of diversification. Based on its conclusions, the considered method is certainly good, but the magnitude of the effect depends on the chosen method of avoiding concentration. From a previous article (Rossi, Schwaiger, & Winkler, 2009) we found that lending can be applied by industry and by size of loans issued. The authors of the second study provide evidence that geographic diversification has the most tangible and stable effect. Unfortunately, the application of this method in the framework of the current study seems hardly possible, since in financial reporting only a very limited number of banks in Russia can find relevant data in quantitative terms. However, for a general understanding of the effect and impact of other methods, this work is also important. The author found that the use of the indicated method improves the position in the risk-return relationship of the loan portfolio in banking companies USA.
The article (Bebczuk & Galindo, 2008) is also interesting. Its authors examined the impact of diversification on risk and return in the period financial crisis in Argentina in 2001-2002. They found that in the case of this country, the composition of the loan portfolio does not change significantly during economic downturns, and the influence of the chosen method only becomes more effective. In general, diversification has a positive effect on both credit risk and future returns, and this is especially true for large Argentinean banks.
Concluding the review of works advocating a high degree of diversification, one can also take into account the study (Hughes, Lang, Mester, & Moon, 1996), which studied the feasibility of using the method in terms of impact on production efficiency. Thus, the end results are positive influence diversification across different states ( geographical method). They explain the main reason for the revealed pattern by the appearance of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Banking Efficiency Act in 1994.
Now let's move on to the authors, who are more skeptical about the high degree of diversification and argue in favor of the concentration of the loan portfolio. First of all, it is worth pointing out the roots of this idea. It originates, as it was found out, from the theory of corporate finance (Rossi, Schwaiger, & Winkler, 2009). Hellwig (1998) has shown that it would be better for many banks to focus on a limited number of the most significant projects in order to reduce monitoring costs. In some way, this statement served as the basis for putting forward alternative hypotheses in our work, which will be demonstrated in the next chapter. The indicated fact speaks in favor of concentration. Interestingly, the work in question is an extension classical model(Diamond, 1984), which has been shown to be in favor of a high level of diversification. An analysis of the study (Winton, 1999) leads to even greater conviction of the opposite effect. This author tried to model the choice of a financial institution between high degrees of concentration and diversification. He found that the use of the second strategy can only be justified when the bank has weak incentives for monitoring, and the amount of loans issued is moderately responsive to downturns in the economy. In cases where the level of risk is excessively high or, conversely, insignificant, diversification can lead to an increase in the probability of default, and also be very expensive for a financial institution. Thus, the possibility of the existence of a U-shaped relationship between the level of diversification and the degree of risk was declared for the first time. Subsequently, using the data of some countries as an example, as will be seen below, many authors tried to prove this kind of dependence. In our work, for Russian banks, the corresponding hypothesis will also be introduced into the model to test the risk-nonmonotonic effect of concentration on the profitability of banks.
Moving directly to studies and journal articles describing the negative impact of diversification on various indicators considered financial institutions, it is worth taking into account two rather substantial works. The first of these (Kamp, Pfingsten, Memmel, & Behr, 2006) is based on data from the German banking sector between 1993 and 2003 and attempts to answer similar questions to ours. As for the measure of risk and return, the impact of diversification on which is supposed to be found, here the authors argue that a concentrated loan portfolio will best solution for commercial bank. The role of explanatory variables for the degree of risk is the amount of reserves for loan losses (LLP) and the indicator of non-performing loans (Non-Performing Loans, NPL). For profitability, the proxy variables are ROE and ROA. In our work, the same indicators are supposed to be used (LLP as a proxy for risk and ROE - a proxy for return). However, it should be noted that the authors also tested the model with the standard deviation of risk as an explanatory measure. In this case, a high degree of diversification, on the contrary, turned out to be preferable for the bank. The second work worth considering (Acharya, Hasan, & Saunders, 2006) also suggests that a high degree of use of the chosen method of loan portfolio management may not give any suitable results. Both in the case of diversification by industry and by type of borrower (government, individuals, legal entities, MBC) and geography, the impact on quality was not satisfactory. It is worth noting that it was also decided to use the indicator by the type of borrower in our study. Thus, this article seems to be quite useful for further analysis. The above-mentioned hypothesis about the U-shaped nature of the relationship was also taken into account here. So, in the case of an organization with an excessively low level of credit risk a albeit insignificant, but still a positive effect of diversification by type of borrower and geographical feature on profitability was observed. In the case of the industry variable, the chosen method is associated only with costs.
Finally, another article (Tabak, Fazio, & Cajueiro, 2011) can provide some insight into the issue under study. Based on the work (Hass, Ferreira, & Taci, 2010), its authors examined the effect of concentration of the loan portfolio, coupled with the type of ownership in which a particular bank was located. The study, built on data from the Brazilian system, confirmed all the basic hypotheses, as in previous works. It was found that a particularly effective concentrated loan portfolio would be foreign banks and banks in state property. This trend is clearly visible for the entire set of Brazilian financial institutions of this type, especially in the period after the 2008 crisis.
Summing up the chapter, it is worth noting that we have considered the main theoretical aspects researched question. In addition, with the help of many analyzed studies, foreign experience in applying such a method as diversification in the management of the loan portfolio of banks was studied. The work done allows, based on the opinion of reputable scientists, to develop a methodology for achieving the goal and identify the necessary patterns on its basis.
Content
Control loan portfolio commercial bank and its domestic specifics 3
Determining the optimal loan portfolio of a bank 8
References 13
Appendix 1 14
Management of the loan portfolio of a commercial bank and its domestic specifics
The rapid development of the Russian banking system has determined the ability of bank managers and their employees to master the methods and techniques of work, in contrast to Western countries, where the process of formation of the banking system takes place over several centuries.In general, the problems of the Russian banking system are due to two reasons: firstly, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions are evident, and secondly, there are internal reasons associated with the peculiarities of the activities of the commercial banks themselves.
The domestic banking system is characterized by an increase in the total volume of loans granted. The quality of the loan portfolio does not directly depend on the bank's lending specification (which is evidenced by a significant share of loans in total assets), and varies for each bank. The way to improve the quality of the loan portfolio is to improve the management of loan operations.
At present, many commercial banks do not have their own concept of loan operations management, they are characterized by the weakness of certain aspects of loan operations management, there is no system of approach to its implementation. In domestic conditions of the accelerated development of the banking system, commercial banks often do not have a developed process for managing loan operations. Not perceiving it as an integral system, banks lose sight of the solution of problems associated with the imperfection of certain constituent elements of this process.
Among the negative aspects that appeared as a result of the imperfection of the management of loan operations and causing the formation of a portfolio of non-performing or overdue loans, one can include factors such as the lack of a documented presentation of the credit policy; insufficient diversification of the loan portfolio; irrational degree of centralization/decentralization of leadership; lack of a system of financial analysis of the borrower; insufficient verification of the borrower; insufficient control over credit documentation. Such shortcomings in the management of loan operations lead to the weakness of the loan portfolio, its poor quality, the emergence of a large array of non-performing loans, insolvency and impaired liquidity of the bank. Considering the high share of loans in the total assets of a commercial bank, it can be said that one of the reasons for the massive revocation of the license by the Bank of Russia and the aggravation of the problems of unprofitability was the problem of managing loan operations.
Commercial banks have the opportunity to avoid the omissions listed above, subject to the establishment of a loan management system (formation of a loan portfolio).
The formation of the loan portfolio of a commercial bank is the main stage in the implementation of its credit policy. The loan portfolio is a set of investments in credited objects, purposefully formed in accordance with a certain credit strategy, including already overdue debt. Based on this, when forming an optimal loan portfolio, one should strive to implement the developed credit policy by selecting the most effective and reliable credit investments that fall under the system of lending limits of the credit policy itself.
The entire process of forming a loan portfolio can be divided into three blocks.
The first block involves the formation of a system of credit limits in accordance with the goals and strategy of the bank's credit policy. Establishing credit limits performs the function of credit risk management. The loan portfolio, as you know, is not only a source of income, but also a source of risks. The degree of credit risk of banks depends on factors such as:
- the degree of concentration of the bank's lending activities in any area (industry) that is sensitive to changes in the economy;
- the share of loans and other banking contracts attributable to clients experiencing certain specific difficulties;
- concentration of the bank's activities in little-studied, new, non-traditional areas;
- introduction of frequent or significant changes in the bank's policy on granting loans, forming a portfolio of securities;
- share of new and recently attracted clients;
- introduction of too many new services in a short period;
- acceptance as collateral of values that are difficult to sell on the market or subject to rapid depreciation.
In turn, setting credit limits is the main way to control the formation of the loan portfolio, used to reduce risks and improve long-term viability. By setting credit limits, the proportions of various types of loans are optimized within the entire loan portfolio, taking into account the volume and structure of credit resources. This allows banks to:
- avoid losses that are critical for maintaining solvency from thoughtless concentration of any type of risk;
diversify the loan portfolio in order to reduce concentration and ensure stable profits.
The second block is the selection of specific lending objects for inclusion in the loan portfolio. The selection is carried out, as a rule, on the basis of an assessment of the creditworthiness of borrowers. The general approach to considering real objects of lending involves assessing the area of activity of the borrower, analyzing the intended purpose of funds, choosing the type of loan, and identifying the risks of a credit transaction. An important task is to determine the factors that make it possible to make a preliminary selection of credited objects.
In the case of a positive response, a credit officer conducts an analysis of the creditworthiness of a potential borrower. AT banking practice analysis of the financial condition of the borrower is carried out by the following methods according to its balance sheet and financial statements: vertical analysis; horizontal analysis; determination of the satisfaction of the balance structure; calculation of the creditor's net assets according to the balance sheet; calculation financial ratios and their comparison with standard values.
Unlike traditional approaches to the analysis of the borrower's creditworthiness, which are focused on the study of financial reporting indicators of an enterprise, we believe that in the conditions of market transformations in the Russian economy, it should be supplemented by an analysis of the level of marketing and management at the enterprise. In contrast to borrowers' financial characteristics, management and marketing levels provide a more accurate picture of critical issues such as borrowers' ability to successfully implement projects and ensure sufficient loan turnover. Poor knowledge of the market, the motives of consumer behavior, the prospects for the sale of the offered products or services, and the company's position in the market significantly reduce the competitiveness of borrowers. An analysis of practice has shown that the costs of expertise are incomparable with the possible losses if an enterprise, having received a loan, fails commercially in the market.
The third block - the analysis of the state of the loan portfolio and the management of deviations, to a large extent, has something in common with the operational management of the loan portfolio, namely with the current monitoring of the state of the loan portfolio. The prerogative of the medium-term period remains the development and implementation of measures aimed at improving the quality of the loan portfolio.
Analysis of the state of the loan portfolio, as a rule, consists in monitoring its structure by the movement of loans, by industry or economic sector, by maturity, by degree of credit risk, by interest rates, by loan collateral, repayment and repayment of loans, etc. Such monitoring makes it possible to judge the total risk of the portfolio, the amount of the provision for possible losses on loans, the compliance of the loan portfolio with the goals and strategy of the bank's credit policy. Monitoring of the medium-term period of time makes it possible to identify factors that change the quality and structure of the portfolio.
In cases where in the state of the loan portfolio deviations from the specified credit policy standard, it is necessary to identify the existing deviations and the reasons that give rise to them. Based on the identified data in the medium term, measures are being developed to eliminate them and possible ways to avoid them in the future.
In addition, the state of the loan portfolio predetermines the results of the bank's lending operations, so constant monitoring makes it possible to identify deviations from the specified optimum and develop measures in the medium term to prevent them in the future. Or monitoring indicates the shortcomings of the credit policy and leads to the need for its revision. In this case, bank management should learn the art of early identification of problem loans.
Determination of the optimal loan portfolio of the bank
A citizen of the Russian Federation wants to take a consumer loan in the amount of 700,000 rubles. for 5 years. In the city of H where the citizen lives, there are 3 credit organizations: Home Credit and Finance Bank, Sberbank, VTB-24.To select the most suitable bank, we compare the lending conditions in each of credit institutions.
Consumer loan Home Credit and Finance Bank
Loan up to 250,000 rubles for a period of up to 5 years, without collateral and guarantors.
Requirements for the Client: citizen Russian Federation; permanent source of income; the presence of a home phone; the presence of permanent registration in the region of the Loan; availability of the actual address of residence (postal address) in the region where the Credit is granted.
Loan conditions
* To apply for a loan at a rate of 29.9% per annum, in addition to the list of basic documents, you must provide a Plastic personalized card of any other bank of international payment systems Visa International, MasterCard International, Europay, Maestro and Diners Club International, American Express or a plastic card of Home Credit Bank, otherwise the rate on the loan will be set at 39.9% per annum.
The documents
- Passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation.
Any document from the following list:
- driver's license;
- pensioner's ID;
international passport.
-
insurance certificate State pension insurance.
- Home Credit Bank card.
Certificate of income at the main place of work in the form 2-NDFL / in free form, certified by the employer for the last 3 months.
To confirm income, military personnel must submit a Financial Department Certificate for the last 6 months.
For confirmation additional income part-time (2 documents must be presented together):
- certificate of 2NDFL for at least the last 6 months;
- copy employment contract(work experience under the contract at least 6 months);
- To confirm additional income, pensioners must submit a Pension Certificate and a certificate from the Social Security authorities or from the pension authority of law enforcement agencies.
- Copy work book the Client, certified by the Client's employer.
To confirm employment for military personnel (2 documents must be presented together):
- officer's identity card / certificate of an employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Emergency Situations / military ID of a contract service;
- a certified copy of the contract, a copy of a military ID / certificate or a certificate from the place of service with the obligatory indication of the date of commencement of service and the position held.
- For men under the age of 27, you must also without fail provide a military ID.
Consumer credit of OJSC Sberbank of Russia
This type of consumer loan at Sberbank is suitable for people who need a small amount of money, as well as simple and quick loan processing. Here are its main advantages:
- The loan is issued without collateral and guarantors;
Loan commission is not charged;
For clients who have their own contribution or salary card Sberbank of Russia OJSC, as well as employees of companies accredited by Sberbank, are provided with special lending conditions;
It is possible to issue a Sberbank credit card with a maximum credit limit 200,000 rubles;
It is provided for any purpose in rubles, US dollars or EURO.
Interest rates
Requirements for the borrower:
- age at least 21 years;
age at the time of full repayment of the loan - no more than 55 years for women and 60 years for men;
total work experience of at least 1 year in the last five years, as well as at least 6 months at the current place of work.
The documents:
- Passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation with registration (you can provide a document on temporary registration).
Documents about the current financial condition and employment.
The Bank provides consumer loans in the amount of 50,000 to 3,000,000 rubles, if the loan amount exceeds 750,000 rubles, a guarantor is required.
The borrower and the guarantor must meet the following requirements: citizenship of the Russian Federation; age from 21 years; temporary or permanent registration in the region of the lending branch of the bank; having a permanent job; work experience of at least one year; positive credit history.
Tariffs for cash loans VTB24
| Maximum amount, rub | |
The concept, essence and formation of the loan portfolio of a commercial bank. Methods of regulation and management of credit risk. Loan portfolio diversification. Features of scoring models. Types of lending for individuals and legal entities.By clicking on the "Download archive" button, you will download the file you need for free. To download an archive with a document, enter a five-digit number in the field below and click the "Download archive" button Similar DocumentsThe concept and stages of the formation of a loan portfolio, its structure and management process. Classification of credit risks and their impact on the formation of a portfolio of a commercial bank. Bank loan portfolio analysis. Credit risk management mechanism. thesis, added 07/10/2015 The concept and essence of the loan portfolio of a commercial bank, quality assessment methods. Scoring: concept, application. general characteristics JSCB "Yenisei", the main directions of lending. 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The maximum amount of a loan (including a discounted promissory note) granted to one borrower or a group of related borrowers is defined in the standard: N6 (no more than 25% of the bank's capital), the total amount of large loans should not exceed the bank's capital by more than 10 times (according to the N7 standard ). Standards H9 and H10 determine respectively maximum size a bank loan to its shareholder (shareholder) and its insiders. The rule for diversifying the loan portfolio is as follows: to issue loans to various enterprises from various sectors of the economy in smaller amounts for a shorter period and to a larger number of borrowers. As an additional condition for reducing risk, diversification of loan repayment security should be applied based on a combination of various methods of loan repayment security - collateral, guarantees, guarantees, insurance. Compliance with these rules allows you to compensate for possible losses on one credit transaction with benefits from others. The interest rate policy is an important part of the accounting and loan policy in general. Interest received from loans is the most important part of the bank's income. The level of interest rates on loans depends on a number of factors, general and particular: Inflation rate in the country (for ruble loans); Refinancing rate Central Bank, which plays the role of the official "price of money" in the credit market; Medium interest rate on an interbank loan; LIBOR rate (for foreign currency loans); Average bank interest rate on deposits; The structure of the bank's credit resources: the higher the share of "expensive" resources in the bank's liabilities, the more expensive the loan; Demand for a loan, which is associated with the mood of investors to invest in the real sector of the economy, with the level of profitability of other investment methods (for example, investments in foreign currency, securities); Purpose and conditions of the loan, degree of risk. Therefore, when setting a fee for a loan, the bank takes into account the situation on the loan market and the individual circumstances of the loan transaction, the risk, the loan term, the method of granting the loan, and the security of return. For example, for old customers with a good credit history, a bank may provide preferential loans at a rate below the refinancing rate or below the weighted average rate on loans in this bank. The choice of methods for assessing the creditworthiness and solvency of potential borrowers is also determined by the bank itself. When lending, banks carry out a differentiated approach to borrowers, taking into account their creditworthiness - the ability to pay off loan obligations to the bank on time. The creditworthiness of the borrower is analyzed by the bank to resolve the issue of lending conditions. Analysis is based on data credit history borrower, which the bank can receive from the interbank information system or use your own observations if the borrower has already used loans from this bank. In any case, the bank checks the creditworthiness of the firm or the borrowing bank according to their financial statements for several reporting dates, there are also methods for determining the creditworthiness of citizens based on information about their income. When issuing accounting bill loans, the bank checks the quality of the bill, its compliance with the requirements of the Regulations on transferable and promissory note, the presence of all required details, continuity of the chain of endorsements, etc. Checked also financial position(solvency) of the bearer of the bill and the debtor on it (depending on the form of the accounting credit). The choice of forms of securing the repayment of a loan is the business of the bank itself. Reliable customers who have a long relationship with the bank can receive Bank loan- a loan without collateral, the only guarantee of return of which is loan agreement and good faith of the borrower. The Bank develops and approves the relevant internal documents defining: Its policy on the placement (providing) of funds, as well as accounting policy and approaches to its implementation; Procedures for making decisions on the placement of funds by the bank; Distribution of functions and powers between internal divisions and officials of the bank, including internal rules for the allocation of funds, incl. rules for lending to bank customers. With a positive decision to grant a loan, a loan agreement is drawn up and signed, which reflects the conditions for granting and repaying the loan, the amount of the loan, the procedure for its repayment, the amount loan interest, terms of repayment of the loan and payment of interest, the rights of the bank in the field of control over the implementation of the loan agreement. Pledge obligations, letters of guarantee, guarantees, insurance contracts are drawn up as annexes to the loan agreement. During the execution of the loan agreement, unforeseen problems may arise, for the solution of which it is necessary to change its conditions. Changes in lending conditions and re-issuance of loans can occur both at the initiative of the borrower and at the initiative of the bank. The re-registration of a loan indicates, first of all, a decrease in its quality and an increase in banking risk. One of the conditions that should be provided for when concluding a loan agreement is the right of the bank to terminate the loan agreement ahead of schedule in case of violation by the borrower client stipulated by the agreement obligations. The bank usually requires early repayment loans or collects it in an indisputable manner in the following cases: Untimely submission of balance sheets and other reporting forms to the bank or complete refusal to submit them; Revealing the fact of sale of the pledged property without the consent of the bank; 6. The degree of diversification of the loan portfolio. According to the Bank of Russia, the ratio of the total amount of credit risks to capital (N7) is gradually increasing. At the same time, an analysis of the structure of debt on loans provided by credit institutions shows an increase in the share of loans used to finance construction, as well as mortgage loans for individuals, which together make up 7.3% of the total volume of the loan portfolio of credit institutions in Russia. At the same time, even taking into account that the share of mortgage lending in the total volume of the retail market in Russia is still small, one cannot ignore the emergence of additional risks caused by an increase in lending to the real estate market. Russian banks while still not enough developed system lending for construction and real estate purchases. Thus, it is possible to single out the main types of risks that commercial banks need to address to manage. Special attention when operating in the retail lending segment (Chart 3.2). In terms of the ratio of retail loans to GDP, Russia lags behind many countries, so the potential for growth is high. According to market forecasts consumer lending in our country will continue to develop at a rapid pace: in two years, 30–40% of the population will use loans, and in five to seven years, Russia will reach the level of Western countries (80–90% of the population) in this indicator. Rice. 3.2 - Main types of risks At the same time, the products that are currently most in demand on the market have different growth potential (Fig. 3.3). The biggest expectations of the market are related to two products: mortgage credit lending and credit cards. Mortgage accounts for only 0.3% of GDP. Growth in retail loans in last years was associated mainly with the expansion of consumer lending. In 2005 alone, the volume of retail loans grew by almost $20 billion, or 84% over the year. Mortgages account for about $3 billion or less than 10% of total retail loans, while in Europe the volume of mortgage loans issued is about 70% of GDP, and in the US - 50%. According to analysts, by the end of 2007 the volume of mortgage lending in Russia will increase to $7 billion, and in 2008 it will reach $12 billion. The potential of the mortgage market is 2000-4000% of current figures. This conclusion is based on a comparison of mortgage debt per capita in Eastern Europe and in Russia.
Figure 3.3 - The most demanded products on the market In Russia, the average mortgage debt per capita is only $21. Thus, the burden of Russians with mortgage loans is almost 40 times less than, for example, in Hungary ($931 per person), and 30 times less than in the Czech Republic ($631 per person). Currently, the statistics of issuing bank loans indicates that since 2003, that is, since the beginning of the development of retail lending in Russia, the share of mortgages in the overall structure of the loan market has not actually changed. As of the end of 2005, size mortgage market amounted to approximately $ 3 billion. For comparison, personal loans in Russia account for $ 29.5 billion, total car loans are $ 4.5 billion, and consumer loans- $3 billion. Thus, the share of mortgage lending accounts for less than 10% of the total retail market. Today, about 160 Russian banks offer loans for the purchase of residential real estate. The vast majority of them work under the program of the Agency for Mortgage housing loans(AHML). About 20 banks are developing their own programs. Loans for the purchase of housing currently account for 9.9% of total retail assets, and home mortgage loans proper - 3.3%. small share housing loans due to the following reasons: Slow construction of new housing, the presence of significant housing stock requiring overhaul. According to Federal Service state statistics, one inhabitant of Russia in 2005 accounted for 20.8 square meters. m of housing. Over the past three years, this value has not actually changed, which indicates a limited supply residential areas; Rapid rise in property prices. A significant part of borrowers are forced to refuse mortgage loans requested from the bank, since during the time that passes from the moment the loan is issued until the moment the search for an apartment is completed, prices rise so much that it is necessary to reissue the loan for a large amount; - "inflationary" risks arising from commercial banks: the issuance of mortgage loans for a period of 20-25 years at the current annual inflation rate of 10-11 percent is very risky for bankers; Many borrowers prefer to issue loans for the purchase of real estate in the form of ordinary consumer loans for a relatively short period in order to avoid the very long procedure for obtaining a mortgage loan associated with the collection of many supporting documents and certificates; High level requirements for a potential borrower; There is still a small number of people who can confirm their income with official documents; The high level of interest rates on housing loans and the absence of their noticeable reduction; Banks have problems with cheap long-term resources and the underdevelopment of the system for refinancing domestic credit institutions by the Bank of Russia. Nevertheless, it is obvious that the development of the mortgage market, increased competition among banks, and a well-thought-out public policy aimed at stimulating the population's demand for mortgage loans, as well as the continued growth in real incomes of the population will lead to changes in the structure of loans issued to the population in the direction of increasing the share of mortgage loans. In this regard, at present, to increase the demand from the population for mortgage loans by commercial banks: Reduced mortgage rates; Lending terms are increasing - from a maximum of 5–10 years to 25–30 years; Significantly simplifies the procedure for obtaining a loan, reduces the minimum required package documentation required to apply for a loan. The term for consideration of an application for a loan has been reduced to 2-3 hours compared to a few days earlier, the minimum required set of documents has been reduced from more than 30 to 4 documents; The possibility of refinancing a mortgage loan is provided: the loan term can be reduced or, conversely, increased, and the rates, respectively, reduced; The down payment is canceled or a deferment is granted for its payment. According to the research company Business Vision, about 70% of the population of large Russian cities consider the main criterion for choosing a bank for applying for a mortgage loan low rates for its maintenance. According to the results of a survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation, if the loan rate is halved from the current 14-15% per annum in rubles, the number of potential borrowers will more than triple - from 5% of the population to 17%. AHML expects the rate to be cut to 8% by 2010. So far, even significantly reduced mortgage rates in Russia are quite high compared to developed countries. Yes, in the USA mortgage costs the borrower from 0% to 5-6% per annum, in Europe (Spain) the borrower has to pay about 3-4% per annum. According to expert estimates, now credit cards occupy no more than 7–8% of the retail loan portfolio of Russian banks, while in a developed market this figure should be up to 25%. Market credit cards in Russia is growing at a faster pace, and in the next two or three years their number from today's 5 million may triple. Directions for the development of this product: Optimization of technologies: reduction of credit card issuance terms and improvement of the scoring quality, which is a necessary condition for the further penetration of credit cards into the express lending segment in outlets; Reducing interest rates to just above "traditional" loans, allowing credit cards to compete successfully with multipurpose loans short-term loans; Distribution to customer segments currently covered debit cards(primarily salary projects). Two other products are expected to reach market saturation soon: auto loans and emergency loans. The car loan market is currently one of the most dynamically developing. According to market participants, the share of credit sales has already reached 30% of the total market of new foreign cars, and in the near future may be increased to 40%. At the same time, loan conditions are improving, the range of types of car loans offered by banks is constantly expanding, and the average interest rate is decreasing, which is an indicator of a market close to saturation. Growth in the share of express lending; Appearance of loans with a starting fee of 0%: the client pays only for insurance; The emergence of niche products (for the purchase of additional equipment, etc.) and the development of new programs (buy-back); Further expansion of lending (used cars). Forecasted market trends: Growth in sales of buy-back loans (repurchase); Growth in sales of long-term ruble loans; Growth in sales of loans with low or no down payment; Increasing the terms of lending, reducing the loan rate; Increasing demand for special credit programs(joint programs of a bank, a car manufacturer, a car dealership and an insurance company). The product is in demand on the market, but its further growth will be constrained by partial replacement of credit cards in the segment short-term loans(up to 1 year). It can be expected that such substitution will take on significant proportions as payday credit cards proliferate. Main product development trends: Improving the convenience of service, expanding the number of channels for loan repayment; Liberalization of the conditions for granting loans (reducing the share of secured loans and loans under guarantee); Shifting focus to long-term products (due to increased competition with credit cards in the short-term segment). Express lending at retail outlets and overdraft lending have already begun to be replaced by more functional credit cards. The growth of express lending is still supported by the regions, but this potential should be exhausted in the near future, especially with the spread of payroll credit cards. Overdraft lending reached its maximum development at the beginning of 2003 (6.2% of the market), but then its role decreased (October 2006 - 4.9%). As a result, the active filling of loan portfolios with a whole range of retail products at large banks will gradually give way to a clearer positioning in the market and sometimes curtailment of initial programs. As a result, banks that will be able to: Offer the client a technological and service advantage (functionality of products, convenience and availability of sales and service channels); To withstand falling rates, that is, to ensure high efficiency of credit operations and low level of losses. Thus, the development of such areas of consumer lending as express lending, credit card lending, mortgage lending and car lending should be a priority for banks that are committed to maintaining a long-term competitive advantage in retail lending.
2022 | |
