^ 38) Credit risks: exchange, selective and bankruptcy
The risks of direct financial losses include the following varieties: stock risk, selective risk, bankruptcy risk.
Exchange risks represent the risk of losses from exchange transactions. These risks include: the risk of non-payment on commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission fees of a brokerage firm, etc.
Selective risks (from Latin selectio - choice, selection) are the risks of choosing the wrong method of investing capital, the type of securities for investment in comparison with other types of securities when forming an investment portfolio.
The risk of bankruptcy is a danger as a result of an incorrect choice of the method of investing capital, a complete loss by the entrepreneur equity and its inability to pay for its obligations. As a result, the entrepreneur becomes bankrupt.
^
39) Risk of lost profits and reduced profitability
The risk of lost profits is the risk of indirect (collateral) financial damage (lost profit) as a result of not carrying out any activity or stopping economic activity.
^ Return risk may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, on deposits and loans.
Portfolio investments are associated with the formation of an investment portfolio and represent the acquisition of securities and other assets. The term "portfolio" comes from the Italian "Porte foglio" in the sense of the totality of securities that an investor has.
Yield downside risk includes the following varieties: interest rate risks and credit risks.
To interest rate risks includes the risk of losses by commercial banks, credit institutions, investment institutions as a result of exceeding interest rates, paid by them on attracted funds, over the rates on loans granted. Interest risks also include the risks of losses that investors may incur due to changes in dividends on shares, interest rates on the market for bonds, certificates and other securities.
An increase in the market rate of interest leads to a decrease in the market value of securities, especially bonds with a fixed interest rate. With an increase in interest, a massive dumping of securities issued at lower fixed interest rates and, under the terms of issue, early accepted back by the issuer, may also begin. The interest rate risk is borne by an investor who has invested in medium-term and long-term fixed-interest securities with a current increase in the average market interest compared to the fixed level. In other words, the investor could receive an increase in income due to an increase in interest, but cannot release his funds invested on the above conditions.
The interest rate risk is borne by the issuer issuing mid-term and long-term fixed-interest securities in circulation at the current decrease in the average market interest in comparison with the fixed level. In other words, the issuer could raise funds from the market under more low interest, but he is already bound by the issue of securities he made.
This type of risk, given the rapid growth of interest rates in the face of inflation, is also important for short-term securities.
^ Credit risk - the danger of non-payment by the borrower of the principal and interest due to the creditor. Credit risk also includes the risk of such an event in which the issuer that issued debt securities will be unable to pay interest on them or the principal amount of the debt.
Credit risk can also be a type of direct financial loss risk.
^
40) Currency and liquidity risks
Currency risks represent the risk of currency losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of one foreign exchange in relation to another when conducting foreign economic, credit and other currency transactions.
Liquidity risks are risks associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and use value.
Investment risks include the following sub-types of risks:
1) the risk of lost profits;
2) the risk of a decrease in profitability;
3) risk of direct financial losses.
^ 41) Inflationary and deflationary risks
Inflationary risk - the risk caused by an unforeseen increase in production costs due to the inflationary process.
The causes of inflationary processes are ambiguous and usually consist not only in excess money supply over commodity, but also in structural disproportions, in the imperfection of the economic mechanism. Therefore, the reason for the emergence of inflationary risks are problems of a general economic nature in terms of macroeconomic policy.
The implementation of this group of risks is one of the most significant causes of the company's losses. They can appear in the following forms:
1) rising prices have a negative impact on the quality of development plans;
2) the consequence of inflationary processes is the unwillingness of the population to buy certain goods, the purchase of which, from its point of view, does not sufficiently protect its funds, which can lead to a significant decrease in sales volumes of a number of firms;
3) in conditions of high inflation, it becomes practically impossible to expand the activities of the enterprise (for example, replacing equipment), due to the difficulty of obtaining bank loans, etc.;
4) inflationary processes are the cause of such risks that are associated with a decrease in purchasing power consumers, which negatively affects the activities of almost all manufacturing firms;
5) high inflation is the cause of negative changes in the investment climate of the economy as a whole. Thus, inflationary risk, which is almost always present in the conditions market economy, may cause significant losses for economic entities in the event of its implementation.
Deflation is the process of exclusion from circulation of a part of the excess money supply issued during the period of inflation. Its consequence is a deflationary risk, which can manifest itself in:
a) a fall in the level of prices for goods and, accordingly, a decrease in the profits of firms;
b) the likelihood of higher tax rates;
c) probabilities of increasing accounting bank rates, which can have a particularly negative impact on the profitability of the latter;
d) state intervention in matters related to the regulation foreign economic relations enterprises.
Thus, deflationary processes can also be the cause of entrepreneurial risk. As world experience shows, their forecasting during the period of macroeconomic stabilization is important for business entities.
^ 42) Essence of financial risks
Financial risk arises in the course of the relationship of the enterprise with financial institutions(banks, financial, investment, insurance companies, stock exchanges, etc.). The reasons for financial risk are inflationary factors, growth in bank discount rates, depreciation of securities, etc.
Financial risks are divided into two types:
1) risks associated with the purchasing power of money;
2) risks associated with capital investment (investment risks).
The risks associated with the purchasing power of money include the following types of risks: inflationary and deflationary risks, currency risks, liquidity risk.
Inflation means the depreciation of money and, consequently, the rise in prices. Deflation is a process that is the opposite of inflation, it is expressed in a decrease in prices and, accordingly, in an increase in the purchasing power of money.
Inflation risk is the risk that, as inflation rises, the cash income depreciate in terms of real purchasing power faster than they grow. In such conditions, the entrepreneur bears real losses.
Deflationary risk is the risk that, as deflation increases, the price level will fall, economic conditions for business will worsen, and incomes will decline.
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43) Insurance. economic sense
Insurance is economic category, a system of economic relations that include a set of forms and methods for the formation of trust funds Money and their use to compensate for damage caused by various unforeseen adverse events (risks). Expresses the functions of forming a specialized insurance fund; compensation for damage; warning of an insured event.
That. insurance is a special mechanism of the market economy, which contributes to the "smoothing" of negative economic situations, restores the full functioning legal entities failed for one reason or another, and is also a huge potential investor, able to invest real capital in the development of the domestic industry.
Insurance is related to the economic need for subjects to have reserve funds as an obligatory element of social reproduction in connection with unforeseen phenomena and accidents.
^
44) Limitation and securitization
Risk mitigation can be carried out by various methods, including through the use of methods such as diversification, securitization, and limiting.
Securitization - splitting a lending operation into two parts
(development of loan conditions and conclusion of an agreement; lending) with the implementation of each of these parts by various banks.
Limitation - establishment limit sizes investments, consignments of purchased goods, loans issued, etc.
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45) Structure of the illegal economy
In general, the shadow economy can be defined as an area in which economic activity is carried out outside the law, i.e. transactions are made without the execution of the law, legal norms and formal rules of economic life.
The illegal economy includes:
The informal economy is legal economic activity within which there is a place to be sheltered in order to minimize the costs of pro-in goods and services.
Criminal economics - economic activities related to the direct violation of laws, criminal and civil code and infringement of property rights. Mafia structures are engaged in this type of business (pro-in and sale of weapons, prostitution, pro-in and sale of alcoholic beverages).
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46) The price of obeying the law in Russia
"price of obedience to the law" - the costs of law-abiding behavior. An entrepreneur in a legal business must bear the one-time "access costs" associated with obtaining the right to engage in a certain type of economic activity. Having received official sanction for his business, he must constantly bear the costs of "continuing to operate within the law": paying taxes and social payments, obeying bureaucratic regulation of production standards, complying with mandatory norms in managing personnel, incurring losses due to inefficient litigation in resolving conflicts or collection of debts. 21.7% of compliance costs are for taxes, 72.7% for other legally required purposes, and the remaining 5.6% are utility costs. In other words, for every $100 a small manufacturing firm must pay to stay within the law, $22 is for taxes, $73 for other legally required purposes, and $5 for utilities.
Taxes are not the main problem, and tax policy determines the choice - to act within the law or illegally. The core of the problem is other legally required expenses. Business people have to obey a myriad of rules, from filling out endless paperwork in government offices to strict administration of their staff. It seems that this is what has a decisive influence on the choice between doing business within the law or illegally.
Making a choice in favor of an illegal organization, the entrepreneur gets rid of the "price of obedience to the law", but is forced to pay the "price of illegality".
Taxes on legal activities apply to large and the largest legal business. For them to hide activity from tax office state is impossible. However, since this sector is the main source of income for the state, it, using the political lobby, seeks to reduce tax burden to secure for themselves various economic privileges and tax breaks. If this tactic succeeds, then competition is limited and an artificial environment is created for the functioning of the legal sector. Thus, an increase in taxes leads to a decrease in the efficiency of the legal sector and further widens the gap between it and the competitive sector. shadow economy. The situation in Russia is much more complicated: it is quite difficult to single out purely legal and purely illegal sectors of the economy. Almost every enterprise, in one proportion or another, has both legal and illegal activities. Why do bad laws rule in Russia? The fact is that the government is mainly concerned with the redistribution of existing income, and not with the creation of new wealth. Therefore, the best minds of the country and the energy of entrepreneurs are spent not on achieving real progress, but on waging wars of redistribution. As a result, it turns out that there is no equality of people before the law, because for some laws promise privileges, while for others they are not available.
The costs of obedience to laws strongly influence the tactics and strategy of a business, determine both the methods of doing business and the results in any production technology. These costs change the allocation of resources and increase production costs in general, limit the mobility of factors of production, increase transaction costs. Regardless of the effectiveness of the technologies used, it changes the profitability of firms. The prosperity of a company depends less on how well it performs and more on the costs imposed on it by law. The entrepreneur who is better at manipulating these costs or dealings with officials is more successful than the one who is only concerned with production.
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47) The cost of registering legal entities in 3rd world countries
Costs for registering a legal entity in 3rd world countries
| country | Time spent (days) | Costs in cash (in % of annual profit) |
| Bolivia | 15-30 | 0,3-3 |
| Brazil | 31-60 | 3-8 |
| Chile | 12-65 | 3-6 |
| Ecuador | 60-240 | 15-24 |
| Mexico | 83-240 | - |
| Uruguay | 75-90 | 6-160 |
| Guatemala | 179-525 | 4-9 |
| Venezuela | 170-310 | 6-24 |
Selective risk - the risk of choosing the wrong securities for investment in comparison with other types of securities when forming a portfolio. This risk is associated with an incorrect assessment of the investment qualities of securities.
Time risk - the risk of issuing, buying or selling securities at the wrong time, which inevitably entails losses.
There are also more general patterns in the development
th and filled stock markets, such as seasonal fluctuations (securities of trading, agricultural and other seasonal enterprises), cyclical fluctuations (movement of securities prices in various phases of macroeconomic reproduction cycles).
Risk legislative changes- a risk that can lead, for example, to the need to re-register issues and cause significant costs and losses for the issuer and investor. The issue of securities risks becoming invalid, the legal status of intermediaries in transactions with securities may change adversely, etc.
Liquidity risk - the risk associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of securities due to changes in the assessment of its quality. Now it is one of the most common in the Russian market.
Credit business risk - the risk that the issuer that issued debt securities will be unable to pay interest on them and (or) the principal amount of the debt.
Inflationary risk - the risk that, with high inflation, the income received by investors from securities depreciate, in terms of real purchasing power faster than they grow, the investor incurs real losses. In world practice, it has long been noted that a high level of inflation destroys the securities market, although quite a few ways have been developed to reduce inflationary risk. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Interest risk is the risk of losses that investors may incur due to changes in interest rates in the market. As you know, an increase in the market interest rate leads to a decrease in the market value of securities, especially bonds with a fixed interest. With an increase in the interest rate, a mass “dumping” of securities issued at lower (fixed) interest rates and under the terms of the issue early accepted back by the issuer may also begin.
Interest risk is borne by an investor who has invested in medium- and long-term fixed-interest securities with a current increase in the average market interest compared to a fixed level (i.e., the investor could receive an increase in income due to an increase in interest, but cannot release his funds invested under the above conditions).
The interest rate risk is borne by the issuer issuing medium- and long-term fixed-interest securities with the current decrease in the average market interest compared to the fixed level (i.e. the issuer could raise funds from the market at a lower interest rate, but it is already associated with the terms of issuing securities papers).
In an inflationary economy with a rapid rise in interest rates, this type of risk is also important for short-term securities.
Callable risk - the risk of loss for an investor if the issuer calls callable bonds due to the excess of a fixed level of interest payments on them over the current market interest.
Political, social, economic, etc. risks - investments in securities of enterprises under the jurisdiction of countries with an unstable social and economic situation, with unfriendly relations with the country of which the investor is a resident. In particular, political risk is the risk of financial losses due to changes in the political system, the alignment of political forces in society, and political instability.
Regional risk is a risk that is especially characteristic of mono-food districts. So, in the early 80s, the economy of the states of Texas and Oklahoma (gas and oil production) experienced difficulties due to falling oil and gas prices. Several major regional banks went bankrupt. Undoubtedly, investors who invested their funds in the securities of the economy of these regions suffered significant losses.
During a crisis of power, regional risks may arise in connection with the political and economic separatism of individual regions. High level regional risk is also associated with the depressed state of the economy in a number of areas.
Industry risk - the risk associated with the specifics of individual industries. From the standpoint of this type of risk, all industries can be divided into those subject to cyclical fluctuations, dying, stable, and rapidly growing.
Industry risks are manifested in changes in the investment quality and market value of securities and the corresponding losses of investors, depending on whether the industry belongs to one type or another and the correctness of the assessment of this factor by investors.
The risk of an enterprise (financial and non-financial) is a risk similar to the industry and largely derived from it. At the same time, the type of behavior of the enterprise contributes to the change in risks. This can be a conservative enterprise that does not pursue a strategy of expansion, universalization and prefers, having occupied one or several niches in the market, to receive all the benefits from the maximum specialization of its work, high quality products (services) and a stable clientele. A different degree of risk will be inherent in the securities of an aggressive enterprise, perhaps just created. And, finally, the behavior of the enterprise may be characterized by moderation, which allows combining aggressive and conservative types of behavior.
Enterprise risk is of great importance in the Russian stock market(many enterprises are unprofitable, among issuers there is a large proportion of new enterprises, 60-80% of which usually do not survive). The risk of enterprises also includes the risk of fraud (creation of false enterprises, companies to fraudulently attract funds from the population, joint-stock companies for a speculative bull run).
Currency risk - the risk associated with investments in foreign currency securities, due to changes in the foreign exchange rate.
Capital risk is the risk of a significant deterioration in the quality of a portfolio of securities, which leads to the need for large-scale write-offs of losses and, as a result, to significant losses and may affect the bank's capital, causing the need to replenish it by issuing new securities.
Delivery risk is the risk of the seller failing to fulfill its obligations to deliver securities on time. This risk is especially great when conducting speculative transactions in securities based on short sales (the seller sells a security that he does not have available and which he is only going to purchase by the time of delivery). The risk can also be realized for technical reasons (imperfection of the depositary and clearing network).
Operational risk - the risk of losses arising from malfunctions in the operation of computer systems for processing information related to securities, poor quality of work of technical personnel, violations in the technology of securities transactions, computer fraud, etc.
It should be noted that with any investment of capital there is always a risk. The investment risks are divided into the following types:
- Risk of lost profit;
- The risk of reducing the expediency;
- Risk of direct financial costs.
Risk of direct lost profits- this is the risk of shortfall in profit due to the failure to implement certain measures (for example, insurance, hedging, etc. ..)
Return risk may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on investments, deposits, loans, etc. The risk of a decrease in profitability has such varieties as interest rate risks and credit risks.
To interest risks include the possibility of loss of income by commercial banks, credit institutions, investment institutions as a result of the excess of interest rates paid by them compared to those received for loans.
Credit risk- this is the danger of non-payment by borrowers of debts and interest due to the creditor. Credit risk is also a kind of risk of direct financial losses.
In addition, the risk of direct financial losses includes exchange risks, selective risks and bankruptcy risks.
Exchange risks- this is the risk of losses from exchange operations, for example, the risk of non-payment for commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission fees to a brokerage firm, etc.
Selective risks- these are the risks of incorrect selection of types of investments, types of securities for investment in comparison with other opportunities for investing capital.
Bankruptcy risk represents a risk of complete loss of capital and inability to pay for the obligations assumed due to the wrong choice of capital investments.
Estimating the riskiness of income is the basis for making rational decisions about investing money. Risk is a measure of the volatility or uncertainty of returns, which in turn consists of expected returns or returns on investment.
Various investments bring miscellaneous income. The ratio of risk and income is such that the return on invested money must proportionally correspond to the riskiness of the deposit.
Rice. 2.4. The ratio of risk and income.
Low risk is associated with low returns. High - with high. When there is no risk, investors receive income Y3, with a risk equal to X1, income will be Y2, with a risk level of X2, investors will receive income Y1.
In finance, risk is defined by the level of volatility in expected returns.
The magnitude of the risk, or degree of risk, is measured by two criteria:
- Average expected value;
- The variability of possible results.
Average expected value- this is the value of the magnitude of the event, which is associated with the uncertainty of the situation. The mean expected value is a weighted average of all possible outcomes, where the probability of each outcome is used as the frequency or severity of the corresponding value.
The mean expected value measures the outcome we hope for on average.
Example. A well-known situation when, when investing in the implementation of a project event out of 100 cases:
In 40 cases, profit was received - 11 thousand UAH. (Probability 40%).
In 36 cases - 20 thousand UAH. (Probability 36%).
In 24 cases - 12 thousand UAH. (Probability 24%).
The average expected value of profit from the implementation of project activity A will be:
11 * 0.40 +20 * 0.36 +12 * 0.24 = 14.48 thousand UAH.
Suppose a similar calculation was made for project activity B and the following values were obtained:
18 * 0.3 +20 * 0.5 +25 * 0.2 = 20.4 thousand UAH.
Comparing the two amounts of expected profit, we see that when investing in project activity A, the amount of profit received ranges from 11 to 20 thousand hryvnias, while the average value is 14.48 thousand hryvnias; In the project event B - the amount of profit received ranges from 18 to 25 thousand hryvnias, and the average value is 20.4 thousand hryvnias.
Therefore, the average value is a generalized quantitative characteristic and does not allow making a decision in favor of any investment option.
For the final decision, it is necessary to measure the variability of indicators or the measure of fluctuations in a possible result.
Variability is the amount of fluctuation that happens to many values when they deviate from the characteristic mean.
To measure variability in practice, two closely related indicators are used: dispersion and standard deviation.
Dispersion is the weighted average of the squared deviations of the actual results from the expected averages.
X is the expected value for each case of observations;
X is the average expected value;
n is the number of observation cases (frequency).
as the square root of the dispersion according to the formula:
Dispersion and standard deviation are a measure of absolute variability. In addition to these two indicators, the coefficient of variation is used in the analysis.
This is the ratio of the standard deviation to the arithmetic mean, which shows the degree of deviation of the obtained values:
V - coefficient of variation,%;
G - standard deviation;
X is the average expected value.
The coefficient of variation is a relative value, and the absolute values of the indicators do not affect its value. The coefficient of variation varies from 0 to 100%. The larger the coefficient, the greater the variability of the trait.
Example. The standard deviation is equal to when investing capital:
For project A:
For project B:
For project A: 
For project B: 
The coefficient of variation in the implementation of project activity B is significantly less than in the implementation of project activity A, which makes it possible to make a decision in favor of investing in project B.<.i>
There are other, simplified methods for determining the degree of risk.
From the investor's point of view, quantitatively, risk characterizes the probabilistic assessment of the maximum and minimum amount of income that can be obtained as a result of investments. Moreover, the greater the range between these values with an equal probability of occurrence of events, the higher the degree of risk.
Then, to calculate the indicators of dispersion, standard deviation and variation, the following formulas are used:
The probability of obtaining maximum profit (income, profitability);
- maximum value profit (income, profitability);
X - average, expected value of profit (income, profitability);
- the probability of obtaining a minimum profit (income, profitability);
- the minimum amount of profit (income, profitability);
G - standard deviation;
v - coefficient of variation.
Example. Choose the least risky investment option out of the two given below.
First option. Profit with an average value of 15 thousand UAH. ranges from 10 to 20 thousand UAH. The probability of obtaining the minimum profit is 20%, the maximum - 30%.
Second option. Profit with an average value of 20 thousand UAH. ranges from 15 to 25 thousand UAH. The probability of obtaining the minimum profit is 40%, the maximum - 30%.
Comparison of the values of the coefficients of variation shows that a lower degree of risk is inherent in the second variant of capital investment.
Solution of problems investment risk possible through the implementation of various means. Such means are avoidance, retention, transfer, risk reduction.
Risk avoidance achieve by refusing to implement a project that is associated with a high level of risk. However, in this case, the investor loses at the same time the chance of making a profit from the implementation of this project.
Risk retention provides for the transfer of risk to the investor, that is, he must cover the possible loss of capital from an unsuccessful investment.
Risk transfer means that the investor transfers the risk to another, for example, to an insurance company.
Risk Reduction is a reduction in the probability and volume of losses.
The choice of specific means related to the solution of risk problems is based on the observance of certain principles:
- 1st principle - you can take risks only within the limits that your own capital allows;
- 2nd principle - it is necessary to carry out an analysis investment projects taking into account the consequences of the risk;
- 3rd principle - the risk of investing a large amount of money to obtain a small benefit is considered unjustified.
Implementation first principle means that the investment of capital must be preceded by an analysis, which consists of the following steps:
1) determination of the maximum possible damage during the implementation of the project (Umax);
2) comparison of the amount of losses in terms of the amount of capital invested in the project (Kn);
3) comparison of the amount of losses with the volume of all financial resources(Fr) a capital investor;
4) determination on the basis of the mentioned indicators of the risk factor ®. 
The value of this coefficient is different for different investment projects and it must be determined for each case separately.
However, there is a limit to the risk ratio, beyond which the investor is more likely to go bankrupt.
Implementation second principle means that after determining the risk ratio, the investor must decide in favor of the implementation of the investment project and take the risk, refuse to invest in the project or transfer responsibility for the risk to another person.
Action third principle involves determining the benefits for the investor from the implementation of the project in comparison with the investment of funds.
To reduce the degree of investment risk, various methods are used: diversification, limiting, insurance, etc. (See Fig. 2.5.). One of the most common is diversification.
Diversification- distribution of investment funds between separate objects that are not related to each other. Diversification contributes to the dispersion of risk and, in the aggregate, to a decrease in its magnitude.
Activities are based on the principle of diversification investment funds. Diversification reduces the risk of profit from entrepreneurial activity, if you deal with its various types.
Rice. 2.5. ways to reduce financial risk. 
Limitation- this is the establishment of certain restrictions on expenses, sales, lending, etc., which is an essential means of reducing risks.
Insurance provided by a decrease in investor income while avoiding or reducing the degree of risk. Insurance is also one of the common ways to avoid risks or reduce their impact. In the process of insurance, funds are redistributed between persons who insure deposits and persons who need payments from insurance funds.
securitization- this is the participation of two banks in the implementation of one project, and both banks perform different functions. One of them develops the conditions and concludes an agreement, the second provides a loan to the borrower.
Exchange risks represent the risk of losses from exchange transactions. These risks include the risk of non-payment on commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission fees of a brokerage firm, etc.
Selective risks(lat. selektio - choice, selection) is the risk of choosing the wrong types of capital investment, type of securities for investment in comparison with other types of securities when forming an investment portfolio.
Bankruptcy risk represents a danger as a result of the wrong choice of capital investment, the complete loss of the entrepreneur's own capital and its inability to pay for its obligations.
3. The risks associated with the form of organization of economic activity include:
· advance;
· turnover risks.
Advance risks arise at the conclusion of any contract if it provides for the delivery of finished goods against the buyer's money. The essence of the risk - the company - the seller (risk carrier) made certain costs during the production (or purchase) of the goods, which at the time of production (or purchase) were not covered by anything, i.e. from the position of the balance of the risk holder can be closed only by profit previous periods. If a company does not have an effectively established turnover, it always bears upfront risks, which are expressed in the formation of stocks of unsold goods.
Revolving risk- assumes the onset of a shortage of financial resources during the period of regular turnover: at a constant rate of product sales, the enterprise may experience different turnovers of financial resources in terms of speed.
Group of other types of risks extensive, but in terms of its financial consequences, it is not as significant as those discussed above. These include deposit risk (the possibility of non-return deposits, non-redemption of certificates of deposit), the risk of untimely implementation of settlement and cash transactions (associated with an unsuccessful choice of a servicing commercial bank); counterfeit risk financial reporting; the risk of theft of certain types of assets; emission risk and others.
2. However, this is not always done consistently. So, a number of commercial risks that can give a positive result (especially trading) are classified as pure risks.
4. Unfortunately, there is no way to consistently divide risks into groups, categories, types, subspecies and varieties for the author.
And, as a result, the usefulness of such a classification is sharply reduced and the general logic of identifying and explaining risks is lost.
One more direction (fifth direction) risk classification is related to the classification of risk management methods.
Risk factors can be classified according to different criteria. A natural requirement for classification is its focus on methods of compensation or counteraction to risks. In [K35], it is proposed to correlate the classification of risk factors with the classification of risk management methods. This limits the possibility of formally combining essentially different factors in one classification grouping.
Depending on the sphere of occurrence, the risks of an enterprise of a production type can be divided into internal and external [K35].
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Rice. 3. Risk classification
To external include factors due to reasons not directly related to the activities of the enterprise itself:
political;
socio-economic;
ecological;
· scientific and technical.
Internal risk factors are considered to be factors that appear due to or generated by the activities of the enterprise itself.
External risks
Political risk factors.
Political risk factors include:
§ the stability of political power both at the federal and regional levels (favorable or unfavorable environment for the functioning of enterprises, the possibility of revising property relations, etc.);
§ possibility of local ethnic and political conflicts;
§ contradictions in the delimitation of rights and responsibilities between federal and regional authorities;
§ separatist currents in a number of regions and republics of Russia;
§ establishment of restrictions on the movement of goods and capital.
The consequence of political risk factors is the "flight" of capital from the region, the curtailment of the economic activity of enterprises, the growth of stagnation in the economy.
Socio-economic risks.
Socio-economic risk factors include:
§ changes in tax regulations;
§ increase in interest rates;
§ devaluation (rate fluctuations) of the ruble;
§ changes in the rules of currency circulation;
§ increase in tariffs for transportation, energy, etc.;
§ fluctuations in prices for raw materials, materials, components;
§ return request borrowed money caused by changes in the expectations of creditors;
§ emergence in the region of new economic entities with more attractive conditions, etc.
The consequence of such risks is a sharp change in the situation on the markets, a drop in effective demand for the company's products, an increase in competition from other business entities.
Environmental risks.
Environmental risks include the following factors:
§ stricter requirements for environmentally friendly production;
§ introduction of more stringent sanitary and other standards;
§ changes in the regional environmental situation;
§ restrictions on the use of local natural resources;
§ requirements for deduction of part of the profits for environmental protection measures.
The consequence of environmental risks is an increase in the cost of production and a decrease in its competitiveness.
Scientific and technical risks.
Scientific and technical risks are caused by the emergence of innovations in the production of goods from competitors, causing cost reduction or the emergence of new replacement goods.
The consequence of this type of risk is the displacement of enterprises with traditional products from the market.
Internal risks
Operational risks
a) Risks of the main production activity.
The risks of the main production activity include:
§ violation of technological discipline;
§ accidents, fires, catastrophes;
§ unscheduled shutdowns of equipment and interruptions of the technological cycle of the enterprise, etc.
The result is a shortfall in profits and direct losses.
b) Risks of auxiliary production activities.
The risks of auxiliary production activities include:
§ power outages;
§ lengthening of repair terms;
§ breakdowns and accidents of auxiliary systems;
§ shortcomings in the auxiliary economy.
The result is a decrease in production volume.
c) Support activity risks.
Supporting activity risks include:
§ failures in the operation of services that ensure the uninterrupted functioning of the main and auxiliary production (storage facilities, transport economy, etc.);
§ failures in the operation of information systems, etc.
Consequence - worsening economic situation enterprises due, for example, to insufficient patent protection of manufactured products, delays in decision-making due to delays in the necessary information.
Risks of reproductive activity
The risks of reproductive activity are mainly related to:
investment activity;
· Recruitment, training and promotion processes.
The result is a decrease in the competitiveness of products and an outflow of qualified personnel.
Circulation risks
The risks in the sphere of circulation are due to:
Violation by allied enterprises of schedules for the supply of raw materials and components;
· unmotivated refusal of wholesalers to supply or pay for ordered products;
bankruptcy of enterprises (business partners), etc.
Management risks
a) at the level of strategic decision-making:
Wrong choice of enterprise goals;
Incorrect assessment of the strategic potential of the enterprise;
· an erroneous forecast of the development of the general economic situation in the country.
b) at the level of tactical decision making:
the possibility of distortion or partial loss of meaningful information in the transition from strategic to tactical planning;
Mismatch of tactical decisions with strategic ones.
c) at the level of operational decision-making.
Conclusion: The above classification allows not so much to list all risk factors as to create a certain system that would allow not to miss individual factors when analyzing the overall risk and risk profile of a manufacturing enterprise.
Thus, consideration of the types of classifications allows us to note the following.
1. There is an active process of theoretical understanding of commercial risk as a generalized concept of risk present in any business activity. An integral part of this process is an attempt by a number of researchers to consolidate the understanding of the issue of a general classification of risks.
2. A systematic approach to the identification and analysis of risks has been strengthened. The difficulty lies in the search for a system-forming principle that allows organizing the identified risks in such a way that the classification becomes available for practical application.
3. The need for risk classification is so urgent that none of the questions concerning a particular risk can be resolved without determining its place in common system commercial risk.
4. There is a rich variety both in the names of the risks identified by the authors and in the definitions of their content. It is sometimes striking that there is a wide range of opinions about the spreading of risks into groups, in determining the level of their subordination.
5. The leadership in the development of the topic of risks belongs to the banking direction. Its productivity is determined by research, coming from the need to solve specific practical tasks management of the balance sheet structure and profit of the bank, the need for a deeper penetration of top managers into the body of the bank through the system internal control in order to realize hidden reserves of efficient bank management.
In this regard, the problematic approach to risk classification presented in the article is of interest. The problematic approach is presented on the example of credit risk.
The essence of the approach is that the source of risk is public relations. For a systematic analysis of public relations from this point of view, it is proposed to base the classification of commercial risks relation between the whole and its part.
The relationship between the whole and the part makes it possible to uniformly classify the commercial risks of each economic entity based on the following levels of the system (Fig. 4):
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Rice. 4. The procedure for developing a risk classification
Accordingly, commercial relations:
· "element - element, function, structure, figure" - this is a specific area of risks;
· "function - element, function, structure, figure" - this is a generic area of risks, etc.
All commercial risks are proposed to be divided into natural, country, market and business.
Natural Risks connected with natural processes in the environment around us material world. These risks are associated with natural conditions business, natural disasters: damages from normal wear and tear, failure material support commercial activities.
Country risks are formed by the state of affairs in the countries of business orientation. Country risks for Russian residents are the conditions for entrepreneurship in the specific circumstances of the interaction of all spheres of social reproduction in Russia (material, organizational, informational, personnel). For residents doing business abroad, country risks are associated with the state of affairs in foreign countries.
Market risks are determined both by the state of a specific profile market (local, regional, all-Russian), and by intermarket interactions.
Business risks- these are the risks of production, distribution, exchange and consumption of the product of an economic entity.
There are at least two entities involved in a commercial transaction. Both are in the zone of their business and market risks.
The principal set of risks is always the same (curly, structural, functional, elemental), the specifics are determined only by the type of their activity.
A significant part of business risks is determined by the internal processes of a commercial entity. These include:
curly risks;
structural risks;
Functional risks (technological, financial, economic, consumer);
elemental risks (resource, product).
So, four levels of commercial risks are distinguished. Their implementation at any given moment depends on the dynamics of the relationship. economic entities both within each individual level and on interlevel planes.
In order to constantly monitor these processes, it is proposed to apply modeling using a risk matrix and risk assessment at any time during the project implementation.
Group of modules forming risk
| R - risks | Group of natural risk modules | Group of country risk modules | Group of market risk modules | Group of business risk modules |
| Business relationship level | 13) Business R-Natural R | 14) Business R-country R | 15) Business R- Market R | 16) Business R- Business R |
| Level market relations | 9) Market R-natural R | 10) Market R-country R | 11) Market R- market R | 12) Market R-Business R |
| Level of country relations | 5) Country R-natural R | 6) Country R-country R | 7) Country R- market R | 8) Country R- business R |
| Natural relationship level | 1) Natural R-natural R | 2) Natural R-country R | 3) Natural R- market R | 3) Natural R- business R |
Based on preliminary analysis loan application a "map" is formed and risk zones with the highest level (degree) of stress are determined. Part of the tension is removed by risk limiting techniques, and the rest - by an insurance reserve.
For example, for a client applying for a loan, the analysis starts immediately from the 16th module and the determination of creditworthiness ratios is carried out. Modules 15 and 12 are partially used for the project submitted for lending.
1.3. The concept of risk management
Risk management- the concept is very broad, covering a variety of problems associated with almost all areas and aspects of management.
Risk management- one of the most important areas of modern management, associated with the specific activities of managers in conditions of uncertainty, a difficult choice of options for management actions.
The presence of risk is inevitable in market management, and the higher the level of risk, the greater, as a rule, ceteris paribus, the possible profit. In an unstable market economy, risky business is booming. Under these conditions, risk management plays a special role.
With the expansion of the zone of risky situations, risk management becomes an objectively necessary and very significant element of management, the most important prerequisite for business success.
Definition 1.2.Risk management is a system of risk assessment, risk management and financial relations arising in the course of business.
Risk management is risk management system and economic (primarily financial) relations arising in the process of this management, including strategy and tactics managerial relations.
Definition 1.3.Management of risks – special kind managerial activity, aimed at reducing the impact of risk on the results of the enterprise.
Each company is exposed to its own risks and uses its own specific methods to prevent them. The totality of such actions is the risk management system.
Under management strategy This refers to the directions and methods of using funds to achieve the goal.
Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for making the best decision.
Tactics is a set of practical methods and management techniques for achieving the stated goal of limiting risk in specific conditions.
Conventionally, the risk management system consists of two subsystems: a controlled subsystem (object of control) and a control subsystem (subject of control).
Control object- risky investments and economic relations between business entities in the process of implementing the decision.
Subject of management- a group of managers (deputy head for financial matters, financial manager, etc.) who make decisions on enterprise management. In risk management, such leaders are also called decision makers (DMs).
The risk management management system is provided by the work information system, which includes various kinds of information: statistical, commercial, financial, etc. It is the completeness and quality of this information that largely determines the quality of the decision, and, consequently, the magnitude of the possible risk.
Risk management is based on the organization of work to determine and reduce the degree of risk.
The risk management activity of an entrepreneur is called risk policy.
Definition 1.4. Under risk policy is understood as a set of measures aimed at reducing the risk of erroneous decision-making already at the time of its adoption and reducing possible Negative consequences these decisions at other stages of the firm's operation.
The definition of risk policy is somewhat broader than risk management and includes it.
Unfortunately, in economics and practice of management, in essence, there are no well-elaborated provisions on economic risk. Extremely poorly developed risk assessment methods in relation to certain production situations and activities, there are no common practical advice on ways and means to reduce and prevent risk.
Although there are certain types entrepreneurial activities in which the risk can be calculated, assessed and where the methods for determining the degree of risk have been worked out both theoretically and practically. This is primarily property, health and life insurance, as well as lottery and gambling. It is clear that in these cases we are talking about relatively narrow, extremely specific types of entrepreneurial activity. Real business activity is very complex and diverse, and therefore it is very difficult to develop such risk assessment procedures that are suitable for many practical situations that arise in the decision-making process.
1.4. Goals and objectives of risk management
Definition 1.5. The purpose of risk management - in the broadest sense, it is the preservation of all or part of its resources or the receipt of the expected income in full as a result of the decision made.
Risk management tasks:
collection, analysis, processing and storage of information about the environment;
determination of the degree and cost of risks, strategies and methods of risk management;
· development of a program of risky decisions, organization of its implementation, control and analysis of results;
development of a risk management program investment activity;
implementation of insurance activities on risky decisions;
· issuance of guarantees on the surety of Russian and foreign companies, production of compensation for losses at their expense;
· maintaining appropriate accounting, statistical and operational reporting on risky decisions.
There are 10 rules management decisions, formulated by the famous American sociologist M. Rubinstein, which allow us to consider the problem of risk as a certain scientific and economic system with its own laws and rules.
1. Try to get an idea of the problem as a whole before going into details.
2. Don't make quick decisions until you have considered all possible options.
3. Doubt, even the most generally accepted truths should be distrustful and one should not be afraid to reject them.
4. Try to look at the problem before you from a variety of perspectives, even if the chances of success seem minimal.
5. Looking for a model or analogy, which will help you better understand the essence of the problem posed, presenting it in the form of a diagram or diagram.
6. Ask as many questions as possible, as it is correct question asked can sometimes radically change the content of the question.
7. Don't be satisfied with the first solution that comes to everyone's mind. Find its weaknesses and offer other solutions, comparing with the original solution.
8. Consult with someone before making a final decision.
9. Don't underestimate your intuition, although the leading role of logical thinking in the analysis of the problem remains the main one.
10. Every problem has its own point of view based on the individuality of each person.
Risk management has its own system of heuristic rules and techniques for making decisions under risk [R4]:
¨ you can not risk more than your own capital can afford;
¨ you should always think about possible consequences risk;
¨ a positive decision associated with risk is made only if there is no doubt;
¨ you can not risk a lot for the sake of a little;
¨ if there is doubt, negative decisions are made;
¨ You can’t think that there is always only one solution, perhaps there are other options.
It is advisable to build a risk classification according to the “three-species” risk classification:
at the place of occurrence of risks;
time of occurrence of risks;
due to risk.
1. Technology risk
The danger of getting a low-quality product in a particular technological process, associated with the ingress of low-quality materials into the technological process, random deviations from the standard conditions during processing during the production process of the product, errors in setting up machines, control errors, etc.
2. Economic risk
The danger of losses and losses due to changes in prices for materials and purchased products, as well as for manufactured products.
3. Financial risk
The danger of incurring losses associated with the placement of capital, errors in the choice of investment projects, fluctuations in securities rates, etc.
4. Organizational risk
The danger of losses associated with incompetent decisions of individual managers and the lack of an effective system of control over the activities of specialists at all levels of the production cycle, including the supply of raw materials and components.
5. Political risk
The risk of losses due to changes in the political situation, the emergence of new laws and regulations that change the possibility of acquiring raw materials, storing and marketing products, etc.
6. Security risk
Risk of loss due to insufficient security (fire, criminal, etc.) of production activities, storage, marketing, etc.
7. Information risk
Risk of losses due to errors in marketing research due to random data obtained in the study of markets for raw materials and components, sales finished products etc.
8. Resource risk
The risk of losses due to the occurrence of production downtime in the absence of the necessary resources, repair facilities, as well as the replacement of workers and employees in case of their illness.
9. Marketing risk
Danger of losses due to overstocking of warehouses due to fluctuations in sales policy.
List of terms and definitions
1. Franchising- granting the integrating company the right to use the trademark, know-how, material and technical resources belonging to the integrator.
2. Risk- a generalized subjective characteristic of a decision-making situation under conditions of uncertainty, reflecting the possibility of occurrence and significance for the subject of decision-making of damage as a result of the consequences of making a particular decision.
3. Risk- an event that causes damage to the economic activity of the enterprise.
Literature
1. Kleiner G.B. and others. Enterprise in an unstable economic environment: risks, strategies, safety / G.B. Kleiner, V.L. Tambovtsev, R.M. Kachalov / Under the general. ed. S.A. Panov. - M.: JSC "Publishing House" Economics ", 1997. - 288 p.
2. Bachkai T. and others. Economic risk and methods of its measurement: - TRANS. from Hung. M.: Economics, 1979. - 184 p.
3. Algin A.P. Risk and its role in public life. - M.: Thought, 1989. - 188 p.
4. Buzzel R.D. and other information and risk in management. – M.: Finstatinform, 1994. – 95 p.
5. Mushik E., Muller P. Methods for making technical decisions: - TRANS. with him. M.: Mir, 1990.
6. Rotar V.I., Sholomitsky A.G. On risk assessment in insurance activities // Economics and Mathematical Methods. 1996. V.32. Issue 1. pp.96-105.
7. Kleiner G.B. Risks industrial enterprises(how to reduce and compensate them) // Russian Economic Journal. 1994. No. 56. P.85-92.
8. Kleiner G.B., Tambovtsev V.L. Enterprise under Uncertainty // Man and Labor. 1993. No. 2, pp. 81-84.
Risk- is the probability of unforeseen losses, shortfall in profit or income compared to the predicted option due to a random change in economic conditions or unfavorable circumstances.
Risk classification.
In accordance with the areas of entrepreneurial activity, they usually distinguish: production, commercial, financial and insurance risk.
financial risk- the risk associated with the probability of loss of financial resources (cash).
Financial risks are divided into two types:
1) risks associated with the purchasing power of funds;
2) risks associated with capital investment (investment risks).
The risks associated with the purchasing power of funds include the following types of risks: inflationary and deflationary risks, currency risks, liquidity risk.
Inflationary risk- the risk that when inflation rises, cash incomes depreciate in terms of real purchasing power faster than they grow. In such conditions, the entrepreneur bears real losses.
deflationary risk- the risk that with the growth of deflation, there is a fall in the price level, a deterioration in the economic conditions for entrepreneurship and a decrease in income.
Currency risk- the risk of currency losses associated with a change in the exchange rate of one foreign currency against another in the course of foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions.
Liquidity risks- the risk associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and use value.
Investment - include the following sub-types of risks:
1) lost profit;
2) decrease in profitability;
3) direct financial losses.
Lost profit risk- the risk of indirect (collateral) financial damage (lost profit) as a result of the failure to carry out any activity (for example, insurance, hedging, investment, etc.).
Return risk may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, deposits and loans. Portfolio investments are associated with the formation of an investment portfolio and represent the acquisition of securities and other assets.
The risk of decreasing profitability includes the following varieties: interest rate risks, credit risks.
To interest risks concerns the danger of losses that may be incurred commercial banks, credit institutions, investment institutions as a result of the excess of interest rates paid by them on borrowed funds over the rates on loans granted. Interest risks also include the risks of losses that investors may incur due to changes in dividends on shares, interest rates on bonds, certificates and other securities in the securities market.
An increase in the market rate of interest leads to a decrease in the market value of securities, especially bonds with a fixed interest rate. With an increase in interest, a massive dumping of securities issued at lower fixed interest rates and, under the terms of issue, early accepted back by the issuer, may also begin.
The interest rate risk is borne by an investor who has invested in medium-term and long-term fixed-interest securities with a current increase in the average market interest compared to the fixed level. In other words, the investor could receive an increase in income due to an increase in interest, but cannot release his funds invested on the above conditions.
The interest rate risk is borne by the issuer issuing mid-term and long-term fixed-interest securities in circulation at the current decrease in the average market interest in comparison with the fixed level. In other words, the issuer could raise funds from the market at a lower interest rate, but he is already bound by the issue of securities he made. This type of risk, given the rapid growth of interest rates in the face of inflation, is also important for short-term securities.
Credit risk- the danger of non-payment by the borrower of the principal and interest due to the creditor. Credit risk also includes the risk of such an event that the issuer that issued debt securities will be unable to pay interest on them or the principal amount of the debt.
Credit risk can also be a type of direct financial loss risk.
Risks of direct financial losses include the following varieties: stock risk, selective risk, bankruptcy risk.
Exchange risks represent the risk of losses from exchange transactions. These risks include: the risk of non-payment on commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission fees of a brokerage firm, etc.
Selective risks(lat. - choice, selection) - these are the risks of choosing the wrong method of investing capital, the type of chain securities for investment in comparison with other types of securities when forming an investment portfolio.
Bankruptcy risk represents a danger as a result of the wrong choice of the method of investing capital, the complete loss by the entrepreneur of his own capital and his inability to pay for his obligations. As a result, the entrepreneur becomes bankrupt.
