The growth of investment in fixed assets in January-June amounted to 4.8% compared to the same period last year, follows from data published on Thursday by Rosstat; in nominal terms, their size is 5.7 trillion rubles. At the same time, investments have not yet reached the levels of 2015 - in two years they have decreased by 1.2%.
Rosstat publishes long series of data on investment only in annual terms, which makes it difficult to correctly compare data for six months. Investments in fixed capital fell for three consecutive years, declining by 12.2% over this period: in 2014, the decline was 1.5%, in 2015 - 10.1%, and in 2016 - 0.9%. In monthly terms, Rosstat does not publish the dynamics of investment, the latest available quarterly data is for January-March, when investments grew by 2.3% compared to the corresponding period last year (but fell seasonally by 61.8% compared to the fourth quarter). Judging by the data for the first half of the year, growth in the second quarter could reach more than 6% yoy, Ekaterina Krylova, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank, estimates.
The investment data are correct, they can be trusted, this is evidence of a gradual economic recovery, says Vladimir Bessonov, head of the laboratory for research on inflation and economic growth at the Higher School of Economics (HSE). The production of investment goods is growing, for example building materials, for which there was a long decline, now turned into a revival, the expert notes. He draws an analogy with the behavior of households, for which the analogue of investment can be the purchase of cars. "Production cars is also gradually growing, ”recalls Bessonov. Another indirect sign is the growth of imports, a significant part of which is investment goods, adds Vladimir Bessonov. Import, according to Rosstat, has been growing since August last year, in the first half of the year it increased by 27.4% compared to the same period last year.
This "expected" revival in investment, Krylova confirms, it occurred "due to a smooth easing of conditions bank lending enterprises, improvements financial position companies in general and ruble strengthening”. However, analysts expected less positive data - approximately plus 3.5-4%, she notes.
The growth of investments in 2017, according to the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development, should be 2% and stay close to this level in the next three years (according to the baseline scenario for the forecast of social economic development). The reforms, as expected by the agency, should accelerate investment growth to 3.9%, 6.8% and 9.8% in 2018-2020, respectively. The growth of private market investment is the basic idea of the government's plan to accelerate economic growth, said Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. In his opinion, economic predictability and "the formation of mutual trust between business and the state" should contribute to this.
The growth of investment should indeed become the main driver of GDP (previously consumption took over this role), noted the chairman of the board of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR is preparing economic program for the president) Alexei Kudrin. But this factor will accelerate the economy only in the coming years, he stipulated, then labor productivity should come out on top. According to the expectations of the CSR, the share of investment in GDP should grow from 18.3% in 2016 to 22.4% in 2025.
GDP in January-June grew by 1.5% compared to the first half of last year, also estimated on Thursday by Rosstat. In July, industry grew by 1.1% (its growth slowed down after a jump in May-June), retail trade turnover rose by 1%. At the same time, the real incomes of the population continued to decline (by 0.9%) after the drop stopped in June.
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Official statistics on changes in one of the key statistical indicators"investment in fixed assets" in Russia
For every enterprise investment in fixed assets serve as the main driving force that directly affects the increase in production volumes, economic viability. And nationwide, the state investment sphere determines the pace of economic and social development countries, technical level production and its efficiency, competitiveness in world markets, and as a result - qualitative characteristics of the standard of living of the population. And the investment made in the production of consumer goods, the construction of housing and social and cultural facilities, directly affects the living conditions of the population.
In the Soviet state, when reigned Planned Economy, five-year plans and long-term economic development programs regulated the investment process. Modern conditions dictate a broader interpretation of this concept:
« cash, securities, other property, including property rights, other rights having monetary value invested in objects of entrepreneurial and (or) other activities in order to make a profit and (or) achieve another beneficial effect ”(No. 39-FZ of February 25, 1999)
It should be noted that in Russia capital investments invariably remain an important area investment activity. Investments in fixed capital in Russia represent costs aimed at:
- New construction;
- expansion, reconstruction and technical re-equipment of existing enterprises;
- purchase of machinery, equipment, tools, inventory;
- design and survey work and other costs.
The system of indicators characterizing investments in fixed assets is formed based on the results of ongoing continuous and selective federal statistical observations, as well as a sample survey investment activity organizations engaged in mining, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water. The last one was carried out by Rosstat on October 1, 2016. It was aimed at obtaining as a result information on the investment activity of enterprises and organizations in 2016 and the investment intentions of entrepreneurs for 2017. Respondents were 9.9 thousand organizations that are not small businesses, and 3.9 thousand small businesses. And its results are extended to the entire set of units of statistical observation.
Investments in dynamics
The dynamics of investments serves as a litmus test for investors and various participants in an investment project, clearly showing how promising its further development becomes. It is influenced by various factors. Stable the economic growth countries on the dynamics affects, no doubt, positively and guarantees the growth of investments. When the economy grows steadily, without strong fluctuations, the dynamics of investment gradually increases, being a reflection of the general economic situation. Economic crisis invariably entails a decrease in the volume of invested funds and an inevitable drop in dynamics.
Since 1987, when perestroika began in the USSR and some regulations opened up opportunities for foreign direct investment. Until 2008, there was an increase investment investments at actual prices. An analysis of investments in fixed capital at comparable prices (adjusted for inflation) shows that real growth only started in 1999, when the figure varied from 105.3 to 123.8%. A new drop in volumes due to the crisis of 2008-2009. (more about the crisis and its consequences ), occurred in 2009, both in actual and comparable prices. A decrease in investment volumes in comparable prices has also been observed over the past three years.
“Indices of the physical volume of investments in fixed assets are calculated in comparable prices. Average annual prices of the previous year are taken as comparable. Revaluation to the average annual prices of the previous year is carried out with the help of average annual deflator indices.
Source: Rosstat
Today, fixed capital investment accounts for one fifth of gross domestic product(GDP) countries. At the end of 2016, 14,639.8 billion rubles were invested in the country's economy, which is 20.4% of GDP.
Source: Rosstat
More than 80% of the total investments are mastered by organizations Russian form property, mostly private. Of the 12,192 billion rubles disbursed by them in 2016, 8,244.0 billion, or 67.6%, went to private enterprises. To the share of foreign and joint ventures accounts for 9.2% at the end of 2016.
| Total, billion rubles | including property |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian | foreign | joint Russian and foreign |
||
Source: Rosstat
Specific structure of investments
In the structure of investments in fixed assets, the largest share falls on buildings and structures, last years it increased from 43.3% in 2011 to 45.2% in 2016. Almost a third of investments are directed to machinery, equipment and vehicles(30.6%), in 2011 they were at the level of 37.9%.
Source: Rosstat
Based on sample survey new domestic machines and equipment were purchased by 84% of organizations, imported - 32%. On the secondary market cars and equipment of domestic production were purchased by 18% of organizations, imported - 5%.
Basically, these were vehicles, complexes and technological lines, separate installations of technological equipment and electronic computers.
Of the total number of surveyed organizations, 16% made their acquisitions on the terms of financial leasing.
Direction of investments in fixed assets
For the development of activities such as operations with real estate, rent and provision of services, mining, transport and communications, manufacturing and production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, almost 80% of investments are directed. And this ratio has been maintained over the past few years.
Source: Rosstat
Compared to 2011, investments in fixed assets in comparable prices in such activities as
- production of medical products, measuring instruments, control, management and testing; optical instruments, photo and film equipment; hours;
- production of office equipment and computer technology;
- chemical production.
“Distribution of investments in fixed capital by types economic activity is carried out in accordance with the OKVED classifier based on the purpose of fixed assets, i.e. the field of activity in which they will operate.
| 2016 in % to 2011 |
|
|---|---|
| Production of medical products, measuring instruments, control, management and testing; optical instruments, photo and film equipment; hours | |
| Manufacture of office equipment and computer technology | |
| Chemical production | |
| Operations with real estate | |
| Extraction of crude oil and natural gas; provision of services in these areas | |
| Scientific research and development | |
| Retail other than trade vehicles and motorcycles; repair of household and personal items | |
| Wholesale trade, including trade through agents, except for trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles | |
| Fishing, fish farming |
Source: Rosstat
Investment financing sources
“Calculation of investments in fixed capital by sources of financing is carried out by Rosstat without small businesses and the volume of investments that are not observed by direct statistical methods.”
If back in 2011, the use of investment investments occurred to a greater extent at the expense of attracted sources, then by the end of 2016 the situation has changed and the organizations' own funds come to the fore. Today their share is 50.9%.
Source: Rosstat
This is in terms of money.
According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017, the volume of investments in fixed assets amounted to 9681.7 billion rubles, which is 4.2% higher than the volume of the corresponding period last year (in real terms). For comparison, the same indicator a year earlier was -2.3%.
The best results in January-September 2017 in terms of investment growth were achieved in the Central and Southern Federal Districts (Fig. 1), where investments in fixed assets in real terms increased by more than 20% compared to January-September 2016 Improvement in the situation was also observed in the Far East and North Caucasus Federal Districts, where investment growth rates outpaced the national average, although the corresponding figures were negative a year earlier.
Rice. 1. Change in investments in fixed capital by federal districts RF in January-September 2017 (in % of the corresponding period of the previous year)
Source: Rosstat
At the same time, the situation with investments remains difficult in a number of federal districts. Thus, in the North-Western and Ural Federal Districts, the growth rates of investment in fixed capital slowed down sharply and turned out to be lower than the national level, amounting to 3.9% and 2.7%, respectively. At the same time, the investment decline continued in the Siberian and Volga Federal Districts. The volume of investments in fixed assets in the Siberian Federal District in January-September 2017 decreased by 3.1% in annual terms (against a reduction of 4.9% in the same period a year earlier), and in the Volga Federal District - by 6.3% ( despite the fact that in January-September 2016 investments decreased by 9.8%.
Regions with high growth rates and falling investment
In January-September 2017, in 48 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the growth rates of investment in fixed assets compared to the same period last year were positive, and in 37 constituent entities of the Russian Federation - negative. These rates also differed significantly from each other. A record high growth in investments in fixed capital was recorded in the Republic of Crimea (by 4.2 times compared to January-September 2016) and in the city of Sevastopol (by 2.3 times), which is associated with the construction of infrastructure facilities at the expense of the federal budget. According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017, 75.5% of investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Crimea and 77.3% in Sevastopol were financed from the federal budget.
In another 7 regions, investment growth rates exceeded 30%. For example, in the Amur Region, investments in fixed assets in January-September 2017 increased by 48.0% compared to January-September 2016, in the Vologda Region - by 44.2%, in the Kaliningrad Region - by 41.4%. % etc. For these regions, the main source of investment is the funds of private investors, usually large companies. For example, a number of industrial projects are being implemented in the Vologda Oblast in 2017, including Severstal’s projects for the reconstruction of coke oven batteries and the construction of new polymer coating and galvanizing shops, the Phosagro project for the construction of a new fertilizer production, the Gazprom project for the construction of sections of the main gas pipeline "Ukhta-Torzhok 2" and gasification of a number of districts, as well as projects for the creation of new industries in single-industry towns in the region. Several large "gas" projects are being implemented in the Amur Region (construction of a gas processing plant and a section of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline). Among the regions with high investment growth rates there are largest regions- Moscow (growth in January-September 2017 by 20.3% in annual terms) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (growth by 35.2%).
Along with this, in a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in January-September 2017, an investment decline was observed, the pace of which also reached high values. For example, in 19 regions, the rate of decline in investment in fixed assets was 10% or more. Thus, in the Republic of Ingushetia, the drop in investments reached 42.5%, in the Republic of Komi - 35.7%, in the Kurgan region - 30.6%, etc. In some cases, such rates of decline are associated with the completion of large investment projects, which creates the effect of a "high base" of past periods. For example, a year earlier (in January-September 2016), investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Ingushetia increased by 42.2% in annual terms, in the Komi Republic - by 18.7%, in the Kurgan region - by 16.0%. However, among the regions experiencing an investment decline, there are also quite large subjects of the Russian Federation, where the investment situation depends not on a few, but on many investment projects. Among these regions are Krasnoyarsk region(a drop in investments by 13.0% in January-September 2017 in annual terms), the Republic of Bashkortostan (a drop by 25.5%), the Sverdlovsk Region (a drop by 7.6%).
Investment situation in the largest constituent entities of the Russian Federation
In recent years, about half of the investments in fixed assets carried out in Russia have been in a relatively small number of regions of the Russian Federation. For example, in January-September 2017, 50.0% of investments were made in 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation (Table 1). This is Moscow and the Moscow region, Tyumen region and the Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs, St. Petersburg, the Republic of Tatarstan, the Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk Territories, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Sverdlovsk Region. The largest “separation” from the rest of the subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of investment volume has the “three leaders” - Moscow (11.5% of investments in fixed assets in Russia), Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District (7.8%) and Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Yugra (6.9%). For comparison, St. Petersburg, which occupies the 4th place among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of investment in fixed capital, accounts for only 4.0% of the total Russian investment. Often these regions have a decisive influence on the investment situation in federal districts: for example, the situation in the Central Federal District is largely determined by trends in Moscow and the Moscow Region, in the Urals Federal District - in the Tyumen Region (together with KhMAO and YNAO), in the Southern Federal District - in the Krasnodar Territory, etc.
Table 1. Leading regions in terms of investment in fixed assets in January-September 2017 (in billion rubles and in % of the total Russian investment)
Source: Rosstat
In January-September 2017, the composition of the leading regions in terms of investment in fixed capital almost did not change compared to the same period in 2016. The change affected only one region: the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) entered the 11 leaders, replacing the Republic of Bashkortostan. The positions of some regions have also changed. For example, the positions of St. Petersburg and the Krasnodar Territory have increased, while the positions of the Moscow Region and the Republic of Tatarstan, on the contrary, have decreased. Among the regions leading in terms of investment in the country, there were also multidirectional trends in changes in the volume of investment. So, in Moscow, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yakutia, high rates investment growth, while in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Sverdlovsk Region and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, on the contrary, they are low.
Sources of investment in the leading regions
In most regions of the Russian Federation, leading in terms of investment in fixed capital, the main source of investment in fixed capital is the own funds of organizations (Fig. 2). Examples of such regions are the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and the Tyumen Oblast (excluding the Autonomous Okrug), where this share reaches 89.3% and 84.3%, respectively. A significant part of investments (60-65%) is financed by own funds organizations in the Sverdlovsk region, in the Republic of Tatarstan, as well as in St. Petersburg.
In a number of leading regions in terms of investment volumes, on the contrary, the bulk of investments in January-September 2017 were financed from borrowed funds - primarily funds from higher-level and other organizations (in Rosstat statistics they are classified as “other”), as well as loans banks. For example, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), where a number of projects are being implemented largest companies(such as the development of the Chayandinskoye oil and gas condensate field, the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline (Gazprom structures), the construction of the Inaglinsky and Denisovsky GOKs (GK Kolmar), the construction of a diamond mining enterprise (Verkhne-Munskoye ore field) (AK Alrosa) and etc.), attracted funds (except for budget funds and bank loans) accounted for 58.1% of investments in the region's fixed assets. At the same time, in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, where a number of investment projects in the extractive industry are also carried out, 51.9% of investments were made through bank loans (this applies, in particular, to NOVATEK projects financed by loans from Russian and foreign banks).
Some regions are characterized by a relatively high proportion budget funds in the structure of sources of investment in fixed assets. This applies to the greatest extent to Moscow, where in January-September 2017, budgetary funds became the source of 31.2% of investments in fixed assets (of which 27.1% accounted for the city budget, and 4.0% - for federal budget). This structure of investment sources is associated with the implementation of a number of infrastructure projects in Moscow (primarily transport), as well as with the implementation of joint projects between the region and private investors. In addition, a relatively high share of budget funds as a source of investment in fixed assets is typical for St. Petersburg (19.2% of investments in January-September 2017), Krasnodar Territory (18.5%), Moscow Region (18.3% ). In St. Petersburg, as in Moscow, the main part of the invested budget funds came from the city budget, and in the Krasnodar Territory and the Moscow Region - from the federal budget.
Rice. 2. The structure of investments in fixed capital of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - leaders in terms of investment in January-September 2017 (in % of the volume of investments)
