Theory of long waves (theory of longwaves) is a theory of economic cycles, lasting from 40 to 60 years, developed by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev.
At least since the industrial revolution in England, economic development has been significantly influenced by large economic cycles, also known as "Kondratiev long waves" - in honor of their largest researcher, Russian economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. N. Kondratiev should have shared this honor with another outstanding economist of the 20th century, J. Schumpeter, the author of fundamental works " business cycles"and" Theory economic development". Kondratiev and Schumpeter were not the discoverers of large cycles. Their existence was noticed by W. Jevons (1884), K. Wixell (1898), M. Tugan-Baranovsky (1894) and many others. What is the merit of N.D. Kondratiev "In his analysis, he covered the entire history of capitalism, using the statistics of England, Germany and other countries. Kondratiev singled out two groups of economic processes: undulating (reversible) and evolutionary (irreversible), thereby developing the theory of long waves. It is the latter that determine the general direction of development (trend), while the former are cyclical.He made a serious attempt to combine cyclical processes into single system, highlighting:
- seasonal cycles (up to 1 year);
- small (2-4 years);
- commercial and industrial (7-11 years);
- long cycles (50-60 years).
This approach is now widely accepted. Table 2.1 gives a modern understanding of the system of business cycles.
Table 2.1. Conditional distribution of oscillations by wavelength
| Range, years |
Wavelength, years (arithmetic mean) |
Approximate values (approximation) |
|
| in fractions of a century | in years | ||
| 2-4 | 3 | 1/32 | 3,125 |
| 4-8 | 6 | 1/16 | 6,25 |
| 8-16 | 12 | 1/8 | 12,5 |
| 16-32 | 24 | 1/4 | 25 |
| 32-64 | 48 | 1/4 | 50 |
It was the breadth and universality of the approach that predetermined the high appreciation of his work by the outstanding economists of the 20th century J. Keynes, S. Kuznets, W. Mitchell, I. Fischer, J. Schumpeter. Thanks to Kondratiev, the great cycles of the conjuncture were universally recognized.
The next step in the development of the theory of long waves was made by J. Schumpeter, who connected cycles with innovations (innovations) and their unevenness. Thus, we got an explanation of the problem of uneven rates economic growth, state activity and its impact on economic growth rates, and many others.
What are long business cycles? Most economists agree that large cycles are inherent in the industrial system, and therefore the beginning of the first cycle coincides with the beginning of the industrial revolution (about 1790). The peak of the first wave falls approximately on 1813-1815. The second wave covers the period from the end of the 40s of the last century to the 90s (the peak of the second wave is approximately 1870), the third wave covers the period from the end of the 90s of the XIX century to the end of the 30s of the XX (peak - around 1920), the fourth wave lasted from the end of the 30s to the end of the 80s of the XX century; the beginning of the last, fifth wave falls on the 90s of the XX century. Each new wave is caused by major shifts in the development of productive forces, the use of fundamentally new technologies, which gradually causes the reconstruction of other industries, major structural shifts in the economy, changes in the functions of the state, a change in technological leader states, fluctuations in key performance indicators, etc. In order to visualize large waves more clearly, we present a simplified version of the scheme (Table 2.2) by the English economist X. Freeman.
Table 2.2. Some Characteristics of Great Economic Waves
| Large cycles |
Content | Main carriers industries |
Countries - technological leaders |
| I | Early fur- nization |
Textile pro- mentality and textile ma- tire building |
Netherlands, UK thania, belgium |
| II | Steam engine gatel and forest roads gi |
railways, construction, mechanical engineering |
UK, France, Belgium, Germany, USA |
| III | Electrotech- nick and heavy loe machine- structure |
Electricity ka, mechanical engineering nie, basic chi- mia |
Germany, USA, UK UK, France, etc. |
| IV | Mass production |
car-, tractor engineering, the production of vars long use, syn- thematic math rials |
USA, Germany and others EEC countries, Japan, Sweden and others |
| V | Informatics and telecommunications nications |
Electronics, computer, robotic structure, information mation services |
Japan, USA, EEC, Thai Wan, Korea, etc. |
In each wave, two main stages are distinguished: upward and downward (according to N. Kondratiev). What patterns do they have? Before and at the beginning? each wave, there are profound changes in the technique and production technologies, involvement in the world economic ties new countries, the growth of social upheavals (wars and revolutions). The upward stage is characterized by an acceleration in the rate of economic growth, an increase in the average rate of profit, wages, and a fall in prices. The second (downward) stage of a large cycle is characterized by a slowdown in economic growth, a fall in the average rate of profit, an increase in the average price level, a depression in agriculture, more sharp fluctuations industrial (medium) cycle. At the end of a big wave, the most significant technical discoveries and inventions fall. From the point of view of Kondratiev and especially Schumpeter, such changes in dynamics are explained by the fact that the widespread development of new technologies (which implies an increase in entrepreneurial activity) requires a rather significant structural restructuring of the economy, the search for new sources of raw materials and energy resources. The introduction of new technologies initially causes an increase in the return (profitability) of production factors. The productivity of labor and the marginal productivity of labor, capital, and land are growing. Accordingly, all types of income grow: wage, interest, entrepreneurial income, rent, quasi-rent (profit). Gradually, the possibilities of this generation of technology, developed resources are exhausted, and the law of diminishing returns begins to manifest itself with full force. The aggravation of the problems and contradictions of the economy stimulates the search for new solutions. That is why the discoveries "concentrate" in the down part of the big cycle, and their development gives impetus to a new wave.
N. Kondratiev, who analyzed 2.5 waves, considering the growth of social upheavals as a pattern of upward stages of a large cycle, illustrates it as follows historical events. The beginning of the I big cycle: the declaration of independence of the United States, the French bourgeois revolution, the Anglo-French war, the Russian-Turkish war, the Napoleonic wars, etc. The beginning of the II cycle: the revolution of 1848-1849 in France and Germany, in other countries, the Crimean War, the Civil the war in the USA, the Paris Commune, the formation of the German Empire, etc. The first half of the III large cycle: Spanish-American, Anglo-Boer, Russian-Japanese and other wars, World War I, revolutions in Russia, Germany, Turkey, Hungary, reorganization of the map of Europe according to the Versailles Peace. The first half of the IV cycle was accompanied by the Second World War, revolutions in China, a number of countries of Eastern Europe, the collapse of the colonial system and the reorganization of not only the map of Europe, but of the whole world. The beginning of the fifth great cycle of Kondratiev is accompanied by a new reorganization of the map of Europe: the liquidation of the socialist camp, the growth of conflicts on social grounds, and the change in the geopolitical situation in the world.
Thus, economic growth and socio-economic progress, expressed in the growth of well-being, culture, education of members of society, is uneven. It is accompanied by less or more profound fluctuations in the economy. Moreover, these fluctuations themselves initiate economic growth, that is, they are not only a consequence, but also a source of the latter. Social upheaval is not so much a consequence of growth, but the result of people's inability to recognize the need for change and adapt to it.
Basics economic theory. Lecture course. Edited by Baskin A.S., Botkin O.I., Ishmanova M.S. Izhevsk: Publishing House"Udmurt University", 2000.
Topic number 11. Cyclic development market economy.
Questions:
Business cycle: causes, characteristics and frequency
"Long", "medium" and "short waves" in the economy
The role of the state in the regulation of economic cycles.
Business cycle: causes, characteristics and frequency
Consideration of economic processes in motion showed that they do not develop in a straight line, gradually gaining height. The graphic representation of their dynamics is characterized by peaks and lines, reflecting a more sluggish movement. This is due to the fact that the development process is an alternation of revolutionary and evolutionary periods.
Not all economists recognize cyclicity as an economic pattern, but cyclicity as a problem cannot but interest modern man.
Therefore, cyclicity can be considered as one of the ways of self-regulation of a market economy, since feature cyclicity - movement is not in a circle, but in a spiral, which is a form of progressive development.
The noted circumstance formed the basis of N.D. Kondratiev's hypothesis about the wave-like movement of the economy, called long wave theories, which was presented in a report read at the Academy of Sciences in 1926. Of his followers, the Austrian economist I. Schumpeter is the most famous, who provided additional arguments for this theory in the second half of the 20th century.
reproductive the cycle includes the following phases: a crisis; depression; revival; climb.
A crisis
production falls;
overproduction (overaccumulation) of industrial capital in all its functional forms: commodity; monetary; productive;
bankruptcy of industrial and commercial enterprises, primarily medium and small ones;
rising unemployment;
decline in living standards.
Depression characterized by the following features:
increasing the degree of exploitation;
capital grows by itself slowly and gradually;
production is expanding, but very little;
inventories are gradually dissipated;
investment capital adapts to new price proportions and new structural adjustments.
revival characterized by the following features:
more or less steady expansion of production;
profits increase rapidly.
Climb characterized by the fact that the starting point of the cyclical recovery is considered to be the restoration of the pre-crisis level of industrial activity:
the demand for labor is expanding;
unemployment dissolves;
rising wages;
the effective demand for consumer goods increases;
the market for the industries of the first division is expanding.
Long", "medium" and "short waves" in the economy.
The cycle is not regular, it can last from several years to several tens of years. In economic theory, cycles lasting up to 10 years are usually called "small" (small waves), up to 40-50 years - "large" (long waves). The duration of cycles depends on many factors; the time of renewal of fixed capital, the dynamics of market conditions, government intervention in the economy.
short cycles associated with the restoration of economic balance in consumer market. When a stable deficit is formed, production is re-profiled, a new proportionality is created, new structure National economy with regroupings within the existing productive forces. Such cycles usually last 3-4 years.
Average cycles(industrial cycles) are associated with changes in demand for equipment and facilities. The demand itself, its direction and magnitude turned out to be dependent on the introduction of a new technical and technological method of production. Its introduction and replication are usually carried out in 8-12 years, during which a new level of economic equilibrium of the system is achieved through the mechanism of capital overflow with subsequent investment. Such industrial cycles are analyzed in detail in Marxist literature.
Long cycles(waves). As the intensification of production gains momentum, it improves production by deepening previous scientific developments. Improvements are taking place, laying the foundation for a new industrial cycle (medium wave). However, at some stage, further improvement of production is no longer possible. Only innovations are possible, based on fundamentally new scientific discoveries, associated not with the improvement of existing technology, but with the emergence of new technology production. Under these conditions, it is useless to improve the old technical system, it is being disposed of. It is replaced by a completely different technical system, which is being improved over several years. industrial cycles. Then it also exhausts itself, and a new technological mode of production sets in, the duration of which, according to Kondratiev, is 45-60 years and which is called the long cyclic wave.
Kondratiev singled out 5 large cycles over 140 years of economic history:
1) from 1787-1792 to 1810-1817 – upward wave; from 1810-1817 to 1844-1851 – downward wave;
2) from 1844-1855 to 1870-1875. – upward wave; from 1870-1875 to 1890-1896 – downward wave;
3) from 1890-1896 to 1914-1920. – upward wave; from 1920 to 40s. – downward wave;
4) from the late 40s to the early 70s. – upward wave; since the 70s - all the 80s - a downward wave.
The modern cycle of development is characterized by the fact that in addition to the usual cyclical crises of general overproduction, there are so-called structural crises , which do not fit into the framework of one reproduction cycle. Structural crisis hits demand for products, which grows more slowly than the economy as a whole, and sometimes even shrinks completely. These industries include: ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy; coal industry.
Structural crises include: energy crisis; commodity crisis.
At present, in world economic science, the name of the famous Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev is associated with such concepts as "long waves of Kondratiev" or "big cycles of the Kondratiev conjuncture".
In the early 1920s, Kondratiev launched a broad discussion on the issue of long-term fluctuations under capitalism. At that time, there were still very strong hopes for a speedy revolution in the advanced capitalist countries, and therefore the question of the future of capitalism, of the possibility of its new rise, of reaching a higher stage of development, was extremely topical.
The discussion began with the work "The World Economy and Its Conjuncture During and After the War" published in 1922, in which Kondratiev suggested the existence of long waves in the development of capitalism. Despite the negative reaction of the majority of Soviet scientists to this publication, N.D. Kondratiev continued to consistently defend his position in the following works:
"Controversial issues of the world economy and the crisis (the answer to our critics)" - 1923
"Great cycles of conjuncture" - 1925
"On the question of large cycles of conjuncture" - 1926
"Large cycles of conjuncture: Reports and their discussion at the Institute of Economics" (together with Oparin D.I.) - 1928
Kondratiev's research and conclusions were based on empirical analysis a large number economic indicators various countries over rather long periods of time, covering 100-150 years. These indicators are: price indices, government debt securities, nominal wages, foreign trade turnover indicators, coal mining, gold mining, lead, iron production, etc.
None of the available methods of mathematical statistics can confirm with a sufficient degree of probability the presence of 50-year cycles over a period of 100-150 years, i.e. based on information containing a maximum of 2-3 fluctuations. Since no mathematical apparatus of time series analysis can confirm or disprove the existence of long cycles with sufficient probability, Kondratiev searched for additional information, trying to find properties and phenomena common to the corresponding phases of the long cycles he discovered.
By the beginning of the 1920s, world capitalism had experienced, according to Kondratiev's calculations, two and a half long waves:
rises: 1789-1814, 1849-1873, 1896-1920;
recessions: 1814-1849, 1873-1896.
Throughout the period under study, Kondratiev singled out "four empirical correctnesses". Two of them relate to the upward phases, one to the recession stage, and another pattern appears in each of the phases of the cycle.
1) At the origins of the upward phase, or at its very beginning, a profound change takes place in the whole life of capitalist society. These changes are preceded by significant scientific and technical inventions and innovations. In the upward phase of the first wave, these were: the development of the textile industry and the production of iron, which changed the economic and social conditions of society. In the upward phase of the second wave: the construction of railways, which allowed the development of new territories and the transformation of agriculture. The upward stage of the third wave is caused by the widespread introduction of electricity, radio and telephone. Prospects for a new rise Kondratiev saw in the automotive industry.
2) Upward phases are richer in social upheavals (revolutions, wars) than downward ones.
3) The downward phases have a particularly depressing effect on Agriculture. Low prices commodities during the recession drive up the relative value of gold, which encourages more gold to be mined. The accumulation of gold contributes to the exit of the economy from a protracted crisis.
4) Periodic crises (7-11-year cycle) seem to be strung on the corresponding phases of a long wave and change their dynamics depending on it - during periods of a long rise, more time is spent on "prosperity", and during periods of a long recession, crisis years become more frequent.
Statistical analysis of time series, and the selection of these empirical patterns led Kondratiev to substantiate the theory of the endogenous nature of long waves (the nature of their occurrence inherent in the capitalist economy). According to this theory, none of these "empirical correctnesses" arise by chance. The change in technology is caused by the demands of production, the creation of such conditions under which the application of inventions becomes possible and necessary. Wars and revolutions are the result of the created economic, social and political situation. The need for the development of new territories and the migration of the population is also the result of such circumstances. That is, the above phenomena do not play the role of random shocks that give rise to the next cycle, but are part of the mechanism inherent in capitalism that ensures its wave-like development. Each successive phase is the result of cumulative processes accumulated during the previous phase.
Endogenous mechanism of the ox according to Kondratiev.
ND Kondratiev in his work "Long waves of conjuncture" writes that undulating movements are a process of deviation from the equilibrium states to which the capitalist economy aspires. He raises the question of the existence of several equilibrium states, and hence the possibility of several oscillatory motions. Kondratiev explores the totality of undulating movements under capitalism and proposes to develop a general theory of oscillations.
According to Kondratiev, there are three types of equilibrium states:
1) "First order" equilibrium - between ordinary market demand and supply. Deviations from it give rise to short-term fluctuations with a period of 3-3.5 years, that is, cycles in commodity stocks.
2) "Second order" equilibrium, achieved in the process of formation of production prices by intersectoral transfer of capital, invested mainly in equipment. Deviations from this balance and its restoration Kondratiev connects with cycles of average duration.
3) Equilibrium of the "third order" concerns the "basic material goods": industrial buildings, infrastructural structures, as well as a skilled labor force serving a given technical mode of production. The stock of basic capital goods must be in balance with all the factors that determine the existing technical mode of production, with the existing sectoral structure of production, the existing raw material base and energy sources, prices, employment and public institutions, the state of the monetary system, etc.
Periodically, this balance is also disturbed and there is a need to create a new stock of "basic capital goods" that would satisfy the emerging new technical mode of production. According to Kondratiev, such a renewal of "basic capital goods", reflecting the movement of scientific and technological progress, does not occur smoothly, but in shocks and is the material basis for large cycles of the conjuncture. The renewal and expansion of "basic capital goods" that occurs during the upward phase of a long cycle radically changes and redistributes the productive forces of society. This requires huge resources in kind and in cash. They can only exist if they were accumulated in the previous phase, when more was saved than was invested.
In the upswing phase, the constant rise in prices and wages gave rise to a tendency among the population to spend more, during the recession, on the contrary, prices and wages fall. The first leads to the desire to save, and the second - to reduce purchasing power. The accumulation of funds also occurs due to the fall in investment during a period of general recession, when profits become low and the risk of bankruptcy increases.
It can be noted that such phenomena took place in the capitalist economy in the 80s, when there was an outflow of capital from the production sphere to the sphere of speculative exchange operations.
The decline in commodity prices according to Kondratiev leads to an increase in the relative value of gold. There is a desire to increase its production. The appearance of an additional monetary metal contributes to the growth of free loan capital, and when a sufficient amount of it accumulates, the possibility of a new radical restructuring of the economy is born.
The main elements of the internal endogenous mechanism of the long cycle according to Kondratiev are as follows:
1. The capitalist economy is a movement around several levels of equilibrium. The balance of "basic capital goods" (industrial infrastructure plus skilled labor) with all factors of economic and public life defines this technical method of production. When this balance is disturbed, it becomes necessary to create a new stock of capital goods.
2. The renewal of "basic capital goods" does not occur smoothly, but in jolts. Scientific and technical inventions and innovations play a decisive role in this.
3. The duration of a long cycle is determined by the average life of industrial infrastructure facilities, which are one of the main elements of the capital goods of society.
4. All social processes - wars, revolutions, population migrations - are the result of the transformation of the economic mechanism.
5. Replacing "basic capital goods" and recovering from a long recession requires the accumulation of resources in kind and monetary form. When this accumulation reaches a sufficient size, there is an opportunity for radical investments that bring the economy to a new upswing.
Main modern theories long waves.
Innovation theories.
One of the theories of long waves is the innovation theory. This theory was developed by the Austrian economist J. Schumpeter, who was one of the first to accept and apply the idea of Kondratieff cycles. He outlined his views in the book The Theory of Economic Development, published in 1913.
According to Schumpeter, under capitalism there is no profit other than net income from entrepreneurship, and most owners of capital do not receive profit, but only remuneration for their own work. But some entrepreneurs do not want to put up with this situation. They are more enterprising, enterprising and courageous than others, therefore they have the role of pioneers, introducing new goods and types of equipment into production, opening up new markets and sources of raw materials, organizing production in a new way. With the success of their undertakings, the reward is high entrepreneurial profit, as a payment for additional risk and high competence.
Following such entrepreneurs, an ever-growing group of followers rushes into new areas. Innovation covers an increasing number of interdependent industries. The economy begins a period of accelerated growth. It continues until innovation covers most of the production, at which point entrepreneurial profits begin to dissipate and finally disappear. In this case, the economy returns to the same state that it was before the rise. It does not follow from this that the cessation of the rise develops into a crisis. Schumpeter explains crises by the influence of external factors.
In addition to J. Schumpeter, the followers of the innovative direction in the theory of long waves include such scientists as Simon Kuznets, Gerhard Mensch, Alfred Kleinknecht, Jacob Van Dyne.
The theory of overaccumulation in the capital sector.
This concept of long waves was developed in the mid-70s at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the guidance of Professor Jay Forrester. He stated that the changes in the previous 20 years in the economy did not fit into the dynamics of the medium-term cycle, so attention was paid to long-term fluctuations. A complex mathematical model, the equations of which were derived as a result of a survey of businessmen, financiers, politicians, and then computer modeling was used.
For large cycles, according to researchers, are responsible for the processes occurring in industries that produce means of production. Briefly, this mechanism can be described as follows. Let us assume that the final product of the economy consists of two sectors: the production of capital goods and the production of consumer goods. The capital sector, which produces the means of production, supplies machinery and equipment not only to the industries that produce consumer goods, but also to itself. The growth in consumption causes an even faster growth in the means of production, that is, an accelerator operates between the two industries. According to the authors of the model, the value of this accelerator in real life is much greater than that required for equilibrium motion. This is due to the fact that the growth of capital in conditions of constant demand is accelerated by additional circumstances: speculation, reassessment of demand, changes in real interest on loans, various delays in supplies, and a pyramidal payment structure. All these factors contribute to overaccumulation in the capital sector. Orders first rise sharply, and then fall sharply. This is enough for the appearance of long fluctuations.
Theories related to the labor force.
This group of theories is based on the consideration of the theories of long waves from the point of view of the laws of the labor force. Basically, the followers of this theory have integrated the factor of the influence of the labor force on long waves with some other factor. One of these scientists is Christopher Freeman, who combined innovative ideas with employment and social aspects.
Freeman led a working group that conducted research in this area from 1970-1984. In their opinion, the central factor in the formation of long-term fluctuations in all spheres of economic life is innovation. However, employment acts not only as a consequence, but plays an active role as a switch of economic activity to the bottom position.
The mechanism by which busyness becomes such a switch can be described as follows. The introduction of new technologies brings new industries to life. In the early stages of pioneering technologies, the demand for labor is limited or intense. This is due to the fact that the volume of new production is not yet large and requires not mass, but especially skilled, unique labor. Production volumes are gradually increasing and the emphasis is on capital-saving technology, the demand for labor is beginning to increase. This growth continues until the demand for both labor and related goods is saturated. At the same time wages are rising and costs are rising. There is a need for labor-saving innovations. There is an outflow of labor force, lower wages, and general demand, that is, a recession in the economy.
price theories.
One of the proponents of the price direction in explaining long waves is Walt Whitman Rostow. According to Rostow, changes in the demand and supply of raw materials and foodstuffs, and accordingly the prices for them, affect innovation activity, which determines the sequence of leading industries and is itself dependent on them. In addition, demographic factors, housing construction, and changes in the structure of the labor force have a great influence. These three points are inextricably linked with each other. Separating and combining them, Rostow tries to integrate three directions in his theory of long waves: 1) agrarian-price, 2) innovation-investment, and 3) demographic. Next, Rostow analyzes the Kondratiev long waves, trying to trace the relationship of the three phenomena he singled out in each of the cycles. Also, the supporters of the price concept of long waves include the American scientist Brian Berry.
CONCLUSION
Further development of the theory of long waves is seen in the creation of a new theory containing all the main factors influencing this process, since most of the listed models suffer from the absence of such multifactoriality.
The theoretical concepts of long waves are important because they provide the necessary basis for assessing the state of the economy and predicting its future state.
According to the forecasts of most scientists, the top point of the rise was passed by the economy in the early 70s. Since the mid-1970s, the economy has been in a state of crisis.
Eastern University
in the discipline "History of economic doctrines"
on the topic: “the theory of “long waves” by N.D. Kondratiev”
Performed.
A market economy is characterized not only by small (up to 10 years), but also by large cycles with long-term trends (waves) lasting 50-60 years, including downward and upward phases.
The foundations of the theory of long-term fluctuations in the economy, or large cycles of the conjuncture, were laid at the beginning of the 20th century. There are five most well-known concepts of long waves:
Kondratiev (reproductive), Schumpeter (innovative), Trotsky (the concept of the crisis of the capitalist system), demographic, military cycles. The greatest contribution to the development of the theory of long waves was made by the great Russian economist N. D. Kondratiev, who published a number of works in the 1920s.
Briefly, the essence of the theory of long waves is as follows: the development of the capitalist economy is characterized by a successive alternation of periods of slow and accelerated growth, each lasting two to three decades. The main elements of the mechanism that reproduces long-term periodic fluctuations in the economy are the turnover of fixed capital with a long service life, the accumulation of free money capital, scientific and technological progress. Consequently, N. D. Kondratiev for the first time began to consider scientific and technical progress as an internal factor of long-term cyclicity. Having processed statistical data for 140 years on the average level of the dynamics of commodity prices, interest on capital, nominal wages, turnover foreign trade, mining and consumption of coal, production of iron and lead, N. D. Kondratiev identified three large cycles of the conjuncture: the first wave - from 1790 to 1850, the second - from 1851-1890, the third - from 1891, which in 1920 has entered a downward phase.
N. D. Kondratiev saw the main goal of his research in developing a methodology for long-term forecasting of trends in the development of the world capitalist economy, that is, he left behind capitalism the ability to develop, evolve over long cycles. However, these conclusions sounded in dissonance with the general enthusiasm at that time for the idea of the imminent and imminent collapse of the economic system of capitalism. Therefore, Kondratiev's theory of long waves was forgotten for a long time as harmful and untenable.
However, the merit of N. D. Kondratiev in the development of economic theory is great. First, he formulated the idea forecast plan(indicative planning, even in the West this has not happened yet). Now the entire planning system is a plan-forecast (foresee in order to manage). Secondly, in forecasting he made cost forecasts(there used to be material indicators). The combination of material and cost indicators made it possible to develop financial forecasts. Thirdly, N. D. Kondratiev suggested using deflators, introduced price statistics, which made it possible to see the dynamics of production. Fourth, introduced into economics current market analysis, i.e., an assessment of the current change in prices, the consumer basket. Fifth, developed the idea correlation of social and economic factors of economic growth, which has not been recognized for a long time. Today it presents a practical issue. Thus, N. D. Kondratiev saw the logic of development in the large cycles associated with scientific and technological progress, he associated all cyclic development with them. At the same time, he warned against bold plans and projects, and called for being realistic.
The revival of the theory of long waves is associated with the name of the Austrian economist J. Schumpeter and his work "Economic Cycles" (1939), where this theory was further developed to the fullest extent. The work of J. Schumpeter fell on a period of changes in the mechanism of the functioning of a market economy. Subsequently, with the exit from the crisis situation, the acceleration of economic growth, interest in the problem of long-term fluctuations almost completely disappeared. But at the turn of the 1960s and 1970s, a return to this problem was again observed, which is associated with the entry of the market economy into the phase of restructuring its basic principles of functioning. The search for ways to improve production efficiency in connection with the exhaustion of the possibilities of the former mechanism of self-expansion of capital, which manifested itself in the crisis of the Keynesian recipes for regulating economic life, made many economists think about the question: is not the disorder of the world economy in the 70-80s (expressed in the frequency of crises, mass unemployment and acceleration of inflationary processes) as a manifestation of long-term periodic fluctuations inherent in the economic system, and what is the mechanism of these fluctuations. The idea of long waves in the economy, supported by additional research and new statistical information, received its second birth. A special role in this was played by the book of the German scientist G. Mensch, Technological Stalemate: Innovation Overcomes Depressions (1975).
With all the variety of points of view on the specific mechanism of long waves, all the works of modern Western economists go in the direction proposed by J. Schumpeter, which explains the emergence of long-term trends by the unevenness of scientific and technological progress. J. Schumpeter saw the main reason for long-term fluctuations in the economy in the fact that the introduction of basic innovations (such innovations that significantly change both the set of products offered to the buyer and the technology for their manufacture) does not occur continuously, but periodically. At the moment when the previously existing set of products has completely filled the market, when further expansion of production can only take place at the expense of obsolete goods, and the old technology does not make it possible to produce any product that is fundamentally different from the already produced product (i.e., by partial modernization and improvement), it is impossible to significantly expand the market, let alone create a new one.
This situation of maximum saturation of the market periodically resumes. The application of new basic innovations causes a rapid growth in production in advanced industries, which stimulates the growth and restructuring of the entire economy. But as the market fills up more and more, a crisis situation is growing in the economy, requiring the creation of new promising markets that give room for the self-growth of capital. Each such new expansion of the economy, each new wave changes the very mechanism of the functioning of the market economy.
J. Schumpeter not only developed the theory of innovations, but tried to combine the periodization of long waves with the characteristic periods of the scientific and technological revolution. So, the wave of 1787-1842. he connected with the industrial revolution: the introduction of steam engines into production and the creation of the textile and metallurgical industries. During the next wave of 1842-1897. there was an accelerated development in the field of transport (railways and steam shipping). The third wave, which began in 1897 and ended in the late 30s and 40s of the 20th century, he connected with the development of the automotive industry, the chemical industry and the widespread introduction of electricity.
The theory of long waves is characterized by two most important features: a four-phase (as in a small cycle) oscillatory process of a long wave with a period of about half a century and a great impact of scientific and technological progress (STP) on economic development, indicating the unity and interaction of economic development and long waves.
Five technological modes of production are taken as the material basis of large cycles: (peak or crisis in the middle - 1770-1840 = 1810)
early mechanization 1770-1840 Key indicators are cotton, cast iron, textile engineering. The leaders were Great Britain, France, Belgium;
steam power and railroads 1840-1890 Key indicators are steam locomotives, steam ships, machine tools, railway equipment, world shipping. Leaders - Great Britain, France, Belgium, Germany, USA;
electricity and heavy engineering 1890-1940 gg. Key indicators are steel, automobiles, aircraft, radio, aluminum, oil, durable goods. Leaders - Germany, USA, Great Britain, France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands;
Fordist mass production 1940-1990 Key indicators are energy, computers, radars, machine tools, nuclear weapons and energy, missiles, microelectronic software. Leaders - USA, Germany, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, USSR;
information and communications since 1990 Key indicators - microelectronics, biotechnological production, space activities, fine chemistry. Leaders - Japan, USA, Germany, Sweden, Russia.
In recent years, interest in the theory of long waves has sharply increased among domestic researchers. Publications of such scientists as S. Menshikov, S. Nikitin, S. Aukutsionek, Yu. Shishkov, Yu. Yakovets, A. Poletaev, R. Entov, Yu. in the development of the world economy are explored and developed further.
However, the problem of long waves remains quite debatable: different views are expressed on the nature of long waves and the mechanism of their occurrence. What is indisputable is the recognition of their existence and the use of the concept of Long Waves to characterize economic processes that cannot be explained in theories of small cycles (for example, the causes of a serious slowdown in economic growth in the 1970s-1980s).
Long-term trends in economic development are associated with the obsolescence of the material and technical basis of production, with the exhaustion of resources for long-term development and economic growth. A qualitative change in the productive forces, capable of ensuring a new long-term upsurge, also changes the economic mechanism, bringing it into line with the level of development of the productive forces.
The mechanism of long-term fluctuations is associated with the movement of the rate of profit. Sufficient profitability of private enterprise is the economic basis for the introduction of the results of technological progress. Therefore, long waves are not just an alternation of high and low growth rates, but a kind of long-term economic development based on the law of profit. The rate of profit is, on the one hand, an indicator of production efficiency, on the other hand, it is an incentive and regulator of the reproduction process. The decline in profits reflects a drop in the efficiency of the economy, an increase in the overaccumulation of capital. To solve these problems, a restructuring of the economy and a modification of the economic mechanism are needed. Therefore, extraordinary measures are being taken: the innovative activity of entrepreneurs is sharply increasing, traditional branches of production are being liquidated or transferred to a fundamentally new technical level, the forms and methods of organizing labor and the use of labor are changing.
The process of long-term cyclic fluctuations of the market economy is confirmed by practice. If we take the deepest economic crises as the turning points of a long period, we can distinguish the following long-term waves.
Wave 1825-1873- a period of free competition. A technical basis adequate to capitalism is being created, an industrial revolution is taking place in the most developed countries of continental Europe. The further development of capitalism is complicated by strong feudal survivals on the periphery of the capitalist world. When the fall in the rate of profit reaches alarming limits and cannot be compensated by the expansion of the scale of production, there is a need for structural restructuring of the economy. This is achieved through the formation of monopolies in the main sectors of the economy and the receipt of additional profit.
Wave 1873-1929 - the period of formation and flourishing of diversified monopoly structures. Free competition is transformed into regulated, monopolistic competition. On the basis of the development of the productive forces, the possibility of accelerating the accumulation of capital arose, albeit held back, as usual, by cyclical crises. Although capitalism covers the whole world, such a factor of development as territorial expansion is exhausted. With the growth in the number of monopolistic industries, fluctuations in the industry's rate of return make the diversified structure unstable, and in the event of a long-term decline in the rate of profit, an obstacle to the self-expansion of capital. As a result, the further growth of a diversified monopolistic structure becomes impossible either in sectoral or territorial terms. The accumulation of capital and the technical re-equipment of production have exhausted themselves.
Wave 1929-1975 The reaction to the drop in the efficiency of a single-industry monopolistic structure is the growth of state intervention in the economy, which creates favorable conditions for changing the functional structure of capital, the transition to a diversified structure of enterprises. With the participation of the state in the 1950s and 1960s, the production base was significantly updated, dynamic industries were especially developed, a diverse and all-encompassing infrastructure of the economy was created, the non-production sphere was widely developed, and science began to turn into a direct productive force. These changes ensured an unprecedented accumulation of capital. At the same time, the trend towards overaccumulation of capital is increasing. In the context of a long-term decline in the rate of profit, factors that counteract the fall in the rate of profit are intensively used, primarily pricing levers. As a result, state regulation contributed to the separation of the process of capital accumulation from objective market regulators, led to an implicit increase in capital overaccumulation, and accelerated inflationary processes. Stimulation by the state of a diversified structure of enterprises created obstacles in the formation of macroeconomic proportions, and the limitation of state regulation by national frameworks came into conflict with the need for the self-growth of inherently international capital. The deterioration of the conditions for reproduction in the 1970s and 1980s was reflected in a decrease in the rate of economic growth, in the efficiency and profitability of production, and in the growth of inflationary tendencies, which intensified the competition between individual groups of financial capital. It was not possible to avoid a new long crisis.
Since the economic crisis 1974-1975 we can single out the next wave of long-term development. Entering the upward phase in this wave is associated with the strengthening of the economic potential of developed countries on the basis of deep structural changes (reindustrialization), the rationalization of production based on the introduction of new equipment and technology, and the strengthening of its competitiveness. In the economic mechanism, priority is given to competition, the market, and private monopoly regulation. State intervention in economic processes is decreasing, while its role in providing strategic conditions for the development and growth of the competitiveness of developed countries is being strengthened.
So, a market economy is characterized by both small and large cycles of economic development.
Small and large cycles of economic development do not oppose each other, but interact, complementing each other. This is expressed as follows:
Both small and large cycles are a form of economic movement, development. In any cycle, each subsequent phase is a consequence of the cumulative accumulation of conditions during the previous phase. Each new cycle naturally follows another, just as one phase of the same cycle is replaced by another. The cycle combines the limits and reserves of development, cyclical crises are not only a violation of the balance, but also the initial moment of restoring the balance. The negative consequences of crises necessitate social protection of the population. This function is performed by the state. At the same time, being the impetus for a new round of development, the crisis is accompanied by the stimulation of economic development by the state. As a result, in a market economy, economic cycles as a form of movement combine spontaneous and organized beginnings;
The basis of the mechanism of short-term and long-term periodic oscillations is scientific and technological progress. In small cycles, the crisis is an impetus for modernization and technical improvement of production, and, consequently, to market expansion. In large cycles, crisis processes require the introduction of basic innovations. This stimulates not only the growth of production, but also the restructuring of the entire economy and the mechanism of its functioning. Consequently, large cycles are characterized not only by the expansion of the market, but also by the creation of new,
Both small and large cycles in the economies of developed countries move relatively synchronously, forming world cycles;
Small cycles are an organic part of large ones. If they arose in the downward phase of large cycles, then they are characterized by the depth of the crisis, the duration of the depression, the weakness and brevity of the rise. The upward phase of large cycles is characterized by small cycles with strong ups and weak depressions.
In this way, with growth The economy is rather connected with small cycles, since the growth of the economy is, first of all, a steadily expanding sales of products. It is characterized by quantitative changes in macroeconomic indicators, a deeper change in the accumulation of capital, accompanied by an increase in the material wealth of society. State development means that impulses are generated within the economy for a fundamental change in its technological structure. Business entities are ready to form plans for the accumulation of real capital. A large number of innovations appear on the market: goods, services, technologies, resources or new markets. Their appearance is due to the fact that entrepreneurial activity is aimed at finding new development guidelines, since the previous goals have already been achieved. Innovation becomes a market benchmark for a mass of entrepreneurs. Determining the direction of development, they create a more or less capacious market, first for the factors of production (innovations in labor and capital), and then for the entire output. And the more effective new technologies, how more widely they are distributed in production than more capacious the market for final products and the stronger the impetus given by innovation to the entire economy, the more successful the accumulation of real capital, the greater the growth in its efficiency or productivity. This is the result of the stage development, ensuring growth and prosperity for decades to come. Such changes in the state of the economic system over time are associated with large economic cycles (long waves), which contain the logic of the system's development.
CM. Menshikov L.A. Klymenko
LONG WAVES IN THE ECONOMY
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSHIPS
S.M.Menshikov L.A.Klimenko
LONG WAVES IN THE ECONOMY
when society changes skin
MOSCOW
"INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS" 1989
BBK 65.5 M51
М 0604000000 - QS2 KB _4 4 -1-1988 BBK 65^
003(01) -89
ISBN 5-7133-0165-6 ©"International Relations", 1989
FOREWORD
Until recently, long waves in the economy were a taboo topic in our country, and this book under the then conditions would not have been able to see the light of day. The fact is that the founder of the theory of long waves (he called them great cycles of conjuncture) was Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev, a world-famous Soviet scientist who was not recognized in his homeland and was considered a bourgeois pervert. In the end, he was accused of being the head of a "working peasant party" that never existed, which set itself the goal of restoring capitalism. Kondratiev was hidden in the Suzdal political isolation ward for several years, and then completely shot for "increasing anti-Soviet activities" in prison. The only "activity" that Kondratiev was engaged in in the detention center was working on manuscripts on the patterns of economic growth and writing letters to his wife. The manuscripts have survived only partially, and the letters are still waiting for publication.
The authors of this book began to deal with long waves much earlier than Kondratiev was officially rehabilitated. At first, they were engaged not specifically, but in connection with the study of cyclic processes in general. In the 60s and partly in the 70s, this work was carried out at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the USSR Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), where the situation for the evil was not always favorable. The then director of IMEMO, Academician N. N. Inozemtsev (unlike his predecessors E. S. Varga and A. A. Areumanyan) considered the studies of the cycle uninteresting; perhaps because he was not an economist and was elected to the Academy in a different specialty.
All sorts of obstacles stood in the way of the explorers. Even a dissertation based on the analysis of long, sometimes more than a hundred years, statistical series (L. A. Klimenko presented it in the early 70s) aroused suspicions of “sympathy for Kondratiev.” In the mid-70s, skinny
IMEMO leaders removed from the second edition of the two-volume "Political Economy of Modern Monopoly Capitalism" those parts of the chapter by S. M. Menshikov, which spoke of the emergence of an additional short-term cycle in the production of durable goods. In other words, through the fault of those to economic science, loyalty to one and only officially recognized medium-term cycle was sacredly guarded and protected. x 1 .
This practice continued in the 1980s both at the institutes of the Academy of Sciences and at publishing houses. Thus, mention of Kondratiev was removed from the works written by S. Menshikov and already prepared for publication, and from the IMEMO collective monograph, even his entire chapter, where, apart from other problems, long waves were discussed 2 .
It is difficult to understand who needed it and why. But it was primarily economics that suffered from this.
And yet, in such difficult conditions, a breakthrough was made. This was done at the beginning of 1984, when an article by S. Menshikov appeared in the Kommunist magazine, which rehabilitated N. Kondratiev scientifically three years before he was officially rehabilitated legally and politically. Therefore, when L. Piyasheva in her articles on Kondratiev stubbornly reproaches S. Menshikov for noticing the Kondratiev waves 3 too late, she can be answered with the words of J. Gus: "Holy simplicity!" By the way, Piyasheva immediately calls for burning all the books in which Kondratiev was once defamated. Out of the frying pan into the fire! Where did the young Soviet scientist - like the legendary old woman, who threw brushwood on the fire in which J. Gus burned - such a passion for burning knots and for the fire of another inquisition?
The article in "Kommunist" appeared already when the authors of this book managed to advance in their own analysis of long waves. At the beginning of 1982, we found the form of a simple theoretical model of large cycles, which could be tested on statistical material. statistics showed clearly defined long-term waves, and the econometric model built on these data generated fluctuations close to the Kondratieff 50-year cycle.
lam. These results were presented at an international symposium in Italy and published both abroad and in the USSR. In subsequent years, we continued theoretical and econometric research, the results of which are described in more detail in the book.
In 1985-1989, we had discussions with Marxists in other countries: the GDR, France, the FRG, the USA, and Belgium. They identified some discrepancies, which are detailed in the book. But they also clearly showed why the topic of long waves in our time is no less, but rather more important and relevant than in the 20s.
1. We are talking about the scientific explanation of the vitality, that is, the adaptability of capitalism. Is capitalism capable of a new long-term upswing? And if so, will it be the result of maneuvers, various external and random factors, or is the mechanism of such restoration internal and spontaneous for the calitalistic system? We answer this question in the second sense and believe that such a conclusion serves as an important underpinning of new thinking in matters of international politics and strategy of the international labor movement. Too often in the past we have suffered from an underestimation of the vitality of calitalism. In order not to repeat this mistake, it is necessary to look realistically at the world around us.
The history of the 20th century has shown that the monopoly
talism goes through several phases in its development, until
go - capitalism of free competition. In the 20s and 30s he
developed into state-monopoly capitalism, and in
In the 1970s and 1980s, it acquired its transnational form. How
caused these transformations? Is it natural that they
go about once every half a century? In the book we show
We conclude that such phase transitions are associated with periodic
technical revolutions and structural crises in the eco
nomics. The discovery of such a pattern is extremely important,
for it makes it possible to foresee not only streaks of success
and rises of capitalism, but also periods of sharp strengthening of its
difficulties, the growth of its contradictions.
In the 80s, socialism is also going through serious work
ness. The restructuring taking place in a number of socialist countries on
corrected to replace the old, command-administrative system
we are new, more democratic, less centralized,
more humane form. Therefore, "change of skin", a characteristic
for capitalism, is natural for socialism. Turns out
also that this change is not at all smooth, but is accompanied
painful crisis processes. The question arises:
Does socialism have long waves, structural crises? The question is not easy; it cannot be dismissed. We give the answer in the book in the corresponding chapter - after the reader gets acquainted with the main elements of the long wave mechanism.
The book outlines our own theory of long waves. To a large extent, it is based on the legacy of K. Marx, as well as the works of N. Kondratiev. But in many ways, we are moving forward, rejecting misconceptions or outdated ideas. We examine in detail the Marxist concepts of other authors, showing that there is not and cannot be a single Marxist point of view. A special chapter is devoted to non-Marxist concepts. We don't try to reject them out of hand. In the end, we come to the conclusion that it is possible and necessary to build an integrated theory of long waves in the future with the involvement of many ideas expressed by scientists from different directions.
We would like to express our deep gratitude to B. N. Kondratieva for the materials provided to us about the life and work of her father, to B. P. Likhachev, the editor of the above-mentioned article in Kommunist, to the foreign scientists T. Kuchinsky, P. Boccara, L. Fontvieu, X. Jung, J. Goldberg, A. Klein-knecht, W. Weidlich, E. Mandel, D. Gordon and others, discussions with whom greatly helped us in developing our concept. We also express our gratitude to the staff of the journal "Problems of Peace and Socialism" , creative communication with which contributed to the creation of the book; to the staff of the Institute of Social Sciences under the Central Committee of the CPSU, where the ideas of long waves were discussed together more than once; to the staff of the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of Czechoslovakia, who assisted in the development of part of the book.
S. MENSHIKOV, L. KLIMENKO Prague, April 1989
CHAPTER I THE ORIGIN OF THE THEORY OF LONG WAVES
§ 1. N. D. KONDRAT'EV AND HIS PRECURSORS From Clark to Parvus
The history of the analysis of long waves in economics opens, admittedly, from the middle of the last century. At first it was just guesswork. In 1847, the English scientist X. Clark noticed that 54 years had passed between the two world "economic catastrophes" that erupted in 1793 and 1847. He was the first to suggest that this interval was not accidental and that there must be some "physical" reasons causing such "catastrophes".
Another English scientist, W. Jevons, who went down in history as the creator of the theory according to which crises of overproduction are explained by the appearance of spots on the Sun at certain intervals, tried to prove for the first time on statistical material the existence of long-term fluctuations in the economy. He analyzed the series of prices and noticed in them repeated long periods of rise and fall. Jevons could not find any satisfactory explanation for this phenomenon and in 1865 wrote: "I do not know of any reason that could be considered common to all cases" 1 .
The theory of cyclic crises, developed by K. Marx in the 60s of the XIX century, subsequently gave impetus to the study of the phenomenon of long-term fluctuations by scientists of the Marxist direction. It was they who contributed largest contribution in the study of long waves at the initial stage of development of this concept.
Below we will show that already in Marx one can find important elements of the theory of long-term fluctuations, including the relationship between technical progress and profit. AT late XIX century the existence of long-term fluctuations was mentioned by the Russian Marxist M. Tugan-Baranovsky, although he did not give this phenomenon any significant place in his analysis.
Another Russian Marxist A.I. Gelfand, who spent a significant part of his life in Germany and spoke under the pseudonym Parvus, in 1901 for the first time formulated^that long periods of economic expansion, recession and stagnation are immanent in the capitalist mode of production 3 .
He noted that cyclical crises that occur during periods of upswing are less pronounced and, on the contrary, during periods of recession they are deeper and longer. Parvus cites the opening of new markets, the introduction of electricity and the growth of gold mining as the reasons that caused the general economic recovery at the beginning of the 20th century. Thus, without going into the depths of analysis, Parvus formulated provisions that would give impetus to the development in the future of several areas in the study of "long waves". These are the problems of endogenous and exogenous mechanisms for the occurrence of fluctuations 4 , and the beginning of all innovative, as well as monetarist theories.
Dutch Marxists
After Parvus, historically, the most significant are the works of the Dutch Marxist economists J. Van Gelderen 5 and S. De Wolf 6 . Van Gelderen (1913), relying on quite a variety of statistics, including, along with long price series and shorter production series, financial indicators, data on international trade, migration, employment, developed a theory of undulating evolutionary movement under capitalism.
In his opinion, the exogenous impetus caused by the opening of new markets or the introduction of new technologies in the capitalist economy sets in motion, through the mechanism of the multiplier and intersectoral relations, the forces of accelerating the growth of social demand and supply 7 . However, over time, the market fills up. finished products. At the same time, production, having come across the boundaries of the currently widespread technology, is experiencing a shortage of raw materials. Prices for it, and hence the costs of production, are growing, but due to the overstocking of the market with finished products, there is no way to increase its prices, so profits and wages fall, demand decreases, and with it production.
Van Gelderen does not find endogenous causes that can explain the new turn of the conjuncture - from a long decline to an upsurge. The search for such a mechanism has been the most difficult point for most Marxist research to date. Later we will present our
own concept of the endogenous turn of the capitalist economy from the bottom of the wave to a new rise.
Approximately at the same time when Van Gelderen's book was published, other works appear in which the phenomenon of long-term oscillations is mentioned, but not analyzed in detail, - A. Aftalion (1913) 8 , M. Lenoir (1913) 9 , J Lescura (1912, 1914) 10 .
Van Gelderen's work was continued in the 1920s by his friend De Wolf. He based his theory of long waves on Marx's idea that the emergence of crises under capitalism is connected with the process of overaccumulation of fixed capital. The production of "surplus capital" echoes throughout the economy, giving rise to its wave-like movement. According to Marx, the material basis for the periodicity of the cyclical movement of the economy is the average life of fixed capital in the form of equipment, which was 10-13 years in the middle of the 19th century. De Wolf is looking for a material basis long fluctuations of the capitalist economy in the average life of fixed capital invested in transport infrastructure - roads, shipyards.Based on the depreciation rate of these structures, which at that time was 2.6%, he calculated the cycle of turnover of capital invested in them, which turned out to be approximately 40 years.
De Wolf went on to suggest that there is a fixed relationship between cyclical crises and long waves: five cyclical crises fit into one long wave. Being endogenous in nature, long waves are supported, however, according to De Wolf (as well as Van Gelderen), by external shocks.
The theory that considers overaccumulation in the capital sector of the economy as one of the factors of long-term fluctuations is also being developed in modern concepts and models.
N. Kondratiev and the discussion of the 20s
Almost simultaneously and completely independently of De Wolf in Russia, the Soviet economist N. D. Kondratiev was dealing with the problem of long waves.
N. D. Kondratiev, whose name is fixed in the history of the world economics in the expressions "long Kondratiev waves", or "Kondratiev cycles", he lived only 46 years. He was born in 1892 into a peasant family. After graduating from the law faculty of St. Petersburg University, from 1915 he studied economic problems Agriculture.
In 1917, after the February Revolution, he participated in the preparation of the agrarian reform and for a short time was a comrade (i.e., deputy) of the Minister of Food in the government of A.F. Kerensky. After the revolution, he worked for several years at the Agricultural Academy in Moscow. In 1920, he was instructed to create and head the Market Institute, of which he was director until 1928.
N. D. Kondratiev participated in the work on the preparation of the first 5-year plan. He believed that plans should be predominantly qualitative rather than quantitative, based on rigorous scientific research and proportionality. He was strongly opposed to forced industrialization through the transfer of funds from agriculture. Like A. V. Chayanov, he believed in the possibility of broad agricultural cooperation without destroying independent family farms.
In 1930, N. D. Kondratiev was arrested and sentenced to a long term on false charges of creating and leading an imaginary “working peasant party”, which allegedly fought against collectivization in the USSR.
In 1938 he died in prison. Currently fully rehabilitated 11 .
In the early 1920s, N. D. Kondratiev launched a broad discussion on the issue of long-term fluctuations under capitalism. At that time, there were still very strong hopes for an early revolution in the advanced capitalist countries, and therefore the question of the future of capitalism, of the possibility of its new rise, of reaching a new, higher stage of development, was extremely topical.
The discussion began with a work published in 1922 in which Kondratiev suggested the existence of long waves in the development of capitalism. This presentation evoked a negative reaction from the majority of Soviet scientists, but N. D. Kondratiev came up with several more papers that appeared in 1923, 1925, 1926 and 1928, in which he consistently and reasonably defended his position 12 .
Kondratiev's research and conclusions were based on an empirical analysis of a large number of economic indicators different countries over rather long periods, covering I0Q-150 years. These are price indices, government debt securities, nominal wages, foreign trade turnover indicators, coal mining, gold mining, pig iron production, lead production, etc. 10
Using the least squares method, the (mostly quadratic) trends were extracted from the series, and then the resulting residuals were averaged using a 9-year moving average. Averaging made it possible to smooth out fluctuations that occur more often than once every nine years. The cycle length was estimated as the distance between adjacent peaks or recessions.
Of course, this technique is not without its shortcomings, and the criticism of it by Kondratiev's then-opponent D.I. Oparin is not unfounded 13 . Indeed, the choice of a trend (i.e., a smooth curve that best approximates the original series) is subjective, mechanistic, and detached from content. The 9-year moving average eliminates short-term fluctuations, but can distort the remaining ones. In addition, the transformed series may, as a rule, contain several wave movements with a period of more than nine years, which are visually very difficult to separate from each other.
But all these remarks can be answered with a reasonable answer. First, although it is theoretically true that the dynamics of the residual depends on the type of trend, however, when extracting a second-order polynomial from the original rnd, only one “false wave” can be introduced. Therefore, the appearance of two waves cannot be considered the result of subjective fitting.
Further, moving averages can change the structure of the original series, but if it contains pronounced and close to periodic fluctuations, then the smoothing procedure cannot distort them beyond recognition. It should be noted that in almost all series considered by Kondratiev one can visually distinguish the presence of successive waves with a period close to 40-60 years. Therefore, the objections raised by Oparin and other researchers in the future may not concern the very existence of undulating motion, but only its exact periodization, that is, the location in time of turning points, which sometimes can turn out to be really sensitive to averaging operations 14 .
It should be noted, what Kondratiev already then, in the 1920s, understood the need for a probabilistic approach in the study of statistical series of economic indicators. In his article "Large cycles of conjuncture" 15 he wrote that the existence of such cycles cannot be considered proven, but there is a high probability of their existence.
Indeed, none of the available methods of mathematical statistics can confirm with a sufficient degree of probability the presence of 50-year cycles in the interval of 100 - 150 years, that is, on the basis of information containing a maximum of 2-3 fluctuations.
11
However, responding to Oparin's criticism that one cannot speak of "correctness", that is, of the periodicity of large cycles, since their duration varies from 45 to 60 years, Kondratiev reasonably objects that from a probabilistic point of view, large cycles are no less "correct" than traditional cyclical crises. Indeed, the relative deviation from the average of a normal cycle, whose length varies from 7 to 11 years, is more than 40%, and such a deviation from the average wave, whose duration varies from 45 to 60 years, is less than 30%.
Precisely because the time series analysis apparatus used by Kondratiev (and indeed any other more advanced one) cannot confirm or disprove the existence of long cycles with sufficient probability, Kondratiev was looking for additional information, trying to find properties and phenomena common to the corresponding phases of the long cycles he discovered.
By the beginning of the 1920s, world capitalism had experienced, according to Kondratiev's calculations, two and a half long waves (see Table 1).
Table 1
Periodization of large cycles according to N. Kondratiev
Climbing recessions
1789-1814 1814-1849
1849-1873 1873-1896
Throughout the entire period under study, Kondratiev identifies “four empirical correctnesses.” Two of them relate to the upward phases, one is characteristic of the recession stage, and another regularity manifests itself in each of the phases of the long cycle.
1) At the origins of the upward phase, or at its very beginning, a profound change takes place in the whole life of capitalist society. These changes are preceded by significant scientific and technical inventions and innovations. In the upward phase of the first wave, that is, at the end of the 18th century, these were: the development of the textile industry and the production of iron, which changed the economic and social conditions society. Growth in the second wave, that is, in the middle of the 19th century, Kondratiev st.
calling with construction railways, which made it possible to develop new territories and transform agriculture. The upward trend of the third wave at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century, in his opinion, was caused by the widespread introduction of electricity, radio, telephone. Prospects for a new rise Kondratiev saw in the automotive industry. Transformations inside selected countries accompanied by a change in relations in the world capitalist economy, the creation of its new centers.
Upward phases are richer in social
upheavals (revolutions, wars) than downward ones.
The downward phases are especially depressing.
impact on agriculture. Low prices for goods during the period
recessions contribute to the growth of the relative price of gold,
which induces to increase its production. Accumulation of gold
contributes to the exit of the economy from a protracted crisis.
Periodic crises (7-10-year cycle) as it were
strung on the corresponding phases of the long wave and from
change their dynamics depending on it - during periods
long rise more time falls on the "bloom
crisis," and during periods of prolonged recession, crisis
years.
He argues that none of the given correctness "arise by chance. The change in technology is caused by the demands of production, the creation of such conditions under which the use of inventions becomes possible and necessary. Wars and revolutions "do not fall from the sky", but are a consequence of the created economic, social and political situation. The need for the development of new territories and the migration of the population is also the result of such circumstances.
Thus, all the observed phenomena do not play the role of random shocks that give rise to the next cycle, but rather are themselves parts of the mechanism inherent in capitalism that ensures its undulating movement.
Kondratiev expressed this position very clearly in one of his works, 16 where he wrote that each successive phase of a long cycle is the result of cumulative processes accumulated during the previous phase, and that, as long as
the foundations of capitalism are being destroyed, each new cycle is repeated with the same regularity with which its various phases follow each other.
It was this thesis that caused especially fierce controversy. L. D. Trotsky, one of the first to join the discussion back in 1923, wrote 17 that the deviations from secular development noticed by Kondratiev are simply an evolution) of a trend under the influence of purely random external processes. Thus, the waves of technical progress under capitalism must be regarded not as cycles, but as phases of the contradictory historical development of the productive forces, which are affected by various kinds of random shocks and other external factors.
All opponents of the idea of long waves even today build their objections from positions similar to those formulated above 18 .
Endogenous mechanism according to Kondratiev
Kondratiev is looking for the roots of long cycles in processes similar to those that, according to Marxist theory, give rise to periodic fluctuations in the capitalist economy, repeating every 7-11 years. In Western literature, they are sometimes called Jouglar cycles - after the name of the French scientist of the second half of XIX century, who first wrote a special monograph about them.
In his work “Long Waves of the Conjuncture”, Kondratiev writes that undulating movements are a process of deviations from the equilibrium states to which the capitalist economy aspires. years and thereafter. Meanwhile, it is known that in Volume II of Capital, Marx devotes a whole section to revealing the conditions for the equilibrium of simple and expanded reproduction under capitalism. But this is such an equilibrium from which in real life the capitalist economy systematically deviates and which periodically forcibly imposes itself on it in the form of a crisis.
Kondratiev, on the other hand, raises the question of the existence of several equilibrium states, and hence the possibility of several oscillatory motions. He proposes to speak not only about crises, but to investigate the totality of wave-like movements under capitalism, that is, to develop a general theory of fluctuations. According to him, there are three types of equilibria:
"First order" equilibrium - between ordinary
overnight supply and demand. Deviations from it
give short-term fluctuations lasting 3-3.5 years, then
There are cycles in inventory.
"Second order" equilibrium achieved in the process
formation of production prices through intersectoral transfer
leve of capital invested mainly in equipment
ing. Deviations from this equilibrium and its restoration
nie Kondratiev associates with cycles of average duration
ness.
"Third order" equilibrium concerns the "basic
nutritional benefits. "In this category, Kondratiev includes about
industrial buildings, infrastructure facilities, as well as
skilled workforce serving this
technical way of production. Reserve "fixed capital
good" must be in balance with all the factors
determining the existing technical method of production
management, with the prevailing industry structure production,
existing resource base and energy sources, prices,
employment and public institutions, state of credit
but-monetary system, etc.
In foreign literature, there is an opinion that in terms of the forms of development of scientific and technological progress, Kondratiev's concept comes close to the innovative theory of long waves developed by J. Schumpeter and currently continued by his followers - G. Mensch, A. Kleischsnecht and etc. 19 The main claim of some Western authors to Kondratiev is that he did not give due credit to the innovative theory of long waves and did not develop it. They argue that it was only because of fear of criticism from the Soviet economics of the time and the need to adjust to the political environment that he deviated from the in-depth development of an innovative approach and instead introduced Marxist concepts of the return of fixed capital and the role of loan interest into his explanation of the long cycle.
15
First of all, it seems incorrect to criticize a scientist for something that he could not or did not have time to do, and obviously through no fault of his own. Recall that Kondratiev was forcibly cut off from scientific activity at the age of less than 40.
But that's not the point. It seems that Kondratiev did not follow the path blazed by Schumpeter, primarily due to his own scientific convictions. Unlike Schumpeter, he was looking for an explanation for long waves not in the readiness of entrepreneurs to innovate and not in transient bursts of entrepreneurial activity, but, above all, in the very foundations of the reproduction process.
According to Marx's theory, the material basis for the periodicity of crises is the average life of equipment. Kondratiev was looking for the basis for the correctness of long-term fluctuations in similar material factors. So did the Marxist De Wolf, who turned to fixed capital, materialized in transport infrastructure. However, unlike De Bolff, Kondratiev expanded the material basis of long waves, including in it - through the need to maintain a third-order equilibrium - the entire amount of capital and labor resources, providing on a long-term basis this technical method of production. Thus, he directly approached the concept life cycle technical mode of production, although he did not use this more modern term for us.
Of course, with such a complex definition of a long cycle, it is more difficult to calculate its average duration. Recall that De Wolf, based on the depreciation rates of the infrastructure facilities that existed at that time, calculated the average life span of 40 years.
But it is known that the value of the depreciation coefficient is formed not only and not so much depending on the possible average physical term service life of equipment, which, as a rule, is much longer than its average life, as much as from the whole complex of production and economic relations.
Therefore, it is natural to expect that depreciation rates for infrastructure structures are also a reflection of the complex of existing relationships in the economy and society, but using them to estimate the average life of the mode of production, of which they represent an important element, does not seem so meaningless.
But let us continue Kondratieff's explanation of the mechanism of long waves. Renovation and expansion of the „main capital
goods" occurring during the upward phase of a long cycle, he wrote, radically change and redistribute the main productive forces of society. This requires huge resources in kind and in cash. They can exist only if they were accumulated in the previous phase, when more was saved than invested.
In the upswing phase, the constant rise in prices and wages gave rise to a tendency among the population to spend more. In a recession, on the contrary, wages and prices fall. The first leads to a decrease in purchasing power, the second - to the desire to save. Due to the general decline in the standard of living, capital is concentrated in the hands of those who have fixed income and benefit from lower prices.
There is also an accumulation of funds due to falling investments during a period of general recession, when profits are low and fear of bankruptcy is high. Note that similar phenomena are observed in the capitalist economy in our time, that is, in the 80s of the XX century, when intensive growth is taking place everywhere in the developed capitalist countries. fictitious capital, unprecedented speculation on the stock exchange. At the same time, there is an obvious outflow of capital from the manufacturing sector.
The decline in commodity prices, according to Kondratiev, leads to an increase in the relative value of gold. There is a desire to increase its production. The appearance of an additional monetary metal also contributes to the growth of free loan capital, and when, finally, a sufficient amount of it accumulates, the possibility of a new radical restructuring of the economy is born.
Some of Kondratiev's propositions on the role of borrowed capital in the formation of the cycle are consonant with the concepts of Tugan-Baranovsky 2 ".
So, let's single out the main elements of the internal endogenous mechanism of the long cycle according to Kondratiev.
The capitalist economy is a
movement around several levels of equilibrium. Equilibrium
"basic capital goods" (industrial infrastructure
staff plus skilled labor) with all
factors of economic and social life determines
this technical method of production. When this balance
violated, it becomes necessary to create a new
pass of capital goods.
Renewal of the "essential wealth" is taking place
Dit not smoothly, but in jerks. Scientific and technical inventions
and innovation plays a key role in this.
The duration of a long cycle is determined by the environment
the life span of production infrastructure facilities
zhenii, which are one of the main elements of capi
social benefits.
All social processes - wars, revolutions, migra
tions of the population are the result of the transformation of the economic
khanism.
Replacement of "basic capital goods" and exit from
prolonged recession require the accumulation of resources in kind
noah monetary form. When this accumulation reaches
exact value, there is a possibility of radical
investments that bring the economy to a new upsurge.
Big cycles in the West
N. D. Kondratiev died in 1938, and for almost 50 years in the USSR his name was “taboo”, and the theory of long waves was branded as “vulgar bourgeois theory”.
At the same time, the name Kondratiev was often repeated in the West. Interest in long waves, of course, revived depending on the state of the capitalist economy - it was extremely high during the "great depression" of the 30s and immediately after it. A new long crisis in the 70s and 80s caused a large wave of publications in recent 15 years.
Many prominent economists have been developing and creating their own concepts of long Kondratiev cycles for half a century. Why Kondratiev? The answer to this question, in our opinion, is contained in the following considerations:
1) The materials that appeared in the press on long-term oscillations before Kondratiev were isolated. In the 19th century they were only conjectures. This issue began to be considered in more detail before the First World War in the works of Marxist scientists, who were not very popular among bourgeois scientists. After the October Revolution, the attitude towards Marxist science could not but change. Capitalism staggered, previously unpopular ideas began to be taken seriously for the first time. The question of long-term fluctuations under capitalism has become a question of the fate of capitalism.
Therefore, a broad discussion that began in the Soviet country attracted the closest attention abroad. eighteen
Recall that in the 1920s the USSR had quite developed ties with the scientific world of the West. N. D. Kondratiev himself was a member of a number of foreign societies - the London Economic and Statistical, the American Academy of Social Sciences, the American Economic Association, the American Statistical Society, etc. Since that time, Kondratiev's works have regularly appeared in English, German and French. His article "Long waves of conjuncture" in 1926 was translated into German 21 .
Meanwhile, the books of Van Gelderen and De Wolf were nali-san in Dutch, were not translated, and were not widely available to Western readers.
2) Despite the fact that conjectures about the endogenous nature
long-term oscillations are already contained in the works of Parvus and
Van Gelderen, only Kondratiev tried to build a castle
a system that generates these vibrations within itself.
The explanations of Parvus and Van Gelderen necessarily contain
There are factors that play the role of an external impetus in the formation
fluctuations.
Kondratiev reveals internal mechanism both ups and downs. It was this second circumstance that attracted Western economists at a time when the general economic situation, especially in the 1930s, seemed hopeless. In short, the Kondratiev concept gave hope for a spontaneous way out of the big crisis, while Keynesianism focused on the need for external shocks from the economic policy of the state.
3) Even the reproach that some bourgeois researchers
the investigators make N. D. Kondratiev about the fact that he, while building
his theory of long waves, did not dwell on any
one explanation, but brought them a whole complex, represented
This is not evidence of the weakness of his position, but rather of its strength.
Kondratiev created a broad picture of interrelated processes
owls. Every aspect of this picture is, as it were,
its projection onto the area of phenomena under consideration, in which
all other connections are assumed to be unchanged, that is, about
comes as an abstraction from them. This approach gives
possibility, without losing the idea of the general relationship of the phenomenon
which is considered through the entire set of projections
or slices, explore in detail specific cause-and-effect
ties in the economy and society. Just such a
move gave impetus to the creation later in foreign science not
how many directions in the theory of a long cycle (how
mic and sociological).
4) Although Kondratiev generally followed Marx's theory and repeated it in many ways, he omitted one of its most important aspects. This is the question of the organic composition of capital, which is extremely important in the Marxist theory of the cycle. This problem was not touched upon at all in the Soviet discussion of the 1920s. Perhaps the participants did not have the necessary information to investigate this issue, or did not see an explanation for the apparent contradiction between the repeated long fluctuations of the capitalist economy and the law of the falling rate of profit discovered by Marx.
Meanwhile, De Wolff, taking into account Marx's law of the downward trend in the rate of profit, concluded that the period of long-term fluctuations was reduced along with the increase in cyclical crises, which, in his opinion, could lead to the collapse of the entire capitalist system.
De Wolf came to this conclusion because he did not see an endogenous mechanism that supports a long cycle. Like many Marxists of that time, who believed in the imminent death of the capitalist system, he could not resolve the logical conflict between the possibilities of its self-regulation in the long term and the contradictions leading to its disintegration.
The position of Kondratiev was different, depriving him of the fundamentally Marxist concept of sharpness, characteristic of left-radical conclusions. This approach was more acceptable to most Western researchers.
5) The undoubted contribution of N. D. Kondratiev to modern econometric science was the introduction of probabilistic laws into the analysis of economic processes. He was one of the first to propose a probabilistic approach to study relationships in the economy and practically used this approach in his specific analysis of time series.
The research apparatus used by him is based on the methods of mathematical statistics and is close to those that exist today. It is possible that both of these points were the reason for such a wide recognition of Kondratiev's ideas among foreign specialists who understood the need and role of econometric methods and were engaged in their development.
It should be noted here that even now a number of scientists, especially in countries with planned economy, including in the USSR, cannot break away from the mechanistic understanding of economic phenomena, often trying to substantiate them from the standpoint of complete determinism. But it is precisely this philosophy of way-20
favored the predominance of administrative-command methods of managing the economy, the need to get rid of which is clearly understood today.
6) Close to Western economists was the question
sa about the existence of equilibria in the economy. Kondratiev still
before J. M. Keynes postulated the possibility of movement in
circle of multiple equilibria. The thesis about evolution was also new.
rational, i.e. changing, character of equilibrium tracks
thorium. In one of his works, N. D. Kondratiev wrote that
each long cycle takes place in new concrete-historical
conditions, at a new level of development, the manufacturer
nyh forces 23 .
These ideas were developed later in the works of representatives of various non-Marxist schools of cycle theory - Keynesians, Schumpeters and others.
7) Important for Western economists was the adoption
Kondratiev's ideas that in the study of patterns
capitalist economy is wrong to be limited to races
looking only at the crises associated with the cycle of average
duration, but it is necessary to study the features of wave
different movement in general.
This approach deepened their knowledge of the laws of development of the capitalist economy, made it possible to introduce at a certain stage - albeit limited - methods of management and control over it, and created opportunities for more realistic forecasting. Of course, at the same time, the class foundations of contradictions, which are the direct cause of cyclical fluctuations, were diligently obscured.
On the other hand, the long rejection of such an approach by Soviet economists led to dogmatic conclusions and ultimately hindered a deep and comprehensive analysis of the processes of economic development of the capitalist system.
8) Attractive to Western science was also the combination
dancing at Kondratiev economic analysis with sociological
skim. This combination is inherent in the Marxist milieu.
outlook operating in terms of base and superstructure
ki. Non-Marxist scholars have borrowed this combination,
but used it to substantiate their fundamentally
other conclusions.
Researchers of long-term oscillations before Kondratiev paid more attention to the study of exclusively material factors. Kondratiev considered social and political aspects - wars, coups, political and economic
scientific scandals - in close connection and as a result of the processes contained and transformed in the basis.
Interestingly, he first introduced a distinction between "intermediate wars" playing the role of stimulating the economy at the beginning of the boom phase, and "final wars" and upheavals at the end of the boom, playing the role of a gateway and resolving the contradictions accumulated during the boom. The concept of increasing military spending to stimulate the economy in a bad market environment was developed by some representatives of the Keynesian school. Of the contemporary long wave theorists in the West, Mensch also believes that, at the beginning of the upswing, rising military spending can play a stimulating role.
The exact opposite position is stated in the work of the American scientist J. Goldstein, who writes that periodic wars bled world economy over the past centuries, causing its long declines. At the same time, long rises led to the accumulation of excess resources needed to start a new round of wars. Goldstein rejects "the American myth that wars and preparations for them are good for the economy."
The decay of the economy in the initial period of a long recession, according to Kondratiev, also manifests itself in bureaucratization administrative system, corruption, political and economic scandals. Kondratiev gave examples from the history of England and America relating to 1873 and 1923.
In our time, political scandals like the Watergate case and Irangate in the USA, Flick and Barshel in Germany can be analogues.
Non-Marxist theorists of long waves often consciously used only one side of the dialectical unity of basic and superstructural processes and, rejecting the principles of the materialistic approach, absolutized the role of sociological, ecological, and institutional factors. From this arose theories of long waves, in which the cause of their occurrence is seen in such social phenomena as the actions of the working class, the change of parties, wars, environmental pollution, shifts in public opinion, changes in art trends, etc.
Some of these concepts are covered in subsequent chapters of the book.
