1. What is the demographic situation?
The demographic situation is a complex quantitative characteristic and qualitative assessment of demographic processes (birth, death, migration, marriage, divorce) occurring in a certain territory: their trends, outcomes certain period and consequences.
Indeed, the age-sex structure of the population is a “imprinted demographic history”, since it reflects “demographic waves” - ups and downs in the population that can be traced through generations. For example, as a result of wars, not only their direct participants perish, but the total population also decreases, since the dead cannot give birth in the future. Also, biases towards the female population testify to the soldiers, in which mostly men died.
3. Choose the correct answer. The younger population lives: a) in the central regions of Russia; b) in the regions of the Far North.
4. In your opinion, why is knowledge about the age composition of the country's population necessary?
Knowledge of the age composition of the population allows us to better understand the needs of the population, for example, if a region has a large young population, then they have an increasing need for kindergartens, schools, there is a need for work, and therefore for new enterprises; if the elderly population predominates, then there is more need for social services and polyclinics. Also, knowledge of the age composition of the population allows making economic forecasts, for example, it is possible to prevent the problems of economic stagnation due to the effect of the aging of the nation in advance.
5. Name the features of the age and sex structure of the population of Russia.
In Russia, there are a number of features of the age and sex structure of the population. In particular, the overall sex structure is dominated by women, with a shift towards the female population occurring after the age of 32. As age increases, gender imbalance increases. The age structure is dominated by the able-bodied return. Also in Russia, demographic waves are clearly visible - an echo of the Great Patriotic War (population declines: 70-65 years, 40-45 years, 10-15 years).
6. What differences in the age composition of the population are observed in certain regions of Russia? What is the reason for this?
Age composition The population of the regions of Russia differs significantly. The average age of the population in the five “youngest” regions of Russia (R. Tyva, R. Altai, Chechen R., R. Dagestan, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), according to at least, 8.5 years lower than in the five oldest ones (Yaroslavl region, Tver region, Vladimir region, Ryazan region, Kaluga region).
7. Find on age and sex pyramid points corresponding to your age, the age of your parents, grandparents and other relatives.
The population aged 14-15 is: 700 thousand (M) and 680 thousand (F); aged 45-48 years: 850 thousand (M), 1000 thousand (F); aged: 70-75 years: 360 thousand (M), 750 thousand (F).
8. Can it be argued that life expectancy in Russia largely depends on the way of life? Do you think life expectancy can increase in Russia? What does society and the individual need to do to achieve this?
The life expectancy of a person depends on many different factors, and is determined not only by his hereditary and biological characteristics. The duration of a person's life also depends on the social conditions of life (life, work, food, rest, lifestyle). Wherein social conditions much more important than biological ones. Thus, life expectancy depends on the efforts of society aimed at improving health and preventing mortality. Life expectancy is much higher economically developed countries. Life expectancy in Russia may increase if social institutions develop, primarily affordable, high-quality and free medicine. In the same way, a person himself can affect his life expectancy, it is only necessary to follow the rules of a healthy lifestyle (do not use drugs, lead an active lifestyle, monitor nutrition and daily routine).
9. In a message to the Federal Assembly in May 2006, the President of Russia called the demographic problem one of the most acute problems of our time. As tasks aimed at overcoming the demographic crisis, the following were named: 1) reducing mortality; 2) effective migration policy; 3) increase in the birth rate. Express your opinion on this issue. In your opinion, what effective measures should be taken to solve the demographic problem in our country?
To resolve demographic problems in Russia, it is necessary to urgently take the following measures: aimed at increasing the birth rate - social protection families - solution housing issue, building new kindergartens and schools, supporting mothers and increasing child allowances; aimed at reducing mortality: the development of free and affordable medicine, promotion and support of healthy lifestyles; aimed at increasing life expectancy: reducing the working week, increasing the standard of living, by eradicating poverty, supporting the elderly population, increasing pensions, reducing the retirement age.
It may very well be that at the very moment when you begin to read this essay, a very significant event will take place on Earth: the six billionth inhabitant will be born (if not already born). According to the calculations of demographers, it is in 1999 that the population of the Earth should pass through a round and very solid figure: 6,000,000,000. Is it a lot or a little?
Two and a half hectares
Six billion of anything is very hard to imagine. But even without much imagination, one can understand that the number of people on the planet is simply colossal. If the live weight is approximately 300 million tons. And if you take and divide the area of \u200b\u200bthe earth's land by the population of the planet, then for each person there will be only two and a half hectares of territory of any territory, including mountains, glaciers, deserts, swamps and other inconveniences. M-yes, sparsely, Some more time will pass and there will be nowhere to turn at all. Can this happen? Is it realistic to calculate how many of us there will be after “some time” for example, in the 21st century? And how many generally SHOULD be on planet Earth?
Before trying to answer these difficult questions, let's figure out how many of us have been so far.
According to some estimates, 100 billion people have managed to live on Earth in the entire history of civilization. Purely chronologically, the situation was in the following way. In the thousandth year BC, the number of intelligent inhabitants of the planet Earth was about 100 million people (this is the population of present-day Nigeria). By the beginning of the era, the world's population had doubled (now about the same number of people live in Indonesia alone), but, of course, they did not rest on their laurels and moved further into the future at the same unhurried speed a little more than ten people per hour. During the first millennium of the new era, the increase was again one hundred million. In the second millennium, the pace gradually accelerates. By the middle of the 17th century, 500 million people had already accumulated on Earth (this is about half of present-day India), and around 1804, earthlings “printed out” their first billion. Note: civilization has been moving towards this figure for many millennia. You can’t say about the further process: “I was going.” In the 20th century, the history of population took off at a gallop. 1927 second billion. 1960 third. Only 14 years pass and there are already four billion people on Earth. 13 years later in 1987 five billion. And in another 12 years this is our time, the year 1999, welcome to the planet, the six billionth inhabitant!
Did you pay attention? Not only has the world's population doubled in less than forty years, but the period of growth of each new billion is reduced: each time it decreases by a year. Will it really continue like this: the seventh billion in 11 years, the eighth in 10 ... Remaining within the framework of this linear logic, it is easy to calculate that, starting from 2064, humanity, having become sixteen billion, will add a billion a year, and then more. Horror!
I just want to reassure readers. Nothing of the kind is likely to happen. Population dynamics tricky thing, it is subject to very complex mathematics (and, of course, not only mathematics), and it cannot be approached with a linear measure.
Phantom of catastrophe
In past centuries, demographic problems did not enjoy special attention scientists and general public. The very word "demography" was introduced into circulation by the Frenchman Achille Guillard only in 1855.
And yet, let's give the people of the past justice: they have been engaged in "practical demography" since ancient times. Population censuses were carried out as far back as ancient Babylon on this account, the corresponding clay tablets have been preserved. And in ancient Rome, “sensuses” as Latin was called statistical accounting in general and population censuses in particular were an indispensable part of state office work. After all, you need to know how much where a person lives and what taxes to collect from them. History has preserved many Roman records with such, for example, records: Helvetiorum censu habito, repertus est numerus milium CX, which means "the number of Helvetians, according to the census, turned out to be 110 thousand."
In modern times, the first census took place in the colony of New France (Quebec) in 1665. The United States conducted its first census in 1790. Thirty years later, the time has come for censuses in Italy, Spain, England, Ireland, Austria, and France. In 1851, a population census was held in China, and ten years later, in Russia. Speaking of demography, especially in the Year of the Sixth Billion, one cannot help but recall the pioneer of this field of science, the English economist and priest Thomas Robert Malthus. Just as the world's population was approaching the first billion—namely, in 1798—the thirty-two-year-old scientist anonymously published his famous Essay on the Law of Population, in which he made the following statement:
“The population, if not controlled, increases exponentially. Means of subsistence increase only in an arithmetic progression. Even a superficial acquaintance with numbers will show that the first sequence is incommensurable with the second.
Malthus's theory gained considerable popularity. For the past two centuries, it has caused serious controversy. Soviet propaganda for many decades branded this theory as "an anti-scientific system of views on population", and called Malthus himself only as a "reactionary economist".
Meanwhile, to understand the fears of Malthus purely humanly is very simple. He was troubled by the following speculative conclusion: the population of the world is growing faster than it produces the means of subsistence. Another thing is that two centuries ago (yes, even now) practice did not really confirm this idea, and Malthus's reasoning was more of a theoretical nature.
According to the logic of the British scientist, the population of England was to double every 25 years, and by 1950 this country should have had 704 million inhabitants, while its territory can only feed 77 million. Therefore, it is necessary to take some decisive measures to contain the population, to "control" population growth. However, history has shown that not everything is so simple with the notorious arithmetic and geometric progressions. By 1950, the population of the United Kingdom had just reached 50 million people. And in our time, the population of Great Britain less than 59 million quite allows this country to feed itself.
As for the future... What if Malthus is right in the long run? Suddenly, these progressions will really become “incommensurable” (No matter how much the Marxists vilify the “reactionary economist”, but, by the way, Friedrich Engels, almost a century after the appearance of Malthus’s work, also paid tribute to the problem of the demographic crisis. In 1881 he remarked: “The abstract possibility of such the numerical growth of mankind, which will make it necessary to put a limit to this growth, of course, exists.")
Let's remember the expression "growth limit" and fast forward to the 60s of our century in order to understand the current situation, it is very important to understand the demographic mood of that time. It was in the 1960s that people with particular acuteness noticed the danger of overpopulation and, as it were, re-read Malthus. The fact is that humanity has thrown out the focus. Neither on the eve of the Second World War, nor even more so in the first decade after it, there were any especially terrible demographic forecasts. On the contrary, in most developed countries it was believed that the rate of population growth was declining.
And suddenly it was perceived precisely as “suddenly” a sharp jump: even “yesterday” (in 1930) two billion people lived on the planet, and “today” (in 1960) after the Great Depression, a terrible world war and a whole a series of local wars a billion more. The term "population explosion" has become one of the most popular.
Of course, there were explanations: the birth rate was growing steadily on the planet (especially rapidlyin developing countries ah), the progress of medicine and health care has led to a reduction in infant mortality and an increase in life expectancy, many deadly diseases have receded before antibiotics. However, the explanations for all their optimistic coloring were not very reassuring. The logic was simple: if high rates population growth will continue, neither medicine nor healthcare will save it humanity will double several times more, deplete natural resources, completely pollute the environment with its waste, and Malthus, of course, a big hello a catastrophe will strike.
“Move over! Move over!"
Perhaps the first work in science fiction on the topic of the demographic crisis was Kurt Vonnegut's "black" comedy "The Big Journey Up and Beyond", released in 1954. There, indeed, it was about the overpopulation of the planet, only the reason for it was not the unbridled growth in the number of people, but the revolutionary successes in the field of biology, which led to a sharp increase in life expectancy.
In 1966, Harry Harrison's famous demographic thriller Move Over! Move over!", depicting the eerie future of overcrowded New York at the end of the century. It is curious that the author was almost not mistaken in the quantitative forecast: there are now, if not seven, as Harrison assumed, but still six billion; however, something is not visible that America absorbs one hundred percent of the planet's resources, which due to the rapid growth of the population was feared by the science fiction writer. And the terrible overcrowding of large cities is somehow not very felt.
In 1968, among many others another novel on the theme of the demographic crisis, which quickly became a classic of the genre, Standing on Zanzibar by John Brunner. It described a more distant future, 2020, by which time there were so many people on the planet (just a nightmare almost nine billion people!) That if everyone was given two square feet of land, then all of humanity would fill the island of Zanzibar upright. The image is bright, but if you think about it, it doesn't say anything special. Let's take our time and the current population of mankind and allocate to everyone living on Earth about the same amount as Branner allotted (well, a little less a square with a side of forty centimeters, it is quite comfortable to stand), then the entire population of the world will "calmly" be located on the territory of Moscow. Get "Standing in Moscow." So what? Muscovites, however, it is a pity ...
In our, domestic science fiction of that time, there were practically no works about the “overproduction of the population” threatening the world. Soviet ideological thought decided that the threat of overpopulation is an invention of bourgeois futurology, no demographic cataclysms are foreseen in the future (and if it is foreseen, then not here) and in general all global problems will be solved through the triumph of socialism and the subsequent transition to communism, under which " all sources of social wealth will flow in full flow ”and finally harmonious interaction between man and nature will be ensured. Even in the works of the Strugatsky brothers, in my opinion, the best of Russian science fiction writers, there is not a trace of overpopulation. In the story "Interns", the action of which refers approximately to end of XXI century, it is simply and clearly stated: on Earth four billion people, half people of the communist tomorrow, half the Western world. The story was published in 1962. The world will cross the four billion milestone in just 12 years...
But let's leave fantasy and return to real world. By the end of the turbulent decade of the 1960s, scientists' concern about the future of the planet - primarily demographic - reached a high pitch, which is clearly seen in the example of the Club of Rome. This international social organization, established in 1968, aimed at conducting large-scale socio-economic research and mobilizing the efforts of mankind to solve global problems. Followed by reports of scientists different countries Club of Rome, the first of which are "Limits to Growth" (1972), written by a group of American scientists led by D. Meadows, "Humanity at the Crossroads" by M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel (1974), "Revision international order» J. Tinbergen (1976), made a lot of noise, outlining very gloomy prospects for the further development of civilization and putting forward rather tough recommendations to curb growth. What is worth at least the epigraph to one of the chapters of the report "Humanity at the Crossroads": "The world is sick with cancer, and this cancer is a person."
The authors of the reports proposed to solve the demographic problem in a distinctly Malthusian way by controlling population growth. However, if industrial production continues to grow unchecked, then tight birth control will still not eliminate crisis situation because there is no escape from the threat of depletion of non-renewable resources and environmental pollution. Where is the exit? Perhaps a global catastrophe is inevitable and nothing can be done? The D. Meadows group believed that the catastrophe could still be prevented, but for this it was necessary to radically change modern tendencies development of mankind: to move from the unrestrained growth of population and capital to “zero growth” and achieve “global equilibrium” such a state of civilization when “the basic material needs of every person living on earth will be satisfied and everyone will receive equal opportunities for the realization of their individual human potential."
Of course, the theory of "zero growth" was immediately picked up by science fiction writers, it is found in many works to this day, however, in fact, this idea did not last so long. Already Jan Tinbergen, the author of the third report to the Club of Rome, came to the conclusion that humanity will successfully cope with the troubles that threaten it, by no means resorting to such extreme means as slowing down, let alone stopping growth.
In the 70s, the horror pictures that await humanity were innumerable. Population explosion continued, the population of the world grew frighteningly fast, and this alone, it seemed to many, deprived the people of the planet of any hope for a normal future. We can recall the works of the West German futurist G. Schneider, who talked a lot about the explosive situation in international relations generated by the demographic revolution. Two hundred thousand people added to the world every day, he wrote, is the population of an entire city. Every week a new city the size of Munich, Warsaw or Kyiv appears on earth every month a country like Denmark, Ecuador or Guatemala every three years a country like the USA or the USSR every five years another South America , Western Europe or Africa.
It was in the 70s that the expression "golden billion" flashed on the pages of various publications. As many ecologists believed then, the planet Earth can withstand about a billion intelligent beings, but if there are more earthlings, this is a direct path to resource depletion, irreversible changes in the environment and, thus, to disaster. Well, okay, "golden billion", let's say. But after all, even then the Earth lived four times more people. What to do with three billion “non-golden” intelligent inhabitants who suddenly became superfluous? And who will decide these are “golden” (at ease, you can smoke), but these are superfluous (str-r-swarm! to the exit with things)? ..
Not a disaster, but a transition
It's time to finally acquaint readers with the concept of "demographic transition". This concept reflects the long-standing fact that at a certain stage in the development of a country, region, or humanity as a whole, there is a sharp increase in the population growth rate, then the rate drops just as sharply, and the population reaches a stabilized regime. The most important thing here is to determine the beginning and extent of a "certain stage", to realize the quantitative parameters of stabilization and, if possible, to express all this with a consistent mathematical model.
According to the American scientist Stephen Gillett, the demographic transition began in the 18th century, and it took place first in France, then spread throughout Europe, and in our century covered the whole world. At the same time, the number of people on Earth does not depend much on political will or economic circumstances - it is subject to natural regulators. Culture and technology also act as regulators, moreover the demographic transition itself motivates people to create new economic and social structures requiring birth control.
Great Britain provides a classic example of a demographic transition. During the 18th century, the population of this country doubled, by the middle of the 19th century it doubled again, and then the growth rate began to decline. In 1900 there were about 40 million people in the United Kingdom, but in the first half of the century there were only ten million, and in the second half even less than ten million. According to modern forecasts, by the middle of the 21st century, the number of inhabitants of Great Britain will not only not increase, but even decrease somewhat, so it can be argued that the demographic curve here has become a horizontal straight line, the population has stabilized and will stay at the level of 56 58 million people for a long time.
From understanding the characteristics of the demographic transition to selected countries it is not so easy to go to global characteristics: there are too many factors to consider, a non-trivial mathematical model. Such a model was built by our well-known scientist Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa readers know him well from the TV show “Obvious Incredible”. The theory of population growth by S.P. Kapitsa was published last year and immediately became a notable event in demographic science it really explains what happened to the world population in the past, provides a clear analysis of current trends and allows you to confidently predict demographic dynamics for a long time.
Here is what S. P. Kapitsa himself writes:
“The duration of the transition is only ... 84 years, but during this time, which is 1/50,000 of the entire history of mankind, there will be a fundamental change in the nature of its development. Despite the brevity of the transition, this time will outlive 1/10 of all people who have ever lived.
The conclusion about the stabilization of the world's population after the demographic transition is significant... The limit of population growth should be sought not in the global lack of resources, but in the systemic patterns of human development. The conclusion to which the model leads is the general independence of global growth from external conditions, a conclusion that is in every contradiction with conventional wisdom. Moreover, until now and, apparently, in the foreseeable future, such resources will be available and will allow humanity to go through a demographic transition in which the population will increase by only 2.5 times. This conclusion can be formulated as the principle of the demographic imperative, as a consequence of the immanence of the systemic growth of humanity.
We can say that in some sense we were lucky. Modern people happened to live in the midst of a short and very vigorous demographic transition of all mankind. Apparently, the most acute phase is already over, and ahead of us lies a steady decline in the rate of growth of mankind, and in a few decades by the middle of the 21st century the population of the Earth will stabilize at the level of about 10, maximum 12 billion people. (This is exactly the same as demographic forecast United Nations Population Division, according to which by 2050 there will be from 7.3 to 10.7 billion people on the planet.)
The conclusions of the theory are confirmed by the practice of the last decade. The passions around the "imminent" demographic catastrophe have subsided. Population statistics look quite encouraging. The growth rate of the world's population, which in the 60s and early 70s was kept at the level of two percent per year (mainly due to developing countries, where it reached even 3.5 percent), fell to 1.7 percent at the beginning of the decade , and in 1995 2000 it was one percent and a third. We are moving into the future at a rate of 9,000 people per hour, and this rate is declining.
"Old" new world
As we already know, there are objective natural causes leading to the stabilization of the global population, however, humanity itself has made considerable efforts, especially in Asian countries. (Not in vain, not in vain, the authors of the reports to the Club of Rome frightened the world with terrible pictures of overpopulation!) Back in 1948, Japan, without waiting for the theories of the demographic transition, announced a birth control program. However, the overall slowdown in growth in Asia is largely due to tight population policy China the most populated country in the world. Since the slogan "One child per family" was put forward and adopted as a guideline in China, the growth rate has fallen to 1.4 percent, and there is reason to believe that it will soon fall to zero. In India second largest country world progress is not so noticeable. The population there continues to grow quite rapidly. According to modern forecasts, by the middle of the next century, India will overtake China by about 50 million people and become the world leader in terms of population. In total, more than three billion people will live in India and China (a third of the world's population!).
Generally speaking, the large-scale demographic future of the planet is seen quite clearly from ours today. This is a moderate prognosis. In fifty years Asia's population will be over five billion, Africa's will more than double to nearly two billion. The population of the Americas will greatly exceed one billion. But old Europe will add quite a bit in numbers: a little more than 600 million people will live in it.
56 countries will experience negative growth (that is, the death rate will exceed the birth rate) these are all European countries, China and Japan. From a demographic point of view, there is nothing unusual here it can be considered that the demographic transition in such countries has ended and they have moved into a stable state. However, Russia stands apart here. Sadly, but last years our death rate incredibly exceeds the birth rate: for every thousand inhabitants, 9 people are born and 16 die. Minus 0.7 percent growth per year is not stability, but a demographic catastrophe in a single country. If the trend continues, then by 2050 Russia in terms of population will move from seventh to fourteenth place in the world (leaving Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam ahead): 120 million people will live in it.
It is safe to say that in the 21st century, the majority of the world's population will live in cities: the process of urbanization began a long time ago, and there is no reason to believe that it will end soon. Already now, at the end of the century, almost half of the world's population lives in cities, that is, a little less than three billion people (!), although half a century ago, the share of urban residents was not even a third.
Of course, many factors will influence the growth of the population and its distribution on the planet, and not everything can be guessed or correctly estimated in advance. Take the climatic conditions. It is possible that as a result of global warming, the level of the world's oceans will begin to rise at least a little, but. But almost two-thirds of the world's population lives on the coasts well, if not quite near the sea-ocean, then at least within the 60-kilometer coastal strip. Moreover, huge numbers of people in Asia and Africa live in lowlands and river deltas. If the ocean begins to advance, this will lead to mass migrations, which will affect the demographic situation in the most unpredictable way. Already in our time, migration due to wars, adverse economic conditions, natural disasters have led to the fact that 125 million people (more than two percent of the world's population) have been forced to leave their countries and settle far from home. These are data from 1994 most likely very incomplete ...
Another important process that is already underway and will become a major factor in the lives of people in the next century is the aging of the world, that is, the increase in the proportion of older people in the total population: a direct result of medical advances. There are currently approximately 66 million people over the age of eighty (less than 1 percent) living on the planet. Fifty years from now, their number will increase by six times and, approaching 400 million, will be at least four percent. The number of "oldest" , that is, those over a hundred, will increase even 16 times to 2.2 million.
The world is still very young in terms of age. Now the number of children on the planet (30 percent) is three times the number of older people (10 percent). Another fifty years will pass, and the situation at least in developed countries will be reversed: there will be twice as many elderly as children. The "oldest" country will be Spain, and the "youngest" continent will still be Africa.
We must think that the concept of the term of human life will change quite a lot. The average life expectancy will approach 90 years, and the maximum, quite possibly, will be 130 years.
OK then. Demographic transition, urbanization, aging of the world... But what about the "golden billion"? There are six times as many of us now as there are supposed to be, and in half a century it will be ten times more. The fact that there is enough space for everyone is understandable. But is there enough food? How many people can feed the Earth?
There are a variety of answers to this question. Let's start with the fact that the "golden billion" is still an ominous propaganda trick, nothing more. In addition to the “progressions” of Thomas Malthus, there is such a thing as scientific and technological progress, and this includes the achievements of genetics and biotechnology, and the prevention of plant and animal diseases, and the successes of agriculture (remember, for example, the “Green Revolution”), and the fact that humanity is increasingly accepting the rules of environmental behavior. It may not be very widely known, but over the past 25 30 years, the growth of world food production has outpaced population growth by about 16 percent. It is another matter that far from everyone gets the food produced in increasing quantities: at least a quarter of earthlings live from hand to mouth, and almost half of them experience chronic hunger, from which millions of people die every year, but this sad problem, strictly speaking, has nothing to do with demography.
It has long been clear to serious scientists that the Earth will feed 6, 8, and 12 billion people. According to Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa, "with reasonable assumptions, the Earth can support up to 15 25 billion people for a long time."
Now there is every reason to believe that when the demographic transition is completed for the whole of humanity, the world population will stabilize at a level obviously below the critical one, no matter how this “criticality” is defined. So if we use the epithet “golden”, then we should talk about the “golden ten” of billions that will live on the planet in the 21st century and in subsequent centuries. (Note that the UN Population Division's "average" projection for 2150 is 10.8 billion.)
Did you look at your watch when you started this essay? How long did it take you to read? Twenty minutes, thirty at most? During this time, four and a half thousand people have been added to the planet Earth - a whole village. Let's say to them: "You are welcome! Make yourself comfortable. Enough space for everyone."
Regional competition of research works
"My homeland is Syktyvdin"
Demographic portrait of the school
10th grade student
MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school"
Syktyvdinsky district
Republic of Komi
Supervisor:
Budina Dia Vasilvna
geography teacher
Zelenets 2012
Content:
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………3
National composition……………………………………………………………7
Place of birth of students ………………………………………………… 8
Number of children in the families of students ……………………………………..8
The field of activity of parents of students ………………………………..9
Professional preferences of students……………………………...9
Hobbies of students ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Participation in extracurricular life……………………………………………………10
Population Data Sources………………………………………………………………4
Dynamics of the number of students of MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school"…………………..4
The gender composition of school students…………………………………………………..5
Age composition of school students ……………..…………………….…………6
The results of the survey of students………….…..………………………………7
Dynamics of Potential First Graders……………………………………………………………………………10
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………..11
Literature…………………………………………………………………………………12
Introduction.
This work is of a research nature and is devoted to identifying the features demographic situation Zelenets secondary school.
The material was collected from September to December 2011 in the form of studying the documents of the rural settlement "Zelenets" and MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school", material on the demographic situation in Russia, the Komi Republic, as well as questioning students.
Purpose of the study: drawing up a demographic portrait of our school, as well as drawing students' attention to demographic problems in Russia and the Komi Republic on the example of the school demographic situation.
Tasks:
To study the age, national, gender composition of students;
Compile questionnaires to analyze the demographic situation in our school;
Conduct a survey of school students;
Conduct statistical processing of the collected material;
To draw the attention of students to the study of their pedigree;
To reveal the attitude of teenagers to family planning;
Familiarize students with this work.
Relevance of the topic: Currently in Russia and the Komi Republic there is a very difficult demographic situation, which leads to a decrease in the population, this problem has affected our village and school. The school reduced the number of students, the number of classes and the number of classes-sets.
Object of study: learning schools.
Subject of study: dynamics of the number of students, composition of students. .
Methods:
Analysis of literary sources.
Conducting a survey.
Processing of survey data.
Compilation and analysis of tables and diagrams.
1. Sources of population data
In Ancient Russia, state censuses began to be carried out from the 2nd half of the 13th century on the initiative of the Mongols in order to record the population to determine the amount of tribute. After the formation of a centralized state, so-called "scribe books" were started in some places, in which there was information about the population, descriptions of cities, villages, estates, churches. The object of taxation was originally land, productively used on the farm - plow. In the 17th century, the yard became the unit of taxation, and household censuses became the main form of accounting. In addition to household censuses, nationwide censuses also took place in some territories. The Decree of Peter I dated November 26, 1718 marked the beginning of state audits, of which 10 were carried out from 1719 to 1858.
The first general census of the population of Russia was carried out as of February 9, 1897. In Soviet times, censuses were conducted as of August 28, 1920, March 15, 1923, and general censuses - as of December 17, 1926, January 6, 1937, January 17, 1939, January 15, 1959, January 15, 1970, January 17, 1979 and January 12, 1989. After the collapse of the USSR, the next Russian population census planned for 1999 was postponed due to financial instability after the 1998 crisis. It was held only on October 9, 2002. The next census of the population of Russia was conducted in October 2010.
In October 2010, 356 students studied at our school, in October 2012 - 370 students.
To compile a demographic portrait, a survey was conducted, in which 70 students of grades 8-11 took part, we also analyzed the annual statistical reports of the school, studied the archival material "Summary sheet of student progress by years" from 1985 to 2012. Based on these materials, we have this work to study the demographic situation in MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school".
Dynamics of the number of students in MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school"
In 2012, the school has 370 students, but the analysis of archival documents and statistical reports allows us to conclude that the number of students in the period from 1985 to 2012 has changed a lot.
Starting from the 1984-85 academic year, the number of students increased by 305 people by the 1994-1995 academic year and amounted to 785 people and 36 classes - sets, the average class size was 29 people. The reason for this growth in the number of students was that in 1984 the Zelenets poultry farm was opened, and mainly young people moved to Zelenets for permanent residence, which affected a sharp increase in birth rates. The school building, which was put into operation in 1976, did not accommodate such a number of children, the educational process took place in two shifts, the old school building, which was located in the lower part of the village, as well as the dance hall of the house of culture, were used to organize training. The administration of the school and the village council, together with the parents, have repeatedly appealed to the authorities government controlled with a request to build a new school. The construction of the new school began in 1990, and on September 1, 1992, the new school with 1,120 seats opened its doors to its students.
From the 1995-96 academic year, the number of students gradually decreased and by the 2005-06 academic year it had decreased by more than 2 times compared to 1985 and amounted to 350 people. The decrease in the number of students is primarily due to a decrease in the birth rate in the 90s, as well as migration processes. In the 90s, people began to leave Zelenets due to lack of work, the most important enterprises on the territory of the settlement were in a difficult situation. economic situation there were job cuts. Also during this period, several families left for Germany. Among them were the teaching schools.
In recent years, the number of students has gradually begun to increase (2009-2010, 2011-2012). From 2009 - 10 academic year in connection with the reorganization of the Sludskaya and Mandachskaya secondary schools into secondary schools, children from these settlements study in our school in grades 10-11, and in 2012, with the closure of the Mandachskaya secondary school, students of the main school study at our school. In the coming years, an increase in the number of students is predicted in connection with the commissioning of a new residential building in the village. Zelenets.
Table 1.
Number of students in Zelenets secondary school
Academic years
Number of students
Number of classes-sets
1984-1985
480
1989-1990
691
1994-1995
785
36
1995-1996
726
1999-2000
552
2004-2005
362
2005-2006
350
2009-2010
362
2010-2011
356
2011-2012
364
2012-2013
370
3. Gender composition of school students
We also analyzed the ratio of girls and boys among school students over the past 8 years and saw that in all these years there has been an excess of girls over boys in school, which generally reflects the gender structure of the population of Russia, the Komi Republic and the Syktyvdinsky region. The largest preponderance of girls over boys at the senior level of education: in the 10th grade, 12 girls and 3 boys (80%: 20%), in the 11th grade, 13 girls (100%).
table 2
The ratio of girls and boys
Academic year
Girls
boys
2004-2005
182
180
2005-2006
180
170
2006-2007
192
158
2007-2008
189
168
2008-2009
186
172
2009-2010
195
167
2010-2011
185
171
2011-2012
190
174
2012-2013
193
177
4. Age composition of school students
According to the school's report as of September 1, 2012 on the age composition of the population of students, it can be seen that most students were born in 2003 and 2004.
Table 3
Age composition of students
Year of birth
Quantity
Quantity in %
1993
0,8
1994
3.7
1995
3,7
1996
5,4
1997
5,1
1998
9,7
1999
9,4
2000
10,2
2001
9,9
2002
10,7
2003
43
11,6
2004
43
11,6
2005
11,3
2006
0.8
Total
370
100
Number of students by level of education:
Stage 1 - 174 people, Stage 2 - 168 people, Stage 3 - 28 people.
Survey results
5.1. National composition
We do not determine the national composition of all students of the school, but only of the respondents, since this information is not available in official sources. According to the results of the analysis of respondents by nationality, Russians predominate in the school - 57%.
Table 4
National composition of respondents
Nationality
Number of respondents
Quantity %
Russians
Komi
28,5
Chuvash
Ukrainians
Azerbaijanis
Belarusian
Some children find it difficult to determine their belonging to a particular nationality, since the parents have different nationalities.
5.2 Place of birth of students of the school
According to the diagram, we see that most of the students of the school were born in the village of Zelenets and the village of Parcheg, others were born in Syktyvkar and others settlements RK, only three respondents came from outside the republic. Thus, the majority of students have local roots.
5.3 Number of children in families of students
Table 5
Number of children in the family
8th grade
Grade 9
Grade 10
Grade 11
Total
One
Two
Three
Four
Six or more
Mostly in the families of students there are one or two children, they account for 24.2% and 57.1%, respectively. Large families of the respondents (three or more children) account for only 18.7%.
At the same time, children from large families, of which there are 24 in the settlement, are currently studying at our school.
Table 6
Number of large families and children in such families
years
number of large families
the number of children in large families
at 1.01. 2006
no data
at 1.01. 2007
at 1.01. 2008
at 1.01. 2009
at 1.01. 2010
at 1.01. 2011
The largest families: Klymenko (parents and 8 children), the Kolegov family (parents and 7 children), in other large families, 3 children each.
To the question "How many children did the students want to have?" The answers were as follows: 1-2 children - 51 students, 2-3 - 8, 3 or more - 2, do not know - 6, do not want - 3.
5.4 Sphere of activity of parents of students
Service sector - 20 parents;
SYK - 18 parents;
OJSC "Zelenetskaya Poultry Farm" - 16 parents;
Education - 15 parents;
Housewives - 3 parents;
Pensioners - 4 parents;
They also work in medicine, housing and communal services, social sphere and management.
It is typical for our settlement that most of the parents of students have a permanent place of work: these are institutions of the service sector of the Ezhvinsky district and the city of Syktyvkar, as well as the most large enterprises near the settlement - SYK and Zelenetskaya poultry farm. The most common occupations of parents are salespeople, drivers, ZPF and SYK workers. The level of unemployment among the parents of students is low, this is due to the favorable geographical position of the village, developed infrastructure.
5.5 Professional preferences of students of MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school"
One of the questions in the questionnaire was “What profession would you like to get?” It turned out that the guys want to master various professions.
Table 7
Professions
Number of students
the medicine
the hairdresser
programmer
civil engineer
police
economist
teacher
sportsman
auto mechanic
veterinarian, investigator, electrician
1 pers.
journalist, musician, artist, locksmith
1 pers.
undecided
A lot of career guidance work is carried out at the school, students are guided in the world of professions. School students are thinking about their future.
Estimated level of education: higher - 60% (6 students plan to receive at least 2 higher educations), secondary special -40%. Students understand that in modern conditions The country needs educated, highly qualified personnel.
Student hobbies
In their free time, students are engaged in various additional types activities according to their interests: sports, creativity, the Internet. For classes outside of school hours, a cultural center, a children's youth center, a music school, a library, a ski base, as well as institutions of additional education in the Ezhvinsky district offer their services.
Among the respondents, hobbies were distributed as follows: sports - 19 people, music school - 3 people, vocals - 2 people, Lingua - 2 people, drawing - 2 people, mugs - 3 people, reading - 3 people, different hobbies - 12 people, walking -21 people, nothing -6 people. Grade 11 students are engaged in self-education and preparation for the exam.
5.7 Participation in the extracurricular life of the school
54.3% of respondents are constantly involved in the extracurricular life of the school, sometimes 17.1%, do not participate at all - 28.6%. Most of those who do not participate in public life schools for 8th grade students.
Dynamics of Potential First Graders
How many first graders will come to school in the future?
In a geography lesson with 9th grade students, we studied the passport of a rural settlement, analyzed the data and concluded: how many students will come to the first grade in the next 5 years.
Table 9
Potential first graders
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
The number of children aged 0 to 6 years -339.
We see that government reform with maternity capital had a noticeable impact on the birth rate in the settlement, people had faith in the future.
Conclusion.
The deep socio-economic crisis of the 1990s affected the number of students in our school.
The demographic portrait of our school reflects the general demographic situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan, Russia as a whole.
In our school, the female team prevails over the male. This trend is also observed in Russia and the republic.
The national composition of the population is diverse, but Russians predominate.
In the next 5 years, the number of students at the school will not change much
According to the results of our research, in about 10-12 years, the number of students will increase again when the generation of 15-year-olds grows up. By that time, today's teenagers will have entered their childbearing years.
Literature
Internet sources (ru .wikipedia .org /wiki /).
Passport of the rural settlement "Zelenets".
Preliminary results of the population census in the Komi Republic
Alphabetical book of MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school".
Archival documents of MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school".
Statistical reports of MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school".
PROJECT PLAN
"DEMOGRAPHIC PORTRAIT OF STUDENTS OF SCHOOL №1185"
preliminary stage
Before starting the project, the teacher preparatory work: comprehends the main idea of the future project, the purpose and objectives of the project work, approximate research topics, organizational matters. Questionnaires, forms, information about project work are drawn up. A project team is being formed. The days of the interview with the secretary of the school, the survey of school students are determined.
Starting stage
The teacher voices the idea of the project, provides information on the state of the demographic situation in the country, region and population census data, organizes a discussion of topics for future research of the project. Students express their ideas, hypotheses, write down questions. The teacher motivates students to participate in the project. Students receive homework: find the meanings of words and fix them in the project dictionary. Get to know the examples individual plans project work. The result of this stage is the assessment of the situation at the entrance to the project (formative assessment), the creation of the necessary emotional atmosphere, the formation of the group.
The result of the students' activity is a dictionary of basic terms, the creation of group and individual project routes.
Search stage
Problematic presentation of the material by the teacher, conversation with students based on the completed homework(basic concepts, questions), determination of methods for collecting and processing data in support of the hypotheses put forward.
The teacher presents information on the geography of the population of Russia, St. Petersburg and the demographic situation in the region. The students collectively discuss the action plan. The teacher guides the project participants to determine the results of each work. Students create a group work plan, participate in the definition of goals and objectives. Didactic materials - handouts, cards, annotated list of resources, requirements for the group work plan, guiding questions, questionnaires, methodological instructions for conducting research. Days are scheduled for interviews and surveys of school students.
Students study various sources information, perform tasks, conduct a survey, take interviews, take pictures, process statistical data, perform creative work, choose the form of presentation of results. Participants organize the material in accordance with the idea of the work. The teacher conducts individual consultations, gets acquainted with the interim reports.
Generalizing stage
In this step, students work on creating a presentation. The teacher presents the templates of the booklet, presentation. Statistical and informational materials, reference books, dictionaries are used. Students systematize the selected material, draw up the results of the work in various forms. At this stage, the reports on the conducted studies are finalized.
Project Completion
A conference is held at which project participants present the results of their work. Reflection of work on the project is carried out through a discussion of what has been done and what has not been done in this project what questions should be brought up for discussion in future works. Students express their opinion about participation in the project, their impressions and discoveries. During the summing up, a general conclusion is formulated.
(From the newspaper "For the Russian business", No. 3, 4, 5 2001)
Will the 21st century be the last century in RUSSIA?
Forecast based on demographic data
To date, many different explanations have been proposed for what happened and is happening in our country, but, perhaps, one approach has not yet found proper coverage. This is a consideration of social phenomena through the prism of data on the population, its distribution by sex and age. Of course, the population itself cannot be the cause of any social phenomenon, but it determines some features of what is happening, it can sharpen the contradiction that has arisen, be the last straw that overflows the cup, because the population is the basis: “if there is a person, there are problems, no person, no problem.
“… our windy tribe
Grows, worries, boils
And to the grave of great-grandfathers crowds.
Come, our time will come
And our grandchildren in a good hour
We will also be driven out of the world!”
"Eugene Onegin". A. S. Pushkin
Consider the demographic pyramid, i.e. population distribution by sex and age, for Russia as of January 1, 1999 (Demographic Yearbook of Russia. - M .: Goskomstat. 1999), fig. 1. The curve of the frequency of childbearing depending on the age of the woman is also plotted here (not to scale with the pyramid).
The figure clearly shows the reflection of the tragic periods in our recent history. They correspond to gaps in the number of relevant age groups due to a decrease in the birth rate. These are the civil war (about 80 years old), the famine of the early 30s (65 years old), the Great Patriotic War (55 years old). During the following years of peaceful life, the consequences of the experience were also felt. The age of 30-35 years is small due to the lack of parents born during the Great Patriotic War (the period of generational change is 20-25 years). The next "echo" of the war is in the region of 6-7 year olds (1994). The number of elderly men is significantly lower than the number of women due to their predominant participation in hostilities and the consumption of poisonous substances (alcohol, tobacco, etc.) with the active assistance of the state.
The large generation of the 1930s (many had several sisters and brothers) ensured the large number of the current 40-year-olds and, in a generation, 10-15 year olds.
The 5-7 year-long decline in the birth rate is a reflection of the “reforms” being carried out in the country. In terms of the depth of influence on the birth rate and duration, it has already surpassed not only the "horrors" of collectivization, but even the Great patriotic war, and there are no signs of its end. If this is also a war, then what is its name, and where is the front line?
Figure 1. Sex and age distribution of the population of Russia in 1998 and the birth curve depending on the age of the woman.
The present
“I taught the gypsies not to eat their horse.
Only taught - and she take it and die.
This is the current demographic pyramid, fig. 1. What does it explain, including in the field of politics?
Let's remember the beginning of the "reforms". One of its features was the replacement of the "old" generation of leaders and the country and individual organizations, 60-year-olds, with a "new", younger one. No one noted the absence between them of the proper number of 50-year-olds, which gave this change a more abrupt character, accompanied by a conflict close in severity to the conflict of “fathers and children”.
At the same time, in the early 1990s, a huge age group of people crossed the retirement line, fig. 1. The burden on pension budget items has increased. The people who endured the war, the post-war devastation, raised and strengthened the country, turned out to be too numerous in old age and became a burden for the “reformer” rulers. And only the gradual death of some can create the basis for raising pensions for the remaining old people. The main thing is to wait.
The lack of births in the 70th year after a long period of relatively healthy reproduction of the population of the period of the 50s-60s led to a decrease in the competition for entering higher educational institutions in the late 80s and, accordingly, to the release of specialists in the early 90s. x with lower intellectual potential. (The growth of the population of the USSR after the 60s was provided entirely by the southern republics.) Unusually high competition in universities was observed in 2000. Journalists and TV commentators explained this by the growth of the prestige of higher education, due almost to economic growth. What does the demographic pyramid show? The applicants were mostly born in 1983. And 1983 is the year the 3-year paid parental leave was introduced. The population responded to this by increasing the birth rate. Moreover, the birth of the next child with a small difference has become widespread. And all this happened against the background of the parental peak (late 50s - early 60s). The high birth rate in the mid-80s led to a temporary shortage of places in kindergartens and will ensure tough competition for universities in the first five years of the 21st century.
In the mid-1980s, the number of children born by a woman on average (fertility rate) in Russia for the first time since the 1950s exceeded the “2” mark and approached the level of simple reproduction, i.e. replacement of the population without loss.
Further, the “reforms”, aggravated by the second “echo” of the war (1994), had their effect. However, the “echo” has passed, and the picture is the same: the birth rate is 1.2. The population in a special way began to adapt to the "new era": women stopped giving birth. And then the plot can develop as in a bike, see above ...
“I look sadly at our generation!
His future is either empty or dark…”
"Thought". M. Yu. Lermontov
Kindergartens are emptying and closing. There was a shortage in the elementary grades of schools. True, far-sighted "reformers" in the Department of Education prepared the transition to a 12-year secondary education, they say, so in America, to justify their existence with a small number of students.
By 2010, this wave of children of "reforms" will reach universities and the army. The lack of students will lead to the reduction of universities (Attention to those who trade in education, your business is short-lived!). The small number of young men will inevitably require the abolition of the deferral of conscription for students and additional recruitment from older ages.
By that time, the country's nuclear shield will rot, as well as all the ships, tanks and aircraft lined up in Soviet period. The decline in the country's defense capability after 2015 will have unpredictable consequences.
In this regard, we recall the words of Yavlinsky G., said by him back in 1997: "In the next 15-20 years, Russia may not be afraid of being drawn into a large-scale war." Where does such confidence and such accuracy come from? But the future, as you know, is contained in the present, and in the West a lot is predicted and calculated for many years to come. And our numerical reduction, and the reduction of our defense capability. So, if it is profitable, they will find a conflict situation (and there are always those in life), inflate it to the scale of an armed conflict, and Russia will be drawn into it.
The current demographic situation in Russia cannot even be called critical. critical - this is the area of the borderline, transitional between two states. What is unfolding in our country is a real demographic catastrophe. The decline in population has become sustainable and should be called by another name: extinction. Take a look at Russia from the window of an airplane at twilight hours: a huge endless black plain. Only in a few places are lights visible. It means there is life there. And in Siberia and further to the east, you can see nothing at all but the black desert. And how good Europe is at this time: the spots of cities glow in the dark to the very horizon, the lights of freeways burn like necklaces of diamonds below, everything is covered with the thinnest web of roads ...
The last hope of Russia is the current large generation of the 80s. But it has already been lost. And not only in the sense of alcoholism and drug addiction, but also in terms of worldview. Take the data of sociological surveys on the attitude of young people to the family, to offspring ... And after the generation of the 80s - a collapse, another era of population, and, perhaps, no longer Russia.
The vast territory of the country requires constant labor investment for its integral existence. Roads, power lines, communications, etc. must be maintained in working condition. With population decline outpacing labor productivity growth, there will inevitably come a time when either the entire population will have to serve the country's infrastructure, or separate geographical areas will begin to fall away from the country. And that's without outside help.
The Russian villages, for the most part, will disappear in 20 years (mostly old people now live in them, and those who are younger are drinking little by little). Residents of increasingly empty villages will gradually begin to leave their places and move to vacant houses or apartments in larger settlements. The extensive network of roads will begin to be simplified. Only roads connecting more or less large economic facilities and settlements will be able to be maintained in good condition. This will further spur the resettlement process. The constant change in the nature of the settlement of the territory due to the extinction of the population will require relatively frequent administrative reorganizations, mergers and resubmissions. The housing economy in the cities, again due to the lack of workers, will gradually begin to fall into disrepair. There will be quarters of the "former buildings" that are not suitable for anything.
However, the era of the desolation of cities, most likely, will not begin due to their settlement by close-knit groups and families of immigrants from other countries, who, naturally, will treat the environment as a “temporary residence zone” or, which is no better, will begin to reorganize life. according to their customs. And so it will be in every house, on every landing, and then it will begin to penetrate families. Who knows what it is, he will understand.
The true meaning of the current state of Russia is revealed precisely when considering the results to which it leads when it is extended indefinitely. This refers to a birth rate of 1.2 children per woman throughout her life.
Based on the tables of mortality, fertility rates depending on the age of the woman, as well as the population by sex and age in the year taken as the initial one, demographic pyramids can be calculated for a relatively distant future under various assumptions about the change in fertility and mortality over time. All these data are given in the Demographic Yearbooks. We made a calculation with the current mortality and birth rates for 2025 and 2050 and obtained demographic pyramids, which are shown in Fig. 2 and fig. 3.
In these figures, as in Fig. 1, the birth rate curve is plotted depending on the age of the woman (on a dimensionless scale). It helps to see that the number of women of active childbearing age (20-25 years old) determines the size of the annually added "infant" step of the pyramid, fig. 2. Lack of mothers leads to a shortage of newborns even with a constant birth rate.
Figure 2. Forecast for 2025 with a fertility rate of 1.2 (the average number of children born to one woman in her lifetime).
So, according to Fig. 2, in the first decade of the 21st century, there will be an annual absolute increase in the number of newborns, and the media will start trumpeting this as a normalization of the demographic situation in the country thanks to the right adjustment economic course. Meanwhile, this growth will be entirely due to the gradual entry into the active childbearing age of the generation from 1970 to 1988, gradually increasing in number.
In parallel, during this youth surge, the entertainment and gambling business will flourish. Everything will be sucked out of this wave of youth: health, money. The payment for "pleasures" will also be free time, which, in fact, is the wealth and reserve of the whole people. These will be spiritual corpses, super-intelligent talking animals, because. due to the constant stimulation of the subcortex, the vast majority will never embark on the path of reasonable self-improvement. Many will lose the opportunity to have full-fledged offspring ...
Further, the number of young people will sharply and greatly decrease. In the reports of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, a gratifying trend will appear: a decrease in youth crime, and with it general crime. A number of especially smart people use this "gift" of the 90s to solve their career issues. The general decrease in youth will lead, in particular, to the fact that after 2025 many organizations will have leaders without subordinates, or subordinates will be the same age as their bosses, which will complicate relations in teams.
The only child in most families will be the natural focus of their two parents and four grandparents. The result will be a deep-rooted selfishness that deepens with each generation. A real grief for the whole family will be the call of the only son, the only child to military service. Yes, it's true, many people already know this.
Figure 3. Forecast for 2050 at the current birth rate of 1.2.
Today's youth, squealing in discos and screaming in stadiums, in 2050, fig. 3, will make up a large layer of pensioners. They will be cursed by their small descendants, on whose shoulders the duty of caring for them will fall. And the old man will take care of the old man. The main forces of doctors will be focused on maintaining the health of the elderly. Gerontology will become the leading branch of medicine.
Current students of pedagogical educational institutions and those planning to enter them should know that they may not have to teach after graduation: there are few students. The same fate awaits current athletes who are considering leaving after the end of their sports career for coaching. The lack of pedagogical places will lead to tougher competition and more frequent use of unseemly methods for their employment.
Playgrounds will be overgrown in the very near future. Only anxious adults will rush to them along narrow paths. Grassroots football in its current turbulent breadth will cease to exist and become a narrowly professional sport due to the lack of boys, good football fields everywhere, and spectators in commercial stadiums.
As part of the calculations of demographic pyramids, fig. 2 and fig. 3, changes in the size of the entire population and some of its most important groups over the next century were determined, fig. 4. (Able-bodied: men from 18 to 59 full years and women from 18 to 54; pensioners: m. 60-100 and f. 55-100; conscripts: m. 18-24.) Analysis of these dependencies provides clarifying confirmation of what has been said.
As already noted, the first decade of the 21st century will be quite rosy for both politicians and their short-sighted servants, when a small military generation will retire, and a large generation of the 80s will begin to enter adult working life. Whoever was and whoever the head of state during this period, his rule will take place against a favorable demographic background. The court camarilla will derive the achievements of the country, which will be based only on the work of its population, from its political talent.
The further course of events will be completely "unexpected". Against the background of a constant reduction in the working-age population, fig. 4, the number of pensioners will grow somewhat, and then stop for a long time at a fairly high level. As a result, by 2050 the working-age population will be less than 50%. During all this time, moral norms regarding the elderly will change. There will be a constant shortage of nursing homes or a constant deterioration in the conditions of stay in them. Anyone who has been there will understand.
The constant reduction of the able-bodied population will inevitably complicate the economic situation in the country. We must not forget that coal reserves will last until about 2025, and oil will run out even earlier. (Only oil-soaked land will remain. Road paving will become a luxury.)
In general, the problem of exhaustion natural resources on Earth and the consequences associated with it, which is of the same order of importance as the demographic phenomena described here, requires separate consideration. The redistribution of the world has been in full swing for a long time in order to provide access in the 21st century to the main deposits. And a "democratized" Russia is the main tidbit. To achieve this goal, competitors will stop at nothing, because. alternatives and they have the same: either survival or extinction.
The burden of paying ever-increasing interest on loans received by the "revolutionaries of the 90s" from international moneylenders will become more and more heavy, because. the shrinking population will have to pay the debts of the larger previous generation. It can be said with a high degree of certainty that it will not be possible to repay the debts. The currency received from the sale of natural resources will go entirely back abroad. And then it will become completely clear that in the 90s, before our eyes and under our crying about small salaries and pensions, the “reformers”, it turns out, were doing the “dirty” work of turning Russia into a raw material appendage of the West and, moreover, free of charge.
Economic failures will breed discontent. The government crisis will become continuous. Political scientists will begin to argue that, they say, there have been no talented leaders in the political arena lately, like their predecessors of the first decade of the century. Meanwhile, it is precisely because of the inattention of politicians of the first decade to the issues of fertility, which solved only current issues, that the demographic “collapse” will become irreversible.
In the context of a reduction in the proportion of the able-bodied population, any government, regardless of party orientation, will be forced to raise the retirement age, but this will only give a formal increase to the able-bodied, because. health has been depleted. On the contrary, a person in his declining years will find himself in more difficult conditions. There will be a lot of weak people of pre-retirement age without sufficient means of subsistence. What it is, many see now, but by the time it is still a distant time it will become a mass phenomenon.
"Smart" children will leave their parents, leaving in search of salvation from difficult living conditions in other countries, further reducing the proportion of able-bodied people (emigration is not taken into account in the calculations). Others will resort to tried and tested intoxicants. (Rejoice, alcohol and drug dealers! You can be sure of tomorrow!)
Figure 4. Forecast of the size of various population groups in the 21st century, while maintaining the current birth and death rates.
By the end of the 21st century, the population of Russia should be reduced by 5-6 times, Fig. four.
However, it will most likely not come to that. The vast expanse of the world's greatest country will crack like ice melting on a river. The name "Russia" will remain for a small territory, mainly in the European part. The Far East may break away first. Even now, the number of legal and illegal Chinese immigrants may be close to the number of Russians. Nobody knows for sure.
The theory of the settlement of peoples mainly along their latitude will be increasingly corrected due to the increase in the technological power of mankind. In the harsh deserted expanses of Siberia, to develop natural resources and minerals, narrow-eyed and all sorts of other pioneers in warm clothes, on all-terrain vehicles with air conditioners in cabins, with mobile homes and fast communication by helicopters, will move from warm countries. Natives will be involved in hard and dangerous work, i.e. remnants of the Russian population. Some of these "Mohicans" will surely achieve the position of brigadier, and maybe even more. And with his heroic efforts, he will contribute to pumping out natural resources of their former once great homeland and the formation in its expanses of another civilization, more technologically advanced, and most importantly, more prolific.
The country will not see a gradual decline in the able-bodied population stretched for half a century, because. some of it may die in large-scale wars, very likely for Russia after 2015. For example, it could be a war with China. The United States will actively contribute to its emergence in order to weaken or distract China, whose economic and political power is growing year by year. And the United States will try to do this by proxy, for example, with the help of Russia, in which, by that time, a nationally minded leadership is very likely to come to power. It will put the issues of the revival of the nation, the restoration of defense capability, etc., in the first place, for which it will be defamed by the world "democratic" community-government. And everything will be done to push the two great neighbors together.
The seriousness and ill-concealed interest with which the West treats the extinction of Russia is evidenced by the fact that Zbigniew Brzezinski published a book called "A World Without Russians"...
In a word, neglect in the present quantitative forecast, fig. 4, such important aspects as the depletion of natural resources and geopolitical confrontation allows us to consider it even overly optimistic. Most likely, the development of events at a certain stage will acquire an avalanche-like character due to the imposition of unfavorable factors.
Let's compare the demographic situation, again, only quantitatively, in Russia and in some other countries in 1997 (or in one of the 90s) according to Table 1.
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Table 1. Comparison of population growth and birth rates. |
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natural growth, per 1000 people |
Fertility rate (number of children born to a woman) |
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Belarus | ||
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Azerbaijan | ||
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Turkmenistan | ||
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Uzbekistan | ||
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Bulgaria | ||
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Slovakia | ||
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Germany | ||
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Great Britain | ||
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Norway | ||
From the above data, it can be seen that the most difficult demographic situation is developing precisely in the Slavic states (there is no data on Yugoslavia, but what is happening there is understandable), as well as in the Baltic countries, where the share of the Slavic population is also quite large. Do not forget about Germany, the population of the eastern part of which is a Germanized Polabian Slavs. Those. one can definitely talk about the threat of extinction that hangs over the entire Slavic civilization in the 21st century. The planet in the future will be inhabited by either technologically highly developed peoples, or quite numerous, and even more likely, the owners of both of these qualities. The Slavic peoples meet these criteria less and less.
"Work. Nation. Order!”
As already mentioned, the first years of the 21st century will see an annual increase in the number of newborns, even with a birth rate of 1.2. This annual increase will be 12-13 thousand babies. The absolute number of newborns in 2000 will be about 1 million 270 thousand people. However, these figures are, in fact, bleak, because. even with a simple reproduction of the population (fertility rate of 2.12) in 2000, 2 million 240 thousand children should have been born. In some regions (Tyva, Ingushetia and Dagestan), the situation with the birth rate is quite normal, but these are rare exceptions. Much more characteristic is the Pskov region, where there are 3.8 deaths per birth.
Depopulation is a frequent phenomenon in history and sad for the fate of the peoples covered by it. However, there are examples of deliberately implemented policies in the field of increasing the birth rate. The closest to us is the USSR, in which there was a tax on childlessness in the amount of 10 rubles (for comparison, the salary of an engineer was 130-140 rubles). Then, the massive "baby boom" campaign in the US in the 50s, organized to overcome the consequences of the "belt" in the demographic pyramid, formed as a result of the crisis of the 30s. France of the time of General de Gaulle ... But unsurpassed in purposefulness, nevertheless, National Socialist Germany will remain, in which, thanks to a well-thought-out system of measures, the number of births has constantly increased. In 33, 36 and 39 years it was, respectively, 13, 17 and 19 newborns per 1000 inhabitants. (For comparison, in 2000 in Russia the same figure is 9.3.)
