One of the most important economic indicators affecting interest rates, exchange rates, cost and quality of life is inflation rate. Scholars and economists around the world are debating what the inflation rate should be.

It is claimed that even moderate inflation brings significant damage to the state economy and long-term growth, as it distorts the economy and blocks the action of one of the main factors economic growth.

First of all, inflation is unfair from a social point of view, because is a kind of tax on those whose incomes are fixed in nominal terms or inadequately indexed in accordance with it, and this, as a rule, is the poorest part of the population.

But not all economists think so, for example, according to the French economist Jacques Sapir, the desire to achieve zero inflation is dangerous and can slow down economic growth, and can even provoke depression. In this case, an imbalance between supply and demand may occur. Therefore, we can conclude that the economy needs some level of inflation. An example is the well-known "Great Depression" in the United States and the last long depression in Japan. J.M. Keynes believed that inflation of 3% is optimal for price regulation and wages, as well as stimulate GDP growth and increase business activity in the country.

Researchers do not have unequivocal answers to the question of what the inflation rate should be. But in general, one thing can be said without a doubt, that the consequences of inflation are negative.

The severity of the inflation problem is determined by several reasons:

First, if we take our ruble, then with the strengthening of its exchange rate against the dollar and the euro, there is a weakening of the price competitiveness of our producers.

Secondly, inflation, as we know, manifests itself in the rise in prices for specific goods and services, and this, in turn, causes dissatisfaction on the part of buyers, especially if inflation overtakes the growth of their nominal income.

Thirdly, it is difficult for investors and commodity producers to work in conditions of inflation, since they working capital depreciate, and they can hardly predict the future situation. Therefore, recently, many central banks, when choosing the main goal monetary policy focused on limiting inflation.

Inflation indicators are price indices reflecting price movements.

Main price indices:

Consumer price index - measures the change in the cost of goods and services and is the main indicator that characterizes the level of inflation.

However, it should be noted that the inflation index (CPI or any other) does not determine the behavior of individual consumers, producers and investors. A more important role for them is played by their own "inflationary feelings", which are interpreted as a subjective assessment of inflation rates by economic agents. Inflationary feelings give rise to "inflationary sentiments", i.e. the readiness of individuals for a further increase in inflation and the desire to raise prices themselves or to demand higher wages from employers. Strictly speaking, the term "inflationary expectations" is nothing more than a projection of inflationary sensations into the future. Individuals predict future inflation rates not from officially published CPIs, but from their own feelings.

At the same time, the individual consumer price index for a given consumer may differ significantly from the general CPI due to differences in the values ​​and structure of an individual's expenses from the average for the economy. The overall CPI should be a weighted average of the individual indices. But at the same time, it is important to differentiate price indices by groups of goods and services that are consumed by individuals with different income levels and different places of residence. Given the high income differentiation in Russia, even with a stable overall CPI, individual price indices for most consumers may rise while prices decrease for a small group of consumers with high income. Similar situation can also develop due to the territorial differentiation of the dynamics of prices and incomes.

There is also a psychological factor of inflationary feelings and sentiments. In those countries where the market economy is not particularly developed, "Inflationary sentiment" is very important.

Individuals feel price increases faster for goods that affect vital interests and are bought almost every day.

Such goods include: bakery products, meat and dairy products, vegetables, fruits, passenger transport services, as well as medicines, educational and medical services.

Inflation manifests itself primarily in an increase (explicitly hidden) in prices for goods and services of a comparable quality of goods. The inflation rate is characterized by the rate of increase (with growth) in the price level compared to the previous period and is calculated on the basis of the consumer price index, usually per th, as a percentage.

To determine the level of inflation, it is necessary from the consumer price index current period subtract the base period consumer price index, divide the resulting difference by the base period consumer price index and multiply by one hundred (percentage)

Analysis of the impact of inflationary processes on economic indicators carried out on various levels: at the macro level, industry and at the level of individual enterprises, in connection with which they are divided into three groups.

The first group includes indicators of deflation of macroeconomic totals (GDP, final consumption expenditures, gross capital formation, etc.).

The problem of deflation at the macro level means determining the value of GDP over a number of years. Deflation is carried out in three ways.

The first method consists in the process of deflation of the value indicator, expressed in current prices, in prices previous period. Price index - GDP deflator is calculated by dividing the value of the analyzed indicator in actual prices by its value in comparable prices. GDP deflator index - GDP ratio at current prices to GDP at constant prices of the previous year. The GDP deflator index characterizes the change in wages, profits and consumption of fixed assets, net taxes.

This overestimation is called a direct deflator.

The second method is called double deflation, it is carried out at the production stage. Double deflation is carried out using two price indices and consists in the fact that indicators of gross output and intermediate consumption are revalued separately at comparable prices (by industry)

This method is more accurate, but its calculation is difficult because data on the structure of intermediate consumption are often missing.

The third method is the method of extrapolation of the base level of gross value added using the volume index of production. As a result of extrapolation of industry indicators, we obtain the GVA level of the current period in comparable prices, and the sum of these indicators gives the volume of GVA at the country level.

In practice, deflation can also be carried out at the end-use stage by constantly re-evaluating the end-use elements of GDP.

The second group of indicators characterizing the change in income, consumption and standard of living due to rising prices ( industry level), includes indicators of consumer prices and dynamics of prices for consumer goods, incomes and expenditures of the population, indicators purchasing power ruble wages, the cost of a set of basic foodstuffs, etc.

The composite consumer price index is a general indicator of inflation. Its dynamics over time by regions and, in comparison with other indicators, is a characteristic of inflation. Here, the coefficient of consumer price advances is calculated in comparison with the growth rates of other indicators.

One of the relative indicators of the characteristics of the level and dynamics of inflation is the ratio of the cost of a set of food products to the amount of monetary income of the population

A clear indicator of inflation is the purchasing power index, which is calculated as the ratio of the average monthly wage to the price specific goods determined from the data of selective budget surveys. In this group of indicators, one can also calculate the ratio living wage: with the average per capita wage income of the population, the average monthly salary, the average pension.

The third group of indicators characterizing the level of inflation includes indicators of changes in profits and profitability of production due to rising inflation. For factor analysis of profit and profitability, the following indices are used:

1. Index of price changes for products, works and services
inflation on the final economic indicators is impossible, but it is possible to mitigate its impact to a large extent.

Practice shows that it is impossible to completely neutralize the phenomenon of inflation on the final economic indicators, but it is possible to mitigate its impact to a large extent.

Indicators characterizing the level of inflation are price indices, relative values ​​showing price dynamics. Economic and financial theory uses the following price indices:

The cost of living index is defined as the level of retail prices for those goods and services used by certain social groups of the population. As a rule, the cost of living index is calculated for three groups of the population: the highest, the middle and the lowest.

The retail price index is calculated based on the retail prices of all product groups. In official Russian statistics, it is called the "composite consumer price index (CPI)", which takes into account the cost of 407 main groups of goods and services. This is one of" key indicators characterizing inflationary processes in the economy.

The wholesale price index is calculated based on the prices of goods in wholesale trade.

Producer price indices take into account producer selling prices. In Russian statistics, these include price indices:

manufacturer in industry;

sales of agricultural products;

implementation of freight transportation;

on capital investment.

GNP deflator a group of indices characterizing the change market prices for the most important

Inflation has an impact on the economy positive side, as well as negative. It depends on the rate of its growth. Most of the time, inflation

leads to negative consequences in economics:

1. Strengthens disproportions in the economy. The uneven rise in prices for goods contributes to the transfer of capital from one branch of production to another (production in some sectors expands and decreases in others). This undermines incentives to long term investment, which leads to an increase in unemployment, curbing the process of capital accumulation, disorganization of economic ties.

2. Creates conditions for the overflow of capital from production to the sphere of circulation. There is a speculative trade, where the capital quickly turns around and makes a profit. Inflation leads to the depreciation of all forms of industrial capital.

3. Distorts the structure of consumer demand. Rising prices give rise to a desire to turn money into real values ​​are goods, regardless of the need for them.

4. Violates the capacity of the domestic market. The real wages of all segments of the population are declining, and the sale of goods is hindered by a reduction in effective demand.

5. Disrupts functioning monetary system. The decrease in the purchasing power of money leads to a decrease in the volume cash savings and thus to a reduction in the resources of financial institutions. The struggle for areas of attracting and investing capital is intensifying. A large part of them no longer return to domestic market either in commodity or monetary form.

6. negative impact on international economic relations. The depreciation of money leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of exporting firms and facilitates the importation of goods from abroad. In search of a profitable application and a safe haven for capital, there is an outflow of capital abroad, as a result of which the payment balance countries.

7. Sharpens the process public funding. Stimulates the filling of the budget through the issuance of banknotes. At the same time, tax revenues to the treasury are devalued, and the problem of public debt is aggravated.

8. Exacerbates the currency crisis. Differences in inflation rates between countries lead to a discrepancy between official and market rate currencies. Inflation contributes to an increase in international means of payment (their mass).

4.4. Indicators characterizing the level of inflation

Inflation manifests itself, first of all, in an increase (explicit and hidden) in prices for goods and services of a comparable quality of goods. inflation rate characterized by the rate of increase (increase) in the price level compared to the previous period and is calculated on the basis of the consumer price index, usually per year as a percentage.

To determine the level of inflation, it is necessary to subtract the consumer price index of the base period from the consumer price index of the current period, divide the resulting difference by the consumer price index of the base period and multiply by one hundred (in percent).

where Iinfl is the inflation rate in percent;

The analysis of the impact of inflationary processes on economic indicators is carried out at various levels: at the macro level, industry and at the level of individual enterprises, and therefore they are divided into three groups.

The first group includes indicators of deflation of macroeconomic totals (GDP, final consumption expenditures, gross capital formation, etc.).

The problem of deflation at the macro level means determining the value of GDP over a number of years. Deflation is carried out in three ways:

The first method consists in the process of deflating the value indicator, expressed in current prices, into the prices of the previous period. Price index - GDP deflator is calculated by dividing the value of the analyzed indicator in actual prices by its value in comparable prices. The GDP deflator index is the ratio of GDP at current prices to GDP at constant prices of the previous year. The GDP deflator index characterizes the change in wages, profits and consumption of fixed assets, net taxes. It is calculated according to the Paasche formula.

I defl = ∑ ∑

where ∑p1 g1 is GDP at current prices;

∑p0 g1 – GDP of the current period in comparable prices.

This overestimation is called a direct deflator.

The second method is called double deflation, it is carried out at the production stage. Double deflation is carried out with the help of two price indices and consists in the fact that indicators of gross output and intermediate consumption are separately re-evaluated at comparable prices (by industry).

where GVA 1 (P0) is the gross value added of the current period in comparable prices;

∑ g 1 р 1 – gross output at current prices;

∑ m 1 r 1 – intermediate consumption at current prices;

I price BB - price index for gross output;

I price PP - price index for intermediate consumption.

This method is more accurate, but its calculation is difficult because data on the structure of intermediate consumption are often missing.

The third method is the method of extrapolation of the base level of gross value added using the volume index of output. As a result of extrapolation of industry indicators, we obtain the GVA level of the current period in comparable prices, and the sum of these indicators gives the volume of GVA at the country level.

In practice, deflation can also be carried out at the end-use stage by constantly re-evaluating the end-use elements of GDP.

The second group of indicators characterizing the change in income, consumption and living standards due to rising prices (industry level) includes indicators of consumer prices and the dynamics of prices for consumer goods, incomes and expenses of the population, indicators of the purchasing power of the ruble and wages, the cost of a set of basic products food, etc.

The composite consumer price index is a general indicator of inflation. Its dynamics over time by region in comparison with other indicators is a characteristic of inflation. Here, the coefficient of advance of consumer prices in comparison with the growth rates of other indicators is calculated.

One of the relative indicators of the characteristics of the level and dynamics of inflation is the ratio of the cost of a set of food products to the value of the monetary income of the population.

where I inf is the inflation rate, in %;

∑ g 1 r 1 - the cost of a set of food products; D 1 - cash income population.

A clear characteristic of inflation is the purchasing power index, which is calculated as the ratio of the average monthly wage to the price of specific goods, determined according to sample budget surveys. In this group of indicators, one can also calculate the ratio of the subsistence minimum: CO to the average per capita wage income of the population, average monthly wage, average pension.

The third group of indicators characterizing the level of inflation includes indicators of changes in profits and profitability of production due to rising inflation.

For factor analysis of profit and profitability, the following are used:

2. Price change index for material and technical values ​​(index of "purchasing prices"):

3. Change index book value fixed assets and capital investments:

I p (o) = ∑ o 1 p 1 ∑ o 1 p 0

Practice shows that it is impossible to completely neutralize the effect of inflation on the final economic indicators, but it is possible to mitigate its effect to a large extent.

4.5. Forms and methods of inflation regulation

The main forms of stabilization monetary circulation, depending on the state of inflationary processes, are monetary reforms and anti-inflationary policy.

Monetary reform - transformation monetary system(full or partial), carried out by the state in order to streamline and strengthen monetary circulation. Depending on the goals pursued, monetary reforms can be divided into two types:

1. Formation of a new monetary system (transition from bimetallism to monometallism, to fiat credit money, etc.);

2. Partial transformation of the monetary system (changing the order of issue, types of banknotes, denominations monetary unit).

All ongoing monetary reforms are aimed at stabilizing the currency.

Currency stabilization methods: Nullification. Cancellation announcement

of a heavily depreciated currency and the introduction new currency. Devaluation. Depreciation of the national currency, compared with foreign. Revaluation. An increase in the exchange rate of the national currency, in comparison with a foreign one. Shock therapy: quick jump to market economy; free pricing; a decline in the standard of living; freeze on wages. Denomination. Strikethrough zero method, i.e. consolidation of the scale of prices.

Another form of stabilization of monetary circulation is the anti-inflationary policy, a set of measures to state regulation economy to fight inflation.

AT The economy has outlined two directions of anti-inflationary policy:

1. deflationary policy- containment process money supply in circulation

by reducing public spending, increasing the interest rate for a loan, increasing the tax burden, increasing the norm required reserves commercial banks, sale of state and valuable papers etc.

2. Income Policy provides parallel control over prices and wages by completely freezing them or setting limits to their growth.

Variants of anti-inflationary policy directions are selected depending on their priorities. If put purpose of deterrence economic growth, then deflationary policy. If the goal is to stimulate

growth management, then the income policy is preferred. In the case when the goal is to curb inflation at any cost, then both methods of anti-inflationary policy are used in parallel. Anti-inflation policy in terms of time it can be long-term and short-term.

Long term policy sets: the task of extinguishing the inflationary expectation of the population and includes measures to reduce the budget deficit by raising taxes and reducing government spending, as well as measures in the field of monetary circulation (setting a limit on the money supply) and weakening the influence of monetary factors.

The short-term policy aims to temporarily reduce inflation by: expanding aggregate supply without increasing aggregate demand(benefits to enterprises); privatization of part of their property; sales a large number shares of new private enterprises; raise interest rates on deposits and a number of other events.

The experience of carrying out anti-inflationary measures shows the expediency of combining both policies.

Inflation rates are intended to give quantification inflation processes. inflation, according to monetarist theory money, should be measured in surplus
money supply in circulation. In practice, this is difficult to do, so the measurement of inflation is reduced to the theory of price growth, namely, to the definition of the main types of price indices.

Price indices are relative indicators that characterize the ratio of prices over time.

There are the following main types of price indices:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the value of a basket consumer goods and services, including certain types of goods in different cities;

Cost of living index - an indicator that characterizes the dynamics of the cost of a set of consumer goods and services (in accordance with the actual structure of consumer spending of the population);

Producer price index - an indicator reflecting changes in wholesale producer prices in a certain period of time;

Gross deflator domestic product(GDP) - the ratio of nominal GDP to real, or an indicator of the decline in real GDP;

Producer wholesale price index (price index of goods industrial purpose) reflects the change in prices of a certain quantity of intermediate goods used in production. The change in wholesale prices reflects the dynamics of prices for raw materials, semi-finished products, materials, end products in the wholesale market;

Set Retail Price Index 25 the most important types food;

Indices of the amount of cash in circulation and the issue of money in circulation;

Construction cost index;

Index of export and import prices.

The rate of inflation is used to assess inflation. It is measured for a year, but shorter periods (months or quarters) or longer ones - 3, 5 or 10 years can be considered.

To determine the inflation rate for the year, you need to subtract the price index of the past year from the price index of the current year, divide this difference by the index of the past year, and then multiply by 100. If the inflation rate turns out to be negative, then deflation (price reduction) was observed.

For countries with sustained inflation rates, the “rule of 70” can be used. The rule helps to quickly calculate the number of years required for the price level to double: divide the number 70 by the rate of annual increase in the price level as a percentage.

The “70-value rule” is usually applied when, for example, it is necessary to establish how long it will take to real GNP or personal savings doubled.

As an indirect indicator of the level of inflation, data on the ratio of commodity stocks to the amount cash deposits of the population (a decrease in reserves and an increase in deposits indicate an increase in the degree of inflationary stress). Data on the excess of household income over expenditure as a percentage of income can also characterize the level of inflation.

The most commonly used consumer price index (CPI) is the ratio of the price of a consumer basket to current year to its price in the base year. When calculating this index, not all final goods and services are taken into account, but only those that make up the so-called consumer basket purchased by a typical household.

This includes basic food products, a range of non-food items (clothing, footwear, household goods) and basic services (medical, transport services, communications, recreation, culture, etc.).

The price index calculated for a fixed set of goods is called the Laspeyres index: the prices of the current period (p^ and the base period (p0) are compared for the same set of goods (goods basket) (q0). The Laspeyres formula shows how much a fixed goods basket becomes more expensive in current period:

Both of the considered indices have a drawback: they do not take into account changes in the range of consumer goods, which means that shifts in consumer goods baskets are not reflected. If the Laspeyres index somewhat overestimates the rise in prices and, accordingly, the dynamics of the cost of living (the real costs of consumers for the purchase of certain sets of goods and services), the Fisher index is used:

The Fisher index is the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Pache indices. This index eliminates the shortcomings of the two considered indexes.

Since 1996, quarterly calculation of the GDP deflator index has been introduced in Russia. Deflator - a price index used to determine the real volume of GDP and the corresponding adjustment of economic policy.

The GDP deflator is equal to the ratio of nominal GDP (calculated at current prices) to real GDP (at constant prices) in the current period.

This index is approved annually centrally.

The following criteria are also used to determine the types of inflation:

Price growth rate;

The degree of divergence of price increases for different groups of goods;

The expectation or predictability of inflation.