The Eurasian Economic Union is creating a single market for hydrocarbons. And although the short-term interests of the participants - Russia and Kazakhstan on the one hand, and Belarus on the other - are directly opposite, in long term Everyone wins, and quite significantly. In this sense, Kazakhstan and its cooperation with China will especially help Russia. The leaders of the EAEU countries reached an agreement in principle and approved the concept common market hydrocarbons from 2025. The development of the concept was very difficult. At the last meeting on intergovernmental agreements in Yerevan, there were serious disagreements, but they were resolved, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov said.
The disagreements concerned mainly the concept of the formation of the oil market, while everything suited the parties on the gas market.
But on the definition of oil prices, each member had his own vision. Thus, Belarus proposed to set the price of oil for deliveries between the EAEU member countries not higher than the cost of the price calculated on the basis of quotations from international price agencies “minus” the cost of oil supplies outside the EAEU and export duties. The Russian Ministry of Energy objected, as this would mean price regulation. Then the EAEU treaty stipulates that hydrocarbon prices should be based on market principles. Kazakhstan also believes that oil prices should be based on market mechanisms and fair competition. The contradictions are understandable - Russia and Kazakhstan sell oil, while Belarus buys it.
At the next meeting in 2017, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) will submit programs for the formation of common markets for oil, oil products and gas for approval by the heads of the EAEU countries, said Tigran Sargsyan, Chairman of the EEC Board.
According to him, all three approved concepts - for oil, oil products and gas - are built according to the same scheme. “In accordance with the concept, the energy companies of the allied countries will receive non-discriminatory access to the partners’ oil infrastructure, will be able to purchase oil and oil products without quantitative restrictions at a market price without export duties, which will be formed, including at exchange trading,” Sargsyan said about basic principles concepts on the example of the oil market.
Thus, according to the EAEU agreement, the common gas market means a transition to equal prices and ensuring equal access to the gas transportation infrastructure for those who are not the owners of this GTS. Also, the gas concept proposes to consider the possibility of using national currencies in mutual settlements between the EAEU countries, as well as to make it convenient to access natural monopolies.
Benefits from single market
Vladimir Putin assessed the benefits of creating a single hydrocarbon market in the EAEU space. “Today we will take another step towards creating a single hydrocarbon market by 2025, about which we talked and argued a lot at the time. We will adopt relevant documents that provide for equal conditions for competition throughout the entire EAEU, which will give a cumulative effect in the gas industry of more than $1 billion, and in the oil industry - up to $8 billion a year,” the President said, speaking at an expanded meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council .
The single oil and gas market will allow the EAEU countries to move away from strict binding to world energy prices and make the market more competitive, Vladimir Abramov, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics of the Mineral Resources Complex of the Russian State Mineral Resources Complex, believes. “In the presence of a more competitive oil market, producers will to a greater extent dictate a price on the market that is more objective and based on their costs for the extraction of raw materials,” he told the MIR 24 ontelevision channel.
“The system of markets for oil and oil products of the EAEU is not only a mechanism for managing the turnover of some commodity mass, but at the same time a tool for maintaining the exchange rate national currency, the volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves and the implementation of social programs, "&B - says the report of experts from the UN Institute for Economic Strategies of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Formation of a common market for oil and petroleum products at the NNPP: the foundation of an allied island of stability in the raging world ocean of global speculation." &B The authors of the report are professors and academicians - General Director of the Institute for Economic Strategies of the UN RAS Alexander Ageev, his deputy Evgeny Loginov and general director Agencies for New Strategies Alexander Raikov.
What is the common market for oil and petroleum products? In essence, it is about creating integrated electronic trading, where Russia and other members of the EAEU will be able to establish for buyers their own conditions for the supply, transportation and storage of hydrocarbons within the boundaries of the single economic space of the EAEU. The single market can be easily integrated into the world market by granting access foreign companies for auction.
The EAEU single hydrocarbon market increases the efficiency of the process of "monetization" of added value from the partners' raw material exports, experts say.
The main thing is that in the future the single market will smooth out price fluctuations. “A particularly important advantage of the proposed mechanism is the ability to withstand price fluctuations in external markets in relation to the EAEU, that is, world markets. These jumps can be either accidental (combination of factors) or deliberately organized (for speculative and/or geo-economic purposes),” the report notes.
Given the importance of revenues to the budget from the sale of hydrocarbons, we are talking about ensuring the national security of friendly countries through the joint regulation of the common market for oil and petroleum products by the EAEU member states, professors and academicians believe. "These pluses outweigh any minuses," & B - they are sure.
The same mechanisms should be implemented when creating a single gas market.
Russia haste is unprofitable
Why are the EAEU countries in no hurry to create a single hydrocarbon market? Because each of the parties receives both benefits and the need to sacrifice something for the sake of a common idea and future benefits.
“The single hydrocarbon market is equally beneficial and disadvantageous for everyone. Each participating country will have to sacrifice short-term losses for medium-term gains. It is precisely because of this, in my opinion, that this project will stall for a long time,” says Natalya Milchakova, deputy director of the Alpari analytical department.
For example, a single gas market, as well as electricity (it is planned to be created by 2019) means uniform rules, tariffs and prices for all three countries, and this applies not only to exports, but to the situation within the EAEU. The single market will allow Russia to avoid "gas conflicts" like what is currently observed with Belarus.
Belarus wants Russian gas for it to be exactly the same price as inside Russia, minus delivery costs. Moscow believes that Minsk should still pay for the transportation. And a single gas market for Belarus now would be most welcome. Russia, on the other hand, hopes that by the time the common market is formed in nine years, it will even out the cost of gas within Russia, making them equal in profit compared to export ones. Then, in terms of gas prices, Minsk will gain little from participation in this union. However, non-participation will not give any advantages either.
The same story is typical for the oil market. Domestic oil prices are lower than export deliveries. Conventionally, if we now create a single oil and gas market and cancel export duties for partners, then this will mean continuous losses for Russia - and huge profits for Belarus. Therefore, Moscow needs time to smooth out these price inflections.
If Belarus hopes to be able to import gas and oil from Russia at lower prices, then Russia and Kazakhstan, as exporters of hydrocarbons, pursue completely different goals. &B First of all, they are interested in easy access to each other's infrastructure.
For example, Milchakova explains, if a single gas market were created now, Russia would automatically get access to the Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline. Since 2014, Kazakhstan has been supplying blue fuel through its pipeline to China, but it does not have enough gas to fill its capacity to the full by 10 billion cubic meters, only half. Gazprom has something to load the infrastructure with. On the other hand, when creating a common market, Kazakhstan will automatically get access to Gazprom's infrastructure, as well as access to European market gas.
“But Kazakhstan does not have sufficient volumes of gas to become a competitor of the Russian Federation in the European market,” said Milchakova. On the other hand, Gazprom is certainly a competitor to Kazakhstan in China and Southeast Asia. “As long as it has not built a pipeline infrastructure for deliveries to China, Gazprom could fully load the Kazakh pipeline and at the same time displace Turkmenistan as a significant player in the Southeast Asian gas market,” the expert argues.&B&B
Finally, the effect of billions of dollars will come from additional common infrastructure for the transportation and storage of hydrocarbons. In addition, thanks to the unified rules of the EAEU, the same Belarus will no longer be able to re-export oil products behind Russia's back, without paying a duty to Russia, and selling them to the West under the guise of chemicals. “The task of developing common rules in the EAEU is precisely to prevent such gray schemes and exclude the possibility of such a re-export of someone else's goods by any of the members of the Union. This is achievable through the establishment of a single pricing mechanism and uniform tariff regulation rules,” says Milchakova.

Recently, a terrible mess has been going on in the Russian economy: the central bank is juggling rates, excessive volatility, devaluation of the ruble. Availability for business credit money decreased many times. Almost all sectors of the economy are in the red. Increasing the number.

Such negative consequences Russian economy led to a drop in the price of oil. Economy of Russia raw materials, the prices for this energy carrier affect all spheres of the economy and business.

And what kind of ruble does Russia need? Strong or weak? At what ruble will the economy grow? Let's try to figure this out. To do this, we will conduct a small analysis of the global oil market today.

Why is the price of oil falling

There are three main markets in the world: American, Chinese and European. Let's take a closer look at each of them.

American hydrocarbon market

There are four main suppliers in the USA: Saudi Arabia, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela. Over the past 10 years, the share of Canada has grown quite strongly: if in 2004-2005 it barely reached 15%, now it is about 37%.

However, 10 years ago, Saudi Arabia was selling in America as much as Canada - 14-15%. Approximately since 2010. the share of Arabian oil in the US decreased from 18% to 16%.

This is mainly due to an increase in the cost of transportation, since the share of African countries has also decreased significantly: Nigeria occupied about 10% in the United States, and now it sells less than 1%, Angola had a share of just over 4%, and now it sells, barely reaching 1, five%.

It's the same with Middle East oil: Iraq and Kuwait's sales are about 4-5%.

Against this background, the US government is stimulating the development national companies(for example, shale. Yes, shale oil exists and technologies for its extraction are improved every year, reducing the cost), reducing the share of exporters.

Thus, the US market for exporters is very narrowed and those operators that can provide the lowest cost of transportation have a competitive advantage. The Saudis, compared to other operators in the United States (as well as African and other Middle Eastern countries), do not have such competitive advantages. But the territories bordering the United States have such an advantage.

The contraction of the US oil market, for the previously mentioned reasons, has a negative impact primarily on the sale of Arabian oil.

Chinese hydrocarbon market

In China, Saudi Arabia is the main supplier. The Saudis occupied a share of about 21% in China, now about 16%. About the same amount, together, is occupied by Iraq and Oman. Iran - about 6%, Angola - about 10% and Russia about 8%. The remaining share is shared by other operators, which we will not dwell on.

However, now in China there is a significant slowdown in economic growth, China is on the verge of a recession. This means that the Chinese economy will not need so much energy, so China's need for this will definitely decrease gradually.

The only plus is that there is no danger of Iranian oil entering China (as it will be on the European market), in China it is being sold with might and main.

Thus, the Middle East operators occupy a dominant position in China, and even Angola sells more than Russia. The decrease in demand for energy carriers in the Chinese market hits first of all the dominant operator - Saudi Arabia, as China uses this opportunity and will try to reduce the volume of this dominant.

What will happen to the share of Russian oil in China? We will talk about this a little lower, but for now let's analyze the EU.

European hydrocarbon market

The largest operators in the EU are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway and, oddly enough, Nigeria (has increased its share very much). Kazakhstan also steadily sells to Europe. Significantly reduced share of Lebanon and Iran (we all know why).

However, in Europe the market is gradually shrinking. Firstly, the EU is actively pursuing a policy of energy security and diversifying suppliers (perhaps this is due to the increase in Nigerian oil in the EU). Secondly, fundamental changes are taking place in the EU related to the implementation of energy efficiency policies and the replacement of traditional energy sources with renewable ones.

Because of this, in 10 years, the share of the Saudis in Europe has decreased from about 10% to 8%. This is about the same as what Nigeria sells to the EU. Slightly more than Saudi Arabia, Norway supplies its oil to the European market.

However, the main supplier to Europe (so far) is Russia. In 2009-10, sales to Russia reached as much as 33%, and now they have dropped to 29%.

In this regard, for all operators in the EU, there is a danger from Iran, from which sanctions are being lifted. There is a strong possibility that Iran will become another major operator in Europe. And then, we can say with confidence that the share of Russian oil will become even smaller - after all, Europe, as I said earlier, is getting rid of dominant suppliers, so Iranian oil in Europe will directly affect both the price (slightly) and the volume (significantly) Russian black gold sold to Europe.

So, what do we have in the bottom line? Russia does not supply anything to the USA. Supplies to China will be reduced due to the Chinese recession and the contraction of the Chinese oil market. The European market is shrinking for all suppliers, and for Russia, Iranian oil is of particular danger, after the supply of which, almost certainly, the share of Russia will become smaller - Europe is struggling with dominant suppliers.

As we can see, the main supplier in the world is Saudi Arabia. Over the past 10 years, the Saudis have invested heavily in the modernization of oil production and refining. Because of this, and also because of the large volume of production, Arabian oil has a very low cost.

In addition, the reserves of Saudi Arabia are huge. Therefore, in order to squeeze out small suppliers from all 3 markets and put inefficient operators at a disadvantage, the Saudis decided to resort to dumping. They can afford it due to their large reserves, high-tech mining methods and, as a result, low cost.

In the US market, with their low cost, the Saudis compensate for the costs of transporting suppliers bordering the US. In this way, they can take a share of Angola and their Middle Eastern neighbors - Kuwait and Iraq, and also encroach on the share of Mexico and Venezuela.

In China, Arabian oil already occupies a dominant position. Price cuts at the peak of the recession in China, in the Chinese market for the Saudis will come in handy. They will try to squeeze out Chinese market Iraq because Iraq is new to the Chinese market.

Russia will be the worst. Iran declares diversification in supplies, and since Iran sells quite a lot on the Chinese market, after the lifting of sanctions, all the surplus will be sent to Europe. And this plays into the hands of the Europeans, because, as I pointed out earlier, the EU has decided to get rid of its dominant suppliers (energy security).

Besides, Russian production is not as technologically advanced as in Saudi Arabia. The cost of money for Russian exporters is much higher than for American or Middle Eastern ones. Due to sanctions, the availability of cheap loans for Russian companies, is limited, so there are no funds to hedge and replenish funds during the period low prices.

In this regard, Russia will gradually lose the European market and due to natural market reasons, Russian hydrocarbons will be replaced by Arabian, and, in the future, Iranian.

Thus, since Saudi Arabia is the world's largest supplier, lower prices play into the hands of the Saudis. Due to the volume of oil they sell, they will easily survive the price drop, and time will work for Saudi Arabia. Small suppliers can leave the market, and not efficient suppliers who cannot match the cost of oil produced by the Saudis will lose market share significantly.

This means that due to the contraction of the world market, lowering the price of this energy carrier is beneficial for Saudi Arabia, as the largest, most efficient and high-tech oil supplier. We must prepare for a protracted period of low oil prices also because the oil market itself is shrinking, so Saudi Arabia, taking the opportunity, will squeeze out competitors.

Ruble's exchange rate. Dollar exchange rate. What to expect

So, we see that the prospects for Russia, as a country with raw materials, are very vague. Due to low prices for hydrocarbons, the country's budget will be in deficit. But what about import substitution? After all, now, in theory, it will be profitable to produce domestically. Not really.

What we see now is high volatility. Oil prices jump, as a result, the ruble either strengthens or weakens. It may or may not be an element of a hydrocarbon price war. Commodity countries are very dependent on energy prices. Large investors leave the country, and speculators come in, who borrow money in the West at 11%, and on fluctuations they have from 12 to 25%. But it's not an investment.

When the ruble begins to weaken, then our central bank throws all efforts (and huge money) on its strengthening and new speculative madness begins.

Any fluctuations, any volatility makes the business freeze and wait for the time when the situation stabilizes. Those. business does not invest (invests) in development. In the absence of outside investors, such an economy begins to stagnate.

In my opinion, the Central Bank is artificially strengthening the ruble in a decrepit economy. It's like giving a patient painkillers instead of actual treatment.

For example, the Central Bank gives money to banks to invest in business and subsidizes interest rates. Giving loans to businesses in a crisis is a very risky business. That's why commercial banks use available funds for the purchase of currency in order to resell it when the exchange rate rises.

Those. in fact, banks, with the money of the Central Bank, are working against the ruble. In my opinion, the Central Bank does not sufficiently exercise appropriate control in this part, since the money of the Central Bank should not fall on currency market in no case. Public money should be used to refinance specific investment projects, and now public money is turning into speculative money, instead of boosting the economy with investments.

The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank do not need to artificially strengthen the ruble. It is necessary to create conditions in the economy for its natural strengthening. When the ruble strengthens naturally, through GDP growth, then it will be possible to predict and indirectly control the future growth of the Russian economy.

Let's summarize. High volatility may provoke an oil price corridor from $25-30 to $40-60 per barrel. In this regard, 1 dollar may cost 100 rubles as early as December, if all oil suppliers do not agree among themselves.

In Russia, the situation may worsen. According to various estimates, inflation is already at 16-20%. Product inflation 20-30%. Almost all sectors of the economy have a negative trend. With a continued price of $20-30 per barrel, most of the various assets in Russia will become cheaper. This means that there may be a sale of "unprecedented generosity" - enterprises, real estate, etc. (meaning business objects) can be bought 10-20 times cheaper than their real value.

If we want to start the economy and import substitution, it is urgent to change the ongoing economic policy. To launch import substitution, it is necessary to import technologies and equipment from abroad.

Instead, in Russia, the decline in foreign trade 35%. For business, in the medium and long term, a strong ruble is needed (read - certainty, stability), and now, to increase profitability and launch import substitution, we need technology and a weak ruble. Otherwise, the import substitution program will not work due to the banal lack of money, including from the population.

Earlier analytical articles.

Modern industry is characterized by an increased need for energy. Raw materials, namely fuel hydrocarbons, have become the main sources of energy, and therefore the most important link in the industry. These circumstances explain the ever-increasing exploitation of oil and gas fields. Raw materials form the basis of the country's infrastructure - after all, we should not forget about transport that runs on fuel produced from hydrocarbons. That is why every country needs raw materials that can meet all its needs. If there are no resources, the economy will collapse.

The main hydrocarbons in the world markets are oil and gas, so we will consider them as the main hydrocarbons in the world market. Oil is a non-renewable resource. Explored oil reserves amounted (in 2008) to 210 billion tons (1200 billion barrels), unexplored - are estimated at 52-260 billion tons (300-1500 billion barrels). By the beginning of 1973, the world's proven oil reserves were estimated at 100 billion tons (570 billion barrels) (data on oil reserves published abroad may be underestimated). Thus, explored reserves have been growing in the past. Currently, however, they are declining.

In the last decade and a half, the world oil market has witnessed an increase in the annual growth rate of oil consumption. Between 1991 and 2000 this figure increased by 9.8 million barrels per day, and in 2001-2008 by 6.3 million barrels per day. Of course, along with the increase in oil consumption, there was an increase in oil production.

As a rule, the main oil reserves are under the control of state oil companies. This is explained by oil industry- the most important sector of the economy for countries that receive the main income from oil exports. The funding of the budget and the opportunity to develop other sectors of the economy depend on the funds received. Every year, fewer and fewer new reserves of easily accessible oil are discovered in the world. The number of discovered deposits in the world increased in the 60-70s, then began to decrease somewhat, and the decrease in the growth of large deposits was especially noticeable. And today, more than 80% of the world's production comes from deposits discovered before 1973. Recently, the leaders in oil production are Saudi Arabia, which accounts for about 13% of the produced volume, and Russia, whose share in world production is more than 12% per year. Oil prices, like any other commodity, are determined by supply and demand. If supply falls, prices rise until demand equals supply. The peculiarity of oil, however, is that in the short term, demand is malelastic: rising prices have little effect on demand. A rare car owner will start riding the bus due to rising gasoline prices. AT medium term(5-10 years), however, the situation is different. Rising oil prices are forcing consumers to buy more fuel-efficient cars, and companies to invest in more fuel-efficient engines that use less fuel to heat new homes. Due to this, the reduction in oil production leads to an increase in prices only in the first years, and then oil prices fall again. In the long term (decades), demand is continuously increasing due to an increase in the number of cars and similar equipment. Relatively recently, China and India have become the world's largest oil consumers. In the twentieth century, the growth in demand for oil was balanced by the exploration of new deposits, which allowed to increase oil production. However, many experts believe that in our century oil fields exhaust themselves, and the disproportion between the demand for oil and its supply will lead to a sharp rise in prices - an oil crisis will come. An oil crisis means that oil production will peak and decline irreversibly, while oil prices will rise more and more. The well-known American geophysicist and economist King Hubbert predicted the oil crisis in 2004, however, due to various circumstances, a special embargo, that is, a ban on oil consumption, which was imposed by the OPEC countries (we will discuss them below) in 1979, the oil crisis was postponed to 2010 year. Some believe that the oil crisis has already begun, and the rise in prices in 2003-2008 was a sign of it. Now, after falling oil prices during the economic crisis, oil prices are rising again.

A significant role in the formation of oil prices is played by wars, weather disasters, and political statements. An example of this is the war in Iraq, or the recent accident in the Gulf of Mexico, when there was a huge oil leak, which served to increase its price.

Now oil is hovering around $80 per barrel. The decline in oil prices affects many oil exporting countries, including Russia. Many of them were running budget deficits and were forced to revise their spending based on the new established oil price. However, by 2010, the price of oil had risen again to its usual level. It is highly probable that oil prices will continue to rise in the future.

The average price of oil can always be found in the so-called “OPEC basket” (OPEC countries will be discussed below). The OPEC basket includes Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Basra Light (Iraq), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Es Sider (Libya), Girassol (Angola), Iran Heavy (Iran), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Merey (Venezuela) , Murban (UAE), Oriente (Ecuador), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Saharan Blend (Algeria). The brand of oil comes first, and the country that represents this brand is written in brackets. It is at the prices of these brands that the average annual cost of oil is calculated.

Also, to determine the average price of oil, the well-known Brent brand is used, which is accepted as a reference in terms of its quality, properties and composition, which is the most optimal in terms of processing and production of petroleum products. The oil produced at a particular field, of course, differs from the standard, and its price depends on the magnitude of this difference. That is, the worse the oil, the farther it is in terms of quality, properties and composition from the Brent standard, the lower its price. In turn, the price Brent oil is just a standard. But, as a rule, the differences in price from other brands are not very large. The graph shows the cost of Brent oil since 1998. The absolute leader in oil consumption is the United States economy. On the one hand, this speaks of high level development of industry, and on the other - about " oil dependence" countries. The United States produces only 8% of the world's production per year, and consumes more than 24%. This imbalance in the economy of the superpower still leads to upheavals on a global scale. In second place in terms of oil consumption is China (9%), in third place is Japan (6%). Russia shares fourth place with Germany and India (more than 3%).

Over the past twenty years, the global gas market has grown by about 6% per year, and in 2008 more than 26% of the gas consumed crossed national borders. World proven reserves of natural gas as of 2008 amount to 185.02 trillion cubic meters. cubic meters However, potential gas reserves are estimated much higher. The US Geological Survey, in addition to the explored and proven world gas reserves, also includes undiscovered reserves - 137.5 trillion cubic meters. cube m., reserves of hard-to-reach deposits - 85.2 trillion. cube m., estimates the increase in the reserves of existing gas provinces - 66.7 trillion. cube m. The US Geological Survey estimates the total potential reserves of natural gas (in excess of proven) at 289.4 trillion. cube m. Today, the economy for natural gas is increasing, which creates the preconditions for the expansion of imports. Traditional external exporters will increase their supplies to the European market. We can see that new routes are being built to bring gas to importing countries from exporting countries. For example, future analysis European projects shows that the share of traditional suppliers, as well as the actual gas production, will decline. This will happen due to the gradual drying up of gas wells in Europe. Countries with large gas reserves, on the contrary, will increase gas production in order to meet the demand developing countries, so the total world production will increase, despite the decline in oil production from individual countries.

World natural gas prices vary depending on regional features and circumstances, but the generally accepted gas price that is used as a reference in financial contracts is the price that is used on the New York commodity exchange(NYMEX). Its official name is Henry Hub Natural Gas. The price for this contract is based on supplies from the Henry Hub gas storage facility in Louisiana.

It should also be noted that the unified world natural gas market as such has not yet been formed. The main obstacles to the creation of a global gas system are related to the long distances of gas supplies and the high specific gravity transport infrastructure in economic indicators natural gas. Thus, in the cost of natural gas supplied to Western Europe from Norway, the share of trunk and distribution networks accounts for up to 70% of all costs. With comparable transportation capacities, the transport part of the cost of gas, due to the lower flow density, turns out to be almost two times higher than that of oil. Because of this feature, the price in different regions is not the same.

Currently, there are several large regional gas markets in the world, among which are the American, European, Middle Eastern, African, the market of the Asia-Pacific region and the market of the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Baltic countries.

The main and largest exporter of pipeline gas is currently Russia, which provides more than 26% of world exports. In 2008, the ten largest exporting countries - Russia, Canada, Norway, Algeria, Qatar, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Malaysia, the United States and Nigeria supplied more than 78% of natural gas to the world market.

As a manuscript

MIZRINA EKATERINA ANATOLYEVNA

THEORETICAL PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPMENT

OF THE WORLD HYDROCARBON MARKET

Specialties 08.00.01 - Economic theory;

08.00.14 - World economy

ABSTRACT

dissertations for a degree

candidate economic sciences

Samara 2009

The work was done at the Samara State University of Economics

Scientific adviser - candidate of economic sciences, associate professor

Official opponents: Doctor of Economics, Professor

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor

Leading organization – Moscow State Institute

electronics and mathematics

(Technical University)

The defense will take place on June 23, 2009. at 12 pm at a meeting of the dissertation council D 212.214.01 at the Samara State University of Economics at the address: st. Soviet Army, 141, room. 325, Samara, 443090

The dissertation can be found in the library

Samara State University of Economics

Scientific Secretary

dissertation council

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF WORK

Relevance of the chosen research topic. AT modern economy The issues of availability of energy raw materials, the exhaustibility of hydrocarbons, their high cost, as well as the unpredictability of the development of the global hydrocarbon market are extremely acute. For many centuries, one energy raw material has replaced another, but what underlies this substitution and according to what laws the change of raw materials occurs has not been studied. Moreover, the regularities of the change in energy raw materials or, more correctly, the energy structure, have not been considered and studied. The study of this problem opens up great prospects in the field of forecasting the duration of this or that energy mode and, therefore, makes it possible to more carefully plan both the economies of individual countries and the world economy as a whole.

At present, the world is on the verge of changing one energy mode to another. However, the lack of knowledge of this problem does not allow us to unambiguously understand how the world should react to the ongoing changes, whether it is worth worrying about the exhaustibility of oil or its price, which in reality means only the end of its era, or should society perceive this as a new round of development of the world market. energy resources, which does not threaten mankind with any global cataclysms and, on the contrary, is associated with the emergence of new, more energy-intensive raw materials, environmentally friendly, and, therefore, the same events can be interpreted as positive for all mankind.

The world economy is currently in a structural crisis. There are many views on this issue. The author of the dissertation believes that one of the causes of the crisis is the change from the oil to the gas mode, and the change in the energy mode is always accompanied by a crisis, since the crisis in this case means the lowest point of the energy wave.

The problems of the global energy market cannot but affect every person on Earth, which means that their relevance will most likely always take place.

The degree of scientific development of the problem. Currently, a lot of research is being carried out on the world energy market. Numerous works of Russian and foreign economists are devoted to questions of theory and practice:,. The author finds the deepest study of the problems of the world hydrocarbon market in the works of Professor, Doctor of Economics, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Yuri Anatolyevich Plakitkin. It is in his work "Patterns of development of world energy and their impact on the energy of Russia" that an exhaustive analysis of the evolution of world energy, the patterns of its development in the 21st century is given, the world energy patterns are studied in detail, an analysis of the oil industry in the context of a change in the world energy pattern is given, an assessment is given efficiency innovative development world energy.

Also very deep Scan The problem under study is presented in the work "Oil and gas in the modern economy". The monograph outlines the main trends in the formation of the world oil and gas market, the forecast for the development and consumption of primary energy carriers. The features of the functioning of the oil and gas market in the context of global energy transformations are considered. In another work by the same author, "The Market for Oil and Petroleum Products at the Turn of the 21st Century," the results of a study of the market transformation of the oil sector are presented.

However, in modern Russian and foreign literature, there are insufficiently analyzed theoretical aspects development of the world market of energy resources. The oil and gas industry is undergoing fundamental changes today. In this regard, it became necessary to study state of the art basic sectors of the world economy - gas and oil. Based on the analysis of statistical material, an assessment was made of the development of the studied industries, the current trends in their development were determined, the features of the change in the energy mode were studied, and the cyclical nature of the development of the hydrocarbon market was discovered.

Purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of the study is to identify possible ways for the development of the energy market, to determine the theoretical basis for the development of the world energy market, as well as the patterns by which this market operates with the subsequent possibility of predicting it and minimizing potential risks. In accordance with this goal, the following tasks are set and solved in the dissertation:

Studied the current state of the energy market;

Systematized various forecasts, prospects of the studied market;

A theoretical substantiation of the given forecasts is found;

A model for the development of the hydrocarbon market was built on the basis of the chosen theory;

The end of the era of oil was revealed based on the model obtained;

On the basis of this model, the duration of subsequent energy modes is determined;

The place of Russia in the world market of hydrocarbons was determined;

An assessment of the current structural crisis is given in terms of changing energy raw materials and diversifying the entire production.

Subject of study. The subject of the study is the patterns, trends and prospects of the global hydrocarbon market, the impact of certain market parameters on the global economy, as well as forecasting the development of the world economy with a decrease in the role of oil or its complete replacement, i.e. with a change in the energy structure.

Object of study. The object of the study is the world hydrocarbon market itself, its cyclical nature, the stages of market development in order to determine, on the basis of theoretical and practical material, the dominant resource and the duration of the existence of each subsequent energy mode.

Field of study. The dissertation research was carried out within the framework of paragraph 1.1. " Political Economy": the impact of new technological structures on the processes of formation and functioning of economic structures and institutions; resource economics; item 1.3. Theory business cycles and crises; item 2.1. General trends and patterns of the economic history of mankind (periodization of economic history, features and stages of individual historical eras, the cyclical nature of economic processes, their country and regional limitations or globalization), specialty 08.00.01 - Economic theory; as well as within the framework of paragraph 1. The world economy, its structure and modern tendencies development and p. p. 4. Theories of development of the world economy and international economic relations. Analysis and evaluation of modern concepts of the specialty 08.00.14 - World economy Passports of specialties HAC (economic sciences).

Methodological and theoretical foundations of the study. The methodological basis of the study is the systematic and concrete historical approach of foreign and Russian scientists, set out in the scientific literature. The theoretical basis of the study is the theory of cycles, namely the theory of business, or innovation, cycles
J. Schumpeter, as well as the theory long waves. The dissertation uses the works of leading domestic and foreign economists. In the course of the study, the following were studied: general and special monographic literature, materials of scientific conferences and seminars, legislative and other regulations, international practice regulation of raw materials markets. The study used methods of system analysis, abstract-logical, chronological, retrospective, statistical, graphical methods of analysis and extrapolation method.

Information base research compiled statistical and analytical materials Federal Service state statistics, Russian and foreign monographic literature, publications in periodicals. The materials of the World trade organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, statistical reviews of world energy (Statistical Review of World Energy), information from official world energy agencies, etc.

Research hypothesis. There is a close relationship between the change in energy patterns in the economy and the theory of business or innovation cycles by J. Schumpeter. This assumption is based on the fact that the global hydrocarbon market has a cyclical nature of development. According to the author's point of view, the reason for changing one energy mode to another is the emergence of innovation, that is, new, more energy-efficient raw materials. In Schumpeter's theory, the formation new wave also driven by innovation. Based on this similarity, the author projects the theory of innovation cycles on the energy market and suggests that on the basis of this theory, it is possible to identify patterns in the development of the world energy market, establish the duration of each subsequent cycle, and obtain tools for forecasting this market.

Defense provisions.

The global energy market develops cyclically. The energy market is characterized by wave-specific parameters: the growth phase is replaced by a phase of decline and crisis

According to the theory of world energy patterns, humanity in its development has already gone through two energy patterns or two complete cycles - wood (the period before 1860 - before the start of the industrial era in Europe) and coal (years - the period of large-scale industrialization of the planet).

Change of ways was accompanied by innovation. According to the theory of innovation waves by J. Schumpeter, each innovation cycle is caused by the emergence of a new product, a new market or a new raw material.

The change of the innovation wave occurs due to the inability of the dominant resource to satisfy existing needs. Replaced with quality New Product. In this case, the innovation is more energy-intensive raw materials.

The development of the oil and gas industry was determined in the 20th century. a whole era in which the economic, political, national and religious interests of many countries of the world intersected. There is a dynamic growth in the volumes of real consumption of hydrocarbon raw materials.

Gas is becoming more and more important. This is the most environmentally friendly product. The dynamics of world gas production over the past ten years has been characterized by stable growth rates. There is a convergence of oil and gas markets.

The growth of natural gas consumption in the world at the turn of the millennium is caused by two major factors: economic and environmental.

At present, the world lives within the framework of the oil order, which, by all indications, is close to completion. It should be noted that the change of energy patterns does not at all lead to the disappearance of the main energy carriers of the past. They continue to be used in the global economy, but their importance is steadily declining. The likely onset of the gas energy mode is confirmed by the growing scope of gas in the global economy.

The analysis carried out shows that in there will be fundamental changes in world oil production: the growth rate of production from positive will turn into negative. This means that the world oil industry will move from the phase of its growth into the phase of a systemic decline in production volumes. Oil will be replaced by gas. The displacement of oil by other types of energy raw materials is an irreversible process in the long run. Outside of the oil order, there will be no critical changes in the production of other energy carriers. However, the alignment of forces on the world stage will change. Perhaps Russia will increase spheres of influence on the grounds that it is the leader in gas production.

Scientific novelty research. The dissertation developed conceptual provisions that reveal the features of the functioning and development of the global hydrocarbon market. More specifically, the scientific novelty is confirmed by a number of obtained results.

Within the specialty 08.00.01 - Economic theory:

1) the cyclical nature of the world energy market has been established, which makes it possible to determine the patterns of functioning of this market. The author has studied a long time period from the moment the energy industry appeared to the present day and revealed the cyclical nature of the development of this market;

2) the concept of "energy wave" is introduced as the life span of one energy mode. The novelty of this paragraph lies in the fact that the author sees the cyclical nature of the development of the hydrocarbon market in view of the fact that the energy market is characterized by wave-specific parameters, namely: the growth phase is replaced by a phase of decline and crisis. Accordingly, the author considers the definition “energy wave” to be more correct, and not “energy mode”, since the concept introduced by the author most fully reflects the internal content of the world hydrocarbon market;

3) a model for the development of the energy market was developed based on the theory of innovative waves by J. Schumpeter, the sixth and seventh innovative waves were completed, and the fourth and fifth energy waves were built on their basis. Thus, the author, using the extrapolation method, determined the duration of subsequent energy waves, which is of great interest, since it allows using these data to choose tactics and policies during the period of changing the energy pattern and for the future, taking into account the information received;

4) the reason for the change in the energy structure was identified. Under it, the author understands the category of "energy innovation". The concept is also introduced by the author. This approach does not contradict, but confirms the correctly chosen theoretical basis. So, according to the innovation theory of J. Schumpeter, the change of the innovation wave occurs due to the inability of the dominant resource to satisfy existing needs. This resource is being replaced by a qualitatively new product. In this case, the innovation is a more energy-intensive and energy-efficient raw material that can meet increasing energy needs;

5) the dependence in the development and change of innovative cycles, or technological structures, and energy waves has been revealed. The author compared the periods of change of technological structures and energy waves in time, established the existing dependence and presented it in her dissertation research.

Within the specialty 08.00.14 - World Economy:

1) the nature of the cyclical nature of the energy market is revealed, which consists in the fact that each subsequent energy cycle in time lasts less than the previous one. The author, on the one hand, sees the influence of world scientific and technological progress as the reasons for the acceleration of each subsequent way of life, and, on the other hand, an increase in demand for energy and energy-efficient technologies;

2) by calculation, an approximate date for the end of the oil period, falling on the 20-30s, was obtained. current century. The author considers this point to be extremely important from the point of view of the world economy, since it is from this period that it will move into the post-industrial, or seventh, hypercycle;

3) an assessment of the current development of the world energy industry is given and future trends in the development of the global hydrocarbon market are described, taking into account the change in the energy pattern.

Theoretical and practical significance of the research. The main provisions and conclusions of the dissertation work can be used in the educational process of universities in the disciplines "World Economy", "International Economic Relations", "Economic Theory", "Location of the World Economy", etc. The conclusions and materials of the work can be used when writing teaching aids, for scientific, practical and bibliographic purposes, are included in lecture courses, seminars.

The formulation of the problem proposed by the author qualitatively changes the idea of ​​a shortage of raw materials. The author does not try to refute the idea of ​​limited resources in general and oil and gas in particular. The dissertation aims to prove that the concern about the limited nature of this type of raw material is greatly exaggerated. The author uses the world historical experience of changing such an important type of raw material as coal, and tries to explain and identify trends in the decline in the role of oil, and then gas in the world economy, based on the patterns of the phases of development of any product. The application of the developed recommendations and proposals will make it possible for the economies of countries to adapt to the conditions of the new energy order, will allow foreseeing future fundamental changes and timely diversifying raw material reserves and preparing production for the introduction of new modern technologies. The results of the study can be used in research institutions involved in the study of relevant issues, used by organizations whose activities are directly related to the situation on the world energy market - oil, gas companies, as well as other participants.

Approbation of work. The main provisions of the dissertation work were reported at a meeting of the Department of Theoretical Economics and International Economic Relations of the Samara State Economic University, at a number of theoretical seminars.

Dissertation structure. The main text of the dissertation, consisting of an introduction, two chapters and a conclusion, is presented on 143 pages. The bibliographic list of references includes 134 titles. The work contains 7 tables, 12 figures.

RESEARCH

In the introduction the relevance of the research topic is substantiated, the state of knowledge of the problem is characterized, the goal and objectives, the object and subject of research are stated, the practical significance of the results obtained is revealed, and the scientific novelty of the work is also characterized.

In the first chapter "Theoretical questions studies of economic cycles "conceptual ideas about the concept of cyclicity, theories of cyclicality are stated, the features of J. Schumpeter's business cycles, which are theoretical basis when studying the world hydrocarbon market.

The dynamics of the formation and development of the world economic system shows that all economic processes and phenomena in public life are subject to periodic fluctuations and wave-like changes: ups and downs, surges and depressions, revivals and crises. At the same time, it is precisely due to cyclicity that the development and strengthening of economic dynamics in time and space, the natural course of the historical development of events and phenomena is carried out. This statement is recognized by the majority of economists and scientists both abroad and in Russia. Controversy and main disagreements are manifested only in views on the causes and features of the formation of cycles, the duration of their course and the mechanism of contradictions.

There are several types of economic cycles, which are sometimes called waves. It is difficult to single them out because of the multitude of indicators, because of the temporary blurring of the boundaries between them. The so-called long waves (cycles) have a length of 40-60 years. The development of the theory of long waves began in 1847.

It will not be an exaggeration to say that a special place belongs to the development of the theory of cyclicity. The recognition of his merits in this area is that many foreign scientists call long waves after him. back in the 20s. 20th century opened a wide discussion on the problems of long waves.

The theory of long waves was supported by the famous Swiss economist J. Schumpeter, who, being an adherent of the theory of cycles, pointed to the existence of 50-60-year periods of changes in the economy. Each of the waves, in his opinion, marked a certain periods inventions, major scientific discoveries or changes in energy raw materials.

It is natural that each of the peaks of the cycles corresponds to certain, often sharp, socio-economic changes in the life of society. So, 1914 and 1946. mark the world wars, 1964 - the deployment of energy, raw materials, environmental, currency crises. The economic decline of 1974 (due to the global oil crisis) was also characterized by a decline industrial production and a decrease in export-import deliveries of products.

At the same time, despite the economic crises, regular positive changes occur from cycle to cycle. They are associated not only with the improvement of the productive forces of society, with the development of new technologies, but also with a change in the structure of employment, with the emergence of new types of human activity and areas of employment. All this indicates that cyclicality is nothing but a manifestation of the general form of macroeconomic dynamics.

The definition of these cycles as J. Schumpeter's waves suggests that the basis of their duration and specificity is the availability of relevant scientific and technical discoveries and the existing opportunities for their application in practice. It should be noted that each of the technological solutions, about which in question, should have a time-varying efficiency of their use and a limited period of application in general. These restrictions are a fairly objective factor and are dictated by constantly changing business conditions in market economy(changes in the ratios of aggregated indicators, the evolution of consumer preferences, the real availability of economic resources, social, environmental and other indicators).

Schumpeter's definition of innovation (innovation) is extremely capacious and includes, in addition to technical innovations, also organizational, managerial and marketing innovations, new markets, new sources of supply, financial innovations and new combinations of resources.

On the basis of the presented and other theories, Russian economists developed the concept of technological modes. For our analysis, it is imperative to introduce this category, so in the future the author draws a relationship between technological structures and innovation waves. The concept of a technological order (in its modern meaning) was introduced into science. Technological order - a group of technological sets connected with each other by the same type of technological chains and forming reproducible integrity. Glazyev and other economists identify 5 technological modes, or, in Western terminology, - long cycles industry. Each such cycle begins when a new set of innovations is available to manufacturers. The beginning of the modern fifth cycle is associated with the development of new means of communication, digital networks, computer programs and genetic engineering. The beginning of each cycle is characterized by the rise of the economy, while the end is characterized by its decline (the Great American Depression is an excellent example of this).

If we analyze the change of technological modes in a historical context, we can see that the time of the domination of modes is steadily decreasing. If the first lasted about 60 years, then the fifth, which we are witnessing, according to most forecasts, will last only about 30 years and end in the 20s. XXI century It is easy enough to explain the reason for the reduction in the time of the domination of ways. The fact is that in the middle of our century, the innovative activity of both individual entrepreneurs and companies, as well as entire states, became very active.

The current economic crisis developed countries due to the transition from the fifth techno-economic order to the sixth. The transition from one way of life to another is a multifaceted structural process. As a result, these countries are undergoing a profound transformation of production, technical, organizational and managerial structures, and the nature and functioning of the economic mechanism is changing. Not just one or a few industries are being transformed, but the entire economic complex, the production sphere, energy, transport, communication infrastructure, organizational and managerial methods and structures, mechanisms of economic regulation are being transformed.

According to many experts, by 2030 the fifth technological order will be replaced by the sixth, which will change the current understanding of the factors affecting economic development. The sixth techno-economic mode will be the basis of a new upward wave of the innovation cycle in the 21st century.

The sixth technological order will be based on such industries as genetic engineering, nanotechnology, medical research, computer science and space research, telecommunications and the creation of new composite materials. The successful implementation of these scientific directions will be able to cause a new technological breakthrough in the development of mankind and solve urgent socio-economic problems at the level of the world community.

A retrospective analysis of the development of society allows us to state that there have been 5 industrial revolutions in the world, each of which is characterized by a change in the technological structure and an increase in the number of discoveries compared to the previous one.

The sequence of events in the world technical revolutions associated with fundamental scientific discoveries that opened the way for the creation of fundamentally new technologies, brought humanity to the modern, fifth technological order. The core of this order is made up of the electronic industry, computer and fiber-optic technology, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, biotechnology and information services. key factor for this core is the development of microelectronic components.

According to the theory of innovation waves by J. Schumpeter, each innovation cycle is caused by the emergence of a new product, a new market or a new raw material. By the emergence of new raw materials we will understand the change in the energy structure, i.e. the emergence of a new dominant energy resource.

The change in the energy pattern is not only a matter of technology, but also one of the many cyclical phenomena in the economy. The history of the development of world energy shows that the change of the leading energy carriers of the world economy has occurred before. So, according to the theory of world energy patterns, humanity in its development has already gone through two energy patterns, or two complete cycles: wood (the period before 1860, i.e., before the start of the industrial era in Europe) and coal (g. - the period of large-scale industrialization of the planet). The change of ways was accompanied by a fundamental technological innovation: the transition from charcoal to stone is associated with the introduction of steam engines, from coal to oil - with the introduction of internal combustion engines. The first and most primitive way of obtaining energy was firewood and waste products. And despite their simplicity, they were in demand for the longest time, that is, the so-called wood-burning cycle turned out to be long. An explanation of this phenomenon will be given below.

However, the limited use, low calorific value led to a new energy order, or, in other words, to a new cycle - to the reorientation of the world economy towards energy production through coal. But only one century coal held its position. The rapid growth of oil production in comparison with coal in the second half of the 20th century. was due to a number of its physical and technological advantages.

In the second chapter"Methodological problems of the development of the world hydrocarbon market based on theories business cycle"Studied such problems of the market as the cyclical development, the change of energy modes, and, accordingly, the forecasting of the development of oil, gas and subsequent modes.

At present, the world lives within the framework of the oil order, which, by all indications, is close to completion. According to the theory of innovative waves by J. Schumpeter, the beginning of a new energy order should be accompanied by the introduction of qualitatively new technologies - innovation. It should be noted that the change in energy patterns does not at all lead to the disappearance of the main energy carriers of the past (wood, coal). This rule applies not only to energy resources, but also to any technology, goods, services. They continue to be used in the global economy, but their importance is steadily declining. The likely onset of the gas energy mode is confirmed by the growing scope of gas in the global economy. Already today, gas has become one of the key energy carriers of the world energy sector, due to its exceptional heat and power and environmental characteristics.

As for the gas energy mode, there is a possibility that it will not last long. If we consider the theory of innovation cycles by J. Schumpeter as the theoretical basis of this study, then we can say that each new mode has an ever shorter period of its existence. Reducing the time of domination of modes, and Schumpeter's innovation cycles themselves, is associated with an increase in the role and importance of innovation in economic development and with an unprecedented activation innovation activities both individual companies and entire states.

Thus, it can be assumed that the era of gas will last even less than the era of oil. According to the phases of consumption, after 2020, either a phase of stabilization of oil consumption should begin, or, most likely, a phase of a decline in oil consumption, and a rather sharp one at that.

In any case, two global reasons speak in favor of the latter trend: the depletion of productive oil reserves and the introduction of new energy technologies, i.e., according to Schumpeter, the emergence of innovations that reorient world demand for the use of other types of fuel. If these two reasons are simultaneous, then we can talk about a change in the energy structure and, accordingly, the end of the oil era by 2020.

The analysis carried out shows that in there will be fundamental changes in world oil production: the growth rate of production from positive will turn into negative. This means that the world oil industry will move from the phase of its growth into the phase of a systemic decline in production volumes.

Oil will no longer be able to cover the ever-increasing world demand for energy, and therefore, we can state the end of the "era of oil" as the dominant energy carrier. During the 2020s the share of oil resources in total consumption will be equal to the share of gas resources. Outside of the oil order, there will be no critical changes in the production of other energy carriers.

The change in the energy structure is an irreversible and necessary process, since as a result of it for humanity, if they do not lose their relevance, then they will definitely reduce their severity of the problem of environmental pollution and exhaustibility of resources. Accordingly, we can talk about fundamental changes in the entire world economy, which will have to solve other issues, such as the reorientation of production, its diversification, and possibly a change in the positions of a number of countries due to a change in the energy structure, the emergence of new leaders.

The transition to the so-called post-industrial society, where the primary vital needs of people are practically satisfied, will make it possible to restrain the development and even curtail energy-intensive industries (metallurgy, building materials, etc.), which were the basis industrial society. They are being replaced by high-tech industries, for which the resources are mainly knowledge, and not energy and raw materials. Meanwhile, improvements in energy conversion efficiency and end use through new technological and management solutions have already made a significant contribution to slowing down the growth of energy consumption and will have an even stronger impact in the future.

The change in energy patterns is accompanied by two patterns:

In each existing energy mode, the subsequent dominant energy carrier is rapidly developing (its share in total consumption is growing);

The change in energy patterns is accompanied by an increase in the energy value of the dominant energy carrier.

The evolution of energy patterns is closely related to the growth of the energy value of the energy carrier, defined as the amount of energy (in tons of standard fuel) contained in a metric ton of energy carrier.

The change from wood to coal was accompanied by an actual doubling of energy value. The change from coal to oil was accompanied by a more than 2-fold increase in energy value.

The energy value of gas is more than 3 times higher than the energy value of coal.

The change from one energy mode to another is caused by the advent of innovation. So, the innovation in this case is more concentrated energy contained in a metric unit of energy carrier weight.

Calculations show that the length of each energy structure is approximately 50...100 years. The gas order will last approximately 80 years. At the same time, in late XXI century, there will be a change in the gas mode to a non-hydrocarbon mode, which actually accumulates the entire variety of non-hydrocarbon energy sources: nuclear, solar, geothermal, etc.

The change in the energy structure is a matter of technology, and therefore, it is not without reason that the link is made specifically to the innovation cycles of J. Schumpeter, since much attention is paid to the change of technologies in his work "Business Cycles".

However, anticipating the onset of a new energy order, it is necessary to take into account the corresponding changes. The transition to a gas energy mode will be accompanied by the formation of a global gas market. Moreover, the presence of the world market is a necessary condition for such a transition. Now there is no world gas market, there are only regional ones - North American, European, Asian, South American. But the processes of formation of the world gas market are actively underway, and Russia should be ready for this. The formation of the world market implies an increase in the share of alternative transport modes in gas trade. And the only alternative to pipeline transportation for natural gas is the transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Pipeline transport does not imply competition, but ties the supplier and the consumer to each other. Therefore, a direct consequence of the increase in the share of gas in the consumption of primary energy sources is the formation of a world gas market similar to oil, which means an increase in the role of LNG.

LNG technologies allow the delivery of other valuable hydrocarbons contained in produced natural gas along with energy gas. Russia, being the world leader in the extraction and export of natural gas, lags far behind in the field of technologies related to the production and transportation of LNG.

Today, Russia concentrates the most important levers for managing the gas market - resources and methods of their transportation. This circumstance makes Russia a truly significant player in the still emerging global gas market.

With proper use of their energy trump cards and development advanced technologies Russia will be able to become an energy superpower, actively participate in the management of the world energy market and play on an equal footing with Western partners.

ON THE THEME OF THE DISSERT

Articles in publications determined by the HAC

to publish scientific research results

1. Mizrina, E. A. The mechanism of regulation of the world market of energy resources [Text] / // Vestn. Samar. state economy university - Samara, 2008. - No. 2 (40). - S. 67-,5 print. l.

2. Mizrina, E. A. Cyclical development of the world hydrocarbon market [Text] / // Ekon. Science No. 6 (43). - S. 403-408. -
0.75 pc. l.

3. Mizrina, E. A. The world economy against the backdrop of a change in the energy structure [Text] / // Vestn. Samar. state economy university - Samara, 2008. - No. 8 (46). - S. 60-,7 print. l.

Publications in other publications

4. Mizrina, E. A. Globalization of the world economy against the backdrop of a change in the energy pattern [Text] / // university science and problems of socio-economic development of regions: Mater. All-Russian. scientific and practical. conf. May 22-23, 2008 - Cheboksary: ​​CHKI RUK, 2008. - P. 170-1.6 pc. l.

5. Mizrina, E. A. Energy efficiency [Text] / // Problems of improving the organization of production and management industrial enterprises[Text]: interuniversity. Sat. scientific tr. / [editor:, (responsible ed.) and others]. - Samara: Samar Publishing House. state economy un-ta, 2008. - Issue. 1, part 1. - S. 244-2.6 print. l.

Signed for publication on May 21, 2009.

Format 60×84/16. Boom. writing white Offset printing.

"Times New Roman" typeface. Volume 1.0 pc. l.

Circulation 150 copies. Order No.

Printed in the printing house of SSEU.

MOSCOW ORDER OF LABOR RED BANNER PHYSICAL AND TECHNICAL INSTITUTE

(State University). __________________________________________________

Gryaznov A.A.

Analysis of the hydrocarbon market in Central and South Asia.

Specialization: "Energy Development and Environmental Protection".

Head of specialization

Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences A.A. Makarov

Scientific adviser, Ph.D. V.L. Likhachev

Reviewer.

Moscow 2000

1. Introduction.

1.1. Analysis of changes in the structure of the world market for hydrocarbons (oil and gas), and the place of the Central South Asian (CSAz) region in this market.

1.2. Analysis of existing market development forecasts.

1.2.1. Own production.

1.2.2. Consumption.

1.2.3. External supplies.

2. Model development.

2.1. Analysis of possible approaches to the choice of a method for solving the problem.

2.2. Model building.

2.3. Results and their analysis.

3. Literature.

1.1. Analysis of changes in the structure of the world hydrocarbon market, and the place of the Central South Asian (CSAz) region in this market.

World demand for primary energy carriers increased by 17% from 1993 to 2000 (from 11,470 to 13,400 million toe). According to analysts' forecasts, this trend will continue in the future - from 1993 to 2050, hydrocarbon consumption will more than double.

Hydrocarbons account for over 62% of produced primary energy carriers - let's look at the importance of oil and gas for global energy in more detail.

Natural gas plays an important role in the global fuel and energy balance. Occupying only 5% of the planet's recoverable predicted fossil fuel resources, due to its high quality characteristics, it already provides 21% of the primary energy resources produced in the world and, according to various forecasts, its share will increase to 24-26% in the next decade.

Along with natural gas, demand for oil is also expected to increase. According to IEA forecasts, it is possible to increase world oil consumption from 4645 mln. 7%.

Table 1.1.1. World production of primary energy resources, million here. /%.

A special place in the world market of primary energy carriers is occupied by the countries of the Central Asian region - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan. Although in 1998 their share in the world consumption of primary energy resources amounted to only 3.7%, it is difficult to overestimate the impact of the policies pursued by these countries on the formation of the energy market not only in the region, but also in the whole continent in the future. Big influence of the region under study on the process of development of world energy can be explained by taking into account the following aspects:

The hydrocarbon reserves of Central and South Asia exceed 30% of the world.

Due to their geographical position, the countries of the region are favorably located between the largest consumers of hydrocarbon raw materials - Europe and Asia (China, India).

The United States has declared the region "a zone of its vital interests." Many American energy companies have not only expressed a desire to be present in the Caspian market, but are already developing its oil and gas fields today.

Table 1.1.2. Proved reserves of hydrocarbons and their multiplicity of the countries of Central and South Asia at the end of 1998

Table 1.1.3. Production, consumption and import of natural gas by the countries of the Central Asian region in 1990-1998, billion m 3 .